Evelyn Reynolds

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    Friday’s jobs report could present a mixed view of the labor market. Here’s what to expect

    Economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report a gain of 155,000 in nonfarm payrolls in December, a step down from the surprising 227,000 increase in November.
    Details of the report will be key, with some on Wall Street expecting that the number could come in a bit weaker than the consensus.
    Goldman Sachs, for one, estimates that payroll growth will come in at just 125,000, with the unemployment rate drifting up to 4.3%.

    Signage at the New York Public Library’s annual Bronx Job Fair & Expo at the Bronx Library Center in the Bronx borough of New York, US, on Friday, Sept. 6, 2024. 
    Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The December jobs report is likely to provide only limited clarity on where the labor market is headed, with experts differing on how pronounced a slowdown there is in hiring.
    From a consensus view, economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday morning to report a gain of 155,000 in nonfarm payrolls, a step down from the surprising 227,000 increase in November but about in keeping with the four-month average. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%.

    However, the details of the report will be key, with some on Wall Street expecting that the number could come in a bit weaker, depending on how seasonal trends and other factors play out.
    “We’ve seen a little bit of the softening, and I think we’ll continue to see that, but it’s still a good [labor] market overall,” said Maureen Hoersten, chief operating officer and interim CEO at LaSalle Network, a Chicago-based staffing firm. “Things are leveling off a little bit. People are still a tad cautious, trying to figure out this new year and the new economic climate and political climate.”
    On average, the economy in 2024 added about 180,000 jobs a month through November, though the data has been volatile and somewhat confusing lately. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Thursday that labor market reports “have become increasingly difficult to interpret” due to measurement challenges, which have included a surge of new workers and low response rates on surveys.
    The December report also could be harder to judge depending on how the hiring of holiday workers affects the numbers.
    Goldman Sachs, for one, estimates that payroll growth will come in at just 125,000, with the unemployment rate drifting up to 4.3%.

    “Our forecast reflects a rebound in the labor force participation rate and middling household employment growth amid more challenging job-finding prospects,” the Wall Street bank said in a note. “We expect deceleration in job growth in non-retail sectors, particularly professional services and construction, to more than offset stronger retail hiring this month.”
    Similarly, Citigroup is predicting just 120,000 new jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate, which economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote “should remind markets that the labor market has not stabilized and is continuing to soften. Risks are balanced to an even softer reading.”
    However, Hoersten said she thinks that once some of the current volatile factors subside, companies will continue adding head count, even if at a gradual rate. A Bureau of Labor Statistics report Tuesday put job openings in November at a six-month high of just over 8 million, while layoffs were little changed and the quits rate, a measure of worker mobility, declined.
    At the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, officials noted an “ongoing gradual easing in labor market” conditions, but saw “no signs of rapid deterioration,” according to minutes released Wednesday.
    In a recent business survey, LaSalle Network found that 67% of small and midsize companies plan to increase head count in 2025, down from 74% the year before. The survey also found that salary increases are expected to be smaller and hybrid working is likely to remain prevalent as a wedge to compete against larger companies for workers.
    Average hourly earnings are expected to show a 0.3% increase in December and an annual rate of 4% from a year ago, little changed from November.
    “Right now, I think things are just going to stay fairly flat overall, nothing drastic one way or the other,” Hoersten said. “But I do believe it’s still a good, strong market, and companies just needed to get past the little bit of a crazy climate over the past couple months and get back to the steady state.” More

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    Can Low Unemployment Last Under Trump?

    Hiring has slowed, but joblessness remains at levels defying economic norms. Big policy changes under a new administration could test that resilience.For a time, not too long ago, it was the central question animating economic forecasts and bets laid by investors in financial markets: Will the U.S. economy avoid a recession?Now, for many in the business world, that question feels almost passé, part of an earlier, more fretful era of narratives.After a superlative run of hovering below 4 percent for more than two years, the unemployment rate — at 4.2 percent — has ticked up since last spring. But only by a bit so far; the December reading will come on Friday. While hiring has slowed, layoffs remain low by long-term standards.Inflation, having calmed substantially, is still being eyed warily by the Federal Reserve, which began steeply raising interest rates in 2022 to combat price increases. But at three consecutive meetings in the final months of 2024, the Fed slightly lowered the key interest rate it controls — an attempt to surgically take some pressure off commercial activity and support employment.Predictions of a downturn, once omnipresent, were mostly absent from the year-ahead forecasts that major financial firms typically send around to clients over the holidays.Near the start of 2024, Jeremy Barnum, the chief financial officer at JPMorgan Chase, told listeners asking about U.S. economic vitality during a conference call, “Everyone wants to see a problem — but the reality is we aren’t seeing any yet.”

