Markus Andrews

Amid heightened uncertainty stemming from the trade war, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark short-term borrowing rate steady at its meeting this week.
From credit cards and mortgage rates to auto loans and savings accounts, all sorts of consumer borrowing costs are impacted by Fed moves, even a decision to keep rates unchanged.

On the heels of a stronger-than-expected jobs report and elevated inflation readings, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting this week — despite pressure from President Donald Trump.
“Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!” Trump said in a Truth Social post Friday.

As an independent agency, the central bank has always operated autonomously from the White House. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that monetary policy decisions are completely separate from politics. At the same time, the president’s new trade policies are a barrier to cutting rates, in part because economists expect the new tariffs could lead to a widespread rise in prices that complicate inflation forecasts.
To be sure, many Americans are getting squeezed by high prices and high borrowing costs, while the potential inflation impacts from a costly trade war weigh heavily on household budgets.
“Consumers are always the ones who pay the price,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James.
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The federal funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects many of the borrowing and savings rates consumers see every day.

“Uncertainty rules amid a trade war and the ever-changing landscape of tariffs,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “But with the hard data on consumer spending and employment still hanging in there, the Fed will remain firmly planted on the sidelines.”
Markets now widely expect the Fed to wait to cut rates until July, with two or three more reductions to follow by the end of the year.
Once the federal funds rate comes down, borrowing costs could decrease across a variety of consumer debt, such as auto loans, credit cards and mortgage rates, making it easier to access cheaper money. 
Here’s a breakdown of how it works.

Credit cards

Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.
For the most part, the average annual percentage rate has hovered just over 20% this year, according to Bankrate, not far from last year’s all-time high. 
The Fed holding steady isn’t the only thing keeping credit card rates high. “Banks are nervous about all of the uncertainty in the economy and what it means for consumers,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.
“When that happens, banks try to minimize risk as much as possible, and one of the ways they do that is to raise interest rates on credit cards,” he said.

Credit card debt continues to be a pain point for consumers struggling to keep up with high prices. Total credit card debt and average balances are also at record highs.

Mortgages

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, concerns about the direction of the economic policy and Trump’s tariff plans have been a drag on rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now 6.81%, down from 7.04% at the beginning of the year, according to Bankrate. But for potential home buyers, that’s not enough of a decline to give the housing market a boost.
“Unfortunately for those shopping for a home this summer, rates are likely to stay in or around that range in the near future,” Schulz said.

Auto loans

Although auto loan rates have seen little change, car payments have gone up because prices are rising, while Trump’s 25% tariffs of imported vehicles adds more pressure.
Currently, the average rate on a five-year new car loan is 7.33%, down from 7.53% in January, according to Bankrate.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are fixed for the life of the loan, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic turmoil.
Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note and aren’t likely to change much. Undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24.
Although borrowers with existing federal student debt balances won’t see their rates change, many are now facing other headwinds and fewer federal loan forgiveness options.

Savings

On the upside, top-yielding online savings accounts still offer above-average returns and currently pay as much as 4.5%, according to Bankrate. While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate — so holding that rate unchanged has kept savings rates elevated, for now.
“For consumers, oftentimes the best way to protect your finances in times of uncertainty is to double-down on boosting emergency savings and eliminating high interest rate debt,” said Bankrate’s McBride. “This builds a buffer in the event of an income disruption or unanticipated expenses and insulates you from costly borrowing.”
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Americans may be able to get digital access to their Social Security numbers starting this summer.
The Social Security Administration is rolling out the new form of identification as an alternative to paper Social Security cards.
Digital access could be a help when replacing your Social Security card if it’s lost or stolen.

Richcano | E+ | Getty Images

For many Americans, a Social Security number is the first form of identification they receive, mailed as a paper card a few weeks after birth.
Now, the Social Security Administration is looking to give that form of ID an update by enabling secure digital access to Social Security numbers that will provide an alternative to the traditional Social Security card. Experts are cautiously optimistic about the idea, but have some security concerns.

