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    War, geopolitics, energy crisis: how the economy evades every disaster

    After Adolf Hitler’s troops rolled into France in 1940, many feared the imminent destruction of Europe and its economy. British investors did not. In the year following the invasion, London’s stockmarket rose; indeed, by the end of hostilities, British companies had delivered real returns to shareholders of 100%. The plucky investors must have seemed mad at the time, but they were proved right and made handsome profits. More

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    How Trump’s tariffs are hurting the office recovery

    In April, 17 of the 19 major office markets tracked by VTS, a real estate software, analytics and advisory firm, saw decreases in demand compared with March.
    The flow of new tenants into the office market dropped by 23% from March, and the total square footage being sought fell 26%.
    “To the extent that tariffs impact the capital markets, there is an immediate pullback reaction,” said Max Saia, vice president of investor research at VTS.

    Construction renovation of new office in business building window at night
    Fangxianuo | E+ | Getty Images

    A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
    After a slow improvement in demand for office space in the first part of this year, April brought a significant contraction. Tariffs may be behind it.

    In April, 17 of the 19 major office markets tracked by VTS, a real estate software, analytics and advisory firm, saw decreases in demand compared with March. VTS measures office demand by counting anyone who starts an office tour or searches for office space. The flow of new tenants into the office market dropped by 23% from March, and the total square footage being sought fell 26%.

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    It bore a striking similarity to the contraction from March to April of 2023, which coincided with the banking crisis tied to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and later First Republic Bank, according to the VTS report. From March to April 2023, demand declined 25% and square footage sought decreased 38%.
    The office market bounced back later in 2023, with initial strong demand, but then followed in fits and starts. That hasn’t been the case this time around.
    “To the extent that tariffs impact the capital markets, there is an immediate pullback reaction,” said Max Saia, vice president of investor research at VTS. “We definitely saw a rebound in some markets, but it was not as immediate as what we saw post banking crisis.”
    A separate report from JLL looking at the full second quarter of this year showed office leasing demand down 2% after six straight quarters of year-over-year growth. And the Trump administration is now increasing some tariffs again and warning of more to come.

    For the first time since 2018, and likely the first time in decades, more square footage will be removed from the U.S. office market this year than is added to it through new construction, according to a recent report from CBRE.
    Equity markets have rebounded strongly since the initial shock of President Donald Trump’s so-called liberation day tariffs, but would-be office tenants are still hesitant. Beyond the tariffs, there are geopolitical stresses, including the conflict between Iran and Israel. At home there is concern over the economic impact of the budget bill that passed through Congress earlier this month — and a still unclear future for tariffs.
    “There is that element of no one knows exactly what the future holds and what’s going to happen,” said Saia. More

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    The next frontier in real estate: Data centers on the moon and space-support infrastructure

    Investors are looking to capitalize on the boom in the space exploration sector’s real estate needs.
    Putting data centers in space offers a fully decarbonized energy solution. 
    Industrial warehouses here on Earth will still serve the space economy, providing capacity for all the things that will be transported into space as well as areas for space-driven manufacturing. 

    A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
    As private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin develop reusable rockets and push aspirations for lunar and Martian colonization, real estate investors are dialing in. Some liken it to the early days of the railroads, when entire towns grew up around new lines. One of the biggest plays is lunar and deep space data centers.

    Hines, a global real estate investment, development and management firm, recently announced the acquisition of the Titusville Logistics Center, a nearly 250,000-square-foot, Class A industrial property located in Florida’s Space Coast submarket. The property is fully leased to aerospace tenants. This is just one example of investors looking to capitalize on the boom in the space exploration sector’s real estate needs.

    Real estate companies like Hines and Ethos are already building out space-support infrastructure in the outer space real estate race.
    Courtesy of Ethos

    “A real revolution has happened in the industry, and as things start to get unlocked, companies are looking for how they can monetize space more broadly, and there’s a lot of pieces to that,” said David Steinbach, global chief investment officer at Hines. 
    Steinbach points to both infrastructure support here on Earth, as well as real estate development for manufacturing on the moon. It may sound futuristic, but it’s already underway. 

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    “We are in the early days of something that will be some major investments, and we’re creating these new rails of the future. In this case, it’s more into orbit instead of on the ground, but when you think about it that way, think about all the nodes that are going to get developed and created. It’s exciting, and I think investors need to be thinking that way,” he said.

    Data centers in space 

    One of those rails is data centers. They are going up at a quick pace all over the world, and at the same time sucking up more energy than most local grids can handle. Putting them in space offers a fully decarbonized energy solution. 

    “There is unlimited power in space because of the sun, there is unlimited cooling with the vacuum of space, and there’s unlimited real estate in terms of where you can put these things,” said Steinbach.

