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    World Braces for Bigger Trade Wars if Trump Wins

    Business owners and foreign governments are preparing for high tariffs and trade disruptions, depending on the outcome of the election.When you’re in the whiskey business, you’re always making predictions about the future.From the time grain grown around the Midwest enters Sonat Birnecker Hart’s distillery on the North Side of Chicago, it will be four to 10 years before the whiskey is shipped to buyers. So running her business requires careful projections about demand.Those calculations have become harder of late. With the U.S. presidential election looming, many businesses around the world are facing uncertainty about the future of American trade policy and the tariffs that products will face in global markets.For the whiskey industry, the stakes are particularly high. In March, a 50 percent tariff on American whiskey exports to Europe will snap into effect unless the European Union and the United States can come to an agreement to stop the levies.The outcome may depend on who is in office. Both former President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have embraced tariffs, but their plans differ significantly. Ms. Harris’s campaign has said she would use tariffs in a “targeted” fashion — possibly mirroring the approach of President Biden, who recently imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, silicon chips and solar panels. Like Mr. Biden, she has emphasized working closely with allies.Mr. Trump, in contrast, has said his approach to trade would be even more aggressive than the trade wars of his first term, when he imposed stiff tariffs on allies and rivals to obtain concessions and try to bolster American manufacturing. He has proposed a 60 percent tariff on products from China and a tariff of more than 10 percent on other goods from around the world.A 50 percent tariff on American whiskey exports to Europe will take effect in March unless the United States and European Union reach an agreement.Taylor Glascock for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Hurricane Helene Deaths Will Continue for Years, Study Suggests

    Research on hundreds of tropical storms finds that mortality keeps rising for more than a decade afterward, for reasons you might not expect.Over the past week, the official death toll from Hurricane Helene has surpassed 100 as the vortex creeping inland from Florida submerged homes and swept away cars. But the full weight of lost lives will be realized only years from now — and it could number in the thousands.A paper published in the journal Nature on Wednesday lays out the hidden toll of tropical storms in the continental United States. Looking at 501 events from 1930 to 2015, researchers found that the average tropical storm resulted in an additional 7,000 to 11,000 deaths over the 15 years that followed.Overall during the study period, tropical storms killed more people than automobile crashes, infectious diseases and combat for U.S. soldiers. It’s such a big number — especially compared with the 24 direct deaths caused by hurricanes on average, according to federal statistics — that the authors spent years checking the math to make sure they were right.“The scale of these results is dramatically different from what we expected,” said Solomon Hsiang, a professor of global environmental policy at the Doerr School of Sustainability at Stanford University, who conducted the study with Rachel Young, the Ciriacy-Wantrup postdoctoral fellow at the University of California, Berkeley.The pair used a technique that has also provided a more complete understanding of “excess deaths” caused by Covid-19 and heat waves. It works by looking at typical mortality patterns and isolating anomalies that could have been caused only by the variable under study — in this case, a sizable storm.Previously, researchers examined deaths and hospitalizations after hurricanes over much shorter periods. One study published in Nature found elevated hospitalizations among older Medicaid patients in the week after a storm. Another, in The Journal of the American Medical Association, associated higher death rates with U.S. counties hit by cyclones. A study in The Lancet found that across 14 countries, cyclones led to a 6 percent bump in mortality in the ensuing two weeks.Deaths from tropical storms in the U.S. have been spiking Fatalities connected to storms that struck as many as 15 years ago – measured as the number of deaths above what would otherwise be expected – are rising faster as storms increase in frequency.

    Source: Solomon Hsiang and Rachel YoungBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Private payrolls show better-than-expected growth of 143,000 in September, ADP says

    Private companies added 143,000 jobs in September, an acceleration from 103,000 in August and better than the 128,000 consensus forecast, ADP reported Wednesday.
    Job gains were fairly widespread, with leisure and hospitality leading at 34,000, followed by construction (26,000) and education and health services (24,000).

    Private sector hiring picked up in September, indicating the labor market is holding its ground despite some signs of weakness, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.
    Companies added 143,000 jobs for the month, an acceleration from the upwardly revised 103,000 in August and better than the 128,000 consensus forecast from economists polled by Dow Jones.

    While hiring increased, the rate of pay growth took another step down. The 12-month gain for those staying in their jobs nudged lower to 4.7%, while tumbling to 6.6% for job switchers, down 0.7 percentage point from August.
    Job gains were fairly widespread, with leisure and hospitality leading at 34,000, followed by construction (26,000), education and health services (24,000), professional and business services (20,000) and other services (17,000).
    Information services was the lone category posting a loss, down 10,000.
    Service providers accounted for 101,000 of the total, with goods producers adding the rest.
    From a size standpoint, all of the growth came from companies with more than 50 employees. Small firms saw a loss, with those employing fewer than 20 workers down by 13,000.

