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    JD Vance Pioneered ‘New Right’ Economics. Trump May Not Embrace It.

    The vice-presidential nominee favors economic policies that help advance a socially conservative vision of American society — and that sometimes clash with Trump’s own plans.Senator JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, is a pioneer in what friends and critics alike call a new form of Republican economic thinking. It’s a vision to steer the economy toward advancing socially conservative goals, even when those policies defy conservative orthodoxy about government intervention in private markets.Those who know him well say Mr. Vance’s economic views have evolved to match his deepening commitment to social conservative causes, along with his growing anger at the role large companies play in shaping American society and politics.Mr. Vance has built his brief political career on that new brand of economic populism.He has championed efforts to reward families for having children, with tax breaks that some Republican economists say discourage people from working. He has also pushed to disempower large businesses, particularly tech companies that Mr. Vance and his allies say have used their market power to silence conservatives and hurt workers and children, through support for aggressive antitrust enforcement and even some corporate tax increases.“He’s a social conservative first,” said Michael R. Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute in Washington who has known Mr. Vance and discussed policy with him for years, well before he decided to enter politics.“The economic policy is in service of this broader social vision, where you don’t have to go to college to earn a middle-class wage,” Mr. Strain said. “Where your kids are safe from the tech companies. And where these big businesses, run by elites, are not a threat to local companies.”Since taking office in 2023, Mr. Vance has supported raising the minimum wage for people authorized to work in the United States, cast doubt on the virtues of corporate tax cuts and privately expressed admiration for some of the economic stances of Senator Elizabeth Warren, a liberal Democrat from Massachusetts, whom he has joined to push legislation cracking down on big banks. He has also called Lina Khan, the Federal Trade Commission chair whose aggressive antitrust agenda has angered business groups and many Republicans, one of the few Biden administration officials who is doing a “pretty good job.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Jobless rates fall in July for Asian Americans, bucking the overall trend

    The unemployment rate for Asian Americans decreased to 3.7% from 4.1% in July, bucking the overall trend.
    Black women also saw their jobless rate edge down to 5.5% from 5.7%.
    Even as the overall unemployment rate rose in July, the labor market was still strong for workers ages 25 to 54, according to economist Elise Gould.

    A sign for a health-care career fair at Cape Fear Community College in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Feb. 28, 2023.
    Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The unemployment rate fell for Asian Americans from June to July, bucking a broader trend, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    The unemployment rate among Asian Americans dipped to 3.7% in July from 4.1% a month earlier. The result went against the overall unemployment rate, which rose to 4.3% last month from 4.1% in June.

    Meanwhile, the jobless rate for white Americans rose to 3.8% in July, up from 3.5% a month earlier. For Hispanic Americans, this number climbed to 5.3% last month, compared to the rate of 4.9% in June. The jobless rate held steady at 6.3% for Black workers.
    When taking gender into account, the unemployment rate declined for Black women, who saw their jobless rate tick down to 5.5% in July, compared to 5.7% a month earlier. For Black men, this number jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 6.1% in June.
    July’s jobless rates rose to 3.5% from 3.2% for white men, while increasing to 3.4% last month from 3.1% for white women. The rate similarly increased to 4.4% last month from 4.2% for Hispanic males, and it jumped to 5.4% in July from 4.5% for Hispanic female workers.
    Jobless rates for Asian workers based on gender were not readily available.

    But Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, stressed that these numbers include a lot of volatility — especially for the smaller population groups — and cautioned against reading too much into the trends.

    In fact, Gould emphasized that while the overall unemployment rate rose last month, the labor market was still strong for the prime-age employment group, or for workers ages 25 to 54. The employment rate for this age cohort was 80.9% in July, the economist said. Gould added that female workers in this group continue to recover.
    “More people came back into the labor force. Many of them did not find jobs, and that’s why the unemployment rate ticked up,” Gould told CNBC in an interview. “But when you look at the flip side, things are definitely stronger.”
    Last month, the overall labor force participation rate increased to 62.7% in July, up from 62.6% in the prior month. This measure represents the percentage of the population that is either currently employed or actively seeking employment.

    For white workers, the labor force participation rate ticked higher to 62.3% last month, compared to June’s rate of 62.2%. The rate rose to 63.2% in July, versus the previous month’s level of 62.7% for Black Americans.
    For Hispanic workers, the labor force participation rate came in at 67.3% in July, slightly lower than the prior month’s reading of 67.5%. Meanwhile, this rate among Asians was 65.7% last month, versus 65.9% in June.
    — CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.