    Jason Marz | Moment | Getty Images

    The data centers could be built on the moon and either kept there or launched into space. The data would simply be beamed back to Earth.
    Several companies are already working on construction methods for the moon, including 3D printing. ICON, a Texas-based construction technology company, is collaborating with NASA on developing 3D printing technology for construction on the moon and Mars. NASA is providing support through its Small Business Innovation Research program. 
    And a California startup called Ethos says it has the technology for a moon-based cement ready to go, making it out of the moon’s primary material, anorthosite.
    “Ethos takes the geological resources on the moon, and it turns them into buildable props,” said Ross Centers, the company’s CEO. “It’s a whole new world waiting to be developed, and we develop it. We turn it into landing pads, roads, foundations for data centers and other great things.”
    Centers said Ethos can also use anorthosite to make raw materials for solar panels, conductors and other materials needed to build data centers and other industrial facilities. And he pointed to the massive proliferation of rocket launches that will only multiply. He calls that his ride.
    “People are really excited about this vision. This is something that people have been looking for. It’s not every generation that you get a whole new continent to unlock,” said Centers. 

    Warehouse supply rising

    Industrial warehouses here on Earth will still serve the space economy, Centers said, providing capacity for all the things that will be transported into space as well as areas for space-driven manufacturing. 
    But the warehouse sector overall is getting softer now, with vacancy rates at 8.5% in May nationally due to tariff uncertainty, according to Yardi Research. That’s up 290 points in the prior 12 months. Just 86.9 million square feet of new warehouse space was started as of May, on pace for the lowest annual total since 2018.
    Steinbach admits that industrial broadly is seeing some headwinds in the U.S., and some submarkets – particularly the distribution centers for big box stores – are feeling that more than others. But he also said there are certain markets that are very undersupplied, and the space-support sector is one of them. That’s in both Florida and Texas.
    Steinbach argued there needs to be more development, more capital going toward construction of the infrastructure necessary to support this space real estate race. But, as with everything else, higher interest rates are holding it back. If rates come down, he said, the capital will come. 
    “I think the capital is looking for great opportunities. They’re looking for great returns, and this is one of them,” Steinbach said.  More

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    Sirius, long commercial-free in cars, is betting on advertising to capture new listeners

    SiriusXM is launching its first cheaper, ad-supported plan called SiriusXM Play, which will be available on a limited basis to start.
    The audio company, which has long been known as a commercial-free satellite provider of music, talk shows and sports, is leaning into advertising as its business has been faced with challenges similar to other media counterparts.
    SiriusXM Play will be available for less than $7 per month, with further package pricing and other details to be announced later this year.

    Thomas Fuller | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    SiriusXM, the audio entertainment company that’s long been known as a commercial-free option for in-car radios, is betting on advertising to propel its business.
    On Tuesday the company launched its first ad-supported subscription plan for car listening called SiriusXM Play. It’s a cheaper option than its long-standing offering and will cost less than $7 each month for in-car and streaming. It features a limited set of commercials on a subset of its music, sports, news and talk show offerings, the company said.

    SiriusXM is looking to advertising in a similar way as its media counterparts in the traditional TV and streaming space in order to drive revenue and profit, and retain customers. As competition heats up, particularly with other audio options, SiriusXM is betting that a cheaper, ad-supported option will help convert more in-car free trial consumers to long-term customers.
    The option will currently be available on a limited basis, but SiriusXM expects to make the package available to nearly 100 million vehicles by the end of 2025. Further details on plans and package pricing will be available later this year.
    While subscribers to SiriusXM Play will initially have access to more than 130 music and talk channels, additional channels will be added over time, the company said.
    The popular talk radio host Howard Stern, as well as live sports play-by-play and certain artist-led music channels will remain exclusive to ad-free customers in the car. SiriusXM offers a variety of commercial-free packages that range between $9.99 and $24.98 per month.
    While SiriusXM is known for its in-car service, it also offers a streaming app and owns Pandora, another music streaming service, which has its own ad-supported plans.

    Bringing in ads

    Jennifer Witz, SiriusXM Chief Executive Officer speaks onstage during the SiriusXM Next Generation: Industry & Press Preview at The Tisch Skylights at The Shed on November 8, 2023 in New York City.
    Bryan Bedder | Getty Images

    SiriusXM has identified one key target audience already for its ad-supported tier: drivers who’ve recently purchased a car and don’t renew SiriusXM service after their free trial expires, executives told CNBC.
    The consideration of advertising for SiriusXM’s in-car business “has been out there for quite some time,” said Chief Operating Officer Wayne Thorsen in an interview.
    The company has been experimenting with advertising for SiriusXM and in 2024 began offering a free, ad-supported version with limited content to select vehicles. Thorsen said this is akin to Spotify’s free tier and is used as a way to win back customers who drop off free trials and push them toward upgraded, paid plans.
    The new ad-supported plan launched on Tuesday is a different experience from both this and the main ad-free SiriusXM experience, and the company doesn’t expect a majority of its users will switch over.
    “There’s a lot of people who don’t convert when they’re in our trial funnels. They like the service, and then the price comes in,” he said.
    The length of SiriusXM in-car free trials varies, with the vast majority spanning three months.
    “What does this mean [for SiriusXM]? I think that the example I’d probably use is Netflix. It had a very similar dilemma,” Thorsen said.
    For years, Netflix balked at adding commercials to its streaming service.
    “They found themselves, at least domestically in the U.S., with slowing growth. They had to find a way to embrace something that was a little bit more price-conscious,” Thorsen said.
    Netflix and SiriusXM both already have a lot of subscribers, a natural limiter of growth. Netflix, for its part, has stopped reporting its quarterly subscriber growth to put the focus on its profitability and other metrics. When the company reported losses in 2022, its stock price took a hit. Since introducing an ad-supported plan and a crackdown on password sharing, however, Netflix shares soared.
    Meanwhile, SiriusXM also faces competitive pressures. Namely, there’s the rise of technology that allows consumers to stream other services in their cars, such as Spotify and Apple Music. While the company has owned Pandora since 2019, it’s been focused in recent years on building out the SiriusXM streaming-only app.

