Evelyn Reynolds

After largely staying out of the Fed’s business for his first two months in office, President Donald Trump is encouraging the central bank to cut interest rates as a backstop for his tariff plans.
Lower rates, however, could combine with tariffs to stir more inflation. Markets expect the Fed will wait until June before cutting.

U.S. President Donald Trump reacts as he meets NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not pictured), in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 13, 2025. 
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

After largely staying out of the Federal Reserve’s business during his first two months in office, President Donald Trump is pushing the central bank to cut interest rates as a backstop for his tariff plans.
In a post Wednesday night on Truth Social, Trump encouraged Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to ease policy as the administration enters the next phase of its aggressive trade policy.

“The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!”
The missive appeared just hours after the Powell-led Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep its key interest rate steady but indicated that two rate reductions are likely by the end of the year, assuming the quarter percentage point increments that policymakers prefer.
The April 2 reference is to when the administration will reveal the results of a study into global trade, likely resulting in further tariffs in an effort to level what it considers an unfair playing field.
At his post-meeting news conference, Powell addressed the tariff issue multiple times, largely reiterating the uncertain impact they could have as justifying the Fed’s cautious current stance. In addition, Powell indicated that the duties could raise inflation in the short run but the impacts then would recede over time.
“I think that’s kind of the base case. But as I said, we really can’t know that. We’re going to have to see how things actually work out,” he said.

Lower rates, however, could combine with tariffs to stir more inflation. Markets expect the Fed will wait until June before cutting. Fed rate reductions also don’t always feed directly into lower borrowing rates. In the best-case scenario, lower rates would help buttress rising prices that are expected to come from the levies.
In contrast to his first term in office, Trump had thus far taken a mostly hands-off approach to Fed policymaking, aside from a few comments he made shortly after taking office also coaxing the central bank to lower rates. Trump in January said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately,” though he didn’t follow through on the threat.
In fact, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that the White House is more focused on bringing down the 10-year Treasury yield to lower long-term borrowing costs than it is on the short-term federal funds rate that the Fed controls.
Trump berated Powell and the Fed the last time around for raising rates, at one point calling them “boneheads” and comparing the chair to a golfer who couldn’t putt.
Fed projections Wednesday indicated a full percentage point of cuts over the next three years for the funds rate, which is currently targeted between 4.25%-4.5%.

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The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for a second straight meeting. The March meeting was the central bank’s most direct acknowledgment to date that President Trump’s policies are set to have a real impact on the economy, stoking significant uncertainty about where inflation, growth and — ultimately — interest rates are headed. Here are the takeaways:Tariffs took center stage during the news conference with Jerome H. Powell. The Fed chair went as far as saying that tariffs likely mean “further progress may be delayed” on getting inflation back to the central bank’s 2 percent target. That recognition materialized in the higher inflation forecasts that officials penciled into new economic projections. By the end of the year, officials estimate that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, will stay stuck at 2.8 percent, before declining to 2.2 percent in 2027.Fed officials paired their higher inflation forecast with lower estimates for economic growth, even as they stuck with previous projections that they would be able to lower interest rates by a half point this year, delivering two quarter-point cuts. The range of possible outcomes was wide, however, with eight policymakers forecasting either no additional cuts or just one this year. Only two thought the Fed would lower rates by 0.75 percentage points, or three cuts of a quarter point this year.In recent months, Mr. Powell has been adamant that the Fed is well positioned to respond to sharp shifts in the trajectory for the economy and could afford to be patient about making rate decisions given the solid foundation of the labor market. He reiterated that point, pushing back on the souring of consumer expectations about inflation and economy that has shown up in recent survey data.While the path forward for interest rates and the economy was the main focus of the March meeting, the Fed’s decision to slow the pace at which it is reducing its balance sheet drew some attention. Mr. Powell said the idea was to reduce the possibility of market ructions in funding markets. More

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Economic projections the Fed released Wednesday indicate that while officials see inflation moving up this year more rapidly than previously expected, they also expect the trend to be short-lived.
The position is significant with markets concerned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could spark a broader global trade war that again would make inflation a problem for the U.S. economy.
Back in 2021, when inflation first rose past the Fed’s 2% target, Powell and his colleagues repeatedly said they expected the move to be transitory, a position that backfired.

