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    UniCredit’s pursuit of Commerzbank reflects a watershed moment for Europe — and its banking union

    European banking’s latest takeover battle is widely regarded as a potential turning point for the region — particularly the bloc’s incomplete banking union
    Italy’s UniCredit has ratcheted up the pressure on Frankfurt-based Commerzbank in recent weeks as it seeks to become the biggest investor in Germany’s second-largest lender with a 21% stake.
    The Milan-based bank, which took a 9% stake in Commerzbank earlier this month, appears to have caught German authorities off guard.

    A man shelters from the rain under an umbrella as he walks past the Euro currency sign in front of the former European Central Bank (ECB) building in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany.
    Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty Images

    European banking’s latest takeover battle is widely regarded as a potential turning point for the region — particularly the bloc’s incomplete banking union.
    Italy’s UniCredit has ratcheted up the pressure on Frankfurt-based Commerzbank in recent weeks as it seeks to become the biggest investor in Germany’s second-largest lender with a 21% stake.

    The Milan-based bank, which took a 9% stake in Commerzbank earlier this month, appears to have caught German authorities off guard with the potential multibillion-euro merger.
    “The long-discussed move by UniCredit, Italy’s number one bank, to seek control of Germany’s Commerzbank is a watershed for Germany and Europe,” David Marsh, chairman of London-based OMFIF, an organization that tracks central banking and economic policy, said Tuesday in a written commentary.
    Whatever the outcome of UniCredit’s swoop on Commerzbank, Marsh said the episode marks “another huge test” for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

    The embattled German leader is firmly opposed to the apparent takeover attempt and has reportedly described UniCredit’s move as an “unfriendly” and “hostile” attack.
    “The dispute between Germany and Italy over UniCredit’s takeover manoeuvres – branded by Scholz an unfriendly act – threatens to inflame relations between two of the Big Three member states of the European Union,” Marsh said.

    “A compromise could still be found,” he continued. “But the hostility developing in Italy and Germany could scupper any meaningful steps towards completing banking union and capital markets integration, which all sides say is necessary to drag Europe out of its malaise.”

    What is Europe’s banking union?

    Designed in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, the European Union’s executive arm in 2012 announced plans to create a banking union to make sure that lenders across the region were stronger and better supervised.
    The project, which became a reality in 2014 when the European Central Bank assumed its role as a banking supervisor, is widely considered to be incomplete. For instance, the lack of a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) is one of a number of factors that has been cited as a barrier to progress.
    European leaders, including Germany’s Scholz, have repeatedly called for greater integration in Europe’s banking sector.
    OMFIF’s Marsh said Germany’s opposition to UniCredit’s move on Commerzbank means Berlin “now stands accused of favouring European banking integration only on its own terms.”
    A spokesperson for Germany’s government did not immediately respond when contacted by CNBC for comment.

    The logo of German bank Commerzbank seen on a branch office near The Commerzbank Tower in Frankfurt.
    Daniel Roland | Afp | Getty Images

    Hostile takeover bids are not common in the European banking sector, although Spanish bank BBVA shocked markets in May when it launched an all-share takeover offer for domestic rival Banco Sabadell.
    The head of Banco Sabadell said earlier this month that it is highly unlikely BBVA will succeed with its multi-billion-euro hostile bid, Reuters reported. And yet, BBVA CEO Onur Genç told CNBC on Wednesday that the takeover was “moving according to plan.”
    Spanish authorities, which have the power to block any merger or acquisition of a bank, have voiced their opposition to BBVA’s hostile takeover bid, citing potentially harmful effects on the county’s financial system.
    Mario Centeno, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Tuesday that European policymakers have been working for more than a decade to establish a “true banking union” — and continue to do so.
    The unfinished project means that the intervention framework for banking crises continues to be “an awkward mix” of national and EU authorities and instruments, according to Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.

    Asked whether comments opposing banking consolidation from leading politicians in both Germany and Spain were a source of frustration, the ECB’s Centeno replied, “We have been working very hard in Europe to bring [the] banking union to completion. There are still some issues on the table, that we all know.”

