Evelyn Reynolds

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    The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator is out Friday. Here’s what to expect

    The Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday will release its personal consumption expenditures price index.
    For the July reading, the Dow Jones consensus sees little change in recent trends — 0.2% monthly increases in both headline and core prices, and respective gains of 2.5% and 2.7% annually.
    The report could influence the September rate decision even as policymakers appear to have their focus elsewhere these days.

    A customer shops at a supermarket on August 14, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia. 
    Sha Hanting | China News Service | Getty Images

    Federal Reserve officials will get the latest look at their favorite inflation indicator Friday, a data snapshot that could influence the September rate decision even as policymakers appear to have their focus elsewhere these days.
    The Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m. ET will release its personal consumption expenditures price index, a sprawling measure of what consumers are paying for a variety of goods and services as well as their spending preferences.

    While the Fed uses a whole dashboard of indicators to measure inflation, the PCE index is its go-to data point and its sole forecasting tool when members release their quarterly projections. Policymakers especially hone in on the core PCE measure, which excludes food and energy, when making interest rate decisions.
    The Fed prefers the PCE over the Labor Department’s consumer price index as the former takes into account changes in consumer behavior such as substituting purchases, and is broader.
    For the July reading, the Dow Jones consensus sees little change in recent trends — 0.2% monthly increases in both headline and core prices, and respective gains of 2.5% and 2.7% annually. At the core level, the 12-month forecast actually indicates a slight bump up from June, while the all-items measure is the same.
    Should the readings roughly match the forecast, they should do little to dissuade Fed officials from following through with a much-anticipated interest rate cut at their Sept. 17-18 policy meeting.
    “To me, it’s going to be just one more piece of evidence to confirm that the Fed is seeing sustainable inflation readings at a sustainable pace,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. Any slight upticks are “really just base-effect kinds of things that aren’t going to change the Fed’s view.”

    Fed officials aren’t declaring victory over inflation yet, though recent statements indicate a more positive outlook. The central bank targets inflation at 2% annually.

    While the respective PCE readings haven’t been below that level since February 2022, Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week said that “my confidence has grown” that inflation is heading back to target. But Powell also expressed some reservations about the slowing labor market, and it appears the Fed now is tilting away from being an inflation fighter and focusing more on supporting the jobs picture.
    “The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased,” Powell said.
    That view has been taken as an indication that policymakers will be focused more on preventing a labor market reversal and a broader slowdown in the economy. In turn, that could mean less of a focus on numbers such as Friday’s PCE reading and more on the Sept. 6 report on August nonfarm payrolls.
    “The focus on the Fed is going to be on the jobs front,” Bovino said. “They seem to be more attuned to whether the jobs side is getting a little weaker. I think that’s the focus of their monetary policy.”
    In addition to the inflation readings Friday, there will also be a look at personal income in July, which is expected to increase by 0.2%, and consumer spending, which is projected to rise 0.5%.

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    Where Does Biden’s Student Loan Debt Plan Stand? Here’s What to Know.

    The Supreme Court refused to allow a key part of President Biden’s student debt plan to move forward. Here’s what’s left of it, and who could still benefit.President Biden’s latest effort to wipe out student loan debt for millions of Americans is in jeopardy.The Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to allow a key component of the policy, known as the SAVE plan, to move forward after an emergency application by the Biden administration.Until Republican-led states sued to block the plan over the summer, SAVE had been the main way for borrowers to apply for loan forgiveness. The program allowed people to make payments based on income and family size; some borrowers ended up having their remaining debt canceled altogether.Other elements of Mr. Biden’s loan forgiveness plan remain in effect for now. And over the course of Mr. Biden’s presidency, his administration has canceled about $167 billion in loans for 4.75 million people, or roughly one in 10 federal loan holders.But Wednesday’s decision leaves millions of Americans in limbo.Here is a look at what the ruling means for borrowers and what happens next:Who was eligible for SAVE?Most people with federal undergraduate or graduate loans could apply for forgiveness under SAVE, which stands for Saving on a Valuable Education.But the amount of relief it provided varied depending on factors such as income and family size. More than eight million people enrolled in the program during the roughly 10 months that it was available, and about 400,000 of them got some amount of debt canceled.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Wall Street Learned About Last Week’s Labor Data Before the Public

