Evelyn Reynolds

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    How Food Prices Have Changed During the Biden Administration

    Grocery prices are no longer rising as rapidly, but food inflation remains a top issue for voters, polls show.A central issue has plagued the Biden administration for most of its term: the steep rise in grocery prices.Polls have consistently found that inflation remains a top concern for voters, who have seen their budgets squeezed. A YouGov poll published last month found that 64 percent of Americans said inflation was a “very serious problem.” And when it comes to inflation, several surveys suggested that Americans were most concerned about grocery prices.Despite the gloom about grocery costs, food price increases have generally been cooling for months. On Wednesday, new data on inflation for July will show if the trend has continued.Economists in a Bloomberg survey think that inflation overall probably climbed by 3 percent from a year earlier, in line with a 3 percent rise in June. That sort of reading would probably keep officials at the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates in September. Investors, who were recently rattled by signs of an economic slowdown, have looked to rate cuts as a support for markets.Some voters have blamed President Biden for rising prices, pointing out that food costs have soared over the past four years. Former President Donald J. Trump, when accepting the Republican nomination last month, highlighted grocery costs and said that he would “make America affordable again.”In the year through June, grocery prices rose 1.1 percent, a significant slowdown from a recent peak of 13.5 percent in August 2022. Many consumers might not be feeling relief, though, because food prices overall have not fallen but have continued to increase, albeit at a slower rate. Compared with four years ago, grocery prices are up about 20 percent.

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    Annual change in grocery prices for U.S. consumers
    Year-over-year change in average for “food at home” index, not seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Wholesale inflation measure rose 0.1% in July, less than expected

    The producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, increased 0.1% on the month, less than 0.2% forecast. PPI excluding food and energy was flat.
    On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI rose 2.2%, a sharp drop from the 2.7% reading in June.

    A key measure of wholesale inflation rose less than expected in July, opening the door further for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
    The producer price index, which measures selling prices that producers get for goods and services, increased 0.1% on the month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy components, the core PPI was flat.

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.2% on both the all-items and the core readings.
    A further core measure that also excludes trade services showed a rise of 0.3%.
    On a year-over-year basis, the headline PPI increased 2.2%, a sharp drop from the 2.7% reading in June.
    Stock market futures rose following the news while Treasury yields moved lower.
    The wholesale inflation reading was relatively tame despite a 0.6% jump in final demand goods prices, the biggest move higher since February and due primarily to a 1.9% surge in energy, including a 2.8% increase in gasoline.

    Countering the move was a 0.2% slide in services, the biggest move lower since March 2023, according to the BLS. Trade services prices fell 1.3% while margins for machinery and vehicles wholesaling tumbled 4.1%. An increase of 2.3% in portfolio management offset some of the decline in services prices.
    The PPI is considered a leading indicator for inflation as it gauges pipeline inflation from the perspective of manufacturers and suppliers of goods and services. Its counterpart, to be released Wednesday, is the consumer price index, which measures the actual prices consumers pay in the marketplace. Economists also expect 0.2% monthly increases for both headline and core CPI.
    Both measures are watched closely for inflation signs. Though the Fed more closely focuses on the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the CPI and PPI both feed into that calculation.
    The latest inflation data comes with markets fully pricing in an interest rate cut at the September meeting of the Fed’s open market committee. The main question now is whether the central bank will cut by a quarter or a half percentage point. The futures market currently rates it a toss-up.
    Fed officials have vowed to keep up the inflation fight until they have reached their 2% goal, and the latest data for the most part has been cooperating.
    A survey the New York Fed released Monday showed that consumers’ view of inflation three years from now fell to 2.3%, the lowest in the 11-year history of the survey.
    Moreover, the survey also showed consumers, particularly at the lower end of the income scale, are beginning to suffer more from inflation. For instance, the perceived likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months jumped to 13.3%, the highest since April 2020, with the biggest part of the 1 percentage point monthly increase coming from households with annual income below $50,000.
    Expectations for credit access also declined, and household spending expectations over the next year fell to their lowest level since April 2021.

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    Three-year inflation outlook hits record low in New York Fed consumer survey

    The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations put the three-year inflation outlook at 2.3%, the lowest in a data series going back to June 2013.
    Household spending is expected to increase by 4.9%, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than in June and the lowest reading since April 2021.

    People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on July 11, 2024 in New York City.
    Spencer Platt | Getty Images

    Consumers grew more confident in July that inflation will be less of a problem in the coming years, according to a New York Federal Reserve report Monday that showed the three-year outlook at a new low.
    The latest views from the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations indicate that respondents see inflation staying elevated over the next year but then receding in the next couple of years after that.

