Markus Andrews

Some taxpayers can expect to get up to $1,400 payments from the IRS by late January.
A total of 1 million taxpayers will receive an estimated $2.4 billion in payments.
The money will go to individuals who still haven’t been paid the Covid-19 relief funds — more popularly known as stimulus checks — they were due.

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The IRS plans to issue automatic “special payments” of up to $1,400 to 1 million taxpayers starting later this month, the agency announced last week.
The payments will go to individuals who did not claim the 2021 Recovery Rebate Credit on their tax returns for that year and who are eligible for the money.

The Recovery Rebate Credit is a refundable tax credit provided to individuals who did not receive one or more economic impact payments — more popularly known as stimulus checks — that were sent by the federal government in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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The maximum payment will be $1,400 per individual and will vary based on circumstances, according to the IRS. The agency will make an estimated total of about $2.4 billion in payments.
“Looking at our internal data, we realized that one million taxpayers overlooked claiming this complex credit when they were actually eligible,” IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said in a statement. “To minimize headaches and get this money to eligible taxpayers, we’re making these payments automatic, meaning these people will not be required to go through the extensive process of filing an amended return to receive it.” 

No action needed for eligible taxpayers

The new payments are slated to be sent out automatically in December. In most cases, the money should arrive by late January, according to the IRS.

Eligible taxpayers can expect to receive the money either by direct deposit or a paper check in the mail. They will also receive a separate letter notifying them about the payment.

Direct deposit payments will go to taxpayers who have current bank account information on file with the IRS.
If eligible individuals have closed their bank accounts since their 2023 tax returns, payments will be reissued by the IRS through paper checks to the mailing addresses on record. Those taxpayers do not need to take action, according to the agency.

How to tell if you qualify

The payments are only going to taxpayers who qualify for the 2021 Recovery Rebate Credit — particularly individuals who filed a 2021 tax return but who did not claim the Recovery Rebate Credit even though they were eligible, either by leaving that data field blank or entering $0.
Taxpayers who haven’t filed 2021 tax returns still have a chance to claim the credit. However, they must file by April 15, 2025, to claim the credit and any other refunds they are owed.
Claiming the Recovery Rebate Credit will not count as income and interfere with eligibility for certain other federal benefits, including Supplemental Security Income, or SSI; Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP; Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, or TANF; and Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, or WIC.
The IRS provides more information on payment eligibility and amounts on its website.

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ETF Strategist

ETF Street
ETF Strategist

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first bitcoin ETFs in January.
Earlier this month, the 12 spot bitcoin ETFs collectively surpassed $100 billion in assets under management, marking one of the most successful ETF launches in history.
Despite recent volatility, the price of bitcoin was still up nearly 120% year to date, as of Dec. 20, fueled in part by the pro-crypto policy proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.  
But there are strategies to consider before adding bitcoin ETFs to your portfolio.

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It has been a banner year for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, with some of the biggest asset managers introducing ETFs that hold the flagship digital currency. But there are things to consider before adding these ETFs to your portfolio, experts say.  
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot bitcoin ETFs in January. Earlier this month, the 12 spot bitcoin ETFs collectively surpassed $100 billion in assets under management, marking one of the most successful ETF launches in history.

Bitcoin ETFs give investors a “traditional way to buy an untraditional asset,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York.

More from ETF Strategist:

Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.

Despite recent volatility, the price of bitcoin was still up nearly 120% year to date, as of Dec. 20, fueled in part by the pro-crypto policy proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.  
There is a lot of upside potential, said Boneparth, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council. But there is typically a “tremendous amount of volatility” compared to traditional asset classes.

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If you are still ready to buy bitcoin ETFs, here’s what to consider.

Advisors remain ‘cautious’ about bitcoin ETFs

“Most advisors are still relatively cautious about using these [bitcoin ETFs] with their clients,” said Amy Arnott, a portfolio strategist with Morningstar Research Services.

To that point, some 59% of financial advisors are not currently using or discussing cryptocurrency with their clients, according to a survey released in June from Cerulli Associates. The survey polled 271 advisors during the first quarter of 2024, when the price of bitcoin was lower.  