    Driving profits

    In the face of these challenges, SiriusXM is leaning into what it has long considered its strength — its position in the car — spearheaded by CEO Jennifer Witz.
    Months after it was split from John Malone’s Liberty Media empire, SiriusXM announced in December an updated strategic plan with the aim of focusing on its in-car radio business and a new focus on advertising. It also announced Thorsen as COO and provided investors with fresh financial targets.
    SiriusXM said it would shift marketing and other resources away from what it called “high-cost” audiences in streaming, which often drop in and out of subscription plans, “to focus resources on core revenue-generating segments.” In-car subscriptions make up 90% of its customer base.
    “We entered this year with a very clear focus on what we do best, which is super-serving our core audience segments with our unmatched distribution in the car and our very unique content offering focused on live, exclusive and human-curated content,” said Witz at an investor conference in May. “I am confident we’re on the right path.”
    SiriusXM ended its first quarter with 33 million total subscribers, a decrease of 303,000 subscribers during the period. Gross profit for SiriusXM was $937 million, down 6% from the prior-year period, with a gross margin of 59%, 1 percentage point lower than the prior year period.
    In total, SiriusXM reported $2.07 billion in quarterly revenue for its most recent quarter, a drop of 4% from the prior year, and net income of $204 million, down from $241 million. The results also includes Pandora and other off-platform business. The company’s next earnings report comes on July 31.
    Advertising revenue is already playing a role in the business. SiriusXM had roughly $1.8 billion in total ad revenue in 2024. In May it reported $394 million in ad revenue for its most recent quarter, a decline from the same period in the prior year. This was partially offset by the growing podcast business.
    Still, the introduction of the ad-supported subscription plan comes during a weak point for the advertising market.
    The ad market across traditional media has been soft in recent years, particularly due to macroeconomic challenges. That was amplified this year due to President Donald Trump’s trade policies that threw corporate expenses into question.
    Scott Walker, SiriusXM’s chief advertising revenue officer, called the current ad environment “unpredictable.”
    “Our business ebbs and flows with the macroenvironment, and there’s certainly been a lot of companies that have been disrupted by tariff noise, especially those with supply chains overseas,” said Walker.

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    JPMorgan Chase tops estimates on stronger-than-expected trading, investment banking

    Here’s what the company reported: Earnings of $5.24 a share
    Revenue of $45.68 billion vs $44.06 billion estimate

    Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 22nd, 2025.
    Gerry Miller | CNBC

    JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday topped analysts’ estimates on better-than-expected revenue from fixed income trading and investment banking.
    Here’s what the company reported:

    Earnings: $5.24 a share, may not compare with $4.48 a share LSEG estimate
    Revenue: $45.68 billion vs $44.06 billion estimate

    The bank said that second-quarter earnings fell 17% to $14.9 billion, or $5.24 a share, from the year-earlier period, when it had a $7.9 billion gain on Visa shares. Even when backing out a $774 million income tax benefit that boosted per share earnings by 28 cents, JPMorgan topped estimates for the quarter.
    Revenue fell 10% to $45.68 billion, though the comparison with a year ago was also impacted by the bank’s Visa stake.
    CEO Jamie Dimon touted his bank’s results and ability to boost dividends and repurchase shares while repeating his frequent warnings about the risks from U.S. trade policy, overseas conflict and rising fiscal deficits.
    “The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter,” Dimon said in the release. “The finalization of tax reform and potential deregulation are positive for the economic outlook. However, significant risks persist – including from tariffs and trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.”
    JPMorgan’s trading operations were able to benefit from turbulent conditions in the quarter as President Donald Trump roiled markets with his push to overhaul global trade agreements.

    The bank said fixed income trading revenue jumped 14% to $5.7 billion, topping the StreetAccount estimate by roughly $500 million, thanks to activity in currencies, rates and commodities. Equities trading revenue jumped 15% to $3.2 billion, matching the estimate.

