Raphael Stevens

Global insured losses for the first half of this year have reached $84 billion, according to a recent Gallagher Re report — the highest first half total since 2011.
The global reinsurance broker said 2025 is on a clear path to surpassing $100 billion in insurance losses for the full year, calling the threshold “a new market reality.”
Insurers have to deal with a variety of weather-related concerns.

A worker helps board up windows at Joey and Brenda Bermudez’s home that was damage by a recent tornado at the Elkhorn Ranch neighborhood in Elbert County on May 19, 2025.
RJ Sangosti | MediaNews Group | Denver Post | Getty Images

Global insured losses for the first half of this year have reached $84 billion, according to a recent Gallagher Re report — the highest first half total since 2011.
Violent storms in the U.S. with damaging wind, lightning and hail are driving losses for insurers of more than $30 billion, according to the report from the global reinsurance broker. These severe convective storms make up 39% of the insured losses globally in the first half of 2025.

The damage is expensive. In the U.S., 11 different storms produced insured losses of at least a billion dollars — and three of those storms cost insurers more than $2 billion.
A historic storm outbreak from March 13 to March 16 spawned at least 118 tornado touchdowns across 15 states and resulted in 43 fatalities. Claims are still being processed, but Gallagher Re said it expects insured losses to approach $7.7 billion, making it the fourth costliest single severe convective storm event in modern history.
Gallagher Re said 2025 is on a clear path to surpassing $100 billion in insurance losses for the full year, calling the threshold “a new market reality.”
Insurers have to deal with a variety of weather-related concerns. Hail is a huge problem, the report noted — more frequent storms that produce damaging hail are driving large losses for insurers.
Meanwhile, the Palisades and Eaton wildfires in Southern California in January are responsible for an estimated $40 billion in insured losses, the costliest individual wildfire events ever recorded for insurers and reinsurers.
Soaring housing costs are also fueling the the significant growth in insured losses. Higher prices associated with materials and labor mean insurers pay more to repair or replace homes, buildings and vehicles. And people continue to choose locations that are vulnerable to severe weather or fire. More

U.S. airlines have been struggling with an oversupply of flights and weaker-than-expected demand this year.
Delta Air Lines and United Airlines reported profits and said demand has stabilized, but more domestic-focused airlines are expected to struggle.
Delta and United have benefited from an emphasis on premium travel and international trip demand.

A Delta Air Lines plane takes off at Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, on Dec. 24, 2021.
Eric Lee | Bloomberg | Getty Images

For United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, there’s his airline, his carrier’s main rival, Delta Air Lines, and then everyone else.
Delta and United accounted for more than 86% of the profits posted by the seven largest airlines last year. Airline margins are notoriously thin, less than 4% last year, compared with close to 20% for big U.S. companies, according to the Airlines for America industry group. Already, the top four U.S. carriers — Delta, United, American and Southwest — accounted for about three-quarters of domestic capacity.

But beyond size, Delta and United’s networks and focus on premium travel will help them weather a challenging year better than their competitors, analysts say.
“One thing that’s becoming even more clear … is the strength of the two brand loyal airlines really winning and everyone else losing,” Kirby said on the carrier’s quarterly call on Thursday.
“It’s hard to say that he’s wrong,” said Melius Research airline analyst Conor Cunningham.
And things are looking up for the rest of the year, Delta’s and United’s CEOs have said. Kirby told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday that United’s pared-down 2025 forecast has some upside because of a pop in demand this quarter after on-again, off-again tariffs and other challenges bogged down bookings earlier this year.
An air traffic controller shortage that sparked flight cuts at United’s major hub of Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey is taking a bite out the airline’s second- and third-quarter profits.

Stock chart icon

United and Delta stock moves compared with the S&P 500.

