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    Why investors are unwise to bet on elections

    To meet the world’s biggest news junkies, head not to Washington or Westminster. Instead, make your way to a trading floor, where information from every corner of the globe must be parsed the instant it emerges. Whatever the news, from coups to company-earnings reports, it probably affects the price of something. This year, amid a seemingly never-ending series of elections, the addicts are not short of a fix. Electorates representing most of the world’s population are heading to polling booths, and not just market-makers but investors everywhere face the tantalising prospect of trading on the results. More

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    Revisiting the work of Donald Harris, father of Kamala

    In a video clip that has gone viral recently, Kamala Harris quotes her mother asking her whether she thought she had just fallen out of a coconut tree. The probable Democratic nominee for president breaks into a laugh at the turn of phrase before explaining, somewhat philosophically, the message of the story: “you exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.” For Ms Harris some of that context is esoteric economic theory. Her father, Donald, is an 85-year-old, Jamaican-born economist, formerly a professor at Stanford University. More

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    Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar. What are his options?

    In September 1985, eight months after Ronald Reagan, America’s 40th president, began his second term, finance ministers and central bankers from America, Britain, France, Japan and West Germany met at the Plaza Hotel in New York. They discussed ways to bring down the value of the dollar, which had risen by nearly 50% on a trade-weighted basis between 1980 and Reagan’s second inauguration. Other countries had expressed alarm; the American trade deficit had ballooned. After the group announced that “orderly appreciation of the non-dollar currencies is desirable” and that they were ready to “co-operate more closely to encourage this”, the dollar plummeted. By the late 1980s, it was back where it traded in 1980. More

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    Chinese EV startups are spending more on research than Tesla is

    Chinese electric car companies are outspending Tesla and traditional fuel-powered cars on research and development as a ratio to sales.
    Many Chinese automakers already spend as much as or more than their global peers on R&D as a percent of revenue, a significant increase from many years ago, Paul Gong, autos analyst at UBS, told CNBC.
    Geely’s vice president of autos R&D, Ren Xiangfei, told CNBC late last month that while the company is looking to improve both hardware and software for cars, the latter can provide more differentiation.

    Nio’s second factory in the city of Hefei has around 2,000 human workers and 756 robots.
    CNBC | Evelyn Cheng

    BEIJING – U.S.-listed Chinese electric car companies are spending more on research as a ratio to sales than Tesla, according to CNBC analysis of the four automakers’ first-quarter earnings.
    It’s a strategy for survival in China’s cutthroat auto market, the largest in the world. New energy vehicles, which include both battery and hybrid-powered cars, have grown rapidly to more than 40% of sales.

    Many Chinese automakers already spend as much as or more than their global peers on R&D as a percent of revenue, a significant increase from many years ago, Paul Gong, autos analyst at UBS, told CNBC. “In certain cases, even in terms of absolute dollars, it has bypassed.”
    Of the four U.S.-listed Chinese electric car companies, Nio ranked first, spending nearly 29% of revenue in the first three months of the year on research and development. That’s far higher than Tesla’s ratio of 5.4% in the first quarter and 4.2% in the second. Elon Musk’s company is known for having a relatively low ratio.
    It’s less clear whether that higher spending can translate into long-term competitiveness.
    Nio has operated at a loss for years and only seen deliveries for its premium-priced cars pick up in the last several months. In addition to car launches, the company has in recent years held events to promote its battery services and other tech, including one on car “quality” in late June.

    “Everyone is talking about involution right now,” Feng Shen, chairman of Nio’s quality management committee said in Mandarin at the event, translated by CNBC. He was referring to a popular term in China to describe fierce competition, especially in the electric car industry.

