Evelyn Reynolds

A week’s worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22.
Fed officials head into their two-day policy meeting Tuesday closer to their goal of low inflation, but how much they will ease interest rates remains an open question.
“The federal funds rate has been over 5%, has been there for over a year to fight inflation. That fight is won. They need to start getting out of the way,” economist Claudia Sahm said.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell arrives to testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Hearings to examine the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress at Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on July 9, 2024.
Chris Kleponis | AFP | Getty Images

Federal Reserve officials head into their policy meeting Tuesday closer to their goal of low inflation, but how much they will ease back on interest rates remains an open question.
A week’s worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. One gauge of consumer prices showed 12-month inflation at its lowest since February 2021, while wholesale price measures indicated pipeline price increases are mostly under control.

Both readings were certainly enough to clear the way for an interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which concludes Wednesday with a rate decision and an updated forecast on where central bankers see things heading in the future.
“We got two more months of good inflation data” since the last Fed meeting, Claudia Sahm, chief economist for New Century Advisors, said in a CNBC interview Friday. “That’s what the Fed asked for.”
The question, though, turns now to how aggressively the Fed should act. Financial markets, which provide a guidepost on where the central bank is heading, were no help.
Futures markets for most of the past week had lasered in on a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, rate cut. However, that turned on Friday, with traders switching to an almost even chance of a either a 25- or a half point, or 50-basis point-reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Sahm is among those who think the Fed should go bigger.

The inflation data “on its own would have gotten us 25 next week, as it should, and will get us a whole string of cuts after that,” she said. “The federal funds rate has been over 5%, has been there for over a year to fight inflation. That fight is won. They need to start getting out of the way.”
That means, Sahm said, starting off with a 50 basis-point reduction as a way to put a floor under potential labor market decay.
“The labor market [since] last July has gotten weaker,” she said. “So there’s an aspect of just recalibrating. We got some more information. [Fed officials] need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut and then be ready to do more.”

Confidence about inflation

The inflation reports indicate that the battle to bring inflation back down to 2% isn’t exactly over, but things are at least moving in the right direction.
The all-items consumer price index nudged up just 0.2% in August, putting the full-year inflation rate at 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, core inflation stood at 3.2%, a good deal farther away from the Fed’s target.
However, most of the core strength has come from stubbornly high shelter costs, boosted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ byzantine “owners equivalent rent” measure that asks homeowners what they could get if they rented out their residence. The yardstick, which comprises about 27% of the total CPI weighting, rose 5.4% from a year ago.
Despite lingering pressures, consumer surveys indicate confidence that inflation has been subdued if not completely arrested. Respondents to a University of Michigan survey in September expected inflation to run at 2.7% over the next 12 months, the lowest reading since December 2020.
Taking all the various inflation dynamics into account, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in late August that his “confidence has grown” that inflation is trending back to 2%.
That leaves employment. Powell said in the same speech, delivered at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Fed does “not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”
The Fed has two jobs — stable prices and a healthy job market — and the primary mission looks about to change.
“If Powell wants to deliver on his, ‘we want no further weakening, no further cooling,’ they are going to have to, like, really move here, because that cooling trend is well established,” Sahm said. “Until it is interrupted, we are going to continue to see payrolls drift down and [the] unemployment rate drift up.”

The case for a quarter

To be sure, there’s considerable sentiment for the Fed to lower by just a quarter-point at next week’s meeting, reflecting that the central bank still has more work to do on inflation, and that it is not overly worried about the labor market or a broader economic cooling.
“That’s really the key that they need to kind of hone in on, which is that they are normalizing policy and not trying to provide accommodation for an economy that is really in trouble,” said Tom Simons, U.S. economist at Jefferies. “I think they’ve done a very good job of expressing that point of view so far.”
Even with the quarter-point move, which Simons forecasts, the Fed would have plenty of room to do more later.
Indeed, market pricing anticipates rates could come down by 1.25 percentage points by the end of 2024, an indication of some sense of urgency at bringing benchmark borrowing costs down from their highest levels — currently 5.25% to 5.50% — in more than 23 years.
“The whole reason why they’ve been so cautious about cutting is because they’re concerned that inflation is going to come back,” Simons said. “Now, they have more confidence based on data that suggested [inflation] isn’t coming back right now. But they do need to be very careful to monitor potentially changing dynamics.” More