Cheap seats

Airfare is falling this year, even in what are traditionally peak travel months, with too many coach class seats in the market. Domestic travel demand, especially from price-sensitive consumers, has been weaker than the lofty expectations airline executives had at the start of 2025.
Airfare fell 3.5% in June from a year earlier while inflation overall rose, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“The summer is generally never on sale, and the summer is heavily on sale right now,” Southwest CEO Bob Jordan told CNBC in late June.
Delta and other carriers have said they will scale back their capacity plans after the summer travel season, which wanes around mid-August, but even making money during peak periods is challenging this year.
“Simply put, a portion of the industry is drowning; incapable of producing profit, even during the summer peak,” JPMorgan Chase airline analyst Jamie Baker wrote in a note Thursday. “It strikes us as patently logical to expect these franchises to throw as much capacity at peak demand as they can muster, in hopes of potentially breaking above the waterline for just a brief gasp of air.”

It can’t be amazing forever. What goes up comes down. This is the airline industry.”

Conor Cunningham
Melius Research airline analyst

Both Delta and United have trimmed their 2025 outlooks. (Southwest, American and Alaska report quarterly results next week.) But an emphasis on international travel, as well as premium seats and loyalty programs, is boosting both carriers.
United on Wednesday reported a 7% drop in the second quarter in domestic revenue per available seat mile, a gauge of airline pricing power. The carrier also said it saw a 4.5% decline in that figure overall, though international unit revenues weren’t down as much, thanks in part to a boost from trans-Pacific flights like those to tourists’ latest obsession: Japan.
Delta’s domestic revenue was down 5%, and down 3% overall.
Even some trans-Atlantic trips showed signs of oversupply in the market as feverous demand for European trips post-pandemic settles down and inbound tourism to the U.S. drops.
“It can’t be amazing forever. What goes up comes down,” said Melius’ Cunningham. “This is the airline industry.”
But both United and Delta pointed to strength in their premium cabins, where seats are several times more expensive than a coach fare, as well as in their loyalty programs. Delta said its revenue from its lucrative American Express partnership rose 10% from last year in the second quarter to $2 billion, and premium-class revenue was up 5%.

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New streams

All airlines are thinking of new ways to generate revenue, not just remove costs from the system through culling unprofitable flights and other drains.
Southwest, for example, in May introduced checked bag fees for many customers, a once unthinkable add-on for a carrier that helped democratize air travel. It plans to start selling assigned seats, get rid of its longtime open seating plan and offer extra-legroom options that command a premium. The carrier is the only major U.S. airline whose stock is up this year.
At the higher end, Delta said it’s testing segmentation that it’s mastered in the back of the plane up in the front of the cabin.
“Premium has certainly been where our margins have continued to expand, and so we’re highly focused on continuing to provide improved service to those customers and more segmentation,” Delta’s president, Glen Hauenstein, said on a July 10 earnings call. “The segmentation that we’ve done in main cabin is kind of the template that we’re going to bring to all of our premium cabins over time because different people have different needs.”

United recently unveiled a revamped Polaris class, its top-tier cabin for longer-haul flights, as well as new dedicated lounges. United’s chief commercial officer, Andrew Nocella, said the company has room to expand premium economy, the cabin that sits between business class and coach.
“That’s the cabin … that’s generating very good returns and the one that we’ll probably lean more into going forward,” he said.
Nocella hinted at segmentation at the front of the plane, but stopped short of sharing details.
“Not everybody wants the full experience. Some people want other experiences,” he said. “We look forward to continuing to diversify our revenue base and segment it in the appropriate way, and I’ll leave it at that.”
While Kirby puts his airline and Delta in a similar bucket, rivalry between them is strong. When asked about Delta launching routes from Los Angeles and United’s home hub at Chicago O’Hare International Airport to Hong Kong, an existing United route, Kirby brushed it off.
“We fly 6,000 flights a day so a couple of new routes aren’t that big of an issue for us,” he said. “But I guess I feel complimented when other airlines feel like they’re worried about us getting ahead and have to fly routes that are going to lose money for them.”

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Kids’ programming like “CoComelon” and “Bluey” is becoming an important tool in retaining streaming customers as the services chase profitability.
Kids tend to repeat watching shows and movies, and it shows in the data, said Brian Fuhrer, senior vice president of product strategy and thought leadership at Nielsen.
Media companies are faced with the competition of YouTube, which Nielsen reports grabs a bigger share of streaming TV viewership, particularly among younger generations.

