Evelyn Reynolds

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index registered a 94.2 reading, off 3.6 points from the August reading and below the Dow Jones estimate for 96.0.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said job openings totaled 7.23 million, up 19,000 from July though down 422,000 from a year ago.

Consumer confidence edged lower in September ahead of an expected data blackout caused by the looming federal government shutdown, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
The board’s headline confidence index registered a 94.2 reading, off 3.6 points from the August reading and below the Dow Jones estimate for 96.0. The reading was the lowest since April and comes with nonessential government operations slated to close at midnight.

In addition to the weakness on the main reading, the “present situation” index hit its lowest in a year.
“Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” said Stephanie Guichard, the organization’s senior economist for global indicators.
Though the labor market has shown considerable weakness this year, employment availability in August was slightly better than the prior month.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, in what could be its last data release until the spending impasse on Capitol Hill is resolved, said job openings totaled 7.23 million, up 19,000 from July though down 422,000, or 5.5%, from the same period a year ago.
The bureau’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report, which Federal Reserve officials watch closely to gauge labor market slack, showed a slower pace in both hiring and total separations. Quits fell by 75,000 for a category looked at as a gauge of worker confidence for finding new jobs after leaving their present one.

Labor market stability is an important consideration for the Fed as officials contemplate the next move for interest rates. Markets widely expect the central bank to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by half a percentage point by the end of the year, with cuts at the October and December meetings.
“My baseline outlook doesn’t see the labor market softening much further – but there are risks,” Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Tuesday. “In particular, I see some increased risk that labor demand may fall significantly short of supply, leading to a more meaningful and unwelcome increase in the unemployment rate.”
Should the spending impasse be resolved by Friday, the BLS is expected to show payroll growth of 51,000 in September, following just 22,000 in August.
The Conference Board’s report showed a growing divide in labor market perceptions.
The share of respondents indicating that jobs were “plentiful” slipped to 26.9%, down more than 3 percentage points from August, while the “hard to get” gauge held flat at 19.1%.
Also, the survey showed more pessimism about finances, as views on their current financial situation saw its biggest one-month drop since the question was asked in July 2022. More

Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, speaks during the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) economic policy conference in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, March 30, 2023.
Ting Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins on Tuesday expressed support for the recent interest rate cut, but showed some skepticism on the extent of future moves as she sees continued threats from inflation.
Speaking in New York, the central bank policymaker noted risks to both higher inflation and a softening labor market that are keeping officials on their toes.

“In my view, a bit of easing was appropriate to address the recent shift in the balance of risks to our inflation and employment mandate,” Collins said in prepared remarks. “But I continue to see a modestly restrictive policy stance as appropriate, as monetary policymakers work to restore price stability while limiting the risks of further labor market weakening.”
The “modestly restrictive” phrasing has been used by officials to describe the current stance of policy as holding back growth — and inflation — while taking heed of easing payroll gains and a gradual increase in the unemployment rate.
A voter this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, Collins noted a “highly uncertain environment” that would see “higher and more persistent inflation, more adverse labor market developments – or both.”
“Still, with less scope for inflationary pressures from the labor market, the upside inflation risks I was concerned about a few months ago are more limited,” she added. “In this context, it may be appropriate to ease the policy rate a bit further this year – but the data will have to show that.”
At the September meeting, Collins and her fellow officials narrowly indicated the probability of two more rate reductions this year, and that has been reflected in market pricing.

Policymakers face challenges ahead with the looming government shutdown. The Labor Department has indicated it will cease data collection and releases on jobs while the impasse continues, as the pivotal nonfarm payrolls report looms Friday.
Earlier in the day, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson also noted that he supported the FOMC’s decision earlier in September to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point. Jefferson, a permanent FOMC voter, did not provide guidance on where he expects policy to go.
“Considering the outlook I described, I see the risks to employment as tilted to the downside and risks to inflation to the upside. It follows that both sides of our mandate are under pressure,” he said.
Market pricing indicates a near-certainty that the FOMC will approve another cut at its October meeting. More

For all the political firestorms they generate, government shutdowns historically have been nonevents for both markets and the economy. This time, though, could be different.
President Donald Trump’s threat to make some federal government furloughs resulting from the shutdown permanent could have longer-lasting impacts.
Should the shutdown last any significant amount of time, it also could delay the release of key economic data.

