Evelyn Reynolds

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    For Syria’s Economy, the Way Forward Starts With Sanctions Relief

    Years of strife ruined the energy sector, battered the currency and strangled growth. The West must ease financial controls to help the economy, experts say.Although the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria was shockingly quick, rebuilding the devastated economy he left behind will be painfully slow.After nearly 14 years of brutal civil war and political repression, most of Syria’s oil and gas wells, roads, electricity grids, farmland and infrastructure are in ruins. Ninety percent of the population is living in poverty. The value of the Syrian pound has plummeted, and the central bank’s reserves of foreign currency — needed to buy essentials like food, fuel and spare parts — are nearly depleted.Before the war, oil accounted for two-thirds of Syria’s exports and agriculture made up roughly a quarter of economic activity. More recently, Syria’s most profitable export was captagon, an illegal, addictive amphetamine controlled by a cartel of politically connected elites.“The whole economic system in Syria is not functioning,” said Samir Aita, a Syrian economist and the president of the Circle of Arab Economists.Ahmed al-Shara, the leader of the rebel coalition that has taken power in Syria, has a daunting task ahead to unify the rebel factions, reconstitute the government, re-establish the rule of law, provide security and manage essential services like the distribution of water and other scarce resources.Even so, there is widespread agreement that the single most important step in rebuilding Syria’s economy can be taken only by the United States: Lift the punishing layers of sanctions that have effectively cut off Syria from international commerce and investment.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How a Government Shutdown Could Affect the Economy

    A federal government shutdown probably wouldn’t be enough to derail the solid U.S. economy. But it could inject more uncertainty into an already murky economic outlook.Funding for the federal government will lapse at the end of Friday if Congress doesn’t reach a deal to extend it. It is still possible that legislators will act in time to prevent a shutdown, or will restore funding quickly enough to avoid significant disruptions and minimize any economic impact.But if the standoff lasts beyond the weekend, most federal offices will not open Monday, and hundreds of thousands of government employees will be told not to work. Others will be required to work without pay until the government reopens.For those workers and their families, the consequences could be serious, especially if the impasse drags on. Federal law guarantees that government workers will eventually receive back pay, but that may not come in time for those living paycheck to paycheck. And the back-pay provisions don’t apply to consultants or contractors. During the last government shutdown — a partial lapse in funding in late 2018 and early 2019 — federal workers lined up at food pantries after going weeks without pay.For the economy as a whole, the effects of a shutdown are likely to be more modest. Many of the most important government programs, like Social Security and Medicare, would not be affected, and government services that are deemed “essential,” such as air traffic control and aviation security, can continue at least temporarily. Federal workers who put off purchases are likely to make them once their paychecks restart.Forecasters at Goldman Sachs estimate that a shutdown would exert a small but measurable drag on the economy, reducing quarterly economic growth by about 0.15 percentage points for every week the lapse in funding continues. Most of that toll, though not all, would reverse in the next quarter. Other forecasters have released similar estimates.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    PCE Inflation, the Fed’s Preferred Measure, Sped Up in November

    The Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed 2.4 percent from a year earlier, though the report’s details were more subdued than expected.Federal Reserve officials are closely watching how inflation shapes up as they contemplate when and how much to cut interest rates in 2025, and the latest inflation data offers reasons for both wariness and hope.The central bank’s preferred inflation measure, released on Friday, climbed 2.4 percent in November from a year earlier, faster than its 2.3 percent rate in October and notably quicker than the central bank’s 2 percent target.And after stripping out food and fuel costs, both of which bounce around from month to month, “core” inflation was 2.8 percent, in line with its previous reading.The stickiness in yearly inflation served as a reminder that bringing price increases back to a normal pace remained a bumpy and incomplete project.But the details of the report were more encouraging. On a monthly basis, both overall and core inflation climbed 0.1 percent — slightly less than what economists had expected, and slower than in October. That suggested that progress on inflation had not stalled quite as much as expected.In all, the fresh inflation figures probably reinforce both the Fed’s cautious stance and a widespread belief among its policymakers that inflation will eventually slow further.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected

    The PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of just 0.1% from October and a 2.4% annual rate, both below expectations.
    Excluding food and energy, core PCE also increased 0.1% monthly and was 2.8% higher from a year ago, with both readings being 0.1 percentage point below the forecast.
    Personal income rose 0.3%, short of the 0.4% estimate. Personal expenditures increased 0.4%, one-tenth of a percentage point below the forecast.

    Prices barely moved in November but still held higher than the Federal Reserve’s target when looked at from a year ago, according to a Commerce Department measure released Friday.
    The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of just 0.1% from October. The measure indicated a 2.4% inflation rate on an annual basis, still ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal, but lower than the 2.5% estimate from Dow Jones. The monthly reading also was 0.1 percentage point below the forecast.