Cartoon characters from the children’s show “Bluey” are displayed during the Brand Licensing Europe event at ExCel, in London, Oct. 4, 2023.
John Keeble | Getty Images News | Getty Images

In the battle among streaming services to capture and keep subscribers, kids’ shows like “CoComelon” and “Bluey” are becoming powerful tools to help win the war.
Retaining customers has proven to be one of the biggest hurdles in the build-out of streaming. When Netflix reported subscriber losses in 2022, it sent a ripple effect through the industry and media companies began leaning into advertising and other business models to focus on profitability.

Meanwhile, companies like Warner Bros. Discovery and Disney have been vocal about the need for quality content to drive subscriber growth. Children’s programming offers a unique value proposition for the streaming equation: it’s less expensive and has more longevity than other forms of content.
“Kids’ content drives a huge amount of engagement because kids watch it over and over and over and over. They never tire of it,” said Kevin Mayer, co-CEO of Candle Media, which owns Moonbug, the distributor of hit kids’ shows such as “CoComelon” and “Blippi.”
Mayer said reducing churn — industry jargon for customer losses — is the most substantial factor in improving streaming services’ economics, even more so than gaining new subscribers or generating revenue from those customers.
“If you churn, you lose subscribers, your top line diminishes. You have to spend marketing dollars to replenish, either to re-market to lost subscribers or to find new ones,” said Mayer.
Kids tend to repeat watching shows and movies, and it shows in the data. When there was initially only one season of “CoComelon” on Netflix, kids watched the same episodes multiple times, said Brian Fuhrer, senior vice president of product strategy and thought leadership at Nielsen.

The 154 episodes of animated Australian hit series “Bluey,” which streams on Disney+, had more than 25 billion minutes viewed in the first half of 2025, according to a Nielsen report released in July.
Kids’ films in general have been driving both the box office and have been many of the top streamed titles this year, according to Nielsen. Disney’s “Moana” is the most streamed movie in history and the sequel, “Moana 2,” had 7.2 billion viewing minutes since it was released on Disney+ in March, per Nielsen.
Live sports and hit TV series are often credited with drawing the biggest audiences and driving short-term subscriber additions for streamers, but services that feature strong portfolios of children’s content offer parents a reason to stick with subscriptions longer term, industry analysts and experts told CNBC.
A fourth-quarter video trends report from TiVo found that of nearly 4,500 survey respondents in the U.S. and Canada, those with children use 13.6 services compared with 8.2 for those without. Overall, the report from the fourth quarter of 2024 found that respondents had on average 9.9 services, down from 11.1 in the prior year. TiVo’s report found that people were dropping streaming apps due to lack of usage rather than higher pricing.
Meanwhile, kids being home from school during the summer has helped to spike both streaming and TV usage in June, according to a recent Nielsen report. Total TV usage among 6- to 17-year-olds was up 27% compared with the prior month, and streaming accounted for 66% of their total time spent with TV in June.
The strategy for media companies varies when it comes to using children’s content as a retention tool. Disney, Paramount Global and Netflix are among the streaming services with deep libraries of kids content. WBD, however, has stepped back from the genre, most notably with its decision to relinquish the streaming rights to “Sesame Street.”
The new season of the iconic children’s show will be released on Netflix later this year, with two more seasons to follow. Meanwhile, new “Sesame Street” episodes will also be available on PBS KIDS and its YouTube channel.
Netflix has reported kids’ and family content represents 15% of the company’s total viewing.
Part of the broader media strategy has also come to mean joining forces with the traditional media industry’s biggest competitor — Alphabet’s YouTube.

