Evelyn Reynolds

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    Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations

    Wholesale prices nudged higher in October, though largely in line with expectations and mostly consistent with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
    The producer price index, which measures what producers get for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, up one-tenth of a percentage point from September though matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%.

    Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. The 12-month rate was at 3.1%.
    Though the readings are above the Fed’s 2% inflation goal, the trend is showing that price increases are generally moderating and inflation is being pushed by isolated factors.
    Services rose 0.3% on the month, accounting for most of the PPI increase, and was driven largely by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management prices. Food prices fell 0.2% on the month while energy was off by 0.3%. Goods prices nudged higher by 0.1% after falling the previous two months.
    Markets reacted little to the news, with stock futures pointing to a mixed open while Treasury yields held higher.
    Traders expect the Fed to follow up rate cuts in September and November with another quarter percentage point reduction at the Dec. 17-18 meeting. After that, market pricing points to the Fed skipping January and moving at a slower easing pace through 2025.

    The market-implied probability for a December rate cut nudged down to 76.1% following the release, an area that still indicates a strong likelihood, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge of futures prices.
    In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that the pace of layoffs continued to moderate after a brief spike.
    Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 217,000 for the week ended Nov. 9, down 4,000 from the previous period and slightly lower than the 220,000 estimate.
    Continuing claims, which run a week behind, totaled 1.873 million, down 11,000 from the prior week.

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    NLRB Bars Mandatory Anti-Union Meetings After Amazon Draws Complaint

    The ruling, stemming from a complaint against Amazon, bars companies from compelling workers to attend meetings on unionization’s downsides.The National Labor Relations Board ruled on Wednesday that companies may not compel workers to attend meetings on the downsides of unionization, a tactic that unions say stifles worker organizing.The decision, the latest in a slew of labor board rulings under the Biden administration aimed at supporting workers’ right to unionize, stems from a complaint over Amazon’s conduct before a successful union election in 2022 at a Staten Island warehouse, the first Amazon warehouse in the nation to unionize. The company held hundreds of meetings there and at another location to discourage workers from supporting a union.The N.L.R.B.’s ban on so-called captive audience meetings is a precedent with potential impact beyond Amazon, though it could be reversed after President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office. Facing a wave of union campaigns since the onset of the pandemic, large employers including Starbucks, Trader Joe’s and REI have held such meetings in what labor regulators and unions have described as an effort to clamp down on organizing. The companies have denied accusations of anti-union campaigns.These meetings, which employees are often required to attend, give employers “near-unfettered freedom to force their message about unionization on workers,” Lauren McFerran, the Democratic chairman of the labor board, said in a statement. She added that they undermine employees’ ability to choose whether they want union representation, a right guaranteed under federal law.“Today’s decision better protects workers’ freedom to make their own choices in exercising their rights,” Ms. McFerran said, “while ensuring that employers can convey their views about unionization in a noncoercive manner.”Amazon intends to appeal the decision, said Mary Kate Paradis, a company spokeswoman, calling the ruling a violation of the First Amendment and adding that it “contradicts the express language” of the National Labor Relations Act. Meetings are often held “because the decision about whether or not to join a union is an important one, and employees deserve to understand the facts so they can make an informed choice,” she said in a statement.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations

    The consumer price index increased 0.2% in October, taking the 12-month inflation rate up to 2.6%. Both numbers were in line with expectations.
    The core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts.
    Despite signs of inflation moderating elsewhere, shelter prices continued to be a major contributor to the CPI move.
    Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for workers increased 0.1% for the month and 1.4% from a year ago.

    Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.
    The consumer price index, which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September.

    The readings were both in line with the Dow Jones estimates.
    Excluding food and energy, the move was even more pronounced. The core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts.

    Stock market futures nudged higher following the release while Treasury yields fell. Following the release, traders sharply raised the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by another quarter percentage point in December.
    Energy costs, which had been declining in recent months, were flat in October while the food index increased 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, energy was off 4.9% while food was up 2.1%.
    Despite signs of inflation moderating elsewhere, shelter prices continued to be a major contributor to the CPI move. The shelter index, which carries about a one-third weighting in the broader index, climbed another 0.4% in October, double its September move and up 4.9% on an annual basis. The category was responsible for more than half the gain in the all-items CPI measure, according to the BLS.