The new digital feature will allow individuals who have either forgotten their Social Security number or who have lost their Social Security cards to access their personal number online through the agency’s My Social Security website. They will also be able to access their Social Security numbers through digital devices and display them as identification for “reasons other than handling Social Security matters,” according to the agency.
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With the new effort, the Social Security Administration aims to reduce the inconveniences caused by lost or stolen cards, which currently requires individuals to apply for replacements either online or in person.
“We believe that this modern approach will meet the needs of our constituents in a more efficient manner,” Social Security Administration acting commissioner Lee Dudek said in a statement.
The agency declined to provide more details the rollout, which is scheduled to become available early this summer.

Experts worry about access, ID theft protections

Experts are cautiously optimistic about the change.
“Generally, anything that is a new avenue for accessing your account or in an interaction with Social Security is a good thing, so long as it’s easy and secure,” said Richard Fiesta, executive director at the Alliance for Retired Americans.
However, the risk is that some individuals, particularly those who are older or disabled, may be left without access if they are not as tech savvy and have difficulty using the internet or mobile phones, he said.
My Social Security is “not the most customer friendly website,” Fiesta said, despite efforts to improve it over the years.

The move toward digital Social Security identification is “certainly a step in the right direction,” said Eva Velasquez, CEO of the Identity Theft Resource Center.
If implemented properly, the digital Social Security numbers may provide more security than paper cards, she said.
“But it really doesn’t solve the problem of identity misuse,” Velasquez said.
Every adult’s Social Security number has likely already been breached, according to Velasquez. The size of the 2024 National Public Data breach prompted some experts to speculate every American could have been affected. The 2017 Equifax breach was estimated to have affected roughly half the U.S. population.
The new process will raise questions as to how to protect both the Social Security numbers and the devices on which they are accessed, she said.

Ultimately, the U.S. in the future will likely move toward a federated identity system, where a user’s identity can be verified with biometric data like fingerprints and facial recognition that is linked across multiple systems, said Cliff Steinhauer, director of information security and engagement at The National Cybersecurity Alliance.
“There’s going to be a future where there’s a clean internet, where everyone that uses it has authenticated with this federated, proven identity so that nobody can pretend to be anybody else,” Steinhauer said.
The Social Security Administration’s move is a first step toward digital identification, though it does not appear to include biometric authentication, he said.
Because there will be risk for fraud, it will be important for the Social Security Administration to make sure its systems are properly protected, Steinhauer said. There should also be phishing-resistant authentication installed to ensure that only authorized individuals access the accounts, he said.
It will be important for individuals to verify that any messages that allegedly come from the Social Security Administration do, in fact, take them to a verified Social Security website.
Any messages the agency sends out, such as a reminder to log in and check an account, could be copied for phishing purposes, Steinhauer said. More

As the U.S. Department of Education restarts collections on federal student loans that are in default, some student loan borrowers are seeing an instant hit to their credit scores, according to a new report by TransUnion.
Borrowers who had excellent credit may see their scores tank by as much as 175 points.
“Consumers may find themselves shocked by the dramatic and immediate impact that a default can have,” TransUnion’s Joshua Trumbull said.

As of Monday, the U.S. Department of Education is restarting “involuntary collections” on federal student loans that are in default, which may seriously damage the credit scores of millions of borrowers.
Student loan collections efforts have largely been on pause since the pandemic began in March 2020. A new analysis by TransUnion found that consumers who faced default in recent months have seen their credit scores fall by 63 points, on average. For super prime borrowers — or those with credit scores above 780 — who were seriously delinquent, scores sank as much as 175 points. Credit scores typically range between 300 and 850.

