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    On Economic Policy, Harris Has Played Limited Role

    President Biden has not given his vice president an expansive economic portfolio. But she has engaged on issues of small-business lending, help for parents and more.Shortly after the Biden administration took office in 2021, Vice President Kamala Harris started calling the chief executives of large banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.The federal government was making hundreds of billions of dollars available for banks to lend to small businesses to keep them afloat during the pandemic recession. Ms. Harris told the executives they needed to be lending more, faster, particularly to minority-owned businesses that data suggested were struggling to gain access to the money.The calls represented one of the earliest and most visible forays Ms. Harris made in devising and carrying out the Biden administration’s economic agenda, and illustrated the sort of economic policy niche that she has filled as vice president.Current and former administration officials, progressive leaders outside the White House and allies of Ms. Harris roundly agree that the vice president, who is now the leading candidate to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, did not play a major role in the creation of the sweeping economic legislation that has defined President Biden’s time in office.Ms. Harris was rarely a loud voice in major economic debates, like the ones over how to counter soaring inflation in 2021 and 2022. She did sometimes attend economic briefings, but was not always a big contributor in them. One attendee recalled her coming to an economic briefing, but simply listening to the presentation while Mr. Biden asked questions.Other officials say Ms. Harris largely focuses her questions for economists on how certain policies affect workers and families at a personal level — a trait she shares with the president.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Why an indicator that has foretold almost every recession doesn’t seem to be working anymore

    Wall Street’s favorite recession signal started flashing red in 2022 and hasn’t stopped — and thus far has been wrong every step of the way.
    Depending on which duration point you think is most relevant, the yield curve has been inverted either since July 2022 or October of the same year. An inverted curve has signaled nearly every U.S. recession.
    “I just don’t see how a curve can be this wrong for this long. I’m leaning toward it being broken, but I haven’t fully capitulated yet,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist SMBC Nikko Securities.
    The Commerce Department on Thursday is expected to report that GDP accelerated 2.1% in the second quarter of 2024.

    Pedestrians walk along Wall Street near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Thursday, May 16, 2024. 
    Alex Kent | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Wall Street’s favorite recession signal started flashing red in 2022 and hasn’t stopped — and thus far has been wrong every step of the way.
    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has been lower than most of its shorter-dated counterparts since that time — a phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve which has preceded nearly every recession going back to the 1950s.

    However, while conventional thinking holds that a downturn is supposed to occur within a year, or at most two years, of an inverted curve, not only did one not occur but there’s also nary a red number in sight for U.S. economic growth.
    The situation has many on Wall Street scratching their heads about why the inverted curve — both a signal and, in some respects, a cause of recessions — has been so wrong this time, and whether it’s a continuing sign of economic danger.
    “So far, yeah, it’s been a bald-faced liar,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said half-jokingly. “It’s the first time it’s inverted and a recession didn’t follow. But having said that, I don’t think we can feel very comfortable with the continued inversion. It’s been wrong so far, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be wrong forever.”
    Depending on which duration point you think is most relevant, the curve has been inverted either since July 2022, as gauged against the 2-year yield, or October of the same year, as measured against the 3-month note. Some even prefer to use the federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for overnight lending. That would take the inversion to November 2022.

    Whichever point you pick, a recession should have arrived by now. The inversion had been wrong only once, in the mid-1960s, and has foretold every retrenchment since.

    According to the New York Federal Reserve, which uses the 10-year/3-month curve, a recession should happen about 12 months later. In fact, the central bank still assigns about a 56% probability of a recession by June 2025 as indicated by the current gap.
    “It’s been such a long time, you have to start to wonder about its usefulness,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist SMBC Nikko Securities. “I just don’t see how a curve can be this wrong for this long. I’m leaning toward it being broken, but I haven’t fully capitulated yet.”

