More stories

  • in

    Bank of America’s CEO says economic growth is ‘better than people think’ and the Fed should stay on hold

    Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said Wednesday that consumers are continuing to spend and economic growth should be solid though slower this year.
    From a numbers standpoint, that means gross domestic product growth this year of closer to 2% from recent trends closer to 3%, according to the CEO.
    “We see the consumer continue to be solid, and that should bode well for the economy,” he added.

    Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said Wednesday that consumers are continuing to spend and economic growth should be solid though slower this year.
    Despite surveys indicating that confidence is at a nearly three-year low amid increasing worries about inflation, Moynihan told CNBC that spending data shows consumers are still shelling out money, though shifting away from goods and into services.

    “We’re in this classic moment … where the consumer is saying, ‘I’m getting more pessimistic,’ in some of the surveys and things like that,” he said during a “Squawk Box” interview. “But if you actually look what they’re doing day to day, they continue to spend, which means the economy ought to be holding up better than people think.”
    From a numbers standpoint, that means gross domestic product growth this year of closer to 2% from recent trends closer to 3%, according to the banking chief. Some of the slowdown will come from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which Moynihan estimated will cut about 0.4 percentage point off growth in the near term before the economy adjusts.
    However, he called the 2% level “trend growth. That’s what we’ve all been trying to get to for 10 or 15 years after the financial crisis.”
    “We see the consumer continue to be solid, and that should bode well for the economy,” Moynihan added. “There’s a lot of questions out there, and I think that will sort through. But right now, we’re not talking about what could happen, we’re talking about is happening. The consumer continues to spend pretty strongly for the first part of this year.”

    Fed outlook

    The interview came the same day that the Federal Reserve will issue its latest decision on interest rates. Markets give almost no chance to a reduction at the meeting, and Moynihan backed up the bank’s call that not only will the central bank not move Wednesday, but it also will be on hold through 2026.

    “I would think, though that the Fed would be a little cautious about cutting, not knowing what the impact of tariffs is going to be,” he said. “It would seem that maybe they’d want to hold on to the firepower that they’ve built up over the last year or so… They shouldn’t be premature to try to boost the economy when it’s growing at 2%.”
    Moynihan added that it would be better to keep interest rates had a “real interest rate” that was closer to 3% than the near-zero that was prevalent from the financial crisis into the Covid pandemic. More

  • in

    Trump Has Hinted at a Xi Visit. China Is Still Wondering What He Wants.

    Chinese experts say Beijing is open to talks but is being stonewalled by the State Department and other official channels.President Trump fueled new speculation this week about a meeting with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, when he told reporters that Washington needed to be cleaned up to prepare for a summit between the two leaders in the “not too distant future.”Mr. Trump provided no details, and China has said nothing publicly about any such meeting. The stakes of a visit would be high: President Trump has imposed 20 percent tariffs on China’s shipments to the United States, and may order another round next month. China wants to try to head off further escalations in the trade war that would set back its efforts to revive the country’s beleaguered economy, experts say.But before any summit can take place, China still needs answers to two pressing questions: What does Mr. Trump want? Who can Beijing talk to in Washington who Mr. Trump might listen to?To try to answer these questions, China sent scholars to the United States to take part in unofficial diplomatic talks last month with Trump administration officials and American foreign policy experts. China has grown concerned that the officials Beijing have been dealing with at the State Department and the National Security Council, who are outside Mr. Trump’s inner circle, are not conveying their messages to him, some of the scholars said.“We talk through the diplomatic channel. That’s the normal channel. But can that reach President Trump? Do those people we talked to really know what President Trump is thinking?” said Da Wei, the director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, who was among the scholars.China has also been publicly signaling its interest in talks. The Chinese commerce minister said earlier this month that he wrote a letter to the U.S. commerce secretary and U.S. trade representative inviting them to meet. And Chinese officials describing Beijing’s efforts to curtail the production of fentanyl last week urged the United States to return to dialogue.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    Bank of England expected to keep rates on hold amid headwinds it can’t fully predict or control

    The central bank is highly likely to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% at its March meeting.
    The latest monetary policy decision comes at a time of heightened uncertainty over potential trade tariffs and as the U.K economy shows signs of stalling, with monthly growth data showing anemic output.
    Thursday’s meeting comes just days before U.K. government taxation changes come into force that have proven unpopular with businesses, which say their rising tax burden could dent growth further.

