Markus Andrews

Senators expressed concern that Elon Musk’s DOGE had “infiltrated” the U.S. Department of Education and possibly gained access to federal student loan data for millions of Americans.
Recent news that Musk was granted access to the Treasury Department’s system, which includes Social Security and Medicare payments, also triggered criticism from lawmakers and advocates.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks to a crowd gathered in front of the U.S. Treasury Department in protest of Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency on Feb. 4, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Anna Rose Layden | Getty Images

U.S. senators expressed concern on Friday that Elon Musk’s cost-cutting effort, the Department of Government Efficiency, had “infiltrated” the Department of Education and possibly gained access to federal student loan data on tens of millions of borrowers.
In a letter signed by 16 Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Chuck Schumer of New York, the lawmakers said that the Education Department’s student loan database “contains millions of borrowers’ highly sensitive information, including Social Security numbers, marital status, and income data.”

The senators cited reporting by The Washington Post, which noted Education Department staff were “deeply alarmed” by DOGE staffers’ access to federal student loan borrowers’ personal information.
“The millions of families who rely on ED to help them achieve the American Dream deserve answers about reports that an unelected billionaire and his team now have access to some of their most sensitive personal information,” the senators wrote.
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The lawmakers addressed their letter to U.S. Department of Education Acting Secretary Denise Carter, and asked for answers by Feb. 13, including on whether DOGE staff meet “the strict criteria” that would allow them involvement in the Education Department’s data on borrowers. Musk’s DOGE is an office within the president’s executive office, tasked with looking for ways to shrink the federal budget.
Madi Biedermann, spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Education, said DOGE staff are federal employees.

“They have been sworn in, have the necessary background checks and clearances, and are focused on making the Department more cost-efficient, effective, and accountable to the taxpayers,” Biedermann said. “There is nothing inappropriate or nefarious going on.”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Recent news that DOGE was granted access to the Treasury Department’s system, which includes Social Security and Medicare payments, also triggered criticism from Democratic lawmakers and advocates.

Separately, the Trump administration is considering an executive order that could shut down parts of the U.S. Department of Education, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
It’s uncertain what this would mean for the 42 million Americans with federal student loans. The Education Department administers the country’s $1.6 trillion in outstanding education debt.
Public Citizen Litigation Group and the National Student Legal Defense Network, representing the University of California Student Association, also filed a lawsuit on Friday against the U.S. Department of Education for sharing data with Musk’s DOGE.
“Students’ participation in federal financial aid programs doesn’t give the government carte blanche to use their personal information for whatever purposes it wants,” said Adam Pulver, an attorney at Public Citizen Litigation Group.

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The earned income tax credit, or EITC, is worth up to $7,830 for eligible families with three or more children for 2024.
Meanwhile, the additional child tax credit, or ACTC, is up to $1,700 for 2024.
Both tax breaks are “refundable,” meaning filers can use the credits to claim a refund, even without tax liability.

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Many taxpayers qualify for credits worth hundreds or even thousands of dollars — even if you don’t have a federal filing requirement.  
Generally, you must file a tax return with earnings over a certain threshold, depending on filing status. However, submitting your return can be beneficial, even when it’s not required, according to the IRS.   

“I’ve seen five-figure refunds” for those claiming both the earned income tax credit, or EITC, and additional child tax credit, or ACTC, with two or more children, said Syracuse University law professor Robert Nassau, director of the school’s low-income tax clinic. 
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Both tax credits are “refundable,” meaning filers can still get a refund, even without tax liability, which can be a “big deal,” Nassau said.
Sometimes, lower earners don’t owe taxes after subtracting the standard deduction and tax credits, like EITC and ACTC. Their income could be below the filing threshold, but they must submit a return to claim a refund.
Together, the EITC and ACTC are “often considered the largest financial event of a low-income family’s year,” said Elaine Maag, a senior fellow in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute, who wrote about the tax credits this week. 

Here’s a breakdown of how these tax credits work and who qualifies. 