“Consumers may find themselves shocked by the dramatic and immediate impact that a default can have on their credit scores,” Joshua Trumbull, senior vice president and head of consumer lending at TransUnion, said in a statement.
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The credit score implications worsen for borrowers with better scores, research shows. “The bigger they are, the harder they fall,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.
Because borrowers in less risky credit tiers typically have fewer dings on their credit, any derogatory mark “has the potential to have a significant and jarring impact,” according to TransUnion. In general, the higher your credit score, the better off you are when it comes to getting a loan. 
“Somebody with excellent credit could see a drop of 100 points or more — that’s massive,” Rossman said. “That’s going to make it hard to even get credit and if you do, you will face a sharply higher interest rates on everything from mortgages to car loans.”

9 million face ‘substantial’ score drops, Fed finds

As collection activity resumes, the federal government can seize some or all of certain federal payments including tax refunds and Social Security benefits as well as withhold a portion of borrowers’ paychecks.
“Borrowers who don’t make payments on time will see their credit scores go down, and in some cases their wages automatically garnished,” U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed last month.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York cautioned in a March report that student loan borrowers who are late on their payments could see their credit scores sink by as much as 171 points. 
Initially, those borrowers benefitted from the pandemic-era forbearance on federal student loans, which marked all delinquent loans as current. Median credit scores for student loan borrowers rose by 11 points between the end of 2019 to the end of 2020, the Fed researchers found. However, that relief period officially ended on Sept. 30, 2024.
“We expect to see more than nine million student loan borrowers face substantial declines in credit standing over the first quarter of 2025,” the Fed researchers wrote in a blog post.
“Although some of these borrowers may be able to cure their delinquencies,” the Fed researchers said, “the damage to their credit standing will have already been done and will remain on their credit reports for seven years.”
Lower credit scores could result in reduced credit limits, higher interest rates for new loans and overall lower credit access, the researchers also said.

Both VantageScore and FICO reported a drop in average scores starting in February as early- and late-stage credit delinquencies rose sharply, driven by the resumption of student loan reporting. Borrowers who are late on their payments could see their credit scores tank by as much as 129 points, VantageScore reported at the time.
Currently, around 42 million Americans hold federal student loans and roughly 5.3 million borrowers are in default, according to the Education Department. Another 4 million borrowers are in “late-stage delinquency,” or over 90 days past due on payments.
One in five student loan borrowers were reported as being over 90 days past due by the end of February, the data from TransUnion showed.
“It’s surprising how many people who should be paying have been reported as not paying,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion, and those “delinquencies will likely tick higher.”
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Berkshire Hathaway shares have skyrocketed 5,502,284% since 1965.
By comparison, the broad S&P 500 has risen 39,054% during that time period.

Warren Buffett and Greg Abel walk through the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, on May 3, 2025.
David A. Grogen | CNBC

When Warren Buffett relinquishes the CEO title at Berkshire Hathaway, he will leave investors with decades of outsized returns.
Buffett shocked the investing world on Saturday with a surprise announcement that he intends to step down from the chief executive post by year-end after six decades. Berkshire’s board approved his decision, with the billionaire continuing his other role as chairman. He will pass the CEO baton to designated successor Greg Abel.

The stock’s performance shows a legacy of moves under Buffett that has allowed Berkshire’s stock to run circles around the broader market — even when including dividends. In other words, the proof is in the pudding.
To be exact, Berkshire shares have skyrocketed 5,502,284% between when Buffett took over what was then a failing textile company in 1965 and the end of 2024, according to the company’s most recent annual report. By comparison, the broad S&P 500 has risen 39,054% during that period with dividends.
Berkshire’s monster figure equates to a compounded annual return of 19.9%. That is nearly double the 10.4% recorded by the S&P 500.