    The Bank of England in London on Feb. 12, 2024.
    Henry Nicholls | Afp | Getty Images

    The Bank of England is widely expected to hold interest rates when it meets on Thursday, as the U.K. faces economic headwinds both at home and abroad.
    The central bank is highly likely to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% at its March meeting, given the unpredictability of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and a fledgling global trade war, and how those factors could affect inflation in the U.K.

    The BOE is also convening as the U.K economy shows signs of stalling, with monthly growth data showing anemic output. Thursday’s meeting comes just days before U.K. government taxation changes come into force that have proven unpopular with businesses, which say their rising tax burden could dent growth, investment and jobs.
    For its part, the Bank of England already warned at its last meeting in February that it would tread carefully, as it downgraded the U.K.’s growth forecast for 2025 and predicted a temporary rise in the rate of inflation to 3.7% — above the bank’s target of 2% — which BOE policymakers said would be caused by higher energy prices.
    As for Trump’s tariffs, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned earlier in March that potential trade duties were another threat to the country’s economy, and growth, telling British lawmakers that “the risks to the U.K. economy, and indeed the world economy, are substantial” and that U.K. citizens would have less money “in their pockets” as a result of tariffs.

    Dissent in the committee

    In February, a majority of seven members out of the nine-strong monetary policy committee voted in favor of a cut, with two of the MPC’s members, including well-known “hawk” Catherine Mann, voting for a larger trim.
    Economists say the voting split of Thursday will be closely watched.

    “There are visible signs of disagreement at the Bank of England on the pace of rate cuts required this year. But with wage growth and inflation remaining sticky, we expect the Bank to keep rates on hold this Thursday, ahead of the next rate cut in May,” James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, said in a note Monday.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, during a financial stability report news conference at the central bank’s headquarters in London on Nov. 29, 2024.
    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    “Drama is not often synonymous with the Bank of England. But February’s meeting was nothing short of a bombshell. [BOE committee member] Catherine Mann, who for months had led the opposition to rate cuts, surprised everyone with her vote for a 50 basis point rate cut. And that posed the question: if the arch-hawk is prepared to vote for faster rate cuts, will the rest of the committee soon follow suit?,” Smith questioned.
    “For all the excitement, the answer seems to be no. Most officials that have spoken since have struck a much more cautious tone,” he noted, with ING predicting three more rate cuts will take place this year. It nevertheless conceded that inflationary pressures are putting the central bank in an “uncomfortable position.”

    Budget changes?

    The BoE is meeting days before the U.K. Treasury’s “Spring Statement” on March 26, when British Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents an update on her plans for the British economy.
    The finance minister is coming under pressure to cut public spending, raise taxes further or to bend the government’s self-imposed fiscal rules amid higher borrowing costs, with the yield on U.K. debt picking up in recent months. The treasury has mooted the idea of cutting spending on welfare payments, but the idea remains controversial among lawmakers in the center-left Labour government.
    Reeves’ ‘Spring Statement’ will be announced alongside economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the U.K.’s independent economic and fiscal forecaster, which gives its assessment on the likely impact of the government’s taxation and spending plans that were announced last fall.
    That budget included £40 billion ($51.9 billion) worth of tax rises — with the burden falling mainly on businesses — to plug a black hole in the public finances and allow for investment in public services.