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    Unemployment rate
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsKarl RussellWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    White House Ignites Firestorm With Rules Governing A.I.’s Global Spread

    The tech industry is fighting new regulations, expected soon, that aim to keep the cutting-edge technology in the United States and allied countries.The next big fight over offshoring is playing out in Washington, and this time it involves artificial intelligence.The Biden administration, in its final weeks in office, is rushing to issue new regulations to try to ensure that the United States and its close allies have control over how artificial intelligence develops in the years to come.The rules have touched off an intense fight between tech companies and the government, as well as among administration officials.The regulations, which could be issued as early as Friday, would dictate where American-made chips that are critical for A.I. could be shipped. Those rules would then help determine where the data centers that create A.I. would be built, with a preference for the United States and its allies.The rules would allow most European countries, Japan and other close U.S. allies to make unfettered purchases of A.I. chips, while blocking two dozen adversaries, like China and Russia, from buying them. More than 100 other countries would face different quotas on the amount of A.I. chips they could receive from U.S. companies.The regulations would also make it easier for A.I. chips to be sent to trusted American companies that run data centers, like Google and Microsoft, than to their foreign competitors. The rules would establish security procedures that data centers would have to follow to keep A.I. systems safe from cybertheft.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Banks Are Racking Up Wins Even Before Trump Is Back in White House

    Banks are on a winning streak, one that’s poised to intensify as President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office.Biden-appointed regulators at the Federal Reserve and other agencies presided over a relatively fruitless era of bank oversight. They tried to enact stricter rules for the nation’s biggest banks, hoping to create a stronger safety net for the financial system even if it cut into bank profits.But the rules were considered so onerous — including by some top Fed officials — that they died of their own ambitions.As proposals stalled, the foundation for existing bank oversight became increasingly shaky thanks to bank-friendly courts. During his first term, Mr. Trump appointed a slate of conservative judges who then slowly but significantly shifted the legal environment against strict federal oversight.The result? Big banks have been notching major victories that could allow them to avoid regulatory checks that were drawn up after the 2008 financial crisis, when weaknesses at the world’s largest lenders nearly toppled the global economy.And with Mr. Trump once again poised to run the White House, analysts predict that the regulations and supervisory practices that are supposed to prevent America’s biggest and most interconnected financial institutions from making risky bets could be further chipped away in the months ahead.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    SEIU Joins Forces With AFL-CIO Ahead of New Trump Era

    A marriage between the service employees union and the A.F.L.-C.I.O. could better equip organized labor to deal with a less-friendly administration.Two prominent labor groups are joining forces in an attempt to expand union membership and protect members’ interests as they face the likelihood of a less union-friendly federal government under Donald J. Trump.The Service Employees International Union, which represents nearly two million workers in industries like home health care and janitorial services, said on Wednesday that it would become part of the A.F.L.-C.I.O., an umbrella group of more than 50 unions that represent more than 12.5 million workers.The boards of the two groups formally approved the affiliation arrangement earlier in the day.April Verrett, the service employees’ president, said in an interview that the union had begun discussing the possibility of joining the A.F.L.-C.I.O. almost two years ago, and that discussions with the federation and its president, Liz Shuler, accelerated early last year.In a statement, the two groups said the partnership would help them push for changes to local, state and federal rules that made it easier for workers to join unions, and help them support “multiunion, multisector” campaigns to organize workers.The move suggests how forces largely aligned with the Democratic Party might try to reposition themselves to deal with the coming administration and a Republican-controlled Congress.Ms. Verrett and Ms. Shuler said the alliance was unrelated to the result of November’s presidential election, but they acknowledged that it would help organized labor fend off potential threats from the Trump administration.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Port Workers Could Strike Again if No Deal Is Reached on Automation