A view of the U.S. Capitol on September 29, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

For all the political firestorms they generate, government shutdowns historically have been nonevents for both markets and the economy.
This time, though, could be different.

That’s because President Donald Trump’s threat to make some federal government furloughs resulting from the shutdown permanent could have longer-lasting impacts on an employment picture that already has been looking precarious.
Should Trump follow through on the threat — and successfully weather what almost certainly would be yet another court challenge to his executive authority — it throws a wrench into what otherwise have been much more political than economic events.
“We have reason to think that a shutdown this time may not follow past precedent,” Michael McLean, public policy senior analyst at Barclays, said in a client note. If Trump follows through, “this would be a significant departure from past practice and could inject new uncertainty into the economic effect of a shutdown, which otherwise we would expect to be marginal.”
Indeed, shutdowns in the past have left little mark other than the political damage done to the party perceived as at fault.
Markets have sold off on occasion but then quickly recovered. For growth, most economists calculate the impact as about 0.1 percentage point off gross domestic product for week. Being that the longest closure lasted 35 days, from-late 2018 until the following January, that’s not a lot for a $30 trillion economy. The short-term losses are usually easily recouped in subsequent quarters, according to Bank of America.

Labor market trouble

However, in this case the labor market already has been wobbly. In particular, the Washington, D.C. region, where a large share of federal government employees call home, has taken a hit from the layoffs earlier this year advocated by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency advisory board.
Shutdowns automatically mean that employees not deemed essential are furloughed, but are always summoned back once the impasse ends. Trump threatened, in an NBC News interview Sunday, that “we are going to cut a lot of the people that … we’re able to cut on a permanent basis.”
The impact on the monthly nonfarm payrolls report wouldn’t show up until the October count is released in November, where Trump’s threat “could have a more severe near-term impact” than usual, wrote Nomura economist David Seif.
But that brings up another wrinkle: Should the shutdown last any significant amount of time, it could delay the release of key economic data.

Impact on the BLS

The Labor Department said Friday it will shut down virtually all activity. The department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, which releases multiple key economic reports including the monthly jobs count, would be shuttered as long as the shutdown lasts. In an action plan to address the situation, the department warned of delays and also said a “reduction in quality” for the data could occur.
For Social Security recipients, a delay in the release of the consumer price index inflation reading could impact cost-of-living adjustments.
The situation also could impact the Federal Reserve, which relies on BLS data when making its decisions on interest rates and other matters relating to monetary policy.
“While the US government may be headed for a shutdown, we expect little economic impact,” Mark Cabana, head of rates strategy at Bank of America, said in a note. “A shutdown would pause economic data releases, leaving the Fed reliant on private data for its policy decisions if the shutdown extends.”
One corollary would be the 2013 shutdown, when the September jobs report was delayed until Oct. 22. That month’s CPI also was postponed by two weeks.
Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, concurred with most Wall Street analyses in that the ultimate impact should be “relatively mild.” However, she noted the potential hit to the labor market.
“The most immediate and impactful effect is on furloughed federal employees and contractors,” she said. “When households are forced to go without income, even for a week, it can set back their financial stability significantly.” More

The Labor Department is preparing for what would amount to a news and data blackout should the U.S. government suspend operations.
The department has several key reports upcoming that will provide important clues about the direction of the economy and inform Fed policymakers ahead of their next meeting in October.