    Excluding food and energy, core PCE also increased 0.1% monthly and was 2.8% higher from a year ago, with both readings also being 0.1 percentage point below the forecast. Fed officials generally consider the core reading to be a better gauge of long-run inflation trends as it excludes the volatile gas and groceries category.
    The annual core inflation reading was the same as in October while the headline rate rose 0.1 percentage point.
    The readings reflected little increase in goods prices and a 0.2% rise in services prices. Food and energy prices both posted 0.2% gains as well. On a 12-month basis, goods prices have fallen 0.4%, but services have risen 3.8%. Food prices were up 1.4% while energy fell 4%.
    Housing inflation, one of the stickier components of inflation during his economic cycle, showed signs of cooling in November, rising just 0.2%.
    Income and spending numbers in the release also were a bit light compared with expectations.

    Personal income rose 0.3% after having jumped 0.7% in October, falling short of the 0.4% estimate. On spending, personal expenditures increased 0.4%, one-tenth of a percentage point below the forecast.
    The personal saving rate edged lower to 4.4%.
    Stock market futures held in negative territory after the report while Treasury yields also slumped.
    “Sticky inflation appeared to be a little less stuck this morning,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade Morgan Stanley. “The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in lower than expected, which may take some of the sting out of the market’s disappointment with the Fed’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday.”
    The report comes just two days after the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate another quarter percentage point to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, the lowest in two years. However, Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues reduced their expected path in 2025, now penciling in just two reductions compared with four indicated in September.
    Though Powell said Wednesday that inflation has “moved much closer” to the Fed’s goal, he said the changes in the projected path for rate cuts reflects “the expectation inflation will be higher” in the year ahead.
    “It’s kind of common sense thinking that when the path is uncertain you go a little bit slower,” Powell said. “It’s not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down.”

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    Russian central bank surprises markets by holding key rate at 21%

    Russia’s central bank on Friday unexpectedly left its key interest rates unchanged at 21%, citing improved monetary tightness that had created the conditions to tame sky-high inflation.
    Markets had widely expected the central bank to hike interest rates by another 200 basis on Friday, after taking such a step in October.
    Russia’s consumer price index hit 8.9% in November on an annual basis, up from 8.5% in October.

    MOSCOW, Russia: The Russian central bank has cut its key interest rate by 300 basis points for a third time since its emergency hike in late February, citing cooling inflation and a recovery in the ruble.
    KIRILL Kudryavtsev | AFP | Getty Images

    Russia’s central bank on Friday unexpectedly left its key interest rates unchanged at 21%, citing improved monetary tightness that had created the conditions to tame sky-high inflation.
    “Monetary conditions tightened more significantly than envisaged by the October key rate decision,” the bank said, noting factors “autonomous” from its monetary policy.

    “Given the notable increase in interest rates for borrowers and the cooling of credit activity, the achieved tightness of monetary conditions creates the necessary prerequisites for resuming disinflation processes and returning inflation to the target, despite the elevated current price growth and high domestic demand,” it added.
    Markets had widely expected the central bank to hike interest rates by another 200 basis on Friday, after taking such a step in October amid an ongoing effort to subdue inflation stoked by the military costs of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and by Western sanctions against its key commodity exports.
    The bank on Friday said it would assess the need for a key rate increase at its upcoming meeting in February. It currently forecasts annual inflation will decline to 4% in 2026 and remain at this target in the forward horizon.
    Russia’s consumer price index is currently more than twice this rate — annual inflation hit 9.5% as of Dec. 16, the bank said Friday, noting persisting pressures, especially in the household and business sectors. The consumer price index hit 8.9% in November on an annual basis, up from 8.5% in October. The increase was largely driven by rising food prices, with the cost of milk and dairy products soaring this year.

    Inflation an ‘alarming signal’

    The hold to interest rates comes even after Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted during his Thursday annual Q&A session with Russian citizens that the nation’s inflation was problematic and that there was evidence of the economy overheating. He nevertheless stressed that Russia could still achieve 3.9%-4% of economic growth this year.

    “Of course, inflation is such an alarming signal. Just yesterday, when I was preparing for today’s event, I spoke with the chairperson of the Central Bank, Elvira [Nabiullina] who told me that it was already somewhere around 9.3%. But wages have grown by 9% in real terms, I want to emphasize this — in real terms minus inflation — and the disposable income of the population has also grown,” he said, according to comments reported by Interfax and translated by Google.
    The International Monetary Fund predicts Russia will notch 3.6% growth this year, before a deceleration to 1.3% growth in 2025.
    The “sharp slowdown,” the IMF said, was envisaged “as private consumption and investment slow amid reduced tightness in the labor market and slower wage growth.”
    “What we are seeing right now in the Russian economy, [is] that it is pushing against capacity constraint,” Alfred Kammer, director of the European Department at the IMF, said when the fund released its latest economic outlook in October.
    “So we have a positive output gap, or you could put it differently — the Russian economy is overheating. What we are expecting for next year is simply also the impact that going over your supply capacity, you cannot maintain for very long. So we see an impact on moving into more normal territory there. And of course, that is supported by a tight monetary policy by the Central Bank of Russia,” he said.
    “A tight monetary policy, in order to bring down inflation, slows down aggregate demand, and in 2025 will have these effects on GDP. That’s why we are seeing the slowdown in 2025,” Kammer added. More

