Evelyn Reynolds

More stories

  • 113 Shares149 Views

    in Economy

    Job Hunting Is a Challenge for Recent College Grads

    Unemployment is still low, but job seekers are competing for fewer openings, and hiring is sluggish. That’s a big turnaround from recent years.For much of the last three years, employers were fighting one another for workers. Now the tables have turned a bit. Few employers are firing. Layoff rates remain near record lows. But fewer employers are hiring.That has left job seekers, employed or unemployed, competing for limited openings. And younger, less experienced applicants — even those with freshly obtained college degrees — have been feeling left out.A spring survey of employers by the National Association of Colleges and Employers found that hiring projections for this year’s college graduating class were below last year’s. And it showed that finance, insurance and real estate organizations were planning a 14.5 percent decrease in hiring this year, a sharp U-turn from its 16.7 percent increase last year.Separately, the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the overall pace of hiring in professional and business services — a go-to for many young graduates — is down to levels not seen since 2009.For recent graduates, ages 22 to 27, rates of unemployment and underemployment (defined as the share of graduates working in jobs that typically do not require a college degree) have risen slightly since 2023, according to government data.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares189 Views

    in Economy

    BLS Data on Jobs and Consumer Prices Faces a Test of Trust

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks prices and employment, faces scrutiny after several missteps. Some questions have gone unanswered.It has been a rough year for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The agency — which produces key numbers on inflation, unemployment and other aspects of the economy — has made a series of missteps in recent months, including a premature release of the Consumer Price Index.That has prompted questions about how the bureau, which is part of the Labor Department, shares information and whether it has been giving an unfair advantage to Wall Street insiders who can profit from it. The agency’s inspector general is looking into the incidents. So is at least one congressional committee.At the same time, the bureau — like other statistical agencies in the United States and around the world — is facing long-running challenges: shrinking budgets, declining response rates to its surveys, shifting economic patterns in the wake of the pandemic and increased public skepticism of its numbers, at times stoked by political leaders including former President Donald J. Trump.Economists and other experts say the bureau’s data remains reliable, and they praise the agency’s efforts to ensure its numbers are accurate and free of political bias. But they say the recent problems threaten to undermine confidence in the agency, and in government statistics more broadly.“A statistical agency lives or dies by trust,” said Erica Groshen, who served as commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics during the Obama administration. Once that trust is lost, she added, “it’s very hard to restore it.”The agency recognizes that threat, its current leader says, and is taking it seriously.“We are under more scrutiny because the environment around the agency has changed,” Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the bureau, said in an interview.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    Why This Jobs Report Could Be the Most Pivotal One in Years

    It’s tough to overstate how much hinges on Friday’s employment update, from the path for interest rates to the economic outlook.A fresh jobs report set for release on Friday could mark a turning point for the American economy, making it one of the most important and closely watched pieces of data in years.The employment numbers will shed crucial light on whether a recent jump in the unemployment rate, which tracks the share of people who are looking for work but have not yet found it, was a blip or the start of a problematic trend.The jobless rate rose notably in July after a year of creeping higher. If that continued in August, economists are likely to increasingly worry that the United States may be in — or nearing — the early stages of a recession. But if the rate stabilized or ticked down, as economists forecast, July’s weak numbers are likely to be viewed as a false alarm.The answer is coming at a pivotal moment, as the Federal Reserve moves toward its first rate cut since the 2020 pandemic.Central bankers have been clear that they will lower interest rates at their meeting on Sept. 17-18. Whether that cut is a normal quarter-point reduction or a larger half-point move could hinge on how well the job market is holding up. It is rare for so much to ride on a single data point.“It matters a lot,” said Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, a research firm. “It’s going to set the tone for the Fed, and that’s going to set the tone for global monetary policy and markets.”Unemployment and UnderemploymentThe jobless rate historically jumps during recessions.

    Unemployment is the share of people actively looking for work; underemployment also includes people who are no longer actively looking and those who work part time but would prefer full-time jobs.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares149 Views

