Raphael Stevens

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his policy speech at 10 a.m. ET from the central bank’s annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
For all the attention being paid to the presentation, the chances of it containing any startling news seem remote.
In previous years, Powell has used Jackson Hole speech to outline broad policy initiatives and to provide clues about the future of policy.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., July 31, 2024. 
Kevin Mohatt | Reuters

For all the attention being paid to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s policy speech Friday, the chances of it containing any startling news seem remote.
After all, the market has its mind made up: The Fed is going to start cutting rates in September — and likely will keep cutting through the end of the year and into 2025.

While there are still some questions about the magnitude and frequency of the reductions, Powell is now left to deliver a brief review of where things have been, and give some limited guidance about what’s ahead.
“Stop me if you’ve heard this before: They’re still data dependent,” said Lou Crandall, a former Fed official and now chief economist at Wrightson-ICAP, a dealer-broker where he has worked for more than 40 years. He expects Powell to be “directionally unambiguous, but specifics about how fast and exactly when will depend on the data between now and the meeting. Little doubt that they will start cutting in September.”
The speech will be delivered at 10 a.m. ET from the Fed’s annual conclave of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The conference is titled “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy” and runs through Saturday.
If there were any doubts about the Fed’s intentions to enact at least a quarter percentage point cut at the Sept. 17-18 open market committee meeting, they were put to rest Wednesday. Minutes from the July session showed a “vast majority” of members in favor of a September cut, barring any surprises.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker drove the point home even further Thursday when he told CNBC that in “September we need to start a process of moving rates down.”

A question of guidance

A main question is whether the first reduction in more than four years is a quarter point or half point, a topic on which Harker would not commit. Markets are betting on a quarter but leaving open about a 1-in-4 chance for a half, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
A half-point move likely would require a substantial deterioration in economic data between now and then, and specifically another weak nonfarm payrolls report in two weeks.
“Even though I think the Fed’s base case is they’ll move a quarter, and my base case is they’ll move a quarter, I don’t think they’ll feel the need to provide any guidance around that this far out,” Crandall said.
In previous years, Powell has used Jackson Hole speech to outline broad policy initiatives and to provide clues about the future of policy.
At his first appearance, in 2018, he outlined his views on the interest and unemployment rates considered “neutral” or stable. A year later, he indicated rate cuts were coming. In a speech delivered amid racial protests in 2020, Powell unveiled a new approach that would allow inflation to run hotter than usual, without rate hikes, in the interest of promoting a more inclusive jobs market. That “flexible average inflation targeting,” though, would precede a period of surging prices — leaving Powell in the ensuing three years to navigate a delicate minefield of policy.
This time around, the task will be to confirm the market’s expectations while also indicating his impressions of the economy and in particular the moderating of inflation pressures and some concerns over the labor market.
“To us, the key will be Chair Powell’s tone, which we expect to lean dovish” or towards lower rates, Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, said in written commentary. “Simply put, inflation continues to trend towards the 2% target seemingly at a rate exceeding consensus. Combine this with signs that the labor market is softening and one gets the sense that there is little need to retain a hawkish stance.”

Listening to markets

The Fed has held its key overnight borrowing rate in place for the past 13 months following a series of aggressive hikes. Markets have mostly done well under the higher-rate regime but rebelled briefly after the July meeting following signs of a deteriorating labor picture and a weakening manufacturing sector.
Powell is expected to give at least a nod to some economic headwinds, as well as the progress the Fed has made in its inflation fight.
“We expect Powell to express a bit more confidence in the inflation outlook and to put a bit more emphasis on downside risks in the labor market than in his press conference after the July FOMC meeting, in light of the data released since then,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a recent note.
Goldman is about at the consensus of market expectations: rate cuts at each of the next three meetings, followed by more easing in 2024 that eventually will shave about 2 percentage points off the fed funds rate — a policy path that will be teed up, in very general terms, by Powell in Jackson Hole.
Fed chairs profess to not be sensitive to financial market movements, but Powell no doubt saw the reaction after the July meeting and will want to assuage fears that the central bank will keep waiting before it begins to ease.
“Powell is inclined to support the stock market,” said Komal Sr-Kumar, head of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies. “Time and again, he has indicated rates are going to come down. They haven’t come down, but this time around, he’s going to do it.” More

Mike Lynch, who had just recently won a landmark U.S. fraud trial, was found dead in the wreckage of a yacht that sank off the coast of Sicily. He was 59.
Lynch, who was once lauded by the U.K. press as “Britain’s Bill Gates,” was the founder of Autonomy, a software company he sold to Hewlett Packard for $11.7 billion in 2011.
HP and U.S. prosecutors accused Lynch of using financial engineering techniques to artificially inflate the value of his company.

