Evelyn Reynolds

The U.K. economy grew 0.1% in February, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That follows 0.2% growth in January, which economists said provided a strong indication the U.K. will exit recession at the start of the year.
Gross domestic product fell in the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

People shelters from the rain beneath a Union flag-themed umbrella as they walk past spring flowers in blossom, in St James’s Park in central London on April 10, 2024.
Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images

LONDON — U.K. gross domestic product rose 0.1% in February, the Office for National Statistics said Friday, providing another sign of a return to sluggish economic growth this year.
The month-on-month figure was in line with a projection in a Reuters poll. On an annual basis, GDP was 0.2% lower.

The economy contracted in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, putting the U.K. in a technical recession.
January recorded light growth, which was revised upward to 0.3% on Friday.
Construction output, which boosted growth at the start of the year, fell 1.9% in February. Instead, production output was the biggest contributor to the GDP, rising by 1.1% in February, while growth in the U.K.’s dominant services sector slowed to 0.1% from 0.3%.
The reading “all-but confirms the recession ended” last year, Paul Dales, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
“But while we expect a better economic recovery than most, we doubt it will be strong enough to prevent inflation (and interest rates) from falling much further as appears to be happening in the U.S.,” Dales added.

British inflation fell more than expected in March, to a nearly 2½-year low of 3.4%.
In the U.S., however, price rises came in higher than forecast at 3.5% this week, pushing back market bets for the start of interest rate cuts from the summer to September.
This has raised questions about whether central banks elsewhere will be influenced by a later start from the Federal Reserve than previously expected, particularly if the U.S. dollar strengthens.
Goldman Sachs on Friday revised its forecast for Bank of England rate cuts this year from five to four, projecting the trims will start in June, before slowing to a quarterly pace.
Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday that while the BOE is independent, policymakers will nevertheless be conscious of an upcoming U.K. national election, which politicians have suggested will be held in the second half of the year.
“Do you get [cuts] out of the way ahead of that general election? There is quite a lot of pressure from the governing party, not necessarily the prime minister but the chancellor has talked about expecting rate cuts.”
Overall, French said the figures strongly indicated the end of the recession but were “not a reason to hang out the bunting.”
Growth is below its pre-pandemic trend and lagging the U.S. but is on a par with much of Europe and showed signs of a pick-up in areas such as manufacturing and car production, French added. More

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Friday that “persistent” inflation, “terrible wars and violence” and the Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions threaten an otherwise positive economic backdrop.
“Looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain forces,” the head of the the largest U.S. bank by assets said in announcing first-quarter earnings results.

JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon gestures as he speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., December 6, 2023. 
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Friday that multiple challenges, primarily inflation and war, threaten an otherwise positive economic backdrop.
“Many economic indicators continue to be favorable,” the head of the the largest U.S. bank by assets said in announcing first-quarter earnings results. “However, looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain forces.”

An “unsettling” global landscape including “terrible wars and violence” is one such factor introducing uncertainty both into JPMorgan’s business and the broader economy, Dimon said.
Along with that, he noted “persistent inflationary pressures, which may likely continue.”
Finally, on a somewhat related note, he noted the Federal Reserve’s efforts to draw down the assets it is holding on its $7.5 trillion balance sheet.
“We have never truly experienced the full effect of quantitative tightening on this scale,” Dimon said.
The latter comment references the nickname given to a process the Fed is employing to reduce the level of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities it is holding.

The central bank is allowing up to $95 billion in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off each month rather than reinvesting them, resulting in a $1.5 trillion contraction in holdings since June 2022. The program is part of the Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions in hopes of alleviating inflationary pressures.
Though the Fed is expected to slow down the pace of QT in the next few months, the balance sheet will continue to contract.
Taken together, Dimon said the three issues pose substantial unknowns ahead.
“We do not know how these factors will play out, but we must prepare the Firm for a wide range of potential environments to ensure that we can consistently be there for clients,” he said.
Dimon’s comments come amid renewed worries over inflation. Though the pace of price increases has come well off the boil from its June 2022 peak, data so far in 2024 has shown inflation consistently higher than expectations and well above the Fed’s 2% annual goal.
As a result, markets have had to dramatically shift their expectations for interest rate reductions. Where markets at the beginning of the year had been looking for up to seven cuts, or 1.75 percentage points, the expectation now is for only one or two that would total at most half a percentage point.
Higher rates are generally considered positive for banks as long as they don’t lead to a recession. JPMorgan on Friday reported an 8% boost to revenue in the first quarter, attributable to stronger interest income and higher loan balances. However, the bank warned net interest income for this year could be slightly below what Wall Street is expecting and shares were off nearly 2% in premarket trading. More

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, March 7, 2024. 
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, as anticipation builds for rate cuts in June.
“If the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction,” it said in a statement.

