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    NBA says Amazon will be its new media partner, rebuffing Warner Bros. Discovery attempt to match deal

    The NBA said it does not believe Warner Bros. Discovery can exercise its right to match Amazon’s new media rights package.
    The league said it will move forward with Amazon as the third media partner in its new 11-year rights deal, along with ESPN and NBCUniversal.
    Warner Bros. Discovery responded to the league’s statement saying it doesn’t believe the NBA can reject the matching rights.

    Luka Doncic, #77 of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics during Game 5 of the 2024 NBA Finals at the TD Garden in Boston on June 17, 2024.
    Nathaniel S. Butler | National Basketball Association | Getty Images

    The NBA has rebuffed longtime media partner Warner Bros. Discovery’s bid to keep airing games after next season.
    The league told the media company it doesn’t believe it holds legal matching rights for the new media deal. It instead plans to move ahead with Amazon as its third partner, along with ESPN and NBCUniversal, in its 11-year deal worth about $77 billion.

     “Warner Bros. Discovery’s most recent proposal did not match the terms of Amazon Prime Video’s offer and, therefore, we have entered into a long-term arrangement with Amazon,” the NBA said in a statement Wednesday.
    Warner Bros. Discovery acquired matching rights as part of its current media rights deal with the league, which expires at the end of next season. That provision allows the company to match payment for any of the games that air on TNT, which it attempted to do Monday.
    The NBA doesn’t believe Warner Bros. Discovery’s rights extend to an all-streaming package, which was carved out for Amazon. Warner Bros. Discovery also owns a streaming service, Max, which it could use to air games, but the company has told the NBA it plans to simulcast TNT games on Max rather than only putting them on Max.
    The NBA sent a letter Wednesday to Warner Bros. Discovery, addressed to TNT Sports chairman and CEO Luis Silberwasser, explaining why it can’t match Amazon’s package, citing language from the original matching provision, according to people familiar with the matter.
    The NBA cited a provision that said the existing media partner can exercise matching rights “only via the specific form of combined audio and video distribution (e.g. if the specific form of combined audio and video distribution is internet distribution, a matching incumbent may not exercise such games rights via television distribution).”

    In its statement, the NBA said that “throughout these negotiations, our primary objective has been to maximize the reach and accessibility of our games for our fans. Our new arrangement with Amazon supports this goal by complementing the broadcast, cable and streaming packages that are already part of our new Disney and NBCUniversal arrangements.”
    “All three partners have also committed substantial resources to promote the league and enhance the fan experience,” the league added. “We are grateful to Turner Sports for its award-winning coverage of the NBA and look forward to another season of the NBA on TNT.”
    Warner Bros. Discovery said Monday it matched one of the NBA’s three media rights packages, which people familiar with the matter identified as the $1.8 billion per-year deal earmarked for Amazon Prime Video. Disney and Comcast’s NBCUniversal signed deals for the other two packages, part of the league’s $77 billion media rights renewal over 11 years.
    “We have matched the Amazon offer, as we have a contractual right to do, and do not believe the NBA can reject it,” Warner Bros. Discovery said in a statement on Wednesday. “In doing so, they are rejecting the many fans who continue to show their unwavering support for our best-in-class coverage, delivered through the full combined reach of WBD’s video-first distribution platforms — including TNT, home to our four-decade partnership with the league, and Max, our leading streaming service.”
    “We think they have grossly misinterpreted our contractual rights with respect to the 2025-26 season and beyond, and we will take appropriate action,” the statement continued. “We look forward, however, to another great season of the NBA on TNT and Max including our iconic Inside the NBA.”
    Warner Bros. Discovery’s Turner Sports has carried live NBA games for nearly 40 years. The cable network TNT is home to “Inside the NBA,” the popular studio show starring Ernie Johnson, Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and Shaquille O’Neal. The future of the show is in doubt if the NBA doesn’t strike a deal with Warner Bros. Discovery.
    The league also wants its streaming partner to have maximum reach. Amazon Prime Video has more than twice as many global customers — more than 200 million to Max’s roughly 100 million — which may make the service a more appealing platform for the league. The streaming rights are global, even though Warner Bros. Discovery is only bidding on U.S. rights, according to people familiar with the language in the contract.
    Warner Bros. Discovery may need to sue the NBA to claim its matching rights. Lawyers for the company and the NBA have been poring over contractual language for the past several months, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Details of the new NBA rights deal

