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Professional and business services, the industry that represents “white collar” and middle and upper-class, educated workers, hasn’t experienced much hiring activity lately.
However, economists have said that the decline in white-collar job openings is more driven by structural issues in the economy rather than artificial intelligence technology taking people’s jobs. 
“This is more of an economic story and less of an AI disruption story, at least so far,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, a job search site.

Artificial intelligence makes people more valuable, according to PwC’s 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer report.
Pixdeluxe | E+ | Getty Images

While there hasn’t been much hiring for so-called “white collar” jobs, the contraction is not because of artificial intelligence, economists say. At least, not yet.
Professional and business services, the industry that represents white-collar roles and middle and upper-class, educated workers, hasn’t experienced much hiring activity over the past two years.

In May, job growth in professional and business services declined to -0.4%, slightly down from -0.2% in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In other words, the sector has been losing job opportunities, according to Cory Stahle, an economist at job search site Indeed.
Meanwhile, industries like health care, construction and manufacturing have seen more job creation. In May, nearly half of the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000 jobs, the bureau found.
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However, economists have said that the decline in white-collar job openings is more driven by structural issues in the economy rather than artificial intelligence technology taking people’s jobs. 
“We know for a fact that it’s not AI,” said Alí Bustamante, an economist and director at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank.

Indeed’s Stahle agreed: “This is more of an economic story and less of an AI disruption story, at least so far.”

Artificial intelligence is still in early stages

There are a few reasons AI is not behind the declining job creation in white-collar sectors, according to economists.
For one, the decline in job creation has been happening for years, Bustamante said. In that timeframe, AI technology “was pretty awful,” he said.
What’s more, the technology is even now still in early stages, to the point where the software cannot execute key skills without human intervention, said Stahle.

A 2024 report by Indeed researchers found that of the more than 2,800 unique work skills identified, none are “very likely” to be replaced by generative artificial intelligence. GenAI creates content like text or images based on existing data.
Across five scenarios — “very unlikely,” “unlikely,” “possible,” “likely” and “very likely” — about 68.7% of skills were either “very unlikely” or “unlikely” to be replaced by GenAI technology, the site found. 
“We might get to a point where they do, but right now, that’s not necessarily looking like it’s a big factor,” Stahle said. 

‘Jobs are going to transform’

While AI has yet to replace human workers, there may come a time where the technology does disrupt the labor force. 
“Certainly, jobs are going to transform,” Stahle said. “I’m not going to downplay the potential impacts of AI.”
Stahle said that openings for consulting jobs focused on implementing generative AI have been rising. Over the past year, management consulting roles with AI language accounted for 12.4% of GenAI postings, showing signs of growing demand, per a February report by Indeed.

A separate report by the World Economic Forum in January forecasts that by 2030, the new technology will create 170 million new jobs, or 14% of the current total employment.
However, that growth could be offset by the decline in existing roles. The report cites that about 92 million jobs, or 8% of the current total employment, could be displaced by AI technology.
For knowledge-based workers whose skills may overlap with AI, consider investing in developing skills on how to use AI technology to stay ahead, Stahle said. More

Pressure from President Donald Trump for an interest-rate cut is ramping up.
Still, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates when it meets next week, or even in July.
For consumers hoping their borrowing costs will ease, they may be better off if the Fed sticks to its current plan, experts say.

Ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, tensions are escalating between the White House and the central bank, with consumers seemingly caught in the crossfire.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “numbskull” for not lowering interest rates already.

Trump has previously said the central bank should cut interest rates by a full percentage point. “Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday.
Vice President JD Vance echoed the president’s message in a social media post Wednesday on X, after a key inflation reading came in slightly better than expected.
“The president has been saying this for a while, but it’s even more clear: the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice,” Vance wrote.

The president has argued that maintaining a fed funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower rates. The Fed’s benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on almost all of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day.
Still, so far, Trump’s comments have had no impact and experts say the Fed is likely to hold its benchmark steady again when it meets next week — even as the political pressure to slash rates ramps up significantly.

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Since December, the federal funds rate has been in a target range of between 4.25%-4.5% and futures market pricing is implying virtually no chance of an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.
In prepared remarks last month, Powell said that the federal funds rate is likely to stay higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux. He has also said repeatedly that politics will not play a role in the Fed’s policy decisions.
But Trump, who nominated Powell to head of the nation’s central bank in 2018, has publicly berated the Fed’s decision-making. 