    The inversion is not alone

    Making the situation even more complicated is that the yield curve isn’t the only indicator showing reason for caution about how long the post-Covid recovery can last.
    Gross domestic product, a tally of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, has averaged about 2.7% annualized real quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2022, a fairly robust pace well above what is considered trend gains of around 2%.
    Prior to that, GDP was negative for two straight quarters, meeting a technical definition though few expect the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare an official recession.
    The Commerce Department on Thursday is expected to report that GDP accelerated 2.1% in the second quarter of 2024.

    However, economists have been watching several negative trends.
    The so-called Sahm Rule, a fail-safe gauge that posits that recessions happen when the unemployment rate averaged across three months is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, is close to being triggered. On top of that, money supply has been on a steady downward trajectory since peaking in April 2022, and the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has long been negative, suggesting substantial headwinds to growth.
    “So many of these measures are being questioned,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “At some point, we’re going to be in recession.”
    Yet no recession has appeared on the horizon.

    What’s different this time

    “We’ve got a number of different indicators that just haven’t panned out,” said Jim Paulsen, a veteran economist and strategist who has worked at Wells Fargo among other firms. “We’ve had a number of things that were recession-like.”
    Paulsen, who now writes a Substack blog called Paulsen Perspectives, points out some anomalous occurrences over the past few years that could account for the disparities.
    For one, he and others note that the economy actually experienced that technical recession prior to the inversion. For another, he cites the unusual behavior by the Federal Reserve during the current cycle.
    Faced with runaway inflation at its highest rate in more than 40 years, the Fed started raising rates gradually in March 2022, then much more aggressively by the middle part of that year — after the inflation peak of June 2022. That’s counter to the way central banks have operated in the past. Historically, the Fed has raised rates early in the inflation cycle then started cutting later.
    “They waited until inflation peaked, and then they tightened all the way down. So the Fed’s been completely out of synch,” Paulsen said.
    But the rate dynamics have helped companies escape what usually happens in an inverted curve.
    One reason why inverted curves can contribute to a recession as well as signal that one is occurring is that they make shorter-term money more expensive. That’s hard on banks, for instance, that borrow short and lend long. With an inverted curve hitting their net interest margins, banks may opt to lend less, causing a pullback in consumer spending that can lead to recession.
    But companies this time around were able to lock in at low long-term rates before the central bank starting hiking, providing a buffer against the higher short-term rates.
    However, the trend raises the stakes for the Fed, as much of that financing is about to come due.
    Companies needing to roll over their debt could face a much harder time if the prevailing high rates stay in effect. This could provide something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for the yield curve. The Fed has been on hold for a year, with its benchmark rate at a 23-year high.
    “So it could very well be the case that the curve’s been lying to us up until now. But it could decide to start telling the truth here pretty soon,” said Zandi, the Moody’s economist. “It makes me really uncomfortable that the curve is inverted. This is one more reason why the Fed should be lowering interest rates. They’re taking a chance here.”

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    Small Banks Say Their Commercial Real Estate Loans Are Fine

    Community banks are big commercial real-estate lenders. But they say their loans are to sturdy local businesses, not those facing vacant office space.Small banks are feeling misunderstood.They see themselves as integral to neighborhoods across the country: backers of local dry cleaners, dentists and sandwich shops. Investors worry that those banks could be a crisis waiting to happen.The pride and the anxiety both reflect the fact that community banks are big lenders in the commercial real-estate market, which has been rocked by falling property values as large office buildings sit empty.But executives at these firms — which number about 4,100 in total — say there is an important distinction, and some industry analysts concur. They caution that small banks are being lumped in with lenders to the owners of half-empty towers in Manhattan, San Francisco and Chicago, which are in the most trouble.Instead, a majority of commercial building loans by community banks are for smaller buildings — like those housing doctors and local businesses — that tend to be fully leased. And while there are concerns about financial pressure on apartment building landlords if interest rates remain high, missed payments on those types of mortgages have not risen substantially.“The focus has been on office as that is the weak category,” said John Buran, the chief executive officer of Flushing Financial, based in Uniondale, N.Y., which operates branches as Flushing Bank in Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn and on Long Island. “Most community banks don’t have the type of exposure.”All of Flushing Financial’s loans are performing well, said John Buran, the firm’s chief executive.Graham Dickie/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Judge Refuses to Block F.T.C.’s Noncompete Ban as Lawsuits Play Out