    Disney is paying $2.62 billion per year for its package of games and NBCUniversal is paying $2.45 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The new rights deal begins with the 2025-26 season and runs through the 2035-36 season.
    The NBA application will be a central portal for games, directing consumers to each national game, whether it is on broadcast, cable TV or a streaming service. About 75 regular-season games will be on broadcast TV each season, up from 15 games in the current rights deal. The league will have two broadcast stations as partners — Disney’s ABC and NBCUniversal’s NBC.
    “Our new global media agreements with Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon will maximize the reach and accessibility of NBA games for fans in the United States and around the world,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said in a statement. “These partners will distribute our content across a wide range of platforms and help transform the fan experience over the next decade.”
    Disney will distribute 80 NBA regular-season games per season, including more than 20 games on ABC and up to 60 games on ESPN. ABC and ESPN will have one of the two conference finals series in 10 of the 11 years of the agreement. ABC will remain the exclusive home of the NBA Finals, which it has broadcast since 2003.
    NBCUniversal will return as a league broadcasting partner after losing NBA rights in 2002. NBCUniversal will air 100 NBA games each regular season, including about 50 that will be exclusive to its streaming platform Peacock, according to CEO Mike Cavanagh.
    “We are proud to once again partner with the NBA and WNBA, two iconic brands and the home of the best basketball in the world,” Cavanagh in a statement. “We look forward to presenting our best-in-class coverage of both leagues with our innovative programming and distribution plan across NBC and Peacock to entertain fans and help grow the game.”
    WNBA games are also a part of all three packages. The partners will distribute more than 125 regular-season games and playoff games nationally each season. Disney will air a minimum of 25 regular-season games, NBCUniversal will carry 50 regular-season and playoff games on its platforms, and Prime Video will get 30 regular-season games, assuming Warner Bros. Discovery can’t match Amazon’s package.
    Disclosure: NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.

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    Chipotle earnings and revenue top estimates, restaurant traffic rises again

    Chipotle Mexican Grill said its restaurant traffic increased 8.7% in the second quarter.
    The restaurant company beat Wall Street’s estimates for its quarterly earnings and revenue.
    Chipotle reiterated its full-year outlook for same-store sales growth.

    A Chipotle restaurant in New York on July 3, 2023.
    Jeenah Moon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Chipotle Mexican Grill on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations as it saw higher traffic at its restaurants, bucking an industry slowdown.
    Shares of the company rose about 13% in extended trading before losing most of those gains and settling around 3% higher. As of Wednesday’s close, Chipotle’s stock had slid 17% this month, hurt by investor concerns about the health of the restaurant industry. In late June, the company executed a 50-for-1 stock split.

    Here is what the company reported for the quarter that ended in June 30 compared to what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: 34 cents adjusted vs. 32 cents expected
    Revenue: $2.97 billion vs. $2.94 billion expected

    The burrito chain reported second-quarter net income of $455.7 million, or 33 cents per share, up from $341.8 million, or 25 cents per share, a year earlier. Chipotle’s profits rose from the year-ago period due to price hikes that helped offset higher avocado prices and greater usage of oil to fry tortilla chips this quarter.
    Excluding items, Chipotle earned 34 cents per share.
    Net sales climbed 18.2% to $2.97 billion.
    The company’s same-store sales rose 11.1% in the quarter, topping StreetAccount estimates of 9.2%.

    Demand for its food peaked in April, CEO Brian Niccol said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Wednesday. Same-store sales settled around 6% higher in June. Executives said that July has been more difficult to understand, given the Fourth of July holiday, weather disruptions in Texas and a recent tech outage.
    Traffic to its restaurants increased 8.7% despite backlash on social media fueled by customers who said their burrito bowls are smaller. The company has denied reducing its portions but is now training its employees to ensure that customers will be happy with the size of their burrito bowls, which will put some pressure on profit margins.
    “We have focused in on those with outlier portion scores based on consumer surveys, and we are re-emphasizing training and coaching around ensuring we are consistently making bowls and burritos correctly,” Niccol told analysts on the company’s conference call. “We have also leaned in and re-emphasized generous portions across all of our restaurants, as it is a core brand equity of Chipotle.”
    The company is also gaining market share, and restaurant transactions grew across every income level, Niccol said. Other consumer companies, from PepsiCo to McDonald’s, have said in recent months that low-income customers are pulling back more, pressuring their sales. Chipotle, similar to many fast-casual chains, benefits from a customer base that tends to make higher incomes.
    The chain brought back its chicken al pastor in March as a limited-time menu item. More customers have also been ordering its barbacoa, which underwent a name change earlier this year that added “braised beef” to improve customer awareness of the option.
    Chipotle opened 52 new company-owned locations and one new international licensed restaurant during the quarter.
    The company reiterated its full-year outlook that same-store sales will grow by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage. Chipotle also anticipates that it will open between 285 and 315 new restaurants this year.