    in Economy

    Biden Expected to Block U.S. Steel Takeover by Nippon

    The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States is expected to raise national security concerns about selling the iconic steel producer to Japan’s Nippon Steel.President Biden is preparing to soon block an attempt by Japan’s Nippon Steel to buy U.S. Steel on national security grounds, according to three people familiar with the matter, likely sinking a merger that became entangled in election-year politics in the United States.A decision to block the takeover would come after months of wrangling among lawmakers, business leaders and labor officials over whether a corporate acquisition by a company based in Japan — a key U.S. ally — could pose a threat to national security. A move by Mr. Biden to block the deal on those grounds could roil relations between the two nations at a moment when the United States has been trying to deepen ties with Japan amid China’s growing influence in East Asia.For months, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS, has been scrutinizing the deal over potential risks. There has been mounting speculation that the Biden administration could intervene before the November election.A White House official told The New York Times that CFIUS “hasn’t transmitted a recommendation to the president, and that’s the next step in this process.”CFIUS is made up of members of the State, Defense, Justice, Commerce, Energy and Homeland Security Departments, and is led by the Treasury secretary, Janet L. Yellen.The committee sent a letter to U.S. Steel in recent weeks saying that it had found national security concerns with the transaction, one of the people familiar with the situation said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 188 Shares179 Views

    in Economy

    Bond market ‘yield curve’ returns to normal from inverted state that had raised recession fears

    A trader signals an offer in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index futures pit at the CME Group in Chicago on Dec. 14, 2010.
    Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    The relationship between the 10- and 2-year Treasury yield briefly normalized Wednesday, reversing a classic recession indicator.
    Following economic news that showed a sharp decline in job openings and dovish remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, the benchmark 10-year yield inched above the 2-year for the first time since June 2022.

    The respective yields were both around 3.79% on the session, with just a few thousandths of a percentage point separating them.

    Stock chart icon

    10-year yield vs. the 2-year

    An inverted yield curve, in which the nearer-duration yield is higher, has signaled most recessions since World War II. The reason why shorter-duration yields rose above their longer-duration counterparts is essentially the result of traders pricing in slower growth out into the future.
    However, a normalization of the curve does not necessary signal good times ahead. In fact, the curve usually does revert before a recession hits, meaning the U.S. could still be in for some rough economic waters ahead.
    “If you don’t have any sense of history regarding the economy, needless to say it would be positive,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “However, statistically the yield curve will normalize as the economy actually does go into a recession or is in a recession simply because the Fed is going to be cutting rates” in response to a slowing economy.
    The price action followed a Labor Department report showing that job openings unexpectedly slid below 7.7 million in July, bringing supply and demand almost even following a severe imbalance since the Covid crisis. Job openings had exceeded labor supply by more than 2 to 1 at one point, aggravating inflation that had been at its highest level in more than 40 years.

    At the same time, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic released comments, around the same time the job openings report dropped, indicating that he’s ready to start reducing rates even with inflation running above the central bank’s 2% goal.
    Lower rates are seen as a boost for economic growth; the Fed has held its benchmark rate at its highest level in 23 years since July 2023, targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.
    While the market most closely watches the relationship between the 2-year and 10-year, the Fed more closely observes the relationship between the 3-month and 10-year. That part of the curve is still steeply inverted, with the difference now at more than 1.3 percentage points.

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

  • 188 Shares159 Views

    in Economy

    Job openings fell more than expected in July in another sign of labor market softening

    Job openings slumped to their lowest level in 3½ years in July, the Labor Department reported Wednesday in another sign of slack in the labor market.
    The department’s closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that available positions fell to 7.67 million on the month, off 237,000 from June’s downwardly revised number and the lowest level since January 2021.

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 8.1 million.
    With the decline, it brought the ratio of job openings per available worker down to less than 1.1, about half where it was from its peak of more than 2 to 1 in early 2022.
    The data likely provides further ammunition to Federal Reserve officials who are widely expected to begin lowering interest rates when they meet for their next policy meeting on Sept. 17-18. Fed officials watch the JOLTS report closely as an indicator of labor market strength.
    “The labor market is no longer cooling down to its pre-pandemic temperature, it’s dropped past it,” said Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “Nobody, and certainly not policymakers at the Federal Reserve, should want the labor market to get any cooler at this point.”
    While the job openings level declined, layoffs increased to 1.76 million, up 202,000 from June. Total separations jumped by 336,000, pushing the separations rate as a share of the labor force up to 3.4%. However, hires rose as well, up 273,000 on the month, putting the rate at 3.5% or 0.2 percentage point better than June.

