Markus Andrews

Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are placed on a PC motherboard in this illustration taken June 16, 2023. 
Dado Ruvic | Reuters

Crypto investors are waiting for the Securities and Exchange Commission to approve a raft of spot bitcoin applications, likely Wednesday
With a spot bitcoin ETF now looking very real, attention is turning to the details of how it will trade, how much it will cost, how much of the runup in bitcoin is due to demand that has been pulled forward, and premium or discount valuations.
Fees are competitive and will get more so

With nearly a dozen ETFs competing for attention, bitcoin buyers will be very price sensitive, and issuers are already engaged in a modest price war. For example, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, which is partnering with 21Shares to launch a bitcoin ETF, initially announced a fee of 0.8% but on Monday announced no fee for the first six months.
Other issuers are also steeply discounting prices, with several (Bitwise, ARK, Invesco) offering 0% fee for the first six months, while Grayscale is charging 1.5%.
Spot bitcoin ETF feesBitwise (GBTC) 0.0% (after first six months: 0.24%)ARK Invest/21Shares (ARKB): 0.0% (after first six months: 0.25%)Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) 0.0% (after first six months: 0.59%)iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 0.20% (after first 12 months: 0.30%)VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) 0.25%Franklin Templeton Digital Holdings Trust 0.29%Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC) 0.39%WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust (BTCW) 0.50%Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BTF) 0.80%Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) 1.50%
Invesco’s Galaxy Bitcoin ETF has set its expense ratio at 0.0% for the initial six months and the first $5 billion in assets, and goes to 0.59% after.
How will a spot bitcoin trade relative to bitcoin and bitcoin futures?
One of the main questions is how well a spot bitcoin ETF will track bitcoin and bitcoin futures.

Simeon Hyman, ProShares’ global investment strategist who manages the largest bitcoin futures ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) that launched in October 2021, noted that bitcoin futures ETFs have tracked bitcoin “fairly well.” But he also told me, “The spot market for bitcoin is still not mature. The futures market is regulated and mature. We’ll have to wait and see how well they track against each other.”
Another issue is whether the bitcoin ETFs will trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value. In this case, the NAV is the value of the bitcoin owned by the ETF. Some are concerned that the creation and redemption process that was agreed upon to create spot bitcoin ETFs could result in a bitcoin ETF trading at a premium to its NAV.

“Some of these ETFs will trade at a premium, and then as investors start to understand the nuances, that’s when we will filter out the nuances and the small points,” Reggie Brown, GTS co-Global Head of ETF Trading & Sales, told Bloomberg.
Most market participants believe that any premiums will be small.
Som Seif runs the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, the first bitcoin ETF to launch in Canada in 2021.
“Our product trades extremely efficiently, with very tight spreads,” Seif told me. “You should see no impact on trading efficiency. There will be a breadth of players, and the underlying asset is very liquid.”
Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, one of the applicants for a bitcoin ETF, agreed: “The underlying market is very liquid,” he told me. “We have been in the market buying and selling bitcoin for years. The main issue are, who gets the liquidity, and who wins on expenses.”
How much money will these ETFs attract?
It’s not clear how much new money will be dragged in once a spot bitcoin ETF trades.
However, two ETF-related events have helped propel interest in bitcoin in the last two years:
1) The beginning in trading of bitcoin futures ETFs (BITO), starting in October 2021, which helped move bitcoin from almost $10,000 in October of that year to over $40,000 by January 2022. The largest bitcoin futures ETF, ProShares bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), recently passed $2 billion in assets under management, according to ProShares.
2) Blackrock’s application for a bitcoin ETF on June 16, 2023, helped moved bitcoin from roughly $25,000 to $30,000 in a matter of days.
Brown estimated that the combined ETFs could have fairly significant inflows. “Thirty days out, it could be $2 billion-$3 billion,” he told Bloomberg, estimating it could attract $10-$20 billion in new assets this year.
Still, considering the current market capitalization of bitcoin is near $900 billion, that is not huge inflows. The Canadian spot bitcoin ETF, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, has about $400 million in assets after over two years.
What’s next?
The next issue, Hougan says, is whether the big institutions and financial advisors will allow their investors to trade bitcoin on their platforms.
“Just because a bitcoin ETF has been launched, it doesn’t mean JP Morgan will get in,” Hougan said.
After that, Hougan said the next big events will be the bitcoin halving in April, followed by any interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
“Higher interest rates are bad for non-yielding assets like bitcoin or gold,” he told me. “If you get 5% on cash, that’s tough competition.” More

Roughly a month after Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million Los Angeles Dodgers contract, California’s controller is asking Congress for restrictions on deferred income.
However, with split control of Congress, there’s unlikely to be a near-term change to the federal tax law, experts say.