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    Ford shares tumble 11% after massive earnings miss

    Ford Motor came in short of Wall Street’s second-quarter earnings expectations while beating on revenue, due to warranty costs that have plagued the automaker for several years now.
    The automaker increased its target for free cash flow but maintained its 2024 earnings guidance, disappointing some investors who had hoped for a hike.
    Ford CEO Jim Farley told investors Wednesday that his Ford+ restructuring plan remains on track to make the automaker more profitable.

    The Ford display at the New York International Auto Show on March 28, 2024. 
    Danielle DeVries | CNBC

    DETROIT — Ford Motor came in short of Wall Street’s second-quarter earnings expectations while beating on revenue, due to warranty costs that have plagued the automaker for several years now.
    The automaker increased its full-year target for free cash flow but maintained its 2024 earnings guidance, disappointing some investors who had hoped for a hike. Ford’s guidance for the year includes adjusted earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, of between $10 billion and $12 billion.

    Shares of the automaker were down about 11% after markets closed. The stock closed Wednesday at $13.67 per share.
    Here is how the company did, compared to estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: 47 cents adjusted vs. 68 cents expected
    Automotive revenue: $44.81 billion vs. $44.02 billion expected

    The Detroit automaker said its profitability was affected by increases in its warranty reserves used to pay for vehicle issues. The costs are related to vehicles for the 2021 model year or older, Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler said during a media briefing.
    Ford said recent initiatives to improve quality and vehicle launches are paying off and are expected to help bring down future warranty costs.
    “We’re making real progress in raising quality, lowering costs and reducing complexity across our entire enterprise,” Lawler said during a media briefing. “We’re making real progress on quality that will benefit us down the road.”

    Lawler declined to disclose Ford’s total warranty cost for the second quarter but said it was $800 million more than the previous quarter.

    Stock chart icon

    Performance of several auto stocks in 2024.

    Net income for the second quarter was $1.83 billion, or 46 cents per share, compared to $1.92 billion, or 47 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusted EBIT declined 27% year over year to $2.76 billion, or 47 cents per share, compared to $3.79 billion, or 72 cents per share, during the second quarter of 2023.
    Ford’s overall revenue for the second quarter, including its finance business, increased about 6% year over year to $47.81 billion.
    Ford CEO Jim Farley told investors Wednesday that his Ford+ restructuring plan remains on track to make the automaker more profitable.
    “We are absolutely a different company than we were three years ago,” Farley said during the company’s earnings call, noting the “remaking of Ford is not without growing pains.”
    Ford’s traditional business operations, known as Ford Blue, earned $1.17 billion during the second quarter, while its Ford Pro commercial business earned $2.56 billion. Its “Model e” electric vehicle unit lost $1.14 billion from April through June.
    The Ford+ plan initially focused heavily on EVs when it was announced in May 2021 during the company’s first investor day under Farley, who took over the helm of the automaker in October 2020. It has since shifted to focus more on customer choice and next-generation EVs to drive profits.
    Farley said Ford’s “more realistic and sharpened” EV plan, including focusing on a small next-generation EV platform, will prove worthwhile for the company in the years ahead.
    As of Wednesday’s close, Ford’s stock was up more than 10% this year, as pricing in the automotive industry has remained more resilient than expected, but some Wall Street analysts believe automaker profits may have peaked.
    “We don’t see the second half being much different than the first half, or falling off,” Lawler said. “There’s going to be puts and takes in any half of the year … that was part of our guidance, and we’re planning on managing that.”
    There was pressure on Ford to raise its guidance after crosstown rival General Motors raised its yearly guidance Tuesday for the second time this year.
    GM’s second-quarter results also beat Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations, but the automaker’s stock on Tuesday declined 6.4%.

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    Pfizer’s gene therapy for rare genetic bleeding disorder succeeds in late-stage trial

    Pfizer said its experimental gene therapy for a rare genetic blood-clotting disorder succeeded in a large late-stage trial, paving the way for a potential approval.
    The hemophilia A treatment could become the company’s second gene therapy to enter the U.S. market after Beqvez, which was cleared in April for hemophilia B.
    Pfizer is among several drugmakers to invest in the rapidly growing field of gene and cell therapies — one-time, high-cost treatments that target a patient’s genetic source or cell to cure or significantly alter the course of a disease.

