Evelyn Reynolds

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    After Trump’s Pause on Tariffs, EU Delays Retaliation to Allow Talks

    E.U. officials ​announced on Thursday that they would delay their plans for retaliatory tariffs after President Trump’s abrupt decision to hit pause on some of the levies he had placed on Europe and much of the rest of the world.Mr. Trump’s announcement, a day before, had signaled what European leaders were hoping for: a possible willingness to negotiate.Washington’s pivot came just hours after European officials had approved retaliatory levies of 10 to 25 percent on about $23 billion of U.S. imports. But given the American shift in stance, E.U. leaders said on Thursday that they would take a 90-day pause of their own.“If negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, announced in a statement. “Preparatory work on further countermeasures continues.”The Trump administration is specifically pausing what it has called “reciprocal” tariffs — across-the-board taxes that apply in different amounts to different countries. Mr. Trump announced those levies on April 2 and said that the European Union would face a levy of 20 percent. With his about-face on Wednesday, the bloc would most likely instead face a 10 percent across-the-board tariff for the next 90 days.But the 25 percent tariffs that Mr. Trump has placed on both cars and on steel and aluminum seemed to be still in place — and the retaliation that Europe approved on Wednesday was in response to those metal-sector tariffs, not to the tariffs that Mr. Trump has now delayed. The retaliation plan would have applied tariffs of 10 to 25 percent on a wide range of goods, including soybeans, peanut butter and hair spray. Officials will now “take a bit of time to think, take a bit of time to analyze, take a bit of time to reflect,” Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission, said at a news conference on Thursday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Tanking oil prices could more than double Saudi Arabia’s deficit to $75 billion and threaten spending plans: Goldman Sachs economist

    “The deficits on the fiscal side that we’re likely to see in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries, especially big countries like Saudi Arabia, are going to be pretty significant,” Goldman Sachs’ Farouk Soussa told CNBC.
    Saudi Arabia needs oil at more than $90 a barrel to balance its budget, the IMF estimates. Goldman Sachs this week lowered its price forecast for 2025 to $62 for Brent crude.
    Spending by the kingdom has ballooned due to Vision 2030, a sweeping campaign to transform the Saudi economy and diversify its revenue streams away from hydrocarbons.

    Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
    Johnnygreig | E+ | Getty Images

    Crashing oil prices triggered by waning demand, global trade war fears and growing crude supply could more than double Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit, a Goldman Sachs economist warned.
    The bank’s outlook spotlighted the pressure on the kingdom to make changes to its mammoth spending plans and fiscal measures.

    “The deficits on the fiscal side that we’re likely to see in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries, especially big countries like Saudi Arabia, are going to be pretty significant,” Farouk Soussa, Middle East and North Africa economist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s Access Middle East on Wednesday.
    Spending by the kingdom has ballooned due to Vision 2030, a sweeping campaign to transform the Saudi economy and diversify its revenue streams away from hydrocarbons. A centerpiece of the project is Neom, an as-yet sparsely populated mega-region in the desert roughly the size of Massachusetts.
    Plans for Neom include hyper-futuristic developments that altogether have been estimated to cost as much as $1.5 trillion. The kingdom is also hosting the 2034 World Cup and the 2030 World Expo, both infamously costly endeavors.

    Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
    The Line, NEOM

    Saudi Arabia needs oil at more than $90 a barrel to balance its budget, the International Monetary Fund estimates. Goldman Sachs this week lowered its year-end 2025 oil price forecast to $62 a barrel for Brent crude, down from a previous forecast of $69 — a figure that the bank’s economists say could more than double Saudi Arabia’s 2024 budget deficit of $30.8 billion.
    “In Saudi Arabia, we estimate that we’re probably going to see the deficit go up from around $30 to $35 billion to around $70 to $75 billion, if oil prices stayed around $62 this year,” Soussa said.

    “That means more borrowing, probably means more cutbacks on expenditure, it probably means more selling of assets, all of the above, and this is going to have an impact both on domestic financial conditions and potentially even international.”
    Financing that level of deficit in international markets “is going to be challenging” given the shakiness of international markets right now, he added, and likely means Riyadh will need to look at other options to bridge their funding gap.

