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    Stock Markets Signal Recession Fears. Here’s the Economic Outlook.

    The economy has repeatedly defied predictions of a downturn since the pandemic recovery began. Now signs of strength contend with shakier readings.The U.S. economy has spent three years defying expectations. It emerged from the pandemic shock more quickly and more powerfully than many experts envisioned. It proved resilient in the face of both inflation and the higher interest rates the Federal Reserve used to combat it. The prospect many forecasters once considered imminent — a recession — looked increasingly like a false alarm.Until now.An unexpectedly weak jobs report on Friday — showing slower hiring in July, and a surprising jump in unemployment — triggered a sell-off in the stock market as investors worried that an economic downturn might be underway after all. By Monday, that decline had turned into a rout, with financial markets tumbling around the world.

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    The number of jobs added in July was the second smallest monthly gain in years.
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York Times

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    The unemployment rate in July rose to the highest level since October 2021.
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesSome economists said investors were overreacting to one weak but hardly disastrous report, since many indicators show the economy on fundamentally firm footing.But they said there were also reasons to worry. Historically, increases in joblessness like the one in July — the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021 — have been a reliable indicator of a recession. And even without that precedent, there has been evidence that the labor market is weakening.

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    The Sahm Rule indicator suggests a recession might have already begun.
    Data is seasonally adjusted and shows the change in the U.S. unemployment rate compared with the low point in the previous 12 months. All calculations based on three-month moving average.Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    World’s Five Leading Chipmakers Have Now Promised U.S. Investment

    The announcement of CHIPS Act funding for a plant in Indiana means the United States will have attracted investment from the world’s top chipmakers.The Biden administration said on Tuesday that it would award up to $450 million in grants to a South Korean chipmaker, SK Hynix, to help build its new chip facility in Indiana, in what officials described as a milestone in rebuilding the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry.With the announcement, the United States now has commitments from all five of the world’s leading-edge semiconductor manufacturers to construct chip plants in the United States with financial assistance from the administration, Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo said in a call with reporters on Monday. The Biden administration previously announced that it had reached agreements with Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung and Micron to help fund investments in the United States.“These are the only companies in the world capable of producing leading-edge chips at scale,” she said.SK Hynix announced in April that it had committed to investing $3.87 billion in a facility in West Lafayette, Ind. Ms. Raimondo called that investment a “huge deal” because it meant that the United States would “have the most secure and diverse supply chain in the world for the advanced semiconductors that power artificial intelligence.” SK Hynix makes advanced memory chips that are an essential component for creating A.I.Commerce Department officials said that, with the SK Hynix grant, the United States had now allocated more than $30 billion of a $39 billion pot of funding that stems from the CHIPS Act, a bipartisan law aimed at building up domestic chip manufacturing and reducing America’s dependence on Asia for vital semiconductors.Only about 10 percent of the world’s semiconductors are manufactured in the United States, down from about 37 percent in 1990. Reversing the nation’s declining share of global chip manufacturing has been a major priority for President Biden and a key component of his economic policy agenda.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    ‘The summer job is back’: Teens enter the labor force as employers dish out higher wages, perks

    Teen workers have continued building on strong wage gains first seen as businesses struggled to hire during the pandemic, new data shows.
    The average hourly wage for a newly hired worker ages 15 through 19 came in at $15.68 in June, up more than 36% from the figure seen at the start of 2019.
    Teen employment rates are also rising as companies boost pay and offer incentives.

    A lifeguard works at the beach at Coney Island on June 15, 2023 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.
    Spencer Platt | Getty Images

    Dailey Jogan was pleased to learn she would get $15 an hour and a handful of perks as the head swim coach for a metro Detroit team. Her older brother’s reaction looked more like surprise.
    At 18 years old, Jogan has spent the summer organizing meets as staff leader of the 250-person team. She also gets some freebies for facilities housed within the park where they practice, like access to the gym and a few comped tickets to the movie theater.

