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    Trump reportedly considering important alteration to tariff plans

    President-elect Donald Trump is considering a tariff plan that will narrow the focus to a select set of goods and services, according to a Washington Post report.
    Trump, however, disputed the report in a post on Truth Social, saying “That is wrong.”

    U.S. President-elect Donald Trump looks on during Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center on December 22, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. 
    Rebecca Noble | Getty Images

    President-elect Donald Trump is considering a plan that still would apply tariffs to all nations but narrow the focus to a select set of goods and services, according to a Washington Post report.
    The new approach to tariffs likely wouldn’t be as powerful as Trump’s earlier ideas but still would cause major changes to global commerce, the paper said, citing people familiar with Trump’s thinking.

    Trump, however, disputed the report in a post on Truth Social.
    “The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don’t exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong,” he wrote.
    The report comes amid concerns that the incoming president’s insistence on imposing universal tariffs of 10% or 20% and specifically targeting China and Mexico would cause another spike in inflation.
    During Trump’s first term, duties on a wide range of imports did little to raise prices broadly and in fact were kept in place when Joe Biden took over as president. However, economists worry that conditions are different now and aggressive tariffs would have a greater impact.
    The Post report said it’s still not clear which sectors would be affected by the plans, though early discussions are looking at various industrial metals, medical supplies and energy.
    The U.S. is running a $74 billion monthly trade deficit that exploded during the Covid pandemic.

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    UK firms plan price rises as business confidence falls to lowest level since 2022 ‘mini-budget’, survey finds

    Confidence among U.K. firms has tumbled to its lowest level since the market-rocking “mini-budget” crisis of fall 2022, according to a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce.
    The trade group said sentiment had “declined significantly” in its largest poll since the Labour government’s debut budget last October, which included a hike in the amount many employers pay out in National Insurance (NI), a tax on earnings. 
    The BCC cited firms in hospitality, manufacturing, construction and health-care expressing worries about how they would cover additional costs and saying they would likely scale back investment.

    UK firms are planning to raise prices to cover higher tax payouts as confidence among businesses tumbled to its lowest level since the market-rocking “mini-budget” crisis of fall 2022, according to a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce.
    The trade group said sentiment had “declined significantly” in its largest poll since the Labour government’s debut budget last October, which included a hike in the amount many employers pay out in National Insurance (NI), a tax on earnings. 

    The BCC said 63% of businesses cited tax as a worry in the survey, up from 48% in the third quarter. More than half (55%) said they expect prices to go up in the next three months, primarily due to higher labor costs.
    The percentage of companies saying they expected turnover to increase in the next twelve months fell to 49%, from 56%. Concerns about inflation and interest rates remained roughly steady.
    The BCC cited firms across hospitality, manufacturing, construction and healthcare expressing worries about how they would cover additional costs and saying they would likely scale back investment.

    “We recognize what [Reeves] said, that she’s got to increase taxes to fill her black hole, but what we need to see her do now is mitigate against that. What are we going to do to drive the economy?” Shevaun Haviland, head of the BCC, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
    “Businesses are going to have to shoulder this tax increase, but what we want to see her do is act, and they need to act quickly. It’s important that they’re putting strategies in place, industrial strategy, trade strategy, infrastructure plan, for later on this year, but we need to see action now.”
    U.K. borrowing costs have climbed following the October 2024 budget, exceeding the levels they spiked to following the “mini-budget” of September 2022, which saw then-Prime Minister Liz Truss announce sweeping, uncosted tax cuts.
    However, economists say the recent rise in bond yields is not equivalent to the surge seen in 2022 as the moves have been significantly less dramatic and the macro backdrop — including a cooling of inflation — has changed.