Follow a ‘rebalancing policy’

If you are eager to add bitcoin ETFs to your portfolio, Arnott suggests keeping your allocation small — around 2% to 3%, maximum — and rebalancing regularly.
Your allocation should be based on your goals, risk tolerance and timeline. Without rebalancing, a ballooning bitcoin ETF position could have a “drastic impact on the overall portfolio’s risk profile,” she said.

It’s good to rebalance on a regular schedule, quarterly at a minimum, or even monthly…

Amy Arnott
Portfolio strategist with Morningstar Research Services

You can follow a “rebalancing policy” by trimming profits whenever your bitcoin ETF allocation exceeds a predetermined percent of your portfolio, Arnott said. That requires regular monitoring.
“It’s good to rebalance on a regular schedule, quarterly at a minimum, or even monthly” for volatile assets such as bitcoin, she said.

Consider your timeline

Like other investments, it is important to consider your goals and timeline before adding bitcoin ETFs to your portfolio, Arnott said.
Similar to stocks, Morningstar’s portfolio framework recommends holding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for at least 10 years due to volatility, periodic drawdowns and crypto winters.
“It’s not a good place to be if you’re saving for a down payment on the house in a few years,” Arnott said. More

A Walmart Supercenter during Walmart’s multiweek Annual Deals Shopping Event in Burbank, California, on Nov. 21, 2024.
Allen J. Schaben | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

Investors can benefit by creating a diversified portfolio of growth and dividend stocks, enhancing their overall returns through capital appreciation and regular income.
With the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates by another 25 basis points, several investors are looking for lucrative dividend picks as the attractiveness of these stocks increases in a lower interest rate environment. To this end, investors can track the recommendations of top Wall Street analysts to select reliable dividend stocks with solid fundamentals.

Here are three dividend-paying stocks, highlighted by Wall Street’s top pros as tracked by TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

Walmart

We start this week with big-box retailer Walmart (WMT), which has raised its dividend for 51 consecutive years. Last month, the company reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and raised its full-year outlook. The stock has a dividend yield of 0.9%.
Recently, Tigress Financial analyst Ivan Feinseth reiterated a buy rating on WMT stock and increased the price target to $115 from $86. The analyst highlighted that the company continues to win market share in the U.S., with both groceries as well as general merchandise categories, especially among upper-income families.
Feinseth also noted that Walmart is capitalizing on generative artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve the customer shopping experience, both in-store and online. In this regard, the analyst mentioned the company’s generative AI-powered shopping assistant — currently in its beta test phase — that will help customers select products based on their unique needs.
The analyst pointed out that Walmart is also leveraging technology and automation to improve its operating efficiency, as well as build its supply chain and fulfillment capabilities to reduce costs and drive higher profitability.

Feinseth also mentioned Walmart’s other strengths, such as continued growth in e-commerce, solid brand equity, increase in Walmart+ memberships, and advertising growth. The analyst sees further upside potential in the stock and added that “WMT also enhances shareholder returns through ongoing dividend increases and share repurchases.”
Feinseth ranks No. 190 among more than 9,200 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 62% of the time, delivering an average return of 14.4%. See Walmart Stock Buybacks on TipRanks.

Gaming and Leisure Properties

This week’s next dividend stock is Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI), a real estate investment trust (REIT) that leases properties to gaming operators under triple-net lease arrangements. In a triple-net lease arrangement, in addition to rent, tenants are responsible for all costs related to the leased assets, including facility maintenance and insurance.
GLPI announced a dividend of 76 cents per share for the fourth quarter, reflecting a 4.1% year-over-year increase. GLPI offers an attractive yield of 6.5%.
In a recent research note on the net lease REITs space, RBC Capital analyst Brad Heffern highlighted that GLPI is a part of RBC’s “Top 30 Global Ideas” list. Heffern has a buy rating on GLPI stock with a price target of $57.
The analyst expects GLPI’s investment pipeline worth over $2 billion to contribute significantly to future growth, as capitalization rates for the deals in the pipeline were mostly negotiated during a higher rate environment. Consequently, if rates come down, then Heffern expects gaming capitalization rates to be “more sticky” than other categories in the net lease space, which would help in sustaining higher spreads.
Moreover, GLPI recently entered into a $110 million term loan facility with the Ione Band of Miwok Indians to fund the tribe’s new casino development near Sacramento. This marks the company’s entry into the attractive tribal gaming space, with the possibility of additional acquisitions acting as a potential catalyst for GLPI stock.
The analyst also highlighted other positives like GLPI’s strong balance sheet, the probability of an enhanced credit rating and attractive valuation, given the company’s high-quality cash flows.
Heffern ranks No. 815 among more than 9,200 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 47% of the time, delivering an average return of 9.7%. See GLPI Ownership Structure on TipRanks.