    “What companies should [compete] on is quality,” Shen said, adding that “if you can’t do a good job on quality, there’s nothing you can say.” He laid out Nio’s wide-ranging plan for boosting product quality, starting primarily with new tech and supply chain innovation.
    Shen, who is also executive vice president of Nio, was previously president of luxury EV brand Polestar in China and worked in quality management at Ford Motor in the U.S. and China.
    Nio in September 2022 opened its second factory in Hefei city, a manufacturing hub for many car companies. The factory has around 2,000 human workers and 756 robots, which automate much of the production.
    “The key is to digitize every stage of manufacturing,” William Li, founder and CEO of Nio, told reporters in June, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese remarks. He said if the digital system can be integrated across multiple levels of suppliers, the company can easily identify problems.
    When asked about global production, Li said Nio would adhere to the same manufacturing standard but did not detail overseas plans.

    Supply chain proximity

    Hefei is the capital of Anhui province to the west of Shanghai. The region is called the Yangtze River Delta, which China claims is home to so many factories that a new energy vehicle manufacturer can find all the necessary parts within a four-hour drive.
    China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told CNBC in a statement that it has worked with car manufacturers and suppliers to create hundreds of best-practice cases and application benchmarks for smart manufacturing in the industry.
    “A key competitive advantage for Chinese companies in China is actually the highly effective or efficient supply chain,” said Jing Yang, a director in Fitch Ratings’ Asia-Pacific corporate ratings division, with a focus on Chinese autos.
    She noted that can help Chinese electric car companies respond more quickly to customers and market needs than traditional automakers.
    Another part of the region, Zhejiang province, is home to Hong Kong-listed auto giant Geely and its U.S.-listed electric car subsidiary Zeekr.
    Zeekr’s first-quarter results show the company spent 13% of sales on research and development. Parent Geely, which did not break out the figure in its first-quarter report, has spent at least 4% of revenue on research in the last four years, up significantly from prior years.  
    Geely’s vice president of autos R&D, Ren Xiangfei, told CNBC late last month that while the company is looking to improve both hardware and software for cars, the latter can provide more differentiation.
    “From users’ perspective, the functions that bring more surprises must be implemented through software,” Ren said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.
    Car software includes driver-assist, in-car entertainment and security features.
    Ren noted that new energy vehicles can support more of these functions since they come with a larger battery than traditional fuel-powered cars.
    “This will introduce a new concept, the software-defined car,” he said.
    Geely last month launched its “Aegis Short Blade Battery,” which the automaker claims passed above-industry standard tests without exploding.
    It’s a rival to BYD’s “blade battery” that arguably launched the company into its position as an EV leader. Geely ranked second in new energy vehicle sales in the first half of the year, putting Tesla in third place, according to the China Passenger Car Association.
    Ren said the new battery, which is set for initial deployment in Geely cars, increases production costs by about 1,000 yuan (about $137.69) versus competitors’ vehicles.
    Since the chemical formula for making batteries is relatively mature, it’s now more important to ensure consistency in manufacturing, he said. “That requires the support of a smart factory.”
    Geely has also released an electric car architecture called SEA that it says allows for quicker production of different sized vehicles.
    “Vehicle platform is probably the most important thing to look at, and then consistency with their approach,” said Taylor Ogan, Shenzhen-based CEO of Snow Bull Capital.
    He said it’s important to see that a company is delivering something fairly soon after announcing it, and that there are separate teams already working on future product releases. “I think that’s the clear differentiator,” he said.

    Tech companies vs. automakers 

    UBS’s Gong cautioned the ratio of research spend to sales, sometimes called R&D intensity, isn’t a definitive measure of tech innovation.
    “If they can sell more cars with a better profitability that basically means their innovative ways are probably right. Some of it may not be in cool features,” Gong said, noting it could include systemized cost cutting. “Less fancy, but really powerful.”
    Xpeng had an R&D intensity of 20% in the first quarter. Li Auto’s was only 11% but the company’s range-extender cars have far outsold pure battery-electric vehicles.
    When it comes to absolute U.S. dollars, Hong Kong-listed BYD spent the equivalent of $1.47 billion on research in the first quarter, or 8.5% of its revenue. That’s more than Tesla’s $1.15 billion spend on research and development during that time.
    For the future, electric car companies are trying to differentiate themselves in terms of battery and software – two categories dominated by CATL and Huawei, respectively, said Jing Liu, professor of accounting and finance, and director of the investment research center at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.
    Liu said it’s unlikely that a company can produce a better product than either supplier, but that means that ultimately it is difficult for automakers to stand out in a market where consumers can easily switch between brands.
    Huawei has touted it spends at least 10% of revenue on R&D. CATL’s intensity ratio was 5.4% in the first quarter.
    — CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report. More

