Raphael Stevens

What do Barron Trump, son of the president-elect; some Islamic charities in Britain; and America’s legal cannabis industry have in common? This is not a set-up for a bad joke. Rather, all have been at the sharp end of a rise in “debanking”, having lost or been refused access to the services of commercial lenders. More

China’s latest efforts to kickstart growth are just trickling through the economy, data and company earnings show.
“While it will take some time for the positive effect to fully materialize and to further [expand] to more consumption categories, we are confident that these policies will gradually provide more support for the real economy,” said Shaohui Chen, Meituan CFO and senior vice president, according to a recording of a recent earnings call.
“Looking ahead, our sources expect that stimulus in 2025 will trickle out incrementally and in a data-dependent fashion,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, said in a note Monday summarizing a recent trip to China.

A large advertisement touting China’s “trade-in” policy hangs outside a housing construction project in Nanjing, China, on Nov. 29, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

China’s latest efforts to kickstart growth haven’t had a broad impact yet, data and company earnings show, indicating the world’s second-largest economy won’t be roaring back soon.
Growth in pockets from real estate to manufacturing has improved since Beijing began announcing stimulus measures in late September. Companies, however, have maintained a cautious tone when sharing outlooks in the last few weeks.

When asked on an earnings call Friday about the impact of stimulus, food delivery giant Meituan only said that in October, the average hotel order value in its newer travel booking business fell less than in the prior months, on an year-on-year basis.
“While it will take some time for the positive effect to fully materialize and to further [expand] to more consumption categories, we are confident that these policies will gradually provide more support for the real economy and incentivize consumer spending, bringing more growth opportunities for our business,” said Shaohui Chen, Meituan CFO and senior vice president, according to a recording of the earnings call.
Executives from e-commerce company Alibaba and social media operator Tencent shared similar comments last month in their earnings calls, saying stimulus would take time to translate into growth.

The ramp-up in stimulus measures is aimed at reaching this year’s official target of around 5%, and a similar pace next year — while preventing financial instability, Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, said in a note Monday. To him, the tone on the economy indicates that “technological self-sufficiency and national security remain the top priorities” for China.
“Looking ahead, our sources expect that stimulus in 2025 will trickle out incrementally and in a data-dependent fashion,” Wildau said. “‘Just enough’ rather than ‘whatever it takes’ will be the guiding principle.”

Preliminary economic indicators for November reinforce a picture of improving, but not explosive, growth.
The Caixin purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing showed further expansion in factory activity with a print of 51.5, its highest reading since June, according to LSEG data. The official PMI came in at 50.3, the highest since April. Retail sales and industrial data for November are due Dec. 16.
Caixin’s measure of manufacturing labor showed employment contracted for a third straight month in November. That indicates “the effect of economic stimulus is yet to be felt in the labor market and businesses’ confidence in expanding workforce needs to be strengthened,” Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in a report.
“While the economic downturn appears to be bottoming out, it needs further consolidation,” Wang said, noting the rising risk of “external uncertainties.”
The U.S. on Monday issued yet another round of restrictions aimed at crimping Chinese chipmakers. President-elect Donald Trump last week announced plans to impose 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports of Chinese goods once he takes office in January.
“Markets will only be salivating for more and more stimulus as the geopolitical temperature rises,” according to U.S.-based advisory firm China Beige Book’s survey of Chinese businesses released Monday.
The firm surveyed 1,502 companies from Nov. 14 to Nov. 26, and found that retail spending improved from a year ago, along with home sales, despite “widespread” weakness in consumption of services. The report also noted that the share of the respondents borrowing more rose to the highest since May 2022, indicating a pickup in demand.
“Beijing’s stimulus measures encouraged firms to come off the sidelines this month,” the report said. “But it’s unlikely to last without pledges of additional support.”
China’s Ministry of Finance has said more fiscal support could come next year. Investors are also watching for details from China’s annual economic planning meeting, typically held in mid-December. More

More companies are choosing to offer a 401(k) plan match to workers who are paying off their student loans.
A recent law, Secure 2.0, allowed employers to essentially treat student loan payments like a 401(k) contribution for the purposes of offering a match, starting in 2024.
Large companies such as Kraft, Workday, News Corp., and Comcast are early adopters.
Most employers are not yet offering or planning to offer the benefit, though.

