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    The magic and the minefield of confidence

    Confidence is contagious. Someone declaring a position with ringing certainty is more likely to inspire than someone who hedges their bets. “We may fight them on the beaches; it depends a bit on the weather,” would have been a lot less persuasive. What is true of Churchill’s wartime oratory is true in less dramatic circumstances. A study by Matthias Brauer of the University of Mannheim and his co-authors analysed language used in letters from activist investors; it found that more confident letters were associated with more successful activist campaigns. More

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    Big oil may be softening its stance on climate-change regulation

    A spectre hangs over Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, where diplomats, scientists and activists are gathered for the UN’s annual climate-change summit. Last time he was in office Donald Trump, a fossil-fuel booster and climate-science denier, yanked America out of the UN’s Paris climate agreement (it later rejoined). The president-elect has vowed to do so again on his first day back in office. More

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    Donald Trump is bad news for German business

    German bOSSES can’t catch a break. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago their firms have been pummelled by surging energy prices, slowing demand in China, stiffening competition, fractious workers and a dysfunctional (though soon to be ousted) government. Shares in German companies have risen by just 3% since the start of 2022, compared with 16% for those in rich countries as a whole (see chart). Now the country’s CEOs are wringing their hands over Donald Trump’s return to power. More

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    Tesla is not the only winner under Donald Trump

    A PART OF Donald Trump’s political genius is being all things to all people—or at least to all of his supporters. He has said so many contradictory things, throughout his public life and during the presidential campaign, that it is easy to latch onto the bits you like and either ignore those you don’t, or dismiss them as braggadocio. Investors, it seems, are no different. The former president’s decisive victory on November 5th sparked a global rally in equities, as stockpickers filled the Trump-shaped hole in their vision of the future with hopes and dreams. In those reveries, lower taxes and less red tape propel the planet’s biggest economy, and with it the economy of the planet as a whole. By the end of the week stocks were up by 2.4% globally relative to election day. More

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    What would Elon Musk do in government?

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    Why being wrong is good for you

    “Mistakes are the portals of discovery,” wrote James Joyce in “Ulysses”. In 1888 Lee Kum Sheung, a young cook in a coastal province in southern China, forgot the oyster soup he was boiling on the stove until it simmered down to a thick, sticky gravy. Once he discovered how tasty it was, he decided to sell his “oyster sauce” in jars. That lucky mistake would make him and his heirs rich. According to Forbes, the Lee siblings—his great-grandchildren—are worth $17.7bn, making them the fourth-richest family in Hong Kong. More

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    How will business deal with Donald Trump this time?

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    Oil bosses have big hopes for the AI boom

    This week 180,000 people descended on Abu Dhabi to attend ADIPEC, the global oil-and-gas industry’s biggest annual gathering. This year’s focus, perhaps unsurprisingly, was the nexus of artificial intelligence (AI) and energy. On the eve of the jamboree Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of ADNOC, the Emirati national oil giant, convened a private meeting of big tech and big energy bosses. A survey of some 400 energy, tech and finance bigwigs released in conjunction with the event concluded that AI is set to transform the energy business by boosting efficiency and cutting greenhouse-gas emissions. More