Raphael Stevens

Home sales in June were flat compared with a year ago.
There were 1.53 million units for sale at the end of June, an increase of 15.9% year over year.
Home prices in June hit a record high for the month.

Homes in Los Angeles, California, US, on Sunday, July 13, 2025. Like in the broader US market, home sales have slowed in Southern California as high interest rates and economic uncertainty chill demand.
Eric Thayer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Sales of previously owned homes in June fell 2.7% from May to 3.93 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Analysts had expected a drop of just 0.7%. Sales were unchanged from June 2024.
This report is based on closings, so contracts that were likely signed in April and May, when the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped above 7% a few times and never went below 6.8%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

“High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR, in a release. “If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters becoming first-time homeowners and elevated sales activity from existing homeowners.”
Mortgage rates have not moved markedly in the last several months, remaining stubbornly high amid concerns over the broader economy. The average rate now is 6.77%.

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Supply continues to gain, with 1.53 million units for sale at the end of June. That is an increase of 15.9% year over year and represents a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace. A six-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller, so the market is still lean.
The median price of a home sold in June was $435,300, up 2% year over year and another record high for the month of June. That is the 24th consecutive month of annual increases.
“Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price. Home construction continues to lag population growth. This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market,” said Yun, noting also that the average homeowner’s wealth increased by $140,900 over the past five years.

Sales continue to outperform on the higher end of the market. Homes priced below $100,000 dropped 5% annually. Homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 rose 5%. And homes priced above $1 million jumped 14%.
Houses are spending longer on the market, at an average of 27 days compared with 22 days last June. Higher-end homes are selling faster than those priced below $500,000.
First-time buyers represented 30% of sales. Historically that demographic makes up 40% of all buyers. The share of all-cash deals remained elevated at 29% of sales. Pre-Covid, cash sales accounted for roughly 20% of the market.
Homes listed received an average of 2.4 offers, down slightly from 2.5 last month and from 2.9 a year earlier.

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Capital gains taxes on homes are exempt up to $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for couples.
The median price of a home sold in June was $435,300, according to the NAR.
The share of homes priced above $750,000 that sold during the month was 17%.

A Sold sign in front of a home under construction at the Waterways subdivision in Gulf Shores, Alabama, US, on Friday, Dec. 6, 2024.
Micah Green | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Real estate experts are weighing in on a potential end to capital gains tax on home sales — as floated by President Donald Trump this week — and whether it could help unlock the housing market.
The capital gains tax on homes hasn’t changed in roughly 30 years, but the National Association of Realtors has been pushing for it. They calculate that 15% of current homeowners would be hit with the tax should they sell in today’s market.

“Their accountants are saying don’t sell the home because of the tax,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, on a call with reporters Wednesday. “So naturally if there was a lifting of the exemption amount, we would see potentially a good portion of those listing.”
Yun noted some retirees want to downsize, but aren’t because of the resulting capital gains tax, which is currently assessed on profits of more than $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for couples. 
Most of those hit with the tax would have to be on the higher end of the market. The median price of a home sold in June was $435,300, according to the NAR. The share of homes priced above $750,000 that sold during the month was 17%.
The tax only applies to the difference between what a homebuyer purchased the house for and what they sold it at, minus certain improvements.

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Home prices have risen dramatically since the start of the pandemic, up roughly 52% in the past five years nationally. Even with that steep rise, those on the lower end of the market would not surpass the current exemption.

The tax hits high-end homeowners and baby boomers who have owned their homes for several decades and may now be looking to downsize.
“But frankly that’s not what really is going to matter for the housing market,” Stephen Kim, a housing analyst at Evercore ISI, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime” Tuesday.
“What’s really going to matter is a return of confidence. We believe that a lot of the actions that the Trump administration has taken has created instability and uncertainty, and people who are going to make the biggest purchase of their life, they don’t like to have any kind of insecurity or uncertainty,” he said.

Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather suggested that cutting the tax could actually keep homeowners in their homes longer because some decide to sell just as they’re approaching the level of gains where the tax would hit.
“It’s not clear to me this would help the housing market. If anything, I would like to see them reduce taxes on improvements to homes, like if you’re putting in an ADU, and that’s what increases the value of your home,” Fairweather said on CNBC’s “Fast Money.” More

The Department of Health and Human Services said it will officially remove the mercury-based preservative thimerosal from all flu shots distributed in the U.S. – even though there is no evidence of harm from the ingredient. 
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. formally adopted a June recommendation from a government vaccine panel, called the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, against influenza shots containing thimerosal.
While few shots still contain thimerosal, the move eliminates a vaccine option for Americans and is a win for the anti-vaccine movement, which has long targeted the ingredient.

