Markus Andrews

Inflation and high interest rates are still taking a toll, but more Americans were able to put money in an emergency fund over the past year, according to a recent report.
Most financial pros recommend having at least six months’ worth of expenses set aside, or more if you are the sole breadwinner in your family or in business for yourself.

While inflation and high interest rates are still taking a toll on consumers, more Americans are able to set aside money in an emergency fund, according to a recent report.
This year, 30% of adults said they have more emergency savings now compared to one year ago, the report by Bankrate found.

More than half of Americans also said they have more emergency savings than credit card debt, an improvement from previous years.
“The number of households reporting more savings than one year ago has been steadily increasing since we began measuring it in 2022, and for the first time exceeds those reporting less savings than the prior year,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. “This is evidence that as the pace of inflation has slowed, it has enabled more Americans to make progress in building, or rebuilding, their emergency savings.”
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Soaring inflation in the wake of the pandemic made it harder to make ends meet. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate-hiking cycle in four decades made it costlier to borrow.
Although inflation has eased significantly, it’s still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

“Just like consumers, the Federal Reserve wants to see further cooling of inflation,” said Mark Hamrick,  Bankrate’s senior economic analyst.
Fed officials are watching closely as they contemplate their next monetary policy moves. The central bank cut its benchmark rate by a full percentage point in the second half of 2024, but policymakers have been advocating a more cautious pace ahead as they evaluate the overall strength of the labor market and President Donald Trump’s policy ramifications.
In remarks before the Senate Banking Committee last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed doesn’t need to move quickly to ease monetary policy.
“With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” he said.
Shortly after taking office, Trump said he would “demand” that interest rates come down “immediately.” However, in subsequent remarks, Trump said he agreed with the decision to keep rates in place.

Why an emergency fund is critical

Having an emergency savings account is key for weathering any sort of financial shock. Research shows that having as little as a few hundred dollars set aside greatly reduces the risk that a family will miss a rent or mortgage payment or be forced to skip medical care.
In addition to helping avoid financial hardship in the short term, emergency savings can also protect long-term financial security. 
According to research by the AARP Public Policy Institute, 53% of U.S. households do not have an emergency savings account, including half of people over age 50, which makes it more likely they will tap their retirement accounts in a crisis.

How to build an emergency savings account

For now, savers can make the most of higher rates by setting some money aside in a high-yield savings account.
“While the Fed putting the brakes on interest rate cuts stinks for those with debt, it is welcome news for savers,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.
In recent years, top-yielding online savings accounts have offered the best returns in more than a decade and still pay nearly 5% — up from around 1% in 2022, according to Bankrate.
“Returns on high-yield savings accounts have fallen from their record levels as the Fed has moved to lower rates. However, as the Fed pauses, that decline should slow as well,” Schulz said. “Your best move is to keep building that emergency fund.”
Most financial experts recommend having at least three to six months’ worth of expenses set aside, or more if you are the sole breadwinner in your family or in business for yourself.
“While we don’t have any idea what the economy will look like in three months, six months or a year or more, we absolutely know that building a stable financial foundation today will help you better weather whatever storm might be ahead,” Schulz said.
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The Social Security Fairness Act was signed into law in January following overwhelming bipartisan support.
The new law repeals provisions that previously reduced Social Security benefits for some individuals who also received pension income from work where they did not pay into Social Security.
The Social Security Administration has said it could take “more than one year” to process the benefit changes for the over 3.2 million individuals affected.

President Joe Biden after he signed the Social Security Fairness Act at the White House on Jan. 5 in Washington, D.C. 
Kent Nishimura | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The biggest changes to Social Security in years were signed into law on Jan. 5.
For more than 3.2 million individuals, that will mean bigger benefit checks. And in some cases, the change will qualify them for Social Security benefits.

The new law, the Social Security Fairness Act, repeals two provisions that previously reduced Social Security benefits for individuals who receive pension income based on work where employers were not required to withhold Social Security payroll taxes.
They were the Windfall Elimination Provision, which was enacted in 1983, and the Government Pension Offset, which was signed into law in 1977. They were federal laws that reduced Social Security benefits for people who received pensions from noncovered employment. Both were repealed by the Social Security Fairness Act.
Among those affected include certain teachers, firefighters and police officers, federal employees, and workers covered by a foreign social security system.
Benefit increases may range from “very little” to more than $1,000 per month, according to the Social Security Administration.
Those increases apply to future monthly checks, as well as retroactive benefits payable since January 2024.

The Social Security Administration “expects that it could take more than one year to adjust benefits and pay all retroactive benefits,” the agency says on its website.
Nevertheless, advocates who fought for the change for years — some of whom will see their own benefits increase — say the signing of the bill was a victory, even as many beneficiaries face an indefinite wait for the extra money.