Japanese baseball player Shohei Ohtani attends a press conference on his presentation after signing a 10-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodgers Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on Dec. 14, 2023.
Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

Roughly a month after Shohei Ohtani signed a $700 million contract with Major League Baseball’s Los Angeles Dodgers, California’s controller is calling for “immediate and decisive action” from Congress to limit deferred income for higher earners.
The Japanese pitcher’s record-breaking deal defers $680 million for 10 years and has raised questions about future state taxability — especially if Ohtani eventually leaves California. For 2024, California’s top tax rate is 14.4%, which includes a 1.1% payroll levy.

“The current tax system allows for unlimited deferrals for those fortunate enough to be in the highest tax brackets, creating a significant imbalance in the tax structure,” California State Controller Malia Cohen said in a statement Monday referencing Ohtani’s contract. 
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“The absence of reasonable caps on deferral for the wealthiest individuals exacerbates income inequality and hinders the fair distribution of taxes,” she said. “I would urge Congress to take immediate and decisive action to rectify this imbalance.”
Deferring $68 million annually for 10 years could save Ohtani $98 million over the life of his contract, according to an estimate from the California Center for Jobs and the Economy. However, the estimate uses several assumptions, and the exact terms of Ohtani’s contract are unknown. 

While California’s controller calls for restrictions on deferred income, that may not be the source of the problem, according to Steve Rosenthal, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

“What’s really going on here is a federal law that was enacted in 1995 by a Republican Congress to prevent states from taxing pension income,” he said. “The problem with Ohtani is he can return to Japan and sidestep California taxes.”
The provision prevents states from taxing nonresident “retirement income,” which can include deferred compensation.

Deferred income hasn’t been a priority for Congress

While some Democrats have called for higher taxes on the wealthy, lawmakers have focused on areas such as so-called unrealized gains, or investment growth, rather than deferred income, said William McBride, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation.  
“Deferred income runs throughout the tax code,” such as income from your 401(k) or executive compensation, he said.
If Congress enacted restrictions on deferred income, it would “put the state in a worse position in terms of its ability to collect revenue from these high earners and star athletes because they wouldn’t be there,” McBride said.

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The inflation rate has being declining gradually from its pandemic-era peak in June 2022.
Since the rate remains positive, the U.S. is experiencing disinflation. Prices are rising, but at a slower pace.
The U.S. has rarely experienced deflation, which is when the inflation rate is negative. Here, prices decline outright. Broad and sustained deflation is typically a bad outcome, economists say.

A customer visits a supermarket in San Mateo, California, on Dec. 12, 2023.
Li Jianguo | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

Inflation is retreating from its pandemic-era highs.
Economic jargon yields two similar terms — “deflation” and “disinflation” — that might describe this pullback.

So, which is the U.S. experiencing? In short: disinflation.

What is disinflation?

In an economy experiencing disinflation, prices are still rising. However, they’re growing at a slower pace than they had been.
The inflation rate is still positive but at a lower level.

The consumer price index, a key inflation measure that tracks average prices across a broad basket of consumer goods and services, increased 3.1% in November 2023 relative to a year earlier. That’s a significant decrease from the pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
“Disinflation is what we want to see right now,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. “It’s the more ideal outcome” relative to deflation, she said.

What is deflation?

Deflation, by contrast, is when average prices are falling outright. The inflation rate flips negative.
Some consumer categories, such as used vehicles and gasoline, have deflated over the past year, according to CPI data. Their prices have declined about 4% and 9%, respectively.
However, broad, sustained deflation in the U.S. would generally be a bad outcome, economists said.
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For one, if consumers expect prices to be cheaper in the future, they may hold off on buying goods and services. Reduced consumer demand may crimp economic growth and further weaken prices, creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral.
Deflation can also cause problems for people who borrow money, economists said. The asset they own — a car or a house, say — may be falling in value while debt payments stay the same. If a borrower’s income declines, they have less money to pay down debt.

