Evelyn Reynolds

While the overall jobless rate inched higher to 4.2%, the figure jumped sharply among Black women and rose to 6% in November.
Though the data reflects a labor market that is still strong and gradually cooling, signs are showing that marginalized workers are not benefiting as much, according to the Washington Center for Equitable Growth’s Kevin Rinz.
The overall labor force participation rate edged lower to 62.5%.

Job seekers talk to a recruiter at the Albany Job Fair in Latham, New York, on Oct. 2, 2024.
Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The unemployment rate climbed sharply for Black women in November.
The overall jobless rate edged up slightly last month to 4.2% from 4.1% in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. But some groups experienced more significant rises in unemployment relative to others.

Black women experienced the most significant increase, with the jobless rate surging to 6% from 4.9%. In comparison, the jobless rate for white women ticked up slightly to 3.4%, compared to 3.3% in October.

“The increase for Black women has been more pronounced than for white women,” said Kevin Rinz, senior fellow and research advisor at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
Black workers as a group also saw the highest unemployment rate last month, which jumped to 6.4% from 5.7%. For Black men, the jobless rate hit 6%, but it held steady at 3.5% for white men.

“This a broader picture of a gradually cooling labor market that is still relatively strong by recent historical standards, but less able to deliver the gains for more marginalized workers that we saw immediately after the pandemic,” Rinz added, while highlighting the volatility in month-to-month data.
The overall labor force participation rate — a measure of the population employed or seeking work — edged lower to 62.5%. For Black women, the figure slipped to 62.3% in November, compared with 62.6% in the prior month. The rate dipped to 68.7% last month, down from 69.3% among Black men.
Other demographic groups that also experienced a rise in unemployment last month include Hispanic men. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4% in November, up from 4% in October.

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Jobs rebounded in November, with nonfarm payrolls increasing more than expected.
Employment growth came from many different areas of the economy, with health care and social assistance leading the way.
The gains come after October’s employment performance across industries showed a mixed bag for the U.S. economy.

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The jobs report for November came in better than expected, and that growth came from several different areas of the U.S. economy, according to the data.
Health care and social assistance led the way yet again last month, seeing 72,300 new positions added in that area, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This comes after the group had the biggest contribution in October.

When including private education with the health-care category, as some economists do, the group’s growth would have increased even more to 79,000.

Leisure and hospitality had the second-biggest contribution last month, with 53,000 positions added. That also marks significant growth compared to its performance in October. The November gains were supported by employment in food services and drinking places, which trended up by 29,000.
Meanwhile, government, a category that had the second-biggest contribution two months ago, came in just behind leisure and hospitality last month. In November, the group grew by 33,000 jobs.
More notably, there was a stark rebound in manufacturing and professional and business services, two areas that suffered major losses in October as a result of the seven-week Boeing machinist strike and the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Last month, those categories saw gains of 22,000 jobs and 26,000 jobs, respectively.
“After a prior month of hurricanes and worker strikes, we did get a bounce back in the headline payroll numbers plus positive revisions,” Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments, said in a statement. “Jobs creation may not be as robust as in the past years, but we are not seeing a disaster in the job market.”

While there were some gains in other areas as well such as construction, Julia Pollak of ZipRecruiter noted that the gains are “very narrowly” concentrated and told CNBC that the growth in manufacturing is actually smaller than she expected to see.
Retail trade, which lost 28,000 jobs, was also a key weak spot of the report. Unless there is a turnaround in other sectors soon, Pollak believes the pace of overall job growth will “slow further.”
“Some people are calling this a bounceback, [but] I think one should not be misled by the seemingly healthy payroll gain,” the firm’s chief economist said in an interview. “We always knew going in that this report would overstate the underlying strength of the labor market [and] be inflated by the return of workers following strikes and storms.”
On the other hand, Pollak pointed to financial activities as one bright spot. That group experienced a gain of 17,000 jobs in November.
“Banks are getting … sort of bullish and excited about a Trump administration, which is seen as likely to relax financial regulations and take a more favorable approach towards mergers and acquisitions,” she added. “So, that is definitely one sector where we’re seeing more optimism and a bit more hiring in some places.”

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Nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000 for the month, compared with an upwardly revised 36,000 in October and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 214,000.
The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, as expected.
Traders accelerated their bets on an interest rate cut this month following the payrolls release.
Job gains were focused in health care (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000), and government (33,000).

Job creation in November rebounded from a near-standstill the prior month as the effects of a significant labor strike and violent storms in the Southeast receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 for the month, compared with an upwardly revised 36,000 in October and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 214,000. September’s payroll count also was revised upward, to 255,000, up 32,000 from the prior estimate. October’s number was held back by impacts from Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike.

The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, as expected. The jobless figure rose as the labor force participation rate nudged lower and the labor force itself declined. A broader measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons moved slightly higher to 7.8%.
The data likely gives the Federal Reserve a green light to lower interest rates later this month.
“The economy continues to produce a healthy amount of job and income gains, but a further increase in the unemployment rate tempers some of the shine in the labor market and gives the Fed what it needs to cut rates in December,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Job gains were focused in health care (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000), and government (33,000), sectors that have consistently led payroll growth for the past few years. Social assistance added 19,000 to the total.

At the same time, retail trade saw a decline of 28,000 heading into the holiday season. With Thanksgiving coming later than usual this year, some stores may have held off hiring.

