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    Economists have ‘really had it wrong’ about recession, market strategist says

    David Zervos, Jefferies’ chief market strategist, and Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital Partners, weigh in on the likelihood of more rate cuts to come at CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.
    If the first Trump administration is a guide, inflation is likely to be low. “Take the tape, rewind it, put it back to 2019 and let’s go from there,” Zervos said.

    David Zervos, Jefferies
    Scott Mlyn | CNBC

    The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter point at the conclusion of its two-day meeting next week.
    “Two years ago … 3 out of 4 economists were saying we’re going into a recession,” David Zervos, chief market strategist for Jefferies LLC, said during CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on Tuesday. “They’ve really had it wrong.”

    The economy is still growing and inflation has come down, he said.
    The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation stood at 2.3% in October, or 2.8% when excluding food and energy prices, according to the latest reading. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter is on track to post a 3.3% annualized growth rate for gross domestic product, the Atlanta Fed found.
    “I think the market is spending way too much time focused on the inflationary consequences of either immigration or trade policies,” Zervos said.

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    Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell praised the U.S. economy and said it provided cushion for policymakers to move slowly as they recalibrate policy.
    By most indicators, 2025 is going to continue in a positive direction, Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital Partners, said during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit.

    “Economic growth is going to be healthy next year,” Doran said. “The prognosis is good.”

    Meanwhile, there is still the issue of President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal policy when he begins his second term.
    On one hand, “we’ve got a lot of deregulation coming,” Zervos said, which he called a “huge disinflationary tailwind.”  
    “Take the tape, rewind it, put it back to 2019 and let’s go from there,” Zervos said.
    In part because of such policies, during the last Trump administration “we saw very little inflation,” he said. “We never really bounced out of that 2% range … so I am really optimistic on the inflation side.”
    However, questions remain on Trump’s plans to issue punitive tariffs and whether that could stoke inflation once again. In November, Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said in a note that the proposed tariffs would boost consumer prices by nearly 1%.
    “It’s still a big wildcard that we have to see,” Doran said. “It would be inflationary ultimately, but it would hurt the lowest income consumer, who is already hurting.”
    If inflation does creep up as a result, that may delay more rate cuts after December’s meeting, she added. Other experts also expect the Fed to slow down its pace of rate cuts in 2025. More

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    ‘Friendlier climate toward new technology’ expected under Trump, venture capitalist says. What that means for AI, crypto

    Continued interest rate cuts and more friendly regulation are contributing to a positive outlook heading into 2025, venture capitalist Bradley Tusk said Tuesday at CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.
    The friendlier environment should help new technologies, he said, with two areas — generative AI and cryptocurrency — poised for new developments in the new year.

    An exterior view of the New York Stock Exchange on September 18, 2024 in New York City. 
    Stephanie Keith | Getty Images

    As the calendar turns to a New Year and a new presidential administration, many investors are wondering where they can earn above-average returns.
    The current outlook is positive, with continued interest rate cuts and incoming regulators in President-elect Donald Trump’s administration who are expected to be more friendly to markets, business and technology, venture capitalist Bradley Tusk, co-founder and managing partner of Tusk Venture Partners, said Tuesday at CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.

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    “We’ll see a friendlier climate toward new technology in fintech, in health-care tech, in energy,” Tusk said.
    Two areas — generative AI and cryptocurrency — may be poised for new developments next year, he said.

    AI still a world of ‘unfulfilled potential’

    Amid the stock runup of 2024, many investment professionals have been bullish on companies that have adopted generative artificial intelligence.
    But 2025 could mark the start of a turning point, Tusk said.
    “AI is still a world right now of unfulfilled potential,” he said.

    Companies that are heavily invested in this area will likely keep investing. Despite the exciting talk of the technology’s use for everything from creating new drugs to teaching children or discovering minerals, it still has to show the economics work, too, Tusk said.
    “At some point it has to go from a cool search engine and some really exciting potential ideas to actual revenue or actual saving,” Tusk said.
    When it comes to regulation of generative AI, “we really could use some real leadership on the federal level,” Tusk said.