    The ADP count comes two days ahead of the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show growth of 150,000, following August’s disappointing showing of 142,000, of which 118,000 came from private sector hiring.
    While the ADP report serves as a precursor to the official count, the two can differ, sometimes by wide margins.
    Federal Reserve officials are watching the jobs numbers closely as they contemplate the next move for monetary policy and interest rates. In a speech Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized the labor market as “solid” while noting that it has “clearly cooled” over the past year.
    The Fed is expected to follow up its half percentage point rate cut in September with further reductions in November and December. The main question is whether the central bank will move in the same large increment or pivot back to a more conventional quarter-point move.
    Futures market pricing currently points to a quarter-point cut in November then a half-point move in December. Powell indicated that consecutive quarter-point moves are the more likely scenario now, though policymakers remain attuned to the data and will adjust accordingly. More

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    Dockworkers’ Strike Halts Commerce at Newark Port, Affecting the Supply Chain Ecosystem

    The strike by longshoremen has halted commerce at Newark and other ports on the East and Gulf Coasts, affecting an ecosystem of supply-chain workers.Every workday, on his early-morning drive to his job overseeing a warehouse in northern New Jersey, Sean Murphy takes in the frenetic scene of the busiest port on the East Coast.Towering cranes lift shipping containers off vessels newly arrived at Newark from points around the globe. Mile-long freight trains pull cargo to and from the docks. Belching trucks clatter down the highway, hauling containers to distribution centers from Maine to Florida.Not on Tuesday. As 45,000 dockworkers began a strike, shutting most of Newark and three dozen other shipping terminals along the Gulf and East Coasts, Mr. Murphy was confronted with the spectacle of a busy industrial hub now largely devoid of activity.Here was a visual encapsulation of the challenge confronting the global economy: cargo marooned, commerce frozen and no clarity on when normalcy will return.“It was eerie, like a ghost town,” Mr. Murphy said. “It was really creepy, if I can be honest with you. It was dead silent. I’ve never seen that in my entire life.”Beyond the atmospherics, the effective shutdown of Newark and other major ports threatens the livelihoods of millions of people who work near the affected docks — and businesses that depend on the flow of exports and imports.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Port strike could reignite inflation, with larger economic impact dependent on how long it lasts

    A strike hitting ports along the East and Gulf coasts could stoke prices for food, autos and a host of other consumer goods but is expected to cause only modest broader impacts.
    Some of the main industries facing challenges include coal, energy and agricultural products.
    There are potential buffers, though, to the damage a strike could cause.
    West Coast ports are expected to take on some of the freight business that would normally go to the eastern ports. Also, some companies had been anticipating the stoppage and stockpiled ahead of time.

    A strike hitting ports along the East and Gulf coasts could stoke prices for food, autos and a host of other consumer goods but is expected to cause only modest broader impacts — so long as it doesn’t drag on for too long.
    Manufacturers of everything from trucks to toys to artificial Christmas trees face obstacles now that the International Longshoremen’s Association has called a stoppage at major Eastern container and cargo ports.

    From a macro perspective, the impact will depend on duration. President Joe Biden, under powers granted by the Taft-Hartley Act, could step in and order an 80-day cooling off period that would at least temporarily halt the stoppage, though there’s little indication he will do so.
    That will leave hopes in the hands of negotiators for the union and the U.S. Maritime Alliance that the strike won’t drag on and cause greater hardship for a U.S. economy heading into the critical holiday shipping season.
    “Labor action by port workers along the East and Gulf coast of the United States will provide a modest hit to GDP,” said RSM’s chief economist, Joseph Brusuelas, who put the weekly impact at a bit more than 0.1 percentage point of gross domestic product and $4.3 billion in lost imports and exports.
    “Given that the American economy is on a 3% growth path at this time we do not expect the strike to derail the trajectory of the domestic economy or present a risk to an early and unnecessary end to the current economic expansion,” he added.

    Indeed, the $29 trillion U.S. economy has dodged multiple land mines and has been in growth mode for the past two years. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is tracking third-quarter growth of 2.5%, boosted by an acceleration in net exports.

    A prolonged work stoppage, though, could threaten that.

    Impacted areas

    Some of the main industries facing challenges include coal, energy and agricultural products. One rule of thumb is that for each strike day, it takes nearly a week to get ports operating at normal levels.
    “The costs of the strike would escalate over time as backlogs of exports and imports grow,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note. “Perishable products like imported fresh fruit might be first to come into short supply. If the strike extends beyond a few days, shortages of certain production inputs could eventually slow production and raise prices for manufactured goods like autos.”
    There are potential buffers, though, to the damage a strike could cause.
    For one, West Coast ports are expected to take on some of the freight business that would normally go to the eastern ports. Also, some companies had been anticipating the stoppage and stockpiled ahead of time.
    Moreover, pressure on supply chains, exacerbated sharply during the pandemic, has largely eased and is in fact below pre-Covid levels, according to a New York Fed measure.