The US Capitol is seen in the background as signage for US Department of Labor is seen in Washington, DC on August 4, 2025.
Jim Watson | Afp | Getty Images

The Labor Department is preparing for what would amount to a news and data blackout should the U.S. government suspend operations.
In a contingency plan released Friday, the department said it was looking “to ensure that DOL agencies can perform an orderly suspension of programs and operations should a lapse occur, while continuing those limited activities authorized to continue during a lapse.”

While the department’s scope covers a multitude of areas, the impact on data releases will be pressing for investors. The DOL, in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has several key reports upcoming that will provide important clues about the direction of the economy and inform Federal Reserve policymakers ahead of their next meeting in October.
“BLS will suspend all operations,” the 73-page plan stated. “Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released.”
Among the important upcoming reports that could be impacted: On Friday, the BLS will release the monthly nonfarm payrolls report at a time when job growth has been weakening substantially. The department also releases the initial jobless claims report each Thursday.
Then, on Oct. 15, it is scheduled to release the consumer price index, a key inflation indicator and in fact the last such reading the Fed will get before it convenes Oct. 28-29.
In addition to not releasing the reports, the department noted that “all active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease,” indicating that other reports could be delayed should the shutdown drag on.

“The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical failure during a lapse,” the release said.
In all, the BLS releases about a dozen economic reports each month, also involving import and export prices, wages, and other activities related to consumers and workers. More

Addressing the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool on Monday, Finance Minister Reeves said she would champion Britain’s economic “renewal.”
Reeves was tight-lipped about the forthcoming Autumn Budget, however, at which economists expect her to announce tax hikes.
Estimates vary, but economists suggest the chancellor could now need to find as much as an extra £50 billion ($67.16 billion) to fill the gap in the U.K.’s public finances.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves speaks to media prior to her speech on day two of the Labour Party conference at ACC Liverpool on September 29, 2025 in Liverpool, England.
Ian Forsyth | Getty Images News | Getty Images

U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave little away Monday about where the axe could fall in the forthcoming budget, as she looks to fill a hole in Britain’s public finances.
Addressing the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool on Monday, Finance Minister Reeves said she would champion Britain’s economic “renewal” ahead of the Treasury’s Nov. 26 Autumn Budget, with a focus on “the abolition of long-term youth unemployment.”

Anyone hoping for clues about plans for tax hikes or spending cuts was left disappointed, however, as the finance minister instead announced plans to get thousands of young people on benefits into paid work as part of a “Youth Guarantee” scheme.
“Every young person will be guaranteed either a place in a college, for those who want to continue their studies or an apprenticeship, to help them learn a trade vital to our plans to rebuild the country, or one-to-one support to find a job,” she told conference delegates.
“But more than that our guarantee will ensure that any young person out of work for 18 months will be given a paid work placement. Real work, practical experience, and new skills,” she said in comments released by the government in advance of her speech.
While Reeves did not specifically reference the budget, she alluded to tough choices that lie ahead, telling the audience:
“In the months ahead, we will face further tests. With the choices to come made all the harder by harsh global headwinds and the long-term damage done to our economy, which is becoming ever clearer.”

‘The world has changed’