    Crypto may be ‘traded more freely’

    Current regulators — specifically Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler — have not looked favorably on cryptocurrencies and therefore not provided meaningful guidance, Tusk said.
    The new administration may usher in a different tone toward cryptocurrencies, he said.
    “I do think that whoever we’re going to see at the SEC, CFTC [Commodity Futures Trading Commission], Treasury, all the various agencies are going to be a lot friendlier to crypto and just a lot more reasonable,” Tusk said.

    Congress may also help, he said. In May, the House of Representatives passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, also known as FIT21. Its goal is to help digital asset innovation to grow with consumer protection and regulatory certainty.
    The bill has a “pretty good chance of passing the Senate now,” Tusk said, especially with 53 Republican senators.
    “I think that will further allow for crypto to be traded more freely and for more innovation in this space,” Tusk said of the prospective legislation. More

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    This is the best time of year to buy a used car — wait for Memorial Day, and you’ll miss it

    New Year’s Eve through New Year’s Day is the best time of year to buy a used car, because deals are up 47.9%, according to a new analysis by iSeeCars.
    “It’s just easier for car dealers to sell in warmer months and harder to sell in colder months,” said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.

    Ljubaphoto | E+ | Getty Images

    If you’re in the market for a used car, the best time of the year to buy one is fast approaching.
    New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day are the best days of the year to buy a used car, because there are 47.9% more deals than average, according to a new analysis by iSeeCars, a search engine for used cars. To determine the best and worst times of the year to buy a used car, the site examined 39 million used car sales from 2023 and 2024.

    Those dates won out because “you have two forces coming together,” said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.
    Not only are dealers trying to meet their sales goals by the end of the year, but they are also trying to boost transactions as the winter season kicks in. 
    “It’s just easier for car dealers to sell in warmer months and harder to sell in colder months,” Brauer said.
    Dealership foot traffic declines when temperatures drop, he said. “They have to counter that by offering better deals.” 
    To that point, the months with the most deals available for used cars are January, December, February, November and March, iSeeCars found.

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    Finding an affordable used car became a challenge in recent years after demand spiked during the pandemic. 
    While prices are up 31.4% from $20,683 in the third quarter of 2019, according to Edmunds data, the typical asking price is normalizing as more sellers tack on incentives. 
    The growing inventory and the proliferation of incentives among new cars is “trickling down” to the used vehicle market, said Ivan Drury, director of Insights at Edmunds.
    In the third quarter of 2024, used vehicle prices dropped to an average $27,177, down 6.2% from $28,960 a year prior, the car shopping site found.
    Here’s what you need to know if you’re in the market for a used car, according to experts. 

    The best and worst times to buy a used car

    Both dealers and car companies are trying to hit sales goals toward the end of December, said Brauer. 
    In order to meet those target figures, sellers will “put out extra good deals right at the end of the year on New Year’s Eve,” he said.
    But if you can’t fit in a car purchase during the next three weeks, among other year-end tasks and holiday celebrations, mark this date on your calendar: Martin Luther King Jr. Day. This holiday, which falls on Jan. 20 in 2025, is the second-best time of year to buy a used car, with 43.3% more deals than usual, according to iSeeCars. 

    Market conditions begin to favor car sellers as the temperature outside heats up — so much so that there are fewer deals available even on key annual holidays.
    Mother’s Day sees 27.4% fewer deals than average, followed by Memorial Day at 28%; Juneteenth, 30%, and Fourth of July, 31.1%, per iSeeCars. Father’s Day is the worst day to buy a used car, with 33.1% fewer deals than average.

    ‘Now there are deals out there’

    Unlike a year ago, “now there are deals out there” for used cars, from low interest rate offers on financing to really low sticker prices, said Brauer. 
    If you are in the market for a used car, there are three things you need to cross off your to-do list before making a purchase, experts say.
    1. Research for sales, discounts and offers
    While there are deals out there, they are not across the board, said Drury.
    “When it comes to looking for deals, it’s going to vary wildly between make, model and the segment,” he said. 
    Shop around at different car sellers and dealers to get a better sense of prices for vehicles in your area. That research can help you negotiate in the transaction, especially at a time when the seller is focused on meeting year-end sales goals.
    “You want to make them have to work for your business by potentially beating other dealers,” Brauer said.
    2. Ask for the car’s VIN and request an inspection
    The vehicle identification number, or VIN, will tell you the car’s history, such as how many owners the vehicle has had over time, its maintenance record and whether it’s been in accidents or had flood damage. 