How the EITC works

Designed for low- to moderate-income workers, the earned income tax credit is worth up to $7,830 for eligible families with three or more children for 2024. The maximum credit for single or married workers ages 25 to 64 without kids is $632.
“The EITC starts phasing in at the first dollar of earnings,” Maag said.
You may be eligible for the EITC with “earned income,” or wages from work, of up to $59,899 for single filers and up to $66,819 for married couples filing jointly.
However, nearly 1 in 5 eligible taxpayers don’t claim the EITC because they don’t know about it or don’t realize their qualify, former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said in early January. 

Who qualifies for the child tax credit 

“After you earn $2,500 and you have children, you’re also eligible for a child tax credit,” Maag said. 
The child tax credit is worth up to $2,000 per kid under age 17, and the refundable portion, known as the additional child tax credit, is up to $1,700 per child. 
The tax break decreases once adjusted gross income exceeds $200,000 for single taxpayers or $400,000 for married couples filing jointly. 
By law, the IRS can’t issue EITC or ACTC refunds before mid-February. You can check the status of your refund via the agency’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool or the IRS2Go app. More

A recent consumer survey found that 86% of Americans expect price hikes from higher tariffs; and 46% are planning to shop secondhand to lessen the financial blow.
Thrift shopping has been a growing interest among shoppers in recent years — and there are no signs of it slowing down.
Experts weigh in on what to consider when you scroll online or step into a secondhand shop. 

Oleh_slobodeniuk | E+ | Getty Images

With tariffs ramping up, the prices on some everyday items will rise as well. That is weighing heavily on American consumers. 
A recent consumer survey found that 86% of Americans expect price hikes from higher tariffs; and many already have a strategy to cushion the blow.

Faced with higher costs, 67% plan to change their shopping habits, according to the report by Bid-on-Equipment. Among the top changes respondents plan to adopt, 46% say they will shop at thrift or secondhand stores. Other saving strategies include comparison shopping or buying fewer imported goods. The survey polled more than 1,000 adults in January.
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In another survey by shopping app Smarty, 50% of respondents said with tariffs, they’re more likely to consider secondhand goods or local alternatives.
“Initially there’s quite a bit of uncertainty, and we expect that to grow while the timetable for these tariffs start to become people’s reality,” said Vipin Porwal, Smarty’s founder. “Savvy consumers will look to ramp up savings and rewards opportunities any way they can.”

Some Americans reconsider thrifting

A separate report by ThredUp, an online consignment and thrift store, reflects a similar finding: More than half, 55%, of surveyed consumers say if the economy doesn’t improve, they’ll spend a higher share of their apparel budget on secondhand items. 

“You can see this only amplifying” in a world with tariffs and inflation, said James Reinhart, CEO of ThredUp.
In fact, for 60% of respondents, thrifted clothes gives them the most “bang for their buck,” the report found. The report is based on research by GlobalData, as well as a December 2023 survey of more than 3,600 adults. 

‘Tariffs are a tax’

“The tariffs are a tax on the consumer,” said Shawn Grain Carter, an associate professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology, part of the State University of New York.
Some popular brands like Shein and Temu imported from China could face an immediate impact and will likely funnel those extra costs to customers in the way of higher prices. 

As part of the new tariffs on China, President Donald Trump revoked a popular tax loophole known as de minimis. The exemption allowed many e-commerce companies to send goods worth less than $800 into the U.S. duty-free.
“This is a major change,” Ann Cantrell, associate professor of fashion business management at the FIT, said of the new rule. 

Recommerce is taking off

Buying from secondhand stores to get a discount is not a new trend. In 2023, 85% of respondents said “saving money” was the top reason they shop in thrift stores, according to a 2024 report by Capital One. 
What’s more, thrifters save on average $1,760 a year by purchasing secondhand, the bank found. 
Shoppers continue to embrace so-called recommerce, driven by a pursuit of value and a desire to shop in more sustainable ways. Reports show the stigma around buying secondhand is now largely gone.
Over the next five years, the recommerce market is projected to grow 55% by 2029, reaching $291.6 billion and outpacing the overall retail market, according to a 2024 recommerce report by OfferUp, an online marketplace for buying and selling new and used items.
While the industry has been dominated by clothing resale, 76% of recommerce transactions now involve non-clothing items like electronics, furniture, home goods, sports equipment and car parts, OfferUp found. 
Still, secondhand shopping cannot replace all of the conveniences that consumers have become accustomed to, according to Steven Conners, founder and president of Conners Wealth Management in Scottsdale, Arizona.
“We are in a convenience economy, we are programmed by the likes of Amazon,” Conners said. “I would be reluctant to say secondhand items are going to be all the rage six months from now.”