‘The idea of lower interest rates is often romanticized’

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Craig Hudson | Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

As it stands, market pricing indicates the Fed is unlikely to consider further interest rate cuts until at least September. Once the fed funds rate comes down, consumers could see their borrowing costs start to fall as well, which some may consider a welcome change.
“The idea of lower interest rates is often romanticized from the borrowers’ perspective,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.
“The reason for lower rates is what really matters,” McBride said. “We want the fed to be cutting rates because inflationary pressures are receding.”
For now, “inflation is still higher than desired,” he added.
The risk is that reducing rates too soon could halt or reverse progress on tamping down inflation, according to Mark Higgins, senior vice president at Index Fund Advisors and author of “Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future.”
“Now you have a situation where Trump is willing to pressure the Fed to lower rates while they have less flexibility to do that,” he said. “They have to keep rates higher for longer to extinguish inflation.”

Despite the softer-than-expected inflation data, central bank officials have said that they will wait until there’s more clarity about Trump’s tariff agenda before they consider lowering rates again.
The White House has said that tariffs will not cause runaway inflation, with the expectation that foreign producers would absorb much of the costs themselves. However, many economists believe that the full effect from tariffs could show up later in the summer as surplus inventories draw down.
For consumers waiting for borrowing costs to ease, they may be better off of the Fed sticks to its current monetary policy, according to Higgins.
“There’s this temptation to move fast and that is counterproductive,” Higgins said. “If the Fed prematurely lowers rates, it’s going to allow inflation to reignite and then they will have to raise rates again.”
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The Senate confirmed former Missouri Congressman Billy Long as the next IRS Commissioner.
Long’s confirmation comes amid sweeping IRS cuts, which could impact taxpayer service, technology and enforcement.
Republicans also aim to pass President Donald Trump’s big beautiful bill, which could add to the agency’s administrative work.

Former Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., nominee to be commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service, testifies during his Senate Finance Committee confirmation hearing in Dirksen building on Tuesday, May 20, 2025.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

The Senate on Thursday confirmed Billy Long as the next IRS Commissioner, which could mark a shift for taxpayers amid sweeping agency cuts.
Picked by President Donald Trump, the former Missouri Congressman’s nomination received mixed support from Washington and the tax community. But Senate Republicans confirmed Long via a party-line vote.

During the confirmation process, Long faced Democratic scrutiny over Trump loyalties and ties to dubious tax credits, among other questions, which he addressed during a May Senate Finance Committee hearing and written testimony. 
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When asked about Trump’s power over the agency during the May Senate hearing, Long said: “The IRS will not, should not be politicized on my watch.”
In written testimony, Long said he would “follow the law” when asked for specifics about how he would respond to political favor requests from Trump.
“The confirmation process was pretty controversial,” said Carl Tobias, law professor at University of Richmond’s School of Law.

But it’s currently unclear what Long as IRS Commissioner will mean for taxpayers, he said.

IRS cuts will have ‘significant impacts’

Long’s confirmation comes amid widespread IRS cuts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
The hiring freeze, deferred resignation programs and reductions in force “will have significant impacts” on IRS operations, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, or TIGTA, said in a June 6 report.
A separate TIGTA report from May found the agency had lost nearly one-third of its so-called revenue agents, who conduct audits, as of March 2025.

Closing the ‘tax gap’

The “tax gap” — federal levies incurred but not paid voluntarily on time — was estimated at $696 billion for tax year 2022, according to the latest IRS data.
When asked about the tax gap, Long answered in written testimony: “My goal is to modernize and streamline the IRS, so we are collecting the maximum amount owed each year.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s fiscal 2026 budget request calls for a 37% reduction in IRS spending, including staffing and technology cuts. These reductions could impact revenue collections, according to a Budget Lab at Yale analysis.
In a May House Appropriations subcommittee hearing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “collections” were among his IRS priorities. He said “smarter IT” and the “AI boom” could help meet revenue goals.

In 2022, Congress approved nearly $80 billion in IRS funding, with more than half earmarked for enforcement of corporate and high-net-worth tax dodgers. That funding has since been targeted by Republicans.
As the agency faces cuts, it could also soon see more administrative work once Republicans enact sweeping tax changes via Trump’s big beautiful spending bill.
For example, one provision would require precertification of each qualifying child for filers claiming the earned income tax credit. This could be challenging amid staffing cuts, experts say. More

The Education Department planned for the Treasury Department to help manage the country’s student loan portfolio, court documents show.
President Donald Trump said in March that the Small Business Administration would take over the debt.