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    NBA says Amazon will be its new media partner, rebuffing Warner Bros. Discovery attempt to match deal

    The NBA said it does not believe Warner Bros. Discovery can exercise its right to match Amazon’s new media rights package.
    The league said it will move forward with Amazon as the third media partner in its new 11-year rights deal, along with ESPN and NBCUniversal.
    Warner Bros. Discovery responded to the league’s statement saying it doesn’t believe the NBA can reject the matching rights.

    Luka Doncic, #77 of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, shoots the ball against the Boston Celtics during Game 5 of the 2024 NBA Finals at the TD Garden in Boston on June 17, 2024.
    Nathaniel S. Butler | National Basketball Association | Getty Images

    The NBA has rebuffed longtime media partner Warner Bros. Discovery’s bid to keep airing games after next season.
    The league told the media company it doesn’t believe it holds legal matching rights for the new media deal. It instead plans to move ahead with Amazon as its third partner, along with ESPN and NBCUniversal, in its 11-year deal worth about $77 billion.

     “Warner Bros. Discovery’s most recent proposal did not match the terms of Amazon Prime Video’s offer and, therefore, we have entered into a long-term arrangement with Amazon,” the NBA said in a statement Wednesday.
    Warner Bros. Discovery acquired matching rights as part of its current media rights deal with the league, which expires at the end of next season. That provision allows the company to match payment for any of the games that air on TNT, which it attempted to do Monday.
    The NBA doesn’t believe Warner Bros. Discovery’s rights extend to an all-streaming package, which was carved out for Amazon. Warner Bros. Discovery also owns a streaming service, Max, which it could use to air games, but the company has told the NBA it plans to simulcast TNT games on Max rather than only putting them on Max.
    The NBA sent a letter Wednesday to Warner Bros. Discovery, addressed to TNT Sports chairman and CEO Luis Silberwasser, explaining why it can’t match Amazon’s package, citing language from the original matching provision, according to people familiar with the matter.
    The NBA cited a provision that said the existing media partner can exercise matching rights “only via the specific form of combined audio and video distribution (e.g. if the specific form of combined audio and video distribution is internet distribution, a matching incumbent may not exercise such games rights via television distribution).”

    In its statement, the NBA said that “throughout these negotiations, our primary objective has been to maximize the reach and accessibility of our games for our fans. Our new arrangement with Amazon supports this goal by complementing the broadcast, cable and streaming packages that are already part of our new Disney and NBCUniversal arrangements.”
    “All three partners have also committed substantial resources to promote the league and enhance the fan experience,” the league added. “We are grateful to Turner Sports for its award-winning coverage of the NBA and look forward to another season of the NBA on TNT.”
    Warner Bros. Discovery said Monday it matched one of the NBA’s three media rights packages, which people familiar with the matter identified as the $1.8 billion per-year deal earmarked for Amazon Prime Video. Disney and Comcast’s NBCUniversal signed deals for the other two packages, part of the league’s $77 billion media rights renewal over 11 years.
    “We have matched the Amazon offer, as we have a contractual right to do, and do not believe the NBA can reject it,” Warner Bros. Discovery said in a statement on Wednesday. “In doing so, they are rejecting the many fans who continue to show their unwavering support for our best-in-class coverage, delivered through the full combined reach of WBD’s video-first distribution platforms — including TNT, home to our four-decade partnership with the league, and Max, our leading streaming service.”
    “We think they have grossly misinterpreted our contractual rights with respect to the 2025-26 season and beyond, and we will take appropriate action,” the statement continued. “We look forward, however, to another great season of the NBA on TNT and Max including our iconic Inside the NBA.”
    Warner Bros. Discovery’s Turner Sports has carried live NBA games for nearly 40 years. The cable network TNT is home to “Inside the NBA,” the popular studio show starring Ernie Johnson, Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and Shaquille O’Neal. The future of the show is in doubt if the NBA doesn’t strike a deal with Warner Bros. Discovery.
    The league also wants its streaming partner to have maximum reach. Amazon Prime Video has more than twice as many global customers — more than 200 million to Max’s roughly 100 million — which may make the service a more appealing platform for the league. The streaming rights are global, even though Warner Bros. Discovery is only bidding on U.S. rights, according to people familiar with the language in the contract.
    Warner Bros. Discovery may need to sue the NBA to claim its matching rights. Lawyers for the company and the NBA have been poring over contractual language for the past several months, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Details of the new NBA rights deal

