Evelyn Reynolds

Black women saw their unemployment rate fall to 4.4% from 4.8%.
Among Hispanic women, the unemployment rate jumped to 5% from 4.3%.
Valerie Wilson, director at the Economic Policy Institute’s Program on Race, Ethnicity and the Economy, said that the labor market is showing positive signs for Black women.

A sign posted outside a restaurant looking to hire workers in Miami on May 5, 2023.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Unemployment among Black women fell in February as the number of those looking for work increased, data released Friday by the U.S. government showed.
The U.S. unemployment rate edged higher last month to 3.9% from 3.7% in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Adult women age 20 and older in the labor force followed that trend, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.5% from 3.2%.

The percentage of unemployed Black women, however, fell to 4.4% from 4.8%. This comes as the labor force participation rate within the group — which measures how many workers are currently employed or searching for work — rises to 63.4% from 62.9%.

Valerie Wilson, director at the Economic Policy Institute’s Program on Race, Ethnicity and the Economy, said that the labor market is showing positive signs for Black women. She pointed to the decrease in the unemployment rate, while the employment/population ratio edged higher to 60.6% from 59.9%.
“That seems unambiguously that things are moving in a positive direction,” she told CNBC.
As for why the cohort was able to buck the trend, Wilson said it could be due to the specific industries that added jobs last month.
“We saw increases in health care and government services, which are sectors where we see a significant number of Black women being employed,” she said. “The fact that those were two sectors that added jobs and had the highest job growth in the last month is probably a factor in that increased participation rate and reduced unemployment rate.”

For Hispanic women, unemployment rose to 5% from 4.3%.
Overall, with the unemployment rate still sitting below 4%, this month’s report paints the picture of a strong labor market, Wilson said.
“At this point, at that lower rate of unemployment, you’re not going to get huge shifts as long as that growth is still positive on the net,” she said. While economists could still see slight moves from month to month, at the current pace of U.S. job growth, the labor market should remain stable and steady.
— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.

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Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%. Wall Street had been looking for 198,000 new jobs and unemployment at 3.7%.
Downward revisions to December and January reduced initial estimates by 167,000 jobs.
Wages rose just 0.1% on the month, one-tenth of a percentage point below the estimate, and were up 4.3% from a year ago.
Health care led with 67,000 new jobs. Government again was a big contributor, with 52,000, while restaurants and bars added 42,000.

Job creation topped expectations in February, but the unemployment rate moved higher and employment growth from the previous two months wasn’t nearly as hot as initially reported.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payroll growth of 198,000.

February was a step higher in growth from January, which saw a steep downward revision to 229,000, from the initially reported 353,000. Job growth in December also was revised down to 290,000 from 333,000, bringing the two-month total to 167,000 fewer jobs than initially reported.

The jobless level increased as the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 184,000 in those employed. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%, though the “prime age” rate increased to 83.5%, up two-tenths of a percentage point. The survey of establishments shows the total number of jobs.
Average hourly earnings, watched closely as an inflation indicator, showed a slightly less than expected increase for the month and a deceleration from a year ago. Wages rose just 0.1% on the month, one-tenth of a percentage point below the estimate, and were up 4.3% from a year ago, down from the 4.5% gain in January and slightly below the 4.4% estimate.
Hours worked rebounded from a slip in January, with the average work week up to 34.3 hours, an increase of 0.1 percentage point.

The jobs numbers likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates later this year, though the timing and extent remain uncertain.

Stocks rose Friday following the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up nearly 150 points in early trading. Treasury yields moved lower; the benchmark 10-year note was last at 4.07%, down about 0.02 percentage points on the session.
“It’s got literally a data point for every view on the spectrum,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said of the report. Those range from “the economy is plunging into a recession to Goldilocks, everything is fine, nothing to see here. It’s certainly mixed,” she added.
Job creation skewed toward part-time positions. Full-time jobs decreased by 187,000 while part-time employment rose by 51,000, according to the household survey. An alternative jobless measure, sometimes called the “real” unemployment rate, that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose slightly to 7.3%.