The U.S. Department of Education headquarters is seen on March 06, 2025 in Washington, DC. 
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of Education planned for the Treasury Department to take a hand in managing the country’s $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio, recent court documents show.
“The Department had been negotiating a memorandum of understanding with the Treasury Department regarding student loan management,” Rachel Oglesby, the chief of staff at the Education Dept., said in a court declaration filed late on Tuesday.

The agreement involved moving nine Education Dept. employees from the agency’s Federal Student Aid Default Collections Unit to Treasury “to discuss collections activities,” a spokesperson for the Education Department told CNBC.
Education Department plans with the Treasury Department are now on hold after U.S. District Judge Myong Joun in Boston blocked the Trump administration on May 22 from its efforts to dismantle the Education Department.
Joun ordered the department to rehire the more than 1,300 employees affected by mass layoffs in March, and blocked the department from transferring student loans to the Small Business Administration.
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Experts say the Treasury talks are more evidence that the Trump administration hopes to reduce the role of the Education Department.

President Donald Trump said on March 21 that the Small Business Administration, instead of the Education Department, would handle the country’s debt.
“They’re all set for it,” the president said of the SBA, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office. “They’re waiting for it.”

Loan transfer to any other agency requires Congress

At the time of Trump’s announcement that student loans would move to the SBA, experts had said the next most logical agency would have been Treasury, since it already plays a role in collecting past-due debts from Americans through the Treasury Offset Program.
Still, financial aid expert Mark Kantrowitz pointed out that The Higher Education Act of 1965 is “very clear” that the Education Department’s Federal Student Aid office is “responsible for student loans.”
“It will require an act of Congress,” Kantrowitz said, to move the loans to either the SBA or Treasury.
Consumer advocates express worries that the mass transfer of accounts to another agency could trigger errors, or compromise borrowers’ privacy. They also raised concerns about how a change in agency might affect unique student loan protections, and programs such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness.
More than 42 million Americans hold federal student loans. More

Social Security beneficiaries may see a 2.5% increase to their monthly checks in 2026, based on new government inflation data released Wednesday.
Those estimates may be subject to change, since there are four more months of data before the official cost-of-living adjustment for next year is announced.
Here’s what experts are watching.

Sdi Productions | E+ | Getty Images

Millions of Social Security beneficiaries received a 2.5% boost to their benefits in 2025, thanks to an annual cost-of-living adjustment that went into effect in January.
In 2026, Social Security checks may go up by the same amount — 2.5% — based on the latest government inflation data, according to new estimates from both The Senior Citizens League and Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst.

That is up from the 2.4% increase for 2026 that those sources forecast last month. A 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment would be “about average,” according to Johnson.

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is an annual change to benefits aimed at helping to ensure monthly checks keep pace with inflation.
The COLA for the following year is calculated based on third-quarter inflation data. The official change is typically announced by the Social Security Administration in October.
With four more months of data yet to come before that calculation, the new estimate for the Social Security COLA for 2026 is subject to change.
The COLA may move higher if President Donald Trump’s tariff policies prompt inflation and consumer prices to increase, according to Johnson.

Broadly, the consumer price index rose less than had been expected in May, with an annual inflation rate of 2.4%, showing limited impact from Trump’s tariff policies.

The measure used to calculate the Social Security COLA — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W — is up 2.2% over the past 12 months, according to the May data.
While that inflation rate is lower than the 2.5% COLA for 2025, a Senior Citizens League survey finds 80% of seniors feel inflation in 2024 was more than 3% based on their expenses.
As the Trump administration has reduced the size of the federal workforce, that has also led to changes in the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics assesses inflation. The government agency has restricted data collection and turned to models that help fill in incomplete data.
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The Senior Citizens League has raised concerns that those changes may negatively influence the accuracy of the annual Social Security COLA calculations.
“Inaccurate or unreliable data in the CPI dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors receive a COLA that’s lower than actual inflation, which can cost seniors thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement,” Shannon Benton, executive director at The Senior Citizens League, said in a statement.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

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Republicans’ tax and spending bill includes a new savings account for children that comes with a $1,000 deposit from the federal government.
Earnings in “Trump Accounts” grow tax-deferred, and qualified withdrawals are taxed at the long-term capital-gains rate.
Experts weigh in on how the measure stacks up against other tax-advantaged savings plans.

President Donald Trump’s proposal for a new savings account for children with a one-time deposit of $1,000 from the federal government just got an important stamp of approval.
At the “Invest America” roundtable at the White House this week, several top CEOs, including Michael Dell and Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon, expressed support for “Trump Accounts,” which are part of the landmark Republican-backed “big beautiful bill” moving through Congress. The executives committed to contributing to the accounts of their employees’ children, and, in Dell’s case, matching the government’s seed money “dollar for dollar.”