    The kingdom still has significant headroom to borrow; their debt-to-GDP ratio as of December 2024 is just under 30%. In comparison, the U.S. and France’s debt-to-GDP ratios of 124% and 110.6%, respectively. But $75 billion in debt issuance would be difficult for the market to absorb, Soussa noted.
    “That debt to GDP ratio, while comforting, doesn’t mean that the Saudis can issue as much debt as they like … they do have to look at other remedies,” he said, adding that those remedies include cutting back on capital expenditure, raising taxes, or selling more of their domestic assets — like state-owned companies Saudi Aramco and Sabic. Several Neom projects may end up on the chopping block, regional economists predict.
    Saudi Arabia has an A/A-1 credit rating with a positive outlook from S&P Global Ratings and an A+ rating with a stable outlook from Fitch. That combined with high foreign currency reserves — $410.2 billion as of January, according to CEIC data — puts the kingdom in a comfortable place to manage a deficit.
    The kingdom has also rolled out a series of reforms to boost and de-risk foreign investment and diversify revenue streams, which S&P Global said in September “will continue to improve Saudi Arabia’s economic resilience and wealth.”
    “So the Saudis have lots of options, the mix of all of these is very difficult to pre-judge, but certainly we’re not looking at some sort of crisis,” Soussa said. “It’s just a question of which options they go for in order to deal with the challenges that they’re facing.”
    Global benchmark Brent crude was trading at $63.58 per barrel on Thursday at 9:30 a.m. in London, down roughly 14% year-to-date. More

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    Inside Factories in China, a Struggle to Survive Trump’s Tariffs

    As President Trump ratcheted up new tariffs on goods from China to 125 percent this week, the mood in the dusty streets and small factories of southeastern China was a mixture of anger, worry and resolve.Thousands of export-oriented small factories in or near Guangzhou, the commercial hub of southeastern China, have played a central role in the country’s rapid economic development over the past half century. Quick to supply almost any manufactured product at a low cost, they employ millions of migrant workers from all over China.Now many of these small factories, cornerstones of the Chinese economy, are confronting difficult times. Clothing factory managers fret about a spate of orders from American customers being canceled at the last minute, saddling them with losses. Managers of factories making machinery wonder whether their low costs will help them survive. And workers hope they will still have jobs in the coming weeks and months.A small factory in Guangzhou, China, makes ovens, fryers and other equipment for restaurants and backyard barbecuers.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesA few garment factories that mainly supplied the United States market have already closed temporarily as their owners wait for more clarity on tariffs. Managers of many more factories are now hurrying to find buyers in other countries or chase down customers in China.But China already faced a huge glut of factory capacity even before Mr. Trump began closing the American market this year to many imports from China. Customers elsewhere have demanded ever deeper discounts.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Inside Trump’s Reversal on Tariffs: From ‘Be Cool!’ to ‘Getting Yippy’

    Economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused President Trump to reverse course on the steep levies.For the past week, President Trump has been urging calm in the face of the financial chaos that he created and resisting calls for him to rethink his approach.“I know what the hell I’m doing,” he told Republicans on Tuesday as the massive tariffs he had imposed sent global markets into a tailspin. “BE COOL!” he said in a social media post on Wednesday morning. “Everything is going to work out well.”At 9:37 a.m. Wednesday, the president was still bullish on his policy, posting on Truth Social: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”But in the end, it was the markets that got him to reverse course.The economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused Mr. Trump to blink on Wednesday afternoon and pause his “reciprocal” tariffs for most countries for the next 90 days, according to four people with direct knowledge of the president’s decision.Asked to explain the decision, Mr. Trump told reporters: “Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy, you know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.”Behind the scenes, senior members of Mr. Trump’s team had feared a financial panic that could spiral out of control and potentially devastate the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others on the president’s team, including Vice President JD Vance, had been pushing for a more structured approach to the trade conflict that would focus on isolating China as the worst actor while still sending a broader message that Mr. Trump was serious about cracking down on trade imbalances.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Bond Sell Off Raises Questions About U.S. Safe Haven Status

    A sharp sell-off in U.S. government bond markets and the dollar has set off fears about the growing fallout from President Trump’s tariffs, raising questions about what is typically seen as the safest corner for investors during times of turmoil.Yields on 10-year Treasuries — the benchmark for a wide variety of debt — whipsawed on Wednesday after Mr. Trump paused the bulk of the levies he had threatened the week before and raised the rates charged on Chinese goods after that country retaliated. The reversal sent U.S. stocks soaring.After the announcement, the 10-year bond traded at 4.35 percent, slightly lower than earlier in the day but still well above recent levels. Just a few days ago, it had traded below 4 percent. Yields on the 30-year bond reversed an earlier rise that had lifted it above 5 percent. It now stands at 4.74 percent. Selling intensified for short-term government bonds, with the two-year yield surging nearly 0.2 percentage points to 3.9 percent.Amid the tumult, other markets considered alternative safe havens to the United States have gained. Yields on German government bonds, which serve as the benchmark for the eurozone, fell on Wednesday, indicating strong demand. Gold prices rose, too.The U.S.-centric volatility comes on the heels of investors fleeing riskier assets globally in what some fear had parallels to an episode known as the “dash for cash” during the pandemic, when the Treasury market broke down. The recent moves have upended a longstanding relationship in which the U.S. government bond market serves as a safe harbor during times of stress.Adding to Wednesday’s angst was the fact that the U.S. dollar, which is the world’s dominant currency and was largely expected to strengthen as Mr. Trump’s tariffs came into effect, had instead weakened. It shaved some of those losses after the administration’s announcement.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Reverses Course on Global Tariffs, Announcing 90-Day Pause

