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    U.A.W. Monitor Reveals Details About Investigation Into Union Leader

    A court-appointed monitor said he was looking into allegations that a union official was punished for resisting actions that would have benefited the union president’s partner and her sister.A court-appointed monitor disclosed on Monday that he was investigating accusations that the president of the United Automobile Workers union retaliated against a vice president for resisting actions that would have benefited the president’s domestic partner and her sister.The monitor made the disclosure in a court filing seeking access to internal union documents as part of an investigation that began in February into potential financial misconduct.Since then, the monitor and the union have clashed over how much access the monitor should have to union documents, and the pace at which the union has produced them. In Monday’s filing, the monitor, Neil Barofsky, sought an order granting him extensive access.The union declined to comment.The monitor was appointed as part of a 2021 consent decree that ended a federal corruption case against the union. It concerned 11 top officials who were convicted of felonies, including two former U.A.W. presidents.The U.A.W.’s current president, Shawn Fain, was an obscure union official before winning the top job in March 2023 on a platform of reforming the union, getting tough with large U.S. automakers and organizing nonunion companies.Under Mr. Fain, the union waged a set of six-week-long strikes last year that won members substantial wage and benefit increases. The union then capitalized on the momentum of the strike by unionizing a Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., this April — the first foreign-owned plant in the South to be unionized — before losing another high-profile election in May at two Mercedes plants in Alabama.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed Chair Powell says holding rates high for too long could jeopardize economic growth

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth.
    “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment,” Powell said in remarks for appearances this week on Capitol Hill.

    Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024.
    Tierney L. Cross | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth.
    Setting the stage for a two-day appearance on Capitol Hill this week, the central bank leader said the economy remains strong as does the labor market, despite some recent cooling. Powell cited some easing in inflation, which he said policymakers stay resolute in bringing down to their 2% goal.

    “At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labor market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said in prepared remarks. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”
    The commentary coincides with the approaching one-year anniversary of the last time the Federal Open Market Committee raised benchmark interest rates.
    The Fed’s overnight borrowing rate currently sits in a rage of 5.25%-5.50%, the highest level in some 23 years and the product of 11 consecutive hikes after inflation hit its highest level since the early 1980s.
    Markets expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in September and likely following up with another quarter percentage point reduction by the end of the year. FOMC members at their June meeting, however, indicated just one cut.

    ‘Strengthen our confidence’

    In recent days, Powell and his colleagues have indicated that inflation data has been somewhat encouraging after a surprise jump to start the year. Inflation as judged by the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index was at 2.6% in May after peaking above 7% in June 2022.

    “After a lack of progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective in the early part of this year, the most recent monthly readings have shown modest further progress,” Powell said. “More good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
    The statement is part of congressionally mandated semiannual updates on monetary policy. After delivering the remarks, Powell will face questioning from Senate Banking Committee members on Tuesday, then the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
    In past appearances, Powell has veered away from making dramatic policy announcements while having to dodge politically loaded questions from committee members. The questioning could get contentious this year as Washington is on edge amid a volatile presidential campaign.
    Several Democratic committee members urged Powell to lower rates soon.
    “I’m concerned that if the Fed waits too long to lower rates, the Fed could undo the undo the progress we’ve made on creating good paying jobs,” Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), the committee chair, told Powell. “If unemployment trends upward, you must act immediately to protect Americans jobs. Workers have too much to lose if the Fed overshoots [its] inflation target and causes a completely unnecessary recession.”
    However, Powell has stressed that the Fed is not political and does not get involved in taking policy sides outside of its own roles. In his prepared remarks, he emphasized the importance of “the operational independence that is needed” for the Fed to do its job.
    His other remarks focused squarely on the stance of policy in relation to the broader economy. Recent data has shown the unemployment rate creeping higher and broad growth as measured by gross domestic product receding. Both the manufacturing and services sectors reported being in contraction during June.
    But Powell said the data is showing that “the U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace” despite the deceleration in GDP.
    “Private domestic demand remains robust, however, with slower but still-solid increases in consumer spending,” he said.

