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    Europe prepares for a mighty trade war

    “We cannot carry on trade without war, nor war without trade,” wrote Jan Pieterszoon Coen, a brutal governor-general of the Dutch East India Company, to shareholders in 1614. Four centuries later, things sound a bit different. “Let’s make no mistake: assertiveness is a prerequisite for keeping our markets open,” says Sabine Weyand, the EU’s top trade negotiator. After decades during which America supported the global rules-based trade order and European commerce thrived, the bloc now has to learn how to do business in a fractious world. More

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    Betting markets are useful when politics is chaotic

    In the early 20th century, for brief periods, the most frenetic American trading pits were not the raucous markets in which stocks were traded, nor the venues where bonds were exchanged. The real action was in the market for betting on the next president. “Crowds formed in the financial district…and brokers would call out bid and ask odds as if trading securities,” write Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf, two economists. Markets were deep, liquid and smart: in 15 presidential elections from 1884 to 1940, the favourite won 11 times and three races were essentially tied (in odds and result). Only once did markets miss the mark. More

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    Trumponomics would not be as bad as most expect

    In markets it is known as the “Trump trade”, a bet that Donald Trump’s return to the White House would herald more inflation and higher interest rates. Many of Mr Trump’s core policies push in this direction: tariffs would add to import costs, deportations of immigrants could push up wages and deficit-financed tax cuts would juice the economy. Amid mounting inflation, the Federal Reserve would have little choice but to opt for higher rates.In the wake of Joe Biden’s calamitous debate on June 27th, a preview of the trade played out. As investors grappled with the likelihood that Mr Trump would romp to the presidency, they sold off Treasuries, which led to a brief surge in yields. The big fear is that much worse would come to pass. If Mr Trump fought the Fed on rates, he might sow doubts about the central bank’s independence, undermining confidence in America’s markets and the dollar. That is the economic nightmare scenario for a second Trump administration.But as with any nightmare, the bogeyman of Trumponomics may be more terrible than its reality. Mr Trump and his advisers have many rotten ideas. They also have some decent ones. And their ability to implement damaging policies will be constrained, with Congress, America’s institutions and markets all serving as checks. More

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    China’s robotaxi push sparks concerns about job security for drivers

    China’s yearslong effort to develop robotaxis is starting to gain traction with consumers —but it’s also rattling taxi drivers worried about losing their jobs as a result of increasing competition.
    Baidu’s robotaxi unit Apollo Go became one of the top 10 trending hashtags on social media platform Weibo on Wednesday amid reports of rapid user adoption in Wuhan city, where the company began operating fully staffless vehicles in certain districts 24/7 in March.
    China had more than 7 million registered ride-hailing drivers as of the end of May, roughly twice as many versus the 3.51 million drivers reported for July 2021, according to the Ministry of Transport.

    More than 70% of Baidu Apollo Go robotaxi rides in Wuhan were fully driverless as of April, and the company said in May it expected 100% of the rides to be completely autonomous in coming quarters.
    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    BEIJING — China’s yearslong effort to develop robotaxis is starting to gain traction with consumers — but it’s also rattling taxi drivers worried about losing their jobs as a result of increasing competition.
    Just as GM’s Cruise and Alphabet’s Waymo have rolled out driverless taxis in San Francisco and Phoenix, Arizona, local Chinese governments from Beijing to Guangzhou have allowed domestic players to operate robotaxi rides for the public.

    This week, the rising prominence of robotaxis in China began trending on social media.
    As of Thursday morning, videos about fully autonomous driving taxi experiences were the 12th most popular topic on Douyin, Bytedance’s China version of TikTok.
    Baidu’s robotaxi unit Apollo Go became one of the top 10 trending hashtags on social media platform Weibo on Wednesday following reports of rapid user adoption in Wuhan city.
    The company began operating fully driverless vehicles in certain districts of Wuhan, 24/7 in March.
    Wuhan is the largest operational region for Baidu’s Apollo Go, one of the largest robotaxi operators in China. The company has more than 500 robotaxis operating in the city and plans to increase that to 1,000 by the end of the year.

    When contacted by CNBC, Baidu had no official updates to share.
    The increased attention on robotaxis comes as major Chinese cities ramp up support, while smaller cities restricted ride-hailing apps in the last few months.

    Top social media posts on Wednesday were quick to extrapolate from Wuhan’s robotaxi tests, predicting an impending nationwide rollout and spawning hashtags like: “Are driverless ride-hailing cars stealing people’s rice bowls.” That’s according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.
    Also making the rounds on social media was an appeal in late June by a taxi company in Wuhan seeking reduced taxes and more restrictions on Apollo Go robotaxis as well as the number of ride-hailing cars.
    CNBC was unable to independently verify the document, which claimed the taxi company had to stop operating four of its 159-car fleet since April due to falling income.
    Wage growth in China overall has slowed from around 10% annual increases prior to the pandemic, to 4% in recent years, according to Goldman Sachs analysis published last month. The pace improved to 5.6% year-on-year growth in the first quarter, the report said.