Ares Management

Finally, let’s look at Ares Management (ARES), an alternative investment manager that offers investment solutions across asset classes like real estate, credit, private equity and infrastructure. Last month, the company announced a quarterly dividend of 93 cents per share for its Class A common stock, payable on Dec. 31. ARES offers a dividend yield of 2.1%.
As part of a broader research note on U.S. asset managers, RBC Capital analyst Kenneth Lee increased the price target for ARES stock to $205 from $185 and reiterated a buy rating. Heading into 2025, Lee called ARES his “favorite name” in the U.S. asset managers sector, given its dominance in the private credit space.
Moreover, the analyst expects Ares Management to gain from favorable trends in several markets like private wealth and global infrastructure. Lee also highlighted that he boosted the price targets for ARES and the stocks of several other asset managers to reflect better macro conditions and the possibility of lower corporate taxes under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.
Overall, optimism about “potential resiliency in ARES’s fundraising momentum” and the company’s asset-light model coupled with high return-on-equity supports Lee’s bullish outlook on the stock.
Lee ranks No. 19 among more than 9,200 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 73% of the time, delivering an average return of 18.8%. See Ares Management Stock Charts on TipRanks. More

New tariffs on imported goods will eventually drive up costs for vehicles in the U.S.
Carmakers and sellers may have to bear some of the added costs instead of fully passing it onto consumers, experts say.
It may take time for such changes to happen. Here’s what to expect.

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President-elect Donald Trump has been vocal about potentially raising tariffs on imported goods, which experts say could bump up car prices.
Trump has talked about implementing an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imported goods, as well as adding tariffs of 25% on all products from Mexico and Canada. On Friday, Trump told the European Union it must reduce its trade gap with the U.S. by purchasing oil and gas, or it could face tariffs as well.

Tariffs are taxes on imported goods, paid by U.S. companies that import those goods.
Tariffs have the potential to disproportionately affect auto prices because materials used to assemble a vehicle come from different parts of the world. Some components even cross U.S. borders multiple times before they even get to the factory, according to Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.
“There’s no such thing as a 100% American vehicle,” said Drury. “There’s so much complexity, even though it’s a seemingly straightforward thing.”
Component tariffs could add $600 to $2,500 per vehicle on parts from Mexico, Canada and China, according to estimates in a Wells Fargo analyst note. Prices on vehicles assembled in Mexico and Canada — which account for about 23% of vehicles sold in the U.S. — could rise $1,750 to $10,000.
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If tariffs are enacted, the sticker price drivers pay at the dealership will eventually go up, experts say. But carmakers and sellers may have to bear some of the costs, too. 
“The cost will spread across all stakeholders: automakers, dealers and consumers,” said Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive. “No one company is going to dump all of that expense directly on their consumers.” 
Here’s what to know.

Why cars may incur more tariffs than other goods

The automotive sector’s supply chain is unique because some pieces move back and forth across international borders while the part is built and assembled, experts say.
“People don’t really know where their vehicle is built and how it’s assembled from parts across the entire globe,” Drury said.
Take a steering wheel, for example. Electronic sensors or other parts that go into the steering wheel come to the United States for assembly from countries like Germany, Drury said. The steering wheel is then sent to Mexico for stitching, only for it to come back to the U.S. to be installed in the vehicle.