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    Fed Chair Powell Welcomes Cooling Inflation

    Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, delivered optimistic remarks to Senators as inflation and the job market slow gently.Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, indicated on Tuesday that recent inflation data had given the central bank more confidence that price increases were returning to normal, and that continued progress along these lines would help to pave the way toward a central bank rate cut.“The Committee has stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” Mr. Powell said.He added that data earlier this year failed to provide such confidence, but that recent inflation readings “have shown some modest further progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”Mr. Powell delivered the remarks on Tuesday in an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee. While Mr. Powell avoided zeroing in on a specific month for when the Fed might begin to cut interest rates, he also did little to push back on growing expectations that a reduction could come in September. Fed officials meet in late July, but few economists expect a move that early.Mr. Powell said he was “not going to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions” in response to a lawmaker question about when rate cuts might come.The chair’s congressional testimony came at a delicate moment for the central bank. Fed officials are trying to figure out when to begin cutting interest rates, which they have held at the highest rate in decades for roughly a year now. But as they weigh that choice, they must strike a careful balance: They want to keep borrowing costs high long enough to cool the economy and fully stamp out rapid inflation, but they also want to avoid overdoing it, which could crash the economy too much and cause a recession.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Reliability of U.S. Economic Data Is in Jeopardy, Study Finds

    A report says new approaches and increased spending are needed to ensure that government statistics remain dependable and free of political influence.Federal Reserve officials use government data to help determine when to raise or lower interest rates. Congress and the White House use it to decide when to extend jobless benefits or send out stimulus payments. Investors place billions of dollars worth of bets that are tied to monthly reports on job growth, inflation and retail sales.But a new study says the integrity of that data is in increasing jeopardy.The report, issued on Tuesday by the American Statistical Association, concludes that government statistics are reliable right now. But that could soon change, the study warns, citing factors including shrinking budgets, falling survey response rates and the potential for political interference.The authors — statisticians from George Mason University, the Urban Institute and other institutions — likened the statistical system to physical infrastructure like highways and bridges: vital, but often ignored until something goes wrong.“We do identify this sort of downward spiral as a threat, and that’s what we’re trying to counter,” said Nancy Potok, who served as chief statistician of the United States from 2017 to 2019 and was one of the report’s authors. “We’re not there yet, but if we don’t do something, that threat could become a reality, and in the not-too-distant future.”The report, “The Nation’s Data at Risk,” highlights the threats facing statistics produced across the federal government, including data on education, health, crime and demographic trends.But the risks to economic data are particularly notable because of the attention it receives from policymakers and investors. Most of that data is based on surveys of households or businesses. And response rates to government surveys have plummeted in recent years, as they have for private polls. The response rate to the Current Population Survey — the monthly survey of about 60,000 households that is the basis for the unemployment rate and other labor force statistics — has fallen to about 70 percent in recent months, from nearly 90 percent a decade ago.

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    Current Population Survey response rate
    Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Here’s Where Climate Change Is Driving Up Home Insurance Rates

    Source: Keys and Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Research (2024) Note: State average is shown in counties with few or no observations. Enid, Okla., surrounded by farms about 90 minutes north of Oklahoma City, has an unwelcome distinction: Home insurance is more expensive, relative to home values, than almost anywhere else in the country. Enid […] More

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    New Plan to Target Russia’s Oil Revenue Brings Debate in White House

    Treasury officials want to impose penalties on tankers that help Russian oil evade sanctions. White House aides worry that risks making gasoline more expensive.Officials in President Biden’s Treasury Department have proposed new actions aimed at crippling a fleet of aging oil tankers that are helping deliver Russian oil to buyers around the world in defiance of Western sanctions.Their effort is aimed at punishing Russia but it has stalled amid White House concerns over how it would affect energy prices ahead of the November election.In an attempt to drain Russia of money needed to continue fighting its war in Ukraine, the United States and its allies have imposed penalties and taken other novel steps to limit how much Moscow earns from selling oil abroad. But Russia has increasingly found ways around those limits, raising pressure on the Biden administration to tighten its enforcement efforts.Treasury officials want to do that, in part, by targeting a so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers that is allowing Russia to sell oil above a $60-per-barrel price cap that the United States and its allies imposed in 2022.That cap was intended to restrict Moscow’s ability to profit from its energy exports while allowing its oil to continue flowing on international markets to prevent a global price shock. But Russia has largely circumvented the cap, allowing it to reap huge profits to fund its war efforts.While Treasury officials want to knock Russian tankers out of commission, economic advisers inside the White House worry that would risk inflaming oil prices this summer and push up U.S. gasoline prices, which could hurt Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign. They have not signed off on the proposals, even as current and former Treasury officials present them with analyses suggesting the risks of a major effect on the oil market are low.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Job Growth Extends Streak, but Signs of Concern Emerge