    That $15 per hour wage is about 25%, or $3 per hour, more than her older brother earned in the same role five years ago. And if he wanted to use the workout equipment or catch a film, he had to dig into his wallet to pay like everyone else.
    “I was very pleasantly surprised,” Dailey Jogan said. “I feel very valued.”
    That change in pay and benefits underscores the changing job outlook for the millions of American teen workers following the pandemic-induced labor crunch. While other Covid-related shocks to the economy have dissipated in recent years, young employees fetching higher wages and additional incentives appears to be a new normal.
    Data from Gusto, a payroll platform serving more than 300,000 businesses across the country, shows just how much ground teens have gained. The typical wage for a newly hired worker ages 15 through 19 came in at $15.68 per hour in June, up more than 36% from the start of 2019.

    That outpaces the rate of growth for all workers regardless of age on private payrolls, which has climbed just under 27% over the same time period, according to federal data. What’s more, Gusto stats show teens have been uniquely insulated from shifts in broader economic conditions that have at times led to lower pay for some adults.

    “I could probably overstate the benefit to teens in this labor market, but, I mean, I would have to go pretty far to do it,” said Liz Wilke, Gusto’s principal economist. “It’s a much better time to be a teen entering the labor force today than it was five or 10 years ago.”

    Employers woo workers

    Beyond pay, businesses courting teens have added additional benefits — like Jogan’s gym and theater access — to sweeten the offer.
    At fast-casual chain Chipotle Mexican Grill, workers have been eligible for a tuition reimbursement program since before the pandemic. Earlier this year, the California-based company added a well-being offering, which includes six free sessions with a licensed counselor or mental health coach. Chipotle also launched a match program, where eligible employees who make payments on student loans will get up to 4% of pay from the company in their retirement account.
    Additions to Chipotle’s benefits package in recent years have come after surveying its U.S. restaurant workers — more than one-third of whom are teens. While these offerings can push up operating costs, head of global benefits Daniel Banks said they are worthwhile to get enough new hires and open more stores. It can also boost worker retention, in turn keeping existing locations operating smoothly.

    Workers fill food orders at a Chipotle restaurant on April 01, 2024 in San Rafael, California.
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    In fact, Chipotle found employees in its education-assistance program were two times more likely to stay and more than six times as likely to move into management roles. Banks also said Chipotle’s turnover rates are near record lows.
    “Our culture and brand is so important to us. We really try to focus on internal promotions and internal hires,” he said. “Being able to provide those individuals with the right skills and tools to become an effective leader just helps the bottom line across the board.”
    Elsewhere, small businesses are trying to keep up.
    Nearly half of Erin Powell’s staffers at The Sugar Shack, a small business in Minnesota, are teens, taking on roles like making coffee or baking pizzas. Powell accommodates vacation schedules, gives free menu items during shifts and offers frequent raises. She also hosts holiday parties and tries to foster a familial workplace atmosphere.
    Despite those efforts, she’s at times seen teen employees leave for higher pay at chain rivals like Starbucks. Powell feels caught between a rock and a hard place: She’s trying to do right by her young workers, while also acknowledging the financial realities of what can be provided without scale.
    “Everybody’s competing for workers still,” Powell said. But, she tries to show employees that “sometimes big isn’t always better.”
    To keep increasing labor costs manageable, she takes on the responsibilities of what others would hire a manager for. Powell has also tried to curtail waste within the business to cut out unnecessary expenses.

    ‘The summer job is back’

    Whether it’s a raise or financial support for education, these boons appear to be luring teens to the workforce. It marks a turn for a group that saw big declines on this front in recent decades.
    At its peak this year, government data shows close to 40% of members of this age group are employed. That’s the largest share since 2009, but is still well off highs recorded in the late 1970s.
    “The summer job is back,” said Alicia Sasser Modestino, an associate professor of economics who studies youth development at Northeastern University. “I remember being completely dead wrong in summer of 2021 when I said, ‘Teenagers: just run out, grab these jobs, because this is not going to last.'”