Vehicles could have “incrementally more tariffs applied” compared with other products, given the supply chain, said Keating.
If tariffs add to the manufacturing cost, automakers can’t risk passing on the entire tab to the shopper, experts say.
Carmakers and dealers may have to “bear some of the burden,” Drury said. “If you look at how expensive vehicles could get with those tariffs, there’s no way they’re going to be able to move as many [cars].”
There is, however, a silver lining — a lot of cars that will be on the lots in early 2025 have already been assembled or are currently being made, further adding to next year’s available supply, Keating said.

What car shoppers can expect in 2025

Car shoppers in 2025 are unlikely to see prices that factor in new tariffs, experts say. Baseline prices will be about the same, and dealers are likely to offer more incentives to pull in buyers next year. 
The average transaction price for new cars is expected to hover between $47,000 and $48,000, according to Keating. As of November, the average price was $48,724, 1.5% higher from a year before, per Kelley Blue Book data.
While the average price is higher than pre-pandemic levels, “the good news is it’s relatively stable. We’re not vacillating all over the place,” Keating said. 

As of December, average auto loan rates for new cars are at 9.01% while borrowing costs for used vehicles are at 13.76%, per Cox Automotive. The average rates for both types of loans are down about a full percentage point from a 24-year high earlier this year.
“We expect that consumers may see even lower rates by spring, which would create the most normal and favorable buying environment since 2019,” Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive, wrote in the report.
For now, experts are optimistic for the auto market next year as inventory and deal opportunities grow.
“Tariffs or no tariffs, there will be more incentives,” Drury said. More

Pavlo Gonchar | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Company: Riot Platforms (RIOT)

Business: Riot Platforms is a bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure company. It has bitcoin mining operations in central Texas and Kentucky, and electrical switchgear engineering and fabrication operations in Denver. It operates a bitcoin-driven infrastructure platform. Its segments include Bitcoin Mining and Engineering. The Bitcoin Mining segment is engaged in bitcoin mining. The Engineering segment designs and manufacturers power distribution equipment and custom engineered electrical products.
Stock Market Value: $3.97B ($11.55 per share)

Stock chart icon

Riot Platforms in 2024

Activist: Starboard Value

Ownership: n/a
Average Cost: n/a
Activist Commentary: Starboard is a very successful activist investor and has extensive experience helping companies focus on operational efficiency and margin improvement. Starboard has taken a total of 155 prior activist campaigns in its history and has an average return of 23.27% versus 15.27% for the Russell 2000 over the same period.

What’s happening

Starboard has acquired a position in Riot Platforms and sees opportunities for operational and strategic value creation.

Behind the scenes

Riot Platforms is engaged in both the mining of bitcoin, as well as owning and operating its own mining facilities. Vertical integration enables Riot to directly control its operations and manage input costs such as power and overhead fees, as opposed to renting out space from third-party data center operators. Riot has two business segments: Bitcoin Mining and Engineering (designing and manufacturing power distribution equipment and custom-engineered electrical products). The company is one of the largest publicly traded bitcoin miners with over 1 gigawatt (GW) of developed power capacity between its facilities in Rockdale, Texas; Corsicana, Texas; and Kentucky. Riot also owns 16,728 bitcoins.