In a press conference following the announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde said this “important” new sentence was a “loud and clear indication” of the bank’s current sentiment.
The ECB made no direct reference to loosening monetary policy in its previous communiques.
The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro currency hiked its key rate to a record 4% in September. It has left this rate unchanged at every gathering since.
Policymakers and economists have zeroed in on June as the month when rates could start to be reduced, after the ECB trimmed its medium-term inflation forecast. Price rises in the euro zone have since cooled more than expected in March.
June will also be the first month when policymakers will have a full set of data on first quarter wage negotiations — an area of concern for potential inflationary effects.

The ECB on Thursday said incoming information had “broadly confirmed” its medium-term outlook, with falling inflation led by lower food and goods.
Market pricing suggests a 25-basis-point cut in June, according to LSEG data.
“For a while now, the ECB has essentially pre-committed to a June cut. There is a high bar for this not to be delivered. But there is a wide range of possible outcomes in the subsequent months, depending on further progress with disinflation. So far, the data is moving in the doves’ favour,” said Hussain Mehdi, director of investment strategy at HSBC Asset Management, in a note.

In the U.S., expectations for a summer rate cut from the Federal Reserve were significantly curtailed by inflation data coming in higher than forecast on Wednesday.
This has raised questions over how European central banks will respond to developments in the world’s largest economy.
Asked Thursday about whether the U.S. consumer price index figures could impact the ECB’s rate cut trajectory, Lagarde said: “Obviously, anything that happens matters to us and will in due course be embedded in the projection that will be prepared and released in June. The United States is a very large market, a very sizeable economy, a major financial sector as well.”
She declined to specify whether the euro’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar would factor into policymaking.
But in comments reported by Reuters that proceeded the ECB’s decision, Sweden’s central bank Deputy Governor Per Jansson on Thursday said that if the Fed rules out rate cuts in 2024, it could present a “problem” for both the Riksbank and the ECB.
In the case of the Riksbank, this would be due to the weakening of the Swedish krona fueling inflation, Jansson said in a speech.
European data continues to move toward the 2% inflation target, keeping the ECB on track for a June cut – but the pace and extent of further cuts this year “could be more sensitive to U.S. data and Fed policy,” Andrew Benito, chief European economist at Eisler Capital, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro ahead of the rate announcement. More

The producer price index, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, increased 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.
However, on a 12-month basis, PPI rose 2.1%, the biggest gain since April 2023, indicating pipeline pressures that could keep inflation elevated.
initial filings for jobless benefits fell to 211,000, a decline of 11,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and below the 217,000 estimate.

A measure of wholesale prices increased less than expected in March, providing some potential relief from worries that inflation will hold higher for longer than many economists had expected.
The producer price index increased 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus and not as much as the 0.6% increase in February, according to a release Thursday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

However, on a 12-month basis, PPI rose 2.1%, the biggest gain since April 2023, indicating pipeline pressures that could keep inflation elevated.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI also rose 0.2%, meeting expectations. Excluding trade services from the core level, the increase was 0.2% monthly but 2.8% from a year ago.
The release comes a day after the BLS reported that consumer prices again rose more than expected in March, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve will be unable to lower interest rates anytime soon.
On the producer price side, March’s gain was pushed by services, which saw a 0.3% increase on the month. Within that category, the index for securities brokerage and other investment-related fees jumped 3.1%.
Conversely, goods prices decreased 0.1%, flipping a 1.2% increase in February. Final demand costs for energy, which has been on the rise lately, actually fell 1.6% on the month. However, wholesale prices for final demand food and goods less food and energy climbed 0.8% and 0.1% respectively.