    The president further raised already steep tariffs on China, saying that Beijing should not have retaliated against his earlier trade actions.President Trump on Wednesday abruptly reversed course on steep global tariffs that have roiled markets, upset members of his own party and raised fears of a recession. Just hours after he put punishing levies into place on nearly 60 countries, the president said he would pause them for 90 days.But Mr. Trump did not extend that pause to China, opting instead to raise tariffs again on all Chinese imports, bringing those taxes to a whopping 125 percent. That decision came after Beijing raised its levies on American goods to 84 percent on Wednesday afternoon in an escalating tit-for-tat between the world’s largest economies.In a post on Truth Social, the president said that he had authorized “a 90 day PAUSE” in which countries would face “a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff” of 10 percent. As a result, nearly every U.S. trading partner now faces a 10 percent blanket tariff, on top of 25 percent tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed on cars, steel and aluminum.Slumping markets quickly rallied after Mr. Trump’s post. The S&P 500 climbed several percentage points in a matter of minutes and closed with a rise of more than 9 percent, sharply reversing days of losses. Wednesday was the best day for the S&P 500 since the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.Nearly every stock in the index rose. Airlines, some tech companies and Tesla were among those companies to soar over 20 percent. Shares of automakers rose sharply even though 25 percent tariffs on imported cars remain in place. Ford and General Motors both rose more than 7 percent.Mr. Trump, who for days had insisted he was not concerned about the market rout, acknowledged on Wednesday that the downturn had fed into his decision.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Delta Warns Trump’s Trade War Will Weigh on the Economy

    Delta Air Lines on Wednesday became one of the largest American companies to warn that President Trump’s escalating trade war was weighing on its business and the global economy.Speaking before Mr. Trump reversed many of the tariffs he had just imposed on most countries, Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said a recession was possible as companies pulled back spending. “Everyone’s being prepared for uncertainty,” he told CNBC, “if that continues, and we don’t get resolution soon, we will probably end up in a recession.”Mr. Trump’s announcement helped send Delta stock up over 20 percent on Wednesday and prompted a broad rally in stocks. The president said he would pause the high tariffs for 90 days but kept a 10 percent tariff on most countries in place.Still, the president’s reversal might not be enough to dispel the uncertainty that has made it hard for companies to plan ahead. The Trump administration also said on Wednesday that it would significantly raise tariffs on China. The United States might not strike trade deals with other countries within 90 days.Airlines are highly sensitive to changes in the economy because air travel is among the first things that individuals and businesses can cut back on when they are worried about their paychecks or profits.Mr. Bastian expressed shock at the speed at which the trade tensions had taken the wind out of the economy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Defends Tariff Strategy Amid Global Trade War and Market Chaos

    As new U.S. tariffs upended financial markets and sent foreign governments scrambling to respond, President Trump on Wednesday morning remained ebullient, posting at one point on Truth Social: “BE COOL!”“Everything is going to work out well,” he maintained amid the unfurling chaos. “The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!”For Mr. Trump, the reassurances offered a stark, split-screen contrast with the pandemonium stemming from his costly and widening global trade war. In the hours since he imposed his latest round of tariffs, foreign powers including China have retaliated against the United States — and economists broadly have expressed renewed alarm about the prospects for severe blowback. But Mr. Trump has continued to downplay the risks to American consumers and businesses, insisting it is all part of his plan.In a post on Truth Social, he argued it was actually a “GREAT time to move your COMPANY into the United States of America,” adding: “DON’T WAIT, DO IT NOW!”When financial markets began to whipsaw — and a sell-off in the U.S. bond market deepened — the president chose to portray the uncertainty and chaos as an opportunity. “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” he posted on the site later Wednesday morning.The president also tried to refocus attention on his plan to extend a set of soon-expiring tax cuts on individuals and businesses, which remains snarled in the House and Senate because of disagreements within Republican ranks.“Republicans, it is more important now, than ever, that we pass THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,” Mr. Trump said in another of his posts. “The USA will Soar like never before!!!”For days, Mr. Trump and his top aides had foreshadowed the chaos and confusion now playing out across the global financial system. The president repeatedly had described the U.S. economy in medical terms, saying the nation was “sick” and needed a painful yet necessary corrective to boost American manufacturing and generate new revenue.Economists have told a different story, warning that the president’s steep new taxes on foreign exports could curtail growth and result in price increases for American consumers, ultimately raising the odds of a U.S. recession. Even some Republicans have grown increasingly alarmed with Mr. Trump’s trade strategy, with a handful signing on to new legislation that would limit his tariff authorities.But Mr. Trump has remained steadfast in his approach, as administration officials estimated this week that more than 70 countries had reached out to Washington in the hopes of striking a trade deal.“I know what the hell I’m doing,” the president told Republicans on Tuesday. More