    For reference, the federal government found more than 5 million teens were in the workforce last year. Gusto expects sports and recreation; education; and food and beverage to be popular summer job sectors for this age bracket.
    Teens have also begun appearing with higher frequency in less stereotypical sectors, like construction and nonprofit work, as the labor force remains tight, according to Gusto’s Wilke. Looking ahead, she said teens should be able to keep finding these perks and opportunities as long as the job market is relatively hot.
    A shrinking share of teen workers is making minimum wage, which was once considered common. Just about 3% of 16- to 19-year-old hourly workers earned equal to, or less than, the federal minimum wage last year, according to government data. That’s down from close to 20% in 2013. (The federal per-hour pay floor has sat at $7.25 since 2009, though several states have their own minimums that are higher than that.)
    Because teens typically start at the lowest end of a company’s pay scale, Wilke said it can be easier to institute pay bumps that equate to large percentage changes than for higher-earning, older colleagues. And businesses may be more likely to give outsized wage gains to younger workers, she said, because they often don’t require other parts of a compensation package like insurance.

    Recognizing ‘a balance’

    While today’s employed teens are theoretically flush with spending money, there’s an elephant in the room: the rising cost of higher education. Olivia Locarno said she’s stashed money from jobs at Chick-fil-A and Starbucks in a savings account for books and dorm room essentials.
    The 18-year-old New Jersey resident still treats herself to meals out with friends and new clothes every once in a while. But she said she has tried to resist discretionary spending because of the expenses from starting classes at Marist College in the fall.
    “It’s hard to just go on Amazon and not spend money on things,” she said. 

    YinYang | E+ | Getty Images

    Jogan, too, is saving up her paychecks from coaching for expenses while at Aquinas College in Michigan, where she’ll be a member of the swim team. She’s also starting to think about big-ticket purchases down the road like a car.
    For Jogan, leading the so-called Mutants team has taught her soft skills like communication and problem solving. That’s similar to what her older brother, Thomas, said he learned from the gig and uses today in his supply chain management job.
    Thomas said he would’ve liked to have been paid at the rate his sister enjoyed when he was her age. But he added that Dailey does need to stretch the extra dollars she is making to account for inflation. Thomas said there’s no sibling jealousy — he’s just happy to see her carrying on a family legacy in a meaningful job.
    “She should be in a good spot,” said Thomas, 24. “Obviously, things are more expensive now and so forth, so there’s a balance.”

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    S&P and Nasdaq Drop as Jobs Report Shakes Market

    Wall Street was jolted by rising economic uncertainty on Friday, and stocks skidded, capping off a turbulent week with a sharp decline.Friday’s drop followed a report on U.S. hiring in July that was far weaker than expected, startling investors into worrying that the Federal Reserve has been too slow to cut interest rates. Traders were already growing uneasy about the state of the economy, as well as the prospects for the big technology stocks that had underpinned a market rally for much of the year, but the jobs report intensified the focus on the risks.The S&P 500 fell 1.8 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2.4 percent. Small stocks, yields on government bonds, and oil prices, all of which are sensitive to expectations for the economy, dropped too.Employers in the U.S. added 114,000 jobs in July, on a seasonally adjusted basis, much fewer than economists had expected and a significant drop from the average of 215,000 jobs added over the previous 12 months, the Labor Department said. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest level since October 2021.“That all-important macro data we have been hammering for months is finally starting to turn in an ominous direction,” said Alex McGrath, chief investment officer at NorthEnd Private Wealth.Investors are reassessing how aggressive the Fed may have to be as it starts to cut interest rates — if weakening economic conditions justify a bigger rate cut than the central bank has indicated so far. The central bank raised rates to a two-decade high as it tried to wrestle inflation under control, but policymakers now have to decide when to cut, and by how much, in order to forestall a recession.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    JD Vance Pioneered ‘New Right’ Economics. Trump May Not Embrace It.