    IB rebound

    Investment banking fees rose 7% to $2.5 billion on higher debt underwriting and advisory activity, roughly $450 million higher than the StreetAccount estimate.
    While investment banking activity “started slow” in the quarter amid the confusion of Trump’s April 2 trade announcements, activity gained as the quarter went on and markets recovered, Dimon said.
    That explains how investment banking results improved so much from guidance given at the bank’s annual investor conference in May, when it said that revenue there was headed for a “mid-teens” percentage decline.
    JPMorgan’s results in the quarter were also helped by a $2.8 billion provision for credit losses, which is better than the $3.14 billion expected by analysts.
    The bank boosted its guidance around net interest income to roughly $95.5 billion, or about $1 billion more than an earlier forecast. NII is a key measure of bank profitability that is the difference between what a bank pays for deposits and what it earns on investments and loans.
    Citigroup and Wells Fargo also topped analyst estimates on Tuesday, while Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are scheduled to report Wednesday.
    This story is developing. Please check back for updates. More

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    ‘Lost their identity’: Why Target is struggling to win over shoppers and investors

    Target’s shares have plummeted and annual sales have stagnated for four years.
    Customers, vendors and former employees told CNBC that the discounter has lost some of the unique traits that helped it stand out, including its eye-catching merchandise, attentive staff and well-kept stores.
    The big-box retailer is expected to gain a new leader, too, as CEO Brian Cornell’s contract winds down.

    Mary Molina of Westchester, New York, said she used to shop at Target once a week. She said she now buys more from Walmart and Amazon and makes Target trips once every two or three months instead of every week.
    Courtesy of Mary Molina

    Shortly before a road trip in early 2024, Mary Molina realized her view of Target had changed.
    Molina, a mother of five and entrepreneur who lives in Westchester, New York, said her weekly trips to Target looked and felt different from her experience before the Covid pandemic. Items such as national brands of laundry detergent or shampoo were often out of stock. She said store employees weren’t as friendly as before, with heads down or eyes glued to a handheld device as they picked orders for an online shopper. And when she browsed for the cute and trendy swimsuits, pajama sets or sandals she had typically found at Target, she said it felt like “a sea of generic.”

    “It was a small evolution, and then one day, my husband said, ‘Let’s stop at Target and then we’ll go to Rhode Island,'” she said of preparing for the road trip. “And I said, ‘What for?'”
    Molina and customers like her reflect a fading loyalty to Target that’s testing its business model and slowing its sales.

    The retailer, which gained a loyal following over decades for its quirky, progressive and chic approach to big-box retail, now appears stuck as it tries to grow again and bounce back from lower store traffic, inventory issues and customer backlash. Shares of Target have fallen about 61% since their all-time high in late 2021. That peak came after Target’s sales rose more than $15 billion in the fiscal year following the start of the Covid pandemic, but its annual revenue has stagnated for the past four years. And Target said in May that it expects sales to fall this year.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    Target leaders have described the weaker performance as a blip, pointing to higher inflation or other temporary factors, and expressing confidence in its long-term strategy. In May, Target said sluggish sales resulted from weaker discretionary spending, uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s tariffs and backlash to its decision to roll back key diversity, equity and inclusion efforts.
    But customers, former employees, vendors and analysts painted a picture of a company at an existential crossroads. In interviews with CNBC, they attributed Target’s struggles to the weakening of unique traits that helped the retailer stand out, including its eye-catching merchandise, attentive staff, well-kept stores and commitment to celebrating diversity through both the items that it sold and the policies it supported.

    Multiple former employees, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said Target’s store standards have slipped in recent years as the company has tried to juggle online and in-store businesses with a leaner store staff — leading to items being out of stock. Customers and analysts also told CNBC they have seen longer checkout lines, messier aisles and fewer employees at stores. Plus, former employees said Target’s sharp turn away from diversity efforts, along with cost cuts, hurt corporate culture and employee morale.
    “They have kind of lost their identity,” said a former employee, who worked for the company for nearly a decade but left recently to work for a competing retailer.

    Leadership transition

    The bulk of the work to turn Target around will likely fall to a new chief executive. CEO Brian Cornell is 66 years old, and in September 2022, Target said he agreed to stay in the role three more years. The company has not disclosed when that contract expires or named his successor.
    Investors have speculated about who will lead the company after Cornell — and what that internal or external pick may mean for the company’s future.
    Cornell took the helm at Target in 2014, another troubled time in the company’s history. He started as CEO after ex-CEO Gregg Steinhafel resigned following a data breach that compromised the personal information of as many as 110 million people — equivalent to roughly 1 in 3 Americans at the time.
    Target said it believes it can rebound again from its current low point, as it invests in store renovations and plans to open 300 more locations over the next 10 years. Target declined interview requests for this story, but provided a statement from Cornell, who said the company is “built for long-term, profitable growth,” boosted by its store fleet, growing digital business and brand partnerships.
    “Backed by strong assets, proven capabilities and a talented team, we’re confident in our ability to accelerate near-term performance while continuing to innovate and serve our guests—today and in the years ahead,” he said.
    The company announced several key changes in May as it tries to revamp its business. Target said it was starting an Enterprise Acceleration Office to speed innovation and rev up sales. It tapped Chief Operating Officer Michael Fiddelke, a Target veteran of more than 20 years who also served as chief financial officer, to lead the new effort. He is considered a potential successor to Cornell.
    The announcement of the new office coincided with another shakeup. Target said two key executives would depart: Chief Growth Officer Christina Hennington, another CEO candidate discussed in industry circles, and Chief Legal and Compliance Officer Amy Tu, a retail veteran who was at Target for less than a year.