The U.S. has rarely experienced deflation

The U.S. has experienced few deflationary episodes since the Great Depression, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.  
“It’s something you tend to talk more about in textbooks than in practice,” Hunter said.
Historically, broad deflation has occurred during periods of “extreme economic weakness,” he said.
For example, the U.S. annual inflation rate flipped negative from March 2009 to October 2009 in the throes of the Great Recession. It nearly did so in May 2020 during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The U.S. has also seen deflation when oil prices have tumbled sharply, Hunter said. Energy prices drag down the aggregate inflation index.
That happened for several months in 2015, for example. Oil prices collapsed 70% from mid-2014 to early 2016, driven by growing oil supplies. That collapse was at the time one of the three biggest oil price declines since World War II, according to the World Bank.
Such cases of deflation — linked to falling energy prices — can be a positive for consumers due to falling prices at the gasoline pump, for example, Hunter said.

Consumers are unlikely to see lower price tags

The U.S. Federal Reserve targets a 2% annual inflation rate over the long term.
At this “benign” rate, inflation hardly occupies consumers’ or businesses’ brain power. They generally don’t think much about costs or pricing, or how income and revenue are keeping pace with expenses, House said.
The U.S. is on its way back to that target. The supply-and-demand factors that caused inflation to surge in the pandemic era have largely unwound, economists said.

However, the Fed’s target underscores a perhaps bitter reality for consumers: Consumer price tags are unlikely to deflate (i.e., decline) much if at all for many goods and services. Remember: Disinflation means a lower rate of price growth, not an outright price decline.
“Consumers have woken up to the reality that prices rarely go down in the aggregate,” House said.
Of course, incomes and wages have exceeded inflation in the pandemic era, meaning the average person’s buying power has actually increased despite rising prices.
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The U.S. Department of Education said student loan servicer Mohela, or the Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority, failed to send timely billing statements to 2.5 million borrowers.
Here’s what to know about the issues borrowers are facing as they try to contact their servicers and apply for relief.

Student loan borrowers report spending hours on hold trying to contact their loan servicers.
Laylabird | E+ | Getty Images

Borrowers have been plagued by problems since the restart of student loan payments in the fall.
The U.S. Department of Education said at the end of October that student loan servicer Mohela, or the Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority, failed to send timely billing statements to 2.5 million borrowers.

As a result of Mohela’s errors, more than 800,000 borrowers had become delinquent, the Education Department reported.
Then just last week, the department announced that three additional student loan servicers — Aidvantage, EdFinancial and Nelnet — “all failed to meet contractual obligations to send timely billing statements to a combined total of 758,000 borrowers for the first month of repayment.”
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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has found that borrowers are waiting more than an hour, on average, trying to reach their student loan servicers on the phone. Meanwhile, borrowers’ requests to change payment plans are often stuck pending for more than 30 days with no resolution.
“Servicers are overwhelmed and are failing to help struggling borrowers navigate the options that are available to them,” said Persis Yu, deputy executive director at the Student Borrower Protection Center.

In comments to CNBC after the Education Department’s January announcement, Scott Buchanan, executive director of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance, a trade group for federal student loan servicers, blamed the errors on a lack of resources and notice from the government.
“Time and effort spent by Federal Student Aid and the CFPB on their press strategy would be better put to use in trying to solve the actual problems by coordinating on advocating for more resources and executing better operational planning by the government,” Buchanan said.
Here’s what borrowers should know about the servicer problems.

You shouldn’t be on the hook for servicer errors

Borrowers affected by these servicer issues will be placed into an administrative forbearance until things are sorted out, the Education Department said. In the meantime, you shouldn’t owe any payments and will not face interest charges.
The months spent in administrative forbearance should still count for those borrowers working toward loan cancellation under an income-driven repayment plan or the public service loan forgiveness program.
If your servicer is not following those instructions, you can file a complaint with the Education Department’s feedback system at Studentaid.gov/feedback. Problems can also be reported to the Federal Student Aid’s Ombudsman, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

If you’re unable to reach your servicer on the phone, sending a message via the company’s website may work, Kantrowitz added.

On-ramp periods give borrowers breathing room anyway

In large part because the Biden administration anticipated that it would not be easy to get tens of millions of borrowers back into repayment after a three-year break, it has implemented a 12-month “on-ramp” period.
Through this September, borrowers should be protected from most of the usual repercussions of late or missed payments, including wage garnishments and negative reports to the credit bureaus.

The Education Department recently sent a letter to credit reporting and credit scoring companies reminding them that borrowers’ current activity is not necessarily indicative of an inability or unwillingness to make payments.
People should challenge any negative marks on their credit by contacting their loan servicer or the FSA Ombudsman, Kantrowitz said.
Has the restart of student loan payments negatively affected your credit? If you’re willing to talk about your experience for a story, please email me at annie.nova@nbcuni.com.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

Despite a rocky “soft launch,” more than 1 million students and families have filled out the new FAFSA, according to the Department of Education.
However, it is still unclear when schools will receive each applicant’s information, potentially delaying college award letters and the decision deadline this spring.