    The vice-presidential nominee favors economic policies that help advance a socially conservative vision of American society — and that sometimes clash with Trump’s own plans.Senator JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, is a pioneer in what friends and critics alike call a new form of Republican economic thinking. It’s a vision to steer the economy toward advancing socially conservative goals, even when those policies defy conservative orthodoxy about government intervention in private markets.Those who know him well say Mr. Vance’s economic views have evolved to match his deepening commitment to social conservative causes, along with his growing anger at the role large companies play in shaping American society and politics.Mr. Vance has built his brief political career on that new brand of economic populism.He has championed efforts to reward families for having children, with tax breaks that some Republican economists say discourage people from working. He has also pushed to disempower large businesses, particularly tech companies that Mr. Vance and his allies say have used their market power to silence conservatives and hurt workers and children, through support for aggressive antitrust enforcement and even some corporate tax increases.“He’s a social conservative first,” said Michael R. Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute in Washington who has known Mr. Vance and discussed policy with him for years, well before he decided to enter politics.“The economic policy is in service of this broader social vision, where you don’t have to go to college to earn a middle-class wage,” Mr. Strain said. “Where your kids are safe from the tech companies. And where these big businesses, run by elites, are not a threat to local companies.”Since taking office in 2023, Mr. Vance has supported raising the minimum wage for people authorized to work in the United States, cast doubt on the virtues of corporate tax cuts and privately expressed admiration for some of the economic stances of Senator Elizabeth Warren, a liberal Democrat from Massachusetts, whom he has joined to push legislation cracking down on big banks. He has also called Lina Khan, the Federal Trade Commission chair whose aggressive antitrust agenda has angered business groups and many Republicans, one of the few Biden administration officials who is doing a “pretty good job.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Jobless rates fall in July for Asian Americans, bucking the overall trend

    The unemployment rate for Asian Americans decreased to 3.7% from 4.1% in July, bucking the overall trend.
    Black women also saw their jobless rate edge down to 5.5% from 5.7%.
    Even as the overall unemployment rate rose in July, the labor market was still strong for workers ages 25 to 54, according to economist Elise Gould.

    A sign for a health-care career fair at Cape Fear Community College in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Feb. 28, 2023.
    Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The unemployment rate fell for Asian Americans from June to July, bucking a broader trend, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    The unemployment rate among Asian Americans dipped to 3.7% in July from 4.1% a month earlier. The result went against the overall unemployment rate, which rose to 4.3% last month from 4.1% in June.

    Meanwhile, the jobless rate for white Americans rose to 3.8% in July, up from 3.5% a month earlier. For Hispanic Americans, this number climbed to 5.3% last month, compared to the rate of 4.9% in June. The jobless rate held steady at 6.3% for Black workers.
    When taking gender into account, the unemployment rate declined for Black women, who saw their jobless rate tick down to 5.5% in July, compared to 5.7% a month earlier. For Black men, this number jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 6.1% in June.
    July’s jobless rates rose to 3.5% from 3.2% for white men, while increasing to 3.4% last month from 3.1% for white women. The rate similarly increased to 4.4% last month from 4.2% for Hispanic males, and it jumped to 5.4% in July from 4.5% for Hispanic female workers.
    Jobless rates for Asian workers based on gender were not readily available.

    But Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, stressed that these numbers include a lot of volatility — especially for the smaller population groups — and cautioned against reading too much into the trends.

    In fact, Gould emphasized that while the overall unemployment rate rose last month, the labor market was still strong for the prime-age employment group, or for workers ages 25 to 54. The employment rate for this age cohort was 80.9% in July, the economist said. Gould added that female workers in this group continue to recover.
    “More people came back into the labor force. Many of them did not find jobs, and that’s why the unemployment rate ticked up,” Gould told CNBC in an interview. “But when you look at the flip side, things are definitely stronger.”
    Last month, the overall labor force participation rate increased to 62.7% in July, up from 62.6% in the prior month. This measure represents the percentage of the population that is either currently employed or actively seeking employment.

    For white workers, the labor force participation rate ticked higher to 62.3% last month, compared to June’s rate of 62.2%. The rate rose to 63.2% in July, versus the previous month’s level of 62.7% for Black Americans.
    For Hispanic workers, the labor force participation rate came in at 67.3% in July, slightly lower than the prior month’s reading of 67.5%. Meanwhile, this rate among Asians was 65.7% last month, versus 65.9% in June.
    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.