    “You should always get the vehicle history report on a car before you ever buy one,” said Brauer.
    Additionally, ask for a pre-purchase inspection, or PPI, from an independent mechanic, he said.
    “If the seller won’t let you, that should be pretty telling right there,” he said.
    3. Seek financing options
    Try to get preapproved for different car loans and financing options from your bank and other lending institutions before visiting dealerships, experts say. This will help you get a better sense of what terms you qualify for. 
    Doing so will put you in a position where a dealer may be incentivized to either match the offer or give you a better deal. If not, you can go with the financing from your bank or another lender. More

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    That Roth IRA conversion comes with a tax bill — here’s how to pay for it

    FA Playbook

    If you’re eyeing a year-end Roth individual retirement account conversion, you’ll need to plan for the upfront tax bill.
    When you complete a Roth conversion, you’ll owe regular income taxes on the converted balance, based on your current-year taxable income. 
    Typically, it’s better to cover taxes with funds outside the conversion, experts say.

    Srdjanpav | E+ | Getty Images

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    When a Roth conversion is completed, you’ll owe regular income taxes on the converted balance, based on your current-year taxable income. 
    Ideally, you’re “managing the tax bracket,” said CFP Jim Guarino, managing director at Baker Newman Noyes in Woburn, Massachusetts. He is also a certified public accountant. 
    That could involve partial conversions by incurring only enough income to stay within a specific tier. For 2024, there’s a small increase from 10% to 12% or 22% to 24%, but a larger jump from 24% to 32%, Guarino explained.

    Ideally, you will want a conversion that keeps you comfortably within a tax bracket, meaning you can afford the upfront bill, Guarino said.

    Of course, Roth conversion strategies depend on clients’ long-term goals, including estate planning, experts say. 

    How to pay for taxes on your Roth conversion

    Typically, it’s better to cover the upfront taxes with other assets, rather than using part of the converted balance to cover the bill, Berkemeyer said.
    The more funds you get into the Roth, the higher your starting balance for future compound growth to “get the maximum benefit out of the conversion,” he said.
    Cash from a savings account is one of the best options to pay for taxes, Berkemeyer said. However, you can also weigh selling assets from a brokerage account.

    Something to consider if you’re selling brokerage assets to pay Roth conversion taxes: If it’s a lower-income year, you could qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains bracket, assuming you’ve owned the investments for more than one year, he said.
    For 2024, you may qualify for the 0% capital gains rate with a taxable income of up to $47,025 if you’re a single filer or up to $94,050 for married couples filing jointly.
    However, you’d need to run a projection since the Roth conversion adds to your taxable income. More

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    The Fed slashed interest rates, but some credit card APRs aren’t going down. Here’s why

    Although the Federal Reserve started slashing interest rates in September, the average credit card interest rate has barely budged.
    For some retail credit cards, interest rates have only gone up. 
    In part, card issuers are trying to get ahead of a new federal rule, which caps credit card late fees.

    Close-up of unrecognizable black woman opening mail containing new credit card
    Grace Cary | Moment | Getty Images

    Why some APRs are still rising

    Synchrony and Bread Financial, which both issue store-branded credit cards, have said that the moves were necessary following a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rule limiting what the industry can charge in late fees.
    “One of the unintended consequences of trying to impose limits on fees is that it often leads to higher rates,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
    Card issuers are mitigating their exposure against borrowers who may fall behind on payments or default, he said.
    “Reducing the late fee doesn’t reduce the likelihood of a late payment so issuers are going to compensate for that risk in another fashion.” McBride said.

    “It doesn’t surprise me that card issuers would try and get out in front of these changes,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst. The CFPB’s new rule takes a bite out of what has been a very profitable business.
    Further, “stores want to be able to offer that card to anyone who walks up to the checkout counter and there is a fair amount of risk in that,” Schulz said.