While sounding a positive note for young people, Reeves’ speech did little to dispel wider public concerns that taxes will need to rise in order to fill a growing fiscal hole.
The issue has been exacerbated by spending commitments made by Reeves in the last year, U-turns on welfare cuts and the chancellor’s determination to stick to her own self-imposed rules on balancing the books, lowering U.K. debt and only borrowing to invest.
Estimates vary, but economists suggest the chancellor could now need to find as much as an extra £50 billion ($67.16 billion) to fill the gap in the U.K.’s public finances amid substantial spending on welfare and public services, lower tax receipts and growth, and higher borrowing costs.
In her last Autumn Budget, Reeves carried out a $40 billion tax raid that largely hit British businesses and employers, raising the minimum wage and national insurance contributions they had to pay. She promised she would not hit businesses further, while the Labour Party had committed to not raising taxes on working people before coming to power in a landslide victory in July 2024.
Now, faced with her own strict rules on spending, borrowing and balancing the budget, the chancellor is highly likely to have to break promises as she seeks to to fill the fiscal hole.
Balancing the books is an unviable task for Reeves, who made headlines earlier this year after she cried in parliament. Questions over whether she might be sacked rattled markets amid accusations that she was mismanaging Europe’s second-largest economy, behind Germany.
“The Chancellor is boxed in by her own numbers and by political reality,” Nigel Green, chief executive of financial advisory firm deVere Group, said in emailed comments Monday. “Markets will demand discipline, but her party will demand action. The path of least resistance is higher taxation.”
“Investors should take seriously the risk of a broad-based tax grab,” he said, adding: “When gilt yields are this high and the deficit this wide, the Treasury will look for revenue wherever it can find it.”

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to his right, looking visibly upset, in the House of Commons on Wednesday.
Image sourced under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0

Indeed both Reeves and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer — who has backed her repeatedly — have signalled that tax rises could be on the immediate horizon.
Speaking to the BBC earlier Monday, Reeves refused to guarantee that she will not extend the freeze on income tax thresholds — the rates at which workers start paying higher taxes.
“I’m not going to be able to do that,” Reeves told the broadcaster, saying “the world has changed” amid trade tariffs and ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.
She added that Labour’s pre-election commitment to not raise VAT, a tax added to most products and services, still stands, echoing Starmer’s stated position when questioned on the matter on Sunday. More

Stock market growth that seems impervious to tariffs, politics and a moribund jobs picture is in turn powering consumer spending and putting a floor under the economy.
The University of Michigan consumer survey shows those with larger stock holdings are feeling fine, while those with smaller or no holdings are not.
“The economy’s very vulnerable if the stock market does turn south, for whatever reason,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., Sept. 17, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Stock market growth that seems impervious to tariffs, politics and a moribund jobs picture is in turn powering consumer spending and putting a floor under an economy that many expected to be teetering on the brink of recession by now.
Economic data this week painted a surprisingly bright picture of recent trends.

Consumer spending in August was stronger than expected and so was income. Companies and households continue to order big-ticket items while inflation has been relatively soft. Even housing showed signs of life, with new sales hitting a three-year high in August.
Previously, such trends had been powered by trillions in stimulus from both congressional spending and low interest rates and liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve.
But the narrative now is shifting towards the ever-popular wealth effect coming from Wall Street and a succession of new highs in major stock indexes despite lofty valuations.

“I do think that goes to the bounce in the stock market and the wealth effect,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said Friday on CNBC. “I think all of the spending is coming from the well-to-do high-income high-net-worth households that are seeing their stock portfolios are up and they’re feeling a lot better off and they’re spending.”
Indeed, the market has seen a stair-step climb higher this year, boosted by massive AI spending, no doubt, but also rallying thanks to strength in big industrial companies and communications giants. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more than 9%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is up 23%.