    What happens next?

    Thomas Schweppe, founder of Frankfurt-based advisory firm 7Square and a former Goldman mergers and acquisitions banker, said Germany’s decision — intentional or otherwise — to sell a small 4.5% stake to UniCredit earlier this month meant the bank was now “in play” for a potential takeover.
    “I think we are, you know, proposing a European banking landscape and also in Germany, they are a proponent of strong European banks that have a good capital base and are managed well,” Schweppe told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
    “If we mean this seriously, I think we need to accept that European consolidation also means that a German bank becomes the acquired party,” he added.
    Asked for a timeline on how long the UniCredit-Commerzbank saga was likely to drag on, Schweppe said it could run for months, “if not a year or more.” He cited a lengthy regulatory process and the need for talks between all stakeholders to find a “palatable” solution. More

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    Southwest Airlines to cut service and staffing in Atlanta to slash costs

    Southwest Airlines is planning to reduce service next year to and from Atlanta, the world’s busiest airport.
    The carrier said it could cut more than 300 pilot and flight attendant positions, according to a memo seen by CNBC.
    Southwest isn’t laying the crews off, but they will likely have to bid to work from other cities.

    A Southwest Airlines plane takes off from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) in Atlanta, Georgia, US, on Friday, July 12, 2024. 
    Elijah Nouvelage | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Southwest Airlines is planning to reduce service to and from Atlanta next year, cutting more than 300 pilot and flight attendant positions, according to a company memo seen by CNBC.
    The changes come a day before Southwest’s investor day, when executives will map out the company’s plan to cut costs and grow revenue as pressure mounts from activist investor Elliott Investment Management.

    Southwest told staff it isn’t closing its crew base in Atlanta. Instead, it will reduce staffing by as many as 200 flight attendants and as many as 140 pilots, for the April 2025 bid month.
    The airline also isn’t laying the crews off, but they will likely have to bid to work from other cities.

    Read more CNBC airline news

    Southwest will reduce its Atlanta presence to 11 gates next year from 18, according to a separate memo from the pilots’ union.
    It will service 21 cities from Atlanta starting next April, down from 37 in March, the carrier said.
    “Although we try everything we can before making difficult decisions like this one, we simply cannot afford continued losses and must make this change to help restore our profitability,” Southwest said in its memo. “This decision in no way reflects our Employees’ performance, and we’re proud of the Hospitality and the efforts they have made and will continue to make with our Customers in ATL.”

    The unions that represent Southwest’s pilot and flight attendants railed against the airline for the staffing and service cuts.
    “Southwest Airlines management is failing Employees while impacting Customers. Management continues to make decisions that lack full transparency, sufficient communication with Union leadership, and most alarmingly, a lack of focus on what has made the airline great, the Employees,” said Bill Bernal, the flight attendants’ union president.
    A Southwest spokesman confirmed the changes and said the carrier will “continue to optimize our network to meet customer demand, best utilize our fleet, and maximize revenue opportunities.”

    Travelers check in at a Southwest counter at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) in Atlanta, Georgia, US, on Tuesday, July 23, 2024.
    Elijah Nouvelage | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The airline had already pulled out of certain airports, some of which it experimented with during the pandemic to focus on more profitable service.
    Southwest is not only facing changing booking patterns and oversupplied parts of the U.S. market but aircraft delays from Boeing, whose yet-to-be-certified 737 Max 7 airplanes are years behind schedule
    The airline’s COO, Andrew Watterson, told staff last week that it will have to make “difficult decisions” to boost profits.
    The reduction in Atlanta, the world’s busiest airport and Delta Air Lines home hub, is the latest development for the airline. In July, Southwest announced it plans to get rid of open seating and offer extra legroom on its airplanes, the biggest changes in its more than half-century of flying.
    Also on Wednesday, Southwest released an expanded schedule, selling tickets through June 4. In addition to the planned cuts in Atlanta, the carrier said it will boost service to and from Nashville, Tennessee. It will also start offering overnight flights from Hawaii, beginning April 8. Those include service from Honolulu to Las Vegas and Phoenix; Kona, Hawaii, to Las Vegas; and Maui, Hawaii, to Las Vegas and Phoenix.