From a sector standpoint, health care led with 67,000 new jobs. Government again was a big contributor, with 52,000, while restaurants and bars added 42,000 and social assistance increased by 24,000. Other gainers included construction (23,000), transportation and warehousing (20,000) and retail (19,000).
The report comes with markets on edge about the state of growth in the broader economy and the impact that might have on monetary policy. Futures trading moved slightly after the report, with traders now pricing in the greater certainty of an initial Fed interest rate cut in June.
“There’s no new thing under the sun between this report and last month’s report. It doesn’t really give us a whole lot of information, other than we can qualitatively say, we’re still growing jobs at a good pace and wages are still a little bit higher than we would like,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas.
North added that the report probably “doesn’t change the narrative” for the Fed, though he thinks the first cut may not happen until July.
In recent days, Fed officials have sent mixed signals, indicating that inflation is cooling but not by enough to warrant the first interest rate cuts since the early days of the Covid pandemic crisis.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking this week on Capitol Hill, described the labor market as “relatively tight” but moving into better balance from the days when job openings outnumbered available workers by a 2-to-1 margin.

Along with that, he said inflation “has eased notably” though still not showing enough progress back to the Fed’s 2% target. But on Thursday he told the Senate Banking Committee that the state of the economy has the Fed “not far” from when it could start easing up on monetary policy.
“We’ve got a data-dependent fed, which means we’re all at the mercy of the data,” Sonders said. “Big moves outside the range of consensus on labor market data, on inflation data, can move the needle. But in-line or mixed numbers, then we all just jump to the next report.”
Job creation has stayed strong despite a spate of high-profile layoffs, particularly in the tech industry. Most recently, companies such as Cisco, Microsoft and SAP have announced substantial reductions in their workforces. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said this was the worst February for layoff announcements since 2009, in the late days of the global financial crisis.
However, workers appear to still be able to find employment. Job openings were virtually unchanged in January at nearly 9 million and still outnumbered the unemployed by 1.4 to 1. Weekly jobless claims have moved little, at 217,000 in the most recent week of filings, though continuing claims did just pass 1.9 million, and the four-week moving average for that metric hit its highest level since December 2021.
Amid the conflicting signals, markets have pared back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Futures market traders are pricing in the first reduction coming in June, versus the expectation of March at the beginning of the year, and now figure on four total cuts this year against six or seven previously, according to CME Group data.

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Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show growth of 198,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%.
A jobs market that remains red-hot could deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this year as expected.
In its most recent survey of economic conditions, the Fed found that the ultra-tight labor market has loosened somewhat, but there are still active pockets.

A workers stocks the shelves in a CVS pharmacy store on February 07, 2024 in Miami, Florida. 
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Job growth in the U.S. likely decelerated in February while still a long way from stall speed as companies continue to keep up demand for workers.
When the Labor Department releases the nonfarm payrolls report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, it’s expected to show growth of 198,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.

If the forecast is close to accurate, it would mark a considerable downshift from January’s explosive growth of 353,000, but still representative of a fairly vibrant labor market.
“This is kind of a cautious labor market. Employers are hiring to keep pace with business activity,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “Many businesses still report higher than expected sales. But they’re not aggressively hiring for growth and to expand. For that, many are still taking a wait-and-see approach.”
January’s surge followed a robust gain of 333,000 in December, seemingly countering the picture of an apprehensive hiring climate.
However, Pollak noted that both numbers were inflated from seasonal distortions, where retailers in particular cut fewer holiday jobs than expected. February, though, could see growth as high as 240,000, as companies look to fill an elevated level of open positions, Pollak said.

Too much growth?

ZipRecruiter’s quarterly job-seeker survey showed expectations for the medium-term outlook hitting a series high, while applicants also indicated stronger levels of confidence in their financial wellbeing and current state of the labor market.

Under normal conditions, those would all be positive attributes. But there are other concerns now.
A jobs market that remains red-hot could deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this year as expected. Earlier this week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed concern about potential “pent-up exuberance” that could be unleashed in the business community after the central bank starts easing.
“Once rate cuts begin, that will give a boost to certain industries that they’ve been waiting for, especially when it comes to capital investments,” Pollak said. “Many companies are still holding back and waiting. Manufacturing will be a very interesting one to watch. There has recently been a bit of an improvement in durable goods manufacturing job openings. The checks are in the mail.”
Markets expect the Fed to start cutting rates in June, though the outlook has become less certain in recent weeks as policymakers weigh the direction of inflation.
Despite the uncertainty over monetary policy, companies have forged ahead with hiring.