Morsa Images | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Companies can now offer their workers a “match” on their student loan payments in the form of a contribution to their 401(k) plan — and a small but growing number of employers are taking advantage of the option.
Traditionally, companies have only paid a 401(k) match to workers based on their voluntary contributions to the workplace retirement plan. A worker choosing to save 3% of their annual pay in a 401(k) might get a 3% match from their employer, for example.

Now, companies can treat a worker’s student loan payments like an elective 401(k) plan contribution.
Federal law allows employers to give a match based on a worker’s payments toward student debt. Workers generally don’t have to contribute to the 401(k) plan to qualify for the funds.
The measure, part of a package of retirement changes dubbed Secure 2.0, kicked in starting in 2024.

Kraft, Workday among companies adding the benefit

The policy’s goal is to help workers tackle two competing financial obligations: paying down debt and simultaneously saving for retirement.
More than 100 companies have implemented the benefit to date, covering almost 1.5 million eligible employees, according to data from Fidelity, the nation’s largest 401(k) plan administrator.

They include “some of the largest firms in the U.S.,” such as Kraft, Workday and News Corp., Jesse Moore, senior vice president and head of student debt at Fidelity, said in an e-mail.
“Many more [are] showing strong interest in offering it in 2025,” Moore said.

About 5% of employers have already added the benefit, according to forthcoming survey results from Alight, one of the largest U.S. retirement plan administrators.
An additional 12% of employers say they are “very likely” to adopt it in 2025, while 29% are “moderately likely” to do so, according to Alight. It polled 122 employers, with a total of 11 million workers, in September.
Interest in the benefit has grown largely due to Secure 2.0, Rob Austin, head of thought leadership at Alight, said in an e-mail.

Financial help and worker retention

Comcast is among the employers adding a student loan-401(k) match benefit in 2025. A Comcast spokesperson said offering the benefit will help workers “manage their long-term financial wellness” in a tax-efficient way.
About 90,000 U.S. employees are eligible for the match, on up to 6% of their eligible annual earnings, the spokesperson said.
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Some companies also see the match program as a way to attract and retain college graduates in competitive fields, experts said.
“We’ve heard from many employees that they struggle with student loans,” especially those early in their careers, the Comcast spokesperson said. “We’re trying to build a value proposition that meets [workers’] needs.”
The student loan measure is also available to companies that sponsor other types of workplace retirement plans, such as 403(b) or governmental 457(b) plans or SIMPLE IRAs, according to the Internal Revenue Service.

How the student loan benefit works

Thomas Barwick

The maximum amount of “qualified student loan payments” is generally the annual salary deferral, or contribution, limit, according to Brian Dobbis, retirement solutions lead at Lord Abbett, a money manager. That 401(k) limit is $23,000 in 2024 for workers under age 50.
Here’s a general example: A 30-year-old participates in a 401(k) plan in 2024. The worker chooses to contribute $18,000 to the plan. If they also pay $8,000 toward their student loans that year, only $5,000 ($23,000 minus $18,000) of those repayments is eligible to be matched, Dobbis said.
The worker’s ultimate match amount is dictated by employers’ respective match cap, commonly set around 3% to 6% of a worker’s annual salary.
Of course, companies may structure the benefit somewhat differently from one another.

Companies had the benefit prior to Secure 2.0

Employers had begun offering a 401(k)-linked student loan benefit even before Secure 2.0.
Abbott, a health-care technology company, has provided a similar benefit since 2018, through its “Freedom 2 Save” program, which was thought to be the first of its kind. The company secured a private letter ruling from the IRS to be able to do so.
More companies have followed since.
In 2022, for example, about 1% of all 401(k) plans were offering or planned to offer a match based on student loan payments, according to an annual survey by the Plan Sponsor Council of America, a trade group. By 2023, that share had increased to about 2%, according to the group’s latest poll, of 709 employers, set to be published this month.