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    Trump’s Falsehoods Aside, China’s Influence Over Global Ports Raises Concerns

    The president-elect inaccurately said that Chinese soldiers operate the Panama Canal. But China’s strategic positions in shipping worry Washington officials.It was a Christmas message that no one saw coming.On Dec. 25, President-elect Donald J. Trump went on his social media platform, Truth Social, to wish a “Merry Christmas to all, including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal.”Mr. Trump’s claim is false. The Panama Canal is operated by an agency of the Panamanian government, not by Chinese soldiers. In a news conference, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama disputed Mr. Trump’s statements, saying that there were “no Chinese in the canal” beyond those in transiting ships or at the visitor center.“There is absolutely no Chinese interference or participation in anything that has to do with the Panama Canal,” Mr. Mulino said.While Mr. Trump’s claim was inaccurate, the growing influence of Chinese companies and the Chinese government over shipping and global ports, including the Panama Canal, has become a concern for U.S. officials.The Chinese government has invested heavily in building ports throughout the world. And given that China is the world’s biggest exporter, private Chinese companies now play a major role in shipping and port operations, giving them significant influence over the movement of global goods and strategic positions from which to monitor other countries’ activities.Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the Trump-Vance transition team, said in a statement that “Chinese control of the Panama Canal absolutely poses a national security threat to the U.S.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Weighs Ban on Chinese Drones, Citing National Security Concerns

    The Commerce Department requested that private companies comment on the implications of the rule by March. The final decision will fall to the Trump administration.The Biden administration said on Thursday that it was considering a new rule that could restrict or ban Chinese drones in the United States out of national security concerns.In a notice, the Commerce Department said the involvement of foreign adversaries — notably China and Russia — in the design, development, manufacture and supply of drones could pose “undue or unacceptable risk to U.S. national security.”The notice requested private companies to comment on the scope and implications of the rule by March 4. The decision of what restrictions to impose, if any, on Chinese and Russian drones will fall to the Trump administration.China and Russia have shown a willingness to compromise U.S. infrastructure and security through cyberespionage, the Commerce Department said, adding that the governments could leverage their laws and political situations to “co-opt private entities for national interests.”Beyond the use of drones by hobbyists, the devices are employed in a variety of U.S. industries. They help farmers monitor crops and spray for pests, inspect pipelines for the chemical industry, survey bridges and construction sites, and aid firefighters and other emergency responders.But drones have evolved over the past decade to include sophisticated cameras, receivers and artificial intelligence abilities, fueling concerns that they could be turned into a useful tool for an adversarial government.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Richard A. Easterlin, ‘Father of Happiness Economics,’ Dies at 98

    He put forth the so-called Easterlin paradox, finding that the richer you are doesn’t mean the more satisfied you’ll be with your life.Does getting a year-end bonus or raise make you happier? Does the lift it gives you tend to quickly fade, especially if others around you also won out in the annual compensation sweepstakes?If the answer is that a boost in income doesn’t greatly improve your sense of well-being, then you are a proof point of the Easterlin paradox, the economic theory that more money, over the long run, won’t buy more happiness.The paradox was put forth by Richard A. Easterlin, an economist, a demographer and a seminal figure in the field of academic research into happiness. The University of Southern California, where he was an emeritus professor, called him the “father of happiness economics” in announcing his death. He died at 98 on Dec. 16 at his home in Pasadena, Calif.Mr. Easterlin’s work challenged both conventional wisdom and a core economic tenet that economic growth in a society leads to a general improvement in feelings of well being.Economists, policymakers and ordinary citizens had long taken it as a given that increasing a nation’s gross domestic product — its total economic output — improves its people’s happiness.But in the 1970s, Mr. Easterlin, then at the University of Pennsylvania, published research showing that even though incomes in the United States had risen dramatically since World War II, Americans said in surveys that they were no happier.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Debate Over U.S. Sanctions on Russia For Ukraine War Intensifies