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    Investor Paul Viera doubles his San Antonio Spurs stake in a steep discount deal

    Businessman Paul Viera is increasing his stake in the San Antonio Spurs from 5% to 11% as NBA team valuations rise, CNBC has learned.
    Viera bought the additional stake from food service company Aramark.
    The NBA has been working to increase team ownership by people of color or former players.

    The San Antonio Spurs logo is seen before the game against the Golden State Warriors in Game Three of Round One of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on April 19, 2018 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. 
    Noah Graham | National Basketball Association | Getty Images

    Businessman Paul Viera is increasing his stake in the San Antonio Spurs from 5% to 11%, CNBC has learned, as NBA valuations climb and make teams more attractive assets for investors.
    About two weeks ago, Viera, founder and CEO of the Atlanta-based investment firm Earnest Partners, bought out food service company Aramark’s remaining interest in the Spurs at a steep discount in a deal that values the team at $2.5 billion, according to two sources familiar with the deal, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss nonpublic information. Partial team owners can get major discounts when they buy small pieces of teams that give them less control over decisions.

    Last May, Viera bought a 5% stake in the Spurs for an undisclosed enterprise value. But Aramark’s 2023 annual report says it sold a portion of its stake in the Spurs for $98.2 million in cash, resulting in a pretax loss of $1.1 million during fiscal 2023.
    The Spurs’ majority owner is Peter Holt, managing partner of Spurs Sports & Entertainment, which also operates the team’s arena, the Frost Bank Center. The Holts joined the Spurs ownership group in 1996. Other minority owners of the team include Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell, Sixth Street Partners, the McCombs family and two-time NBA champion David Robinson, who played for the Spurs from 1989 to 2003.

    Paul Viera, investor in theSan Antonio Spurs.
    Courtesy: NBA

    The Spurs have won five NBA titles, but have not made the postseason since 2019. The team finished with a 22-60 record in 2023-24, last in the Southwest Division, but rising superstar Victor Wembanyama is starting to change the team’s basketball and financial trajectory.
    NBA teams are hot assets thanks in large part to the league’s new $76 billion, 11-year media deal.
    Just two weeks ago, former Milwaukee Bucks star Junior Bridgeman paid a $3.4 billion enterprise value (equity plus net debt) for a preferred limited discount for 10% of the Bucks in a deal that valued the team at $4 billion, $800 million more than the club was valued at when Jimmy and Dee Haslam bought Marc Lasry’s 25% in April 2023.

    Sports bankers tell CNBC that controlling stakes in the Spurs and Bucks are not far apart in value, at around $4 billion.
    Both Bridgeman and Viera also add to the growing number of diverse owners in pro basketball.
    The NBA has tried to increase the number of owners who are people of color or former NBA players.
    Former players with a minority stake in teams include: Grant Hill in the Atlanta Hawks; Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway in the Memphis Grizzlies; Robinson in the Spurs; Dwyane Wade in the Utah Jazz; Elliot Perry in the Grizzlies; and Michael Jordan in the Charlotte Hornets.
    All eyes now turn to the Boston Celtics. Just weeks after winning the NBA Finals, co-owner Wyc Grousbeck announced he was selling his stake in the team in July.
    The Grousbeck family has its controlling stake in the Boston Celtics on the market, and sources tell CNBC they expect the reigning NBA champions to fetch between $5.5 billion and $6 billion. The Grousbecks bought the Celtics for $360 million in 2002.
    The NBA declined to comment on Viera’s investment in the Spurs. Aramark and Earnest Partners did not respond to emails from CNBC regarding Viera’s investments.
    Disclosure: NBCUniversal, CNBC’s parent company, is one of the NBA’s partners in its new media rights deal.