Still, policy experts and financial advisors question whether the provision is the most effective way to save on behalf of your child.

How ‘Trump Accounts’ would work

Under the House measure, Trump Accounts — previously known as “Money Accounts for Growth and Advancement” or “MAGA Accounts” — can later be used for education expenses or credentials, the down payment on a first home or as capital to start a small business. Earnings grow tax-deferred, and qualified withdrawals are taxed at the long-term capital-gains rate.
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Trump’s massive tax and spending bill still faces a battle in the Senate, but if it passes as drafted, parents and others will be able to contribute up to $5,000 a year to a child’s Trump Account. The balance would be invested in a diversified fund that tracks a U.S.-stock index.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who spearheaded the effort, told CNBC in May that the accounts give children “the ability to accumulate wealth, which is transformational.”

“This will afford a generation of children the chance to experience the miracle of compounded growth and set them on a course for prosperity from the very beginning,” the White House also said in a statement Monday.

Biggest Trump Account benefit: $1,000 bonus

Armand Burger | E+ | Getty Images

Some experts say the biggest benefit of Trump Accounts is the seed money for all children born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Jan. 1, 2029, funded by the Department of the Treasury.
There are no income requirements. To be eligible, the child must be a U.S. citizen and both parents must have Social Security numbers.
Although some states, including Connecticut and Colorado, already offer a type of “baby bonds” program for parents, Trump Accounts — along with a bigger child tax credit proposed in the budget bill and potential employer-sponsored matching funds — “could certainly help a lot of families at a lot of different income levels,” Sam Taube, NerdWallet’s lead investing writer, recently told CNBC.
Invested in a broad equity index fund for 20 years, a $1,000 government grant for newborns could grow to an average $8,000, according to a March report from the Milken Institute. “If the policy also permitted a tax-deductible match by employers of the children’s parents, such initial matches would double an account’s value,” researchers wrote.

Trump Accounts are expensive, ‘needlessly complex’

Depositing $1,000 into an account “is a good idea, but with a critically important caveat,” said Mark Higgins, senior vice president at Index Fund Advisors and author of “Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future.”
With Trump Accounts, “the costs are the key,” he said: “If it keeps adding to the deficit, it is not sustainable.” (By some accounts, the program could cost more than $3 billion a year.)
“The biggest challenge for this country right now is that we have lived beyond our means,” he said. “Over the last 230 years, Congress has passed countless programs like this, which provide short-term benefits that are almost invariably dwarfed by the long-term costs.”

Universal savings accounts, which allow for more flexibility, would be a better proposal than the House provision, said Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the Cato Institute, a public policy think tank.
Universal savings accounts have had bipartisan support going back as far as the Clinton administration, and without the initial deposit, would come a much lower cost. They have also been successfully implemented in other countries, including Canada and the United Kingdom, according to the Tax Foundation.
Further, Trump Accounts are “overly restricted and needlessly complex,” Michel said. “A simpler system is a better way to get people to save.”
With a universal savings account, individuals could contribute up to $10,000 of after-tax income a year and withdraw the funds tax-free at any time for any purpose, according to Michel.
“It’s the flexibility that entices people,” he said. “Maybe you want to use that money to start or expand a business or buy a house or an investment property — let people choose what’s best for their lives.”

‘The 529 college savings plan is superior’

Another alternative is a tapping 529 college savings plan, which nearly every state offers.
These 529 plans have much higher contribution limits, earnings grow on a tax-advantaged basis, and when a child withdraws the money, it is tax-free if the funds are used for qualified education expenses. This year, individuals can gift up to $19,000 to a 529, or up to $38,000 if you’re married and file taxes jointly, per child without those contributions counting toward your lifetime gift tax exemption.
Although there are more limitations on what 529 funds can be applied to compared to Trump Accounts, restrictions have loosened in recent years to include continuing education classes, apprenticeship programs and student loan payments.

“For most parents, like myself with teens, the 529 college savings plan is superior if you’re focused on paying for higher education because of the federal tax-free growth,” Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California, recently told CNBC.
“Also, now, the 529 is becoming more flexible with its’ ability to have unused funds rolled into a Roth IRA in the future for retirement,” said Sun, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council. 
As of 2024, families can roll over unused 529 funds to the account beneficiary’s Roth individual retirement account, without triggering income taxes or penalties, so long as they meet certain requirements.
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The headline unemployment rate for May stayed at 4.2%, flat from the month prior, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. 
While the unemployment rate in the U.S. is still fairly low, data shows it’s not uncommon to see individuals job hunting for extended periods of time. 
Several data points beyond the headline job market numbers are showing deeper issues within the market, economists say. 