Mike Lynch, 59, is the founder of enterprise software firm Autonomy. He was acquitted of fraud charges in June after defending himself in a trial over allegations that he artificially inflated Autonomy’s value in an $11.7 billion sale to tech giant Hewlett Packard.
Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LONDON — British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch has been found dead in the wreckage of his superyacht, which sank off the coast of Sicily earlier this week. He was 59 years old.
Just two months ago, Lynch won a stunning victory in a landmark U.S. trial over allegations from Hewlett Packard that he had artificially inflated the value of his company Autonomy when he sold it to the U.S. enterprise tech giant for $11.7 billion in 2011.

Fears for Lynch’s life swirled earlier this week when he was reported missing after the sinking of a yacht — later confirmed as owned by his wife, Angela Bacares — off the coast of Porticello, a small fishing village in the province of Palermo in Italy.
Bacares was one of 15 people rescued rescued following the yacht’s collapse earlier this week.
The anchored vessel, a 56-meter (184 feet) sailing yacht named the Bayesian, was hit by a violent storm early Monday morning.
Witnesses told local media the boat, which was carrying 10 crew members and 12 passengers, descended rapidly after its mast broke.
Lynch’s body was retrieved from the wreckage of the yacht Wednesday, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC on Thursday. His daughter, Hannah, remains unaccounted for, according to the source, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the situation. Sky News earlier reported the news.

‘Britain’s Bill Gates’

Born in Ilford, a large town in East London, to Irish parents in 1965, Lynch grew up near Chelmsford in the English county of Essex. His mother was a nurse and his father was a fireman.
Lynch had a modest upbringing but, at the age of 11, he was awarded a scholarship to attend Bancroft’s School, a private school in Woodford Green, East London.

Mike Lynch, founder of Autonomy, speaks at a Confederation of British Industry conference in London, U.K., in 2003.
Graham Barclay | Bloomberg | Getty Images

From Bancroft’s, he attended the University of Cambridge, where he studied natural sciences, focusing on areas including electronics, mathematics and biology.
After completing his undergraduate studies, Lynch completed a Ph.D. in signals processing and communications.
Toward the end of the 1980s, Lynch founded Lynett Systems Ltd., a firm which produced designs and audio products for the music industry.
A few years later, in the early 1990s, he founded a fingerprint recognition business called Cambridge Neurodynamics, which counted the South Yorkshire Police among its customers.
But his big break came in 1996 with Autonomy, which he co-founded with David Tabizel and Richard Gaunt as a spinoff from Cambridge Neurodynamics. The company scaled into one of Britain’s biggest tech firms.
Autonomy’s software, made up of pattern-matching algorithms, was touted as a solution that could help employees abstract meaning from unstructured data, including web pages, email, video, audio and text.
These pattern recognition techniques were based on so-called Bayesian inference, a method of statistical inference named after a theorem developed by 18th century statistician Thomas Bayes.
Lynch’s luxury yacht, the Bayesian, was named after this mathematical model.

Autonomy founder Mike Lynch poses at the company’s then-offices near Cambridge, U.K, on Thursday, July 19, 2007.
Graham Barclay | Bloomberg | Getty Images

After the sale of his company to HP, Lynch became known by U.K. national media as “Britain’s Bill Gates,” serving as a rare example of a U.K. businessman who successfully built and scaled a globally significant tech business selling into various markets around the world.

Legal battle with HP

However, Lynch’s reputation would go on to take a hit after the deal with HP took a turn for the worse. In 2012, HP took an $8.8 billion write-down on the value of Autonomy — just a year after buying it.
Lynch soon became the target of a protracted legal battle with the U.S. tech giant, with HP suing Lynch for $5 billion in damages over accusations that Lynch had inflated Autonomy’s sales by about $700 million.
Lynch, who had long denied the allegations, was extradited from Britain to the U.S. in 2023 to stand trial over the HP allegations.
This came despite pressure on the U.K. government from Lynch’s supporters not to allow his extradition.
U.S. prosecutors had filed criminal charges including wire fraud and conspiracy for an alleged scheme to inflate Autonomy’s revenue starting in 2009, partly to entice a buyer.
However, in a stunning victory in June, Lynch was acquitted of fraud charges following trial. The trial lasted three months.