‘It’s going to take some time,’ a former teacher said of the changes

Roger Boudreau, a 75-year-old former English teacher and president of the Rhode Island American Federation of Teachers retirees chapter, had been to the White House before through his work in union activism over the past 50 years.
But witnessing the signing of the Social Security Fairness Act in January was the “highlight of my life,” he said.
When Boudreau dies, he hopes his role as a founding member of the National WEP/GPO Repeal Task Force is included in his obituary.
“It was such an incredibly important piece of legislation that affected so many people who’ve been so deeply wronged for so many years,” Boudreau said. (To be sure, many retirement policy experts oppose the new policy.)
Boudreau estimates he personally has been losing about $5,000 per year in retirement due to a penalty of about 40% on his earned benefits for the past decade.
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Boudreau taught for 30 years on a variety of subjects including world and British literature and earned a pension toward retirement.
To supplement his income, he took on a variety of extra jobs where he paid into Social Security, working as a taxi driver, selling swimming pools and helping at bakeries over the holidays.
“When I started teaching in 1971, my salary was $7,000 [a year],” Boudreau said. “I had an infant child. If I had two, I would have been eligible for food stamps.”
In addition to the extra work while teaching, he also paid into Social Security when he worked in high school and college. If Boudreau had two more years of earnings, he would have been able to escape the penalty to his benefits, he said.
Now, he’s waiting on the Social Security Administration to find out how large his benefit increases will be.
“We understand that it’s going to take some time,” said Boudreau, who also serves as a task force liaison to the American Federation of Teachers.
In the meantime, the group is advising its retirees to make appointments with their local Social Security office to make sure their information is up to date.

Firefighter hoped benefits would help in retirement

Carl Jordan, a retired Canton, Ohio, fire captain, first found out his Social Security benefits would be reduced when he looked into retiring.
The reductions were a surprise to Jordan, who over a 33-year career started as a firefighter and worked his way up to serve as a medic and finally a captain.
While he earned a pension from that work, he also paid into Social Security through other work. He started as a phlebotomist working in blood donation and then trained as a apheresis technician to collect blood products for the treatment of cancer and other diseases.
“The whole reason for me working the second job was it contributed to the community and it also aided me in taking care of my family at the time,” Jordan said.
“Firefighter wages weren’t that great, and I had hoped that Social Security would supplement my retirement income when I got there,” he said.

Today, Jordan, 73, estimates the reductions have cost him about 2½ years on his mortgage, or around $27,000 excluding interest.
The extra Social Security benefit money will help him pay off that mortgage a little sooner than expected, as well as pay for home improvements, he said.
Still, he doesn’t know exactly how much more benefits he will receive.
Jordan, who attended the January bill signing in Washington, D.C., spoke with a Social Security administrator there who said they could not provide more information on timing or the amount of benefit increases. A month later, he is still waiting for more information from the agency.
Nevertheless, Jordan said he was proud to witness a change he never expected to see in his lifetime, even after advocating for it for almost 16 years.
“To be there representing the profession that I had spent my life serving was an experience everyone should have,” Jordan said.

18-year-old lobbied on behalf of his grandmother

Eliseo Jimenez, who walked from Lubbock, Texas to Washington, DC, to discuss Social Security issues with government officials, leaves after being introduced by President Joe Biden during a signing ceremony for the Social Security Fairness Act at the White House. 
Chris Kleponis | Afp | Getty Images

At 18 years old, Eliseo Jimenez of Lubbock, Texas, may be the youngest to have lobbied for the Social Security Fairness Act.
His grandmother, a former teacher, had to rely mostly on her own pension as her source of income before the new law. Other family members who work in law enforcement were also affected by the provisions.
To call attention to the need for change, Jimenez last summer spent 40 days walking from Texas to Washington, D.C. Because he was under 18 at the time, he was not able to check into hotels or motels on his own, which forced him to sleep outside for several nights.
His efforts helped bring attention to the issue, he said.
“I had a lot of people email me and call me, supporting me and supporting the bill itself,” Jimenez said.
Last month, Jimenez returned to Washington, D.C., again, this time to witness the signing of the Social Security Fairness Act. At the event, then President Joe Biden led a chorus of other lawmakers and attendees to sing “Happy Birthday” to Jimenez. It was “pretty cool,” he said.
Since the changes became law, he has heard from his grandmother, neighbors and residents from other states like Virginia and Tennessee who are affected.
“They said it’s like amazing,” Jimenez said. “It’s life-changing.”
The win has inspired Jimenez, a high school senior who plans to attend college next year, to keep pushing for Social Security reform. He plans to complete another walk in Texas next month to call attention to the issue.
“I want to keep on being involved,” Jimenez said. “I want to keep on advocating for it.”