The “good ship Transitory,” despite an ominous record, appears ready to sail again for the Federal Reserve.
Economic projections the central bank released Wednesday indicate that while officials see inflation moving up this year more rapidly than previously expected, they also expect the trend to be short-lived. The outlook spurred talk again about “transitory” inflation that caused a major policy headache for the Fed.

At his post-meeting news conference, Chair Jerome Powell said the current outlook is that any price jumps from tariffs likely will be short-lived.
Asked if the Fed is “back at transitory again,” the central bank leader responded, “So I think that’s kind of the base case. But as I said, we really can’t know that. We’re going to have to see how things actually work out.”
However, the Federal Open Market Committee outlook, with inflation hitting 2.8% in 2025 but quickly receding back to 2.2% then 2% in the succeeding years, indicates that officials do not expect a lasting burden from the tariffs.
“It can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation, if it’s going to go away quickly, without action by us, if it’s transitory,” Powell said. “That can be the case in the case of tariff inflation. I think that would depend on the tariff inflation moving through fairly quickly and, critically, as well on inflation expectations being well anchored.”
Powell added that while sentiment surveys show some short-term inflation indicators have risen, market-based measures for longer-run expectations are well-anchored.

Worries over tariffs

The position is significant with markets concerned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could spark a broader global trade war that again would make inflation a problem for the U.S. economy. Inflation had appeared to be on the run heading into this year, but the outlook is less certain now.
Back in 2021, when inflation first rose past the Fed’s 2% target, Powell and his colleagues repeatedly said they expected the move to be transitory, brought on by Covid-specific factors impacting supply and demand that ultimately would fade. However, inflation kept rising, eventually hitting 9% as measured by the consumer price index, and the Fed was forced to respond with a series of aggressive interest rate hikes not seen since the early 1980s.
In a speech last August at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole summit, Powell even joked that “the good ship Transitory was a crowded one,” and he told attendees that “I think I see some former shipmates out there today.”
The room chuckled at Powell’s remarks, and the market Wednesday didn’t seem to mind the transitory talk. Stocks jumped as Powell spoke, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 383 points to 41,964, a reversal of fortune for a market in decline lately.
“‘Transitory’ is back, or at least that was the insinuation,” said Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management. “The market reaction, to me, says that investors are willing to believe that tariffs and other policies won’t create lasting inflationary pressures and that the Fed can stay in control.”
The Fed voted to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold as it weighs the impact of tariffs and fiscal policy from Trump. In addition, Federal Open Market Committee officials indicated that two more quarter percentage point rate cuts could be on the way this year, though Powell cautioned again that policy is not locked in, nor is the transitory inflation view on tariffs.
“We will be watching all of it very, very carefully. We do not take anything for granted,” he said. More