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    SEC charges Merrill Lynch, Harvest Volatility Management for ignoring client investment limits

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged Harvest Volatility Management and Merrill Lynch on Wednesday for exceeding clients’ predesignated investment limits over a two-year period.
    The two companies settled separately and will pay a combined $9.3 million to resolve the claims.
    The SEC found Harvest exposed investors to greater financial risks and Merrill connected clients to Harvest while aware that accounts were exceeding designated limits.

    A logo for financial service company Merrill Lynch is seen in New York.
    Emmanuel Dunand | Afp | Getty Images

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged Harvest Volatility Management and Merrill Lynch on Wednesday for exceeding clients’ predesignated investment limits over a two-year period.
    Merrill, owned by Bank of America, and Harvest have agreed in separate settlements to pay a combined $9.3 million in penalties to resolve the claims.

    Harvest was the primary investment advisor and portfolio manager for the Collateral Yield Enhancement Strategy, which traded options in a volatility index aimed at incremental returns. Beginning in 2016, Harvest allowed a plethora of accounts to exceed the exposure levels that investors had already designated when they signed up for the enhancement strategy, with dozens passing the limit by 50% or more, according to the SEC’s orders.
    The SEC said Merrill connected its clients to Harvest while it knew that investors’ accounts were exceeding the set exposure levels under Harvest’s management. Merrill also received a cut of Harvest’s trading commissions and management and incentive fees, according to the agency.
    Both Merrill and Harvest received larger management fees while investors were exposed to greater financial risks, the SEC said. Both companies were found to neglect policies and procedures that could have been adopted to alert investors of exposure exceeding the designated limits.
    “In this case, two investment advisers allegedly sold a complex options trading strategy to their clients, but failed to abide by basic client instructions or implement and adhere to appropriate policies and procedures,” said Mark Cave, associate director of the SEC’s enforcement division. “Today’s action holds Merrill and Harvest accountable for dropping the ball in executing these basic duties to their clients, even as their clients’ financial exposure grew well beyond predetermined limits.”
    A representative from Bank of America said the company “ended all new enrollments with Harvest in 2019 and recommended that existing clients unwind their positions.”

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    Novo Nordisk’s diabetes drug Ozempic may lower the risk of opioid overdoses, study says

    Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic may decrease the risk of opioid overdoses in certain patients, according to a new study.
    The results suggest semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, could potentially become a new alternative treatment for opioid use disorder, which could help address the ongoing opioid epidemic.
    The data adds to growing evidence that a highly popular class of diabetes and obesity treatments called GLP-1s may have health benefits beyond regulating blood sugar and promoting weight loss.

    A box of Ozempic made by Novo Nordisk is seen at a pharmacy in London, Britain March 8, 2024.
    Hollie Adams | Reuters

    Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic may decrease the risk of opioid overdoses in certain patients, demonstrating its potential as an alternative treatment for opioid use disorder, according to a new study released Wednesday. 
    The active ingredient in Ozempic, semaglutide, was associated with a “significantly lower” opioid overdose risk than other diabetes medications in people diagnosed with both Type 2 diabetes and opioid use disorder, said the paper published in JAMA Network Open. 

    The results suggest that Ozempic could offer potential as a tool for addressing the ongoing U.S. opioid epidemic, which was declared a public health emergency in 2017. There are currently three effective medications to prevent overdoses from opioid use disorder, but a new alternative is needed because some patients simply don’t use them, said lead study co-author Dr. Rong Xu, a biomedical informatics professor at Case Western Reserve University. 
    In 2022, only about a quarter of patients with opioid use disorder received recommended medications for it, and many discontinued treatment within six months, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The National Center for Drug Abuse Statistics says opioids are a factor in around 72% of overdose deaths in the U.S. 
    The study results also add to mounting evidence that a highly popular class of diabetes and obesity treatments called GLP-1s may have several health benefits beyond regulating blood sugar and promoting weight loss. Novo Nordisk, its rival Eli Lilly and independent researchers have been racing to study those drugs’ potential in patients with chronic conditions ranging from kidney disease and sleep apnea to addictive behaviors such as nicotine and alcohol use.
    In the study released Wednesday, researchers from Case Western Reserve University and the National Institutes of Health analyzed the electronic records of nearly 33,000 patients who were prescribed semaglutide or other diabetes medications between December 2017 and June 2023. The study was not funded by Novo Nordisk. 
    Around 3,000 people were prescribed semaglutide injections, while the remaining patients received treatments that ranged from insulins to older GLP-1s for diabetes. That includes dulaglutide, the active ingredient in Eli Lilly’s drug Trulicity, and liraglutide, which is the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s Victoza. 