    Rachel Reeves, U.K. finance minister, speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 22, 2025.
    Gerry Miller | CNBC

    The OBR is widely expected to downgrade its U.K. economic forecasts, putting further pressure on Reeves to amend her policy plans.
    “It was not supposed to be like this. U.K. chancellor Rachel Reeves planned to present the government’s official biannual forecast on 26 March without making any changes to policy. However, a rise in market interest rates, high borrowing in fiscal year 2024-25, and a possible downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s productivity growth assumption have conspired against her,” Andrew Wishart, senior U.K. economist at Berenberg Bank, said in analysis Monday.
    “Without spending cuts or tax rises, the OBR would forecast the government missing its fiscal rule of funding day-to-day spending entirely with tax revenue by 2029-30. To avoid six months of speculation about how Reeves will make up the shortfall in the next fully-fledged budget in the autumn, the chancellor must act now,” he added. More

  • in

    Trump policies ‘promise’ an economic downturn, says prominent forecaster in first-ever ‘recession watch’

    U.S. Vice President JD Vance (C) exits the Oval Office in the opposite direction as U.S. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk (R) walk away before departing the White House on March 14, 2025.
    Roberto Schmidt | Afp | Getty Images

    The UCLA Anderson Forecast, citing substantial changes to the economy from policies of the Trump administration, issued its first-ever “recession watch” on Tuesday.
    UCLA Anderson, which has been issuing forecasts since 1952, said the administration’s tariff and immigration policies and plans to reduce the federal workforce could combine to cause the economy to contract. 

    Its analysis was titled, “Trump Policies, If Fully Enacted, Promise a Recession.”
    “While there are no signs of a recession happening yet, it is entirely possible that one could form in the near term,” stated a news release from the forecaster. 
    U.S. recessions are only officially declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The committee employs a variety of indicators, including production, employment, income and growth to determine if the economy is contracting. At the moment, none of the specific indicators look to be near levels that would prompt the committee to declare recession. 
    The average respondent to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, published Tuesday, forecast a 36% recession probability in the next year, up from 23% in the prior month. But it remains well below the 50% level that prevailed from 2022 and 2023 in the wake of the pandemic and turned out to be wrong. That shows how difficult it is to predict a recession, or even determine if the economy is in one. The Fed Survey also shows that a recession is not the base case for most Wall Street forecasters, only that the concern is somewhat elevated.
    Recessions occur when multiple sectors of the economy contract at the same time. The UCLA Anderson Forecast said reductions to the workforce from the administration’s immigration policies could create labor shortages, tariffs will raise prices and could lead to a contraction in the manufacturing sector while changes to federal spending will reduce employment for government workers and private contractors.

    “If these and their consequent feedback into the demand for goods and services occur simultaneously, they create a recipe for a recession,” the statement from the forecaster said. 

    ‘Stagflationary’

    Administration officials, from the President to his top economic lieutenants, have not specifically pushed back against the possibility of recession from their policies. President Trump has said there would be a “period of transition,” while the Commerce Secretary had said a recession will be “worth it” for the gains that will eventually come from the policies.
    Recessions are often the result of unexpected shocks to the economy. The surge in optimism following the election of President Trump, followed by the recent sharp drop off in some surveys, suggest that both businesses and consumers were unprepared for the extent and even the nature of some of the policies now being pursued. 
    On timing, the UCLA Anderson Forecast would only say a recession could develop in the next year or two. Its report said: “Weaknesses are beginning to emerge in households’ spending patterns. And the financial sector, with elevated asset valuations and newly introduced areas of risk, is primed to amplify any downturn. What’s more, the recession could end up being stagflationary.” More

  • in

    The Fed will update its rate projections Wednesday. Here’s what to expect

    Fed officials at this week’s meeting are expected to hold interest rates steady but adjust their views on the economy and possibly the future path of interest rates.
    The committee could maintain its outlook for two cuts, remove one or both, or, improbably, add another as a statement of concern over a potential slowdown. Everything seems to be on the table.
    Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues in recent weeks have advocated a patient approach in which they don’t need to be in a hurry to do anything.

    U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., Feb. 11, 2025. 
    Craig Hudson | Reuters

    Federal Reserve officials at this week’s meeting are expected to hold interest rates steady but adjust their views on the economy and possibly the future path for interest rates.
    If market pricing is correct, there’s virtually no chance central bank policymakers budge from the current level of their key interest rate, targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues in recent weeks have advocated a patient approach in which they don’t need to be in a hurry to do anything.