With the Federal Reserve holding benchmark rates at their highest in 23 years, the government has laid out $1.049 trillion on debt service, up 30% from the same period a year ago.
The jump in debt service costs came as the U.S. budget deficit surged in August, edging closer to $2 trillion for the full year.

A view shows a bronze seal beside a door at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. 
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

The U.S. government for the first time has spent more than $1 trillion this year on interest payments for its $35.3 trillion national debt, the Treasury Department reported Thursday.
With the Federal Reserve holding benchmark rates at their highest in 23 years, the government has laid out $1.049 trillion on debt service, up 30% from the same period a year ago and part of a projected $1.158 trillion in payments for the full year.

Subtracting the interest the government earns on its investments, net interest payments have totaled $843 billion, higher than any other category except Social Security and Medicare.
The jump in debt service costs came as the U.S. budget deficit surged in August, edging closer to $2 trillion for the full year.
With one month left in the federal government’s fiscal year, the August shortfall popped by $380 billion, a dramatic reversal from the $89 billion surplus for the same month a year prior that was due largely to accounting maneuvers involving student debt forgiveness.
That took the 2024 deficit to just shy of $1.9 trillion, or a 24% increase from the same point a year ago.
The Fed is widely expected to lower rates next week, but just by a quarter percentage point. However, in anticipation of additional moves in future months, Treasury yields have tumbled in recent weeks.
The benchmark 10-year note last yielded about 3.7%, down more than three-quarters of a percentage point since early July.

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The producer price index increased 0.2% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. That matched the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 230,000 for the week ended Sept. 7, up 2,000 from the previous period and higher than the 225,000 estimate.

Wholesale prices rose in August about in line with expectations, the final inflation data point as the Federal Reserve gets set to lower interest rates.
The producer price index, a measure of final demand goods and services costs that producers receive, increased 0.2% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. That matched the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

Excluding food and energy, PPI increased 0.3%, slightly hotter than the 0.2% consensus estimate. The core increase was the same when excluding trade services.
On a 12-month basis, headline PPI rose 1.7%. Excluding food, energy and trade, the annual rate was 3.3%.
In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department said initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 230,000 for the week ended Sept. 7, up 2,000 from the previous period and higher than the 225,000 estimate.
Stock market futures were little changed after the report while Treasury yields were mostly lower.
On the PPI measure, services prices pushed much of the gain, with a 0.4% monthly increase driven by a rise in services less trade, transportation and warehousing. Another big contributor was a 4.8% jump in guestroom rental.

Goods prices were flat on the month, reversing a 0.6% gain in July.
The release comes a day after the BLS reported that consumer prices rose 0.2% on the month in line with expectations. However, that report also showed that core prices climbed 0.3%, slightly more than expected and pushed higher mostly by an increase in shelter-related expenses.
On an annual basis, headline CPI inflation decreased to 2.5% while core held at 3.2%.
Neither report is expected to keep the Fed from lowering benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point when its two-day policy meeting concludes Wednesday. The central bank’s key overnight borrowing rate is currently targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Market pricing had indicated some uncertainty over how much the central bank would cut, but recent data along with statements from policymakers have pushed Wall Street into looking in a more traditional quarter-point move, rather than a more aggressive half-point reduction.
Fed officials of late have turned their attention more to a slowing labor market.
The jobless claims report indicated that layoffs have not spiked, though the weekly number has risen slightly over the past several months.
Continuing claims, which run a week behind edged just higher to 1.85 million, an increase of just 5,000 from the previous period.

