Evelyn Reynolds

“Türkiye stands out with a staggering growth of over 157% in wealth per adult between 2022 and 2023, leaving all other nations far behind,” Swiss bank UBS wrote in its Global Wealth Report 2024.
The next-highest countries in terms of average wealth growth per adult were Qatar at 20% and South Africa with about 16%. In the U.S., average wealth per adult grew just 2.5%.
Inflation in Turkey sits at just over 71%, an eye-watering figure for its population of 85 million people, many of whom have seen a dramatic drop in their purchasing power over the last several years.

Golden Horn and Bosphorus at sunset, Istanbul, Turkey
Matteo Colombo | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Turkey came out miles ahead of the rest of the world in an annual global wealth ranking — in a result that may come as surprising, given the country’s high levels of inflation.
“Türkiye stands out with a staggering growth of over 157% in wealth per adult between 2022 and 2023, leaving all other nations far behind,” Swiss bank UBS wrote in its Global Wealth Report 2024, using the local spelling for the country’s name.

The next-highest countries in terms of average wealth growth per adult were Russia and Qatar with nearly 20% and South Africa with just over 16%. In the U.S., average wealth per adult grew by nearly 2.5%.
Inflation in Turkey sits at nearly 72%, an eye-watering figure for the country’s 85 million people, many of whom have seen a dramatic drop in their purchasing power over the last several years. In the last five years, the Turkish lira has lost nearly 83% of its value against the dollar, and the currency trades at 33 lira to the greenback as of 09:07 a.m. London time on Wednesday.
But for Turks who own assets like homes, wealth has grown, as inflation pushes up the costs of those holdings.
The UBS report defines net worth or “wealth” as “the value of financial assets plus real assets (principally housing) owned by households, minus their debts.” In a call with journalists, some of the report’s authors broke down the relationship between inflation and wealth rises in Turkey.
“In certain ways, the high pace of inflation also helps explain why wealth has risen much much more in local currency terms, at least [more] than in other countries because it’s worth keeping in mind that wealth is measured in nominal terms,” Samuel Adams economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, told CNBC.

“If inflation is very high, what tends to happen is that if you have a real asset like housing, the house prices tend to rise in line with inflation, if not even faster,” he said. “So those people with have homeownership, or who have equities, which also tend to perform fairly well in those environments, they tend to see their wealth accumulate a bit faster.
“Of course, it doesn’t mean that everybody benefits to the same extent,” Adams added. “If you’re not in those assets, if your wage rises don’t keep pace with inflation, then, of course, it will be fairly negatively affected.”
The report also noted the “currency effect”, which is what changes wealth growth the most — local currency growth figures for wealth are often significantly different from those in dollar terms.
“Türkiye’s already exceptional growth of over 63% in USD … more than doubles to nearly 158% in Turkish lira,” it said. Other examples in the report included Japan, which in dollar terms has seen less than 2% average growth in wealth per adult in U.S. dollar terms between 2022-23, but in local currency that growth was 9%.

Cityscape at sunset on March 4, 2024 in Istanbul, Turkey.
Dia Images | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Evaluating countries’ average wealth growth between the years of 2008 and 2023, “the most dramatic evolution has taken place in Türkiye,” UBS wrote, “where average wealth per adult in this period has shot up by 1708% in local currency.”
UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Economist Paul Donovan pointed out that being asset-rich does not necessarily mean being cash-rich — in Turkey, this could actually be the opposite.
“In terms of living standards rather than wealth, it’s also important to remember that if you own a house, the value of your house has gone up, but your real wage may be negative at the same time. So you can be … asset rich and cash poor,” Donovan said last week.
“That’s certainly a possibility, where a lot of the stresses that have arisen in the Turkish economy over the last few years have come about because of negative real income,” he added, “not necessarily what’s happening on the asset side.” More

The Republican presidential candidate told Bloomberg Businessweek he would allow the Fed chair to finish his term if he wins in November.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who took the helm at the central bank in 2018, has had a strained relationship with former President Donald Trump.
In 2019, Trump had called for lower interest rates, arguing the rate policy at the time put the U.S. at a disadvantage against other nations. He took to social media to criticize the central bank leader.
In February of this year, Trump told Fox Business that he wouldn’t reappoint Powell.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump raises his fist during Day 1 of the Republican National Convention (RNC) at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., July 15, 2024. 
Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

Donald Trump will allow Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to complete his term at the central bank if he won the November election, the Republican presidential candidate told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview.
“I would let him serve it out, especially if I thought he was doing the right thing,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek. President Joe Biden nominated Powell to serve a second four-year term as Fed chief in May 2022.