    However, they are also expected to drop clues about where things go from here against the uncertain backdrop of President Donald Trump’s trade and fiscal policies. That could include anything from tweaks in projections for inflation and economic growth to how often, if at all, they expect to lower interest rates further.
    “There’s no chance of a cut Wednesday, so all the other stuff becomes more important,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “They’re basically going to say, ‘You know what, we are in no hurry at all now.'”
    Indeed, that has been the prevailing message from Powell and his Federal Open Market Committee colleagues. In a speech earlier this month to economists in New York, Powell insisted “there is no need to be in a hurry” as central bankers seek “greater clarity” on where the Trump administration is headed.
    New outlook for GDP, inflation, unemployment
    The public, then, will be left to pore through updates the Fed makes to its quarterly projections on interest rates, gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation. Based on recent data, the Fed could raise its 2025 outlook for inflation (in December, the outlook was for 2.5% in both core and headline) while lowering its GDP projection (from 2.1%). Powell will host his usual post-meeting news conference.
    On the rate question, the Federal Open Market Committee will use its “dot plot” grid of individual members’ intentions.

    There’s significant disagreement on what could happen there. The committee could maintain its December outlook for two cuts, remove one or both, or, improbably, add another as a statement of concern over a potential slowdown. Everything seems to be on the table.

    “I think it may be one or zero cuts this year, particularly if the tariffs stick,” North said. “I don’t think they’re going to try and bail out the economy by cutting rates, because they know that if they stoke inflation, they’re going to have to go back and start all over again.”
    Economists worry the Trump tariffs could reignite inflation, particularly if the president gets more aggressive after the White House releases a global review of the tariff situation on April 2. If the Fed grows more concerned about tariff-fueled inflation, it could turn even more reluctant to cut.
    Investors are right to be concerned about the direction the FOMC indicates, said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie.
    “That worry is borne by the suspicion the Fed is not ‘in charge’ anymore, having relinquished control of macroeconomic policy to the Trump administration,” Wizman wrote. “Given the current uncertainty, and the recent increase in inflation expectations, the Fed may find it difficult to signal three more rate cuts, or even two more. It could push one rate cut into 2026, leaving only one cut in the median ‘dot’ for 2025.”
    Markets still see two or three cuts
    Should the Fed decide to stick with two cuts, it likely will be only “to avoid adding to recent market turbulence,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a note.
    Major stock market averages are hovering around correction territory, or 10% declines from highs.
    In the past, under the idea of a “Fed put,” markets have come to expect the central bank to ease policy in response to market unrest. Traders don’t expect an initial rate reduction to happen until at least June, and are pricing in one additional quarter percentage point easing and about a 50-50 chance of a third move by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure of fed funds futures pricing.
    But that might even be too ambitious, Wizman said.
    “In effect, markets appear to have gotten too dovish on the Fed, and instead of signaling its own confidence in its outlook, the Fed may issue signals of no-confidence, instead. In other words, the FOMC meeting may leave many questions unanswered, as will the press conference by Jay Powell,” he said, using Powell’s nickname.
    The committee also could address its “quantitative tightening” program where it is allowing a set level of proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off the balance sheet each month. Markets widely expect the Fed to end the program later this year, and recent meetings have featured discussion about how best to handle the central bank’s $6.4 trillion portfolio of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. More

