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    U.S. payrolls grew by 256,000 in December, much more than expected; unemployment rate falls to 4.1%

    Nonfarm payrolls surged by 256,000 for the month, up from 212,000 in November and above the 155,000 forecast.
    The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, one-tenth of a point below expectations. A broader jobless measure moved down to 7.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point and the lowest since June 2024.
    Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month, which was in line with forecasts, but the 12-month gain of 3.9% was slightly below the outlook.
    Stock market futures plunged after the report while Treasury yields soared as traders price in a lower probability of Fed rate cuts this year.

    Job growth was much stronger than expected in December, likely providing the Federal Reserve less incentive to cut interest rates this year.
    Nonfarm payrolls surged by 256,000 for the month, up from 212,000 in November and above the 155,000 forecast from the Dow Jones consensus, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

    The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, one-tenth of a point below expectations. An alternative measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons moved down to 7.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point and the lowest since June 2024.
    Stocks plunged plunged after the report while Treasury yields soared as traders price in a lower probability of Fed rate cuts this year.
    “This is a hot report,” said Dan North, senior economist for North America at Allianz Trade. “You have to think that [Fed Chair] Jerome Powell is breathing a sigh of relief in the sense that his job just got a little bit easier. Inflation hasn’t been moving anywhere for months, so there’s no incentive to cut rates. Now you get this [jobs report] so you don’t need to cut rates to stimulate the economy.”
    The report brings to a close a year in which employment grew each month, though inconsistently and at times raising questions over whether a recession loomed. However, the final two months showed a labor market still operating at strength as the Fed contemplates its next moves on monetary policy.

    One area that Fed officials have stressed to not be a source of inflation is the labor market, and wages grew slightly less than expected.

    Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month, which was in line with forecasts, but the 12-month gain of 3.9% was slightly below the outlook and indicative that wage inflation at least is becoming less of a factor. The average workweek again held steady at 34.3 hours.
    “You’re never going to hear me complain that we got 250,000 jobs,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “I think it’s a strong jobs report. It makes me further comfortable that the job market is stabilizing at something like the full employment rate.”

    Job growth came from the familiar sources of health care (up 46,000), leisure and hospitality (43,000), and government (33,000).
    Retail also saw a sizeable gain, up 43,000 after losing 29,000 in November heading into the holiday shopping season. The sector saw payroll growth of 2.2 million for the full year, down sharply from the 3 million gain in 2023.
    Revisions for prior months were less substantial than has been the recent trend. The October count saw an upward change of 7,000 to 43,000, while the November number was cut by 15,000 from the prior estimate.
    At their December meeting, Fed officials deemed the labor market mostly healthy though slowing. The Fed voted at the meeting to lower its key borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point while indicating a slower pace of reductions ahead.
    Markets expect the Fed to hold pat at the meeting later this month, with futures pricing after the jobs report swinging to the expectation of just one cut this year. The market-implied probability of a single cut increased to 68.5% after the jobs report, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

    Goolsbee said he still expects rate cuts this year as long as the data flow stays consistent.
    “The surprisingly strong jobs report certainly isn’t going to make the Fed less hawkish,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “All eyes will now turn to next week’s inflation data, but even a downside surprise in those numbers probably won’t be enough to get the Fed to cut rates any time soon.”
    Central bankers have expressed concern lately with the pace of inflation, which has held above the Fed’s 2% target largely because of stubbornly high housing costs as well as some goods prices.
    The household report, which the BLS uses to calculate the unemployment rate, presented an even stronger jobs picture. That count increased by 478,000 on the month , as the labor force grew by 243,000 and the share of working age people either holding jobs or looking for employment held steady at 62.5%.
    Full-time employment increased by 87,000, while part-time workers surged by 247,000. The level of unemployed workers fell by 235,000.
    The duration of unemployment edged higher to 23.7 weeks, the highest level since April 2022. However, those reporting out of work for 27 weeks or more declined to 1.55 million, down 103,000.

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    Retailers may be taking a more staggered approach to holiday hiring.

    Every year, retailers race to hire workers to staff their stores and distribution centers to meet the demand that comes with millions of Americans shopping for Christmas and other winter holidays.This seasonal hiring is often seen as a measure of the health of the retail industry and the U.S. economy more broadly.On Wednesday, November data released by the Labor Department showed that seasonal hiring in 2024 in the retail trade sector was lower than a year earlier. But that may also reflect changes in how companies go about it.The struggle to hire workers as the economy reopened in late 2020 and early 2021 led several retailers to start spreading out their hiring throughout the year, relying less on bringing on help rapidly in the weeks immediately before the holiday shopping season. Other retailers have said that they focus on offering their current workers more shifts before hiring seasonal workers.Ahead of the 2024 holiday shopping season, major retailers like Target and Bath & Body Works said they expected their hiring of seasonal workers to be on a par with the year before. Macy’s said it aimed to hire 31,500 workers, slightly down from its target in 2023. Amazon said in October that it would hire 250,000 people to support its fulfillment and transportation operations, in line with its goal from the previous year. At Amazon, the jobs included full-time, part-time and seasonal positions.For retailers, seasonal hiring does not take place just within stores. During the Covid pandemic, as a response to the boom in e-commerce shopping, retailers increasingly focused on hiring people to work within distribution centers that handled online orders.Seasonal hiring has implications beyond December, as many retailers convert a certain percentage of temporary workers to permanent positions. Gap Inc., which also owns Banana Republic and Athleta, said one in 10 of its seasonal workers in 2024 was hired into a full-time position. More than half of Target’s seasonal workers were hired for full-time positions after the 2023 holiday shopping season. More

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    Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence?