What to know before you shop secondhand

Whether you’re scrolling online for a secondhand item or stepping into a brick-and-mortar thrift store, you should prioritize the quality and the construction of your products, experts say.
Consumer savings expert Andrea Woroch recommends shopping local listing sites like Facebook Marketplace and NextDoor to find deals for large household items and sporting goods, such as furniture, bikes and even light fixtures like chandeliers, which are often imported and tend to cost a lot to ship.
However, “avoid large household appliances which could not function properly if you’re buying directly from another person,” Woroch said. “Your best bet with large and small kitchen appliances is to look for certified refurbished models from reputable retailers like Amazon Renewed or open-box items or floor models from The Home Depot or Best Buy.”
When it comes to clothing, there is no shortage of stores and sites for secondhand apparel and accessories. Those savings may not be as significant, Woroch cautioned.

“Sometimes the prices for gently used clothing are similar to what you can find on sale for new items at the end of the season from regular retailers or through discount shopping stores like Nordstrom Rack, Ross and TJMaxx,” she said.
However, there may still be a “better value proposition” through secondhand and resale stores, FIT’s Grain Carter said.
But “to get the best value for your money” consider the four C’s, Grain Carter said: cut, construction, craftsmanship and condition.
For instance, look at the fibers and materials used to make the clothing item: cotton, silk, linen, flax and wool are natural fibers that will last longer. Engineered or “man-made” fibers like spandex will decompose and have a “shorter shelf life,” according to Grain Carter.
“When you start paying attention to those things, you’ll know this is a garment that has stood the test of time,” she said — and better yet, “it will continue to stand the test of time.” More

The S&P 500 provided investors with record gains over the past two years.
In 2025, focusing on that index may not reap the same gains.
“The set it, forget it is done,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

A person walks past the New York Stock Exchange at Wall Street in New York on Feb. 3, 2025.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images

A “torrid two-year stretch” prompted the S&P 500 to gain around 70%, but that momentum is stalling, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management said in its investment strategy research this week.
Consequently, the days of the “set-it-and-forget-it” approach, where individual investors reaped large gains just by parking their stocks in an S&P 500 index fund buoyed by the Magnificent Seven, may be over.

“The ‘set it, forget it’ is done,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “We can’t set it and forget it because there’s new considerations every morning when you walk in the door.”
The investment environment is shifting to a new period that Morgan Stanley is calling “The Great Normalization,” where rates and valuations may normalize, equities may be driven by earnings growth, and there may be less index concentration.
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The announcement that China-based company DeepSeek has built a powerful new artificial intelligence model may undermine U.S.-only dominance in the space, Morgan Stanley notes in its latest investment research.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve has also recently made it clear that they are going to be patient and are in “no hurry to cut rates any further,” Shalett said.

Despite a 30-day pause on tariffs for both Canada and Mexico, no one can predict what may happen when that time is up, she said — and how the market may react.
“When you have rising uncertainty, you need to price in risk,” Shalett said.

Time to ‘demand higher returns’ for risk

It’s now important for investors to be diversified and pay attention to the idea that risk premiums are going up, Shalett said.
“They should demand higher returns for the risk that they’re taking,” Shalett said.
Investors may look for value by seeking cheaper stocks where expectations aren’t already priced in, she said. In a more idiosyncratic market, some investment strategies like commodities or hedge funds may perform better, she said.
Tariff announcements sent markets falling early Monday, though news of a 30-day pause with Mexico prompted a rebound that same day.