YouTube rising

Kid Cowboy episodic still.
Courtesy: Nickelodeon

Even Netflix, the streaming juggernaut that upended the media industry, is faced with the reality that social media platform YouTube is dominating streaming on the TV screen.
YouTube consistently pulls the highest TV viewership among all streaming platforms, according to Nielsen. As of June, YouTube accounted for 12.8% of overall streaming on the TV, surpassing Netflix and Disney+, Nielsen reported. In total, streaming viewership surpassed broadcast and cable TV.
“I would say YouTube is part of everybody’s media strategy,” said Andy Heyward, a longtime media executive in the kids’ television industry and CEO of Kartoon Studios. “More kids are consuming YouTube than anything else. But there’s so much stuff on there that you have be very, very unique to rise above.” 
YouTube strategy used to be an afterthought for many media companies, but that’s since changed, according to Alexia Raven, who spearheaded generational research as a former executive at Warner Bros. Discovery and has since co-founded the research and strategy firm Maverix Insights.
“If you’re not on YouTube, it’s like you don’t exist for kids,” Raven said. “That’s where the eyeballs are.”
In response, traditional media companies are increasingly working “as close partners” with YouTube — creating and curating YouTube channels with clips from specific content and TV networks, and even creating shows just for the platform, said Katie Kurtz, the global head of youth and learning at YouTube.
“I think we certainly know that some partners think of YouTube as the engine of discoverability. They want to make sure they’re meeting users where they are, and so they are on YouTube as a way of connecting with audiences,” said Kurtz.
The content Disney produces for YouTube serves to complement its long-form series on Disney+ and fuel deeper engagement with its characters and stories, a Disney spokesperson told CNBC.
Paramount credits its library of kids programming as helping to establish Paramount+ as one of the fastest-growing streaming services, according to a spokesperson — much of which comes from cable TV network Nickelodeon. Franchises like “Paw Patrol,” “SpongeBob SquarePants” and “Dora the Explorer” have been particularly successful.
Still even with that depth in kids’ programming, Paramount earlier this year released the original animated series, “Kid Cowboy,” exclusively on YouTube.
“We also know that a lot of our partners are not really just building large YouTube channels. They are also thinking about building a really great next generation of characters, and some of that involves being YouTube first,” said Kurtz, calling out “Kid Cowboy” as an example.

CoComelon crossover

CoComelon.
Courtesy: Netflix

Meanwhile, traditional media companies are also looking to YouTube for new forms of content to add to their platform. In recent years, content makers who started out on YouTube have signed licensing deals with top streaming services.
“We want to be in business with the best creatives on the planet, regardless where they come from,” said Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos during Thursday’s earnings call with investors.
“CoComelon” in particular stands out.
The animated series originated on YouTube and still reaches much of its viewers there, but when Netflix acquired a subset of its content in 2020, it was a boost for Netflix’s viewership.
It has appeared in Nielsen’s top 10 list of acquired titles a total of 179 times, with 155 consecutive appearances on the rankings. However, it was last featured on the list in September 2024.
Despite its slowdown in viewership, “CoComelon” managed to nab a new subscription streaming home with Disney+ this year, according to people familiar with the matter who declined to speak publicly on the private negotiations. Disney outbid Netflix for the rights to the program beginning in 2027 and Netflix refrained from submitting a higher bid, the people said. Netflix declined to renew its “CoComelon” license due to a decline in viewership, one of the people said.
Netflix saw the hours spent viewing “CoComelon” decline nearly 60% from early 2023 — when it started releasing engagement data — to late 2024.
A Disney spokesperson said that “CoComelon” continues to be a top destination for preschool-aged children, adding the show fits seamlessly into its preschool ecosystem and supports engagement and retention with its young audiences, which is a key driver of platform health.
Despite letting go of “CoComelon,” Netflix is still investing in kids content. Earlier this year, Netflix added “Ms. Rachel” content, which is programming from a YouTube creator of toddler and preschooler content of the same name whose channel has nearly 16 million subscribers.
The series has been in Netflix’s top 10 most watched “shows” globally for 17 weeks, according to the company.
“There are some creators on YouTube like Ms. Rachel that are a great fit,” Sarandos said on Thursday’s call. “If you just saw on the engagement report, she’s had 53 million views in the first half of 2025 on Netflix. So she clearly works on Netflix.” More

Keeping it in the family can hurt the bottom line when it comes to family businesses and their private investment firms, according to consultant Joshua Gentine.
When a family member isn’t pulling their weight, their managers are put in the awkward spot of managing their own client.
Gentine, a third-generation heir to Sargento Foods, told CNBC how wealthy families can set up the next generation for success — and prepare for the worst.