    In fact, the three-year portion of the survey showed consumers expecting inflation at just 2.3%, down 0.6 percentage point from June and the lowest in the history of the survey, going back to June 2013.
    The results come with investors on edge about the state of inflation and whether the Federal Reserve might be able to reduce interest rates as soon as next month. Economists view expectations as a key for inflation as consumers and business owners will adjust their behavior if they think prices and labor costs are likely to continue to rise.
    On Wednesday, the Labor Department will release its own monthly inflation reading, the consumer price index, which is expected to show an increase of 0.2% in July and an annual rate of 3%, Dow Jones estimates show. That’s still a full percentage point away from the Fed’s 2% goal but about one-third of where it was two years ago.
    Markets have fully priced in the likelihood of at least a quarter percentage point rate cut in September and a strong likelihood that the Fed will lower by a full percentage point by the end of the year.
    While the medium-term outlook improved, inflation expectations on the one- and five-year horizons stood unchanged at 3% and 2.8%, respectively.

    However, there was some other good inflation news in the survey.
    Respondents expect the price of gas to increase by 3.5% over the next year, 0.8 percentage point less than in June, and food to see a rise of 4.7%, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than a month ago.
    In addition, household spending is expected to increase by 4.9%, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than in June and the lowest reading since April 2021, right around the time when the current inflation surge began.
    Conversely, expectations rose for medical care, college education and rent costs. The outlook for college costs jumped to a 7.2% increase, up 1.9 percentage points, while the rent component — which has been particularly nettlesome for Fed officials who have been looking for housing costs to decline — is seen as rising by 7.1%, or 0.6 percentage point more than June.
    Expectations for employment brightened, despite the rising unemployment rate. The perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year fell to 14.3%, down half a percentage point, while the expectation of leaving one’s job voluntarily, a proxy for worker confidence about opportunities in the labor market, climbed to 20.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase for the highest reading since February 2023.

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    U.S. Officials to Visit China for Economic Talks as Trade Tensions Rise

    The recently established U.S.-China Financial Working Group is set to meet for discussions about financial stability and curbing the flow of fentanyl.A group of senior Biden administration officials is traveling to Shanghai this week for a round of high-level meetings intended to keep the economic relationship between the United States and China on stable footing amid mounting trade tensions between the two countries.The talks will take place on Thursday and Friday and are being convened through the U.S.-China Financial Working Group, which was created last year. Officials are expected to discuss ways to maintain economic and financial stability, capital markets and efforts to curb the flow of fentanyl into the United States.Although communication between the United States and China has improved over the past year, the economic relationship remains fraught because of disagreements over industrial policy and China’s dominance over green energy technology. The Biden administration imposed new tariffs in May on an array of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors and advanced batteries. The United States is also restricting American investments in Chinese sectors that policymakers believe could threaten national security.The U.S. delegation, which is scheduled to depart on Monday, is being led by Brent Neiman, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for international finance. He will be joined by officials from the Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission. They are expected to meet with the People’s Bank of China’s deputy governor, Xuan Changneng, and other senior Chinese officials.“We intend for this F.W.G. meeting to include conversations on financial stability, issues related to cross-border data, lending and payments, private-sector efforts to advance transition finance, and concrete steps we can take to improve communication in the event of financial stress,” Mr. Neiman said ahead of the trip, referring to the abbreviation for the financial working group.Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen pressed Chinese officials during her trip to China in April to stop flooding global markets with cheap clean-energy products.Pool photo by Tatan SyuflanaAmerican and Chinese financial regulators have been conducting financial shock exercises this year to coordinate their responses in the event of a crisis, like a cyberattack or climate disaster, that might affect the international banking or insurance systems.The Biden administration has been urging China to take action to prevent chemicals used to produce fentanyl from being exported to other countries and smuggled into the United States. There were signs of progress this month when China announced that it would put new restrictions on three of these chemicals, a move that the United States described as a “valuable step forward.”Other economic issues between the two countries continue to be contentious. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen pressed Chinese officials during her trip to China in April to stop flooding global markets with cheap clean-energy products, warning that its excess industrial capacity would distort global supply chains.But after a meeting of Communist Party leaders last month, there was little indication that China would retreat from its investments in high-tech manufacturing or take major steps toward rebalancing its economy by bolstering domestic consumption.The talks this week are the fifth meeting of the financial working group and will be the second time the officials have convened in China. More

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    Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games Planners See Economic Upside

    The 2028 Games will be the third for Los Angeles as host, but it will be a challenge to repeat the success of 1984.What Paris Olympics? Los Angeles is already looking ahead.As the city prepares to host the 2028 Games, construction crews have fanned out, racing to bolster the area’s infrastructure to accommodate hundreds of thousands of visitors.Three main projects — expanding the rail system, revamping the airport and renovating the downtown convention center, which will be the competition venue for five sports — will have lasting effects on the region. The projects are funded through a mix of federal and city dollars as well as airport fees. And there will also be the tourist dollars spent while the Games take place.The city sees the Olympics as a revenue producer, not an expense. Now it must disprove the skeptics who say it could be a boondoggle.In 2019, two years after Los Angeles was awarded the Games, Eric Garcetti, then the mayor, said he expected the city to turn a $1 billion profit.For the current mayor, Karen Bass, hosting the Olympics is more than an opportunity to showcase familiar attractions like Hollywood or Venice Beach. It’s also about connecting visitors with small businesses citywide.“What determines success is for everybody to benefit,” Ms. Bass said in an interview. “They need to know about Little Bangladesh and Little Ethiopia and Little Armenia.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Economic Grievances Were Exploited in Britain’s Violent Unrest