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The U.S. Latino economy grew to $3.6 trillion in 2022, up from $3.2 trillion the year prior, according to a new report by the Latino Donor Collaborative in partnership with Wells Fargo.
If Latinos were an independent country, their GDP would rank fifth in the world and be the second-fastest-growing economy, the study found.
The U.S. Latino population increased by 1.65%, while the non-Latino population grew by just 0.08%, with a large share of Latinos being younger and yet to enter the labor market.

Miami Beach, Florida, Cafe Sazon, Cuban flag with seniors at table. 
Jeff Greenberg | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

The U.S. Latino economy grew by 13% from $3.2 trillion in 2021 to $3.6 trillion in 2022, according to a new report released Thursday by economic think tank Latino Donor Collaborative and Wells Fargo.
That would make the cohort the fifth-largest economy in the world — surpassing the annual output of India, the United Kingdom, France and Canada.

“There is no doubt that the U.S. Latino economy is a formidable force, characterized by strong GDP growth, significant population expansion, high workforce participation, and increased educational achievements,” Sol Trujillo, Latino Donor Collaborative chairman, said in the report.
“This is not a matter of diversity and inclusion; it is a critical business strategy,” Trujillo added.
The report is based on data from 2022, the most recent year for which information is publicly available. It includes data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, among others.
Looking at the world’s 10 largest economies between 2017 and 2022, Latinos would be the second fastest-growing economy with a 4.6% annual average real growth rate, behind just China at 5.3%. The growth rate of the U.S. Latino gross domestic product, or GDP, is also 2.6 times faster than the rest of the U.S. economy.
Industry strength for Latinos remained steady in manufacturing, public administration, accommodation and food services, construction, and transportation.

By state, California led the way in Latino GDP in 2022 once again. Here’s a look at the top five states by Latino GDP, per the report:

California: $935.2 billion
Texas: $686.6 billion
Florida: $347.8 billion
New York: $268 billion
Illinois: $125 billion

Antonio Munoz, owner of the 911 Taco Bar restaurant, prepares carne asada and chicken, meats that have increased in price and costs for his business with recent inflation, in Las Vegas, Nevada on February 1, 2024. 
Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

Latino wealth soars

The Latino economic boom has also led to a wealth boom for the group.
Hispanic household wealth has tripled over the last decade, according to new data compiled by the Hispanic Wealth Project.
That is two years ahead of a goal set out by the nonprofit, after Latinos lost up to two-thirds of their median household wealth in the wake of the Great Recession. By 2022, the median net worth of Hispanic households reached $63,400 — 3.17 times higher than in 2013, when adjusting for inflation.
Increasing homeownership rates, rising home prices and a surge in Hispanic-owned businesses have all contributed to steady growth, the HPW reported.
However, a significant gap remains when the group is compared with non-Hispanic white households, which had a median net worth of $283,300 in 2022. Median net worth was $192,160 for the general population.
“The U.S. Latino cohort is essential to our country’s future,” said Trujillo.

Latino economy shows no sign of slowing

The LDC also set a forecast for the U.S. Latino economy through 2029. It shows the cohort’s economic output will surpass Japan’s by 2024 and Germany’s by 2027, based on national GDP forecasts from the International Monetary Fund.
A significant part of that, Trujillo said, is due to the group’s population growth rate. “U.S. Latino population growth is nearly ubiquitous across the country.”
Latino economic growth is also expanding at a faster rate than that of non-Latinos in states such as Colorado, Washington and Georgia. Between 2021 and 2022, the U.S. Latino population increased by 1.65%, while the non-Latino population grew by just 0.08%. This growth has translated to the Latino population being significantly younger than its peers, with a large share of Latinos who have yet to enter the labor market.
As a result, the U.S. economy is increasingly reliant on U.S. Latinos to replenish its working-age population, Trujillo said. “A young Latino in the U.S. turns 18 every thirty seconds.”
“Leveraging the unique and powerful opportunities presented by the U.S. Latino market will benefit every American,” Trujillo said.
The report’s findings were released during the L’Attitude conference, which examines the state of Latino leadership, participation and representation in corporate America as well as in the public, media and entertainment sectors. More