    A federal judge in Pennsylvania denied a request to delay the rule, siding with the agency and diverging from another court’s decision earlier this month.A federal judge in Pennsylvania on Tuesday declined to block the Federal Trade Commission’s ban on noncompete agreements, diverging from another judge’s recent finding that the agency’s move was on shaky legal ground.The decision clears one obstacle to the F.T.C.’s move to prohibit virtually all noncompete agreements, which prohibit employees from switching jobs within an industry and affect roughly one in five American workers. The rule is set to take effect on Sept. 4.Several business groups sued to block the ban as soon as the F.T.C. voted to adopt it in April, saying it would limit their ability to protect trade secrets and confidential information. ATS Tree Services, a tree-removal company, filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, arguing that it used noncompetes to “provide its employees with necessary and valuable specialized training while minimizing the risk that employees will leave and immediately use that specialized training and ATS’s confidential information to benefit a competitor.”But on Tuesday, Judge Kelley Brisbon Hodge ruled that ATS had not proved that it would suffer irreparable harm from the rule. Denying the company’s motion for a preliminary injunction, she said the lawsuit was unlikely to ultimately prevail on the merits.Judge Hodge’s decision “fully vindicates” the F.T.C.’s authority to ban noncompete clauses, “which harm competition by inhibiting workers’ freedom and mobility while stunting economic growth,” Douglas Farrar, a commission spokesman, said in a statement.A lawyer representing ATS, Josh Robbins of the Pacific Legal Foundation, a libertarian law group, said the firm was disappointed by the court’s decision and would “continue to fight the F.T.C.’s power grab.” Mr. Robbins declined to say whether the firm intended to appeal.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Can Kamala Harris Sell Bidenomics?

    Much of President Biden’s agenda polls well, but voters roundly dislike his handling of the economy. That’s a campaign challenge for his vice president, as she mounts a presidential bid.President Biden has signed more major economic legislation than any other president has this century. He presided over record job growth and a recovery from pandemic recession that was the envy of the wealthy world. He crafted an ambitious, multinational industrial policy meant to help America and its allies rebuild strategic manufacturing capacity to counter China.But voters gave Mr. Biden little credit, focusing instead on the inflation surge that plagued much of Mr. Biden’s term.That shortcoming was jeopardizing Mr. Biden’s re-election chances well before he fumbled through a televised debate last month and re-inflamed questions about his age. Polls showed that the economy and prices topped voters’ issue concerns, and that they roundly preferred former President Donald J. Trump to Mr. Biden on the issue.As Mr. Biden steps away from the 2024 campaign and Vice President Kamala Harris tries to rally support for the presidential nomination, economic questions loom large over her candidacy.Will Ms. Harris, 59 and unburdened by the age questions that dogged Mr. Biden, fare any better at selling the Biden-Harris economic record — including its investments in low-emission energy, advanced manufacturing and other industries? Can she maintain Mr. Biden’s connection to certain blue-collar voters in pivotal states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, while re-engaging economically disaffected young voters who had grown disillusioned with the president?And can she overcome voter anger over inflation, which peaked at 9 percent in 2022 but has since fallen closer to the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2 percent?We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    California Forever Future City in Solano County Put on Hold