Mike Lynch leaves the Rolls Building in London following the civil case over his £8.4 billion sale of his software firm Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard in 2011. Picture date: Monday March 25, 2019.
Dominic Lipinski | PA Images | Getty Images

During the course of the trial, Lynch took the stand in his own defense. He denied wrongdoing and told jurors that HP botched Autonomy’s integration.
Prosecutors had alleged Lynch, along with Autonomy’s now-deceased finance executive Stephen Chamberlain, who also died in a tragic car crash Saturday, padded Autonomy’s finances in a number of ways.
These included back-dated agreements, concealing the firm’s loss-making business by reselling hardware, and intimidating or paying off individuals who had raised concerns.
However, Lynch told jurors he had focused on tech-related matters at Autonomy, not finances.
Accounting and money decisions were left to Autonomy’s then-chief financial officer, Sushovan Hussain, he said.
Hussain was separately convicted in the U.S. in 2018 on charges of conspiracy, wire fraud and securities fraud related to the HP deal. He was released from prison in January after serving a five-year sentence.

Lynch’s influence on UK tech

Alongside founding Autonomy, Lynch also runs Invoke Capital, a venture capital firm focused on backing European tech startups. He founded Invoke in 2012.
He became a key voice supporting the U.K. technology industry, backing key names like cybersecurity firm Darktrace and legal tech firm Luminance.

Publicly listed Darktrace, which had fended off similar allegations of inflating its revenue by U.S. short seller Quintessential Capital Management, earlier this year agreed to a deal to be bought out and taken private by U.S. private equity firm Thoma Bravo for $5.32 billion in cash.
Lynch was previously on the board of U.K. broadcaster BBC, and once also served as an advisor to the U.K. government on the Council for Science and Technology.
In 2014 and 2015, he made the Forbes’ billionaires list, with an estimate net worth of $1 billion. However, while facing legal costs amid his dispute with HP, he dropped off that list in 2016.
Legal struggles aside, Lynch had several hobbies to keep him busy, including keeping and caring for cattle and pigs at his home in Suffolk.

Mike Lynch, founder of software firm Autonomy, at the company’s headquarters in, Cambridge, U.K., Aug. 24,  2000.
Bryn Colton | Hulton Archive | Getty Images

“I keep rare breeds,” Lynch told LeadersIn in a 2016 interview. “I have cows that became defunct in the 1940s and pigs that no one has kept since the medieval times and none of them have any Apple products whatsoever.”
Prior to his death, Lynch had reportedly returned to his farm in Suffolk, a county in the east of England, to recover from his U.S. legal battle, the local East Anglian Times newspaper reported.
Just weeks before he was reported missing, Lynch told The Times newspaper of how he feared dying in prison if found guilty over the HP allegations.
“‘If this had gone the wrong way, it would have been the end of my life as I have known it in any sense,” Lynch said in the interview with The Times.
“It’s bizarre, but now you have a second life – the question is, what do you want to do with it?” he added. More

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker provided a strong endorsement to an interest rate cut on the way.
“I think it means this September we need to start a process of moving rates down,” Harker told CNBC.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid also spoke to CNBC, offering a less direct take on the future of policy, though he leaned toward a cut ahead.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday provided a strong endorsement to an interest rate cut on the way September.
Speaking to CNBC from the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Harker gave the most direct statement yet from a central bank official that monetary policy easing is almost a certainty when officials meeting again in less than a month.

The position comes a day after minutes from the last Fed policy meeting gave a solid indication of a cut ahead, as officials gain more confidence in where inflation is headed and look to head off any potential weakness in the labor market.
“I think it means this September we need to start a process of moving rates down,” Harker told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a “Squawk on the Street” interview. Harker said the Fed should ease “methodically and signal well in advance.”
With markets pricing in a 100% certainty of a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, cut, and about a 1-in-4 chance of a 50 basis point reduction, Harker said it’s still a toss-up in his mind.
“Right now, I’m not in the camp of 25 or 50. I need to see a couple more weeks of data,” he said.
The Fed has held its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% since July 2023 as it tackles a lingering inflation problem. Markets briefly rebelled after the July Fed meeting when officials signaled they still had not seen enough evidence to start bringing down rates.

However, since then policymakers have acknowledged that it soon will be appropriate to ease. Harker said policy will be made independently of political concerns as the presidential election looms in the background.
“I am very proud of being at the Fed, where we are proud technocrats,” he said. “That’s our job. Our job is to look at the data and respond appropriately. When I look at the data as a proud technocrat, it’s time to start bringing rates down.”
Harker does not get a vote this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee but still has input at meetings. Another nonvoter, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, also spoke to CNBC on Thursday, offering a less direct take on the future of policy. Still, he leaned toward a cut ahead.

Schmid noted the rising unemployment rate as a factor in where things are going. A severe supply-demand mismatch in the labor market had helped fuel the run in inflation, pushing wages up and driving inflation expectations. In recent months, though, jobs indicators have cooled and the unemployment rate has climbed slowly but steadily.
“Having the labor market cool some is helping, but there’s work to do,” Schmid said. “I really do believe you’ve got to start looking at it a little bit harder relative to where this 3.5% [unemployment] number was and where it is today in the low 4s.”
However, Schmid said he believes banks have held up well under the high-rate environment and said he does not believe monetary policy is “over-restrictive.”
Harker next votes in 2026, while Schmid will get a vote next year.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

The Russell 2000 may have a profitability problem.
Though the small-cap index gained 10.1% in July, it’s dropped roughly 4% so far in August, as of Thursday morning.