    Researchers monitored how many opioid overdose cases occurred in patients during a one-year period after they stopped treatment with semaglutide or other drugs. For example, there were 42 cases of opioid overdose among a group of patients that received semaglutide, compared with 97 cases among another group that received insulins, according to the study. 
    That reflects a 58% lower risk of opioid overdose in patients who took semaglutide, Xu said.  
    But Xu noted the study has limitations since it relies on data from electronic health records.

    More CNBC health coverage

    More research, specifically clinical trials that randomly assign patients to receive semaglutide or other treatments, is needed to confirm how much Ozempic and other GLP-1s can help those with opioid use disorder, according to the study authors. Those randomized studies can also determine whether those treatments are beneficial to the general opioid use disorder population or only certain patients with the condition.
    “The extent to which GLP-1 medications could benefit treatment of opioid use disorders and help prevent overdoses is unclear,” Dr. Nora Volkow, lead study co-author and director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health, said in a statement to CNBC. “The preliminary findings from this study point to the possibility that GLP-1 medications may have value in helping to prevent opioid overdoses.”
    Xu added that the researchers plan to study semaglutide in patients with opioid use disorder and obesity. 

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    New Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol commits to working with union as talks move forward

    Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol said he respects the rights of the coffee chain’s baristas to unionize.
    Starbucks and Workers United are negotiating a framework for collective bargaining agreements for unionized cafes.
    Today, Workers United represents more than 490 of Starbucks’ U.S. cafes and more than 10,500 of its employees.

    A Starbucks worker wears a t-shirt and button promoting unionization on April 7, 2022, in Chicago. 
    John J. Kim | Chicago Tribune | Tribune News Service | Getty Images

    Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol said the coffee chain is committed to bargaining in good faith with the union that represents many of its baristas, as the two sides work to craft a labor deal.
    “I deeply respect the right of partners to choose, through a fair and democratic process, to be represented by a union,” Niccol wrote on Tuesday in a letter to the union obtained by CNBC. “If our partners choose to be represented, I am committed to making sure we engage constructively and in good faith with the union and the partners it represents.”

    He was responding to a letter from the Starbucks Workers United bargaining delegation sent a day earlier, ahead of another bargaining session between Starbucks and the union. The two sides are negotiating a framework that would be the basis for collective bargaining agreements between individual stores and the company. The union is pushing for fair scheduling, a living wage, and racial and gender equity, the delegation said in its letter.
    “We know that many of your dedicated customers — as well as future generations of customers — have a vested interest in the outcome of our negotiations and reaching a foundational agreement,” the group wrote in its letter to Niccol.
    Three years ago, Starbucks baristas started unionizing under Workers United, an affiliate of the Service Employees International Union. For two and a half years, the coffee giant tried to curb the union push, leading to battles that played out in headlines, social media and courts.
    But the turning point for both parties came six months ago when they agreed to work together on a path forward after mediation to resolve lawsuits sparked by the union’s posts on social media.
    Niccol joined Starbucks several weeks ago, making him a newcomer to the union discussions. In his previous role as CEO of Chipotle Mexican Grill, only one location, in Lansing, Michigan, successfully unionized. Last year, the burrito chain agreed to pay former employees of an Augusta, Maine, location $240,000 as part of a settlement for closing the restaurant when workers tried to unionize. Chipotle denied any wrongdoing.
    Today, Workers United represents more than 490 of Starbucks’ U.S. cafes and more than 10,500 of its employees. The company has more than 16,700 locations in the U.S., more than half of which are owned by the company. More

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    How birria took over restaurant menus across the country

    Once a regional Mexican food, birria has seen its presence on U.S. menus more than quintuple over the past four years, according to Datassential.
    Mexican-inspired chains such as Qdoba and Del Taco have added their own versions to their menus, while eateries with broader menus have also adopted it.
    Birria’s versatility and flavor has helped it grow from being a specific dish to a protein found across menus and in many different foods.

