Evelyn Reynolds

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    Why a Second Trump Term Could Be Bad for Corporate America

    There was anxiety in the thin mountain air when the planet’s economic leaders gathered in January at Davos for the 54th meeting of the World Economic Forum. Donald Trump had just trounced Nikki Haley in the Iowa caucuses, all but securing the Republican nomination for president. Haley was reliable, a known quantity. A resurgent Trump, on the other hand, was more worrying.Listen to this article, read by Edoardo BalleriniOpen this article in the New York Times Audio app on iOS.The Davos attendees needed reassurance, and Jamie Dimon, the chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, had some to offer. In an interview with CNBC that made headlines around the world, Dimon praised Trump’s economic policies as president. “Be honest,” Dimon said, sitting against a backdrop of snow-dusted evergreens, dressed casually in a dark blazer and polo shirt. “He was kind of right about NATO, kind of right on immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Trade. Tax reform worked. He was right about some of China.” Asked which of the likely presidential candidates would be better for business, he opted not to pick a side.“I will be prepared for both,” he said. “We will deal with both.”Dimon presides over the largest and most profitable bank in the United States and has done so for nearly 20 years. Maybe more than any single individual, he stands in for the Wall Street establishment and, by extension, corporate America. With his comments at Davos, he seemed to be sending a message of good will to Trump on their behalf. But he also appeared to be trying to put his fellow globalists at ease, reassuring them that America, long a haven for investors fleeing risk in less-stable democracies, would remain a safe destination for their money in a second Trump administration.Jamie Dimon, the chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, here testifying before Congress in 2023, has attempted to reassure global business leaders the economy would remain stable during a second Trump administration.Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersBut would it? As Dimon noted, for all Trump’s extreme rhetoric in the 2016 campaign — his threats to rip up America’s international trade agreements and his attacks on “globalization” and the “financial elite” — his presidency, like most presidencies, proved to be business-friendly. Corporate America wound up with plenty of allies in the administration, from Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs executive; to Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, a Harvard Business School-educated bankruptcy guru; to Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, an aspiring Wall Street player. And the Trump administration’s economic agenda of reduced taxes and deregulation largely suited corporate America’s interests; JPMorgan saved billions of dollars a year thanks to Trump’s corporate tax cuts.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Consumers Hate ‘Price Discrimination,’ but They Sure Love a Discount

    The Wendy’s debacle is a warning shot for brands: If you want to play with prices, make sure to communicate why and whom it could help.It’s been a strange and maddening couple of years for consumers, with prices of essential goods soaring and then sinking, turning household budgets upside down.Listen to this article with reporter commentaryOpen this article in the New York Times Audio app on iOS.Perhaps that’s why, in late February, the internet revolted over Wendy’s plan to test changing its menu prices across the day. If the Breakfast Baconator winds up costing $6.99 at 7 a.m. and $7.99 three hours later, what in life can you really count on anymore?The company later issued a statement saying it would not raise prices during busy parts of the day, but rather add discounts during slower hours. Nevertheless, the episode won’t stop the continued spread of so-called dynamic pricing, which describes an approach of setting prices in response to shifting patterns of demand and supply. It might not even stop the growth of “personalized pricing,” which targets individuals based on their personal willingness to pay.And in many circumstances, customers may come around — if they feel companies are being forthright about how they’re changing prices and what information they’re using to do it.“There’s a need for some transparency, and it has to make sense to consumers,” said Craig Zawada, a pricing expert with PROS, a consultancy that helped pioneer dynamic pricing by airlines in the 1980s and now works across dozens of other industries. “In general, from a buyer standpoint, there has to be this perception of fairness.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Yellen Warns China on Exports and Russia Support

    Beijing’s economic policies threaten American workers, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen told Vice Premier He Lifeng in the southern city of Guangzhou.Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen confronted her Chinese counterpart about China’s surging exports of inexpensive electric vehicles and other green energy goods, saying that they were a threat to American jobs and urging Beijing to scale back its industrial strategy, the U.S. government has said.Ms. Yellen also warned her counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, that Chinese companies could face “significant consequences” if they provided material support for Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to a Treasury Department summary released on Saturday of two days of talks in the southern city of Guangzhou.The meetings on Friday and Saturday were an effort by the world’s two largest economies to address trade and geopolitical disputes as the countries try to steady a relationship that hit a low last year.The U.S. and China agreed to hold additional talks in the future about curbing international money laundering and fostering “balanced growth.” The latter is aimed partly at addressing concerns that China’s focus on factory production to bolster its sputtering economy has resulted in a glut of exports that is distorting global markets.The surge of heavily subsidized green technology exports from China has been a focus of Ms. Yellen’s second trip as Treasury secretary to the country. Cheap Chinese electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels are of particular concern to the Biden administration, which has been investing in those sectors at home.“I think the Chinese realize how concerned we are about the implications of their industrial strategy for the United States, for the potential to flood our markets with exports that make it difficult for American firms to compete,” Ms. Yellen told reporters after the meetings.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Mercedes-Benz Workers in Alabama Ask for Unionization Vote