For many families, financial aid is crucial when it comes to affording college.
But students must first fill out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid to access any assistance, including student loans, work study and grants. And this year, a new FAFSA form has been plagued by problems.

“It does seem consistent with a process that was rushed at the end with inadequate testing,” higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz said. “They are building the plane while flying.”
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For starters, the new FAFSA just soft-launched on Dec. 30 after a monthslong delay. Typically, students have access to the coming academic year’s form on Oct. 1.
In the days since its launch, the 2024–25 form was only available for limited windows of time as the U.S. Department of Education worked to “resolve minor issues,” according to a department spokesperson.
Some of the issues have been specifically related to contributors to the form, such as parents, who are not U.S. citizens or permanent residents, according to Kantrowitz, in addition to other various glitches and a prolonged processing time.

1 million students submitted a 2024–25 FAFSA so far

Still, the site has been flooded with eager applicants who rely on college aid.
“Over 1 million students and families and counting have successfully filled out the ‘Better FAFSA,’ which is now available 24 hours a day, seven days a week,” U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said in a statement.
In ordinary years, the FAFSA form is used by more than 17 million students and roughly 5,500 colleges and universities in all 50 states, according to the Department of Education.

Kantrowitz, who tested the system Jan. 2, said his submitted application “is still showing as not yet finished processing.”
“Six days later, it is still listed as ‘in review,'” he said. “Normally, the FAFSA would be processed within a few days,” he added.
Despite the lag, the Department of Education said there is “plenty of time to complete the FAFSA form.” Even if students successfully submit a completed 2024–25 form early this year, that information won’t be sent to schools until late January, the department said.

Students are ‘understandably frustrated’

Even by soft-launch standards, the rollout was challenging, according to Justin Draeger, president of the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators.
“Students, families, and financial aid administrators who have been waiting for this release for months are understandably frustrated,” Draeger said.
Further, it is still unclear when schools will receive each applicant’s FAFSA information, he added, which is necessary to begin building financial aid packages and to give students and families enough time to review and compare financial aid offers.
“The sooner the Department can deliver this information, the better,” Draeger said.
Because of the postponement, colleges might not get their financial aid award offers done until late March or early April, according to Kantrowitz.
“They’ll probably send out the offers of admissions out on time, but for families, they won’t know how much aid they are going to get,” he said. “They need to know whether they can afford the college.”

The FAFSA delay’s ‘domino effect’

That could potentially push back National College Decision Day on May 1, which is the deadline many schools set for admitted students to choose a school.
“The FAFSA rollout has been a mess and will be even more so if colleges have to push back their commitment deadlines beyond May 1,” said Hafeez Lakhani, founder and president of Lakhani Coaching in New York. “This will have a domino effect on wait list candidates as well.”
Still, Rick Castellano, a spokesperson for Sallie Mae, advises students and families not to get discouraged.
“Families shouldn’t use this setback, however, as a reason not to submit the form,” Castellano said.
“Completing the FAFSA can unlock scholarships, grants, state-based, and federal aid, and the last thing you want to do is leave free money on the table,” he said.
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Dating apps see the highest rate of activity from the beginning of January to Valentine’s Day, experts say.
“Dating Sunday,” the first Sunday in January, is referred to as “the busiest day for online dating,” said Sheldon Bachan, senior brand communications manager at Tinder.
While getting back into the dating scene can spur many emotions, one thing is certain: It can be expensive.

Janina Steinmetz | Digitalvision | Getty Images

January can set the stage for new beginnings, with many single people setting a resolution to look for love.
In fact, dating apps see the highest rate of activity at this time of year.

There are 11.4 million more messages sent globally from Jan. 1 to Feb. 14 — Valentine’s Day — compared with the rest of the year, according to global internal data from dating app Tinder, and 58.7 million more likes are sent during this period.
“Everyone is back from the holidays with fresh New Year’s resolutions whether to find love, make more connections, or to put themselves out there in the New Year,” said Blaine Anderson, a dating coach for men in Austin, Texas.
“Dating Sunday,” the first Sunday in January, is referred to as “the busiest day for online dating,” said Sheldon Bachan, senior brand communications manager at Tinder.
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Like many other New Year’s resolutions, getting back on dating apps often requires a financial commitment. Some 35% of Americans who have used a dating website or app have paid to do so at some point, according to a recent report by Pew Research Center.