    Disney is paying $2.62 billion per year for its package of games and NBCUniversal is paying $2.45 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The new rights deal begins with the 2025-26 season and runs through the 2035-36 season.
    The NBA application will be a central portal for games, directing consumers to each national game, whether it is on broadcast, cable TV or a streaming service. About 75 regular-season games will be on broadcast TV each season, up from 15 games in the current rights deal. The league will have two broadcast stations as partners — Disney’s ABC and NBCUniversal’s NBC.
    “Our new global media agreements with Disney, NBCUniversal and Amazon will maximize the reach and accessibility of NBA games for fans in the United States and around the world,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said in a statement. “These partners will distribute our content across a wide range of platforms and help transform the fan experience over the next decade.”
    Disney will distribute 80 NBA regular-season games per season, including more than 20 games on ABC and up to 60 games on ESPN. ABC and ESPN will have one of the two conference finals series in 10 of the 11 years of the agreement. ABC will remain the exclusive home of the NBA Finals, which it has broadcast since 2003.
    NBCUniversal will return as a league broadcasting partner after losing NBA rights in 2002. NBCUniversal will air 100 NBA games each regular season, including about 50 that will be exclusive to its streaming platform Peacock, according to CEO Mike Cavanagh.
    “We are proud to once again partner with the NBA and WNBA, two iconic brands and the home of the best basketball in the world,” Cavanagh in a statement. “We look forward to presenting our best-in-class coverage of both leagues with our innovative programming and distribution plan across NBC and Peacock to entertain fans and help grow the game.”
    WNBA games are also a part of all three packages. The partners will distribute more than 125 regular-season games and playoff games nationally each season. Disney will air a minimum of 25 regular-season games, NBCUniversal will carry 50 regular-season and playoff games on its platforms, and Prime Video will get 30 regular-season games, assuming Warner Bros. Discovery can’t match Amazon’s package.
    Disclosure: NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.

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    Chipotle earnings and revenue top estimates, restaurant traffic rises again

    Chipotle Mexican Grill said its restaurant traffic increased 8.7% in the second quarter.
    The restaurant company beat Wall Street’s estimates for its quarterly earnings and revenue.
    Chipotle reiterated its full-year outlook for same-store sales growth.

    A Chipotle restaurant in New York on July 3, 2023.
    Jeenah Moon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Chipotle Mexican Grill on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations as it saw higher traffic at its restaurants, bucking an industry slowdown.
    Shares of the company rose about 13% in extended trading before losing most of those gains and settling around 3% higher. As of Wednesday’s close, Chipotle’s stock had slid 17% this month, hurt by investor concerns about the health of the restaurant industry. In late June, the company executed a 50-for-1 stock split.