    The United Automobile Workers union is mounting its most ambitious effort to gain an industry foothold beyond Detroit’s Big Three.Workers at a Mercedes-Benz factory in Alabama have petitioned federal officials to hold a vote on whether to join the United Automobile Workers, the union said on Friday, a step forward for its drive to organize workers at car factories in the South.The union is trying to build on the momentum from the contracts it won last year at Ford Motor, General Motors and Stellantis, which gave workers at the three Detroit carmakers their biggest raises in decades.The U.A.W. is also trying to organize workers at a Volkswagen factory in Tennessee and a Hyundai factory in Alabama, establishing a bigger presence in states that have drawn much of the new investment in automobile manufacturing in recent decades. A vote at the Volkswagen plant is scheduled for April 17 to 19.The drive has taken on added importance as Southern states like South Carolina and Georgia attract billions of dollars in investment in electric vehicle and battery manufacturing. The U.A.W. is trying to ensure that jobs created by electric vehicles do not pay less than jobs at traditional auto factories.A large majority of workers at the Mercedes plant, near Tuscaloosa, had earlier signed cards expressing support for a vote. On Friday they formally petitioned the National Labor Relations Board to hold an election on whether to be represented by the U.A.W., the union said.Mercedes, which makes luxury sport utility vehicles in Alabama, said in a statement that it “fully respects our team members’ choice whether to unionize” and that it would ensure that workers had “access to the information necessary to make an informed choice.”Southern states have traditionally been difficult territory for unions, in some cases because of legislation unfavorable to organized labor or because elected officials openly campaigned against unions. The lack of a strong union presence is probably one reason the region has attracted a big share of auto industry investment.Attempts in 2014 and 2019 to organize Volkswagen’s factory in Chattanooga, where the German company makes the Atlas sport utility vehicle and ID.4 electric S.U.V., failed in part because of opposition from Republican elected officials in Tennessee.Toyota, Volkswagen and other carmakers raised hourly wages after the union won pay increases for Ford, G.M. and Stellantis workers. Still, the nonunion workers tend to earn less. In many cases, pay is less of an issue than work schedules, health benefits and time off.In a video on Friday, the U.A.W. president, Shawn Fain, said workers were fighting for “work-life balance, good health care you can afford, a better life for your family.”The union has complained to the National Labor Relations Board that Mercedes has retaliated against organizers in Alabama. The carmaker denied the accusations, saying it “has not interfered with or retaliated against any team member in their right to pursue union representation.” More

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    New Questions on How a Key Agency Shared Inflation Data

    A government economist had regular contact with “super users” in finance, records show, at a time when such information keenly interests investors.The Bureau of Labor Statistics shared more information about inflation with Wall Street “super users” than previously disclosed, emails from the agency show. The revelation is likely to prompt further scrutiny of the way the government shares economic data at a time when such information keenly interests investors.An economist at the agency set off a firestorm in February when he sent an email to a group of data users explaining how a methodological tweak could have contributed to an unexpected jump in housing costs in the Consumer Price Index the previous month. The email, addressed to “Super Users,” circulated rapidly around Wall Street, where every detail of inflation data can affect the bond market.At the time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the email had been an isolated “mistake” and denied that it maintained a list of users who received special access to information.But emails obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request show that the agency — or at least the economist who sent the original email, a longtime but relatively low-ranking employee — was in regular communication with data users in the finance industry, apparently including analysts at major hedge funds. And they suggest that there was a list of super users, contrary to the agency’s denials.“Would it be possible to be on the super user email list?” one user asked in mid-February.“Yes I can add you to the list,” the employee replied minutes later.A reporter’s efforts to reach the employee, whose identity the bureau confirmed, were unsuccessful.Emily Liddel, an associate commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said that the agency did not maintain an official list of super users and that the employee appeared to have created the list on his own.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Demand for french fries reflects resilient consumer as so-called fry attachment rate holds steady

    A larger share of customers are opting for fries with their meals than they did in the past, according to Lamb Weston.
    That underscores the willingness of consumers to keep spending, even as pandemic savings dissipate and inflation bites.

    A McDonald’s crew member prepares french fries in Miami, Florida.
    Getty Images

    It’s a timeless question at fast-food counters: Do you want fries with that?
    Responders continue answering affirmatively at a higher-than-average rate, a top potato supplier indicated. It underscores the resilience of consumer spending, even as inflation pinches pocketbooks and pandemic savings dry up.

    A larger share of customers keep adding the iconic side to meal orders than in the past, according to frozen potato supplier Lamb Weston. Looking at the bigger picture, strength in the so-called fry attachment rate bolsters economic data, showing the willingness of average Americans to still shell out for everyday luxuries.
    “The fry attachment rate has stayed pretty consistent,” said CEO Thomas Werner during the company’s earnings call on Thursday. “It’s been above historical levels for the past two, three years.”
    This is just one example of how consumers keep purchasing despite mounting reasons to tighten purse strings, a phenomenon that’s puzzling economists.
    Spending on retail and food services in America topped $700 billion in February, according to advance and adjusted government figures. That’s about 1.5% higher than the same month a year ago. And it’s a whopping 38.5% higher when compared with February 2019.
    Rising wages and fiscal stimulus measures padded bank accounts during the early years of the Covid-19 crisis, prompting increased purchasing. But in more recent years, U.S. consumers have felt increasing pressure amid runaway inflation, elevated interest rates and the end of pandemic-era financial benefits.