    Birria burrito surrounded by birria tacos, birria munchwrap, birria loaded fries and birria consommé at Little Miner Taco in North Bethesda, Maryland.
    Laura Chase de Formigny | The Washington Post | Getty Images

    Birria, which was once known as a regional Mexican food, has taken on a life of its own in the U.S., becoming a social media star and fast-food darling.
    Traditionally, birria is a beef or goat stew, slow cooked with spices and chiles to give the meat lots of flavor. Birria tacos use the slow-cooked meat as a filling and usually include a consommé on the side to dip the taco.

    Over the past four years, birria has seen its presence on restaurant menus grow 412%, largely thanks to midscale and casual-dining chains, according to market research firm Datassential. It has made the jump from Mexican-focused restaurants to eateries with broader menus, such as Sugar Factory’s American dining spots and Bowlero’s bowling alleys.
    Mexican-inspired fast-food brands such as Qdoba, El Pollo Loco, Del Taco and even Taco Bell have released their own versions of birria, turning it into a new menu staple. And the dish is still growing. Datassential predicts that birria’s menu penetration will more than double over the next four years.

    From Jalisco to TikTok

    The Birria Tacos at Mariscos 1133 Restaurant in Washington, D.C.
    Scott Suchman | The Washington Post | Getty Images

    While birria might be newer to U.S. diners, it has been around for centuries in Jalisco, a Mexican state that borders the Pacific Ocean.
    Goats, which were originally brought over by Spaniards, had become an invasive species, and eating them was an easy way to take care of the problem, according to Steven Alvarez, a St. John’s University professor who teaches a class on taco literacy. But making goat tasty required spices and chiles. Slow cooking the meat made it tender.
    “The goat comes from Europe, the chiles — the guajillo peppers, ancho peppers — are native to the Americas, and they come together to make this thing that is distinctly new,” Alvarez said.

    The dish migrated up to Tijuana, Mexico. There, in the 1950s, a taco vendor named Don Guadalupe Zárate swapped out goat for beef because it was cheaper, according to Alvarez. Adding water to make it a stew kept the meat from burning.
    Over the past decade, birria moved north, to Los Angeles, where Mexican immigrants dished out tacos and consommé from food trucks such as Birrieria Gonzalez.
    “What’s beautiful about [southern California] is that the Mexican food is always, constantly regenerated by what’s going on in Mexico, based on the immigration patterns,” Alvarez said.
    More recently, birria took off in New York City, with restaurants and food trucks serving up tacos and consommé across the five boroughs.
    But the true inflection point for birria came thanks to Instagram. Food influencers’ photos of birria tacos, with their beef cascading down into a cup of consommé, made mouths water, and introduced a new audience to the food, according to Alvarez. Once TikTok took off, so did videos of birria, whether for reviews of the restaurants and food trucks serving it or for recipes to make it at home.