Stock chart icon

Dow and Nasdaq

Consumers are almost always happier when stocks are up and unemployment is low, as is currently the case. However, sentiment this year as measured by the University of Michigan has been in a steady decline, falling 23% since January when President Donald Trump took office.
A double-edged sword
The Michigan gauge fell 5.3% in September, though survey Director Joanne Hsu noted an anomaly: “Sentiment for consumers with larger stock holdings held steady in September, while for those with smaller or no holdings, sentiment decreased.”
That makes sense considering the stock market has set a succession of new records this month. Being that the top 10% of earners in the U.S. own 87% of the market, according to St. Louis Fed data, asset holders have reason to be pleased.
That’s also, according to Zandi, a reason why the economic strength could be built on sand.
“The economy’s very vulnerable if the stock market does turn south, for whatever reason,” he said. “People start seeing red on their screens and not green on their screens and the savings rate goes up not down. In the current context of no job growth, that’s recession.”
Concerns over the stock market primarily focus on valuations, with the S&P 500 currently trading at 22.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, well above both the five- (19.9) and 10-year (18.6) trends, according to FactSet.
For all that, recent economic data indicates few recession pressures.
Consumer spending in August increased 0.6%, according to Commerce Department numbers released Friday that were better than expected. Spending adjusted for inflation rose 0.4%, indicating consumers are still able to weather price increases.
On inflation, the annual rate is still well in excess of the Fed’s 2% target, with core holding at 2.9%. But monthly increases are about in line with previous trends and Wall Street forecasts, putting the Fed on target almost certainly for an October rate cut and perhaps another when it meets again in December.
“The economy has continued to surprise to the upside and despite the negativity captured in surveys and expressed by commentators, actions speak louder than words and consumers continue to spend, which is why corporate profits continue to exceed expectations,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.
More good news, more danger
There was other good economic news this week as well.
Gross domestic product grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to a revision Thursday that was half a percentage point higher than previously thought. Again, the reason for the upside surprise was because consumer spending was considerably stronger than the prior estimate. Moreover, the Atlanta Fed raised its GDP tracking estimate for the third quarter, pushing the expected growth rate up to 3.9%, or 0.6 percentage point higher than the last update a week ago.
Also, durable goods orders unexpectedly increased while new home sales surged 20%. All that came as a rise in jobless claims a couple weeks ago turned out to be a blip, with layoffs remaining low, though payroll growth has also been static at best.
Even if it’s primarily consumers at the top end driving the growth, the macroeconomic numbers are at the very least telling a story of stability.
“Often, when people feel pessimistic about the near-future economy, they begin reigning in spending, but that hasn’t been the case thus far,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at consumer site NerdWallet. “In fact, the strength of the consumer is credited with keeping the economy strong for the past handful of years, despite high inflation, high [interest] rates and great uncertainty.”
However, Renter also noted the knife’s edge that the economy sits on, with a broad swath of consumers not joining the stock market party and thus feeling down, and overall sentiment levels consistent with recessions.
“Wealth provides some insulation from perceived economic volatility, and investors have been largely doing OK,” she said. “Consumers are attuned to the current economic risks — inflation and labor market weakness. This could be due to first-hand experiences — food prices rose significantly last month — or because they’re on edge from headlines tracking key economic data. In any case, people aren’t feeling great about the economy, their place within it or where it’s all headed.” More

The core personal consumption expenditures price index showed inflation in August at 2.9% on an annual basis after rising 0.2% for the month. Both were in line with estimates.
Though the Fed targets inflation at 2%, the readings are unlikely to change course for policymakers who indicated they see two more quarter percentage point reductions before the end of the year.
Spending and income numbers were slightly higher than expected.

Core inflation was little changed in August, according to the Federal Reserve’s primary forecasting tool, likely keeping the central bank on pace for interest rate reductions ahead.
The personal consumption expenditures price index posted a 0.3% gain for the month, putting the annual headline inflation rate at 2.7%, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Excluding food and energy, the more closely followed core PCE price level was 2.9% on an annual basis after rising 0.2% for the month.
The headline annual inflation rate was a slight increase from the 2.6% in July while the core rate was the same.
All of the numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast.
Spending and income numbers were slightly higher than expected.
Personal income increased 0.4% for the month, while personal consumption expenditures accelerated at a 0.6% pace. Both were 0.1 percentage point above the respective estimates.