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    Starbucks Workers Say They Will Begin a Strike in 3 Cities on Friday

    The planned walkout in Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle comes after talks between the company and the workers’ union failed to produce an agreement on raises.A union representing Starbucks workers said Thursday that baristas in Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle would walk off the job Friday morning and that the strikes would spread to hundreds of stores by Christmas Eve unless the company improved its wage offer in contract negotiations.The union, which represents baristas at more than 500 company-owned stores in the United States — about 5 percent of the U.S. total — said it called the strike after a bargaining session with the company this week failed to produce better wage gains.The strike is expected to begin in about 15 stores across the three metropolitan areas, according to a union member familiar with the situation who was not authorized to speak publicly.“Starbucks proposed an economic package with no new wage increases for union baristas now and a guarantee of only 1.5 percent in future years,” the union, Workers United, said in a statement.The guarantee would entitle unionized Starbucks workers to receive a wage increase of 1.5 percent even if the company raises wages nationwide by less than that amount in future years. If the company raised wages by more than that — as it did this year, with a recently announced increase of 2 percent — unionized workers would get the higher amount.Andrew Trull, a Starbucks spokesman, said union delegates “prematurely ended” this week’s negotiations. “It is disappointing they didn’t return to the table given the progress we’ve made to date,” he added.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Amazon Delivery Drivers at Seven Hubs Walk Out

    The retail giant said it expected its operations to be largely unaffected by the strike of some drivers at contracting firms Amazon uses to deliver packages.Workers who deliver packages from seven Amazon facilities across the country went on strike Thursday morning, according to the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the union that represents them.The Teamsters said thousands of workers had struck, but it was unclear how many people were participating in the action. Amazon said it expected the seven delivery hubs to operate normally.The drivers are employees of companies that Amazon uses to deliver packages to customers. Amazon has said it has no obligation to bargain with the drivers because they are not its employees. But the union and the workers said Amazon ultimately controlled their working conditions and was therefore obligated to negotiate a contract that would improve their pay and make the work less taxing.The National Labor Relations Board has investigated some of the cases and issued at least one complaint finding the drivers to be Amazon employees and accusing the company of breaking the law by failing to bargain with them.The Teamsters said in a statement that workers at other Amazon warehouses were prepared to join the strike. The largest group at Amazon represented by the union works at a Staten Island warehouse known as JFK8, which employs more than 5,000 people. Employees at the warehouse voted to unionize in 2022, but the company has yet to bargain with them and is challenging the election outcome.Workers involved in the strike say it could extend into early next week, perhaps into Christmas, but it’s unclear how big an impact the walkout will have on Amazon’s holiday deliveries.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Nvidia’s Global Chips Sales Could Collide With US-China Tensions

    The chipmaker expects more than $10 billion in foreign sales this year, but the Biden administration is advancing rules that could curb that growth.In early August, the king of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, traveled from the mountains of his landlocked Asian country to the headquarters of Nvidia, a maker of artificial intelligence chips in the flatlands of Silicon Valley.King Wangchuck did a two-hour tour and listened as Jay Puri, Nvidia’s head of global business, discussed how Bhutanese investment in data centers and Nvidia chips could combine with the kingdom’s biggest natural resource, hydropower, to create new A.I. systems.The pitch was one of dozens that Nvidia has made over the past two years to kings, presidents, sheikhs and government ministers. Many of those countries went on to pour billions of dollars into government efforts to build supercomputers or generative A.I. systems, hoping to gain a competitive foothold in what could be the century’s defining technology.But in Washington, officials worry that Nvidia’s global sales spree could empower adversaries. Now the Biden administration is working on rules that would tighten control over A.I. chip sales and turn them into a diplomatic tool.The proposed framework would allow U.S. allies to make unfettered purchases, adversaries would be blocked entirely, and other nations would receive quotas based on their alignment with U.S. strategic goals, according to four people familiar with the proposed restrictions, who did not have permission to speak publicly about them.The restrictions would threaten an international expansion plan that Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, calls “sovereign A.I.” Mr. Huang has hopscotched the globe this fall, logging over 30,000 miles in three months, and the company expects to make more than $10 billion in sales this year from countries outside the United States.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More