    How to avoid paying sky-high interest

    Only consumers who carry a balance from month to month feel the pain of high APRs. And higher APRs only kick in for new loans, not old debts, as in the case of new applicants for store cards or new purchases.
    “Rates are not going up on an existing balance,” McBride said.
    APR changes only affect the whole balance if the change is due to a change in the underlying index, such as an increase or decrease in the Fed’s benchmark, he explained.
    “Otherwise, if the issuer wants to raise the rate — which would mean increasing the margin over prime rate — they can only do so on an existing balance if the cardholder is 60 days delinquent,” McBride said.
    However, credit card delinquency rates are already “elevated,” with 8.8% of balances transitioning to delinquency over the last year, and the share of borrowers with revolving balances rising as more people rack up new debt over the holidays.
    Currently, Americans owe a record $1.17 trillion on their cards, 8.1% higher than a year ago, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    McBride advises consumers against signing up for a store credit card with a high rate during the peak shopping season.
    “Store cards are so popular this time of year,” he said. “Having that same-day discount dangled in front of you is tempting, but you lose the benefit of the discount really fast if you start carrying a balance.”
    As a general rule, “the best way to avoid these sky-high rates is to pay your bill in full every month — that is easier said than done, but should always be the goal,” Schulz said.
    Cardholders who pay their balances in full and on time and keep their utilization rate — or the ratio of debt to total credit — below 30% of their available credit, can also benefit from credit card rewards and a higher credit score. That paves the way to lower-cost loans and better terms going forward.
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    Treasury Department may fine small businesses up to $10,000 if they don’t file this new report

    The Corporate Transparency Act requires many businesses to report “beneficial ownership information” by Jan. 1, 2025, in an effort to curb crime through shell companies.
    About 32.6 million businesses are subject to the new BOI reporting, according to federal estimates.
    Individuals that “willfully” violate the requirement may be subject to fines of $10,000 or more and possible jail time.
    A Texas court temporarily halted enforcement, for now.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen following a tour of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) in Vienna, Virginia, on Jan. 8, 2024.
    Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    Small businesses and their owners could face penalties of $10,000 or more if they don’t comply with a new U.S. Treasury Department reporting requirement by year’s end — and evidence suggests many haven’t yet complied.
    The Corporate Transparency Act, passed in 2021, created the requirement. The law aims to curb illicit finance by asking many businesses operating in the U.S. to report beneficial ownership information to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, also known as FinCEN.

    Many businesses have a Jan. 1, 2025 deadline to submit an initial BOI report.
    This applies to about 32.6 million businesses, including certain corporations, limited liability companies and others, according to federal estimates.
    The Treasury Department did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the number of BOI reports that had been filed to date.

    The data helps identify the people who directly or indirectly own or control a company, making it “harder for bad actors to hide or benefit from their ill-gotten gains through shell companies or other opaque ownership structures,” according to FinCEN.
    “Corporate anonymity enables money laundering, drug trafficking, terrorism and corruption,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a January announcement of the BOI portal launch.

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    Here’s the kicker: Businesses and owners that don’t file may face civil penalties of up to $591 a day, for each day their violation continues, according to FinCEN. (The sum is adjusted for inflation.) Additionally, they can face up to $10,000 in criminal fines and up to two years in prison.
    “To a small business, suddenly you’re staring at a fine that could sink your business,” said Charlie Fitzgerald III, a certified financial planner based in Orlando, Florida, and a founding member of Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo.
    The federal government had received about 9.5 million filings as of Dec. 1, according to statistics FinCEN provided to the office of Rep. French Hill, R-Arkansas, who has called for the repeal the Corporate Transparency Act. Hill’s office shared the data with CNBC.
    That figure is about 30% of the estimated total.
    FinCEN was receiving a volume of about 1 million new reports per week as of early December, Hill’s office said.

    Many businesses may not be aware

    Nitat Termmee | Moment | Getty Images

    A “beneficial owner” is a person who owns at least 25% of a company’s ownership interests or has “substantial control” of the entity.
    Businesses must report information about their beneficial owners, like name, birth date, address and information from an ID such as a driver’s license or passport, in addition to other data.
    Companies that existed prior to 2024 must report by Jan. 1, 2025. Those created in 2024 have 90 calendar days to file from their effective date of formation or registration; those created in 2025 or later have 30 days.

    Corporate anonymity enables money laundering, drug trafficking, terrorism, and corruption.