    People walk by a Target store in midtown Manhattan in New York City, March 21, 2025.
    Kylie Cooper | Reuters

    ‘Not as edgy as before’

    Through word of mouth and social media, Target’s name became synonymous over the years with fashion-forward finds for less. The retailer’s creative approach to merchandise — including exclusive brands and limited-time collaborations with fashion designers — sparked stories of shoppers who went to the store for one item but left with a basket full of merchandise they didn’t know they wanted.
    The discounter’s cheap chic approach inspired some customers to call the retailer “Tarzhay,” a nickname that evoked French high fashion.
    Target turned its giant stores into a mall-like experience where suburban shoppers could order a Starbucks coffee and spend hours browsing the aisles for lipsticks, throw pillows or new outfits. And it attracted time-crunched customers by making it possible to pick up a gallon of milk or box of diapers without leaving the car.
    At its July 2021 peak, Target’s market cap catapulted to about $129 billion — after Americans sought retail therapy during the pandemic and splurged with stimulus checks and money they weren’t spending on travel, dining out or other activities. Since then, the “Tarzhay” formula hasn’t translated in the same way. Target’s market cap has tumbled to about $47 billion.
    As a retailer known for selling discretionary items, Target has been vulnerable to high inflation and economic uncertainty. Rival Walmart is the nation’s largest grocer, and only 40% of its sales come from discretionary items, compared with about half at Target, according to estimates by GlobalData Retail.
    Yet analysts, employees and even the company have said Target faces issues that go well beyond the economy. On an earnings call in the spring, Target’s leaders admitted the company is losing some of its shoppers.
    Target held or gained market share in 15 of its 35 merchandise divisions in the first quarter, Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez said in May. Put another way, it lost ground in the majority of categories that it sells.
    Duller merchandise has driven some of those customer losses, said Stacey Widlitz, retail consultant and president of SW Retail Advisors.
    “They’re not as edgy as before,” she said.
    Widlitz said Target’s brand collaborations haven’t seemed as exciting, either. Target’s recent partners have included weaker brands than they did in the past.
    For example, Target launched a collection in the spring with Parachute, a direct-to-consumer bedding and bath company that shuttered some of its stores as it faced financial difficulties. Target announced a new line that will debut this fall with Champion, a sportswear brand it previously dropped from its stores.
    Target, however, pointed to collaborations that have drawn shoppers in. The company said its recent Kate Spade collection was its strongest limited-time designer partnership in a decade.

    Kate Spade New York and Target limited time collection.
    Courtesy: Target

    Company leaders have touted other moves to revamp its image — including Warby Parker pop-up shops that it’s testing at a handful of stores later this year. Gomez also described the new line with Champion — which hasn’t hit store shelves yet — as “really the epitome of Tarzhay.”
    Even the Kate Spade collection didn’t launch unscathed. Some shoppers poked fun at items in social media posts and mused that Target may be losing its sharp eye for design.
    They pointed to Kate Spade-branded black and cream garbage bags, priced at $10.
    Some suppliers said Target is taking fewer bets on emerging brands as it tries to boost profits. Private label products, which drive higher margins, and national brands, which tend to have more recognition and pricing power, are taking up more shelf space instead, said an executive of a company that advises and represents national brands carried by Target, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of speaking about a business partner.
    That profit-focused strategy comes with “a risk of missing the next big thing,” especially at a retailer known for being a place where shoppers discover fresh items, the executive said.
    “If people feel like they’re not getting what they expect from Target, then there’s nothing special at Target for them,” the executive said. “So why not go to Aldi or another mass [retail] location?”

    Cost pressures and stiffer competition

    Decades-high inflation in recent years forced Target to cut prices to stay competitive. But the company has a difficult balancing act, as it faces pressure from investors after its operating income margin fell below typical levels following the pandemic.

    Widlitz said Target has gotten stuck in a loop of marking down merchandise to motivate buyers. The wave of promotions began in summer 2022 when Target started to sell through a glut of unsold inventory, such as small kitchen appliances and bicycles, that consumers no longer wanted as they prioritized experiences.
    Trump’s tariffs have not helped Target’s efforts to become more profitable, because, the company said, roughly half of its merchandise is imported.
    Target has announced major price cuts, including on 10,000 household items, such as butter, baby wipes and laundry detergent in 2024. And it recently pledged to maintain year-ago prices on key school supplies — moves made to woo value-conscious customers and compete better with discounters such as Walmart and off-price players such as T.J. Maxx.
    It’s also leaned into new revenue drivers that have higher profits, including its advertising business, Roundel, and its third-party online marketplace, Target Plus. The company said both of those segments grew by double digits in the fiscal first quarter.
    At the same time, Target’s competitors have turned up the heat and taken some pages from its playbook.
    Walmart, for example, has launched more fashion-forward private brands, including a new clothing and accessories brand, Weekend Academy, for tweens that debuted this month. It’s also added more items to Bettergoods, a grocery brand with trendier flavors and colorful packaging that launched in 2024 and is reminiscent of Target’s own Good & Gather line.
    Those brands have contributed to the big-box rival’s gains with wealthier households.