    Kena Betancur | Corbis News | Getty Images

    Pfizer on Wednesday said its experimental gene therapy for a rare genetic blood-clotting disorder succeeded in a large late-stage trial, paving the way for a potential approval.
    The treatment for hemophilia A could become the company’s second gene therapy to enter the U.S. market after Beqvez, which was cleared in April for a less common type of the bleeding disorder called hemophilia B. 

    Pfizer is co-developing the therapy with Sangamo Therapeutics, whose shares closed nearly 40% higher on Wednesday following the data release before paring some of those gains. Pfizer’s stock closed up more than 1%.
    Pfizer is among several drugmakers to invest in the rapidly growing field of gene and cell therapies — one-time, costly treatments that target a patient’s genetic source or cell to cure or significantly alter the course of a disease. Some industry health experts anticipate those therapies to replace traditional lifelong treatments that patients take to manage chronic conditions.
    Hemophilia A is a lifelong disease caused by a lack of blood-clotting protein called factor VIII. Without enough of that protein, the blood cannot clot properly, increasing the risk of spontaneous bleeding and severe bleeding after surgery. The condition occurs in roughly 25 in every 100,000 male births worldwide, Pfizer said in a release, citing data. 
    Pfizer said its one-time treatment significantly cut the number of annual bleeding episodes in patients with moderately severe to severe hemophilia A from week 12 to at least 15 months. The company said the drug also performed better than the current standard treatment for the disease, which is routine infusions that replace the Factor VIII protein.

    More CNBC health coverage

    “For people living with hemophilia A, the physical and emotional impact of needing to prevent and treat bleeding episodes through frequent IV infusions or injections cannot be underestimated,” said Dr. Andrew Leavitt, the lead investigator of the trial, in a statement. 

    Pfizer said the study is ongoing and it will present additional data at upcoming medical meetings.
    If approved, Pfizer’s therapy will compete with BioMarin Pharmaceutical’s one-time treatment Roctavian. BioMarin’s therapy has had a slow rollout since it won approval in the U.S. last year, raising questions about how many patients would take Pfizer’s drug if it enters the market.
    BioMarin is reportedly considering whether to divest its hemophilia A therapy, which costs $2.9 million.

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    AMC warns of second-quarter earnings ‘weakness,’ with revenue and profit down

    AMC Entertainment on Wednesday warned investors of declines in key metrics during the second quarter, sending shares down.
    The company blamed last year’s actors and writers strike for a slowdown in theatrical releases which ultimately led to “weakness” in the quarter ended June 30.
    AMC’s preliminary results revealed revenue down more than 23% during the period and a net loss, compared with a profit during the same period a year earlier.

    The AMC 25 Theatres in Times Square in New York is seen on Tuesday, July 8, 2014.
    Richard Levine | Corbis News | Getty Images

    AMC Entertainment warned investors of declines in key metrics during the second quarter, sending its shares down nearly 8% during trading Wednesday.
    The company blamed last year’s actors and writers strike for a slowdown in theatrical releases which ultimately led to “weakness” in the quarter ended June 30.

    AMC’s preliminary results revealed revenue down more than 23% during the period to $1.03 billion. It also said it expects to post a net loss of $32.8 million compared with a profit of $8.6 million in the second quarter of 2023. Full results will be posted Aug. 2.
    “As we accurately predicted and previously disclosed, the prolonged actors and writers strikes of 2023 severely reduced the number of movies being released theatrically in the early months of 2024,” Adam Aron, chairman and CEO of AMC Entertainment, said in a statement. “This explains the weakness in our preliminary Q2 2024 results, as contrasted with the same quarter of a year ago.”
    The theatrical industry has gotten a boost in the last month after a pandemic-driven slump, as moviegoers have returned in droves for films like Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” Universal and Illumination’s “Despicable Me 4,” Universal’s “Twisters” and the surprise indie horror flick “Longlegs” from Neon.
    “But if looking only at the full quarter, the lay observer might easily miss the incredibly good news that transpired within the second quarter,” Aron said. “Finally, moviegoing in theatres appears again to be on an upwards trajectory.”
    Still to come is the much-anticipated release of Disney and Marvel’s “Deadpool and Wolverine,” which is expected to have the highest opening of 2024 and for any R-rated film ever.