Fluxfactory | E+ | Getty Images

A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
Joshua Gentine grew up playing hide-and-seek in his family’s cheese factory in Wisconsin. His late grandfather Leonard in 1953 founded Sargento Foods, the family-owned cheese powerhouse that reported $1.7 billion in net sales last year.

To serve on Sargento’s board, Gentine had to jump through several hoops, including earning an MBA and working at an outside business for at least three years. He was surprised to learn that most groups didn’t have similar rules when he started advising other entrepreneurial families eight years ago.
“My grandfather and my dad and his brothers wanted to make sure that there was clarity around expectations if we were to come back to the business, both for the family’s sake as well as for all of our employees who rely on us to make good decisions,” Gentine told CNBC. “I came to realize that most families haven’t had these conversations.”
As the founder of Bench Consulting, he helps family offices — investment firms of the ultra-wealthy — and businesses plan ahead for hiring and managing family members, such as by setting clear job expectations and transparent salary policies.
Leaving these issues unaddressed can lead to problems such as retention issues, according to Gentine.
“It’s one of the reasons why family offices have a really high turnover rate,” he said. “You go in, you recruit these amazing executives to help you run your family office. But if they’re not empowered to make decisions, and there isn’t a culture of equality — in terms of family versus non-family — I wouldn’t want to be a part of that, and neither would they.”

When family members underperform, it puts managers in a difficult position, as their employee is also their client, Gentine said. Preparing for the worst-case scenario makes it easier, he said: setting up a development plan that includes objective performance goals, resources in case an employee fails to meet them, and outside experts to advise on difficult decisions. Sargento has a subcommittee of independent directors who recommend whether family members should be promoted or terminated, according to Gentine.
While the topic is uncomfortable, he said, clients are “incredibly receptive” to setting expectations and contingency plans, as it makes these situations less personal.
“It’s not mom or dad saying, ‘Hey, listen, it’s not working. I’m terminating you,'” he said. Instead, clients can say, according to Gentine, “‘I’m going to take the board’s recommendation and we’re going to have to move on.'”

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Setting those standards also helps with being able to take on competition, he said.
“You can’t go into any respectable investment firm and not see clear expectations, [key performance indicators], performance improvement plans and all of these structures,” he said.
Ideally, these requirements help family members feel more secure in their roles. Gentine said he has worked with many heirs who have a chip on their shoulder, as their first job out of college was at the family office or company.
“The family member will always feel, whether they admit it or not, that they’ve been given a job, not earned a job,” he said. “You can tell that they are uncomfortable in their decision-making, or they’re very, very confident in their decisions as they are trying to prove that they do have the skills to make those decisions. Either way, it starts to manifest itself in the culture of the family enterprise.” More

Netflix posted second-quarter revenue growth of 16% on Thursday after the closing bell.
The streamer raised its full-year revenue guidance, citing “healthy” member growth and ad sales.
Netflix reported revenue of $11.08 billion for the second quarter, higher than Wall Street’s estimates of $11.07 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images

Netflix posted an earnings beat Thursday, as revenue grew 16% during the second quarter of 2025.
The company updated its full-year revenue forecast, noting that it expects revenue to be between $44.8 billion and $45.2 billion, up from a range of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion. Netflix’s higher forecast reflects the weakening of the U.S. dollar compared with other currencies as well as “healthy” member growth and ad sales, the company said in a statement.

Notably, this is the second quarter that Netflix is not releasing quarterly updates on subscription data.
“Year-over-year revenue growth was primarily a function of more members, higher subscription pricing and increased ad revenue,” the company said in a statement.
Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

Earnings per share: $7.19 vs. $7.08, according to LSEG
Revenue: $11.08 billion vs. $11.07 billion, according to LSEG

Net income for the period was $3.1 billion, or $7.19 per share, up from $2.1 billion, or $4.88 per share, during the same quarter a year earlier.
Revenue in the second quarter jumped nearly 16% year over year, reaching $11.08 billion.

