Evelyn Reynolds

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    Trump says he would let Fed Chair Powell finish his term if he wins in November, Bloomberg reports

    The Republican presidential candidate told Bloomberg Businessweek he would allow the Fed chair to finish his term if he wins in November.
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who took the helm at the central bank in 2018, has had a strained relationship with former President Donald Trump.
    In 2019, Trump had called for lower interest rates, arguing the rate policy at the time put the U.S. at a disadvantage against other nations. He took to social media to criticize the central bank leader.
    In February of this year, Trump told Fox Business that he wouldn’t reappoint Powell.

    Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump raises his fist during Day 1 of the Republican National Convention (RNC) at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., July 15, 2024. 
    Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

    Donald Trump will allow Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to complete his term at the central bank if he won the November election, the Republican presidential candidate told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview.
    “I would let him serve it out, especially if I thought he was doing the right thing,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek. President Joe Biden nominated Powell to serve a second four-year term as Fed chief in May 2022.

    Powell is also a Fed governor, a position he will hold until Jan. 31, 2028.
    These comments mark an about-face from the former president, who has had a strained relationship with the central bank leader.
    Powell took the helm as Fed chief in February 2018, and he had faced criticism from then-President Trump over the years on interest rate policy.
    Back in 2019, Trump criticized the central bank and its leader — even as policymakers lowered rates three times that year, eventually to a target range of 1.5% to 1.75% — arguing the U.S. was at an economic disadvantage against other countries with lower rates.
    As recently as February of this year, Trump told Fox Business that he would not reappoint Powell to lead the Fed. “I think he’s political,” he told journalist Maria Bartiromo. “I think he’s going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates.”
    Read the Bloomberg Businessweek article here.

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    Trump-Vance Administration Could Herald New Era for Dollar

    Both candidates on the Republican ticket have argued that the U.S. currency should be weaker to support American exports.Donald J. Trump’s selection of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance to be his vice-presidential nominee pairs him with a kindred spirit on trade, taxes and a tough stance on China. But it is their shared affinity for a weak dollar that could have the most sweeping implications for the United States and the global economy.In most cases, Mr. Trump likes his policies to be “strong,” but when it comes to the value of the dollar, he has long expressed a different view. Its strength, he has argued, has made it harder for American manufacturers to sell their products abroad to buyers that use weaker currencies. That’s because their money is worth so much less than the dollars that they need to make those purchases.“As your president, one would think that I would be thrilled with our very strong dollar,” Mr. Trump said in 2019, explaining that U.S. companies like Caterpillar and Boeing were struggling to compete. “I am not!”The dollar has been the world’s dominant currency since World War II, and central banks hold about 60 percent of their foreign exchange reserves in dollars, according to the Congressional Research Service.The United States has maintained a “strong dollar” policy since the 1990s, when Robert E. Rubin, the Treasury secretary at the time, declared that he did not view it as a threat to the ability of American business to compete abroad. The United States avoids taking measures to steer the strength of the dollar, and Treasury secretaries tend to argue that currency values should be determined by market forces. When countries, such as China, have acted to weaken their currencies, the U.S. has shamed them as currency manipulators.It is not clear how Mr. Trump would go about weakening the dollar. His Treasury Department could try to sell dollars to buy foreign currency or try to persuade the Federal Reserve to just print more dollars.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    IMF sees ‘bumps’ in path to lower inflation

    In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the International Monetary Fund said “the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path.”
    The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. 

    The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that upside risks to inflation have increased, calling into question the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. 
    In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said “the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path.” The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. 

    The report comes as traders ramp up bets for a Fed rate cut in September. Per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, Wall Street has priced in a 100% chance of lower rates at the Sept. 18 meeting. Traders also expect another rate decrease in November.
    However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday that one rate cut from the Fed is most appropriate this year, highlighting still-stubborn services and wage inflation as complications to the path to lower inflation. 
    Gourinchas said that while the robust wages and service inflation are “not necessarily a source of worry,” they are points of concern for the U.S. economy. His comments came after the U.S. Labor Department said the consumer price index grew last month at its slowest year-over-year pace since April 2021.
    Despite the encouraging CPI report, Gourinchas stated the uptick in inflation earlier in the year indicates that the path toward lower inflation and rate cuts “could take a little bit longer than maybe the markets are expecting.” 
    “We’re more in the camp that there could be some cuts in the latter part of the year but maybe just one, or 2024 and maybe the rest of 2025,” Gourinchas said. 