    And experts have been surprised by the unwavering propensity of Americans to use their cash, even as consumer confidence sours and fears of an economic downturn swirl. The choice to add french fries provides one case study of what some have dubbed “YOLO” or “revenge” spending, with the first term named after the acronym for “you only live once.”

    Slowdown elsewhere

    To be sure, there are signs of financial stress on consumers that impact monetary decisions around food. WK Kellogg CEO Gary Pilnick told CNBC earlier this year that cereal was trending as a dinner alternative while shoppers grappled with higher grocery costs.
    Though customers still opt for fries, Werner said Lamb Weston’s volume took a hit nonetheless due to softer foot traffic overall in the restaurants it serves. That slide comes as consumers grow accustomed to increased prices for menu items as a result of inflation, the executive said. (Lamb Weston provides potatoes for large chains such as McDonald’s and Chick-fil-A, though Werner did not specify which companies are experiencing slowdowns.)
    “On the one hand, fries remain as popular as ever with consumers,” Werner said. “But on the other hand, consumers are going out to eat less often.”
    Lamb Weston on Thursday reported adjusted earnings and revenue for the fiscal third quarter that came in below estimates of analysts polled by FactSet. The Idaho-based company’s outlook for full-year performance on both financial measures also missed Wall Street forecasts.
    Shares tumbled more than 19% in Thursday’s session, touching lows not seen in more than a year.
    Correction: This article has been updated to remove an inaccurate reference to the timing of the Covid pandemic. This article was also updated with the correct spelling of Chick-fil-A. More

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    U.S. Employers Added 303,000 Jobs in 39th Straight Month of Growth

    The March data increased confidence among economists and investors that robust hiring and rising wages can continue to coexist while inflation eases.Another month, another burst of better-than-expected job gains.Employers added 303,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 percent in February. Expectations of a recession among experts, once widespread, are now increasingly rare.It was the 39th straight month of job growth. And employment levels are now more than three million greater than forecast by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office just before the pandemic shock.The resilient data generally increased confidence among economists and market investors that the U.S. economy has reached a healthy equilibrium in which a steady roll of commercial activity, growing employment and rising wages can coexist, despite the high interest rate levels of the last two years.From late 2021 to early 2023, inflation was outstripping wage gains, but that also now appears to have firmly shifted, even as wage increases decelerate from their roaring rates of growth in 2022. Average hourly earnings for workers rose 0.3 percent in March from the previous month and were up 4.1 percent from March 2023.Wage growth continues to slowYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    Unemployment rate among Black Americans jumped in March, contrasting overall trends

    The unemployment rate for Black workers rose to 6.4% last month from 5.6% in February, even as the overall jobless rate inched lower to 3.8%.
    This spike was particularly noticeable for Black women, who saw their unemployment rate climb to 5.6% from 4.4%.

    We’re Hiring, Part-time heroes wanted, sign at entrance to Target Store, Queens, New York.
    Lindsey Nicholson | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

    The unemployment rate among Black Americans jumped in March, according to data released Friday by the Department of Labor.
    Black unemployment rose to 6.4% last month, up from 5.6% in February. That’s higher than the overall unemployment rate, which edged lower to 3.8% last month, as well as the 3.4% jobless rate for white Americans, which held steady from February.

    When accounting for gender, the unemployment rate for Black women aged 20 or older spiked to 5.6%, a big increase from the 4.4% rate in February. Black men’s jobless rates climbed slightly higher to 6.2% from 6.1%.

    “That’s a concerning trend,” said Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
    Gould pointed out that the unemployment rate for Black Americans has been steadily increasing since December. “I would say it’s not alarming yet, but I think it’s something that we really need to watch in coming months,” she added.
    While March’s increase was primarily driven by the surge among Black women, Gould noted that in the past four months, the unemployment rates for both men and women has risen. However, she also cautioned that monthly data for demographic groups can be volatile by nature.
    Last month, the labor force participation rate – the percentage of the population that is either employed or actively seeking work – among Black Americans inched lower to 63.6%, down from 63.7% in February.  For Black women, the rate ticked lower to 63% from 63.4%, while it inched down to 69.6% from 69.8% among Black men.

    “People are looking for more opportunities, not all of them are getting them, and that’s why the unemployment rate is rising,” Gould added.
    This compares to the overall U.S. labor market participation rate, which rose to 62.7% in March from February’s 62.5%.
    Black Americans were the demographic group that suffered the most from Covid-induced business shutdowns. The unemployment rate for Black workers peaked at 16.8% in 2020, higher than the overall unemployment rate’s April 2020 high of 14.7%.
    Hispanic Americans saw their unemployment rate drop to 4.5% from 5% last month. Similarly, Asian unemployment fell to 2.5% from 3.4% in February.
    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.

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