Berkshire Hathaway returns vs. S&P 500

Gauges of performance between 1965 and 2024
Berkshire per-share market value change (%)
S&P 500 with dividends (%)

Compounded annual gain
19.9
10.4

Overall gain
5,502,284
39,054

Source: Berkshire Hathaway

That outperformance has been driven by some years where Berkshire’s stock left the broader market in the dust. In 1998, for example, Berkshire surged 52.2% while the S&P 500 advanced 28.6%. Berkshire shares soared 129.3% in 1976, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 23.6% gain.
In other years, Berkshire was able to side-step declines that dragged on the market. As technology stocks led a market meltdown that pulled the S&P 500 down 18.1% in 2022, Berkshire was able to end the year with a 4% increase. In 1981, while the S&P 500 slid 5%, the Nebraska-based conglomerate rallied 31.8%.

There were some periods when Berkshire lagged. Most recently, as the S&P 500 rebounded 26.3% in 2023, the company’s stock added just 15.8%. Berkshire finished 2020 higher by 2.4%, underperforming the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points.
Still, Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania, noted Berkshire’s ability to outperform the S&P 500 by nearly 2% over the past decade.
“For a value-oriented investor to be above the S&P 500 over the last 10 years — which have been one of, if not the, most difficult decade for value investors in the 100 years — is absolutely extraordinary,” Siegel told CNBC on Monday morning. “I don’t think any value investor can touch him.”
Buffett is poised to end what should be his final year as CEO on a high note. Class A shares of Berkshire have climbed nearly 19% in 2025 and hit an all-time high ahead of the annual meeting on Friday. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 3% year to date.

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Class A Berkshire shares vs. S&P 500

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The U.S. Department of Education will resume collecting on defaulted student loans on Monday.
More than 5 million borrowers are currently in default, and that total could swell to roughly 10 million borrowers within a few months, according to the Trump administration.
The federal government has extraordinary collection powers on its student loans and it can seize borrowers’ tax refunds, paychecks and Social Security retirement and disability benefits.

A person walks on campus at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, U.S. March 26, 2025. 
Hannah Beier | Reuters

Borrowers face plan changes, long waits for help

Collection activity on federal student loans has mostly been paused for half a decade. During that period, there have been sweeping changes and disruptions to the lending system.

Millions of borrowers who signed up for the Biden administration’s new repayment plan, known as SAVE, were caught in limbo after GOP-led lawsuits managed to get the plan blocked in the summer of last year. Many of those borrowers will now have to switch out of a Biden-era payment pause and into another repayment plan that will spike their monthly bill.
In recent months, the Trump administration has eliminated the forgiveness provision from some student loan repayment plans.

It also terminated staff at the Education Department, including many of the people who helped assist borrowers. Now some student loan borrowers report waiting hours on the phone before being able to reach someone about their debt. (The Trump administration has told defaulted borrowers to contact the department for options on getting current.)
“The timing of the layoffs is unfortunate, given the need for borrowers to get help,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz, who added that he’s heard from people stuck waiting on hold as long as eight hours to speak with someone at the department or their loan servicer.

Borrowers in default may see credit scores decline

Restarting collections while the federal student loan system is facing so much uncertainty “will further fan the flames of economic chaos for working families across this country,” said Mike Pierce, the executive director of the Student Borrower Protection Center.
In addition to garnished paychecks and benefits, the millions of borrowers who are already late on their payments may see their credit scores tank by as much as 129 points as the Education Department ramps up collection activity, VantageScore recently wrote.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve predicted in March that some people with a delinquency could see their scores fall by as much as 171 points. Credit scores typically range from 300 to 850, with around 670 and higher considered good.
Lower credit scores can lead to higher borrowing costs on consumer loans such as mortgages, car loans and credit cards.

“We’ve been seeing clients with delinquent accounts who reached out after noticing a drop in their credit scores,” said Carolina Rodriguez, director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York.
She said one client hasn’t made a payment on her student debt since last year because she can’t afford her $200 monthly bill.
“She’s making $45,000 and living in New York City,” Rodriguez said. “Every month, she’s in the red.” More

Social Security beneficiaries may owe the agency if they received too much money in benefits.
The Social Security Administration is moving toward a 50% default withholding rate from checks of certain affected beneficiaries to recover those sums.
Losing half of benefit income could be financially “devastating” for those affected, some experts say.