The company reported net cash generated from operating activities during the quarter was $2.4 billion, up more than 84% from the prior-year period. Free cash flow also grew, reaching $2.3 billion, a 91% increase. Netflix increased its full-year free cash-flow guidance to between $8 billion and $8.5 billion, up from around $8 billion.
Netflix emphasized its second-quarter operating margin of 34.1%, an improvement of nearly 3 percentage points from the prior quarter and of nearly 7 percentage points from the year-earlier period.
However, it warned that “operating margin in the second half of 2025 will be lower than the first half due to higher content amortization and sales and marketing costs associated with our larger second half slate.”
This is likely why shares dipped around 1% in after-hours trading. The next two quarters feature a robust calendar of events, shows and films, such as the second season of “Wednesday,” the finale of “Stranger Things,” “Happy Gilmore 2” and Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein.” More

Builder confidence has been in negative territory now for 15 straight months.
Confidence rose slightly in July due to the recently passed budget bill.
Buyer traffic saw a 1 point drop to 20, which is the lowest reading since the end of 2022.

A construction worker carries a sheet of OSB sheathing as he builds a roof on a residential homes in Irvine, California, U.S., March 28, 2025. 
Mike Blake | Reuters

The nation’s homebuilders continue to see weakening demand from potential buyers concerned about the broader economy. As a result, they are cutting prices at the highest rate in three years, according to the monthly builder confidence survey from the National Association of Home Builders.
Builder confidence in July rose 1 point to 33 on the NAHB index, a slight improvement. Still, anything below 50 is considered negative sentiment. The index stood at 41 last July, and it has been in negative territory now for 15 straight months.

The slight boost this month came from the recently passed budget act, which provided some tax relief for households, home builders and small businesses. Mortgage rates, however, have been hovering in the same narrow, elevated level for several months.
“While this new law should provide economic momentum after a disappointing spring, the housing sector has weakened in 2025 due to poor affordability conditions, particularly from elevated interest rates,” said Buddy Hughes, NAHB chairman and a builder from Lexington, North Carolina.
That’s why 38% of builders said they cut prices in July, the highest share since the NAHB began tracking the metric in 2022. Just 29% were cutting back in April. The average price reduction was 5% in July, where it has been every month since November.

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Builders have been buying down mortgage rates to help get buyers in the door, which has cut into their margins some, but not as much as price cuts.
“Should the public builders supplement mortgage rate buydowns with more outright price reductions they would likely experience a larger negative gross margin and EPS drag as they would be unlikely able to offset the margin drag with increased volumes and SG&A leverage,” said Jonathan Woloshin, real estate and lodging analyst with UBS.

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions rose 1 point to 36 and sales expectations in the next six months increased 3 points to 43. Buyer traffic saw a 1 point drop to 20, which is the lowest reading since the end of 2022.
“Single-family housing starts will post a decline in 2025 due to ongoing housing affordability challenges,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB. “Single-family permits are down 6% on a year-to-date basis and builder traffic in the HMI is at a more than two-year low.”
Regionally, builder sentiment was strongest in the Northeast where it rose 2 points, flat in the Midwest and dropped further in the South and West, where it was weakest.
Correction: Builder sentiment in the Northeast rose 2 points. An earlier version misstated the move.

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Prices on items like baby gear and home goods climbed at Walmart in recent weeks, while the cost of dozens of other products CNBC tracked remained the same.
The trends are an indicator of where prices are changing, and aren’t, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs take hold.
Nationwide inflation data has started to show tariffs hitting in some areas after months of mostly muted affects.
Walmart, the largest U.S. retailer, said in May that tariffs would force it to raise prices on some items.