    “We think fears around the potential economic impacts are overdone,” wrote Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics. “Frequent shocks to supply chains in recent years have left producers more attuned to the risks of running low inventories. It is therefore likely that firms will have taken precautionary measures in case of a strike – not least because the possibility has been touted by the ILA for months.”
    Saunders added that he thinks there’s a strong possibility that the White House could step in to the fray and invoke a cooling-off period, despite the administration’s strongly pro-union leanings.
    “There is little chance that the administration would risk jeopardizing its recent economic successes less than two months before a tightly-contested election,” he said.

    Inflation threat

    In the meantime, there are a slew of other issues that could complicate things.
    Snags in the supply chain could exacerbate inflation just as it appears price pressures have cooled from their mid-2022 peak that sent the annual rate to its highest level in more than 40 years. The maritime association is proposing raises approaching 50%, another factor that could reignite inflation just as wage pressures also have receded. The union is looking for larger increases plus guarantees against automation.
    “This is clearly transitory. They will have some resolution,” said Christopher Ball, economics professor at Quinnipiac University. “That being said, in the short run, if it lasts more than a few days, if it lasts more than a week … that will certainly push up the prices of a lot of those goods and services now. It could cause price spikes in the short run during the strike, and I can easily see that pushing up prices of certain goods a lot.”
    Ball expects the main areas to be impacted will be food and vehicles, both of which have exerted either disinflationary or deflationary pressures in recent months. Small businesses near the ports also could feel adverse impacts, he added.
    “If it goes a week or two, you’re running into businesses that have real shortages and, yeah, they’ll absolutely have to raise those prices just to prevent broad shortages of those goods,” Ball said.
    That all comes at an inopportune time for the Federal Reserve. The central bank last month cut its benchmark borrowing rate by half a percentage point and indicated more trimming is to come as it gains confidence that inflation is easing.
    However, the strike could complicate decision-making. The October jobs report, which is the last one the Fed will see before its Nov. 6-7 policy meeting, will be influenced both by strike-impacted layoffs as well as those from Hurricane Helene.
    It coincides with a looming presidential election on Nov. 5, and the economy as a pivotal issue.
    “This would just completely complicate everything that the Fed is trying to do because they’re not getting a read to what the economy is actually performing,” Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, told CNBC.
    Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday said he expects the central bank to lower rates by another half percentage point by the end of the year, somewhat slower than markets had been anticipating.
    Correction: The International Longshoremen’s Association has called a stoppage at major Eastern container and cargo ports. An earlier version misstated the name of the organization.

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    Biden Scrambles to Contain Economic and Political Fallout of Port Strike

    The labor dispute has forced President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris into a complicated position just weeks before the election.President Biden urged the alliance representing port employers to present a fair offer to striking longshoremen on Tuesday as the White House scrambled to contain the economic and political fallout of the work stoppage at U.S. ports.“Collective bargaining is the best way for workers to get the pay and benefits they deserve,” Mr. Biden said in a statement. “Executive compensation has grown in line with those profits, and profits have been returned to shareholders at record rates. It’s only fair that workers, who put themselves at risk during the pandemic to keep ports open, see a meaningful increase in their wages as well.”The labor dispute between the roughly 45,000 workers and the port operators has forced Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris into a complicated position. A prolonged strike could send chills across the U.S. economy, creating shortages, layoffs and even higher prices for consumers just weeks before the presidential election.The strike began after a monthslong impasse between the longshoremen and the port operators. The workers had pushed for wage increases that exceeded what the group representing the operators had offered. The union is also fighting automation at its ports.Mr. Biden has said he would not use a federal labor law to force the workers back to work, despite pressure from Republicans to contain the potential economic pain.Invoking the almost 80-year-old law, known as the Taft-Hartley Act, could alienate unions and diminish crucial support among labor groups in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan just before the presidential election.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Raises New Concerns Over Chinese Lending Practices