Fertnig | E+ | Getty Images

Just weeks after announcing a 100% withholding rate on new overpayments of benefits, the Social Security Administration has slashed the rate down to 50% for certain beneficiaries.
Yet that clawback on monthly benefit checks may still cause a financial burden for individuals who are affected, experts say.

For new overpayment notices sent on or after April 25, the 50% default withholding rate will apply to so-called Title II benefits, which include retirement, survivors and disability insurance, according to an emergency message released by the Social Security Administration.
The withholding rate for Supplemental Security Income benefits remains 10%.
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“Obviously, it’s better not to lose all of your income,” said Kate Lang, director of federal income security at Justice in Aging, a national organization focused on fighting senior poverty.
“But if you’re relying on your benefits to pay your rent or your mortgage and buy food, losing half of that income is going to be devastating and can still result in people becoming homeless,” Lang said.

How beneficiaries end up owing Social Security

Beneficiaries may owe the Social Security Administration money due to overpayments — when their monthly benefit checks are more than what they are owed. The erroneous payments can happen for a variety of reasons, such as if a beneficiary fails to report a change in their circumstances to the agency or if the agency does not process information promptly or enters errors in its data.
When the Social Security Administration determines a beneficiary has been overpaid, a notice is sent to request a full and immediate refund, according to the agency.
Beneficiaries typically have 90 days to request a lower rate of withholding, a reconsideration or waiver of recovery. If they do not make such a request within that 90-day window, the agency will withhold up to 50% of their benefits until the sum of the amount that was overpaid is fully recovered, according to the agency’s update.

The Social Security Administration had previously announced that it would increase the default withholding rate for overpayments to 100%. Under President Joe Biden’s administration, the default withholding rate had been dropped to 10% of a beneficiary’s monthly benefit or $10 — whichever was greater. Generally, the rate beneficiaries are subject to is based on the terms at the time they were notified.
“In the last 100 days, we’ve gone from as low as 10 [percent] to 100 and now to 50,” said Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans.

The 100% withholding rate was “ridiculously draconian and cruel,” Fiesta said. The Social Security Administration had said the change to that full recovery rate would generate about $7 billion in program savings in the next decade, based on estimates from the chief actuary.
Yet even with the default withholding rate cut in half, beneficiaries may still struggle financially.
“Losing 50% [of benefits] for a lot of people could put them into immediate economic hardship,” Fiesta said.
In most cases, it wasn’t the beneficiary’s fault that they were overpaid, Fiesta said. “They shouldn’t be put in a worse situation because of something they never caused in the first place,” he said.

‘A lot of discretion’ in negotiating repayment terms

While beneficiaries do have the ability to negotiate the payments, there is no guarantee they will be successful and the outcomes may vary, according to Lang.
“There are thousands of employees that individual beneficiaries are going to be dealing with to ask for a waiver or ask to negotiate a different repayment rate,” Lang said. “And those employees have a lot of discretion in what they decide.”
Beneficiaries who are dealing with overpayment issues also face long wait times to make an appointment to visit a Social Security Administration office, which can interfere with their ability to exercise the options available to them, she said.
The Social Security Administration did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

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The Texas Instruments Inc. logo is seen on scientific calculator packages in Tiskilwa, Illinois.
Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Investors with concerns about the risks facing the economy may want to add some stable income to their portfolio in the form of dividend-paying stocks.
To this end, Wall Street experts’ recommendations can help pick lucrative dividend stocks that have the ability to make consistent payments despite near-term pressures.  

Here are three dividend-paying stocks, highlighted by Wall Street’s top pros on TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.