    Finding opportunity

    Qdoba’s Brisket Birria, seen here in the chain’s quesadillas.
    Source: Qdoba

    Social media is partly why birria became a staple on Qdoba’s menu.
    Katy Velazquez, director of culinary innovation for Qdoba, was first introduced to birria while in Mexico for a previous job. Later, while back in the U.S., she started seeing the food pick up online, thanks to “sexy cheese pull shots” on social media, she said.
    Cut to the Covid-19 pandemic, when brisket prices were soaring, and Qdoba had to remove its Tex Mex-inspired version of brisket from its menu.
    “We were losing money on every entrée that we sold,” Velazquez said.
    But that loss gave her team the opportunity to create their own take on birria, using brisket as its base. The fast-casual chain’s final product is not made the same way that traditional birria is, but Velazquez and her team aimed to emulate the same flavor and tenderness.
    “We get the benefit of seasonings that have hours of tomatoes that are reduced and simmered and then they get dehydrated and brought into it, so we get the same effect and flavor without hours and hours of work,” she said.
    Qdoba introduced its birria two years ago, replacing its previous brisket entree permanently and charging customers extra for the new protein option. Since the chain is privately owned by Butterfly Equity, it does not disclose its financial results, including more details about the success of the launch.
    This fall, the chain is repromoting its birria offerings, betting that its flavor will appeal to customers looking for a cozy lunch or dinner, Velazquez said.
    “We’re really proud of it, and we’re proud to be able to bring something that was a regional Mexican cuisine to a really large audience at a brand like ours,” she added.

    Birria everything

    Lamb is seasoned for lamb birria in Oakland, California.
    Liz Hafalia | San Francisco Chronicle | Hearst Newspapers | Getty Images

    Birria’s fanbase is not growing just because Qdoba and other large restaurant chains have added it to their menus. It is also because of its own versatility, Christine Couvelier, a culinary trendspotter and founder of the Culinary Concierge, told CNBC.
    “This is a dish that is not about heat — it’s flavor,” Couvelier said. “So when consumers try it on a menu, they aren’t afraid or surprised. This is a flavor that is cooked low and slow.”
    Couvelier envisions many different possible iterations for birria: on top of poutine, in soups and even stuffed in ravioli. She has also started to see some packaged food companies experiment with sauces that include the flavors of birria.
    “It has switched from a specific dish to a protein and can be found across the menu,” said Claire Conaghan, Datassential trendologist and associate director.
    Now that birria is usually made using beef, it can be paired with nearly anything, Conaghan added.
    According to Datassential, tacos are the most popular birria dishes found on menus, but the firm’s Menu Trends platform has also found birria quesadillas, grilled cheese, breakfast dishes and even ramen.
    Birria ramen first popped up in Tijuana, Mexico, according to Alvarez. But it has made its way stateside, and even appeared on Del Taco’s menu.
    Jeremias Aguayo, Del Taco’s senior director of culinary research and development, rejoined the chain’s culinary team in 2022, shortly after Jack in the Box bought Del Taco. He personally took on the goal of creating Del Taco’s take on birria.
    The consommé recipe alone took Aguayo four months and 17 attempts to make just right, he said. At the same time, Del Taco came up with its beef birria recipe. The chain launched its quesabirria taco, birria quesadilla and birria ramen at the same time last November.
    The result was Del Taco’s biggest promotion in years, leading to “big jumps” in sales, traffic and check average, according to Aguayo. Del Taco sold upward of one million birria ramen at more than 600 restaurants over two promotional windows. More

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    China likely needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth

    China’s slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said.
    “We will need a major fiscal policy support to see higher CNY government bond yields,” said Edmund Goh, head of China fixed income at abrdn.
    There’s still a 1 trillion yuan shortfall in spending if Beijing is to meet its fiscal target for the year, according to an analysis by CF40, a major Chinese think tank focusing on finance and macroeconomic policy.

    A China Resources property under construction in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China, Sept 24, 2024. 
    Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    BEIJING — China’s slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said.
    The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday surprised markets by announcing plans to cut a number of rates, including that of existing mortgages. Mainland Chinese stocks jumped on the news.

    The move may mark “the beginning of the end of China’s longest deflationary streak since 1999,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in a note. The country has been struggling with weak domestic demand.
    “The most likely path to reflation, in our view, is through fiscal spending on housing, financed by the PBOC’s balance sheet,” he said, stressing that more fiscal support is needed, in addition to more efforts to bolster the housing market.
    The bond market reflected more caution than stocks. The Chinese 10-year government yield fell to a record low of 2% after the rate cut news, before climbing to around 2.07%. That’s still well below the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield of 3.74%. Bond yields move inversely to price.
    “We will need major fiscal policy support to see higher CNY government bond yields,” said Edmund Goh, head of China fixed income at abrdn. He expects Beijing will likely ramp up fiscal stimulus due to weak growth, despite reluctance so far.
    “The gap between the U.S. and Chinese short end bond rates are wide enough to guarantee that there’s almost no chance that the US rates would drop below those of the Chinese in the next 12 months,” he said. “China is also cutting rates.”