Worker pay continued to rise, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% from a month ago and 4% on a 12-month basis. Both numbers were 0.1 percentage point above expectations.

Stock market futures edged higher after the report while Treasury yields were lower.
The report comes with questions over the state of the labor market and how that will impact Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.
Traders accelerated their bets on a rate cut following the payrolls release, with market-implied odds rising above 88% for a quarter percentage point reduction. when central bank policymakers make their next decision on Dec. 18.
“Data this morning was a Thanksgiving buffet with payrolls spot on, revisions positive, but unemployment ticking higher despite the participation rate falling,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-service investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “This print doesn’t kill the holiday spirit and the Fed remains on track to deliver a cut in December.”
Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the generally strong state of the economy affords him and his colleagues the ability to be patient when making interest rate decisions. Other officials have said they see additional interest rate cuts as being likely but subject to changes in the economic data.
While inflation is well off the boil from its 40-year high in mid-2022, recent months have shown prices drifting up. At the same time, the October jobs report and various other reports have pointed to a labor market that is still growing but slowing.
The survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, painted a different picture as the establishment survey that provides the headline payrolls count.
According to the BLS, household employment fell by 355,000 on the month even as the labor force contracted by 193,000. The labor force participation rate, which measures the share of the working-age population either at work or looking for a job, declined to 62.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point.
Full-time job holders decreased by 111,000 while part-time workers were off by 268,000.
The unemployment rate for Black workers jumped to 6.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage point.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 214,000 in November, a significant step up from the meager 12,000 gain in October.
This will be the last comprehensive look the Federal Reserve will get before its next policy meeting on Dec. 17-18.
Getting a clear picture for the Fed is essential now as policymakers look to recalibrate policy at a time when inflation rates are elevated but easing, and focus has increased on the labor market.

A pedestrian walks by a ‘hiring now’ sign in front of a U-Haul store on December 03, 2024 in San Rafael, California. 
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

After a month in which hiring was essentially muted due to storms and strikes, the jobs report due out Friday could provide a clearer picture of where the labor market is headed.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET that nonfarm payrolls increased by 214,000 in November, a significant step up from the meager 12,000 gain in October. That month’s reading was the worst for job gains since December 2020.

One of the things that will make the report so pivotal is it will be the last comprehensive look the Federal Reserve will get before its next policy meeting on Dec. 17-18. Markets are betting heavily that the Fed will approve another quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut, but that could change depending on how the jobs count plays out.
“Well, it should be a pretty healthy number, because it should bounce back from [October] when we had [Hurricane] Milton and the [Boeing strike] holding down jobs,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
In fact, the October number could get pushed higher after BLS surveyors go back and recheck the month’s data. Revisions to the payrolls reports sometimes have been massive in the post-Covid period.
That could add to a messy couple of months with economic data and make the Fed’s job more challenging.
“I would expect it to be over 200,000, and the risk would probably be to the upside if we get a real rebound,” Jones said. “But I’m not sure that this jobs report will tell us much, either, because of all the weather effects up and down. Is it really going to give us a clear view of the future, or is it just going to be more muddy data to deal with?”

Important for the Fed

Getting a clear picture for the Fed is essential now as policymakers look to recalibrate policy at a time when annual inflation rates are elevated but easing, and focus has increased on the labor market.
Aside from the October report, the jobs picture has been showing a mostly slower trend since around April, with payroll gains averaging about 128,000 new jobs a month as the unemployment rate has drifted up to 4.1%. Fed policymakers want to take their benchmark short-term borrowing rate down to a more neutral level as they balance their focus between inflation and employment.
“This is absolutely going to be noisy, because a storm and strike disruption affects two months’ worth of data, the data for the month in which people aren’t working and the next month when they return to work,” said BNY economist Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed official who served 24 years at the central bank.
“The way the Fed sees it is that the slowing in nonfarm payrolls over the course of 2024 was basically settling to trend — trend being something a little above 100,000 jobs created a month — and that was not worrisome,” he added. “It was actually welcome, because, you know, trend is sustainable.”
Indeed, the most recent signals point to a job market leveling off but not worsening.

State of the labor market

Initial weekly unemployment insurance claims have held in a fairly steady range around 220,000, though continuing claims earlier in November had hit their highest level in about three years. Together, the numbers indicate that companies are not laying off workers en masse but also aren’t rehiring those who do lose their jobs.
A Fed economic report Wednesday — its “Beige Book” summary of current conditions — described hiring as “subdued as worker turnover remained low and few firms reported increasing their headcount.” The report said layoffs are “low” but employers indicated caution about the future pace of hiring, with more enthusiasm about entry-level workers and skilled trades.
Job openings increased in October while the hiring rate fell and those leaving their jobs voluntarily increased, according to BLS data this week.
The Fed will have to weigh all of those factors, plus worries about rising inflation, when it makes its rate decision and lays out its outlook for the future.
If the labor market can remain steady, then it shouldn’t put additional pressure on inflation, Reinhart said. “So the strategy is, try to get demand at trend, because if growth and demand are at trend, then you should preserve the current state of the labor market, and the labor market is roughly in balance,” he added.
In addition to the headline payrolls gain, the unemployment rate is expected to nudge up to 4.2% as the labor force sees re-entrants from October. Also, average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% on the month and 3.9% from a year ago, both down slightly from the previous month. More