    And some heavy hitters are coming during the last stretch of the year. “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” arrives in early September, “Joker: Folie a Deux” hits in October alongside “Venom: The Last Dance,” and November sees “Gladiator II,” “Moana 2” and “Wicked.” Additionally, December will have “Kraven the Hunter,” “Sonic the Hedgehog 3″ and “Mufasa: The Lion King.”
    “AMC continues to be confident that industry-wide movie revenues for the second half of 2024, and into 2025 and 2026 will continue to show increasing strength,” Aron said. “This in turn suggests that AMC should enjoy increasing adjusted EBITDA, if as and when overall industry revenues are climbing. Such improvements in revenues, earnings and adjusted EBITDA are our current expectations going forward, all of which shine brightly on AMC’s future.”
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.

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    Job seekers are sour on the cooling labor market

    Job seekers are feeling less confident about their ability to land a new gig.
    The labor market has cooled from a red-hot pace in 2021 and 2022. The unemployment rate has increased and businesses aren’t hiring as readily.
    While data suggest the labor market remains strong, further cooling could be troublesome, economists said.

    Nitat Termmee | Moment | Getty Images

    Workers are souring on the state of the job market.
    Job seeker confidence in Q2 2024 fell to its lowest level in more than two years, according to a quarterly survey by ZipRecruiter, which has tracked the metric since Q1 2022. That decline suggests workers are more pessimistic about their ability to land their preferred jobs.

    Workers had reason for euphoria two to three years ago: The job market was red-hot and, by many metrics, historically strong.
    It has remained remarkably resilient even in the face of an aggressive interest-rate-hiking campaign by U.S. Federal Reserve to tame high inflation.
    However, the labor market has slowed gradually. Workers are now having a harder time finding jobs and the labor market, while still solid, could be in trouble if it continues to cool, economists said.

    “There actually now is reason in the data to understand why job seekers are feeling kind of gloomy,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “The labor market really is deteriorating and jobseekers are noticing.”
    Demand for workers surged in 2021 as Covid-19 vaccines rolled out and the U.S. economy reopened broadly.

    Job openings hit record highs, giving workers ample choice. Businesses competed for talent by raising wages quickly. By January 2023, the unemployment rate touched 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969.
    More from Personal Finance:You may get a smaller pay raise next yearWhy employees are less interested in workCFPB cracks down on popular paycheck advance programs
    Workers were able to quit their jobs readily for better, higher-paying ones, a period that came to be known as the great resignation or the great reshuffling. More than 50 million people quit in 2022, a record high.
    The U.S. economy was able to avoid the recession that many economists had predicted even as inflation declined significantly. However, many Americans still felt downbeat on the economy, a so-called “vibecession” — a sentiment that persists despite the overall economy’s relative strength.
    Many job metrics have fallen back to their rough pre-pandemic levels, however. The rate of hiring by employers is at its lowest since 2017.
    “The postpandemic excesses of the U.S. job market have largely subsided,” Preston Caldwell, senior U.S. economist for Morningstar Research Services, recently wrote.

    The unemployment rate has also ticked up to 4.1% as of June 2024. While that rate is “consistent with a strong labor market,” its steady rise is the “troubling factor,” Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in early July.
    The labor market’s broad readjustment has been “mostly welcome” as it comes back into its pre-pandemic balance, Bunker said. But any further cooling “is a riskier proposition,” he said.

    “For now, the labor market remains robust, but the future is uncertain,” he wrote in early July after the federal government’s latest batch of monthly jobs data. “Today’s report shows the temperature of the labor market is still pleasant, but if current trends continue the weather could get uncomfortably cold.”
    Worker sentiment could rebound if and when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, which could help households by reducing borrowing costs, Pollak said.
    “People seize on good news and get very excited,” she said. More

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    ‘Inside Out 2’ is now the highest-grossing animated movie of all time, surpassing ‘Frozen II’

    Disney and Pixar’s ‘Inside Out 2’ is now the highest-grossing animated movie of all time, surpassing Walt Disney Animation’s “Frozen II” for the box office crown.
    The record-breaking box office for “Inside Out 2” comes after a series of theatrical hits and misses from the company, especially for its animated releases.
    The film has yet to open in Japan, a region that contributed nearly $33 million to the $850.5 million global total of “Inside Out” in 2015.