A family shops in a Walmart Supercenter on May 15, 2025 in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images

SECAUCUS, N.J. — As customers walk the aisles of Walmart stores, there are some early signs that higher tariffs are changing pricing.
The nation’s largest retailer warned in May that it would have to raise prices for its shoppers as President Donald Trump’s new duties drive up the cost of many imported goods. About two months later, some household items on Walmart’s shelves have higher prices, according to a CNBC analysis.

CNBC tracked prices of about 50 products across merchandise categories including apparel, electronics, toys and groceries over seven weeks at Walmart’s Secaucus, New Jersey, location. About a dozen of the items CNBC followed increased in price during that time, including a frying pan, a pair of jeans and a car seat, according to the analysis. Many of those items are manufactured in countries that face significant tariff rates. Even in cases where prices on imported items increased, it’s unclear if the moves were all or partly due to cost increases from tariffs.

The price analysis offers a snapshot into what Trump’s duties mean for consumers’ wallets, a key concern since he started rolling out tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners earlier this year. While nationwide inflation data had seen a muted effect from tariffs in recent months, that showed some signs of changing in June. Though the consumer price index increased by 0.3% for the month and 2.7% year over year, the prices of tariff-sensitive segments like apparel and household furnishings rose at higher rates of 0.4% and 1%, respectively, from May.
Walmart is a critical indicator of pricing trends for multiple reasons. It’s the largest retailer in the U.S., a place where millions of Americans buy not only their regular groceries but also purchase furniture, shoes and other general items. It also explicitly warned that the tariffs were so high, it would be forced to raise prices.
“We’re wired for everyday low prices, but the magnitude of these increases is more than any retailer can absorb,” Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said in an interview with CNBC. The discounter’s comment sparked criticism from the White House, with Trump telling the company in a social media post to “EAT THE TARIFFS.”
Walmart is a single company. The store where CNBC tracked prices is one among more than 4,500 locations across the U.S., and its suppliers play a role in whether prices rise. Even so, the areas where CNBC saw price hikes at Walmart in many cases reflected trends in national data tracked by the government and research firms.

It isn’t just Walmart. Other retailers said this spring that they have raised or expect to hike prices, including Best Buy, Costco, Nike and E.l.f. Beauty.
In a statement, Walmart said “pricing fluctuations are a normal course of business and are influenced by a variety of factors.”
“We’re committed to keeping prices as low as possible for as long as possible, including the over 6,500 rollbacks we’re currently offering, in addition to managing inventory and reducing cost,” its statement said.

Where prices are changing — and staying the same

Beautiful frying pan on display at Walmart.
Melissa Repko | CNBC

Most of the items that CNBC tracked at Walmart stayed the same price. However, some products saw a noticeable increase.
The price of a 12-piece set of pots and pans from Beautiful, a private-label kitchenware brand that’s exclusive to Walmart and co-founded by Drew Barrymore, rose from $99 to $149. A 12-inch frying pan from Beautiful climbed from $24.97 to $31.97.
In addition, the price of a Graco convertible stroller and car seat increased in price from $199.99 (then noted as a Walmart rollback, or limited-time discount from the $249 original price) to $299.
Some items’ packaging offered clues that tariffs could play a role in the hikes. The Beautiful pots and pans and Graco car seat are all made in China, according to labels on their packaging. Trump has put new 30% tariffs on goods imported from the country this year.
Graco’s parent company, Newell Brands, declined to comment on the price increase at Walmart. In its earnings call in late April, the company, which also owns Yankee Candle, Rubbermaid and other brands, said it has raised prices on its baby gear by about 20%. Most baby gear sold in the U.S. is made in China.
The price of Levi Strauss Signature Jeans for Men increased by a dollar from $23.98 to $24.98 at the Secaucus Walmart, bringing it in line with the cost of similar women’s jeans.
On an earnings call in July, the company said it is absorbing some of the tariff costs and anticipates new duties will impact the business by $25 million to $30 million for the rest of the year, or 2 to 3 cents on earnings per share. 
Levi’s CFO, Harmit Singh, told CNBC in an interview that most of Levi’s goods come from countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Goods from all of those countries currently face 10% tariffs, and Trump has proposed higher rates for some of those nations as of Aug. 1.
Tags of the signature jeans sold by Walmart, which came in multiple styles and washes, said they were made in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Tanzania and Lesotho.