    Economists have long helped to shape policy on issues like taxes and health care. But flawed forecasts and arcane language have cost them credibility.Partway through a panel discussion at a recent economics conference in San Francisco, Jason Furman, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, turned to Kimberly Clausing, a former member of the Biden administration and the author of a book extolling the virtues of free trade.“Everyone in this room agrees with your book,” Mr. Furman said. “No one outside of this room agrees with your book.”The academics and policy wonks gathered in the hotel conference room laughed, but the comment captured something real: After decades of helping to shape policy on weighty matters like taxes and health insurance, economists find that their influence is at a low ebb.Free trade is perhaps the closest thing to a universally held value among economists, yet Americans just voted to return to office a president, Donald J. Trump, who has described tariffs as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” and who often seems to view trade through a mercantilist lens that the field has considered outdated since the days of Adam Smith.The president he will replace, Joseph R. Biden, was hardly a free-trade zealot himself: He kept in place many of the tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed in his first term, and moved in his final days in office to block the takeover of U.S. Steel by a Japanese company — a decision his own economic advisers opposed.It isn’t just trade.Economists overwhelmingly favor immigration as a source of innovation and growth, yet Mr. Trump wants to seal the border and deport potentially millions of unauthorized residents.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Chose 8 Economic Experts Who Will Defend Tariffs and Lower Taxes

    President-elect Donald J. Trump has moved beyond the team-of-rivals approach from his first term and chosen economic aides who will defend tariffs and tax cuts.Alan RappeportAna Swanson and President-elect Donald J. Trump put economic policy at the center of his campaign and, in assembling his economic team, has turned to a group of Wall Street executives, economists, lawyers and academics to help carry out his plans to cut taxes, impose tariffs and slash regulations.In contrast to his first term, when Mr. Trump installed advisers who had disparate views about areas like free trade and tariffs, the men the president-elect has selected this time around have, at least for now, professed to be in sync with his agenda.Still, it remains to be seen how well his advisers work together and whether those with more traditionally conservative views will be willing to go along with Mr. Trump’s unconventional approach to economic policy.Scott BessentTreasury SecretaryStefani Reynolds/BloombergWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Friday’s jobs report could present a mixed view of the labor market. Here’s what to expect

    Economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report a gain of 155,000 in nonfarm payrolls in December, a step down from the surprising 227,000 increase in November.
    Details of the report will be key, with some on Wall Street expecting that the number could come in a bit weaker than the consensus.
    Goldman Sachs, for one, estimates that payroll growth will come in at just 125,000, with the unemployment rate drifting up to 4.3%.

    Signage at the New York Public Library’s annual Bronx Job Fair & Expo at the Bronx Library Center in the Bronx borough of New York, US, on Friday, Sept. 6, 2024. 
    Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The December jobs report is likely to provide only limited clarity on where the labor market is headed, with experts differing on how pronounced a slowdown there is in hiring.
    From a consensus view, economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday morning to report a gain of 155,000 in nonfarm payrolls, a step down from the surprising 227,000 increase in November but about in keeping with the four-month average. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%.

    However, the details of the report will be key, with some on Wall Street expecting that the number could come in a bit weaker, depending on how seasonal trends and other factors play out.
    “We’ve seen a little bit of the softening, and I think we’ll continue to see that, but it’s still a good [labor] market overall,” said Maureen Hoersten, chief operating officer and interim CEO at LaSalle Network, a Chicago-based staffing firm. “Things are leveling off a little bit. People are still a tad cautious, trying to figure out this new year and the new economic climate and political climate.”
    On average, the economy in 2024 added about 180,000 jobs a month through November, though the data has been volatile and somewhat confusing lately. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Thursday that labor market reports “have become increasingly difficult to interpret” due to measurement challenges, which have included a surge of new workers and low response rates on surveys.
    The December report also could be harder to judge depending on how the hiring of holiday workers affects the numbers.
    Goldman Sachs, for one, estimates that payroll growth will come in at just 125,000, with the unemployment rate drifting up to 4.3%.