    Ride-hailing drivers on the rise

    A surge of new companies and ride-hailing drivers have meanwhile prompted some local governments to restrict the industry.
    The city of Guyuan in Ningxia autonomous region announced that as of May 12, it was suspending online ride-hailing businesses.
    “Our city’s taxi market is already saturated,” the announcement said in Chinese, translated by CNBC.
    Separately, the southwestern city of Guiyang had suspended new ride-hailing licenses for half a year through June. The announcement said authorities were able to remove some non-compliant ride-hailing businesses and cars.
    China had more than 7 million registered ride-hailing drivers as of the end of May, according to the Ministry of Transport.
    That’s roughly twice as many versus the 3.51 million drivers reported for July 2021, and 570,000 more drivers than the ministry reported as of November.
    In comparison, the U.S. had nearly 400,000 taxi and ride-hailing drivers, shuttle drivers and chauffeurs in 2022, according to the latest available figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    The number of ride-hailing companies in China has also climbed, from 241 in 2021 to 351 in May this year, according to the Ministry of Transport.

    China pushes ahead with robotaxi support

    Multiple Chinese ministries in January released a plan to promote cloud-connected cars, including tests of at least 200 low-speed unmanned vehicles in each pilot region. Last week, the same authorities released a list of 20 initial pilot cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and Wuhan.
    Those cities have already allowed robotaxi operators to test cars in suburban areas.
    Beijing city in November 2021 started to allow Baidu’s Apollo Go and startup Pony.ai to collect fares from the public for rides with a safety driver inside the robotaxis.
    Last year, Beijing city let the operators remove all staff from a few of the vehicles. The city last month released draft rules that put the responsibility of a robotaxi traffic violation on the car owner and manager if there is no driver.
    The public-facing rides are currently subsidized, and the number of vehicles on the road are still far lower than those of traditional taxis.
    The Apollo Go app showed Thursday that a 45-minute robotaxi ride from Daxing airport to a southern suburb of Beijing would be fully subsidized – the entire 193.84 yuan ($26.66) cost was waived. The app also showed a 16-minute robotaxi ride within that Beijing suburb would cost 10.36 yuan, about half the 20 yuan fare listed by ride-hailing apps, which can call taxis.

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    Baidu CEO Robin Li told investors in May that more than 70% of Apollo Go robotaxi rides in April were fully driverless, with no human staff inside. He predicted that share would reach 100% in the coming quarters — and allow Apollo Go to break even in Wuhan first.
    The city is the capital of Hubei province, which proclaimed in a June 1 article its efforts to become the world’s first autonomous driving city.
    “I just got my driver’s license … and there’s already driverless cars? What was the point of me taking the test?” according to a Chinese comment on the article, translated by CNBC.
    “In the short term, there’s no way autonomous driving can replace drivers,” the Hubei government account said in its reply. More

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    Ethereum ETF countdown: Bitwise CIO sees ‘birth of a new asset class’

    Wall Street is getting ready for a new batch of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds: ethereum. 
    Spot ether ETFs could hit the market as soon as this week, pending U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approval, and Bitwise Asset Management’s Matthew Hougan plans to get in on the action.

    “What you’re seeing is this sort of the birth of a new asset class,” the firm’s chief investment officer told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on Monday.
    Hougan’s firm is applying for spot ether ETFs.
    “If you want to invest in the growth of tokenization, ethereum is like the picks and shovels play,” Hougan said. “It underpins all of it. … I think that is going to appeal to a lot of people.”
    He thinks cryptocurrency ETFs overall are a multiyear story. Hougan is referring to the first spot bitcoin ETFs that launched in January. He sees their success as a good indicator of the future.
    “It’s [bitcoin] moving into the mainstream,” he noted. “That’s going to be a multiyear story.”

    Spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted about $15 billion since their launch and currently hold two of the top ETF inflows this year, according to FactSet.
    Hougan views bitcoin’s recent success as unprecedented and sees it as a bullish indicator for spot ether ETFs. 
    “If we get five or 10 or 15 billion dollars in the first two years of these ethereum ETFs, that is a massive runaway success,” Hougan said.