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    Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%

    Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported Friday.
    Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 for the month, down from the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021.

    Average hourly earnings, a closely watched inflation barometer, increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
    Stock market futures added to losses following the report while Treasury yields plunged.
    The labor market had been a pillar of economic strength but has recently shown some trouble signs, and the July payrolls increase was well below the average of 215,000 over the past 12 months.
    “Temperatures might be hot around the country, but there’s no summer heatwave for the job market,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of the Manpower Group employment agency. “With across-the-board cooling, we have lost most of the gains we saw from the first quarter of the year.”
    From a sector standpoint, health care again led in job creation, adding 55,000 to payrolls. Other notable gainers included construction (25,000), government (17,000) and transportation and warehousing (14,000). Leisure and hospitality, another leading gainer over the past few years, added 23,000.

    The information services sector posted a loss of 20,000.
    While the survey of establishments used for the headline payrolls number was discouraging, the household survey was even more so, with growth of just 67,000, while the ranks of the unemployed swelled by 352,000. The labor force also contracted by 214,000, though the participation rate as a share of the working-age population actually edged higher to 62.7%.

    The report adds to mixed signals recently about the economy and with financial markets on edge about how the Federal Reserve will respond.
    Though markets on Wednesday cheered indications from the Fed that an interest rate cut could come as soon as September, that quickly turned to trepidation when economic data Thursday showed an unexpected jump in filings for unemployment benefits and a further weakening of the manufacturing sector.
    That triggered the worst sell-off of the year on Wall Street and renewed fears that the Fed may be waiting too long to start cutting interest rates. Easing wage gains could help policymakers feel more confident that inflation is progressing back to their 2% goal.

    The rise in the unemployment rate brings into play the so-called Sahm Rule, which states that the economy is in recession when the three-month average of the jobless level is half a percentage point higher than the 12-month low. In this case, the unemployment rate was 3.5% in July 2023 before it began its gradual ascent. The three-month unemployment rate average moved up to 4.13%.
    “The latest snapshot of the labor market is consistent with a slowdown, not necessarily a recession,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “However, early warning signs suggest further weakness.”
    Roach pointed out that the ranks of those working part-time for economic reasons jumped to 4.57 million, an increase of 346,000 to the highest level since June 2021.
    An alternate measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons surged 0.4 percentage point to 7.8%, the highest since October 2021.
    Long-term unemployment also ticked higher. Those reporting being out of work for 27 weeks or more totaled 1.54 million, the most since February 2022.
    Wall Street had been bracing for modest gains from the July payrolls report, in part over concerns about growth but also from residual impacts from Hurricane Beryl. The storm badly damaged parts of Texas including the Houston metropolitan area. 
    Despite some anxiety over the state of economic growth, Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday expressed confidence about the “solid” economy and said easing inflation data is raising confidence that the central bank can cut soon. 
    Markets have fully priced in a rate cut of at least a quarter percentage point at each of the three remaining Fed meetings this year. Odds are rising that the Fed even may go beyond traditional quarter point reductions.
    “While the labor market has remained remarkably resilient over these past two years of elevated interest rates, it’s important for the Federal Reserve to stay ahead of any further labor market slowing by proceeding with its expected September rate cut,” said Clark Bellin, chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth. More

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    July Jobs Report: What to Know

    The American job market significantly slowed in July, the Labor Department reported on Friday, adding 114,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent.The job gains were smaller than projected.Here’s what else to know:Easing wage growth: Wages rose by 0.2 percent in July compared with the previous month and 3.6 percent from a year earlier. Wage growth has been moderating for more than two years, as the intense competition to hire and retain workers has slackened. But several employers said in interviews that pressure to raise wages was still there.The Fed is watching closely: The Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady at 5.3 percent at its meeting this week, but Jerome H. Powell, the Fed’s chair, said a rate cut “could be on the table” at its next gathering in September, depending on the data. As Fed officials continue trying to bring down inflation by keeping interest rates elevated, they have also underscored that the central bank’s goal is to maintain a healthy labor market. More

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    Fed Will Scour Jobs Report for Signs of Weakness