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Dado Ruvic | Reuters

Inflation worries, tariffs under the Trump administration and earnings season could continue to keep the stock market volatile and rattle investor sentiment.
Investors looking for attractive stock picks should focus on the ability of a company to navigate ongoing uncertainties and deliver strong returns over the long term. To this end, recommendations of top Wall Street analysts can help people make the right investment decisions, as they are based on in-depth analysis and thorough research.

With that in mind, here are three stocks favored by the Street’s top pros, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.
Pinterest
This week’s first stock pick is image sharing and social media platform Pinterest (PINS). The company impressed investors with its solid fourth-quarter results and highlighted that it marked its first billion-dollar revenue quarter. Moreover, Pinterest’s global monthly active users grew 11% year over year to 553 million.
Following the Q4 print, Evercore analyst Mark Mahaney reiterated a buy rating on PINS stock and raised the price target to $50 from $43, noting the spike in the stock following better-than-feared results.
Mahaney observed that the sentiment heading into Q4 results was very low for Pinterest, especially around the Q1 2025 revenue outlook, given that the company faced significantly tougher comparisons. However, Pinterest not only surpassed the Street’s Q4 revenue and EBITDA estimates by 1% and 6%, respectively, but issued a top-line growth outlook that indicated an only one percentage point deceleration (excluding forex) on a 10 percentage point tougher comparison, noted the analyst.
Additionally, Mahaney highlighted that after Q1 2025, Pinterest will see structurally easier comparisons for the balance of the year. The analyst also pointed out that unlike other ad companies he covers, Pinterest doesn’t have significant political exposure. Consequently, this implies that there is a possibility of PINS delivering consistent revenue growth acceleration through FY25, which Mahaney believes would be a key catalyst for the stock.  

“Longer term, it appears PINS is seeing a snowballing impact of multiple product cycles that should power mid to-high teens % Revenue growth (ex-FX) for the foreseeable future,” said Mahaney.
Mahaney ranks No. 24 among more than 9,300 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 64% of the time, delivering an average return of 29.1%. See Pinterest Hedge Fund Activity on TipRanks.
Monday.com
We move to workplace management software provider Monday.com (MNDY). The company recently reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Monday.com attributed its performance to product innovation and its focus on go-to-market execution. Management is optimistic about driving further demand by leveraging artificial intelligence (AI).
In reaction to the Q4 results, JPMorgan analyst Pinjalim Bora reaffirmed a buy rating on MNDY stock and increased the price target to $400 from $350. The analyst noted the company’s solid performance, saying that it surpassed the consensus estimates for key metrics in Q4 2024, following a muted performance in the previous quarter.
The analyst noted that the company’s 2025 revenue outlook of over 26% growth at the mid-point in constant currency surpassed the firm’s expectations and perhaps all buy-side expectations. Bora thinks that demand in the U.S. remains healthy and bounced back from a decline in September, while the demand in Europe continues to be uneven, though it has stabilized relative to November.
Bora thinks that MNDY offers a unique opportunity over the medium term, as it transitions from a collaborative work management platform into a multi-product story. The analyst noted that MNDY has “a solid opportunity to play a central role around Agentic AI workflow around its customers over time.”
Overall, Bora thinks that Monday.com stands out compared to its rivals, thanks to strong execution in a choppy macro environment. The analyst views MNDY as a multi-year compounder, offering a lot of value to long-term investors.
Bora ranks No. 541 among more than 9,300 analysts tracked by TipRanks. The analyst’s ratings have been successful 64% of the time, delivering an average return of 15.2%. See Monday.com Stock Charts on TipRanks.
Amazon
E-commerce and cloud computing giant Amazon (AMZN) is this week’s third pick. The company delivered better-than-anticipated results for the fourth quarter of 2024. However, it issued disappointing guidance for the first quarter of 2025, citing forex headwinds.
In reaction to the Q4 earnings report, Mizuho analyst James Lee reiterated a buy rating on AMZN stock with a price target of $285. The analyst contended that while Amazon issued a subdued outlook and announced a huge increase in capital expenditure, its margins surpassed expectations and the cloud business AWS (Amazon Web Services) fared better than its peers.
Commenting on the elevated capex, Lee stated that management seems very comfortable with the significant rise in investments. This is because they see signs of robust demand and expect a rapid decline in computing costs due to a shift to custom ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) and AI model training innovations, which should fuel an acceleration in AI adoption.
Meanwhile, Lee expects Amazon’s retail business to benefit from its redesigned inbound network, expanding local delivery centers and robotic automation.
“Despite a soft start to 2025, we believe AMZN’s structural story remains unchanged,” said Lee. AMZN stock remains a top pick for Mizuho.
Lee ranks No. 191 among more than 9,300 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 63% of the time, delivering an average return of 15.5%. See Amazon Ownership Structure on TipRanks. More

Trump has launched a broadside against the wind industry, pausing new leases for offshore projects and halting new permits pending a review.
The order has had an immediate impact and puts at risk a pipeline of projects on the East Coast that could power millions of U.S. households.
Some Northeast states don’t have viable alternatives to offshore wind right now, and the order could create grid reliability issues in the future, analysts say.