    Janet Yellen
    U.S. Treasury Secretary

    There are multiple exceptions to the requirement: For example, those with more than $5 million in gross sales and more than 20 full-time employees may not need to file a report.
    Many exempt businesses — like large companies, banks, credit unions, tax-exempt entities and public utilities — already furnish similar data.
    Brian Nelson, under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence for the Treasury Department, said in an interview at the Hudson Institute earlier this year that the agency was “on a full court press” to spread awareness about the BOI registry, which opened Jan. 1, 2024.

    But it seems many business owners either aren’t complying with or aware of the requirement, despite outreach efforts.
    The scope of national compliance is “bleak,” the S-Corporation Association of America, a business trade group, said in early October.
    The “vast majority” of businesses hadn’t yet filed a report, “meaning millions of small business owners and their employees will become de facto felons come that start of 2025,” it said.

    Enforcement is up in the air

    Bevan Goldswain | E+ | Getty Images

    However, the situation isn’t quite that grim, others said.
    For one, a federal court in Texas on Dec. 3 temporarily blocked the Treasury Department from enforcing the BOI reporting rules, meaning the agency can’t impose penalties while the court conducts a more thorough review of the rule’s constitutionality.
    “Businesses should still be filing their information,” said Erica Hanichak, government affairs director at the Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency Coalition. “The deadline itself hasn’t changed. It just changes enforcement of the law.”

    The government is expected to appeal, and enforcement “could resume” if the injunction is reversed, wrote attorneys at the law firm Fredrikson.
    Additionally, Treasury said it would only impose penalties on a person (or business) who “willfully violates” BOI reporting.
    The agency isn’t out for “gotcha enforcement,” Hanichak said.
    “FinCEN understands this is a new requirement,” it said in an FAQ. “If you correct a mistake or omission within 90 days of the deadline for the original report, you may avoid being penalized. However, you could face civil and criminal penalties if you disregard your beneficial ownership information reporting obligations.” More

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    5 housing market predictions for 2025, according to economists

    In October, the median sales price for a single-family home in the U.S. was $437,300, up from $426,800 a month prior, according to the latest data by the U.S. Census. 
    Here are five key factors to watch out for in the housing market in 2025, according to experts. 

    Miniseries | E+ | Getty Images

    Housing is not cheap — whether you’re buying or renting. 
    In October, the median sales price for a single-family home in the U.S. was $437,300, up from $426,800 a month prior, according to the latest data by the U.S. Census. 

    Meanwhile, the median rent price in the U.S. was $1,619 in October, roughly flat or up 0.2% from a year ago and down 0.6% from a month prior, according to Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm.
    While it can be difficult to exactly pinpoint how the housing market is going to play out in 2025, several economists lay out predictions of what’s likely to happen next year in a new report by Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm.
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    “If the housing market were going to crash, it would have already crashed by now,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “The housing market has been so resilient to interest rates going up as high as they have.”
    Here are five housing market predictions for 2025, according to Fairweather and other economists. 

    Home price growth will return to pre-pandemic levels

    The median asking price for a home in the U.S. will likely rise 4% over the course of 2025, a pace similar to that of the second half of this year, according to Redfin.
    The 4% annual pace is a “normalization” compared to the accelerated growth last seen in 2020, said Fairweather. 
    Earlier in 2024, the rate at which home prices grew slowed down to pre-pandemic levels. In other words, while prices were still rising, the speed of price growth was not as fast as it was in previous years. 

    Despite predictions of growth slowing, there may still be some volatility in prices.
    In fact, home price appreciation might stay flat, or less than 1%, going into the 2025 spring home buying season, said Selma Hepp, economist at CoreLogic.
    But the possibility of President-elect Donald Trump enacting some of his economic policies could drive home prices much higher, said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree. 
    “We kind of have some mixed signals right now in terms of what may or may not happen to home prices,” he said. 
    General tariffs on foreign goods and materials as well as mass deportations could result in higher construction costs and slower home-building activity. If fewer homes are built in a supply-constrained market, prices might grow much higher, said Channel.

    Flattening rents, with more room to negotiate

    At a national level, the median asking rent price in the U.S. will likely stay flat over the course of a year in 2025, as new rental inventory becomes available, according to Redfin.
    “If rents are flat, and people’s wages continue to grow, that means people have more money to spend,” Redfin’s Fairweather said, as well as increase their savings.
    More than 21 million renter households are “cost-burdened,” meaning they spent more than 30% of their income on housing costs, according to 2023 U.S. Census data.
    A stable rental market will also give renters more strength to negotiate with landlords. In some areas, property managers are already offering concessions like one month rent free, a free parking space or waiving fees, experts say.