    Federal Reserve officials held off on cutting interest rates this week because they want slightly more data to feel confident that inflation is truly coming under control. But while that approach is cautious when it comes to price increases, it could prove to be risky when it comes to the labor market.High Fed interest rates help to cool inflation by slowing demand in the economy. When it costs more to borrow to buy a house or expand a business, people make fewer big purchases and companies hire fewer workers. As economic activity pulls back, businesses struggle to raise prices as quickly, and inflation moderates.But that chain reaction can come at a serious cost to the job market. And as inflation comes down, Fed policymakers are increasingly attuned to the risk that they might overdo it, tipping the economy into a severe enough slowdown that it pushes unemployment higher and leaves Americans out of work.Those concerns were not enough to prod central bankers to cut interest rates at their meeting this week. For now, Fed officials think that the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness signal that labor market conditions are returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. But policymakers are sure to carefully watch the July jobs report set for release on Friday for any sign that labor conditions are cracking — and have been clear that they will be quick to react if they see evidence that the job market is taking a sudden and unexpected turn for the worse.“A broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the pandemic,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during a news conference this week. He later added that “I would not like to see material further cooling in the labor market.”Mr. Powell said the Fed stood prepared to react if the labor market weakened more than expected.While the central bank is already widely expected to lower rates in September, economists think that officials could move them down faster than they otherwise might if the job market is cooling notably. In fact, investors expect the central bank to cut rates by three-quarters of a point — equivalent to three normal sized rate cuts — by the end of the year.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Opportunity Zones, Lauded by Trump, Don’t Always Help Poor

    A tax incentive, with bipartisan roots, aims to foster development in poor areas. It has fueled building, but it hasn’t always aided local residents.On an Alabama day so oppressive that the sweat pools on your face in the shade, Alex Flachsbart talks almost too rapidly to understand and drives around central Birmingham with similar velocity. Every few minutes, he pulls over to expound on a victory: neglected public housing, a long-empty factory, a crumbling department store, all being transformed into shiny apartments or airy office and retail space.“This was one of Birmingham’s white-whale buildings,” Mr. Flachsbart said of a former Red Cross office that had been renovated into 192 rental residences. The development happened with the help of a powerful tax break created in 2017 to lure investors toward poorer neighborhoods, an idea championed by Democrats and Republicans and cited by former President Donald J. Trump as among his proudest economic policy achievements. (“One of the greatest programs ever for Black workers and Black entrepreneurs,” he called the incentive in an appearance this week at a National Association of Black Journalists conference.)But the relatively low-income areas covered by the incentive, known as opportunity zones, didn’t benefit equally. On Mr. Flachsbart’s tour of new projects in downtown Birmingham, the stops dry up in the historically African American northwest quadrant. There, developable lots and vacant buildings haven’t received as much of the capital flowing toward the buzzier parts of downtown.“O.Z. was a nudge there because it was already at a tipping point,” said Mr. Flachsbart, who has put together several of those deals as chief executive of a nonprofit organization called Opportunity Alabama. “There is a wall at about 17th Street.”Alex Flachsbart, chief executive of Opportunity Alabama, in the Burger-Phillips Lofts in Birmingham, a building being renovated with opportunity zone financing.Charity Rachelle for The New York TimesBirmingham and the rest of Alabama are a window into how money has and hasn’t soaked into the ground designated as opportunity zones over the past six years. Congress is taking a closer look as it considers extending the incentive, which expires in 2026 along with most of the 2017 tax law. More

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    Here’s everything you need to know about Friday’s big jobs report

    The nonfarm report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to show payroll gains of 185,000 in July, down from 206,000 in June.
    Job gains have averaged 203,000 a month for the first half of 2024 while the unemployment rate has drifted higher.
    Average hourly earnings are forecast to show a 0.3% increase on the month and 3.7% from year ago. If the latter is correct, it will represent the lowest earnings increase since May 2021.

    People line up as they wait for the JobNewsUSA.com South Florida Job Fair to open at the Amerant Bank Arena on June 26, 2024, in Sunrise, Florida. 
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    The U.S. labor market may have cooled some in July, as a gradual slowdown in the economy and Hurricane Beryl are expected to have taken some of the steam out of hiring.
    Still, even if the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report for July, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, does indicate a weaker jobs picture, the decline is expected to be only incremental and in keeping with the type of gentle downshift the Federal Reserve is looking to engineer.