The average paying dating app user spends about $19 a month, Morgan Stanley found last year. But some users pay much more. In 2023, Tinder released a $499 monthly subscription, and Hinge introduced a $600-a-month membership.

3 things to consider before paying for a dating app

If you’re hunting for love in the new year, here are three things to be mindful of before you pay for a dating app:
1. Ask yourself if you are ready. If you haven’t made any changes in your life, paying for an app may not help: You’re likely to get the same results that you had before, said Anderson. “Do you have a job that allows you to have more time to date? Do you have the financial means to take people on dates or subscribe to dating apps?… Are you mentally prepared to integrate your life with somebody else’s?” she said.
2. App costs add to the already high expense of dating: Make sure your budget is prepared to weather the cost of the app as well as the resulting dates. The average cost of a full dinner and a movie across major cities in the U.S. is $159, according to a 2023 analysis by MoneyGeek. A 2020 report by LendingTree shows that Americans spend nearly $700 on dates annually.

3. Paying for apps does not guarantee a match: While paying app subscriptions may seem to be an investment in your dating life, users must understand that “the most important thing for online dating is to have a standout profile,” said Anderson. Simply paying for apps won’t immediately change your prospects. Instead, edit your profile and get a second opinion from trusted peers or dating experts.
“It’s not your fault; you didn’t learn this in school,” said Anderson, “We’re not meant to think in 160 characters or a little box of text to describe ourselves.”
— CNBC reporter Annie Nova contributed reporting. More

A survey by Deutsche Bank found that calorie consumption declines when a patient takes a GLP-1 medication like Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic or Wegovy.
However, once the medication is stopped, the number of calories a patient consumes will rise again.
In some cases, a patient will eat more than they consumed prior to treatment, the survey found.

A customer shops in a Kroger grocery store on July 15, 2022 in Houston, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Investors have cheered a new class of weight loss drugs for their ability to help people shed unwanted pounds, but the findings of a recent poll underscore the challenges patients face if they cease treatment.
The survey by Deutsche Bank found that calorie consumption declines when a patient takes a GLP-1 medication like Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic or Wegovy. However, once the medication is stopped, the number of calories a patient consumes will rise again — and in some cases, will be even higher than what he or she was consuming before treatment began, the survey found.

The polling was conducted in December, and involved 600 U.S. consumers, Deutsche Bank said in a research note. Seventy percent of the participants were using a GLP-1 drug when questioned, while the remaining 30% had stopped taking this type of medication. The investment bank conducted the survey as part of its attempts to better understand the long-term implications of anti-obesity medications, which also include Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, on the food and beverage industry.
The survey found that among the patients still on medication, about 30% said they ate “a little less,” while 22% said they ate a “a lot less.”
“Perhaps surprisingly, 17% of respondents stated that they were consuming a lot more and 18% a little more,” the bank’s analysts wrote. “This meant that a net 18% of those who were using GLP-1 medication were eating less.”
“However, amongst those who were no longer taking GLP-1 this more than reversed with a net 30% stating that they were now eating more than they were prior to using GLP-1 medication,” the report said.
“We believe that the survey conclusions back up our view that GLP-1 is not a reason in of itself to avoid investing in Food and Beverage stocks,” the analysts wrote in the note.

A year to forget

Without a doubt, 2023 was a year worth forgetting for many food and beverage stocks, with many underperforming the market. For those shares that managed to eke out a gain in 2023, the upside likely came late in the year.
Many food and beverage stocks began falling in the summer, as awareness of GLP-1 medications like Wegovy spread. The move accelerated after the release of data from Novo Nordisk in August showed that the drugs could help patients not only lose weight but also improve their cardiovascular health. Investors started to worry that people would widely adopt the drugs and there would be all sorts of ripple effects, which started to be reflected in stock prices.
But in the midst of the market’s year-end rally, a fresh batch of data also showed that patients who took Zepbound and stopped regained around half the weight they had lost while they were on the treatment. That finding helped some of the affected stocks to recover.

Stock chart icon

Kraft Heinz shares over the past year.

Shares of Mondelez, the maker of Oreos and Cadbury, gained 16% over the past three months, which helped it tally an 8% gain over the past year. Kraft Heinz shares posted a 10.2% loss over the past year, but has reaped a 19% gain over the three-month period. U.S.-traded shares of Nestle are up more than 5% over the past three months, but the stock has a 2% loss over the past 12 months. Unilever shares follow a similar pattern. Shares of the Ben & Jerry’s owner are up nearly 2% over the past three months, but are down more than 3% over the past year.