    Used vehicle costs also rose, up 2.7% on the month while motor vehicle insurance declined 0.1% but was still higher by 14% for the 12-month period. Airline fares jumped 3.2% while eggs tumbled 6.4% but were still 30.4% higher from a year ago.
    Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for workers increased 0.1% for the month and 1.4% from a year ago, the BLS said in a separate report.
    The readings took inflation further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal and could complicate the central bank’s monetary policy strategy going forward, particularly with a new administration taking over the White House in January.
    “No surprises from the CPI, so for now the Fed should be on course to cut rates again in December. Next year is a different story, though, given the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and other Trump administration policies,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “The markets are already weighing the possibility that the Fed will cut fewer times in 2025 than previously thought, and that they may hit the pause button as early as January.”

    President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to implement more tariffs and government spending have the potential both to boost growth and aggravate inflation, which remains a substantial problem for U.S. households despite easing off its meteoric peak in mid-2022.
    Consequently, traders in recent days have scaled back their anticipation for Fed rate cuts ahead. The central bank already has lopped off 0.75 percentage point from its key borrowing rate and had been expected to move aggressively ahead.
    However, traders now expect just another three-quarters of a point in cuts through the end of 2025, about half a point less than priced in before the presidential election.

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    How Trump’s Immigration Plans Could Affect the Economy

    Expelling noncitizens on a mass scale is likely to raise prices on goods and services and lower employment rates for U.S. workers, many economists say.The wave of migrants who arrived during the Biden administration fueled some of the anger that propelled Donald J. Trump back to power. They also offset a labor shortage, putting a damper on inflation.With the next administration vowing to seal the border and carry out the largest deportation program in American history, those economic forces could reverse — depending on the degree to which Mr. Trump can fulfill those promises.Mr. Trump’s newly appointed “border czar,” Tom Homan, has said that the administration would start with the immigrants who have committed crimes. There are not nearly enough of those to amount to removals on a mass scale, however, and Vice President-elect JD Vance has also said that all 11 million undocumented immigrants should prepare to leave. “If you are in this country illegally in six months, pack your bags, because you’re going home,” Mr. Vance said in September.The numbers could rise by another 2.7 million if the new administration revokes several types of temporary humanitarian protection, as the Trump adviser Stephen Miller previewed last year. On top of that, millions of undocumented residents live with U.S.-born children or green card holders who could end up leaving the country as well.There are logistical, legal, diplomatic and — even though Mr. Trump has said there is “no price tag” he wouldn’t direct the government to pay — fiscal obstacles to expelling millions of people who would rather stay. (According to the American Immigration Council, an advocacy group for immigrants, it would cost $315 billion to arrest, detain, and deport all 13.3 million living in the United States illegally or under a revocable temporary status.)That’s why forecasting a precise impact is impossible at this point. But if Mr. Trump accomplishes anything close to what he has pledged, many economists expect higher prices on goods and services and possibly lower employment rates for American workers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Republicans and Democrats Highly Divided in Economic Outlook Under Trump

    Consumer sentiment among Republicans has soared to its highest point since Donald J. Trump left the White House, while declining among Democrats.Donald J. Trump won last week’s election in part by promising to fix an economy many voters believed was broken.Republicans, at least, seem to believe him.Consumer sentiment among Republicans has soared nearly 30 percent in the week since Election Day, according to data from Morning Consult, an online survey firm. Republicans, according to the survey, now feel better about the economy than at any time since Mr. Trump lost his bid for re-election four years ago.Democrats, unsurprisingly, have had a very different reaction. Sentiment in that group has dropped 13 percent since Election Day, its lowest level since early 2023. For political independents, relatively little has changed in their attitudes toward the economy in recent days.

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    Consumer sentiment by party identification
    Note: Data shown as five-day moving average. Political independents not shown.Source: Morning ConsultBy The New York TimesThe big partisan shifts in Americans’ economic views are not a surprise. There have been similar swings after past presidential elections, although the trend has become more pronounced in recent decades. And voters have said for months that their economic expectations would depend partly on whether their preferred candidate won the White House.“Consumers have been telling us all year long their expectation for the economy is contingent on the outcome of the election,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s long-running survey of consumer sentiment. She expects to see large partisan swings in that survey as well, she said, when data from after the election becomes available this month.Measures of consumer sentiment have been depressed for much of President Biden’s time in office, though indicators such as the unemployment rate and wage growth have indicated a strong economy. In polls and interviews, Americans have cited inflation as one of the main sources of their dissatisfaction with Mr. Biden, even as inflation has cooled.Economic sentiment has begun to improve in recent months, however, perhaps suggesting that more Americans are starting to see improvements in inflation in their daily lives — albeit too late to help Democrats in this month’s elections.“Consumers probably are seeing and to some extent digesting some of the good economic news,” said Deni Koenhemsi, head of economic analysis for Morning Consult.Ms. Koenhemsi noted that consumers’ expectations had improved more rapidly than their assessment of the economy’s current state. That suggests that many are still struggling with high prices but becoming more optimistic about the months ahead.That gradual process isn’t surprising, said Neale Mahoney, a Stanford University economist who worked in Mr. Biden’s administration. In research published last year, Mr. Mahoney and a colleague found that it takes time for sentiment to adjust as inflation cools and people become used to the new, higher price of many goods and services.“Even if measured inflation has decreased, the way people experience inflation, they may still be acclimatizing to the price increases that were most acute in summer of 2022 into 2023,” Mr. Mahoney said.The election, he added, could accelerate that process, at least for Republicans, who might be more inclined to reset their expectations once their preferred candidate is in office. More