A view of the turbines at Orsted’s offshore wind farm near Nysted, Denmark, September 4, 2023. 
Tom Little | Reuters

President Donald Trump promised to unleash U.S. energy dominance, but his sweeping executive order targeting wind power puts a pipeline of projects at risk that would generate enough electricity for millions of American homes.
The order Trump issued on his first day in office indefinitely paused new offshore wind leases in U.S. coastal waters and halted new permits pending the completion of a review. The order jeopardizes proposed projects on the East Coast that have not yet secured permits totaling 32 gigawatts of power, according to data from the consulting firm Aurora Energy Research.

“At the moment, it’s really hard to see how any of these projects will be able to move forward,” said Artem Abramov, head of new energies research at the consultancy Rystad. Like Aurora, Rystad estimates that around 30 gigawatts of projects on the U.S. East Coast are at risk.
Those projects, if realized, would provide enough combined power for more than 12 million homes in the U.S., according a CNBC analysis of data from the Energy Information Administration. The order is not expected to impact projects under construction totaling about 5 gigawatts, according to Aurora.
Trump has abandoned commitments made during the Biden administration to fight climate change, withdrawing the U.S. for a second time from the Paris agreement. He has focused on boosting fossil fuel production, opening U.S. coastal waters to oil and gas leasing on the same day he withdrew those waters for wind.
Trump’s order will jeopardize the efforts of states in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to transition away from fossil fuels and decarbonize their electric grid, Abramov said. New York, New Jersey and Virginia, for example, have ambitious clean energy goals adopted at the state level. But they are too far north to rely on solar with battery for power, Abramov said.
“If you want to achieve the future where the power generation in New York or New Jersey or Virginia is completely fossil free, if that’s the ultimate goal, there are not so many alternatives to offshore wind,” Abramov said.

The order could ultimately force states to rely more on carbon-emitting natural gas, according to Rystad and Aurora. But it is virtually impossible for a state like New York to meet its climate goals and ensure an adequate energy supply, particularly downstate in the New York City metro area, without offshore wind, said Julia Hoos, who heads Aurora’s U.S. East division.
Power projects waiting in line to connect to the electric grid in downstate New York through 2027 are almost entirely wind and transmission, Hoos said.
“There is virtually no possibility to bring online new gas in the next 18 to 24 months, unless there’s a significant reform or there’s some sort of fast track to bring online that gas, so you really can run into reliability issues,” Hoos said.
But more natural gas generation will likely be built later in the decade on the back of Trump’s policies, Hoos said. Investor sentiment was already shifting toward gas before the election results due in part to the need for reliable power to meet demand from artificial intelligence data centers, Abramov said.

Immediate impact

Two weeks after Trump’s order, New Jersey decided against moving forward for now with the Atlantic Shores project, which stood to become the first offshore wind development in the state. The state utilities board cited “uncertainty driven by federal actions and permitting” and European oil major Shell pulling out of the project.
“The offshore wind industry is currently facing significant challenges, and now is the time for patience and prudence,” Gov. Phil Murphy said in a statement backing the board’s decision.
Murphy, who has set a goal to achieve 100% clean energy in New Jersey by 2035, said he hoped “the Trump Administration will partner with New Jersey to lower costs for consumers, promote energy security, and create good-paying construction and manufacturing jobs.”
Offshore wind in the U.S. “has come to a stop, more or less with immediate effect” in the wake of Trump’s order, Vestas Wind Energy Systems CEO Henrik Andersen told investors on the company’s Feb. 5 earnings call. Denmark’s Vestas is one of the world’s leaders in manufacturing and servicing wind turbines.

Industry headwinds

Trump’s order deepens the challenges of an industry that was already facing an uncertain outlook after years growth.
Wind has surged as power source in the U.S. over the past 25 years from 2.4 gigawatts of installed generating capacity to 150 gigawatts by April 2024, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Generation from wind hit a record that month, surpassing coal-fired power. Wind currently represents about 11% of total U.S. power generation.