Despite bitcoin being up approximately 130% this year and an incoming presidential administration favorable to cryptocurrency, Riot’s stock price has declined by 24% prior to the announcement of Starboard’s position versus an average year-to-date return of over 100% for its peers. This significant underperformance in a company with such strong tailwinds can only mean an extreme lack of confidence in management – and for good reason. First, spending on selling, general and administrative expenses is out of control up to $225 million in the past year up from $67 million in 2022. Part of the reason for this is the stock-based compensation paid to executives. Despite continually delivering losses and with a three-year return of -54.7%, management has paid themselves 11.5%, 9.5%, and 32.12% of total revenue in stock-based compensation over the past three years. Accordingly, the company has the highest power cost plus cash SG&A expense per coin in the space, despite having access to relatively cheap power, as well as the highest stock compensation per coin. Accordingly, the company has delivered negative net operating income in each of the past three years, with its largest operating loss ever this year of $304 million. Add to this a horrible corporate governance track record with a five-person staggered board and instances of nepotism within the higher levels of the company. As a result, Riot trades at one of the cheapest multiples in the industry on the basis of enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization and EV to PH/s (petahash per second, a measure of computational power).
Starboard has extensive experience in corporate governance and helping boards “professionalize” companies and optimize operations. Just the addition of a Starboard representative to the board would give the markets tremendous confidence that management is on the path toward shareholder value creation. Starboard is an exceptional activist with expertise in improving operational performance and margins, skills which any management team should be excited to have in an engaged shareholder. The firm will no doubt advocate for the company to reduce its needlessly high SG&A expenses and right-size executive compensation to reflect business performance.
But the good news for the board and management is that Starboard’s second part of the firm’s plan can make them all rich: Pursue the massive demand opportunity from hyperscalers or large-scale cloud computing companies that operate data centers and provide cloud infrastructure and services. These companies, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, to name a few of the largest, have been in a battle to contract out and build sites to run their High-Performance Computing (HPC) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) data center operations. Crypto mining facilities share several key inputs with these applications that make them excellent candidates for contracting out their capacity or converting their crypto operations, namely high-performance computing infrastructure, access to energy (preferably renewable), energy management expertise, and operational scalability, among others. While the specific needs of hyperscalers are not identical to those of crypto miners, it is much quicker and cheaper for them to convert existing facilities in a year or two rather than taking several years to build their own facilities from the ground up.
This is a strategy that several of Riot’s competitors have pursued much to the delight of their shareholders. Earlier this year, Core Scientific, another bitcoin miner, entered into an agreement with CoreWeave, an Nvidia-backed AI data center startup, to deliver 500 megawatts of capacity to host CoreWeave’s HPC operations. This arrangement is worth $8.7 billion in cumulative revenue over 12 years to Core Scientific, which is set to generate about $1 million in incremental cash flow per 1 MW contracted under the deal at a 75% to 80% profit margin, far more than what it would receive from its normal bitcoin mining operations. In response to Core Scientific’s first announcement of its partnership with CoreWeave in June, Core Scientific’s stock price rocketed 40% the following day and is up nearly 220% since. Despite being the fifth largest miner by hash rate, it is now the second in terms of market cap. Bit Digital, Hive Digital, Hut 8 and Iren have also already made the switch to mixed use with several other miners piloting or exploring the potential to capitalize on this massive opportunity. The stocks of Bitcoin mining firms that have already shifted capacity to HPC have delivered an average YTD return of 105.8% versus an average of -3.4% for peers who had not yet announced plans to do so (Riot, Mara Holdings, and CleanSpark).
The good news for Riot shareholders is that the company is in an excellent position to capitalize on the massive opportunity presented by leasing capacity to hyperscalers. The Rockdale, Texas bitcoin mining facility is the largest in North America with 700 MW of developed capacity. Its Corsicana, Texas facility, currently has 400 MW of capacity and, upon completion, is expected to have approximately 1 GW.  These plants have characteristics favorable to hyperscalers (access to energy, near major metro areas, low latency and controlled natural disaster risk). Extrapolating from the Core Scientific deal, Riot has the opportunity to generate $1 million of cash flow per MW on hyperscaling. The Corsicana facility will soon have 600 MW of unused capacity that can be contracted out right now to hyperscalers without affecting any of the company’s present bitcoin mining operations. Assuming Riot converted only the 600 MW it is working to bring online at its Corsicana facility, it could generate an incremental $600 million in cash flow annually (versus $313 million of revenue today). If Riot were able to convert the additional full 1.1 GW of its projected total capacity at Rockdale and Corsicana, that number could almost triple. Additionally, if the company signs a deal like Core Scientific did with CoreWeave, the hyperscaler will pay for virtually all of the capex to build or convert these operations. Moreover, in July, Riot acquired Block Mining with its Kentucky facilities and is aiming to increase its capacity from 60 MW to 300 MW, which might not be ideal for hyperscalers, but could certainly at least be used for bitcoin.
There are certainly traditional Starboard-type of levers in this engagement for shareholder value creation such as operational improvements, divestiture of non-core businesses and investments, as well as improved corporate governance.  However, the core element of the firm’s campaign and message to management is simple: Look around you. Riot is being lapped by its competitors for failing to capitalize on the massive opportunity presented by leasing capacity to hyperscalers. Every announcement of such a contract understandably sends their peers’ stock on a soaring trajectory. And Riot is in an excellent position to capitalize on this.
Riot has already come out and said that it has spoken with Starboard on several occasions, welcomes the firm’s input and looks forward to ongoing constructive dialogue in order to create value for all shareholders. However, it would not be unreasonable at first glance to think Starboard may encounter difficulties based on the company scoring very low in corporate governance metrics, its staggered five-person board with just one seat available at its next meeting, and recent actions evidencing that the company is focused solely on being the largest vertically integrated bitcoin miner. Shareholder activism often comes down to making an incontrovertible argument. Starboard has one here, at least for the 600 MW that is not being used yet. Once management sees money coming in, allowing them to grow into the outsized compensation they have been receiving, it is not a long jump to converting their other capacity.
Moreover, Riot recently purchased $510 million of bitcoin on the open market using the proceeds from a convertible senior notes offering, reflecting that it may want to acquire bitcoin today at a rate which exceeds its current mining capacity. There would be no better way to accomplish that goal than converting some of its capacity for hyperscalers to generate strong and stable cash flow well in excess of what its normal operations would. If Riot is really so adamant about owning bitcoin, it could use some of this excess cash flow to acquire some of the bitcoin it would have otherwise mined. Management must decide whether Riot wants to be a professionally run company that optimizes value for all involved or whether it just wants to be a bitcoin miner. If management decides on the latter, it will be choosing to not only forego billions of dollars in value but put itself on a path of a potential distracting and expensive proxy fight with Starboard over the next two years – at the end of which management could walk away with nothing. We do not see this happening as there seems to be a lot of room for compromise here.
Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments. Riot Platforms is owned in the fund. More