    Cargo could stop flowing at East and Gulf Coast ports, which handle most imports, if a union and an employers’ group can’t agree on the use of machines that can operate without humans.Ports on the East and Gulf Coasts could close next week if dockworkers and employers cannot overcome their big differences over the use of automated machines to move cargo.The International Longshoremen’s Association, the union that represents dockworkers, and the United States Maritime Alliance, the employers’ negotiating group, on Tuesday resumed in-person talks aimed at forging a new labor contract.After a short strike in October, the union and the alliance agreed on a 62 percent raise over six years for the longshoremen — and said they would try to work out other parts of the contract, including provisions governing automated technology, before Jan. 15.If they don’t have a deal by that date, ports that account for three-fifths of U.S. container shipments could shut, harming businesses that rely on imports and exports and providing an early test for the new Trump administration.“If there’s a strike, it will have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and the supply chain,” said Dennis Monts, chief commercial officer of PayCargo, a logistics payments platform.The union is resisting automation because it fears the loss of jobs at the ports. President-elect Donald J. Trump lent his support to the union’s position last month. “I’ve studied automation, and know just about everything there is to know about it,” he said on his website Truth Social. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Trump’s Greenland Plan Could Hit Ozempic, Legos and Hearing Aids

    President-elect Donald J. Trump has threatened tariffs on many countries for many different reasons.On Monday, he found a new purpose for his favorite economic tool. Mr. Trump said he would “tariff Denmark at a very high level” if it refused to allow Greenland — a North American island that is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark — to become part of the United States.“They should give it up, because we need it for national security,” Mr. Trump said of Greenland. Denmark, which has a smaller population than New York City, is not a huge trading partner for the United States. The country — a U.S. ally and a NATO member — sent the United States more than $11 billion worth of goods in 2023, just a tiny slice of more than $3 trillion of imports. The United States, in turn, sends Denmark more than $5 billion in goods, including industrial machinery, computers, aircraft and scientific instruments.But despite its small size, Denmark, which handles Greenland’s foreign and security affairs, is home to some products that are very well-loved in America, goods that could become more expensive if Mr. Trump follows through with heavy tariffs. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, a trade data platform, roughly half of Denmark’s recent exports to the United States are packaged medicines, insulin, vaccines and antibiotics.That’s largely because the country is home to Novo Nordisk, the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy, the popular weight-loss drugs. The company is so important to the Danish economy — it has recently accounted for half of Denmark’s private sector job growth and all of the country’s economic growth — that some have branded Denmark a “pharmastate.”Novo Nordisk is increasing its U.S. production to meet the soaring demand for its GLP-1 weight loss products. The company does not specify publicly how much of its products are exported, but it produces drugs in Denmark and the United States for the U.S. market.A spokesperson for Novo Nordisk said in a statement that they were following the situation closely but would not comment on hypotheticals and speculation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Private sector companies added 122,000 jobs in December, less than expected, ADP says

    Companies added a seasonally adjusted 122,000 jobs for the month, down from 146,000 additions in November and less than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 136,000.
    On wages, pay grew at a 4.6% rate from a year ago, the slowest pace since July 2021.

    A worker adjusts hiring signage at a job and resource fair hosted by the Mountain Area Workforce Development Board in partnership with NCWorks in Hendersonville, North Carolina, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. 
    Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Private sector job creation eased more than expected in December while wages grew at the slowest pace in nearly three-and-a-half years, payment processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.
    Companies added a seasonally adjusted 122,000 jobs for the month, down from 146,000 additions in November and less than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 136,000. It was the smallest increase since August.

    On wages, pay grew at a 4.6% rate from a year ago, the slowest pace since July 2021.
    “The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.
    The ADP report comes two days ahead of the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that report to show a gain of 155,000, which in itself would mark a sharp slowdown from November’s unexpectedly strong 227,000.
    Federal Reserve policymakers are watching the jobs numbers closely as they plot their next moves for monetary policy. While most Fed officials have said they believe the labor market is solid, they are looking to keep interest rates less restrictive so as not to threaten job creation.
    They also have expressed more confidence that inflation has stabilized though it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. The ADP numbers could add to the case that wages aren’t pressuring inflation.

    From a sector standpoint, job creation was strongest in the education and health services category, which added 57,000 positions. Other significant gains came in construction (27,000), leisure and hospitality (22,000) and financial activities (12,000).
    Several sectors reported job losses, including manufacturing (-11,000), natural resources and mining (-6,000) and professional and business services (-5,000).
    Almost all of the jobs came from big companies with more than 500 workers, which amounted to 97,000. More