U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., speaks with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) ahead of a roundtable event as part of the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) agenda, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 15, 2025.
Ken Cedeno | Reuters

The Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday said it will officially remove the mercury-based preservative thimerosal from all flu shots distributed in the U.S. – even though there is no evidence of harm from the ingredient. 
While few jabs still contain thimerosal, the move eliminates a vaccine option for Americans and is a win for the anti-vaccine movement, which has long targeted the ingredient.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. formally adopted a June recommendation from a key government vaccine panel, called the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, against influenza shots containing thimerosal. Earlier that month, Kennedy gutted that panel and restacked it with new members, including some widely known anti-vaccine activists. 
The decision affects roughly 4% to 5% of the U.S. flu vaccine supply. That includes some multi-dose forms of Sanofi’s Fluzone and two shots from biotech company CSL Seqirus. The rest of the nation’s flu shots were thimerosal-free during the last season of the virus, according to CDC data.
Vaccine manufacturers have confirmed that they have the capacity to replace multi-dose vials containing mercury, HHS said. That will ensure that the flu vaccine for adults and a government program that provides shots to uninsured and underinsured children won’t be interrupted, the agency added. 
Still, health experts have said that eliminating thimerosal-containing flu shots as an option for Americans could lead to fewer people receiving jabs.
The move also reinforces longstanding, unfounded fears that the substance can lead to developmental disabilities, such as autism. Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism comes full circle with ACIP’s vote: A decade before stepping into his current role, he published a book that called for the removal of thimerosal from shots and linked it to developmental disorders.

“After more than two decades of delay, this action fulfills a long-overdue promise to protect our most vulnerable populations from unnecessary mercury exposure,” Kennedy said in a release, urging global health authorities to follow suit. 
More than 40 studies over several decades have found no link between thimerosal and developmental delays. Thimerosal has been widely used for decades as a preservative to prevent the growth of harmful bacteria in several medicines and vaccines with multiple doses.
HHS said other recommendations from the panel’s meeting in June are still under review. More

McDonald’s Snack Wraps are bringing customers back to its U.S. restaurants and fueling same-store sales growth.
A Numerator survey of more than 200 verified buyers of the McDonald’s Snack Wrap found that 90% of respondents would buy the item again in the future.
The burger chain has struggled with sluggish sales in recent months.

Wayne Kuhl, a McDonald’s chef, shows the spicy and ranch Snack Wrap after he finished wrapping at the McDonald’s Headquarters in Chicago on May 29, 2025.
Nam Y. Huh | AP

Early data suggests the return of McDonald’s Snack Wraps is winning over customers.
After a nearly decadelong hiatus, the burger chain brought back the popular menu item earlier this month. So far, it looks like a hit.

From July 10 to July 12, the first three days of the launch, McDonald’s locations saw traffic jump by double digits each day compared to the year-to-date daily average, according to Placer.ai data. Evercore ISI estimates U.S. same-store sales have climbed 7% so far in the third quarter, according to a research note from Thursday.
Some McDonald’s U.S. stores even ran out of lettuce, although the company has since resolved the temporary shortage.
“After nine years of pent up demand, fans showed up in full force to celebrate the return of the Snack Wrap. We’ve been blown away by the response, from packed restaurants with lines out the door to nonstop social buzz,” McDonald’s U.S. said in a statement to CNBC regarding the temporary lettuce shortage.
The success of the permanent menu addition is good news for McDonald’s, which has struggled with sluggish sales in recent months. In the first quarter, the company reported its largest quarterly U.S. same-store sales decline since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic shuttered its dining rooms.
McDonald’s has had some marketing wins: its $5 meal deal and a Minecraft movie tie-in. But discounts can weigh on restaurant profitability, and limited-time promotions only provide a temporary boost to traffic.

Most importantly for McDonald’s, customers seem to enjoy the Snack Wraps, suggesting that the lift to McDonald’s sales could outlast the social media buzz that fueled the initial traffic boost.
A Numerator survey of more than 200 verified buyers of the McDonald’s Snack Wrap found that 90% of respondents would buy the item again in the future.
Those early Snack Wrap buyers are loyal McDonald’s customers. Numerator found that the survey’s average respondent has visited the chain 56 times so far this year. The typical McDonald’s diner has only frequented one of its restaurants 25 times during the same period, according to Numerator.
In addition to lettuce, shredded cheese and sauce, McDonald’s revived snack wraps are made with one of the chain’s McCrispy Strips, which launched nationwide in May. The wraps, which sell for $2.99 each, come in two flavors: spicy and ranch. More than two thirds of Numerator survey respondents bought just the ranch snack wrap, 20% purchased the spicy version, and 12% went for both.
The company is expected to report its earnings for the second quarter on Aug. 6. The report will not include the effect of the snack wraps, which rolled out nationwide after the quarter ended.