    Nationalist hatred has been linked to forces like stagnant wages and declining services, even though research shows immigration helps many economies.Like many cities around Britain shaken by anti-immigrant riots over the past week, Hartlepool, a seaside town on the northeast coast, has partly recovered from the devastating waves of industrial decline that began washing over the country in the 1980s.Still, the scars linger. Disposable income is below the national average, and more people are out of the work force, according to the Office for National Statistics. There are fewer active businesses, healthy life expectancy is lower and the crime rate is 89 percent higher.In Britain, as well as throughout Europe and in the United States, economic problems — like stagnant wages, roaring inequality and declining public services — have been linked to the rise of anti-immigrant attitudes.Even though research shows that immigration is an overall plus for most economies, far-right politicians have been able to exploit those frustrations to energize supporters and gain political power.In Britain, Nigel Farage, the leader of the populist, anti-immigration party Reform, has regularly made false claims that refugees and migrants drained public budgets. He has complained, for instance, about Britain having to “build a house every two minutes” to accommodate legal migrants and warned of “those arriving on the back of lorries” trying to get benefits.Mr. Farage, who was elected to Parliament in July, added to the web of disinformation that helped kindle the riots by inaccurately suggesting the man who fatally stabbed three young children at a dance class in Southport was an undocumented immigrant. He later came out against the violence.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Stellantis to Lay Off Up to 2,450 at Ram Truck Plant in Warren, Michigan

    The move is the latest sign of trouble for the trans-Atlantic automaker, which has had sluggish North American sales and has said it needs to cut costs.Stellantis announced plans on Friday to lay off as many as 2,450 workers later this year at a pickup truck plant near Detroit, the latest sign of trouble for the trans-Atlantic automaker.The layoffs are expected to begin as early as Oct. 8 at the Ram truck plant in Warren, Mich., where production will be reduced to one shift from two, the company said on Friday.Stellantis’s chief executive, Carlos Tavares, has said the company needs to cut costs, and he has noted that at least one North American factory was operating at an unsatisfactory level.The company has been hit by sluggish sales in North America, where it generates most of its profits, as well as bloated costs and manufacturing inefficiencies. It reported last month that profits in the first six months of 2024 fell by nearly half to 5.6 billion euros (about $6 billion).“It is an understatement to say that the first-half 2024 results were disappointing and humbling,” Mr. Tavares said on a call with analysts after the earnings report. “This is a bump on the road that we are now fixing and that we are going to fight against to make sure that we can rebound from here, and that we fix the operational issues that we face.”The layoffs are related to a planned transition to a new version of the Ram pickup that is just going into production at a plant in Sterling Heights, Mich. The Warren plant will continue making an older version of the truck on one shift, the company said on Friday, adding that the actual number of workers affected will probably be lower than the 2,450 noted in a report to the state of Michigan.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Vies With Allies and Industry to Tighten China Tech Controls

    The Biden administration must navigate the interests of U.S. companies and allied governments as it tries to close off China’s access to advanced chipsThe Biden administration is fighting to overcome opposition from allied nations and the tech industry as it prepares to expand restrictions aimed at slowing China’s ability to make the most advanced semiconductors, which could be used to bolster Beijing’s military capacity.The administration has drafted new rules that would limit shipments to China of the machinery and software used to make chips from a number of countries if they are made with American parts or technology, as well as some types of semiconductors, according to people who have seen or were briefed on a draft version of the rules.The rules are aimed at blocking off some of the newer routes that Chinese chipmakers have found to acquire technology, despite international restrictions.The United States has been pushing allies like Japan and the Netherlands to toughen their restrictions on technology shipments to China, during visits to those countries as well as a Japanese state visit to Washington in April. Those nations are home to companies that produce chip-making machinery, like ASML Holding N.V. and Tokyo Electron Limited. But industry in the United States and other countries has argued the rules could hurt them, and it remains unclear when or if foreign governments will issue limitations.In the meantime, some of the rules that the United States plans to impose would have significant carve-outs, the people said. The rules blocking shipments of equipment to certain semiconductor factories in China would not apply to more than 30 allied countries, including the Netherlands, South Korea and Japan.That has sparked pushback from U.S. firms, who argue that the playing field will be further tilted against them if the U.S. government stops their sales but not those of their competitors.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More