“Pharmaceutical companies are among the earliest adopters, most likely because Abbott pioneered this idea, and competitors followed,” said Austin of Alight.
The share jumped most — to almost 5% in 2023 from 2% in 2022 — among the largest firms, or those with more than 5,000 employees, PSCA found.
It seems there has been “increased interest” among firms with a big cohort of college-educated workers, said Hattie Greenan, PSCA’s research director.
“We will continue to see this number slowly increase as those companies look for ways to differentiate their benefits packages to compete for top talent, and as some of the administrative complexities are worked out,” Greenan said.

Why many firms aren’t adding a student loan match

Morsa Images | Digitalvision | Getty Images

However, most companies are still sitting on the sidelines.
For example, 55% of employers say they are “not at all likely” to add the provision in 2025, according to Alight’s survey.
There are a few reasons businesses may not want to implement the measure, said Ellen Lander, founder of Renaissance Benefit Advisors Group, based in Pearl River, New York.

For one, employers may already offer a different education benefit to their workforce. Further, companies, especially those with many higher earners, may not feel they need the benefit if there isn’t evidence of lagging 401(k) participation even among those with student debt, she said.
Some employers may already make a non-elective contribution to workers each year, such as a profit-sharing contribution, even to workers who don’t participate in the company 401(k), Lander said.
Lander said one of her clients viewed the student loan policy as “unfair,” since it applied to only a certain subset of workers, i.e., those with student debt.
She said none of her clients have yet chosen to adopt it.
“I would hope every client is discussing it with their consultant,” Lander said. “To me, it’s something you should definitely consider. And then you need to get into the weeds: Do you need it?”
Disclosure: Comcast owns CNBC parent company NBCUniversal. More

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday he isn’t worried that President-elect Donald Trump will try to politicize the central bank once he takes office in January.
There are safeguards in the congressional legislation that created the central bank that will help preserve it from political influences, he said during an appearance in New York.
Powell provided no clues as to which way he’s leaning on the near-term path for interest rates, though he did note that the Fed can afford to be cautious because of the strength of the U.S. economy.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, right, speaks during the New York Times DealBook Summit at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024. 
Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

NEW YORK — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday he isn’t worried President-elect Donald Trump will try to politicize the central bank once he takes office in January.
The question of Fed independence has come up over the past several months, amid reports that Trump may try to pull strings on monetary policy both by legislation and possibly by installing a “shadow chair” who could undermine Powell’s authority.

However, Powell said there are safeguards in the congressional legislation that created the Fed that will help preserve it from political influences.
“What does independent mean? It means we can make our decisions without them being reversed,” he told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin during an on-stage interview at the New York Times’ DealBook Summit.
“That gives us the ability to make these decisions for the benefit of all Americans at all times, not for any particular political party or political outcome,” he added. “We’re supposed to achieve maximum employment and price stability for the benefit of all Americans and keep it out of the politics completely.”
Powell provided no clues as to which way he’s leaning on the near-term path for interest rates, though he did note that the Fed can afford to be cautious. As he has said before, Powell said the U.S. economy is “the envy of other large economies around the world,” which affords the Fed the ability to be patient as it contemplates future rate moves.
The Fed’s next rate decision comes in two weeks. Markets are placing about a 75% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut its key borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point. The expectation is that the Fed then skips the January meeting before cutting a few more times in 2025.

During his first stint in office, Trump hurled sharp criticism at the Fed and Powell, whom he nominated. In the months leading up to this year’s election, Trump advocated for allowing the president a say when the the central bank is making decisions on interest rates.
Though many presidents have tried to exert influence over the Fed, Trump was the most public about it. Still, Powell said he believes there’s strong support in Congress to keep the Fed’s decision-making apart from the political swirl in Washington.
“I think there is very, very broad support for that set of ideas in Congress in both political parties on both sides of the Hill, and that’s what really matters,” he said. “It’s the law of the land, and I’m not concerned that there’s some risk that we would lose our statutory independence.”
The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Source: Finance – cnbc.com More