    Amy Poehler and Maya Hawke voice Joy and Anxiety, respectively, in Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2.”
    Disney | Pixar

    Disney is back on top at the box office.
    On Tuesday, “Inside Out 2” surpassed $1.46 billion in global ticket sales, making it the highest-grossing animated feature of all time, usurping another Disney title, “Frozen II.” Its box office will continue to grow. The film has yet to open in Japan, a region that contributed nearly $33 million to the $850.5 million global total of “Inside Out” in 2015.

    The record-breaking box office for “Inside Out 2” comes after a series of theatrical hits and misses from the company, especially from its animated releases.
    In particular, Pixar has suffered at the box office in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Much of its difficulties have come, in part, because Disney opted to debut a handful of animated features directly on streaming service Disney+ during theatrical closures and even once cinemas had reopened.
    As a result, before “Inside Out 2,” no Disney animated feature from Pixar or its Walt Disney Animation studio had generated more than $480 million at the global box office since 2019.
    Of note, Disney does not consider its 2019 “The Lion King” to be an animated feature despite nearly the entire film being computer animated. It is considered a live-action remake, according to the company. Otherwise, it would be the highest-grossing animated feature, as it collected more than $1.6 billion during its theatrical run. Box office analysts adhere to Disney’s categorization of the film.

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    Here’s why you may get a smaller pay raise next year

    The typical worker will get a 4.1% annual raise for 2025, down from 4.5%, according to a WTW survey.
    That growth is still high relative to the recent past.
    Company pay increases are largely dictated by supply-and-demand dynamics in the labor market.
    The job market has cooled from a scorching level in 2021 and 2022.

    Hinterhaus Productions | Stone | Getty Images

    Many workers will see their annual raise shrink next year as the job market continues to cool from its torrid pace in the pandemic era.
    The typical worker will get a 4.1% pay raise for 2025, down from 4.5% this year, according to a new poll by WTW, a consulting firm.

    This is a midyear estimate from 1,888 U.S. organizations that use a fiscal calendar year. Actual raises may change by year-end when the companies finalize their salary budgets.

    The size of workers’ salary increases is “driven primarily” by the supply and demand of labor, said Lori Wisper, WTW’s work and rewards global solutions leader. Affordability and industry dynamics play lesser roles, she added.
    Companies in the survey would likely pay their annual raises by April 1, 2025, she said.

    Job market was ‘unbelievably robust’

    Worker pay in 2021 and 2022 grew at its fastest pace in well over a decade amid an “unbelievably robust” job market, Wisper said.
    Demand for workers hit records as Covid-19 vaccines rolled out and the U.S. economy reopened broadly. Workers quit their jobs readily for better, higher-paying ones, a trend dubbed the great resignation. More than 50 million people quit in 2022, a record.

    Companies had to raise salaries more than usual to compete for scarce talent and retain employees.

    The prevalence of incentives like signing bonuses also “grew dramatically,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.
    Almost 7% of online job listings offered a signing bonus in 2021, roughly double the pre-pandemic share, according to ZipRecruiter data. The percentage has dropped to 3.8% in 2024.
    “I’m not sure I’ll ever see that kind of job market in my lifetime again,” Wisper said of 2021 and 2022.
    More from Personal Finance:CFPB cracks down on popular paycheck advance programsWhy employees are less interested in workWhy a job is ‘becoming more compelling’ for teens
    Now, the job market has cooled. Hiring, quits and job openings have declined and the unemployment rate has increased.
    Companies may feel they don’t need to offer as much money if they’re not getting as many applications and have fewer job openings, Pollak said.

    Almost half — 47% — of U.S. organizations expect their salary budgets to be lower for 2025, according to WTW. (Companies set a salary budget and use that pool of money to pay raises to workers.)  
    The current environment “feels like we’re seeing more normal circumstances, where demand is back to where it was pre-pandemic in 2018 and 2019, which was still a very healthy job market,” Wisper said.
    Additionally, after two years of declining buying power amid high inflation, the lessening of pricing pressures in recent months has boosted workers’ buying power.

    Still high relative to recent past

    While the typical 4.1% projected raise is smaller than that during the last pay cycle, it’s “still kind of high” relative to recent years, according to Wisper.
    For example, the median annual pay raise had largely hovered around 3% in the years after the 2008 financial crisis, she said.

    The increase to more than 4% during the pandemic era was notable: Salary growth tends to fall instead of rise, Wisper said. For example, it was around 4.5% to 5% in the years leading up to the financial crisis, and had never fully recovered, she said.
    It’s “something that’s never happened before,” Wisper said. “And [the raises] have stuck, to a degree.”

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