    “If the Fed was going to manufacture the soft landing, this is probably what it was going to look like,” said Mike Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. “You’re seeing just modest on-the-margin weakness in the labor market that [isn’t likely to] spiral out of control into a negative feedback loop.”
    Indeed, the report from the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to show payroll gains of 185,000 on the month, down from 206,000 in June, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate. Job reports for the past year and a half have routinely beaten the consensus.
    But some economists think the report could be on the light side; Goldman Sachs expects Beryl, which ravaged large parts of Texas, particularly Houston, to pull down the jobs number by 15,000. The firm thinks the total payroll gain will be more like 165,000. Citigroup projects an even lower number — 150,000 on payrolls and a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.
    Should the unemployment rate keep climbing, it could raise fears that the so-called Sahm Rule is in danger of being triggered. The rule has observed without fail that when the unemployment rate over a three-month period averages half a percentage point higher than the 12-month low, the economy is in recession. A year ago, the jobless level as at 3.5% before it started climbing.

    Optimism at the Fed

    Job gains have averaged 203,000 a month for the first half of 2024, while the unemployment rate has drifted higher as more workers have come into the labor force and the level of those considered unemployed but looking for work or temporarily laid off has hit its highest level since October 2021.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday noted that the previous disparity between supply and demand in the labor market has come into near-balance. Open jobs now outnumber available workers just 1.2 to 1, down from 2 to 1 a few years ago as inflation roared.

    Should the factors continue to come into balance and other inflation indicators show progress, Powell strongly hinted that an interest rate cut could be coming in September.
    “Our confidence is growing, because we’re getting good data,” he said at a news conference following the Fed’s policy meeting. “Frankly, the softening in the labor market conditions gives you more confidence that the economy’s not overheating.”
    Markets will be watching Friday’s numbers for confirmation that Powell’s view on the labor market is accurate — and that the Fed isn’t overconfident and waiting too long to start lowering rates.
    There has been a growing chorus on Wall Street for the Fed to start easing now that most indicators show that the inflation rate is only a short distance from the central bank’s 2% goal. DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, for instance, told CNBC on Wednesday that he thinks the economy already is teetering on recession.
    “When we look back at today, …. I kind of believe that we will say that we were in recession in September 2024,” he said.

    Eyes on earnings

    The Fed at its meeting voted to hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range of 5.25%-5.5%, where it has been for the past year.
    Markets rallied on the news but gave back those gains Thursday following news that unemployment claims rose last week and the manufacturing sector slumped further into contraction.
    “By holding off on cutting interest rates today, the Federal Open Market Committee is betting the labor market is strong enough to wait until the fall for confirmation that inflation is returning to 2%,” said Nick Bunker, Indeed Hiring Lab’s economic research director for North America. “Let’s hope it pays off.”
    As always, markets also will have eyes on the average hourly earnings portion of the report for signs of underlying inflation.

    The forecast is that earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.7% from year ago. If the latter is correct, it will represent the lowest earnings increase since May 2021.
    “Even if wage pressures were to unexpectedly remain ‘stuck’ or slightly re-accelerate in this report, we think that the progress the Fed has made on inflation thus far means that there should still be an opportunity for the Fed to cut rates in September so long as subsequent data releases (eg July CPI) cooperates,” said BeiChen Lin, investment strategist at Russell Investments.

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    Productivity Surges 2.3%, Beating Forecasts

    The NewsProductivity grew at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday, surpassing economists’ expectations. The pickup was a major improvement upon the sluggish 0.4 percent rate in the first quarter. And on a yearly basis, productivity increased 2.7 percent. That far exceeds prepandemic averages.An assembly line at a car plant in Michigan in April.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesWhy It Matters: A key to prosperity.A highly productive economy generally means businesses and workers are operating efficiently, making more money in fewer hours. In the second quarter, production was up 3.3 percent, while hours worked rose 1 percent.On a less technical level, productivity is best explained by the old axiom of “doing more with less” or the folksy virtue of “getting the biggest bang for your buck.”Economists tend to sigh with relief when they see productivity gains because it offers a potential “win-win” for workers, customers and business owners: If businesses can make more money in fewer work hours, then — according to basic economic logic — they can presumably make more dollars per hour, while also reinvesting and giving workers raises, without sacrificing profits.Being able to make more with less (or with the same amount of labor and machinery) also means businesses may not feel as much pressure to set higher prices to push profits. That, too, is welcome news after a yearslong bout of inflation.Facts to Keep in Mind: A volatile indicator.Productivity, at a basic level, is calculated as a simple ratio: the total amount of output an economy produces per hour worked by its labor force. But the output side of the equation is adjusted for inflation on a quarterly basis. That can cause volatility, in both directions.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More