    The East Solano Plan, a proposal for a walkable urban community in a rural corner of the San Francisco Bay Area, stoked tension, fear and mistrust among some neighbors.Silicon Valley’s plans for a start-up city are on hold.The East Solano Plan — a proposal backed by a roster of technology billionaires to build a city of up to 400,000 people on farmland about 60 miles from San Francisco — is being delayed at least two years to study the project’s impact on the environment, the company behind the development said in a statement.The proposed city was meant to be a walkable urban community in a rural corner of the San Francisco Bay Area, which is now home to sheep farms and windmills. Jan Sramek, a former Goldman Sachs trader who came up with the plan and is now the chief executive of the company behind it, pitched it as a way to build significantly more housing, something California badly needs, in a short amount of time.The company’s investors, a who’s who of Silicon Valley, included a number of billionaires including Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn co-founder, venture capitalist and Democratic donor, and Laurene Powell Jobs, the founder of the Emerson Collective.But the proposal created tension in the area. California Forever, the company driving the development, spent years buying some $900 million of farmland without revealing anything about the identities of its backers or plans for a new city. As its land holdings grew and surrounded Travis Air Force Base on three sides, neighbors and members of Congress feared it could be linked to foreign spies.The company further alienated neighbors by filing a $500 million antitrust lawsuit saying that a group of farmers who had refused to sell their land were colluding to raise prices. Despite being locked in an expensive legal battle, those neighbors had no idea who was behind the company until The New York Times revealed it last year, sowing fear and mistrust that only seemed to grow.Last week, a report commissioned by Solano County estimated the full project would require tens of billions in infrastructure investment but warned that details about the development remained so vague it was hard to assess its full impact. While most large projects often go through years of study, the report noted that “this was filed with the County only a few months after the public became aware of intentions of the proponents.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    A Harris Economy Could Prove More Progressive Than ‘Bidenomics’

    At the first Democratic presidential debate in 2019, Kamala Harris, then a senator from California, unleashed a scathing critique of the Trump economy.The future vice president billed President Donald J. Trump’s tax cuts as a giveaway to the rich, argued that the booming stock market was leaving the middle class behind and warned that his reckless trade agenda was hurting farmers in the heartland.“Frankly, this economy is not working for working people,” Ms. Harris said. “For too long the rules have been written in the favor of the people who have the most and not in favor of the people who work the most.”As Ms. Harris prepares to potentially replace President Biden atop the Democratic ticket, she now faces the challenge of articulating her own vision for steering a U.S. economy that is still grappling with inflation while drawing sharp distinctions with Mr. Trump, who has promised more tax cuts and tariffs.Ms. Harris has been an ardent defender for the White House’s economic agenda during the Biden administration, promoting the benefits of legislation such as the American Rescue Plan of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. But as an attorney general and a senator, she was at times more progressive than the president, pushing for universal health care while calling for more generous tax benefits for working-class Americans and paying for them with bigger tax increases on companies.In recent weeks, Ms. Harris has embarked on an economic “opportunity tour,” making the case that wage increases have been outpacing inflation, that manufacturing jobs are growing and that Democrats have been fighting to forgive student loan debt. Those arguments now foreshadow the case she will be making to voters as she runs against Mr. Trump.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Landlords Raise Rents Based on RealPage Software, Suits Say

    Antitrust cases contend that use of RealPage’s algorithm, which lets property owners share private data, amounts to collusion.Imagine a system that lets big landlords in your city work together to raise rents, using detailed, otherwise-private information about what their competitors are charging.Such a system is already underway, according to a series of lawsuits filed by tenants and prosecutors across the country. The plaintiffs argue that real estate software from a company called RealPage is being used by apartment owners to increase rents.Through the Texas-based company’s YieldStar product, plaintiffs say, landlords share rental pricing data and occupancy rates — information the company funnels through algorithms to spit out a suggestion for what landlords should charge renters. Those figures are often higher than they would be in a competitive market.In a vast majority of cases, landlords adopt the suggested prices, passing the costs on to tenants, the plaintiffs assert. RealPage, owned by the private equity firm Thoma Bravo, advertises its software to landlords as a tool that can help them outperform the market by 3 to 7 percent.RealPage has denied that it facilitates collusion through its software. In a statement on its website in June, the company blamed “a host of complex economic and political forces,” including an undersupply of rental housing units, for rent increases nationwide.A company spokeswoman, Jennifer Bowcock, said by email that the lawsuits were based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how revenue management software works. The software often recommends rent reductions, she added.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More