    However, “it’s December,” Channel said. “Rent prices typically decline in the colder months of the year,” as fewer people are apartment hunting in the late fall and winter seasons. 
    If would-be buyers continue to be priced out of the for-sale market next year through high home prices and mortgage rates, competition in the rental market may ensue, he said.
    Also keep in mind that the typical rent price you see will depend on what’s going on in your local market, Hepp explained.
    For instance: Austin, Texas was the “epicenter of multi-family construction,” she said, meaning a lot of new supply was added into the city’s rental market, bringing rental costs down. The metro area’s rent prices fell by 2.9% from a year ago, CoreLogic found.
    In contrast, supply-constrained metropolitan areas like Seattle, Washington, D.C., and New York City, are experiencing high rent growth of 5% annually. 

    A ‘bumpy’ and ‘volatile’ year for mortgage rates

    Redfin forecasts mortgage rates will average 6.8% in 2025, and hover around the low-6% range if the economy continues to slow.
    Yet experts expect 2025 will be a “bumpy” and “volatile” year for mortgage rates.
    Borrowing costs for home loans could spike if policies like tax cuts and tariffs are enacted, putting upward pressure on inflation. 
    “We’re sort of in uncharted territory. It’s really tough to say exactly what’s going to happen,” said LendingTree’s Channel. 
    Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again in November as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win. Since then, mortgage rates have somewhat stabilized — for now.
    “Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, recently told CNBC.

    More home sales than in 2024

    Pent-up demand from buyers and sellers on the sidelines may drive home transactions next year. 
    “People have waited long enough,” Fairweather said. 
    About 4 million homes are expected to be sold by the end of 2025, an annual increase between 2% and 9% from 2024, according to Redfin. 
    The market is piling on with “people who need to move on with their lives,” like buyers who are getting new jobs and need homes suitable for life changes, and sellers who have delayed moving plans, Fairweather said. 

    While more buyers are expected to hit the market next year, the level of competition may not be as aggressive as in recent years, when bidding wars were the norm.
    Other affordability factors may come into play, like rising insurance costs and property taxes, in turn slowing down competition, said CoreLogic’s Hepp. 
    “We’ll definitely see more buyers out there,” she said. “But I don’t see the competition heating up to the levels that it has over the last few years.” 

    Climate risks will bake into homes prices

    The risk of extreme weather and natural disasters may anchor down home prices or slow down price growth in areas like coastal Florida, California and parts of Texas, which are at high risk of hurricanes, wildfires or other disasters, Redfin expects.
    If palatable price tags have you eyeing homes in a high-risk market, be aware of potential complications.
    For instance, home insurance policies in some of these markets are harder to come by, and tend to carry high price tags. The financial impact of natural disasters may also be felt in rising home maintenance and repair costs, said Redfin’s Fairweather.

    What’s more challenging, “every part of the country is vulnerable” because the weather patterns are changing, she said. “Lately, there have been these atmospheric rivers in California that have caused days of heavy flooding, and those homes aren’t built for that.”
    While there’s a lot of focus on Florida for hurricane risks, the state is more prepared for this natural disaster, unlike areas like Asheville, North Carolina, a mountainous city battered by the hurricane Milton earlier this year. 
    “We will probably see insurance increase pretty broadly because that mismatch between what homes were built for and the climate that they are going to be facing in the coming years,” she said. More

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    Top Wall Street analysts tout these energy stocks for attractive dividends

    A Chevron gas station in Richmond, California, US, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024. 
    David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Adding dividend-paying stocks to a portfolio helps enhance total return while ensuring income and diversification. Moreover, the appeal of dividend stocks increases as interest rates decline, as is currently the case.
    Following the recommendations of top Wall Street analysts can help investors pick attractive dividend stocks, given that these experts conduct an in-depth analysis of a company’s financials to assess its ability to pay — and increase — dividends.