Though just a blip, the event was a wake-up call for individual investors, financial advisors said. As new developments with tariffs and other initiatives may prompt market volatility, now is the time for investors to do a gut check to make sure they’re comfortable with their amount of equity exposure, advisors say.
Within those equity investments, it’s also important to revisit how they’re invested.
“People should always diversify their investments,” said Ivory Johnson, a certified financial planner and founder of Delancey Wealth Management. “Now you see that more.”
Johnson is a CNBC FA Council member.
To be sure, Wall Street projections still expect the S&P 500 to finish up for the year.
“We’re not bearish,” Shalett said. “We’re very concerned about the chaos in Washington because it’s very hard to model the outcomes.” More

Typically, tax filers receive a refund when paycheck withholdings or estimated payments exceed taxes owed.
Most taxpayers receive their refund within 21 days, but “several factors” can impact the timing, according to the IRS.
The easiest way to check on your refund is via Where’s My Refund? online or the IRS2Go app. The IRS updates refund statuses overnight daily.

Cabania | iStock | Getty Images Plus

With tax season underway, the IRS expects more than 140 million returns from individuals through the April 15 deadline — and many early filers are already waiting for a refund.
With taxpayers eager for updates, many have asked “where’s my refund?” online this week, according to Google Trends data.

While 27% of Americans plan to splurge on non-essentials, nearly half will use their refund to pay down debt, according to a Credit Karma survey that polled 1,000 adults in late December and early January. 
Typically, filers receive a refund when paycheck withholdings or estimated payments exceed taxes owed. Generally, you owe a balance when you don’t pay enough throughout the year.
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As of Dec. 27, the average refund was $3,138 for the 2024 filing season, according to the IRS. If you’re waiting for a refund this year, here’s when to expect it and how to check the status.

When to expect your tax refund

“Nine out of 10 taxpayers will see their refund within 21 days of filing, and often sooner,” former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said in early January.  

But “many factors” can affect the timing of when you’ll receive the money, and some filings may require “additional review,” which could take longer, according to the IRS.
“You want to electronically file,” said Mark Steber, chief tax information officer of Jackson Hewitt Tax Services. “That can take weeks off your refund timing.”
However, by law, the IRS can’t issue refunds claiming the earned income tax credit and additional child tax credit before mid-February. Filers with those credits should receive refunds by March 3 if they chose direct deposit and there are no other tax return issues, according to the IRS.

How to check the status of your tax refund

The “easiest way” to check on your refund is via the “Where’s My Refund?” tool or the IRS2Go app, according to the IRS. The agency updates refund statuses overnight daily.
“We’ve upgraded this tool, and we will also offer voice bot services to taxpayers who prefer to call the IRS for refund information,” Werfel said in January.
To check online, you’ll need your Social Security number or individual taxpayer identification number, filing status and your exact refund amount. 
You can expect a status update 24 hours after electronically filing a current-year return or three to four days after e-filing a prior-year return, according to the IRS. Meanwhile, updates for paper-filed returns could take up to four weeks.     More

On the campaign trail, President Donald Trump floated an “all tariff policy,” which he said would allow the U.S. to eliminate income tax.
However, some economic policy experts say there isn’t a big enough tax base from imported goods to replace revenue from individual income taxes.
“It’s just not a realistic proposal,” said Alex Durante, senior economist at the Tax Foundation.

A truck drives past shipping containers at the Port of Philadelphia, Nov. 6, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

As President Donald Trump begins imposing tariffs on imported goods, some experts question his revenue expectations — including the possibility of replacing the federal income tax. 
During his presidential campaign, Trump floated an “all tariff policy” at a June meeting with Republican lawmakers, where he said the plan would allow the U.S. to eliminate income tax.

Some policy experts have been skeptical of the idea.  
“It’s just not a realistic proposal,” said Alex Durante, senior economist at the Tax Foundation, which analyzed the idea in June.  
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While tariffs were a major source of federal revenue during the 19th century, U.S. spending levels have since increased significantly, Durante said.
The U.S. federal government in 2023 spent 22.7% of its gross domestic product, which is about 10 times the share of the economy compared with when tariffs were a primary source of revenue, according to the Tax Foundation analysis. 