    “Our forecast reflects a rebound in the labor force participation rate and middling household employment growth amid more challenging job-finding prospects,” the Wall Street bank said in a note. “We expect deceleration in job growth in non-retail sectors, particularly professional services and construction, to more than offset stronger retail hiring this month.”
    Similarly, Citigroup is predicting just 120,000 new jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate, which economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote “should remind markets that the labor market has not stabilized and is continuing to soften. Risks are balanced to an even softer reading.”
    However, Hoersten said she thinks that once some of the current volatile factors subside, companies will continue adding head count, even if at a gradual rate. A Bureau of Labor Statistics report Tuesday put job openings in November at a six-month high of just over 8 million, while layoffs were little changed and the quits rate, a measure of worker mobility, declined.
    At the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, officials noted an “ongoing gradual easing in labor market” conditions, but saw “no signs of rapid deterioration,” according to minutes released Wednesday.
    In a recent business survey, LaSalle Network found that 67% of small and midsize companies plan to increase head count in 2025, down from 74% the year before. The survey also found that salary increases are expected to be smaller and hybrid working is likely to remain prevalent as a wedge to compete against larger companies for workers.
    Average hourly earnings are expected to show a 0.3% increase in December and an annual rate of 4% from a year ago, little changed from November.
    “Right now, I think things are just going to stay fairly flat overall, nothing drastic one way or the other,” Hoersten said. “But I do believe it’s still a good, strong market, and companies just needed to get past the little bit of a crazy climate over the past couple months and get back to the steady state.” More

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    Can Low Unemployment Last Under Trump?

    Hiring has slowed, but joblessness remains at levels defying economic norms. Big policy changes under a new administration could test that resilience.For a time, not too long ago, it was the central question animating economic forecasts and bets laid by investors in financial markets: Will the U.S. economy avoid a recession?Now, for many in the business world, that question feels almost passé, part of an earlier, more fretful era of narratives.After a superlative run of hovering below 4 percent for more than two years, the unemployment rate — at 4.2 percent — has ticked up since last spring. But only by a bit so far; the December reading will come on Friday. While hiring has slowed, layoffs remain low by long-term standards.Inflation, having calmed substantially, is still being eyed warily by the Federal Reserve, which began steeply raising interest rates in 2022 to combat price increases. But at three consecutive meetings in the final months of 2024, the Fed slightly lowered the key interest rate it controls — an attempt to surgically take some pressure off commercial activity and support employment.Predictions of a downturn, once omnipresent, were mostly absent from the year-ahead forecasts that major financial firms typically send around to clients over the holidays.Near the start of 2024, Jeremy Barnum, the chief financial officer at JPMorgan Chase, told listeners asking about U.S. economic vitality during a conference call, “Everyone wants to see a problem — but the reality is we aren’t seeing any yet.”

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    Unemployment rate
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsKarl RussellWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    White House Ignites Firestorm With Rules Governing A.I.’s Global Spread

    The tech industry is fighting new regulations, expected soon, that aim to keep the cutting-edge technology in the United States and allied countries.The next big fight over offshoring is playing out in Washington, and this time it involves artificial intelligence.The Biden administration, in its final weeks in office, is rushing to issue new regulations to try to ensure that the United States and its close allies have control over how artificial intelligence develops in the years to come.The rules have touched off an intense fight between tech companies and the government, as well as among administration officials.The regulations, which could be issued as early as Friday, would dictate where American-made chips that are critical for A.I. could be shipped. Those rules would then help determine where the data centers that create A.I. would be built, with a preference for the United States and its allies.The rules would allow most European countries, Japan and other close U.S. allies to make unfettered purchases of A.I. chips, while blocking two dozen adversaries, like China and Russia, from buying them. More than 100 other countries would face different quotas on the amount of A.I. chips they could receive from U.S. companies.The regulations would also make it easier for A.I. chips to be sent to trusted American companies that run data centers, like Google and Microsoft, than to their foreign competitors. The rules would establish security procedures that data centers would have to follow to keep A.I. systems safe from cybertheft.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Banks Are Racking Up Wins Even Before Trump Is Back in White House

    Banks are on a winning streak, one that’s poised to intensify as President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office.Biden-appointed regulators at the Federal Reserve and other agencies presided over a relatively fruitless era of bank oversight. They tried to enact stricter rules for the nation’s biggest banks, hoping to create a stronger safety net for the financial system even if it cut into bank profits.But the rules were considered so onerous — including by some top Fed officials — that they died of their own ambitions.As proposals stalled, the foundation for existing bank oversight became increasingly shaky thanks to bank-friendly courts. During his first term, Mr. Trump appointed a slate of conservative judges who then slowly but significantly shifted the legal environment against strict federal oversight.The result? Big banks have been notching major victories that could allow them to avoid regulatory checks that were drawn up after the 2008 financial crisis, when weaknesses at the world’s largest lenders nearly toppled the global economy.And with Mr. Trump once again poised to run the White House, analysts predict that the regulations and supervisory practices that are supposed to prevent America’s biggest and most interconnected financial institutions from making risky bets could be further chipped away in the months ahead.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More