ALPS’ Paul Baiocchi chalks up the volatile moves to the index’s overall composition, with an estimate from Apollo Global showing 40% of those companies have negative earnings.
“[Investors] have basically resigned themselves to the fact that by being in the Russell 2000, I’m just going to have to take the good with the bad,” the firm’s chief ETF strategist told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
To avoid the profitability drag, Baiocchi suggests investors prioritize quality companies, looking at more selective exchange-traded funds such as his firm’s ALPS O’Shares U.S. Small-Cap Quality Dividend ETF Shares (OUSM).
“The idea is quality companies that pay and grow their dividends, and importantly, have less volatility than their peers,” he said. “It allows advisors and investors who have seen small caps go sideways for five years to be allocated to a category that’s lagged.”
In addition to its profitability screen, the fund contains just 107 stocks — a fraction of what’s inside the Russell 2000. Its top three holdings are Tradeweb Markets, Juniper Networks and Old Republic International, each sitting at a roughly 2% weighting in the fund, per FactSet.

Shares of the small-cap fund are down 1.5% month to date — outperforming the Russell by more than 2 percentage points in that time.
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Mike Lynch was founder of enterprise software firm Autonomy.
He became the target of a protracted legal battle with Hewlett Packard after the firm accused Lynch of inflating Autonomy’s value in an $11.7 billion sale.
HP took an $8.8 billion write-down on the value of the company within a year of buying it.

Mike Lynch, former chief executive officer at Hewlett-Packard Co.’s Autonomy unit, speaking at a conference on Thursday, April 25, 2013. 
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LONDON — The body of British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch, 59, has been retrieved from the wreckage of a yacht that sank off the coast of Sicily, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC on Thursday, confirming earlier reporting by Sky News.
Lynch’s daughter, Hannah, remains unaccounted for, according to the source, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the situation. Sky News earlier reported that five bodies pulled from the wreck had been identified by the Italian coast guard, and that Lynch was among the dead.

Lynch, who was reported missing Monday, was one of 22 passengers aboard the Bayesian superyacht, which capsized while anchored in the small fishing village of Porticello, in the province of Palermo in Italy.
On Wednesday, Salvatore Cocina, head of the civil protection agency in Sicily, confirmed to NBC News that five bodies had been recovered from the wreckage of the yacht. The only person confirmed dead by authorities so far has been Recaldo Thomas, a Canadian-Antiguan chef.
CNBC has contacted the Italian coast guard and is awaiting a response.
Lynch was founder of enterprise software firm Autonomy. He became the target of a protracted legal battle with Hewlett Packard after the firm accused Lynch of inflating Autonomy’s value in an $11.7 billion sale. HP took an $8.8 billion write-down on the value of the company within a year of buying it.
Lynch was acquitted in June of fraud charges in a surprise victory in U.S. court following a trial that lasted for three months. He had faced charges of wire fraud and conspiracy for allegedly scheming to inflate Autonomy’s revenue. Lynch denied wrongdoing and told jurors HP botched Autonomy’s integration.

Lynch was also founder of Invoke Capital, a venture capital firm endorsing European tech startups. He became a key voice supporting the U.K. technology industry, backing key names like cybersecurity firm Darktrace and legal tech firm Luminance.
Tributes were paid to Lynch following news of his death.
Russ Shaw, founder of technology industry groups Tech London Advocates and Global Tech Advocates, said Lynch “leaves a legacy as one of the great modern British tech entrepreneurs.”
“His ability to understand how tech can solve big challenges, and then successfully commercialise it was truly unique” Shaw said in a statement emailed to CNBC. “Mike will rightly be remembered for his work in nurturing some of Britain’s great tech companies, including Darktrace, Luminance and Sophia Genetics.”
The Royal Academy of Engineering, which made Lynch a fellow in 2008, said its trustee board, fellows and staff are “deeply saddened” to learn of his death and “send our profound condolences to his family.”
“We have fond memories of the active role he played [as a fellow] in the past, as a mentor, donor and former Council member. He was also one of the inaugural members on the Enterprise Committee,” the academy said on the social media platform X. “Our thoughts are with his family and friends at this time.”
Lord John Browne, former CEO of energy firm BP, said in a post on X that Lynch “should be remembered as the person who catalysed a breed of deep tech entrepreneurs in the U.K. His ideas and his personal vision were a powerful contribution to science and technology in both Britain and globally.” More