“You can’t have 21st century government spending with a 19th century tax system,” Durante said.

‘The math doesn’t work’

Over the past 70 years, tariffs haven’t accounted for much more than 2% of total federal revenue annually, according to the Congressional Research Service.
During fiscal year 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection collected $77 billion in tariffs, which was roughly 1.57% of total federal revenue, the organization reported. 
However, the bigger issue is the relative size of the tax base from tariffs, compared with individuals paying income tax, according to the Tax Foundation analysis.  
The Trump administration did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

The math doesn’t work.

Erica York
Vice president of federal tax policy with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy

“The math doesn’t work,” wrote Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy with the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy.   
During tax year 2021, the IRS collected about $2.2 trillion from individual taxpayers, the latest IRS data shows. Replacing that would require “astronomically high tariff rates,” York wrote.
Plus, several factors, including noncompliance and consumers’ behavioral changes, could reduce the amount of tariff revenue collected.  
“Tariff rates would have to be implausibly high on such a small base of imports to replace the income tax,” wrote Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld, fellows at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who co-authored a June report on the topic. 
“As tax rates rose, the base itself would shrink as imports fall, making Trump’s $2 trillion goal unattainable,” they wrote.  More

President Donald Trump imposed a 10% additional tariff on imports from China. The nation retaliated with its own tariffs on the U.S., set to take effect Feb. 10.
Economists say a broader trade war could ensue if the U.S. puts tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union, which Trump has threatened to do.
Something similar happened in 1930 after passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which reduced global trade and exacerbated the Great Depression, economists said.

QINGDAO, CHINA – NOVEMBER 8, 2023 – Container ships frequently enter and exit the Qianwan Container Terminal of Qingdao Port in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, Nov 8, 2023. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

A trade war is brewing — and, if history is any guide, the U.S. economy may not be too happy about it.
President Donald Trump on Saturday levied a 10% additional tariff on all imports from China starting Tuesday. In response, China retaliated with its own tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports, starting Feb. 10.

Experts believe these are just the initial salvos of a broader trade war between the two nations. 
Meanwhile, the U.S. is on the precipice of a trade spat with Canada and Mexico. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on the European Union — and, if that happens, the nations have vowed retribution.
“I will never support the idea of fighting allies,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Monday. “But of course, if the U.S. puts tough terms on Europe, we need a collective and robust response.”
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The current animosity bears many similarities to an earlier episode in U.S. history — the Tariff Act of 1930 — which triggered an all-out trade war and exacerbated the Great Depression, according to economic historians. 

The law, known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, was “one of the most controversial tariff acts ever enacted by Congress,” Doug Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and past president of the Economic History Association, wrote in 2020.
It was also the last instance of a trade war involving the U.S., prior to Trump’s first term, said Kris James Mitchener, an economics professor at Santa Clara University who studies economic history and political economy.
Smoot-Hawley sparked “the mother of all trade wars,” Mitchener said.

What was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff?

Rep. Willis Hawley, R-Ore., left, and Sen. Reed Smoot, R-Utah, in April 1929, shortly before the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act passed the House.
Source: Library of Congress

If the Smoot-Hawley Tariff sounds vaguely familiar, it may be thanks to pop culture: The 1986 movie “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” has a memorable scene in which a high school teacher drones on in a crawling monotone voice about the tariffs.
Among Smoot-Hawley’s chief aims was to safeguard U.S. farmers, who had expanded agricultural production during WWI but suffered after the war as European production came back online and prices collapsed, Mitchener said.
However, Congress expanded the scope of the tariffs considerably, extending beyond agriculture to include all sectors of the economy. The law got its name from its chief Republican supporters in Congress: Rep. Willis Hawley of Oregon, chair of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, and Sen. Reed Smoot of Utah, who chaired the Senate Finance Committee.
Smoot-Hawley was “broad,” putting tariffs on roughly 25% of all goods imported to the U.S. — about 800 to 900 different types of goods, Mitchener said. 