Job seekers at a job fair hosted by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority to support federal workers looking for new career opportunities, at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, on April 25, 2025.
Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images

While the unemployment rate in the U.S. is still fairly low, data shows it’s not uncommon to see individuals job hunting for extended periods of time.
The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

However, over the past six months, it’s become “drastically harder to find a job,” whether you’re entering the job market for the first time or you’ve been looking for a while, according to Alí Bustamante, an economist and director at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank.
“It’s not that folks are losing their jobs,” Bustamante said. “It’s just that businesses are much more reticent to hire people, to make investments, because they just feel this very uncertain economic climate.”
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Bustamante and other economists say several data points beyond the headline job market numbers — the job-finding and quits rates, the share of workers who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more, a broader rate of unemployment and the state of so-called “white collar” jobs — showcase deeper issues within the labor market.
“Employers aren’t hiring, they’re not firing. People aren’t leaving their jobs, and there’s just fewer opportunities right now,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, a job search site.

As career coach Mandi Woodruff-Santos put it during a recent interview with CNBC: “The job market is kind of trash right now.”
Here’s what’s happening with unemployed Americans, in five charts.

Job-finding, quits and hires are down

The job-finding rate reflects the share of unemployed workers who successfully found a job, Stahle said. Over the past few years, the job-finding rate for unemployment has been declining, he said. 
In other words, people who are looking for work are not finding jobs, Stahle said.

On the flip side, the quits rate reflects the share of employees who have left their jobs in a given month, Stahle said. That figure has also been declining, meaning people are not voluntarily leaving their jobs.
The quits rate was at 2.0% in April, little changed from 2.1% in March, both numbers seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of quits was down by 220,000 over the year.
Hiring activity has also been down in recent years. The rate of hires was at 3.5% in April, little changed from 3.4% in March, both seasonally adjusted, per the JOLTs report.
As people stay put in their jobs and employers are reluctant to hire, such factors create a “low hiring, low firing” environment, Stahle said.

Many workers are job hunting for at least 27 weeks

The number of long-term unemployed workers dropped in the bureau’s latest report. However, not only is the rate still high, the recent drop could also be a red flag, Bustamente said.
The share of unemployed workers facing long-term unemployment — those who have been jobless for at least 27 weeks — was a seasonally adjusted 20.4% in May, according to the bureau’s latest data. That’s down from a seasonally adjusted 23.5% in April.

But the recent decline may not be an improvement. It could be signaling that a large number of long-term unemployed workers left the labor force altogether, he said. 
Considering that 139,000 jobs were added in May and about 218,000 workers are no longer in the unemployment cohort, there’s a significant gap of workers who were unemployed but did not secure new roles, Bustamante said.
What’s more, the number of people not in the labor force jumped by 622,000 in May.
“All the data point to long-term unemployment declining because people left the labor force,” Bustamante said.

A broader unemployment rate is high

While the headline unemployment rate — also known as the U-3 rate — has remained steady, another measure shows a clearer picture of what’s happening with unemployed workers still looking for jobs, experts say.
The U-6 rate includes the total number of unemployed workers, plus all marginally attached workers, and the total employed part time for economic reasons.

Marginally attached workers are those who are neither working nor looking for a job — but indicate that they want and are available for work, and looked for a new role recently. There’s a subset of this group called discouraged workers, or those who are not currently looking for a job due to labor-market reasons. 
People employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but settled for a part-time schedule. 
As of the latest BLS data, the U-6 rate remained unchanged from April at 7.8%.
This data tells us that more and more Americans have either stopped looking for work out of labor-market frustrations, or are picking up part-time gigs to get by financially, experts say.

‘White collar’ industries contract; other sectors grow

When looking at professional and business services — the industry that represents “white collar,” and middle and upper-class, educated workers — there hasn’t been much hiring, experts say. 
Fields such as marketing, software development, data analytics and data science have far fewer opportunities now than they did before the pandemic, Stahle said.

On the other hand, industries such as health care, construction and manufacturing have seen consistent job growth. Nearly half of the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000 jobs in May, the bureau found.
“There’s been a divergence in opportunity,” Stahle said. “Your experience with the labor market is going to depend largely on the type of work it is you’re doing.” More