    Across advanced economies globally, the IMF forecasts the rate of disinflation to slow in 2024 and 2025 due to broadly high service inflation and commodity prices. 
    Concerning the U.S. economy, the financial institution lowered its growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in 2024 on cooling consumption and slower-than-expected growth at the start of the year.

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    Is It Silicon Valley’s Job to Make Guaranteed Income a Reality?

    For the last couple of years, the tech community has tested no-strings-attached payments of $500 or $1,000 a month to those in dire need. Some of these experiments have happened in the heart of Silicon Valley, where a one-bedroom apartment rents for $3,000 a month and a modest house is often an unaffordable luxury.Silicon Valley’s backing of these efforts has propelled the idea of a guaranteed income — also known as cash transfers, unconditional cash and, in its most utopian form, universal basic income — into the mainstream. But a bipartisan political consensus around the movement is fracturing even though the data seems to show that the programs are effective.In recent months, the Texas attorney general went to court to prevent public funds from being used in a basic income program in Houston. Republicans in Iowa, Idaho and South Dakota banned similar programs. A ban in Arizona was vetoed by the governor.The movement has scored a few victories, too. A proposal for a statewide basic income program is likely to be on the ballot in Oregon this fall. The measure would give $750 to each state resident annually, funded by a 3 percent tax on corporations with revenue over $25 million.It is a critical moment for guaranteed income, which has been touted by the OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman, the Tesla chief executive Elon Musk, the Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, the Salesforce chief executive Marc Benioff and others.On Monday, the results from the biggest direct income program to date, the Unconditional Income Study, will be released. The study was the idea of Mr. Altman, who has emerged as the chief cheerleader of a boom in artificial intelligence that, he says, will sweep away all that came before it. Anyone whose job can be done by A.I. software might need a guaranteed income by and by.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    IMF upgrades UK growth forecast in another boost to new Labour government

    The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its U.K. growth forecast for 2024 to 0.7%.
    It is the latest in a string of upgrades for the U.K.’s economic outlook, giving the country’s new government a boost.
    Goldman Sachs earlier this month nudged its 2025 forecast for the U.K. economy 0.1 percentage point higher, citing the Labour party’s fiscal plans.

    Seen through the branches of trees in Ruskin Park are the lit porches of terraced period homes and in the distance, the growing development at Nine Elms, on 14th May 2024, in London, England. 
    Richard Baker | In Pictures | Getty Images

    LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its 2024 growth outlook for the U.K. to 0.7% from 0.5%, providing a further boost to the country’s new government.
    Looking ahead, the Washington, D.C.-based IMF reiterated its forecast for 1.5% U.K. growth in 2025 in the July update of its World Economic Outlook.

    The upgrades come after two years of stagnation, with the U.K. falling into a shallow recession in the second half of 2023. However, GDP growth in May came in above analyst expectations at 0.4%, while summer events including the Euro 2024 soccer championship and even Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour are expected to bolster economic activity.
    Investment bank Goldman Sachs earlier this month nudged its 2025 forecast for the U.K. economy 0.1 percentage point higher, to 1.6%. It cited the fiscal plans of the new Labour government led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which include planning reform and closer trade ties with the European Union.
    Deutsche Bank on Friday joined Goldman in brightening its U.K. outlook, with economists saying in a note they now expect gross domestic product growth of 1.2% this year, well above their earlier 0.8% forecast.
    The country’s GDP in May showed the strength of sectors across professional services and construction, Deutsche Bank said, with the Euros tournament expected to provide a further boost to hospitality and leisure.
    Analysts at Jefferies, meanwhile, said in a recent note that the size of Labour’s parliamentary majority would make the U.K. appear “relatively stable,” and that in tandem with regulatory reform may raise the attractiveness of assets in the country.