But the industry has struggled against supply chain bottlenecks and high interest rates. Offshore wind was already the the most expensive form of renewable energy, Abramov said. Developers in the U.S. have faced a lot of cost certainty due to the challenges of building on water as opposed to land, Hoos said.
“The industry was hoping that the cost would come down,” Abramov said. “We haven’t seen any projects in the United States which was able to achieve lower levelized cost of energy.”
The world’s largest offshore wind developer, Denmark’s Orsted, decided on Feb. 5 to ditch its goal to install up to 38 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Orsted also slashed its investment program through the end of the decade by about 25% to range of 210 to 230 billion Danish crowns (about $29 billion to $32 billion), down from 270 billion crowns previously.
Orsted’s Sunrise Wind and Revolution wind projects that are under construction offshore New York and New England respectively should not be impacted by Trump’s order, CEO Rasmus Errboe told investors the company’s company’s Feb. 6 earnings call. Future developments, however, may be at risk.
“We are fully committed to moving them forward and deliver on our commitments,” Errboe said. “We do not expect that the executive order will have any implications on assets under construction, but of course for assets under development, it’s potentially a different situation.”
The order also should not impact Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, the largest such project under construction in the U.S. at 2.6 gigawatts of power, Dominion Energy CEO Robert Blue told investors on the utility’s Feb. 12 earning call.
“Stopping it would be the most inflationary action that could be taken with respect to energy in Virginia,” Blue said. “It’s needed to power that growing data center market we’ve been talking about, critical to continuing U.S. superiority in AI and technology.”

Looking for clarity

The wind industry lobby group American Clean Power in a Jan. 20 statement described Trump’s order as a blanket measure that will jeopardize domestic energy development and harm American businesses and workers. The president’s order contradicts the administration’s goal to reduce bureaucracy and unleash energy production, ACP CEO Jason Grumet said in the statement.
The ACP is now trying to get clarity from the Trump administration on how the executive order will be implemented, said Frank Macchiarola, the group’s chief advocacy officer. It’s unclear, for example, when the review of permit and lease practices will be complete, Macchiarola said.
A spokesperson for the Interior Department simply said the department is implementing Trump’s executive order when asked for comment on a detailed list of questions. When asked when the review of permit and lease practices will be complete, the spokesperson said any estimate would be hypothetical.
The wind industry is committed to working with the Trump administration, supports the president’s push for energy dominance agenda and is making the case that renewables have a key role to play in that agenda as the largest new source of electricity in the U.S., Macchiarola said.
“When past administrations have chosen to stifle American energy development that has been almost universally viewed as a mistake,” Macchiarola said.
Onshore wind permitting has also been halted pending the review, but the part of the industry is unlikely to face a substantial impact, Rystad’s Abramov said. Wind farms onshore are almost entirely built on private rather than federal land, he said. The market is also already saturated and adding capacity is largely dependent on building out more energy storage first, the analyst said.
Offshore wind, however, is a much less mature market in the U.S. and was viewed as major growth opportunity for the industry, Abramov said. But that appears to changing rapidly.
“They don’t see the U.S. as a market for continuous offshore wind expansion as long as this order is in place,” the analyst said.

— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.

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While IRS tax audits are rare, some filers worry their returns could be picked for examination.
You can avoid future issues by keeping receipts and other records to support your claims, experts say.

Maria Korneeva | Moment | Getty Images

As millions of taxpayers file returns, many worry that certain claims could boost their chances of being picked for an IRS audit. 
After an infusion of funding, the agency said it aimed to more than double the audit rate for the wealthiest taxpayers. But the IRS’ future priorities are unclear amid changing leadership and a Republican-controlled Congress and White House. 

Still, some areas can be “low-hanging fruit for the IRS,” said Mark Baran, managing director at financial services firm CBIZ’s national tax office.    
More from Personal FinanceYour tax return could be ‘flagged for audit’ without these key formsNearly 1 in 5 eligible taxpayers miss this ‘valuable credit,’ IRS says’Where’s my refund?’ How to check the status of your federal tax refund 
Regardless of your income, you shouldn’t round numbers or estimate expenses on your return, Baran said.
“You’re really playing the audit lottery and increasing your risk,” he said.
Here are some other common IRS red flags for audit, according to some tax experts.

Underreported income

The IRS often finds missing income via so-called “information returns,” or tax forms, which employers and financial institutions send to taxpayers and the agency.
For example, these could include Form W-2 for wages, 1099-NEC for contract or gig economy work or 1099-B for investment earnings.
IRS software compares these tax forms to your return, and it can be “flagged for audit” when there’s a mismatch, explained Elizabeth Young, director of tax practice and ethics for the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, or AICPA.   

High deductions compared to earnings

Another area for IRS scrutiny can be high tax breaks compared to your income, Baran said.
The agency has a program that compares your return to others in a similar tax bracket, he said. The software uses an algorithm to determine whether your deductions are higher than average.      
For example, if your charitable deduction is 30% to 50% of your adjusted gross income, that could prompt “another set of eyes,” Baran said.