    Walmart launched its grocery brand bettergoods in 2024.
    Courtesy: Walmart

    Walmart has gained market share from Target, according to Indagari, a data analytics firm that analyzes billions of debit and credit card transactions from U.S. shoppers to understand consumer behavior and company performance. After customers churned from Target, about half made their next purchase at Walmart and about 30% made their next three purchases at Walmart, the firm found. It calculates churn as customers who lapse from shopping with a brand over an extended period of time, based on the average shopping cadence.
    The number of Target’s customers who are shopping with other competitors, including Costco, Aldi and Trader Joe’s, in the same quarter, has increased over the past five years, the firm’s data showed.
    Newer entrants, such as Chinese-owned Shein and Temu, have also taken market share from Target, according to Indagari. The percentage of Target consumers who are shopping with Shein in the same quarter has risen from about 5% in early 2021 to nearly 10% in early 2025.

    Sloppy stores, inventory troubles

    Empty shelves in a Target store in Danbury, Connecticut, in early July.
    Courtesy of Mary Molina

    Some of Target’s challenges are the byproduct of recent success.
    Target’s annual sales jumped more during fiscal year 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic, than its total sales growth over the prior 11 years.
    But that also brought growing pains that are still tripping up the discounter.
    Inventory troubles have lingered beyond the pandemic at Target. In the most recent quarter, the company said inventory was up 11% year over year, and its profits took a hit from markdowns and cancelled orders.
    In social media comments and CNBC interviews, shoppers said Target has lost a quality that put the retailer a cut above other retailers: Tidy and easy-to-navigate stores.
    Trouble finding items at Target drove Molina — the Westchester, New York, mom — to other retailers. She said she now buys more from Walmart and Amazon and makes Target trips once every two or three months instead of every week.
    Molina said she cut Target slack when the pandemic hit. As a founder of Lola Snacks, a nutrition bar company, she said she understands the challenges of retail. Her products were sold on Target shelves for about a year, before Molina decided to focus on grocers located closer to home.
    “I gave them a lot of leeway because of all this turmoil, but it never seemed to correct itself,” she said.
    On a trip to a Target store in early July, she said she saw many empty shelves, and the only employee who acknowledged her was the security guard.
    Other customers have grown frustrated by Target locking up deodorant, razors and other everyday items, a tactic Target has used to try to prevent theft. Cornell raised eyebrows in 2023 when he said shoppers had a “positive” response to the policy and had said “a big thank you” for it because products were in stock.
    Barclays retail analyst Seth Sigman cut the retailer’s price target in late June and said the company appears to be losing some of its most loyal customers. Sigman wrote in a research note that the firm’s analysis of shopper transaction data indicated that it has had a more pronounced drop among people who historically shopped Target more than eight times per year. 
    On the company’s earnings call in May, Cornell said Target is focused on retail fundamentals, including making sure “we’re in stock every time you shop.” Fiddelke also told analysts that in-stocks had improved from a year ago.

    Digital growing pains

    Target’s e-commerce business, which boomed during the pandemic, brought new opportunities and challenges, too. Digital sales rose from about $6.8 billion in the fiscal year that ended in early 2020 to nearly $21 billion in the most recent full fiscal year that ended in early 2025 — a more than 200% jump. The retailer’s curbside pickup offering, Drive Up, now accounts for nearly half of the retailer’s total digital sales.
    Target has capitalized on that popularity by tacking on more perks, such as allowing shoppers to make returns or get a Starbucks drink without unbuckling their seatbelt.
    Yet two former employees, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said Target’s stores have struggled with a tradeoff of whether to prioritize brick-and-mortar stores or the online business. Target’s stores act as hubs for online fulfillment, with about 96% of total digital volume fulfilled at the locations in the most recently reported quarter, according to the company.
    The employees said that juggle contributed to out-of-stocks on store shelves and weaker customer service as they raced to keep up with online orders.

    As sales stagnated, the company cut costs, which lowered store payrolls and took a toll on employees’ morale, the employees said. Among those cuts, stores received fewer shipments of Target-themed swag to hand out to reward employees, said a six-year employee who recently retired. And the recognition budget for stores got slashed, which meant less money for snacks or coffee in the break room or gatherings like pizza parties, the retiree said.
    The employee said low morale contributed to other problems, including more store workers calling out and falling behind on unloading trucks or straightening up store aisles — all of which can hurt the customer experience.