    It comes as the Bank of England is expected to start bringing down interest rates in the coming months. U.K. inflation hit the central bank’s 2% target in May, and economists polled by Reuters see it declining further to 1.9% in Wednesday’s print.
    Other economies given a 2024 growth upgrade by the IMF on Tuesday included the euro zone, which it lifted by 0.1 percentage point to 0.9%, Spain, up 0.5 percentage point to 2.4%, and China, up 0.4 percentage point to 5%.
    It lowered its forecast for the U.S. economy by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6%.
    The organization sees worldwide growth at 3.2% this year, and said global activity and world trade were firmer, particularly due to strong exports from Asia.
    However, it warned that the services sector was broadly holding up the disinflation process, complicating monetary policy decisions.
    “Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty,” the IMF said in the World Economic Outlook.
    — CNBC’s Sophie Kiderlin and Vicky McKeever contributed. More

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    I.M.F. Sees Signs of Cooling in U.S. Economy

    The International Monetary Fund warned that inflation remained stubbornly high and that protectionism posed a risk to the global economic outlook.The United States economy is growing more slowly than expected and inflation remains stubbornly high around the world, two developments that pose risks to the global economy, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.The I.M.F.’s most recent World Economic Outlook report underscored the lingering vulnerabilities that could derail a so-called soft landing for the world economy — one in which a global recession is avoided despite aggressive efforts by central banks to tame rapid inflation by making it more expensive to borrow money.The new report said the I.M.F. still expected growth in global output to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024. That would be unchanged from its April projections. The fund also expected growth to be slightly higher next year, at 3.3 percent. However, the closely watched projections included several caveats and warned that the global economy was in a “sticky spot.”Most notable were signs of weakness in the United States, which has helped power the global recovery from the pandemic. The I.M.F. now expects the United States economy to grow more slowly than it did previously as a result of weaker consumer spending and a softening job market.The report forecast that U.S. economic growth would increase to 2.6 percent in 2024 from 2.5 percent in 2023, a slight downgrade from its previous projection of 2.7 percent. “The United States shows increasing signs of cooling, especially in the labor market, after a strong 2023,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, said in an essay that accompanied the report.Global inflation is still expected to ease to 5.9 percent this year from 6.7 percent in 2023. But the I.M.F. noted that prices for services remained hot. That could force central banks — which have raised interest rates to their highest levels in years — to keep borrowing costs elevated longer, putting growth at risk for both advanced and developing economies.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Caterpillar Factory in Mexico Draws Complaint of Labor Abuses

    The Biden administration declined to pursue a union complaint of labor abuses in Mexico, raising new concerns about offshoring.Over the past few years, as major manufacturers have announced plans to ramp up production in Mexico, labor unions have raised concerns that American jobs will be sent abroad.Now, the concerns have prompted the United Automobile Workers union, a prominent backer of President Biden, to criticize an administration decision not to pursue accusations of labor abuses by a Mexican subsidiary of Caterpillar, the agriculture equipment maker.In late June, the administration informed a group of unions that it would not pursue a complaint that the subsidiary had retaliated against striking union members by making it difficult for them to find alternative employment, a form of blacklisting.The government’s ability to police such violations, under a provision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement, is meant to reduce the incentive for American employers to move jobs to Mexico in search of weaker labor protections. The U.A.W. argues that, by declining to use its authority under the trade agreement in this case, the Biden administration may be encouraging companies to relocate work.Caterpillar workers in Mexico “face harassment and blacklisting for daring to stand up, with no help from the U.S.M.C.A.,” Shawn Fain, the president of the U.A.W., said in a statement. The U.A.W. was among several labor groups that brought the complaint.The Biden administration would not comment on the complaint, but pointed to two dozen other cases it had pursued under the trade agreement. Caterpillar did not respond to requests for comment.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed’s Powell Welcomes Cooler Inflation but Steers Clear of Rate Cut Timing

    Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, avoided signaling when the Fed would cut rates at a time when some economists are wondering why officials would wait.Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, avoided sending a clear signal about when the central bank would begin to cut interest rates even as he welcomed a recent cool-down in inflation.“Today I’m not going to be sending any signals one way or the other on any particular meeting,” Mr. Powell said while speaking at the Economic Club of Washington on Monday. “Just to ruin the fun right at the beginning.”The Fed’s chair was speaking after several inflation reports in a row suggested that price increases were moderating in earnest, a development that had spurred some economists to think that it could make sense for officials to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The Fed meets at the end of July and then again in September, and investors have been largely expecting that officials will begin to lower borrowing costs at the September meeting.Economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note on Monday that cutting rates this month could be appropriate, given how much inflation had come down.“If the case for a cut is clear, why wait another seven weeks before delivering it?” Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, wrote in the note, explaining that while his team still thinks that a rate cut in September is more likely, there is a “solid rationale” for an earlier move.But Mr. Powell did little to open the door to an earlier move during his Monday remarks. While he said recent inflation reports had added to central bankers’ confidence that price increases were coming down, he avoided giving a clear signal about when officials would have enough confidence to lower borrowing costs.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More