Earned income tax credit

Another common target is the earned income tax credit, or EITC, a refundable tax break for low- to moderate-income workers, experts say.
“There are people who claim it improperly for one reason or another,” said Syracuse University law professor Robert Nassau, director of the school’s low-income tax clinic. “It can be confusing,” with eligibility based on earnings, residency and family size.  
Higher earners are more likely to face an audit, but EITC claimants have a 5.5 times higher audit rate than the rest of U.S. filers, partly due to improper payments, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

‘Substantiation’ can protect from audits

While there are red flags, IRS audits are still relatively rare.
Through fiscal year 2023, the IRS examined 0.44% of individual returns filed for tax years 2013 through 2021, according to the latest IRS Data Book. 
When audits involve “mistakes or innocent omissions,” they are typically conducted via so-called “correspondence audits,” which happen by mail, Baran said.
More than 77% of fiscal year 2023 audits occurred via correspondence, the IRS reported. The remaining were face-to-face “field” audits.
Either way, filers with “substantiation really should not fear,” said Baran, noting the importance of receipts and other records to support claims on your return.
“The IRS knows when somebody is prepared and they will move on,” he said.   More

The Phillips 66 Los Angeles Refinery Wilmington Plant stands on November 28, 2022 in Wilmington, California. 
Mario Tama | Getty Images

Company: Phillips 66 (PSX)

Business: Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company. It operates through the following segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties (M&S). The Midstream segment provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling and processing services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) transportation, storage, fractionation, gathering, processing and marketing service. The Chemicals segment consists of the company’s 50% equity investment in Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC (CPChem), which manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis. The Refining business refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasoline, distillates and aviation fuels, as well as renewable fuels, at 12 refineries in the U.S. and Europe. Finally, the Marketing and Specialties segment purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products and renewable fuels.
Stock Market Value: $52.88B ($128.04 per share)

Stock chart icon

Phillips 66 shares over the past year

Activist: Elliott Investment Management

Ownership: ~4.6%
Average Cost: n/a
Activist Commentary: Elliott is a very successful and astute activist investor. The firm’s team includes analysts from leading tech private equity firms, engineers, operating partners – former technology CEOs and COOs. When evaluating an investment, the firm also hires specialty and general management consultants, expert cost analysts and industry specialists. It often watches companies for many years before investing and has an extensive stable of impressive board candidates. Elliott has historically focused on strategic activism in the technology sector and has been very successful with that strategy. However, over the past several years the firm’s activism group has grown, and it has been doing a lot more governance-oriented activism and creating value from a board level at a much larger breadth of companies.

What’s happening

On Feb. 11, Elliott issued a letter and presentation to the Phillips 66 board outlining “Streamline66,” a plan to resolve the company’s continued underperformance and poor corporate governance practices despite its portfolio of attractive assets. It includes the following steps: (i) streamline the company’s portfolio through a sale or spin-off of the midstream business as well as a potential sale of its interest in CPChem; (ii) initiate an operating review by committing to ambitious refining targets and closing the EBITDA-per-barrel gap with its peers; and (iii) increase oversight and bolster accountability of Phillips 66’s management team by adding new independent directors to the board.

Behind the scenes

Phillips 66 (PSX) is an energy manufacturing and logistics company. The company maintains four valuable asset segments, each offering scalability and strong competitive positioning. Its Midstream segment operates a vertically integrated wellhead-to-water natural gas liquids (NGL) business across the Permian and DJ basins. The Chemicals segment comprises their world-scale petrochemical joint venture CPChem. The Refining segment is one of the largest refining systems in the U.S. The Marketing and Specialties segment consists of a scaled fuels marketing business and production of specialty products. Despite the attractiveness of these assets individually, Phillips trades at a significant discount to its sum-of-the-parts valuation. While approximately 70% of the company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization comes from the premium multiple Midstream, Chemicals and Marketing segments, which trade as high as 10-times EBITDA, PSX trades closer to the multiple of its lowest-valued Refining segment at 6.6-times. As a result, the company has significantly underperformed the average of its closest peers, Valero Energy (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC), in cumulative total return by 9%, 33%, and 97% over the past 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods, respectively.