    A gain of 206,000 in June exceeded forecasts. Hiring was concentrated in a few parts of the economy, however, and unemployment rose to 4.1 percent.Halfway through the year, and four years removed from the downturn set off by the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. job engine is still cruising — even if it shows increased signs of downshifting.Employers delivered another solid month of hiring in June, the Labor Department reported on Friday, adding 206,000 jobs in the 42nd consecutive month of job growth.At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of a point to 4.1 percent, up from 4 percent and surpassing 4 percent for the first time since November 2021.The gain in jobs was slightly greater than most analysts had forecast. But totals for the two previous months were revised downward, and the uptick in unemployment was unexpected. That has led many economists and investors to shift from having full faith in the jobs market to having some concern for it.“These numbers are good numbers,” said Claudia Sahm, the chief economist for New Century Advisors, cautioning against overly negative interpretations of the report.But “the importance of the unemployment rate is it can actually tell us a bit about where we might be going,” she added, noting that the rate had been drifting up since hitting a half-century low of 3.4 percent early last year.Wage growth slowed in JuneYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    Jobless rates rise in June for white, Black and Hispanic women but fall for men in the three racial groups

    The unemployment rate increased for women from white, Black and Hispanic racial groups in June.
    On the other hand, jobless rates fell last month for male workers from these demographic buckets.
    The labor force participation rate held steady for white workers but decreased for Black Americans. This number rose for both Asian and Hispanic Americans.

    Jobseekers attend the JobNewsUSA.com South Florida Job Fair held at the Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, on June 26, 2024.
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    The unemployment rate for women in white, Black and Hispanic racial groups rose in June in line with the overall trend, according to data released Friday by the Department of Labor.
    In June, white adult women saw their unemployment rate rise to 3.1% from 3.0% the month prior. The jobless rate similarly increased for Black and Hispanic women to 5.7% from 5.2% and 4.5% from 4.1%, respectively.

    This trend was in line with the overall unemployment rate, which edged higher to 4.1% from 4.0% last month.
    On the other hand, the unemployment rate fell for men in all three racial groups. The rate ticked down to 3.2% from 3.4% for white males, while falling to 4.2% from 4.7% for Hispanic men. Jobless rates also declined to 6.1% from 6.4% for Black men, although the category still has the highest unemployment rates among all the demographic groups.

    “We’ve seen a lot of gains for women in this pandemic, in this recovery — a lot of notable highs that they’ve experienced. They hit historic all-time highs in terms of their employment in the labor market. But we did see some softening among women in June, and that was accompanied by this rise for men,” said Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
    However, Gould noted that it’s curious this rise in female unemployment last month corresponded with an influx in jobs in health care and social assistance, which are traditionally not thought of as male-dominated fields.
    The unemployment rate for white workers in general stayed steady at 3.5%. This number fell to 4.9% from 5% for Hispanic workers but rose to 6.3% from 6.1% for Black Americans and 4.1% from 3.1% for Asian Americans. The jobless rates for Asian workers separated by gender were not readily available.

    Last month, the labor force participation rate — the percentage of the population that is either employed or actively seeking work — ticked higher to 62.6% from 62.5% in May.

    Among white workers, the rate steadied, while it fell to 62.7% from 62.9% for Black Americans. This compares with the labor force participation rate for Asian and Hispanic workers, which respectively rose to 65.9% from 65.3% and 67.5% from 67.3%.
    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report. More