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    Why Trump’s Victory Is Fueling a Market Frenzy

    Investors have been comforted by a clear election result and are anticipating tax cuts and deregulation from a second Trump administration.Donald J. Trump’s election victory reverberated through financial markets. And one week later, bets on the economy’s path and on corporate winners or losers — known as the “Trump trade” on Wall Street — are in full swing.Stock prices for perceived winners have snapped higher: Bank valuations have soared, as investors anticipate more lenient regulations. The same is true for many large companies seeking to consolidate through mergers and acquisitions, which have frequently been blocked or discouraged under President Biden.The share price of Tesla, run by Mr. Trump’s adviser and campaign benefactor Elon Musk, has surged by more than 40 percent since the election last week. Cryptocurrencies, which Mr. Trump has pledged to lend more support, popped as well, with Bitcoin hitting record highs.Based on the president-elect’s promises of drastic immigration enforcement, which might increase demand for detention services, the shares of private prison operators also rose sharply.Presumed losers slumped in price, including smaller green energy firms benefiting from Biden-era tax credits. A range of retailers and manufacturers reliant on imported goods have also suffered, because they may be negatively exposed to tariffs that Mr. Trump has floated.The stock market overall, though, has ripped to new highs, surpassing the records it set earlier in the year.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Countries Weigh How to Raise Trillions for Climate Crisis at COP29

    Low-income countries need at least $1 trillion a year to manage climate change. Donald Trump’s victory just made that more difficult, but options exist.Money: It’s the most contentious subject at the international climate talks this week in Baku, Azerbaijan. How much? From where? What for?Getting big cash commitments would be hard enough without wars, a pandemic and inflation having drained the reserves of rich countries that are expected to help poorer ones cope with climate hazards.It just got even harder. The election of Donald J. Trump as president of the United States all but guarantees that the world’s richest country will not chip in. (Mr. Trump has said he would withdraw from the global climate accord altogether, as he did during his first term.)So now what?Several creative ideas are circulating to raise money for countries to invest in renewable energy and adapt to the dangers of climate change. They include levying taxes, tackling debt and pushing international development banks to do more, faster.The new proposals come with steep hurdles of their own, but the traditional way of raising money — passing around the hat and asking donor countries to make pledges — has failed to meet the need.The last time a climate finance goal was established, in 2009, rich countries promised to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020. They were two years late in meeting that target, and about 70 percent of the money came as loans, infuriating already heavily indebted countries.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs Could Deal a Blow to Mexico’s Car Factories

    Until a few years ago there was not much in this patch of desert 250 miles north of Mexico City but rattlesnakes, coyotes and cactus. Today, it is gleaming evidence of the country’s growing importance as an auto producer.In 2019, BMW completed a vast factory complex here, near the city of San Luis Potosí. As spotless and modern as any in Bavaria, the plant builds luxury sedans for the United States, Europe, China and dozens of other markets.San Luis Potosí is one of several Mexican cities that have become little Detroits, producing Volkswagens, Audis, Mercedes, Fords, Nissans and Chevrolets. In the first nine months of this year, Mexican factories produced more than three million vehicles, of which two million were exported to the United States, according to the Mexican Automobile Industry Association.But Mexico’s pivotal role in the global auto industry is now at risk. President-elect Donald J. Trump has threatened to impose punitive tariffs of 100 percent or higher on cars from Mexico, which would violate a trade agreement his first administration negotiated with Canada and Mexico.The BMW factory in San Luis Potosí has 3,700 employees.Bénédicte Desrus for The New York TimesThe consequences for the auto industry would be profound, affecting the price in the United States of popular models like Ford Maverick pickups, Chevrolet Equinox sport-utility vehicles and several variations of Ram trucks.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More