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    Federal Trade Commission to sue drug middlemen over prices of medications including insulin, source says

    The Federal Trade Commission is planning to sue three large U.S. health companies over their practices as middlemen who negotiate prices for medications such as insulin, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.
    The suits are set to target the three biggest so-called pharmacy benefit managers, UnitedHealth Group’s Optum Rx, CVS Health’s Caremark and Cigna’s Express Scripts, which are all owned by or connected to health insurers.
    The agency argues their tactics contribute to inflated drug prices.

    Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan testifies during a hearing of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government, May 15, 2024.
    Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

    The Federal Trade Commission is planning to sue three large U.S. health companies over their practices as middlemen who negotiate prices for medications such as insulin, as the agency argues they inflate costs for patients, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC on Wednesday.
    The suits are expected to target the three biggest so-called pharmacy benefit managers, UnitedHealth Group’s Optum Rx, CVS Health’s Caremark and Cigna’s Express Scripts, the person said, confirming an earlier Wall Street Journal report Wednesday about the agency’s plans. All three are owned by or connected to health insurers. 

    The lawsuits will specifically focus on the business practices related to the rebates the pharmacy benefit managers, or PBMs, broker with drug manufacturers, the Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. 
    A CVS Caremark spokesperson said in a statement Wednesday that the company is “proud of the work we have done to make insulin more affordable for all Americans with diabetes, and we stand by our record of protecting American businesses, unions, and patients from rising prescription drug prices.”

    A customer visits a CVS pharmacy store in Miami, Feb. 7, 2024.
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    An Express Scripts spokesperson said the “prices of insulin and other medicines are set by their manufacturers, who have raised list prices repeatedly.” The spokesperson said Express Scripts works to “combat the pharmaceutical industry’s high prices and lower the cost of thousands of medicines for patients and their health plans, and the data shows that we succeed.”
    A spokesperson for Optum Rx did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 
    The FTC declined to comment on the reported lawsuits.

    PBMs sit at the center of the drug supply chain in the U.S. They negotiate rebates with drug manufacturers on behalf of insurers, large employers and others. They also create lists of medications — or formularies — that are covered by insurance and reimburse pharmacies for prescriptions. 
    The FTC has been investigating PBMs since 2022. The investigation into insulin prices also examines drugmakers, but it is unclear whether they will be named in the upcoming lawsuits, Politico reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Eli Lilly, French drugmaker Sanofi and Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk control roughly 90% of the U.S. insulin market.

    Pharmacist Thomas Jensen looks over a prescription drug at the Rock Canyon Pharmacy in Provo, Utah, on May 9, 2019.
    George Frey | Reuters

    The FTC on Tuesday released a scathing interim report based on the ongoing investigation into PBMs. The report accused the three largest PBMs of manipulating the drug supply chain to enrich themselves at the expensive of smaller, independent pharmacies and U.S. patients. 
    Six of the largest PBMs handled nearly 95% of the prescriptions filled in the U.S., the FTC’s report said. 
    PBMs contend that manufacturers are responsible for high drug prices, while drugmakers say rebates and fees collected by those middlemen force them to increase list prices for products.
    The Biden administration and Congress have ramped up pressure on PBMs, seeking to increase transparency into their operations as many Americans struggle to afford prescription drugs. On average, Americans pay two to three times more than patients in other developed nations for prescription drugs, according to a fact sheet from the White House.
    President Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act has capped insulin prices for Medicare beneficiaries at $35 per month. That policy currently does not extend to patients with private insurance. More

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    NASA still expects Boeing’s Starliner to return astronauts from ISS, but notes SpaceX backup option

    NASA leadership on Wednesday acknowledged potential alternatives to Boeing’s Starliner for returning a pair of astronauts from the International Space Station.
    Starliner has now been in space 36 days and counting as NASA and Boeing perform additional testing to replicate issues identified with the propulsion system, before clearing the spacecraft to return.
    A NASA official noted that an “end of July” return for Starliner is “optimistically” based on completing the testing being done in New Mexico.

    NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore (R) and Suni Williams, wearing Boeing spacesuits, depart the Neil A. Armstrong Operations and Checkout Building at Kennedy Space Center for Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida to board the Boeing CST-100 Starliner spacecraft for the Crew Flight Test launch, on June 5, 2024.
    Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo | Afp | Getty Images

    With NASA astronauts docked at the International Space Station far longer than planned, the agency’s leadership on Wednesday acknowledged potential alternatives to Boeing’s Starliner for returning the crew to Earth.
    Still, the Boeing’s spacecraft remains the primary option for returning crew, officials said.

    Officials say Starliner capsule “Calypso” may return as soon as the end of this month from its extended ISS stay, pending results of testing a faulty propulsion system. Starliner has now been in space 36 days and counting as the agency and Boeing perform additional testing in New Mexico before clearing the spacecraft to return.
    The mission is the first time Starliner is carrying people, flying NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams.
    NASA’s Commercial Crew manager Steve Stich emphasized during a press conference that the first “option today is to return Butch and Suni on Starliner,” adding, “we don’t see any reason” currently to turn to the agency’s other transportation option, which would be SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, to bring back the astronauts.