Powell is also a Fed governor, a position he will hold until Jan. 31, 2028.
These comments mark an about-face from the former president, who has had a strained relationship with the central bank leader.
Powell took the helm as Fed chief in February 2018, and he had faced criticism from then-President Trump over the years on interest rate policy.
Back in 2019, Trump criticized the central bank and its leader — even as policymakers lowered rates three times that year, eventually to a target range of 1.5% to 1.75% — arguing the U.S. was at an economic disadvantage against other countries with lower rates.
As recently as February of this year, Trump told Fox Business that he would not reappoint Powell to lead the Fed. “I think he’s political,” he told journalist Maria Bartiromo. “I think he’s going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates.”
Read the Bloomberg Businessweek article here.

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In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the International Monetary Fund said “the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path.”
The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. 

The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that upside risks to inflation have increased, calling into question the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. 
In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said “the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path.” The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. 

The report comes as traders ramp up bets for a Fed rate cut in September. Per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, Wall Street has priced in a 100% chance of lower rates at the Sept. 18 meeting. Traders also expect another rate decrease in November.
However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday that one rate cut from the Fed is most appropriate this year, highlighting still-stubborn services and wage inflation as complications to the path to lower inflation. 
Gourinchas said that while the robust wages and service inflation are “not necessarily a source of worry,” they are points of concern for the U.S. economy. His comments came after the U.S. Labor Department said the consumer price index grew last month at its slowest year-over-year pace since April 2021.
Despite the encouraging CPI report, Gourinchas stated the uptick in inflation earlier in the year indicates that the path toward lower inflation and rate cuts “could take a little bit longer than maybe the markets are expecting.” 
“We’re more in the camp that there could be some cuts in the latter part of the year but maybe just one, or 2024 and maybe the rest of 2025,” Gourinchas said. 

Across advanced economies globally, the IMF forecasts the rate of disinflation to slow in 2024 and 2025 due to broadly high service inflation and commodity prices. 
Concerning the U.S. economy, the financial institution lowered its growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in 2024 on cooling consumption and slower-than-expected growth at the start of the year.

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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its U.K. growth forecast for 2024 to 0.7%.
It is the latest in a string of upgrades for the U.K.’s economic outlook, giving the country’s new government a boost.
Goldman Sachs earlier this month nudged its 2025 forecast for the U.K. economy 0.1 percentage point higher, citing the Labour party’s fiscal plans.

Seen through the branches of trees in Ruskin Park are the lit porches of terraced period homes and in the distance, the growing development at Nine Elms, on 14th May 2024, in London, England. 
Richard Baker | In Pictures | Getty Images

LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its 2024 growth outlook for the U.K. to 0.7% from 0.5%, providing a further boost to the country’s new government.
Looking ahead, the Washington, D.C.-based IMF reiterated its forecast for 1.5% U.K. growth in 2025 in the July update of its World Economic Outlook.

The upgrades come after two years of stagnation, with the U.K. falling into a shallow recession in the second half of 2023. However, GDP growth in May came in above analyst expectations at 0.4%, while summer events including the Euro 2024 soccer championship and even Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour are expected to bolster economic activity.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs earlier this month nudged its 2025 forecast for the U.K. economy 0.1 percentage point higher, to 1.6%. It cited the fiscal plans of the new Labour government led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which include planning reform and closer trade ties with the European Union.
Deutsche Bank on Friday joined Goldman in brightening its U.K. outlook, with economists saying in a note they now expect gross domestic product growth of 1.2% this year, well above their earlier 0.8% forecast.
The country’s GDP in May showed the strength of sectors across professional services and construction, Deutsche Bank said, with the Euros tournament expected to provide a further boost to hospitality and leisure.
Analysts at Jefferies, meanwhile, said in a recent note that the size of Labour’s parliamentary majority would make the U.K. appear “relatively stable,” and that in tandem with regulatory reform may raise the attractiveness of assets in the country.

It comes as the Bank of England is expected to start bringing down interest rates in the coming months. U.K. inflation hit the central bank’s 2% target in May, and economists polled by Reuters see it declining further to 1.9% in Wednesday’s print.
Other economies given a 2024 growth upgrade by the IMF on Tuesday included the euro zone, which it lifted by 0.1 percentage point to 0.9%, Spain, up 0.5 percentage point to 2.4%, and China, up 0.4 percentage point to 5%.
It lowered its forecast for the U.S. economy by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6%.
The organization sees worldwide growth at 3.2% this year, and said global activity and world trade were firmer, particularly due to strong exports from Asia.
However, it warned that the services sector was broadly holding up the disinflation process, complicating monetary policy decisions.
“Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty,” the IMF said in the World Economic Outlook.
— CNBC’s Sophie Kiderlin and Vicky McKeever contributed. More