There have been mixed signs regarding layoffs. This was the biggest February for announced layoffs since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, but workers seem to be able to find other jobs quickly, as evidenced by little change in the weekly jobless claim filings with the Labor Department.
The department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January, released earlier this week, showed layoffs actually decreased over the month and were down nearly 16% from a year ago. Job openings were little changed on the month but decreased 15% from the same period in 2023. Vacancies outnumbered available workers 1.4 to 1, down from 1.8 to 1 on the year.
“I haven’t seen layoffs,” said Tom Gimbel, founder and CEO of LaSalle Network, a staffing and recruiting firm. “What I keep seeing is the small- and mid-market going after market share, and the hiring seems to come in that bracket. They’re hiring the people that the bigger companies, specifically Big Tech, are laying off.”

Demand still strong

Indeed, a steady procession of layoffs at tech giants has attracted headlines recently. The trend continued into February, as employment placement site Indeed reported a 28% slide in job postings for software development and a 26% plunge in information design and documentation.
But other sectors are still showing demand. Job postings surged 102% for physicians and surgeons, 83% for therapists and 82% for civil engineering.
In its most recent survey of economic conditions, the Fed found that the ultra-tight labor market has loosened somewhat, but there are still active pockets.
“Businesses generally found it easier to fill open positions and to find qualified applicants, although difficulties persisted attracting workers for highly skilled positions, including health-care professionals, engineers, and skilled trades specialists such as welders and mechanics,” the Fed said in its “Beige Book” report released Wednesday.
The report precedes each Fed meeting by two weeks and helps inform policymakers on trends across the economy. Business contacts noted that wages are continuing to rise, though at a slower pace. Wage gains are an important piece of the inflation puzzle.
Friday’s report is expected to show average hourly earnings up just 0.2% on the month, down from a 0.6% jump in January, though still increasing at a 4.4% pace. The big monthly move in January came largely from a decline in the average work week, which elevates the appearance of average hourly earnings.
Even with the hotter than expected inflation numbers, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that the central bank is “not far” from gaining enough confidence in the trajectory of inflation to start cutting rates.
“A lot of the hourly wage increases were driven by two things primarily: more liberal municipalities, and a scarcity of workers from Covid,” Gimbel said. “I don’t see a lot of wage growth this year.” More

Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since 2009, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday.
With a series of high-profile layoff waves, tech leads the way this year in cuts with 28,218, though that number has fallen 55% from the same period a year ago.

More than 75 employers were taking resumes and talking to prospective new hires at a career fair in Lake Forest, CA on Wednesday, February 21, 2024. 
Paul Bersebach | Medianews Group | Orange County Register | Getty Images

Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The total of 84,638 planned cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront.

From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end. Financial markets bottomed the following month, paving the way for the longest economic expansion on record, lasting until the Covid pandemic in March 2020.
For the year, companies have listed 166,945 cuts, a decrease of 7.6% from a year ago.
“As we navigate the start of 2024, we’re witnessing a persistent wave of layoffs,” said Andrew Challenger, the firm’s labor and workplace expert. “Businesses are aggressively slashing costs and embracing technological innovations, actions that are significantly reshaping staffing needs.”
With a series of high-profile layoff waves, tech leads the way this year in cuts with 28,218, though that number has fallen 55% from the same period a year ago. Layoff announcements at financial firms have risen 56% compared with the first two months of 2023.
Other industries planning significant cuts include industrial goods manufacturing (up 1,754% from a year ago), energy (up 1,059%) and education (up 944%).

The layoff numbers, however, are not feeding through to weekly jobless claims, suggesting that unemployment is short-lived and workers are able to find new positions. Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 217,000 in the most recent week, unchanged from the previous period and exactly in line with Wall Street estimates.
Challenger’s experts say companies most often cite restructuring plans as the main reason for the reductions in workforce. Artificial intelligence has been cited for just 383 cuts, though “technological updates” in general have been at the root of more than 15,000 reductions, or nearly as much as all the years combined since 2007.
“In truth, companies are also implementing robotics and automation in addition to AI. It’s worth noting that last year alone, AI was directly cited in 4,247 job reductions, suggesting a growing impact on companies’ workforces,” Challenger reported.

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