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    Stich — while acknowledging that a SpaceX capsule could be part of contingency plans in case Starliner were to return from the ISS empty — noted that NASA does not yet need to “make a decision as to whether we need to do anything different.”
    “Certainly we’ve dusted off a few of those things to look at relative to Starliner, just to be prepared in the event that we would have to use some of those kinds of things,” Stich said.

    “[But] there’s really been no discussion with sending another Dragon to rescue the Starliner crew,” Stich added later.

    SpaceX’s Dragon crew capsule “Endeavour” seen from the International Space Station on May 2, 2024.

    Boeing and NASA on July 3 began testing the spacecraft’s thruster technology back on the ground in White Sands, New Mexico, aiming to replicate an issue that caused as many as five of Calypso’s thrusters to shut down when the spacecraft was maneuvering to dock with the ISS. The ground testing is being done to “make sure that with all these pulses and all the heat we’re putting into it, that it doesn’t cause any damage to the thruster,” Stich said.
    Stich noted that an “end of July” return for Starliner is “optimistically” based on completing the testing. Boeing and NASA teams in White Sands are conducting inspections of the test thruster over this next week.
    But “so far we’ve not been able to replicate the temperatures that we saw in flight,” Boeing’s Mark Nappi, vice president of the Starliner program, said during the press conference.
    “What we’re trying to do with this testing is fill in some gaps because … what we’re trying to do is understand if the thrusters are performing [as expected], then we will be able to undock and just return. If the thrusters were somehow damaged, then what would we do differently?” Nappi said.
    “We don’t believe that we have damaged thrusters, but again, we want to fill in the blanks and run this test to assure ourselves,” Nappi added.

    Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft is pictured docked to the International Space Station orbiting above Egypt’s Mediterranean coast on June 13, 2024.

    Wilmore and Williams, speaking to press from the ISS, both expressed confidence about returning on Starliner.
    “We trust that the tests that we’re doing are the ones that we need to do to get the right answers to give us the data that we need to come back,” Wilmore said.
    Starliner was once seen as a competitor to SpaceX’s Dragon, which has made 12 crewed trips to the ISS over the past four years. However, various setbacks and delays have steadily slipped Starliner into a secondary position for NASA, with the agency planning to have SpaceX and Boeing fly astronauts on alternating flights.
    The Starliner crew flight test represents a final major step before NASA certifies Boeing to fly crew on operational, six-month missions beginning as soon as February.

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    Costco hikes membership fee for the first time since 2017

    Costco is hiking its annual membership fees in the U.S. and Canada by $5, and raising the cost of its higher-tier membership by $10.
    It is the first increase since 2017.
    Costco relies on the fees to keep prices low as it competes with rivals such as Sam’s Club and BJ’s.

    Customers exit a Costco store in Teterboro, New Jersey, on June 28, 2023.
    Kena Betancur | Corbis News | Getty Images

    You will soon have to pay more if you want to shop at Costco.
    The membership-based warehouse club said Wednesday that it will increase its membership fee by $5 in the U.S. and Canada as of Sept. 1. That is an increase to $65 from $60 for annual memberships. Its higher-tier plan, called “Executive Membership,” will increase to $130 a year from $120.

    Costco said the fee increases would affect about 52 million memberships, a little over half of which are executive memberships.
    Shares rose about 2% in extended trading Wednesday.
    It marks Costco’s first membership rate increase since June 2017. On average, the company has raised rates roughly every five and a half years, which would have put Costco on track to raise the fee in late 2022 or early 2023.
    However, Costco held off on raising fees prior to now. In interviews with CNBC, CEO Craig Jelinek previously said it was not the right time as consumers dealt with high inflation. The company’s Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti made similar comments on prior earnings calls.
    Costco relies on membership fees to drive most of its revenue and help keep merchandise prices low. Its rival, Walmart-owned Sam’s Club, hiked its own membership fee in 2022 for the first time in nine years. Yet, even after the fee bump, a Sam’s Club membership was cheaper, at $50 for club members and $110 for members of its higher-tier level, “Plus,” on an annual basis. At BJ’s Wholesale, annual membership fees are $55 and $110, for club members and its own higher tier, respectively.
    Costco said it stepped up enforcement last year to make sure shoppers were not using other members’ cards. It added an extra check for memberships in self-checkout aisles. The moves were reminiscent of Netflix, which has also cracked down on people who use its service without paying.

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