    Alice James said she saw those store quality issues on a recent trip to her local Target in Austin, Texas. As she shopped for bras at the location, she said merchandise was scattered across the floor, bras weren’t organized by style or size and a rack of inventory intended to stock the department was parked and abandoned.
    James said Target has lost sight of its “secret sauce”: its friendly employees, engaging store displays and fun in-person shopping experience.
    James, president of a fashion consulting company, said Target’s rollback of key diversity initiatives was a turning point for her, too. Her clients include a small brand that lost out on business opportunities when Target pulled Pride merchandise from shelves two years ago.
    “There was a joy to shopping at Target,” she said. “It made you feel good. And I don’t have that same feeling when I walk through Target.”

    Target has participated in the Twin Cities Pride parade for about two decades. The nonprofit, which is based in Target’s hometown, cut ties with the retailer early in 2025 after Target rolled back key diversity, equity and inclusion commitments.
    Courtesy of Twin Cities Pride

    Caught in the culture wars

    For the first time in about two decades, there was no Target float in the Twin Cities Pride parade this June.
    The public split between Target and Twin Cities Pride, the nonprofit that throws the parade in Target’s hometown, captures how brand loyalty has weakened among some shoppers who have objected to the company’s flip-flop on its Pride collection and DEI stance.
    Twice in the past two years, Target has backed away from diversity and inclusion efforts that some customers associated with its identity as a retailer. The company in 2023 pulled some merchandise from its Pride line, an annual collection that it has sold for more than a decade, after it said its employees faced safety threats. It also rolled back major DEI initiatives in January, just days after Trump signed executive orders to end similar programs in the government.
    At the same time, Target has also taken heat from conservative customers who objected to the company’s sales of Pride merchandise for children and tuck-friendly swimsuits for adults, and received praise for its decision to join Tractor Supply, Walmart and Facebook parent Meta in backing away from DEI after Trump’s criticism of those policies.
    Target has made other moves that customers and employees have said are out of step with the company’s image. It donated $1 million to the Trump Inauguration fund, its first donation to a presidential inauguration in at least a decade.
    It is difficult to measure how much backlash to Target’s social and political stances contributed to sales declines, especially since the company’s annual revenue flattened out before the two controversies. However, Target said in May that customers’ reaction to the DEI decision hurt its sales.
    Cornell also reached out to and met with civil rights leader the Rev. Al Sharpton for a meeting in April, a sign the company has paid attention to the risk of boycotts.
    Shoppers once seemed to have a clear idea of what Target stands for — but that has changed among some, even in the company’s backyard. Twin Cities Pride cut ties with Target in January after the discounter’s DEI rollback.
    Target used to give about $50,000 per year to the nonprofit and was one of its biggest donors, said executive director Andi Otto. But the company also contributed in many other ways. Target donated candy and supplies for the organization’s trunk-or-treat Halloween event. It helped stock the Rainbow Wardrobe, a gender-affirming closet that community members could shop for free, with clothing and personal care items.
    “Target was always that phone call I could make and say ‘Hey, this is what I need from you.’ And they would show up every time,” Otto said.
    Then came Target’s DEI decision. After a discussion with Twin Cities Pride’s board, Otto said he sent an email from the nonprofit that expressed disappointment in Target’s move and turned down future donations or sponsorships. To help close the gap, the organization put up a crowdfunding link and raised about $113,000 in total, he said.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    Target has been one of the biggest donors to Twin Cities Pride and participated in the group’s annual parade until 2025. The nonprofit stopped accepting donations from the company in early 2025 after Target rolled back key diversity, equity and inclusion efforts.
    Courtesy of Twin Cities Pride

    Store traffic for Target has declined year over year nearly every week since the week of Jan. 27, days after the company’s DEI announcement, according to Placer.ai, an analytics firm that uses anonymized data from mobile devices to estimate overall visits to locations. Target traffic had been up weekly year over year in the four weeks before that.
    The only exceptions to that were the two weeks on either side of Easter, when traffic rose less than 1% year over year, the firm’s data showed, a sign of the company’s strategy of driving sales with holiday and seasonal merchandise.
    Michael Lasser, a retail analyst for UBS, said customers’ connection to the Target brand deepened loyalty through the years. Yet those same emotional ties have amplified reactions to the company’s decisions, he said.
    “Target customers have such strong feelings about the retailer,” he said. “It can create more risk as these polarizing issues become front and center.”
    The employee who left Target recently after about a decade with the company said the change in DEI policies was jarring for workers after they had seen the company take a more progressive stance on social issues.
    “We had invested all of the time and energy into these programs,” he said. “And then that just disappears out of nowhere.”
    The employee said the moves clashed with Target’s past positions, including taking a public stance on its website in 2016 about allowing employees and customers to use the bathroom and fitting room that aligned with their gender identity.
    After George Floyd’s murder by police a short distance from Target’s Minneapolis headquarters, the company expanded its diversity goals for its workforce and suppliers. It gave $10 million to support social justice groups. And it distributed free T-shirts to its employees, including one with an all-caps message: “Target stands with Black families, communities and team members committed to using our size, scale and resources to help heal and create lasting change,” according to photos seen by CNBC.
    Cornell and other top executives had been vocal in their support for diversity — which customers and employees said led to shock about its DEI rollback. In 2021 remarks, Cornell recalled thinking, “That could have been one of my Target team members” when watching the video of Floyd pinned to the ground.
    On a store tour with reporters in December 2022, Chief Guest Experience Officer Cara Sylvester recounted Target’s commitment to having holiday items that reflected its customers. She said a mom wrote a thank you note to Target after her young Black daughter saw a ballerina Christmas ornament with the same skin color as her own.
    That about-face on diversity issues has contributed to Target’s problems with loyal customers. And it’s just one challenge Cornell and his successor will have to resolve to bring back shoppers.
    Otto, who was born and raised in Minnesota, said he grew up going to Target and would typically shop there four times each week. Yet he hasn’t shopped there since January, he said.
    “The community right now feels like they were lied to,” he said. “And if Target wants to go back to the company we thought that they were, they are going to have to repair that damage.”
    — CNBC’s Robert Hum, Nick Wells and Natalie Rice contributed to this report. More