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Some frustrated sellers are deciding to delist their properties and instead offer them on the rental market.
These new rentals are coming in direct competition with institutional investors in the rental space, especially in the markets where those investors are most prevalent.
The inventory of homes for sale has already been growing steadily over the past year, especially in the formerly hot pandemic migration markets like the Sun Belt.

A “For Rent, For Sale” sign is seen outside of a home in Washington, U.S., July 7, 2022. 
Sarah Silbiger | Reuters

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
It’s getting harder to sell a home, as rising supply, high mortgage rates and waning consumer confidence conspire to keep potential buyers on the sidelines. Now some frustrated sellers are deciding to de-list their properties and instead offer them on the rental market.

These new rentals are coming in direct competition with institutional investors in the rental space, especially in the markets where those investors are most prevalent.
The largest investors, those with more than 50,000 homes in their portfolios, are highly concentrated geographically. Names like Invitation Homes, American Homes 4 Rent and Progress Residential each hold over a third of their assets in just six U.S. housing markets, according to an analysis by Parcl Labs: Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Tampa, Florida, and Charlotte, North Carolina. These markets have seen inventory growth of well over 20% in the past year — much of it from former owner-occupants.
“When these home sellers cannot find buyers, they face three choices: delist and wait, cut price to find market clearing level, or convert to rental. The last option creates what Parcl Labs terms ‘accidental landlords’: Owners who enter the single-family rental market not by design, but by necessity,” wrote Jesus Leal Trujillo, principal data scientist at Parcl Labs.

Plan B

Garret Johnson bought his Dallas home two years ago, but recently got a new job in Houston. He thought selling his home last March would be easy. 
“There weren’t many buyers, just lookers, and people were biding their time waiting for better rates. [There was] a lot of economic uncertainty in those months, March and April, that we had listed the house, so I think that played a factor as well,” Johnson said.

After a few months, Johnson decided to try putting his home up for rent. It wasn’t his ideal plan, he said, but in just the first few days, he had several offers. 
The rent doesn’t fully cover his mortgage, Johnson said, but he recast his loan and put more equity in the home to lower the payments. He also changed his homeowners insurance to a landlord policy for additional savings. Johnson said he doesn’t expect to sell for several years. 

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“I’ve gotten to be creative, and hopefully the goal is, in the next few years, to start to turn a profit on the month-to-month basis of the rent versus mortgage,” he said.

Inventory rising

The inventory of homes for sale has already been growing steadily over the past year, especially in the formerly hot pandemic migration markets like the Sun Belt. Homes are sitting on the market longer as sellers, used to the heady price hikes of the last five years, are reluctant to lower their prices. As more for-sale supply enters the rental pool, that could limit landlord pricing power. 
“You’re not going to see big reductions in rent, but maybe you won’t be able to get 4% or 5% increases on your rent. Maybe it’s just 1% to 2% in some cases,” said Haendel St. Juste, a senior equity research analyst at Mizuho Securities. “But the professional big guys, INVH, AMH, have been getting 4% to 5% renewal rates and 75% retention in their portfolio. So keeping people in the homes at 4% to 5% rent is a key part of their business model.”
This is not, however, the first time this has happened. 
“We saw something like this in 2022 after mortgage rates doubled: A huge uptick in the number of people who owned one property besides their primary residence,” said Rick Sharga, CEO of CJ Patrick Co., a real estate advisory firm.

Investors selling

The largest single-family rental REITs are now selling more homes than they’re buying, according to a count by Parcl Labs. That does not, however, mean they’re exiting the market.
“They are deploying more funds into build-to-rent projects, rather than competing with smaller investors and traditional homebuyers for resale properties,” said Sharga, suggesting that doing so limits the threat from those so-called accidental landlords.  
That minimizes some of the risk, but St. Juste said the biggest landlords will have to incur some occupancy decline in order to optimize their revenue, as opposed to just slashing rents. 
“The incremental risk from this slow selling season is that there could be more supply, you know, come this fall, come next spring, that could limit some of the rental growth upside for next year,” he said. More