Appetite comes roaring back

Deutsche Bank said the impact of anti-obesity medicines on food and beverage stocks needs to assessed “in the context of all weight loss programs and the possibility that GLP-1 cannibalises such programs, limiting the net effect on food and beverage producers.”
Dr. Shantanu Gaur, founder and CEO of Allurion Technologies, said the results of the survey are not surprising. Allurion, which went public via SPAC in August, is developing a gastric balloon and behavior modification programs to treat obesity.
“This is something that you would expect,” he said explaining that “appetite can return with a vengeance” once patients stop GLP-1 therapy. Bodies tend to seek out a “set point,” or a preferred weight mass where they will return to without intervention and behavior modification.
Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, acts like a natural hormone, glucagon-like peptide-1, or GLP-1, in the body to control insulin levels in the blood and suppress appetite. Zepbound (tirzepatide) mimics GLP-1 as well as a second incretin, glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide, or GIP. Once these hormones are no longer supplemented in the body, hunger signals will return.
The American Medical Association has said that obesity is a chronic condition, and Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly expect patients who take incretin medications will need to be on the drugs long term to control their weight. In this way, incretin drugs are like medications that are taken for conditions such as high blood pressure and cholesterol. Patients aren’t told to stop taking those drugs once their blood pressure and cholesterol levels fall to a healthy range. If they do, the readings are likely to spike again.
But even with blood pressure medication, compliance can be an issue. Dr. Gaur said about half of people on cholesterol medication will stop taking it after a year. The rate of compliance is even lower with anti-obesity medications, he said.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank said it expects interest in weight loss programs may be peaking as shown by internet search data, and that tends to be a good time for investors to hold food and beverage stocks. Nestle and Unilever are the firm’s top European picks, while Mondelez and Kraft rank among its favored U.S. staples names.
“The main point is that usage of GLP-1 drugs is not just a pure addition to the total number of people on weight loss programs, it is part of the entire eco-system,” the report said. “We suspect that many of the answers given with regard to consumption would be similar for those given by many people when they start a weight loss program.”
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As Congress negotiates federal funding for the 2024 fiscal year, Social Security beneficiaries’ checks won’t be interrupted, expert says.
But budget negotiations may have an impact on the quality of the services the Social Security Administration can provide.

The United States Capitol building is seen in Washington D.C., United States on October 4 , 2023. 
Yasin Ozturk | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

What may happen with Social Security in a shutdown

If the worst-case scenario happens, and lawmakers fail to finalize a deal before both of those dates, it may take some time for Americans to notice, according to Andrew Lautz, senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
“Americans don’t start to really feel the day-to-day effects until a shutdown has lasted for a week or two and agencies have to start shutting down more and more programs and services,” Lautz said.
Those effects may be felt on a “rolling basis,” he said, as Americans find the programs and services they rely on become unavailable, such as a phone line that becomes inactive because government employees have been furloughed or a department that stops giving out loans or grants during the shutdown period.

The disruptions may be most acutely felt by tens of thousands of federal employees who find themselves either furloughed or working without pay.
In reaction to the threat of a partial government shutdown last year, the Social Security Office of Budget, Finance and Management outlined its plans for agency operations during a lapse.
Certain activities — such as applications for benefits or issuance of Social Security cards — would continue. Other services — such as benefit verifications or replacement Medicare cards — would be put on hold.
That framework for Social Security may still apply if the lawmakers fail to finalize an agreement before the Feb. 2 deadline, according to Richtman.

Advocates are watching Social Security funding

This weekend’s activity has prompted optimism that Washington leaders may be able to get an agreement done before those dates.
However, Social Security advocates including the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare are closely watching how much funding the agency receives through the negotiations.
President Joe Biden last year requested $1.4 billion more for Social Security in 2024, while House Republicans advocated for cuts to the agency’s operations budget.

Current negotiations point to flat funding for the Social Security Administration, according to the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, while reports show the agency already has long waits for service and outdated technology.
Lack of adequate funding may challenge new Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley’s plans to improve the agency’s services, Richtman said.
Lawmakers often report hearing from constituents that they have difficulty getting through to Social Security, obtaining replacement cards or verifying their benefits, he said.
“These members of Congress or Senate complain to Social Security, but they won’t provide enough funding to actually be able to do the job,” Richtman said.
“That’s hypocrisy on the part of those members,” he said. More