Elliott first publicly engaged PSX in November 2023, when the firm sent a letter to the board of directors announcing its $1 billion investment in the company. Elliott criticized PSX for its history of underperformance, citing issues such as shifting away from and being poorly prepared to take advantage of the refining super-cycle in ’22 and ’23, rising refining operating expenditures (OPEX) per barrel in absolute and relative terms compared to peers VLO and MPC, and increasing costs relative to peers in the wake of a cost-reduction program. Elliott saw a potential stock price of more than $200 per share at the time, but the firm shared Wall Street’s concern that PSX was primarily an execution story.  
Despite this, Elliott acted the way we want active shareholders to do so, as opposed to how they are perceived by many. The firm gave CEO Mark Lashier the opportunity to demonstrate meaningful progress on his targets of $14 billion of mid-cycle EBITDA by 2025, non-core asset divestitures of $3 billion and increasing PSX’s long-term capital return policy. They quickly and amicably agreed with the company to add two new directors with refining experience to the board. The company added Robert Pease, a former executive of Cenovus, to the board in February 2024, and agreed to continue to work with Elliott on identifying a second director in the coming months. The second director never materialized.
Now, more than a year later, Elliott has increased its position to $2.5 billion and is going to become more active in creating shareholder value, issuing a public letter and presentation to “Streamline66.” Elliott identifies three primary sources of PSX’s underperformance. First, the firm argues that the company’s intrinsic value has been obscured by its inefficient conglomerate structure, resulting in it trading in line with its lowest multiple refining segment despite a majority of EBITDA coming from its other premium businesses. Second, PSX’s operating performance has failed to meet management’s targets and profitability continues to lag peers. In 2024, PSX delivered annualized adjusted EBITDA of between $4.5 billion and $8.7 billion, well short of its $14 billion 2025 mid-cycle target. The company’s OPEX per barrel has risen in two consecutive quarters, and its EBITDA per barrel profitability gap has only widened versus VLO. Third, Elliott asserts that management’s continuous claim of a successful turnaround without any tangible financial results has eroded their credibility with investors. The firm also said the board has failed in its fundamental oversight duties, rewarding management with compensation disconnected from the company’s performance.
This is what has led Elliott to releasing its three-pronged plan to: (i) streamline PSX’s portfolio, (ii) review operational performance with an eye toward refining margin improvements, and (iii) improving management credibility with the addition of new directors. First, Elliott suggests spinning or selling PSX’s midstream assets, estimating that they could deliver approximately $40 billion to $45 billion as a standalone or in a sale to a strategic buyer. In addition, Elliott also suggests the sale of CPChem and JET, estimating that net proceeds of $48 billion from the three assets would be equivalent to 96% of the company’s current market cap. The raising of that amount of capital could allow PSX to repurchase between 60% and 90% of the company’s shares outstanding and increase the payout ratio to 100% of free cash flow like its refining peers. With enhanced oversight enabled by the addition of new directors with industry and operational experience, PSX could get on track towards improving its EBITDA per barrel and progress towards its refining targets.
Elliott estimates that this plan could yield a share price of approximately $200 per share. Moreover, the firm asserts that if PSX executes the playbook Elliott employed in its engagement at MPC, shares could increase to over $300. At Marathon, Elliott helped facilitate the addition of a new director, transition to a new CEO, closure of the gap in per barrel EBITDA with VLO, retirement of 50% of its shares outstanding since 2021, and sale of the Speedway retail operation for $17 billion in after-tax cash proceeds. Since Elliott sent its first letter to Marathon on Nov. 21, 2016, MPC has outperformed VLO and PSX by 56% and 116%, respectively.
Having a good plan is the first step, implementing it is another story. This time, Elliott will not be settling for one or two directors, especially after PSX failed to follow through on the agreement last time to add a second director with refinery experience. Elliott gave management time to execute. Management failed. Now, Elliott will do what the board is supposed to do, but did not: hold management accountable. Elliott does not explicitly state that it’s looking to replace senior management, but it does discuss management’s damaged credibility and eroded investor confidence, and that is hard to fix without replacing management. Moreover, Elliott does cite CEO replacement as the first item which led to successful turnarounds in their engagements at Marathon and Suncor. With the company’s nomination window closing this week and four directors on the 14-person board up for election, we expect Elliott will nominate a full slate of four directors, if only to preserve its options while discussing governance with the board.
Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments. More

If your federal tax refund or tax bill is more than expected, you may need updates to your paycheck withholding.
There’s a quick calculation to see if you’re on track, or you can use a free tool from the IRS known as the “tax withholding estimator.”

Prapass Pulsub | Moment | Getty Images

If you have a tax bill or bigger than expected refund this season, it may be time to update your paycheck withholding, which can be tricky, experts say.  
Typically, there’s a refund when you overpay taxes throughout the year, and a tax bill when you don’t pay enough. It’s up to the employee to tell employers how much federal tax to withhold from each paycheck via Form W-4. 

The form “seems like a calculus problem,” said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida. But there’s a “quick and dirty” way to figure it out, he said.
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‘Back-of-the-napkin’ math for your withholding

After filing your 2024 return, you can see your “total tax” on line 24 on the second page of your filing, Form 1040, Lucas said. If your earnings and tax situation are the same for 2025, your tax liability should be similar.
Next, you’ll need to know how much you’re withholding from each paycheck and how many pay periods remain for 2025 to see if you’re on track, he explained.
For example, let’s say your “total tax” was $10,000 for 2024. If there are 23 pay periods left in 2025, you’ll need to withhold roughly $435 from each paycheck, Lucas said.