    Here is what the company reported for the quarter that ended in June 30 compared to what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: 34 cents adjusted vs. 32 cents expected
    Revenue: $2.97 billion vs. $2.94 billion expected

    The burrito chain reported second-quarter net income of $455.7 million, or 33 cents per share, up from $341.8 million, or 25 cents per share, a year earlier. Chipotle’s profits rose from the year-ago period due to price hikes that helped offset higher avocado prices and greater usage of oil to fry tortilla chips this quarter.
    Excluding items, Chipotle earned 34 cents per share.
    Net sales climbed 18.2% to $2.97 billion.
    The company’s same-store sales rose 11.1% in the quarter, topping StreetAccount estimates of 9.2%.

    Demand for its food peaked in April, CEO Brian Niccol said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Wednesday. Same-store sales settled around 6% higher in June. Executives said that July has been more difficult to understand, given the Fourth of July holiday, weather disruptions in Texas and a recent tech outage.
    Traffic to its restaurants increased 8.7% despite backlash on social media fueled by customers who said their burrito bowls are smaller. The company has denied reducing its portions but is now training its employees to ensure that customers will be happy with the size of their burrito bowls, which will put some pressure on profit margins.
    “We have focused in on those with outlier portion scores based on consumer surveys, and we are re-emphasizing training and coaching around ensuring we are consistently making bowls and burritos correctly,” Niccol told analysts on the company’s conference call. “We have also leaned in and re-emphasized generous portions across all of our restaurants, as it is a core brand equity of Chipotle.”
    The company is also gaining market share, and restaurant transactions grew across every income level, Niccol said. Other consumer companies, from PepsiCo to McDonald’s, have said in recent months that low-income customers are pulling back more, pressuring their sales. Chipotle, similar to many fast-casual chains, benefits from a customer base that tends to make higher incomes.
    The chain brought back its chicken al pastor in March as a limited-time menu item. More customers have also been ordering its barbacoa, which underwent a name change earlier this year that added “braised beef” to improve customer awareness of the option.
    Chipotle opened 52 new company-owned locations and one new international licensed restaurant during the quarter.
    The company reiterated its full-year outlook that same-store sales will grow by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage. Chipotle also anticipates that it will open between 285 and 315 new restaurants this year.

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    Ford shares tumble 11% after massive earnings miss

    Ford Motor came in short of Wall Street’s second-quarter earnings expectations while beating on revenue, due to warranty costs that have plagued the automaker for several years now.
    The automaker increased its target for free cash flow but maintained its 2024 earnings guidance, disappointing some investors who had hoped for a hike.
    Ford CEO Jim Farley told investors Wednesday that his Ford+ restructuring plan remains on track to make the automaker more profitable.

    The Ford display at the New York International Auto Show on March 28, 2024. 
    Danielle DeVries | CNBC

    DETROIT — Ford Motor came in short of Wall Street’s second-quarter earnings expectations while beating on revenue, due to warranty costs that have plagued the automaker for several years now.
    The automaker increased its full-year target for free cash flow but maintained its 2024 earnings guidance, disappointing some investors who had hoped for a hike. Ford’s guidance for the year includes adjusted earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, of between $10 billion and $12 billion.

    Shares of the automaker were down about 11% after markets closed. The stock closed Wednesday at $13.67 per share.
    Here is how the company did, compared to estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: 47 cents adjusted vs. 68 cents expected
    Automotive revenue: $44.81 billion vs. $44.02 billion expected

    The Detroit automaker said its profitability was affected by increases in its warranty reserves used to pay for vehicle issues. The costs are related to vehicles for the 2021 model year or older, Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler said during a media briefing.
    Ford said recent initiatives to improve quality and vehicle launches are paying off and are expected to help bring down future warranty costs.
    “We’re making real progress in raising quality, lowering costs and reducing complexity across our entire enterprise,” Lawler said during a media briefing. “We’re making real progress on quality that will benefit us down the road.”

    Lawler declined to disclose Ford’s total warranty cost for the second quarter but said it was $800 million more than the previous quarter.