Though the Fed targets inflation at 2%, the readings are unlikely to change course for policymakers who last week indicated they see two more quarter percentage point reductions before the end of the year.
Stock market futures added to gains after the report while Treasury yields edged lower.
The report further indicates that President Donald Trump’s tariffs have had only a limited pass-through effect on consumer prices. Though many economists expected Trump’s expansive levies to juice prices, companies have relied on a mixture of pre-tariff inventory accumulations and cost-absorbing measures to limit the impact.
Goods prices increased 0.1% while services rose 0.3%. Food showed a gain of 0.5% while energy goods and services jumped 0.8%. Housing costs posted a 0.4% rise.
Moreover, the data showed that consumers have been resilient despite the round of tariffs, continuing to spend strongly as incomes have held up. The personal saving rate also increased on the month, rising to 4.6%, up 0.2 percentage point.
“Net, net, consumers literally hit it out of the park with very strong gains in spending not just for August, but June and July as well,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds. “Summer was the time for consumer revenge spending after hunkering down in retreat from the shops and malls during the uncertainty and fear produced by the White House tariff rollout in April and May.”
Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell say a likely scenario for the tariffs is that they are a one-time boost to prices rather than a longer-term cause of underlying inflation. However, some policymakers have continued to express reservations and see limited room for further rate cuts.
Markets are strongly betting on a rate cut in October, though there’s a bit less enthusiasm for another move in December. The Federal Open Market Committee last week approved a quarter percentage point reduction in the fed funds rate, the first easing of the year that took the benchmark down to a target range of 4%-4.25%. More

Jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the consensus estimate for 235,000.
Gross domestic product posted a gain of 3.8% in the second quarter, up half a percentage point from the prior estimate due to an upward revision to consumer spending.
Spending on long-lasting items such as airplanes, appliances and computers increased 2.9% in August, compared with the forecast for a decline of 0.4%

Initial claims for unemployment insurance were well below expectations last week, helping to douse caution at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the labor market is in danger.
First-time filings for the week ended Sept. 20 totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 235,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed, falling 2,000 to 1.926 million.
The release comes just a week after the Federal Reserve voted to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4%-4.25%.
In its post-meeting statement released Sept. 17, the Federal Open Market Committee said that part of the reasoning for the easing, the first in 2025, was that “downside risks to employment have risen.” Indeed, nonfarm payrolls growth has slowed to a crawl and the level of job openings is at a multiyear low.
However, the claims data, despite a bump earlier in the month, has shown that companies are still reluctant to part with workers even if hiring has declined considerably.
The claims data can be volatile, with Texas showing big gyrations in recent weeks. The state recorded a decline of nearly 7,000 filings last week, according to unadjusted figures.

Despite concerns rising that the economy could be slowing into the back part of the year, the economic data has remained fairly solid, and other reports Thursday confirmed underlying strength.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic growth, posted a gain of 3.8% in the second quarter, according to the last of the three estimates that the Commerce Department released Thursday. The report reflected an unusually large upward adjustment of half a percentage point, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis attributed to a revision to consumer spending. GDP declined 0.6% in Q1, a slight downshift from the prior estimate.
Personal consumption expenditures, which drive about two-thirds of the $30 trillion U.S. economy, increased 2.5%, well above the 1.6% figure in the second estimate and better than the 0.6% rate in the first quarter.
In yet another sign of strength, spending on long-lasting items such as airplanes, appliances and computers increased 2.9% in August, compared with the forecast for a decline of 0.4% and better than the July figure, which showed a drop of 2.7%.
Even excluding transportation, new orders of so-called durable goods rose 0.4% and were up 1.9% when excluding defense.
Fed officials are watching the economic data closely for clues about where they should take policy next, and recent reports have indicated a mostly upbeat picture.
Housing, which has been the weakest spot, has showed some signs of life lately, with sales of newly built homes soaring 20.5% in August, the biggest gain since January 2022.
Despite the solid data, markets still expect the Fed to cut twice more this year, at its meetings in October and December.
In a speech Tuesday, Chair Jerome Powell said the economy “is showing resilience in the midst of substantial changes in trade and immigration policies, as well as in fiscal, regulatory and geopolitical arenas.”
Still, he left room for additional easing, noting that policy is still “modestly restrictive” on growth.

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