    A Treasury official will call for greater transparency over emergency currency “swap” loans to struggling countries by China’s central bank.The United States is raising new concerns about China’s practice of making emergency loans to debt-ridden countries, warning that a lack of transparency surrounding such financing can mask the fiscal predicaments facing fragile economies that have turned to China for help.A senior Treasury official, Brent Neiman, publicly aired concerns about the practice in a speech on Tuesday in which he urged the International Monetary Fund to push China for greater clarity about its lending terms. The Biden administration broached the issue directly with Chinese officials in Washington this year during a meeting of a recently created bilateral economic and financial working group.Chinese loans to countries already struggling to repay their debts are being made through China’s central bank using so-called swap agreements. These agreements allow countries to borrow Chinese renminbi and keep those funds in their central reserves while using the U.S. dollars that they hold to repay foreign debts.The financing is essentially a line of credit, in which a country swaps its own currency for renminbi and agrees to pay Beijing a high interest rate. The arrangement allows those countries to use their dollar reserves to finance trade or other government needs. They can also use the funds to pay debts owed to Chinese banks or to make purchases from China, creating even deeper ties to its economy.China has provided more than $200 billion in emergency financing in recent years. Chinese state media reported this year that the central bank had 31 currency swap agreements in force worth a combined $586 billion. Chinese currency loans tend to come with higher interest rates than those offered by the Federal Reserve or the I.M.F.Such currency loans do not always appear on the balance sheet of the borrowing nation, obscuring the extent of its liabilities. That lack of information can make it harder for other investors to know how deeply in debt a country is and has fueled criticism that the Chinese loans could leave the recipients worse off.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Saudi Arabia slashes growth forecasts, sees wider budget deficits

    Saudi real GDP is expected to grow 0.8% this year, in a dramatic drop from a previous estimate of 4.4%, according to the latest pre-budget report published by the Ministry of Finance on Monday.
    Saudi authorities also expect that the budget will remain in deficit for the next several years, as the kingdom prioritizes spending to achieve the targets of the Vision 2030 economic diversification program.
    Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price has increased and may continue to rise, as oil prices are expected to stay subdued.

    Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
    Xavierarnau | E+ | Getty Images

    Saudi Arabia cut its growth forecasts and raised its budget deficit estimates for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026, looking ahead to a period of higher spending and lower projected oil revenues.
    Real gross domestic product is now expected to grow 0.8% this year, a dramatic drop from a previous estimate of 4.4%, according to the latest pre-budget report published by the Ministry of Finance on Monday. The GDP growth projection for 2025 has also been cut from a previous estimate of 5.7% to 4.6%; while the outlook for 2026 has been trimmed from 5.1% to 3.5%.

    “The FY2025 budget highlights the Kingdom’s commitment to accelerate the regulatory and structural reforms, as well as the development of policies,” the pre-budget report read. “It also focuses on transformative spending to promote sustainable economic growth, improve social development, and enhance quality of life.”
    The latest report further emphasized the Saudi government’s plans to deploy sovereign and development funds “for capital investment while empowering both the private and non-profit sectors to foster growth and prosperity.”
    Saudi authorities also expect that the budget will remain in deficit for the next several years, as the kingdom prioritizes spending to achieve the targets of its Vision 2030 plan to modernize and diversify the heavily oil-dependent Saudi economy.
    The Finance Ministry projected a wider budget shortfall of about 2.9% of GDP for 2024, compared with a previous projection of 1.9% for the year. It predicted deficits of 2.3% and 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, also wider than previous estimates.

    Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price — what it needs a barrel of crude to cost in order to balance its government budget — has increased in recent months and years and may well rise higher along with spending increases.

    The IMF’s latest forecast released in April put that fiscal breakeven figure at $96.20 for 2024, marking a roughly 19% increase on the year before. The figure is also about 36% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which was trading at around $70.70 as of Tuesday afternoon.
    Oil prices are expected to remain subdued at least in the medium-term amid slowing demand and increased supply globally.
    Saudi Arabia is hosting major international events that will require steep spending — like the World Cup 2034 and Expo 2030 — as well as building out multi-trillion dollar megaprojects like Neom, which is backed by the kingdom’s mammoth sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund.

    “Saudi Arabia’s GDP dances to the rhythm of oil, and with recent data from the Ministry of Finance, it’s clear that as oil gushes, so does the economy,” Tarik Solomon, chairman emeritus at the American Chamber of Commerce in Saudi Arabia, told CNBC. “But when the wells slow, so does the growth.”
    Saudi Arabia’s public debt has grown from around 3% of its GDP in the 2010s to roughly 28% today, according to the International Monetary Fund — a huge jump, but still low by international standards. Public debt in EU countries, for instance, averages 82%. In the U.S. in 2023, that figure was 123%.
    Its relatively low debt level and high credit rating makes it easier for Saudi Arabia to take on more debt as it needs to. The kingdom has also rolled out a series of reforms to boost and de-risk foreign investment and diversify revenue streams. While the country’s economy has contracted for the last consecutive four quarters, non-oil economic activity grew 4.4% in the second quarter year-on-year, up 3.4% in the previous quarter. More