If the U.S. puts tough terms on Europe, we need a collective and robust response.

Mette Frederiksen
prime minister of Denmark

President Herbert Hoover, who had run for the office on a platform of helping farmers with protective tariffs, signed the law in June 1930, ignoring a petition signed by more than 1,000 economists asking him to veto the bill.
The law raised dutiable tariffs — tariffs on goods subject to import duties — by about 6 percentage points, on average, Mitchener said.
While that may not sound like much, those duties sparked a trade war with major U.S. trading partners, which was perhaps their “most important ramification,” wrote Irwin of Dartmouth College. 

How did Smoot-Hawley provoke a trade war?

Smoot-Hawley raised the average tariff on dutiable imports to 47% from 40%, Irwin said. Depression-era price deflation ultimately helped push that average to almost 60% in 1932, he added.
Nine nations — Argentina, Australia, Canada, Cuba, France, Italy, Mexico, Spain and Switzerland — imposed retaliatory tariffs directed specifically at U.S. products, Mitchener said. 
“Canada, which was heavily dependent on the U.S. market, retaliated almost immediately and imposed tariffs significant enough to put a sizable dent into American exports,” Irwin wrote.
That “tit-for-tat response” with targeted tariffs is the hallmark of a trade war, Mitchener said.

Other nations formed trade blocs that excluded the U.S., Irwin wrote. Ultimately, 35 governments lodged official protests against Smoot-Hawley, Mitchener said. 
The result: Global trade collapsed, exacerbating the Great Depression, which was the worst economic downturn in U.S. history, economists said. U.S. exports to retaliating nations fell by about 28% to 32%, said Mitchener. Further, nations that protested Smoot-Hawley also reduced their U.S. imports by 15% to 23%.
It was “among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history,” according to a historical overview on the U.S. Senate website.

Tariffs leading up to Trump

The U.S. reversed course after realizing how tariffs can fuel foreign policy issues and contribute to world wars, said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Stiefel Trade Policy Center of the CATO Institute.
The global economy is “like an intricate choreographed dance,” Lincicome said. “Tariffs are just kind of throwing a wrench in that dance.”
The average tariff rate for dutiable imports cratered from about 59% in 1932 to roughly 13% in 1950, and fell below 5% from the mid-1990s to 2015, according to a 2024 analysis by the CATO Institute. 
Meanwhile, the average tariff rate across all imports — which include products not subject to tariffs — fell from about 20% in 1933 to below 2% from 2000 to 2019.
While presidents who preceded Trump, as well as President Joe Biden, have also used tariffs, they were enacted for different reasons and at different magnitudes, experts say.

These have not been rationales used for tariffs in the past.

Brett House
professor of professional practice in the economics division at Columbia Business School

Historically, “tariffs have been typically invoked by U.S. administrations when domestic industry has complained about competition from foreign suppliers,” said Brett House, professor of professional practice in the economics division at Columbia Business School.
For instance, during President Barack Obama’s second administration in 2013, the International Trade Commission issued “anti-dumping duties,” or a form of tariff, on washing machines specifically from Mexico and South Korea.
Years later, during his first term, Trump issued a tariff on washing machines as well, but it was global instead of narrowing it to specific countries. At the same time, Trump imposed other tariffs, such as costs on steel and aluminum. 
Other presidents, including George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon, had also put tariffs on steel, an industry that’s historically received federal protection, Irwin told CNBC. But Trump’s second term is unique in that he’s using tariffs in a “broad brush” manner — applied to all of a nation’s goods, for example — something “no president in recent memory” has done, Irwin said.
Additionally, “what is very distinct about Trump’s tariff policy is the supposed justification for it, which is to try to discipline Canada and Mexico for the flow of illegal drugs and undocumented people across their borders,” House said.
“These have not been rationales used for tariffs in the past.” 

Will history repeat?

The Smoot-Hawley-induced spat resembles today’s trade environment in a few key ways — including prominent trade partners calling for retaliation against U.S. policy, economists said. 
For example, before reaching 11th-hour deals to delay 25% tariffs for one month, officials in Canada and Mexico vowed to fight back.
Canadian President Justin Trudeau on Saturday warned that his country would implement a 25% tariff on about $107 billion of U.S. goods. They included duties on meat, dairy, produce and other food products, and beer, wine and spirits.