  • in

    Trump Says a Recession Would Be Worth It, but Economists Are Skeptical

    President Trump and his advisers say his policies may cause short-term pain but will produce big gains over time. Many economists are skeptical of those arguments.Presidents usually do all they can to avoid recessions, so much so that they avoid even saying the word.But President Trump and his advisers in recent weeks have offered a very different message. Yes, a recession is possible, they have said. Maybe one wouldn’t even be that bad.Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, has said Mr. Trump’s policies are “worth it” even if they cause a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has said the economy may need a “detox period” after becoming dependent on government spending. And Mr. Trump has said there will be a “period of transition” as his policies take effect.Such comments may partly reflect an effort to align political statements with economic reality. Mr. Trump promised to end inflation “starting on Day 1” and declared, in his inaugural address, that “the golden age of America begins right now.”Instead, inflation has remained stubborn, and while Mr. Trump has been in office less than two months, economists warn that his tariffs are likely to make it worse. Measures of consumer and business confidence have plummeted and stock prices have tumbled, attributable in large part to Mr. Trump’s policies and the uncertainty they have caused.“It’s the kind of language that you use when your policy isn’t going great and you can see that it’s actively harming people,” said Sean Vanatta, a financial historian at the University of Glasgow in Scotland.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    Retail sales increased 0.2% in February, though spending up less than expected

    Retail sales increased 0.2% on the month, better than the downwardly revised decline of 1.2% the prior month but below the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.6% increase.
    The so-called control group, which strips out non-core sectors and feeds directly into gross domestic product calculations, rose a better than expected 1%.
    Also, the New York Fed’s measure of factory activity in the region posted an unexpectedly sharp drop for March.

    Consumers spent at a slower than expected pace in February, though underlying readings indicated that sales still grew at a solid pace despite worries over an economic slowdown and rising inflation.
    Retail sales increased 0.2% on the month, better than the downwardly revised decline of 1.2% the prior month but below the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.6% increase, according to the advanced reading Monday from the Commerce Department. Excluding autos, the increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations.

    The sales number is adjusted for seasonal factors but not for inflation. Prices rose 0.2% on the month, according to a previous Labor Department report, indicating that spending was about on pace with inflation.
    The so-called control group, which strips out non-core sectors and feeds directly into gross domestic product calculations, rose a better than expected 1%.
    “Not a great report, but one still in positive territory despite how pessimistic consumers are about the future,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “But the main factor in consumer spending is consumer income, and that’s growing at a good rate and had an impressive leap in January.”
    Online spending helped boost the sales number for the month, with nonstore retailers reporting a 2.4% increase. Health and personal care showed a 1.7% gain while food and beverage outlets saw a 0.4% increase.
    On the downside, bars and restaurants reported a 1.5% decrease while gas stations were off 1% amid falling prices at the pump.

    Sales overall increased 3.1% on a year over year basis, better than the 2.8% inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index.
    One other downbeat note from the report was a steep revision for January, which originally was reported as a 0.9% decline.
    The release comes amid heightened worries over economic growth, particularly as President Donald Trump engages in an aggressive tariff battle with leading U.S. trading partners. Economists worry that the tariffs will drive up inflation and slow the economy.
    “Consumers and businesses are expected to pull back on spending when they’re unable to make informed decisions about the future of the economy and their place within it,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at personal finance site NerdWallet. “Currently, direct economic policies and broad federal policies with indirect economic impact are in flux, making informed decisions difficult.”
    Some indicators, such as the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker of economic data, are showing that growth could be negative in the first quarter, though the solid reading for control retail sales could result in an upward revision later today.
    In other economic news Monday, the New York Fed’s measure of factory activity in the region posted an unexpectedly sharp drop for March.
    The Empire State Manufacturing Survey posted a reading of -20 for the month, representing the difference between companies seeing expansion against contraction. The number indicated a drop from the 5.7 level in February and was well below the estimate for -1.8.
    New orders posted a sharp slide, with the index tumbling to -26.3, down 14.9 points. Shipments also were off significantly. On inflation, indexes for prices paid and received also rose. More

  • in

    U.S. and global economic outlooks cut by OECD as Trump’s trade tariffs weigh on growth

    Global growth is expected to slow from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, according to the OECD. It had previously forecast 3.3% global economic growth this year and next.
    The U.S.’s annual GDP growth is also projected to fall to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 — down from earlier forecasts of 2.4% this year and 2.1% next year.
    “A series of recently announced trade policy measures will have implications for the economic outlook if sustained,” the OECD said.