    The Labor Department provided insight into a recent lapse in which revised payroll data was given out à la carte before it went online.Banks and research firms that serve hedge funds managed to confirm a closely watched economic data point last week as much as 20 minutes before the data was posted online, giving them a possible jump on financial market trading — the latest in a series of lapses at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Now, details into what happened are beginning to emerge.A technical issue prevented the data, which showed a large downward revision to job growth in 2023 and early 2024, from publishing on the agency’s website at 10 a.m. as scheduled last Wednesday, according to details provided by the Department of Labor.In response, agency technology staff began to load the data onto the site manually. At that point, starting a bit after 10:10 a.m., other bureau staff could see the update on the website — even though it wouldn’t be visible to the public until 10:32 a.m. And bureau staff began replying to people, including those at Wall Street firms, who called or emailed with questions. That enabled some to get access to key data before others.It isn’t clear how many investors got early access to the data, or whether anyone actually traded on the information. The revisions ultimately did not have a huge effect on stock markets. But the fact that Wall Street funds that make money by betting on every minor move in economic data — including reports like this one — managed to get the figures before the public has raised serious questions about what happened.Part of the problem, according to the information provided by the department, is that the payroll revision data was not considered a “news release” like the monthly jobs data and inflation numbers. That data is subject to strict to controls to avoid leaks. Instead, it was considered a “website release,” which has fewer guardrails.The bureau had no backup plan to make sure there was a way to quickly push a website update out to the broader public, such as with prepared social media posts of data highlights.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    What Across-the-Board Tariffs Could Mean for the Global Economy

    Donald J. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, has floated the idea of a 10 percent tariff on all U.S. imports, a plan that economists say could badly damage trade.Former President Donald J. Trump blames the global trading system for inflicting a long list of ills on the American economy including lost jobs, closed foreign markets and an overvalued dollar.The remedy, he insists, is simple: tariffs. Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee for president, has repeatedly said he would raise tariffs if elected. China, a geopolitical and economic rival, would face an additional 50 or 60 percent tariff on its exports to the United States. He has also floated the idea of a 10 to 20 percent surcharge on exports from the rest of the world.Although smaller than the percentage proposed for Chinese exports, an across-the-board tariff has the potential to deliver a much more devastating jolt to world trade, many economists warn.Such a surcharge would not distinguish between rivals and allies, critical necessities and nonessentials, ailing industries and superstars, or countries adhering to trade treaties and those violating them. (Democrats have also embraced tariffs as a policy tool, but Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, has criticized Mr. Trump’s universal approach as inflationary.)Here is what you need to know about the idea of a universal tariff on all imports.In 1971, President Richard M. Nixon levied a 10 percent surcharge on all taxable imports.Associated PressWhat are the historical precedents?Mr. Trump’s broad-brush tariffs frequently evoke comparisons with the destructive global trade war that the United States helped to initiate in the 1930s with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs passed by Congress. The Senate Historical Office has called that law “among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Harris and Trump Embrace Tariffs

    Both Democrats and Republicans are expressing support for tariffs to protect American industry, reversing decades of trade thinking in Washington.When Donald J. Trump ran for president in 2016, there was not much love for tariffs in Washington. Many Republicans and Democrats believed that putting levies on imports created economic inefficiencies and that freer trade was the best recipe for growth.That view has largely fallen out of fashion in 2024. While Mr. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, differ greatly in their campaign proposals, both of their parties are increasingly embracing tariffs as an essential tool in protecting American manufacturers from Chinese and other global competitors.It has been a sharp reversal from previous decades, when most politicians fought to lower tariffs rather than raise them. But the loss of American manufacturing jobs as a result of globalization and China’s focus on churning out cheap exports have created a bipartisan backlash against more open trade. Given that Mr. Trump’s 2016 win capitalized on such sentiments, Democrats have been striving to avoid losing voters opposed to free trade.“On economic policy and trade issues, you have both major parties moving in the same direction,” said Nick Iacovella, a senior vice president at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, which advocates tariffs and domestic investments in industry.Mr. Iacovella said that Mr. Trump would most likely go further on tariffs than Ms. Harris would, but that no matter who won the election “it’s still going to be a tariffs administration, and an industrial policy one.”Ms. Harris has sought to differentiate herself from Mr. Trump’s trade proposals, which include tariffs of 10 percent to 20 percent on most imports, as well as levies of more than 60 percent on China. Many economists say that level of tariffs would drive up prices for consumers, since companies would be likely to pass on higher import costs.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Kroger and Albertsons Confront a Skeptical F.T.C. in federal court