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    Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%

    Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported Friday.
    Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 for the month, down from the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021.

    Average hourly earnings, a closely watched inflation barometer, increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
    Stock market futures added to losses following the report while Treasury yields plunged.
    The labor market had been a pillar of economic strength but has recently shown some trouble signs, and the July payrolls increase was well below the average of 215,000 over the past 12 months.
    “Temperatures might be hot around the country, but there’s no summer heatwave for the job market,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of the Manpower Group employment agency. “With across-the-board cooling, we have lost most of the gains we saw from the first quarter of the year.”
    From a sector standpoint, health care again led in job creation, adding 55,000 to payrolls. Other notable gainers included construction (25,000), government (17,000) and transportation and warehousing (14,000). Leisure and hospitality, another leading gainer over the past few years, added 23,000.

    The information services sector posted a loss of 20,000.
    While the survey of establishments used for the headline payrolls number was discouraging, the household survey was even more so, with growth of just 67,000, while the ranks of the unemployed swelled by 352,000. The labor force also contracted by 214,000, though the participation rate as a share of the working-age population actually edged higher to 62.7%.

    The report adds to mixed signals recently about the economy and with financial markets on edge about how the Federal Reserve will respond.
    Though markets on Wednesday cheered indications from the Fed that an interest rate cut could come as soon as September, that quickly turned to trepidation when economic data Thursday showed an unexpected jump in filings for unemployment benefits and a further weakening of the manufacturing sector.
    That triggered the worst sell-off of the year on Wall Street and renewed fears that the Fed may be waiting too long to start cutting interest rates. Easing wage gains could help policymakers feel more confident that inflation is progressing back to their 2% goal.

    The rise in the unemployment rate brings into play the so-called Sahm Rule, which states that the economy is in recession when the three-month average of the jobless level is half a percentage point higher than the 12-month low. In this case, the unemployment rate was 3.5% in July 2023 before it began its gradual ascent. The three-month unemployment rate average moved up to 4.13%.
    “The latest snapshot of the labor market is consistent with a slowdown, not necessarily a recession,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “However, early warning signs suggest further weakness.”
    Roach pointed out that the ranks of those working part-time for economic reasons jumped to 4.57 million, an increase of 346,000 to the highest level since June 2021.
    An alternate measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons surged 0.4 percentage point to 7.8%, the highest since October 2021.
    Long-term unemployment also ticked higher. Those reporting being out of work for 27 weeks or more totaled 1.54 million, the most since February 2022.
    Wall Street had been bracing for modest gains from the July payrolls report, in part over concerns about growth but also from residual impacts from Hurricane Beryl. The storm badly damaged parts of Texas including the Houston metropolitan area. 
    Despite some anxiety over the state of economic growth, Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday expressed confidence about the “solid” economy and said easing inflation data is raising confidence that the central bank can cut soon. 
    Markets have fully priced in a rate cut of at least a quarter percentage point at each of the three remaining Fed meetings this year. Odds are rising that the Fed even may go beyond traditional quarter point reductions.
    “While the labor market has remained remarkably resilient over these past two years of elevated interest rates, it’s important for the Federal Reserve to stay ahead of any further labor market slowing by proceeding with its expected September rate cut,” said Clark Bellin, chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth. More

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    July Jobs Report: What to Know

    The American job market significantly slowed in July, the Labor Department reported on Friday, adding 114,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent.The job gains were smaller than projected.Here’s what else to know:Easing wage growth: Wages rose by 0.2 percent in July compared with the previous month and 3.6 percent from a year earlier. Wage growth has been moderating for more than two years, as the intense competition to hire and retain workers has slackened. But several employers said in interviews that pressure to raise wages was still there.The Fed is watching closely: The Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady at 5.3 percent at its meeting this week, but Jerome H. Powell, the Fed’s chair, said a rate cut “could be on the table” at its next gathering in September, depending on the data. As Fed officials continue trying to bring down inflation by keeping interest rates elevated, they have also underscored that the central bank’s goal is to maintain a healthy labor market. More