China said it will impose 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas imports from the U.S., and 10% on American crude oil, agricultural machinery and certain cars.
“We’re already seeing a trade war unfold,” Irwin told CNBC.
Proposed tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico would shrink U.S. economic output by 0.4 percentage points and increase taxes on Americans by $1.1 trillion between 2025 and 2034, before accounting for any retaliation, according to an estimate by the Tax Foundation.
Of course, “whether it becomes a trade war and history repeats in that [Smoot-Hawley] dimension depends on the response of our trade partners and/or whether Trump is bluffing to get some sort of concession,” Mitchener wrote in an e-mail. More

The Trump administration is looking for ways to partially or completely eliminate the U.S. Department of Education.
Here’s what that could mean for the more than 42 million Americans with federal student loans.

An American flag and a U.S. Department of Education flag fly outside the US Department of Education building in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 1, 2025. 
Annabelle Gordon | Reuters

With the Trump administration looking for ways to close parts or all of the U.S. Department of Education, many of the country’s 42 million federal student loan borrowers are likely feeling on edge.
One of the Education Department’s functions is underwriting the loans that enable millions of people each year to attend college and graduate school. It also administers the country’s $1.6 trillion outstanding education debt tab.

“The anxiety levels are pretty high for borrowers right now,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit that helps borrowers navigate the repayment of their debt.
Closing the agency would require an act of Congress, experts say.
Still, Trump administration officials are considering an executive order that could halt parts of the agency, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. On the campaign trail, President Donald Trump said shuttering the department would be a priority.
“The President plans to fulfill a campaign promise by revaluating the future of the Department of Education,” said a White House spokesperson.
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Former President Jimmy Carter established the U.S. Department of Education in 1979. Since then, the department has faced other existential threats, with former President Ronald Reagan calling for its end and Trump, during his first term, attempting to merge it with the Labor Department.
Efforts by the Trump administration to dismantle the Education Department likely will face criticism.
To that point, 61% of likely voters say they oppose the Trump administration’s use of an executive order to abolish the Education Department, according to a poll conducted by Data for Progress on behalf of the Student Borrower Protection Center and  Groundwork Collaborative. Just 34% of respondents approve of such a move. The survey of 1,294 people was conducted Jan. 31 to Feb. 2.
Here’s what the possible changes to the department could mean for student loan borrowers.

What would happen to my student loans?

Even if the Education Department no longer existed, student loan debt would still be due, Mayotte said.
“Just because the entity that manages the loan changes, it in no way changes the terms [of the loan],” she said.
For example, mortgages often get sold to other companies, and millions of student loan borrowers have recently had their accounts transferred to another servicer, Mayotte added.
The Treasury Department would be the next most logical agency to administer student debt, Mayotte said.
It’s also possible that the Justice Department or the Department of Labor could carry out some of the Education Department’s functions, according to a blog post by The National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators.
Meanwhile, some Republicans have expressed interest in privatizing the federal student loan system, higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz said. This prospect worries consumer advocates, who point out that students need extra protections that are not required of private lenders.

The federal student loan system is already plagued by problems, said Michele Shepard Zampini, senior director of college affordability at The Institute For College Access and Success. Transferring the loan accounts of tens of millions of people to another agency would only make things worse, she said.
“Borrowers and students need more stability, and this would create chaos,” Shepard Zampini said.

Financial aid for new and current students could be delayed

New and current students who rely on financial aid for college would likely experience delays if the Education Department is partially or fully shut down, Shepard Zampini said.
That would be a major problem for families, she said.
“People can’t go to college without student loans, unfortunately,” Shepard Zampini said.

Students prepare for lecture at the University of Texas at Austin on February 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas. 
Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Kantrowitz agreed.
“Disruption is bad, very bad,” Kantrowitz said. “During a transition, federal student aid might not become available for weeks or longer.” More