To withhold more, you can resubmit Form W-4 with an “extra withholding” added in the “other adjustments” section of step 4, he said.
“That’s the simple, back-of-the-napkin method,” Lucas said.
However, you’ll need to readjust your W-4 at the beginning of the next tax year. It should also be updated as your tax situation changes — like a bonus, second job, marriage, divorce, having a child and more.

Use the IRS ‘tax withholding estimator’

If your tax situation has changed or you want a more detailed update, you can use a free IRS tool known as the “tax withholding estimator,” Lucas said.
“It’s intuitive and it actually does a really good job,” he said.
You’ll also need pay stubs from all jobs (including your spouse) and most recent tax returns. But it won’t be a good fit “if your tax situation is complex,” according to the IRS.
With rapid changes in income, investment earnings or retirement plan distributions, you may need quarterly estimated tax payments to avoid IRS penalties, said Sheneya Wilson, a certified public accountant and founder of Fola Financial in New York.  More

Americans plan to spend $14.6 billion on their significant others for Valentine’s Day, according to the National Retail Federation.
While consumers may not feel great about the broader economy, “they still feel very willing to spend on what’s important to them,” said Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at the National Retail Federation.

Sanja Radin | E+ | Getty Images

It seems that love is in the air, and so is the spending as more people are apparently getting into the Valentine’s Day spirit this year.
Americans shopping for their significant others are expected to spend $14.6 billion this year, according to the latest annual survey by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. That is up from $14.2 billion in 2024.

The survey polled 8,020 adult consumers about their Valentine’s Day shopping plans in early January.
Despite strong spending trends, inflation could play a role in whether consumers choose to splurge or scale back, experts say. To that point, this record Valentine’s Day spending comes at a time when inflation is still relatively high in the U.S. The consumer price index, an inflation gauge, jumped 3% for the 12 months ending in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
The January reading is up from 2.9% in December, the fourth consecutive month of increases in the annual inflation rate when it was at 2.4% in September.
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While consumers may not feel great about the broader economy, “they still feel very willing to spend on what’s important to them,” said Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at the National Retail Federation.

“These moments of celebration throughout the year have really seemingly grown in the consumer psyche,” or “becoming moments of joy,” she said.
“We’ve also seen people more likely than before the pandemic to say that they’re really living in the moment because the future is a little more uncertain,” Cullen added.
It can be a nice experience to splurge on the holiday. But if you find yourself with a tighter budget this year, there are financially savvy ways you can express your love, experts say. 

How Americans are spending for Valentine’s Day

The National Retail Federation found that candy was the most popular Valentine’s gift. More than half, or 56%, of surveyed respondents plan to give candy, followed by flowers and greeting cards equally at 40%, an evening out at 35% and jewelry at 22%. 

According to the NRF report, shoppers plan to spend approximately $6.5 billion on jewelry, with further spending allocated toward “an evening out” at $5.4 billion and flowers at $2.9 billion.
As you browse online or hit the stores for Valentine’s Day shopping, it can be tempting to put the purchases on your credit card. Before you do, keep in mind that Americans’ total credit card balance is $1.211 trillion as of the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the latest consumer debt data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That is up from $1.166 trillion in the third quarter of 2024 and is the highest balance since the New York Fed began tracking in 1999.
If you can’t afford to make these purchases, here are ways to celebrate the holiday without going over budget, according to experts:

1. ‘Shift your Valentine’s Day’

If you can’t make dinner or evening plans on Valentine’s Day this year, consider celebrating the holiday on a different date, experts say. 
“Shift your Valentine’s Day,” said Carolyn McClanahan, a physician and certified financial planner and the founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida.
If you’re willing to go out the night before or the night after or more, the move “can potentially be a way to save,” said Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate.

2. Make a special meal at home

Try to make some adaptations if you’re unable to shift the date or be flexible with timing, Rossman said. 
For instance, red roses go “sky high around Valentine’s Day,” he said. “Maybe you could get a different type of flower.”
If you’re having a hard time booking reservations or costs are too high, try cooking a special meal at home, or something that you wouldn’t normally prepare, experts say.
“Buy yourself a really good bottle of wine and cook something special,” said McClanahan, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

3. A meaningful gift

If you plan to give your significant other an extravagant gift such as a piece of jewelry, keep this in mind: “The more expensive the jewelry doesn’t mean the more love you’re giving,” McClanahan said.
Instead of jumping immediately to high ticket-price items, consider what your gift-giving history with each other has been, McClanahan said.
“Get something special that may not be as expensive, something a person would really want,” she said. More