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked to 6.72% for the week ending Dec. 19, a day after the Fed meeting, according to Freddie Mac data via the Fed.
That is up from 6.60% from a week prior.
“The market is just responding to the tone of the Fed’s message,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

Homebuyers touring a house with a real estate agent.
sturti | Getty

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the third time in 2024. Despite the move, mortgage rates increased.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage spiked to 6.72% for the week ending Dec. 19, a day after the Fed meeting, according to Freddie Mac data via the Fed. That is up from 6.60% from a week prior.

At an intraday level, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 7.13% on Wednesday, up from 6.92% the day before, per Mortgage News Daily. It notched up to 7.14% on Thursday.

The Fed ‘spooked the bond market’

The Fed’s so-called dot plot this week showed fewer signs of more rate cuts in 2025, according to Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage in New York. 
The dot plot, which indicates individual members’ expectations for rates, showed officials see their benchmark lending rate falling to 3.9% by the end of 2025, equal to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. After the latest rate cut, it is currently at 4.25% to 4.50%.
When the Fed made its first rate cut in September, it had projected four quarter-point cuts, or a full percentage-point reduction, for 2025.
“That, in conjunction with Trump’s desired policies on tariffs, immigration and tax cuts — which are all inflationary — spooked the bond market,” Cohn said.

Mortgage rates also tend to move in anticipation of what the Fed is going to do in its upcoming meetings, said Jacob Channel, a senior economist at LendingTree.
For instance, mortgage rates declined this summer and early fall, in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020.
Therefore, mortgage rates might not do “anything particularly dramatic” in the face of the Fed’s actual meeting, he said.  More

As Congress works to avoid a government shutdown, the Senate may soon consider a bill that would increase Social Security benefits for certain pensioners.
The bill could be altered if amendments are successful or it could head to a final vote unchanged.
Here’s what experts say they expect to happen next.

Richard Stephen | Istock | Getty Images

As Congress scrambles to avoid a government shutdown, the Senate is also poised to consider another bill that would increase Social Security benefits for some public workers.
But the bill, the Social Security Fairness Act, may undergo changes if some Senators’ efforts to add amendments are successful.