AT&T

This week’s first dividend stock is telecom giant AT&T (T). The company recently reported first-quarter results, driven by strong postpaid phone and fiber net subscriber additions. The company retained its full-year guidance and stated that it plans to commence share buybacks in the second quarter, given that its net leverage target of net debt-to-adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization is in the 2.5-times range.
AT&T offers investors a quarterly dividend of $0.2775 per share. With an annualized dividend of $1.11 per share, AT&T stock offers a dividend yield of 4.0%.
In reaction to the company’s Q1 print, RBC Capital analyst Jonathan Atkin raised his price target for AT&T stock to $30 from $28 and reiterated a buy rating. The analyst noted that the company exceeded estimates even after excluding $100 million of one-time EBITDA benefits.
Atkin added that AT&T’s revenue surpassed expectations, thanks to the strength in both wireless and wireline businesses. Among other positives, the analyst noted that the company promptly addressed the slowdown seen in January and delivered robust postpaid phone net additions of 324,000, with gross additions growing 13% and helping to overcome higher churn.

“Management signaled confidence in its execution amidst a challenging environment by reiterating guidance and introducing a buyback program that commences in Q2,” said Atkin.
Atkin ranks No. 85 among more than 9,400 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 69% of the time, delivering an average return of 11.3%. See AT&T Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks.

Philip Morris International

We move to Philip Morris International (PM), a consumer goods company that is focused on transitioning completely to smoke-free alternatives from cigarettes. The company reported solid results for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong demand for its smoke-free products.
Philip Morris rewarded shareholders with a quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share. At an annualized dividend of $5.40 per share, PM stock offers a yield of nearly 3.2%.
Encouraged by the results, Stifel analyst Matthew Smith reaffirmed a buy rating on PM stock and increased the price target to $186 from $168, noting strong momentum across the board. The analyst said that three growth engines – smoke-free product mix, pricing and volume growth – boosted Philip Morris’ Q1 performance and drove a 10% rise in organic revenue, 340 basis points of gross margin expansion and 200 basis points of increase in operating profit margin.
“Each of these engines support durable growth in 2025 and beyond as smoke-free continues to increase as a portion of PMI’s portfolio, now over 40% of revenue and gross profit,” said Smith.
The analyst expects 170 basis points of operating profit margin expansion in 2025, driven by smoke-free products, including Iqos and Zyn. In particular, Smith noted that Zyn’s Q1 U.S. volumes benefited from robust demand and earlier-than-anticipated improvement in supply chain capacity. He now expects 824 million cans for 2025, reflecting a 42% growth. Also, Zyn’s capacity is expected to reach 900 million cans this year, supporting potential upside to his estimates, especially in the second half of the year when inventories are expected to normalize.
Smith ranks No. 642 among more than 9,400 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 64% of the time, delivering an average return of 15%. See Philip Morris Ownership Structure on TipRanks.

Texas Instruments

This week’s third dividend stock is Texas Instruments (TXN), a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing chips for several end markets. The company’s first-quarter earnings and revenue easily surpassed Wall Street’s estimates, reflecting strong demand for its analog chips despite the threat of tariffs. Also, TXN’s guidance for the June quarter was better than the consensus estimate.
Meanwhile, Texas Instruments pays a quarterly dividend of $1.36 per share. At an annualized dividend of $5.44 per share, TXN stock’s dividend yield stands at 3.3%.
Reacting to the strong Q1 results, Evercore analyst Mark Lipacis reiterated a buy rating on TXN stock with a price target of $248, saying, “We’re buyers of TXN post a beat and raise 1Q25 print.” He stated that TXN remains a top analog pick for Evercore.
Lipacis contended that while bears will argue that the upside to Texas Instruments’ Q1 results and Q2 2025 outlook were due to tariff-driven order pull-ins, his analysis shows that the company’s inventories have overcorrected in the supply chain. In fact, numerous checks by his firm indicate that many entities in the supply chain have now taken their inventories well below normal levels.
The analyst expects TXN to be early into the upward revision cycle, given that it was the first large-cap analog company to enter the inventory correction phase. He expects the company to deliver upside surprises through 2025 and into 2026. Additionally, he expects TXN stock to sustain a premium price-earnings multiple as it is exiting its capital expenditure cycle, which will drive its free cash flow per share higher from a trailing 12 months’ trough of $1 to $10.30 by 2027.
Lipacis ranks No. 69 among more than 9,400 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 58% of the time, delivering an average return of 20.4%. See Texas Instruments Technical Analysis on TipRanks. More