    The differential between U.S. and Chinese government bond yields reflects how market expectations for growth in the world’s two largest economies have diverged. For years, the Chinese yield had traded well above that of the U.S., giving investors an incentive to park capital in the fast-growing developing economy versus slower growth in the U.S.
    That changed in April 2022. The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes sent U.S. yields climbing above their Chinese counterpart for the first time in more than a decade.
    The trend has persisted, with the gap between the U.S. and Chinese yields widening even after the Fed shifted to an easing cycle last week.
    “The market is forming a medium to long-term expectation on the U.S. growth rate, the inflation rate. [The Fed] cutting 50 basis points doesn’t change this outlook much,” said Yifei Ding, senior fixed income portfolio manager at Invesco.
    As for Chinese government bonds, Ding said the firm has a “neutral” view and expects the Chinese yields to remain relatively low.
    China’s economy grew by 5% in the first half of the year, but there are concerns that full-year growth could miss the country’s target of around 5% without additional stimulus. Industrial activity has slowed, while retail sales have grown by barely more than 2% year-on-year in recent months.

    Fiscal stimulus hopes

    China’s Ministry of Finance has remained conservative. Despite a rare increase in the fiscal deficit to 3.8% in Oct. 2023 with the issuance of special bonds, authorities in March this year reverted to their usual 3% deficit target.
    There’s still a 1 trillion yuan shortfall in spending if Beijing is to meet its fiscal target for the year, according to an analysis released Tuesday by CF40, a major Chinese think tank focusing on finance and macroeconomic policy. That’s based on government revenue trends and assuming planned spending goes ahead.
    “If general budget revenue growth does not rebound significantly in the second half of the year, it may be necessary to increase the deficit and issue additional treasury bonds in a timely manner to fill the revenue gap,” the CF40 research report said.
    Asked Tuesday about the downward trend in Chinese government bond yields, PBOC Gov. Pan Gongsheng partly attributed it to a slower increase in government bond issuance. He said the central bank was working with the Ministry of Finance on the pace of bond issuance.
    The PBOC earlier this year repeatedly warned the market about the risks of piling into a one-sided bet that bond prices would only rise, while yields fell.
    Analysts generally don’t expect the Chinese 10-year government bond yield to drop significantly in the near future.
    After the PBOC’s announced rate cuts, “market sentiment has changed significantly, and confidence in the acceleration of economic growth has improved,” Haizhong Chang, executive director of Fitch (China) Bohua Credit Ratings, said in an email. “Based on the above changes, we expect that in the short term, the 10-year Chinese treasury bond will run above 2%, and will not easily fall through.”
    He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus “to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy.”
    That’s because high leverage in Chinese corporates and households makes them unwilling to borrow more, Chang said. “This has also led to a weakening of the marginal effects of loose monetary policy.”

    Breathing room on rates

    The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut last week theoretically eases pressure on Chinese policymakers. Easier U.S. policy weakens the dollar against the Chinese yuan, bolstering exports, a rare bright spot of growth in China.
    China’s offshore yuan briefly hit its strongest level against the U.S. dollar in more than a year on Wednesday morning.
    “Lower U.S. interest rates provide relief on China’s FX market and capital flows, thus easing the external constraint that the high U.S. rates have imposed on the PBOC’s monetary policy in recent years,” Louis Kuijs, APAC Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings, pointed out in an email Monday.
    For China’s economic growth, he is still looking for more fiscal stimulus: “Fiscal expenditure lags the 2024 budget allocation, bond issuance has been slow, and there are no signs of substantial fiscal stimulus plans.” More