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    Starbucks employees to return to the office four days a week — or take a payout

    Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol wants employees back in the office four days a week to aid the company’s turnaround.
    Under Niccol’s leadership, the coffee chain has been attempting a turnaround to reverse its slumping U.S. sales.

    The Starbucks headquarters is seen at Starbucks Center on July 3, 2024 in Seattle, Washington.
    David Ryder | Getty Images

    Starbucks corporate employees will have to return to the office four days a week starting in October, the company announced Monday.
    For workers who would prefer to leave the company instead of heading back to the office for an additional day, Starbucks is offering a “one-time voluntary exit program with a cash payment,” CEO Brian Niccol said in a letter to employees.

    “We understand not everyone will agree with this approach,” Niccol wrote in the announcement. “We’ve listened and thought carefully. But as a company built on human connection, and given the scale of the turnaround ahead, we believe this is the right path for Starbucks.” 
    Under Niccol’s leadership, the coffee chain has been attempting to reverse its slumping U.S. sales. His strategy has focused on simplifying the chain’s menu, improving the coffee shop experience and cutting service times to four minutes per drink.
    Shares of Starbucks were down about 2% in afternoon trading on Monday after Melius Research told its investors to sell the stock, citing the unproven turnaround. The company’s shares have risen 2% this year, lifting its market cap to $108.7 billion.
    The turnaround has also affected the company’s corporate workforce. Back in October, a little more than two months into Niccol’s tenure, Starbucks told workers that they were at risk of being fired if they didn’t return to the office three days a week. In February, the company cut 1,100 jobs and said that it wouldn’t fill hundreds of open positions as part of Niccol’s efforts to streamline its operations.
    Starbucks had about 16,000 employees who work outside of store locations as of last year.

    Niccol, a longtime Southern California resident, wasn’t required to relocate to Starbucks’ headquarters in Seattle when the company hired him. In his offer letter outlining his employment terms, the company pledged to establish a small remote office in Newport Beach, California. These days, he defaults to in-person work in Seattle when he isn’t traveling.
    Starbucks is the latest company to push its corporate workers to relocate and spend more time at the office. Last year, Walmart told hundreds of employees working in offices in Dallas, Atlanta and Toronto and remotely that they have to move to the company’s headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas. In April, several Google teams told their remote workers that they have to come back to the office three days a week — or lose their jobs.

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    Nearly one-third of major U.S. housing markets now see falling home prices

    Nearly one-third of the largest 100 markets are now showing annual price declines, according to ICE, a mortgage technology firm.
    Inventory has been rising steadily over the past year, up 29% in June compared with the same month last year.
    Prices are still seeing big gains in the Northeast and Midwest.

    A sign is posted in front of a home for sale in San Rafael, California, on Aug. 7, 2024.
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    Overinflated home prices, high mortgage rates, rising supply and falling demand are all joining forces to cool the nation’s housing market.
    Annual home price growth in June was just 1.3%, down from 1.6% growth in May and the slowest rate in two years, according to ICE, a mortgage technology firm.

    Nearly one-third of the largest 100 markets are now showing annual price declines of at least a full percentage point from recent highs, and the trend suggests more markets will do the same. Single-family home prices were up 1.6%, while condominium prices were down 1.4% nationally.

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    Inventory has been rising steadily over the past year, up 29% in June compared with the same month last year. The gains, however, began slowing this past spring. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered in the high 6% range for most of this year, double what it was during the early days of the pandemic, when home prices initially took off.
    “There are two competing forces in the housing market right now,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE. “Increasing inventory levels are helping to make homes more affordable, but prices are falling in an increasing number of markets and homes are taking longer to sell, which could make homeowners reluctant to list.”
    Regionally, prices are still seeing big gains in the Northeast and Midwest. They are softening in the South and West. Cape Coral, Florida, saw the biggest decline, with prices down just over 9%. Austin, Texas, and Tampa, Florida, are also seeing price declines, as are seven of the 10 major markets in California.

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