FILE PHOTO: A scientist holds a blood sample in a non-sterile polypropylene 2 ml collection tube as the Qiagen NV logo sits on display at the company’s headquarters in Hilden, Germany, on Friday, Aug. 22, 2014.
Jasper Juinen | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Company: Qiagen NV (QGEN)
Business: Qiagen NV is a holding company based in the Netherlands. The company provides “Sample to Insight” solutions that transform biological samples into molecular insights. These solutions integrate sample and assay technologies, bioinformatics and automation systems. Its sample technologies are used for isolating and preparing deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), ribonucleic acid (RNA) and proteins from blood or other liquids, tissue, plants or other materials. Its assay technologies make these biomolecules visible for analysis, such as identifying the genetic information of a pathogen or a gene mutation in a tumor. Its bioinformatics solutions interpret data to provide actionable insights. Qiagen’s automation platforms based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR), next-generation sequencing (NGS) and other technologies tie these together in molecular testing workflows from “Sample to Insight.”
Stock Market Value: $9.32B ($43.13 per share)

Stock chart icon

Qiagen NV in the past 12 months

Activist: Fivespan Partners, LP

Ownership: n/a
Average Cost: n/a
Activist Commentary: Fivespan Partners, LP is a San Francisco-based investment firm founded by Dylan Haggart and Sarah Coyne. Prior to Fivespan, Haggart and Coyne were partners at ValueAct Capital and most of the investment team is from ValueAct. Fivespan, named after the unique five-stone arched bridge in Haggart’s hometown, views itself as a bridge between the market and companies. The firm prefers behind-the-scenes, collaborative and amicable activism, but it would resort to a proxy fight if it had no other choice. We believe that the firm would look for board seats in situations where it thinks it could add real value, but we do not expect Fivespan to pursue board representation as often as ValueAct does (i.e, roughly 50% of core portfolio positions). Haggart certainly has experience as a public company director. He served as a director of Seagate (2018 to the present) and Fiserv (2022 to 2024), at which he has delivered stellar returns over his tenures of 44.45% and 64.68%, respectively, versus 17.36% and 4.98% for the Russell 2000. Additionally, Haggart was an advisor to Seagate going back as far as 2016, over which time the company returned about 222%. Fivespan looks for high quality, idiosyncratic businesses with good, strategic assets. The firm does not advocate for the sale of its portfolio companies as a primary activist strategy, but like companies that people want to own. Accordingly, many of the firm’s activist campaigns could end with a sale of the company, providing two paths to shareholder value. The fund is a drawdown structure that holds investments for at least three to five years, aims to have six to eight investments at a time and averages $100 million to $300 million in each investment.
What’s happening
Fivespan Partners has built a position in Qiagen NV and has engaged in conversations with management.
Behind the scenes
Qiagen is a Netherlands-incorporated life sciences tools firm, dual-listed in the U.S. and Germany. The company provides sample technologies to isolate and process DNA, RNA and proteins; assay technologies to prepare these biomolecules for analysis; and automation solutions to bring these processes together. The company has two primary end markets from which it derives a balanced share of its revenue: Molecular Diagnostics (health-care providers) and Life Sciences (pharma/biotech research and other lab applications).  It operates in an extremely attractive and growing industry with high returns on invested capital (ROIC) and margins. Qiagen specifically enjoys a leading market position, has a great brand reputation and favorably derives about 90% of its sales from recurring consumables revenue, with the remainder from the sale of its instruments and related services, a razor-razorblade model. Despite its dual-listing and European heritage, Qiagen’s chairman and CEO are based in the U.S., and it generated 52% of its FY24 sales in North America, 32% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and 16% in Asia.