    Both U.S. and global economic growth is set to be lower than previously projected as President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. weigh on growth, according to the latest estimates from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
    “Global GDP growth is projected to moderate from 3.2% in 2024, to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, with higher trade barriers in several G20 economies and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty weighing on investment and household spending,” the OECD said Monday in its interim Economic Outlook report.

    “Annual GDP growth in the United States is projected to slow from its strong recent pace, to be 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.”
    In its previous projections, published in December, the OECD had estimated 3.3% global economic growth this year and next. The U.S. economy had been expected to grow 2.4% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.
    Mathias Cormann, secretary-general of the OECD, on Monday said that the uncertainty around trade policy was a key factor in the organization’s projections.
    “There’s a very significant level of uncertainty right now, and you know it is clear that the global economy would benefit from increases in certainty when it comes to the trade policy settings,” he told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.
    In its report, the OECD said its latest projections were “based on an assumption that bilateral tariffs between Canada and the United States and between Mexico and the United States are raised by an additional 25 percentage points on almost all merchandise imports from April.”

    If the tariff increases were lower, or applied to fewer goods, economic activity would be stronger and inflation would be lower than projected, “but global growth would still be weaker than previously expected,” the report noted.

    Canada and Mexico, both on the receiving end of tariffs imposed by the U.S., saw their growth outlooks slashed dramatically. Canada’s economy is now expected to grow 0.7% this year, down from the previous 2% estimate, and Mexico’s is projected to shrink by 1.3% — compared to a previously estimated 1.2% expansion.
    The OECD also updated its inflation forecast, saying price growth was set to be higher than previously expected, but would ease due to moderating economic growth.
    “What we see is that inflation will continue to go down, but that inflation is expected to go down more slowly,” Cormann told CNBC. “What we are suggesting is that some of the measures in relation to trade, some of the measures in relation to tariffs, and the related policy uncertainty, certainly are having an impact on inflation.”
    Headline inflation in the U.S. is now expected to come in at 2.8% in 2025 according to the latest figures, up from the 2.1% December estimate, while the projection for G20 economies has risen from 3.5% in December to 3.8% in Monday’s report.
    “Core inflation is now projected to remain above central bank targets in many countries in 2026, including the United States,” the OECD added.
    OECD head Cormann said central bankers should now “remain vigilant.”
    “Certainly, if inflation expectations remain anchored, we do believe that in even major economies like the United States and the United Kingdom, there is scope for further policy easing,” he said, but pointed out that in some major economies the pace of inflation easing has slowed or inflation has picked back up.

    Trade policy tensions

    The OECD linked much of its update to economic growth and inflation estimates to geopolitical and trade tensions — issues that have dominated markets in recent weeks and months.
    “A series of recently announced trade policy measures will have implications for the economic outlook if sustained,” the OECD said, pointing to the tariffs imposed, or threatened by, Trump, and potential retaliatory duties imposed by its trading partners.
    Trump’s tariff policies have been marked by uncertainty over recent weeks, as negotiations and retaliation threats continue. The president has flipped-flopped over when tariffs will be imposed, which goods they will apply to and how high they will be, although he insisted last week that he wasn’t “going to bend at all.”
    “If the announced trade policy actions persist, as assumed in the projections, the new bilateral tariff rates will raise revenues for the governments imposing them but will be a drag on global activity, incomes and regular tax revenues. They also add to trade costs, raising the price of covered imported final goods for consumers and intermediate inputs for businesses,” the OECD said.
    Asked if he agreed with U.S. President Trump’s position that his trade policies could involve short-term pain, but long-term benefits for the country’s economy, the OECD’s Cormann said that lower global economic growth and higher inflation would have “flow on consequences” for the U.S.
    If trade tariffs were reversed, there would be a “positive impact” on global growth, and therefore also U.S. economic growth, he said.
    Cormann said that it was important to keep markets open and ensure they are functional and to have “rules based trading system in good working order,” adding that any issues should be resolved through cooperation and dialogue.
    “We would encourage everyone to engage with each other and to honestly and openly, work through the issues at hand and try and find the best possible way forward without having to resort to tariffs and other trade restricting measures,” he said. More