    The Federal Trade Commission, which is trying to block Kroger’s plan to acquire Albertsons, said in court that the merger of grocery giants would also hurt workers’ pay and benefits.A trial that could determine whether the two largest supermarket chains in the United States can merge opened in Portland, Ore., on Monday, pitting the grocery giant Kroger against regulators who argue that its takeover of Albertsons would eliminate competition at the expense of consumers and workers.Before Judge Adrienne Nelson of U.S. District Court, the Federal Trade Commission and the supermarket chains laid out their arguments in court for the first time, as union representatives and workers protested the deal on the courthouse steps. Less competition, the agency’s lawyers said, would give Kroger more leverage to raise prices on millions of consumers.The highly anticipated proceedings, set to last three weeks, come as high food prices have become a critical focus in the presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, has backed a federal ban on price-gouging in the food and grocery industries to combat high grocery costs.Kroger and Albertsons defended the $24.6 billion deal, which would be the biggest supermarket merger in U.S. history, saying it would bolster their leverage with suppliers and improve competition against major retailers like Costco, Amazon and Walmart. But the F.T.C. — backed by a chorus of unions, consumer advocates, politicians and independent grocery chains — reiterated its position that the merger would probably result in higher prices for groceries and worse conditions for workers.The deal “would eliminate the competition that shoppers and workers depend on in one fell swoop,” Susan Musser, the F.T.C.’s chief trial counsel, said in her opening statement. “This lawsuit is part of an effort aimed at helping Americans feed their families.”In bringing the case, the F.T.C. has been joined by the attorneys general of eight states, including California and Illinois, as well as the District of Columbia. It’s part of a regulatory push under the Biden administration to rein in corporate consolidation in an array of industries, including airlines, Big Tech, book publishing and pharmaceuticals.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Increased sausage demand could be worrying signal on the economy

    A meat counter showing a variety of sausages at a Fred Meyer grocery store, a sub of Kroger, in Palmer, Alaska.
    Michael Siluk | UCG | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

    An uptick in sausage demand can offer the latest sign of consumers tightening their belts as they continue grappling with high prices.
    There has been “modest growth” in the dinner sausage category for one producer, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey released Monday. This underscores the trends of shoppers opting for cheaper products and pulling back spending all together as cumulative inflation bites into purchasing power.

    “This category tends to grow when the economy weakens,” the respondent said, according to edited comments included in the Dallas Fed’s report. That is because “sausage is a good protein substitute for higher-priced proteins and can ‘stretch’ consumers’ food budgets.”
    This anecdote pointed out by eagle-eyed Bespoke Investment Group on social media site X comes as grocery prices remain top of mind for consumers. While the rate of annualized inflation has fallen closer to levels deemed healthy by economic policymakers, the collective increase in prices compared to just a few years ago has left everyday Americans feeling sour about the state of the national economy.
    Additionally, it bolsters two themes emerging as hallmarks of today’s post-pandemic economy.
    A growing chorus of corporate executives, including those leading some of the largest restaurant chains, have warned that the consumer is starting to slow down. In particular, they have pointed to stress on lower-income tax brackets as they attempt to make their dollars go further.
    The shift to sausage also highlights an action experts call the “trade down.” Carefree customers may select protein that is typically more expensive such as steak or chicken. On the other hand, price-conscious shoppers will hunt for sausage or other lower-cost alternatives.

    Other food manufacturers who responded to the Dallas Fed’s survey also raised concern about their economic health. One said agriculture as a whole was “hurting,” citing challenges from factors such as weather and higher costs.
    Another put it more plainly, saying it was “preparing for the recession.”

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