Labor groups said working conditions had not changed enough to warrant the removal. The company is partly owned by donors to President Trump.The Trump administration on Monday quietly rescinded an order that had blocked a major Dominican sugar producer with political ties to President Trump from shipping sugar to the United States because of allegations of forced labor at the company.U.S. Customs and Border Protection modified a “withhold release order” that had been issued in 2022 for raw sugar and sugar products made by the Central Romana Corporation, blocking exports to the United States from the company. The Customs website now lists the order as “inactive.”Labor right groups expressed frustration at the change, saying that Central Romana, whose sugar had been sold in the United States under the Domino brand, had not significantly improved its labor practices.“We haven’t seen a significant enough change to warrant modification,” said Allie Brudney, a senior staff attorney at Corporate Accountability Lab, which has been monitoring working conditions on Dominican sugar farms. “This is a disappointing outcome, but we will continue to support workers in their fight for better conditions.”A U.S. official, who declined to be named because the person was not authorized to speak publicly, said that the decision to rescind the rule and allow the company to begin exporting had not followed established processes. The official cited Central Romana’s powerful ownership, and said that the decision was most likely made at the top levels of U.S. Customs and Border Protection.Hilton Beckham, an assistant commissioner of public affairs for Customs and Border Protection, confirmed that the order had been modified, saying that the decision followed “documented improvements to labor standards, verified by independent sources.” She declined to disclose those sources, citing confidentiality reasons.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key rate steady on Wednesday, after a series of cuts that lowered rates by a full percentage point last year.That means consumers looking to borrow are likely to have to wait a bit longer for better deals on many loans, but savers will benefit from steadier yields on savings accounts.Economists don’t expect another rate cut for a while, as the central bank waits for more clarity on an increasingly uncertain outlook given President Trump’s policies on tariffs, immigration, widespread federal job cuts, among other things.The Fed’s benchmark rate is set at a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent. In an effort to tamp down sky-high inflation, the central bank began lifting rates rapidly — from near zero to above 5 percent — between March 2022 and July 2023. Prices have cooled considerably since then, and the Fed pivoted to rate cuts, lowering rates in September, November and December.More recently,Mr. Trump’s inflation-stoking polices could prompt the Fed to delay more rate cuts. But at the same time, longer-term interest rates set by the markets have been drifting down, influencing a wide range of consumer and business borrowing costs.Here’s what to watch for in five areas of your financial life:Auto RatesCredit CardsMortgagesSavings Accounts and C.D.sStudent LoansWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to release their first set of economic projections this year, alongside their interest rate decision, on Wednesday. Those forecasts will offer a fresh glimpse of the trajectory for monetary policy at a highly uncertain moment for the central bank.Policymakers paused interest rate cuts in January after reducing borrowing costs by a percentage point in the latter half of last year. They are expected to again stand pat on Wednesday as they await greater clarity on how far President Trump will push his global trade war and to what extent he will follow through on other central aspects of his agenda, including slashing government spending and deporting migrants.The big question now is when — and to some extent whether — the Fed will be able to restart cuts this year.When the Fed last released quarterly economic projections in December, officials penciled in two rate cuts that would reduce borrowing costs by half a percentage point in 2025. But economists now expect Mr. Trump’s policies to lead to more intense price pressures and slower growth, a tough dynamic for the central bank and one that could prompt policymakers to scale back how many cuts they project going forward.Here’s what could change and how to interpret those updates.The dot plot, decodedWhen the central bank releases its Summary of Economic Projections each quarter, Fed watchers focus on one part in particular: the dot plot.The dot plot will show Fed policymakers’ estimates for interest rates through 2027 and over the longer run. The forecasts are represented by dots arranged along a vertical scale — one dot for each of the central bank’s 19 officials.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

President Trump has never been shy about criticizing the Federal Reserve, frequently seeking to pressure the nation’s central bank into reducing interest rates more swiftly.“Interest Rates should be lowered, something which would go hand in hand with upcoming Tariffs!!!,” Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social last month, adding: “Lets Rock and Roll, America!!!”But the Fed is expected to see things differently on Wednesday — choosing to hold rates steady in the face of rising prices and slowing growth — in a move that seems destined to stoke Mr. Trump’s anger.At the heart of the tension are Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which he has promised to apply more expansively beginning April 2. The White House contends its protectionist policies can rejuvenate American manufacturing and reduce the country’s reliance on imports, but economists believe that Mr. Trump risks touching off a protracted global trade war that will badly harm the U.S. economy.The latest dour projection arrived Tuesday, when Fitch Ratings cut its U.S. growth forecast for this year to 1.7 percent from 2.1 percent. It explicitly pointed to Mr. Trump’s tariffs — and the “huge uncertainty” around them — as two of the drivers behind a potential economic slowdown and short-term rise in prices.The uncertainty is likely to freeze any rate cutting at the Fed, perhaps straining an already tortured relationship between Mr. Trump and Jerome H. Powell, the man he handpicked to serve as chair of the central bank in 2017.In his first term, the president described Mr. Powell as the “enemy,” and blasted his colleagues as “boneheads,” in a bid to browbeat the Fed into slashing interest rates. Mr. Trump at one point even considered firing Mr. Powell, raising fears that the White House might try to undermine the Fed’s political independence.Soon after returning to the White House, the president revived his attacks: He said, again, that he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately,” and one of his leading advisers — the tech billionaire Elon Musk — signaled support for an audit of the central bank. When the Fed chose to hold rates steady at its last meeting, Mr. Trump charged anew that Mr. Powell and the Fed had “failed to stop the problem they created with inflation.”“If the Fed had spent less time on DEI, gender ideology, ‘green’ energy, and fake climate change, Inflation would never have been a problem,” Mr. Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. More