    The president-elect has said he will use sanctions sparingly while vowing to end the war in Ukraine, renewing questions over their efficacy.Thousands of far-reaching sanctions have been imposed by dozens of countries on Russian banks, businesses and people since Moscow ordered tanks to roll across the border into Ukraine in the winter of 2022.Now, more than 1,000 days later, as President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to take office, questions about the sanctions’ effectiveness — and future — are expected to come under renewed scrutiny.Mr. Trump has stated, “I want to use sanctions as little as possible.” And he has made clear that there will be a shift in American policy toward Ukraine, having promised to end the war in a single day.Experts believe that sanctions and continued military aid are almost certain to be bargaining chips in any negotiations.So how valuable are the sanction chips that Mr. Trump will hold?The answer is hotly debated.Predictions in the early months of the war that economic restrictions would soon undermine President Vladimir V. Putin’s regime or reduce the ruble to “rubble” did not pan out. Mr. Putin remains entrenched in the Kremlin, and his forces are inflicting punishing damage on Ukraine and gaining on the battlefield.Yet the idea that economic sanctions could bring a quick end to the war was always more a product of hope than a realistic assessment, said Sergei Guriev, a Russian economist who fled the country in 2013 and is now the dean of the London Business School.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Chinese Companies Have Sidestepped Trump’s Tariffs. They Could Do It Again.

    The companies have found plenty of new channels to the U.S. market — demonstrating the potential limits of the tariffs Donald Trump has promised to impose.After President Donald J. Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese bicycles in 2018, Arnold Kamler, then the chief executive of the bike maker Kent International, saw a curious trend play out in the bicycle industry.Chinese bicycle factories moved their final manufacturing and assembly operations out of China, setting up new facilities in Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia and India. Using parts mostly from China, those companies made bicycles that they could export directly to the United States — without paying the 25 percent tariff had the bike been shipped straight from China.“The net effect of what’s going on with these tariffs is that Chinese factories in China are setting up Chinese factories in other countries,” said Mr. Kamler, whose company imports some bicycles from China and makes others at a South Carolina factory.Pushing those factories into other countries resulted in additional costs for companies and consumers, without increasing the amount of manufacturing in the United States, Mr. Kamler said. He said he had been forced to raise his prices several times as a result of the tariffs.“There’s no real gain here,” said Mr. Kamler, whose bikes are sold at Walmart and other retailers. “It’s very inflationary.”Arnold Kamler said he had to raise prices at Kent International several times as a result of President Donald J. Trump’s 2018 tariffs.Kate Thornton for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Canadian Ministers Meet Trump Aides at Mar-a-Lago to Discuss Border, and Tariffs

    President-elect Donald J. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian exports unless the country stops the flow of migrants and fentanyl to the U.S.Two top Canadian ministers met on Friday with members of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s circle in Florida about a border security plan that Canada hopes will ward off Mr. Trump’s threats to impose economically damaging tariffs on imports from the country. But the ministers returned home without any assurances.The meeting was characterized in advance as an attempt to build on a dinner Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had with Mr. Trump at Mar-a-Lago over the Thanksgiving weekend as well as on a recent telephone conversation between members of Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet and Thomas D. Homan, Mr. Trump’s designated border czar.Mélanie Joly, Canada’s foreign minister, and Dominic LeBlanc, its finance minister, arrived in Florida on Thursday evening for the session with Howard Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s choice for commerce secretary, and former Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, the president-elect’s pick to run the Interior Department who would also coordinate energy policy.Mr. Trump has said he will impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada when he takes office in January if the country does not reduce the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the United States. Such a move could be devastating for Canada, whose economy depends heavily on exports to the United States. But on at least one occasion, Mr. Trump has suggested that his tariff plan may have less to do with border security than with his desire to eliminate the $50 billion trade deficit with Canada. Oil and gas exports from Canada account for most of that trade imbalance. Without them, the U.S. generally has a trade surplus with Canada.Jean-Sébastien Comeau, a spokesman for Mr. LeBlanc, described the Mar-a-Lago session as a “positive, productive meeting” and said that the two nominees “agreed to relay information to President Trump.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More