Fivespan looks for high quality, idiosyncratic businesses with good, strategic assets, and Qiagen fits this thesis nicely – a high-quality health-care business in a growing industry with secular tailwinds. However, despite having a respected name and a strong market position, the company has struggled to create shareholder value post-Covid, delivering 1-, 3-, and 5-year returns of 1%, -6%, and 1%, respectively. While peers trade at around 15 times EV/EBITDA, and leaders like Danaher 20 times, Qiagen currently trades at around 13 times. This contrasts with the stock historically trading at a significant multiple to peers.
Management has done the hard things right: investing in R&D, listening to the customers, and protecting the company’s industry-leading brand, growing its topline at a 5.3% compound annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024. Now there is an opportunity to grow even faster and in a more focused manner. In an attempt to empire-build, Qiagen has lost sight of the core business, investing a lot in the diagnostics business and other ventures when the life sciences business has a superior return on invested capital. There are three levers to create shareholder value here. First, management should invest in and around its core business to accelerate growth. Moreover, they should not keep their plan a secret but communicate it better to the market. Second, Qiagen can be run a lot tighter, leaving room for margin expansion. Currently running at a 25% operating margin, a more disciplined approach could achieve operating margins upward of 30%. Third, Qiagen’s balance sheet could be optimized. Most of its peers have far more leverage and should, due to the recurring nature of the business, yet the company has $1.15 billion of cash and short-term investments, $1.39 billion of debt and no good acquisition targets on the horizon. By levering up, Qiagen could fund additional investments in its core business and buy back some of its own stock at attractive prices ahead of growth and margin improvements. It is not often that there are opportunities for both revenue growth and margin expansion at the same time. When you have a situation like that, it certainly makes sense to buy back your own shares ahead of it.
Based on its activist philosophies, we would expect that Fivespan has had a position in Qiagen for some time and has been trying to work with management behind the scenes. The firm is a quiet investor and does not publicize its positions (i.e., this is one of six current positions and the only one known publicly). We think the company may not be playing as amicably as Fivespan. An indication of this is that, perhaps in response to Fivespan’s engagement, the company recently pre-announced a beat for its Q1 results and raised expectations regarding its margins, targeting above 30% for the year and over 31% ahead of its 2028 timeline. Qiagen also put out a press release describing its product pipeline, nothing new per se, but a clear sea change in terms of its management of investor communications and proactive strategic planning. There are several ways this can go. Management can agree to embrace Fivespan, who is not advocating for any real controversial actions – growth and margin improvement, the same thing management wants. Management can ignore but placate the investor by taking actions consistent with the plan that results in shareholder appreciation. Or management can ignore the firm and continue down the same road with a flat stock price performance. Given that we do not expect that Fivespan will aggressively pursue a board seat here, we think the first option is preferable, the second is tolerable and the third is unacceptable. Often the tone of an activist campaign depends not on the activist, but the response of the company. This scenario could be a perfect example of that.
As mentioned before, Fivespan appreciates businesses with several paths to shareholder value, one of them being strategic transactions. Qiagen is a highly attractive asset. In fact, pre-Covid, the company held discussions with several suitors regarding a potential transaction. In 2020, they agreed to an improved offer of 43 euros per share from Thermo Fisher Scientific, but the deal ultimately collapsed after Thermo failed to reach the two-thirds tender offer threshold, in part due to a Covid-induced run-up in the share price and vocal shareholders like Davidson Kempner coming out against the deal. Today, the business is just as strong, if not stronger, and FY25 EPS is expected to come in higher than it was in 2020. A sale is never Fivespan’s first choice when making an investment. The firm will focus on the operational and allocation improvements available to create shareholder value but evaluate that against any potential acquisition offer the company may receive and advocate for what it thinks is best for shareholders. With strategic and respected assets – and with the stock trading slightly below the previous offer price from five years ago – an unsolicited offer for the company is not outside of the realm of possibility.
Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments. More