Per the original proposal, the Social Security Fairness Act calls for eliminating Social Security provisions known as the Windfall Elimination Provision, or WEP, and Government Pension Offset, or GPO, that have been in place for decades.
The WEP reduces Social Security benefits for individuals who receive pension or disability benefits from employment where they did not pay Social Security payroll taxes. The GPO reduces Social Security for spouses, widows and widowers who also receive their own government pension income. Together, the provisions affect an estimated 3 million individuals.
The bill has enthusiastic support from organizations representing teachers, firefighters, police and other government workers who are affected by the benefit reductions.

“You shouldn’t penalize people for income outside of a system when you’ve paid into it and earn that benefit,” said John Hatton, vice president of policy and programs at the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association. “It’s been 40 years trying to get this repealed.”
The bill has received overwhelming bipartisan support. The Social Security Fairness Act was passed by the House with a 327 majority in November.

Preliminary Senate votes this week have also shown a strong bipartisan support for moving the proposal forward. On Wednesday, the chamber voted with a 73 majority on a cloture for the motion to proceed. That was followed by a Thursday vote on a motion to proceed that also drew a 73-vote majority.
Experts say the Senate may soon hold a final vote. It could proceed in one of two ways — with amendments that alter the terms of the original bill or with a final vote without any changes.

Amendments may include raising the retirement age

The Social Security Fairness Act would cost an estimated $196 billion over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Those additional costs come as the trust funds Social Security relies on to help pay benefits already face looming depletion dates. Social Security’s trustees have projected the program’s trust fund used to pay retirement benefits may be depleted in nine years, when just 79% of benefits may be payable.
Some senators who oppose the Social Security Fairness Act have expressed concerns about the pressures the additional costs would put on the program.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, who this week voted against moving the current version of the bill forward in the Senate, said this week he plans to propose an amendment to offset those costs by gradually raising the retirement age to 70 while also adjusting for life expectancy. Social Security’s full retirement age — when beneficiaries receive 100% of the benefits they’ve earned — is currently age 67 for individuals born in 1960 or later.
“It is absurd to entertain a proposal that would make Social Security both less fair and financially weaker,” Paul said in a statement. “To undo the damage made by this legislation, my amendment to gradually raise the retirement age to reflect current life expectancies will strengthen Social Security by providing almost $400 billion in savings.”
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As of Friday morning, a total of six amendments to the bill had been introduced, according to Emerson Sprick, associate director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Some amendments call for replacing the full repeal of the WEP and GPO provisions with other changes.
One amendment from Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Joe Manchin, I-West Virginia, would instead put in place a more proportional formula to calculate benefits for affected individuals. That change, inspired by Texas Republican Rep. Jodey Arrington’s Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act, has a lot of support from policy experts and the Bipartisan Policy Center, Sprick said.
Social Security advocacy groups have pushed for larger comprehensive Social Security reform that would use tax increases to pay for making benefits more generous.
“We want to help in making this happen, but our preference was for it to be part of a much larger Social Security reform,” said Dan Adcock, director of government relations and policy at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.
To be sure, if amendments are successfully added to the bill, it would have to go back to the House.
“We’re hoping that that doesn’t come to that, because that could complicate matters, depending on the timing of what’s going on with the [continuing resolution]” to avoid a government shutdown, Adcock said.

Senate may proceed to final vote on original bill

Much of what happens next rests on Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, who could decide unilaterally not to allow amendments to be considered, according to Sprick.
Alternatively, Schumer could decide to allow for amendments in exchange for limiting the length of time spent on consideration of the bill, he said.

However, Sprick said he doubts Schumer will allow amendments at this point.
“The most likely scenario at this point is that Senator Schumer just runs out the clock, doesn’t allow consideration of any amendments, and they take a final vote either very late tonight or early tomorrow,” Sprick said.
While opponents of the bill may delay a vote, they won’t be able to stop a vote, Hatton said. Moreover, there’s reason to believe the leaders who have voted to advance the bill this week will also vote for it if and when it is put up for a final vote, he said.
“I’m still optimistic that this passes, and it’s more just a matter of when, not if,” Hatton said. More

Saving $1 million for retirement is often considered the gold standard and, for the first time, a larger share of younger retirement savers are reaching that key savings threshold.
The number of millennials with more than $1 million in their 401(k)s has jumped 400% from one year ago, according to Fidelity.
Positive market conditions helped boost account balances to new highs in 2024.