Across retailers, prices have increased in some key categories, but their impact hasn’t been as dramatic as some feared when Trump implemented new tariffs, said Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor for Circana, a market research company that tracks consumer spending patterns across merchandise categories. Those items with elevated prices include coats and jackets, casual shorts, golf shirts, plush toys, and small household appliances, he said.
Here’s how much prices rose in some categories as of the week ended May 31, relative to the week ended March 8, according to Circana data:

Juvenile products, cribs and furniture: +23 to 27%
Polo or golf shirts: +21%
Plush toys: +19%
Casual dinnerware: +23%
Electric toothbrushes: +12%
Televisions: +12%

Despite some price pressures, consumer spending has held up, Cohen said. Unit sales of food and beverage at retailers are roughly flat in terms of units so far this year, according to Circana’s data that runs through July 5 and compares with the year-ago period. Sales of discretionary general merchandise or nonfood items are down by about 1% in units compared with the year-ago period, the firm found.
Early imports and supply chain strategies have helped retailers and brands tamp down on the number and magnitude of tariff-related price increases, said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, a major industry trade group. He said many retailers imported goods early after hearing Trump’s plans for tariffs on the campaign trail. And he said companies have used U.S. Customs-sanctioned foreign trade zones and so-called bonded warehouses to store goods duty-free until they head to shelves, in the hopes that the tariff rate may fall.
Gold added companies are trying to predict if tariffs may go up or down, which will factor into their costs and their pricing decisions. Tariff levels have remained in flux as Trump delays some duties and announces others.
“Companies are just kind of scratching their heads trying to figure it out,” Gold said.
However, there were price decreases at Walmart, too: Mattel-owned Barbie Swim dolls dropped in price from $7.97 to to $5.97. The Barbies are made in Indonesia, according to their packaging. Mattel did not respond to a request about the reasons behind the price drop.
Dolls, including Barbies, are one of the items that have come up in tariff policy debates after Mattel said it may have to raise prices. Trump said that American children “could be very happy” with fewer dolls under his trade proposals.

Factors outside of tariffs

Tariffs aren’t the only dynamic driving prices, however. Some items that are not imported increased or decreased in price, too.

Whole milk is on display at Walmart.
Melissa Repko | CNBC

Eggs prices dropped at Walmart. A dozen large eggs from Walmart’s Great Value brand dropped in price from $3.47 to $2.72. They show how factors outside of tariffs are affecting consumers’ wallets, since egg prices have risen and more recently fallen after an avian flu outbreak spread and then eased.
The price of gallons of Walmart’s Great Value milk also rose. And several brands in Walmart’s coffee aisle, including its Great Value Donut Shop brand, increased in price.
Coffee has been vulnerable to price rises because of droughts and frost hitting the global coffee supply. On top of that, some of the top suppliers of coffee could face steep tariffs. Trump recently proposed a 50% duty on Brazil, the largest U.S. supplier of green coffee beans and the source for about a third of the country’s total supply, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Folgers coffee on display at Walmart.
Melissa Repko | CNBC

The cost of a 40.3-ounce container of Folgers coffee climbed from $16.43 to $19.24 at the Secaucus Walmart during the time CNBC tracked prices.
J.M. Smucker, which owns coffee brands including Dunkin Donuts and Folgers, did not respond to a request for comment. On an earnings call in June, however, the company told investors that tariffs on coffee were weighing on its profits. Coffee accounts for roughly a third of J.M. Smucker’s revenue.
Circana’s Cohen said some brands have phased in price increases, hiking them by a more tolerable level of no more than 10% to 12% or focusing on infrequent purchases.
While tariff-related price jumps haven’t been as noticeable yet, Cohen said he expects more meaningful increases to come in the upcoming months. He said consumers may feel more of the pinch during the holiday season, since many Christmas decorations and toys are made in China or other parts of Asia.
— CNBC’s Amelia Lucas contributed to this report.

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