    Here are three dividend-paying stocks, highlighted by Wall Street’s top pros as tracked by TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.
    Chevron
    We start this week with oil and gas producer Chevron (CVX). The company reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2024. It returned $7.7 billion to shareholders in the third quarter, including $4.7 billion in share buybacks and $2.9 billion in dividends. At a quarterly dividend of $1.63 per share (or an annualized $6.52), CVX offers a dividend yield of 4.1%.
    Recently, Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta reiterated a buy rating on CVX and slightly raised the price target to $170 from $167 to reflect his updated earnings estimates. The analyst continues to have a constructive view on Chevron, thanks to “expectations for volume and [free cash flow] inflection driven by Tengiz [in Kazakhstan], where the company continues to demonstrate strong execution progress.”
    Mehta added that his optimism is also driven by Chevron’s attractive capital returns profile that includes dividends and buybacks, with expectations of a yield of around 10% in both 2025 and 2026. He also highlighted the company’s differentiated capital allocation, which supports consistent shareholder returns despite a volatile macroeconomic backdrop.
    Among other positives, Mehta also noted favorable updates on Chevron’s Gulf of Mexico projects, where the company intends to increase production to 300 Mb/d (million barrels per day) by 2026. He is also impressed by the company’s cost reduction efforts, which aim to generate as much as $3 billion of structural cost savings by the end of 2026.

    Mehta ranks No. 391 among more than 9,200 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 62% of the time, delivering an average return of 11%. See Chevron Stock Buybacks on TipRanks.

    Energy Transfer                 

    This week’s second dividend pick is Energy Transfer (ET), a midstream energy company that is structured as a limited partnership. In November, the company made a quarterly cash distribution of $0.3225 per common unit for the third quarter, a 3.2% year-over-year rise. Based on an annualized distribution of $1.29 per common unit, ET pays a yield of 6.8%.
    Recently, JPMorgan analyst Jeremy Tonet reaffirmed a buy rating on ET and raised his 12-month price target to $23 from $20. The analyst noted the company’s third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $3.96 billion exceeded JPMorgan’s estimate of $3.912 billion and the Street’s consensus of $3.881 billion.
    While Energy Transfer reiterated its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $15.3 billion to $15.5 billion, Tonet thinks that the company is positioned to surpass the high end of that guidance, as the full impact of its optimization efforts isn’t reflected in the outlook.
    Tonet further highlighted that the integration of the WTG Midstream acquisition is on track and Energy Transfer has approved several projects to improve reliability, reduce losses and enhance system efficiencies.
    Overall, Tonet thinks that ET is trading at a discounted price, offering a lucrative entry point for investors. “We see [natural gas liquids] logistics, particularly [U.S. Gulf Coast] and Marcus Hook exports, as key growth engines for ET, particularly given global LPG demand growth,” said Tonet.
    Tonet ranks No. 420 among more than 9,200 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 61% of the time, delivering an average return of 10.5%. See Energy Transfer Stock Charts on TipRanks.

    Enterprise Products Partners

    Tonet is also bullish on Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), a partnership that offers midstream energy services. The company’s distribution of $0.525 per unit for the third quarter reflects a 5% annual increase. EPD’s annual distribution of $2.10 per common unit is equivalent to 6.4% yield.
    The JPMorgan analyst said EPD’s Q3 performance gained from three natural gas processing plants that started commercial operations over the past year. The third quarter also benefited from wide natural gas spreads between Waha and other market hubs.
    At its Investor Day, EPD emphasized that one of its key operating objectives for 2024 was to enhance the reliability and utilization rates of its two propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. Tonet said EPD expects its PDH enhancements to deliver an incremental $200 million in cash flows.
    Capital allocation is favorable, Tonet said, noting that EPD repurchased $76 million in stock in the third quarter, up from $40 million in the second quarter. Enterprise plans to continue making buybacks in an annual range of $200 to $300 million over the remainder of 2024 and 2025, he said.
    Tonet continues to be bullish on EPD stock, saying it “consistently delivered strong results throughout the various cycles, weathering downdrafts yet still participating during upward cycles.”
    Tonet’s optimism is also based on EPD having the largest and most integrated natural gas liquids (NGL) footprint in North America, supporting superior operating leverage. He also believes that EPD’s financial flexibility gives it an edge over its peers.
    Given all the positives, Tonet reiterated a buy rating on EPD stock and increased his price target to $37 from $34. See EPD Ownership Structure on TipRanks. More