A few years ago, Wes Bellamy, 38, took stock of his investment accounts in preparation to buy a home in Charlottesville, Virginia. It was then that he noticed significant gains in his 401(k).
Although Bellamy, who is the chair of the political science department at Virginia State University, had been saving diligently for nearly a decade and making the most of his employer’s matching program, he said seeing his retirement account balance was “a pleasant surprise and a nice nest egg.”

Since then, his 401(k) balance has continued to grow. “I’m at $980,000 — I’m not at a million yet but I’m close.”

More millennials are 401(k) millionaires

Saving $1 million for retirement used to be considered the gold standard, although these days financial advisors may recommend putting away even more.
Millennial workers are still the most common generation to say they’ll need at least $1 million to retire comfortably, according to a recent report by Bankrate, and, for the first time, a larger share of younger retirement savers are reaching that key savings threshold.
The number of millennials with seven-figure balances has jumped 400% from one year ago, according to the data from Fidelity Investments prepared for CNBC.
Among this group, the number of 401(k) accounts with a balance of $1 million or more rose to about 10,000 as of Sept. 30, up from around 2,000 in the third quarter of 2023, according to Fidelity, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans. The financial services firm handles more than 49 million retirement accounts altogether.

Generally, reaching 401(k) millionaire status only comes after decades of consistent contributions, making it a harder milestone for younger workers to achieve.
This year, positive market conditions helped boost those account balances to new highs. The Nasdaq is up 29% year to date, as of Dec. 19, while the S&P 500 notched a 23% gain and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 12%.
“Even shorter-term savers have done well because of significant market gains,” said Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president of thought leadership.  
“If we continue to see positive market conditions, we could see not only the overall number of millionaires overall bump up over that threshold but also more millennials,” Shamrell said.
Whether savers benefit more from long-term savings efforts or a favorable investment environment, “the reality is, it’s a blend of both,” financial advisor Jordan Awoye, managing partner of Awoye Capital in New York, said.
Further, millennials — the oldest of whom will be 44 in 2025 — are nearing their peak earning years, he said, “which is making it more enticing to save for retirement.”
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Still, reaching the million-dollar mark “is not everything,” Awoye said.
Heading into a year of potential volatility, those balances will fluctuate, perhaps even dramatically. However, there is still plenty of time before millennial savers will need to access those funds in retirement. “You are likely not touching that money for 20 years. Even if [the market] goes up and down, stick to the script,” Awoye said.
“When you are retirement planning, you have to remember to tie it back to your North Star, which is your goal.”

How to become a 401(k) millionaire

Certified financial planner Chelsea Ransom-Cooper, chief financial planning officer of Zenith Wealth Partners in New Jersey, works with mostly millennial clients. She says she often encourages them to contribute more than what’s necessary to get the full employer match — even up to the maximum annual contribution limits for a 401(k) or IRA.
In 2023, only 14% of employees deferred the maximum annual amount into 401(k) plans, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report. But that’s a missed opportunity, Ransom-Cooper said.
In 2025, employees can defer $23,500 into workplace plans, up from $23,000 in 2024. (The IRA contribution limit is $7,000 for 2025, unchanged from 2024.)
At the same time, employer contributions are climbing. Together, the average 401(k) savings rate, including employee deferrals and company contributions, rose to 12.7% in 2023, up from 12.1% the year before, according to the Plan Sponsor Council of America’s annual survey of 401(k) plans.
That’s made a big difference, Ransom-Cooper said. “There’s more money that can go into these accounts outside of the employee contribution, that can be really helpful to push these accounts higher and help people reach their retirement goals.”

While there is always the chance that a market downturn will take a toll on these balances in the year to come, the markets are up more than they are down, Ransom-Cooper said. “They can weather those tougher days in the shorter term.”
“Staying the course and keeping that longer term vision is really helpful,” she said.
Bellamy says his goal is to retire in another 20 years, before reaching 60. “Then, I’ll have another 15, 20 years to live my life freely as I want to.”
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