Though prices have been rising at the pump, the final demand index for gasoline fell 3.6%. That contrasted with the consumer price index, which showed gasoline up 1.7% on the month.
Markets showed little reaction to the data, with futures tied to major stock indexes slightly higher though Treasury yields declined.
In other economic news Thursday, initial filings for jobless benefits fell to 211,000, a decline of 11,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and below the 217,000 estimate from Dow Jones.
Continuing claims, which run a week behind, increased to 1.82 million, up 28,000 for the period, according to the Labor Department release.
The economic data points are being watched closely as Federal Reserve contemplates its next moves on monetary policy.
Wednesday’s CPI release jolted markets, which had been anticipating an aggressive series of interest rate cuts this year. The report showed annual inflation running at 3.5%, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The market now is pricing in the possibility of just two cuts this year, likely not starting until September, according to CME Group data. More

Higher-than-expected inflation in March helped verify worries that inflation is proving stickier than thought.
Following the CPI report, markets switched from pricing in a June rate cut to September, and lowered the outlook this year to two reductions from three.
Markets didn’t like the CPI news and sold off aggressively Wednesday.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 09, 2024 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

As recently as January, investors had high hopes that the Federal Reserve was about to embark on a rate-cutting campaign that would reverse some of the most aggressive policy tightening in decades.
Three months of inflation data have brought those expectations back down to earth.

March’s consumer price index report Wednesday helped verify worries that inflation is proving stickier than thought, giving credence to caution from Fed policymakers and finally dashing the market’s hopes that the central bank would be approving as many as seven rate cuts this year.
“The math suggests it’s going to be hard near term to get inflation down to the Fed’s target,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “Not that you’ve put a pin in inflation getting to the Fed’s target, but it’s not happening imminently.”
There was little good news to come out of the Labor Department’s CPI report.
Both the all-items and ex-food and energy readings were higher than the market consensus on both a monthly and annual basis, putting the rate of inflation well above the Fed’s target. Headline CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.5% from a year ago, ahead of the central bank’s 2% goal.

Danger beneath the surface

But other danger signs beyond the headline numbers emerged.

Services prices, excluding energy, jumped 0.5% and were up 5.4% from a year ago. A relatively new computation the markets are following which takes core services and subtracts out housing — it has come to be known as “supercore” and is watched closely by the Fed — surged at an annualized pace of 7.2% and rose 8.2% on a three-month annualized basis.
There’s also another risk in that “base effects,” or comparisons to previous periods, will make inflation look even worse as energy prices in particular are rising after falling around the same time last year.

All of that leaves the Fed in a holding position and the markets worried about the possibility of no cuts this year.
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which computes rate-cut probabilities as indicated by futures market pricing, moved dramatically following the CPI release. Traders now see just a slim chance of a cut at the June meeting, which previously had been favored. They have also pushed out the first reduction to September, and now expect only two cuts by the end of the year. Traders even priced in a 2% probability of no cuts in 2024.
“Today’s disappointing CPI report makes the Fed’s job more difficult,” said Phillip Neuhart, director of market and economic research at First Citizens Bank Wealth. “The data does not completely remove the possibility of Fed action this year, but it certainly lessens the chances the Fed is cutting the overnight rate in the next couple months.”

CNBC news on inflation

Market reaction

Markets, of course, didn’t like the CPI news and sold off aggressively Wednesday morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by more than 1%, and Treasury yields burst higher. The 2-year Treasury note, which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, jumped to 4.93%, an increase of nearly 0.2 percentage point.
There could yet be good news ahead for inflation. Factors such as rising productivity and industrial capacity, along with slower money creation and easing wages, could take the pressure off somewhat, according to Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.
However, “inflation will remain higher than what is necessary to warrant Fed easing,” he added. “In this regard, Fed cuts will be pushed out to into the second half of the year and are likely to fall only 50 basis points [0.5 percentage point] with risks being tilted in the direction of even less easing.”
In some respects, the market has only itself to blame.
The pricing in of seven rate cuts earlier this year was completely at odds with indications from Fed officials. However, when policymakers in December raised their “dot plot” indicator to three rate cuts from two projected in September, it set off a Wall Street frenzy.
“The market was just way over its skis in that assumption. That made no sense based on the data,” Schwab’s Sonders said.
Still, she thinks if the economy stays strong — GDP is projected to grow at a 2.5% rate in the first quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed — the knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday’s data could pass.
“If the economy hangs in there, I think the market is, for the most part, OK,” Sonders said.
Correction: The markets are worried about the possibility of no cuts this year. An earlier version misstated the worries.

Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More