    The professional and business services sector showed the biggest increase in openings with 178,000. On the down side, private education and health services fell by 196,000, trade, transportation and utilities declined 157,000 and government, a leading source of job gains over the past few years, was off by 92,000.
    Though the report adds to concerns that the economy is slowing, it “does not suggest any rapid deterioration in the labor market,” Krishna Guha, head of the Global Policy and Central Bank Strategy Team at Evercore ISI, said in a client note.
    “The still low level of layoffs and tick up in hires suggests the labor market is not cracking. But demand for workers continues to soften relative to the supply of workers, and a forward perspective suggests this is likely to continue under restrictive policy,” he added.
    The report comes two days ahead of the pivotal August nonfarm payrolls count that the Labor Department will release Friday. The report is expected to show an increase of 161,000 and a tick down in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

  • 188 Shares139 Views

    in Economy

    Atlanta Fed President Bostic says officials can’t wait for inflation to hit 2% before cutting

    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signaled Wednesday that he is ready to start lowering interest rates even though inflation is still running above the central bank’s target.
    The comments come with markets already widely expecting the Fed to cut its benchmark borrowing rate by at least a quarter percentage point when it meets Sept. 17-18.

    speaking at Jackson Hole on August 23, 2024.  
    David A. Grogan | CNBC

    Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic signaled Wednesday that he is ready to start lowering interest rates even though inflation is still running above the central bank’s target.
    Previously one of the more hawkish policymakers, or in favor of tighter policy to fight inflation, Bostic noted that his focus is shifting more toward the employment side of the Fed’s mandate as signs increase of labor market softening.

    “I believe we cannot wait until inflation has actually fallen all the way to 2 percent to begin removing restriction because that would risk labor market disruptions that could inflict unnecessary pain and suffering,” he wrote in a message posted on the Atlanta Fed’s website.
    The Fed’s preferred measure showed inflation running at a 2.5% rate in July, and just a slightly higher 2.6% core rate when excluding food and energy. Bostic did not specify how much or when he thinks the Fed should start easing.
    However, the missive comes with markets already widely expecting the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee to cut its benchmark borrowing rate by at least a quarter percentage point when it meets Sept. 17-18.
    As an FOMC voting member this year, Bostic’s views carry extra weight and add another level of assurance that the Fed will enact its first easing since the emergency measures it took more than four years ago in the early days of the Covid crisis.
    His comments also come two days before what is expected to be a pivotal nonfarm payrolls report as most economists see the labor market losing momentum. Bostic said his experiences with business leaders in the Atlanta area reflect that concern.

    “Rest assured, I do not sense a looming crash or panic among business contacts. However, the data and our grassroots feedback describe an economy and labor market losing momentum,” he said. “The upside to this is that the slowdown in activity is feeding a continuing, welcome decline in the pace of inflation.”
    Indeed, he cited multiple factors indicating that inflation is progressing convincingly back to the Fed’s target as the labor market moderates.
    “Given the circumstances before us — eroding pricing power and a cooling labor market — I’ve rebalanced my focus toward both sides of the dual mandate for the first time since early 2021,” he said.

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

  • 113 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown

    The ISM monthly survey of purchasing managers showed that just 47.2% reported expansion in August, above the July reading but below the consensus forecast.
    Another weak economic reading raises the probability the Fed will be cutting interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point later this month.

    Workers assemble second-generation R1 vehicles at electric auto maker Rivian’s manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, U.S. June 21, 2024. 
    Joel Angel Juarez | Reuters

    U.S. factories remained in slowdown mode in August, fueling fears about where the economy is headed, according to separate manufacturing gauges.
    The Institute for Supply Management monthly survey of purchasing managers showed that just 47.2% reported expansion during the month, below the 50% breakeven point for activity.

    Though that was slightly above the 46.8% recorded for July, it was below the Dow Jones consensus call for 47.9%.
    “While still in contraction territory, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted slower compared to last month. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative,” said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
    “Demand remains subdued, as companies show an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current federal monetary policy and election uncertainty,” he added.
    While the index level suggests contraction in the manufacturing sector, Fiore pointed out that any reading above 42.5% generally points to expansion across the broader economy.
    It was a weaker-than-expected reading last month that sent markets further into a tailspin, ultimately costing the S&P 500 about 8.5% before recovering most of the losses. Stocks added to declines following the latest ISM release on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off nearly 500 points.

    Another weak economic reading raises the probability the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point later this month. Following the ISM report, traders raised the odds of a more aggressive half-point reduction to 39%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.
    With the survey, the employment index edged higher to 46% while inventories jumped to 50.3%. Regarding inflation, the prices index nudged higher to 54%, possibly giving the Fed some pause when deciding on the extent of the fully priced-in rate cut.
    The ISM results were backed up by another PMI reading from S&P, which showed a decrease to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July.
    The S&P employment index showed a decline for the first time this year, while the input cost measure climbed to a 16-month high, another sign that inflation remains present if well off its mid-2022 highs.
    “A further downward lurch in the PMI points to the manufacturing sector acting as an increased drag on the economy midway through the third quarter. Forward-looking indicators suggest this drag could intensify in the coming months,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More