    Stock chart icon

    Performance of several auto stocks in 2024.

    Net income for the second quarter was $1.83 billion, or 46 cents per share, compared to $1.92 billion, or 47 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusted EBIT declined 27% year over year to $2.76 billion, or 47 cents per share, compared to $3.79 billion, or 72 cents per share, during the second quarter of 2023.
    Ford’s overall revenue for the second quarter, including its finance business, increased about 6% year over year to $47.81 billion.
    Ford CEO Jim Farley told investors Wednesday that his Ford+ restructuring plan remains on track to make the automaker more profitable.
    “We are absolutely a different company than we were three years ago,” Farley said during the company’s earnings call, noting the “remaking of Ford is not without growing pains.”
    Ford’s traditional business operations, known as Ford Blue, earned $1.17 billion during the second quarter, while its Ford Pro commercial business earned $2.56 billion. Its “Model e” electric vehicle unit lost $1.14 billion from April through June.
    The Ford+ plan initially focused heavily on EVs when it was announced in May 2021 during the company’s first investor day under Farley, who took over the helm of the automaker in October 2020. It has since shifted to focus more on customer choice and next-generation EVs to drive profits.
    Farley said Ford’s “more realistic and sharpened” EV plan, including focusing on a small next-generation EV platform, will prove worthwhile for the company in the years ahead.
    As of Wednesday’s close, Ford’s stock was up more than 10% this year, as pricing in the automotive industry has remained more resilient than expected, but some Wall Street analysts believe automaker profits may have peaked.
    “We don’t see the second half being much different than the first half, or falling off,” Lawler said. “There’s going to be puts and takes in any half of the year … that was part of our guidance, and we’re planning on managing that.”
    There was pressure on Ford to raise its guidance after crosstown rival General Motors raised its yearly guidance Tuesday for the second time this year.
    GM’s second-quarter results also beat Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations, but the automaker’s stock on Tuesday declined 6.4%.

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    Pfizer’s gene therapy for rare genetic bleeding disorder succeeds in late-stage trial

    Pfizer said its experimental gene therapy for a rare genetic blood-clotting disorder succeeded in a large late-stage trial, paving the way for a potential approval.
    The hemophilia A treatment could become the company’s second gene therapy to enter the U.S. market after Beqvez, which was cleared in April for hemophilia B.
    Pfizer is among several drugmakers to invest in the rapidly growing field of gene and cell therapies — one-time, high-cost treatments that target a patient’s genetic source or cell to cure or significantly alter the course of a disease.

    Kena Betancur | Corbis News | Getty Images

    Pfizer on Wednesday said its experimental gene therapy for a rare genetic blood-clotting disorder succeeded in a large late-stage trial, paving the way for a potential approval.
    The treatment for hemophilia A could become the company’s second gene therapy to enter the U.S. market after Beqvez, which was cleared in April for a less common type of the bleeding disorder called hemophilia B. 

    Pfizer is co-developing the therapy with Sangamo Therapeutics, whose shares closed nearly 40% higher on Wednesday following the data release before paring some of those gains. Pfizer’s stock closed up more than 1%.
    Pfizer is among several drugmakers to invest in the rapidly growing field of gene and cell therapies — one-time, costly treatments that target a patient’s genetic source or cell to cure or significantly alter the course of a disease. Some industry health experts anticipate those therapies to replace traditional lifelong treatments that patients take to manage chronic conditions.
    Hemophilia A is a lifelong disease caused by a lack of blood-clotting protein called factor VIII. Without enough of that protein, the blood cannot clot properly, increasing the risk of spontaneous bleeding and severe bleeding after surgery. The condition occurs in roughly 25 in every 100,000 male births worldwide, Pfizer said in a release, citing data. 
    Pfizer said its one-time treatment significantly cut the number of annual bleeding episodes in patients with moderately severe to severe hemophilia A from week 12 to at least 15 months. The company said the drug also performed better than the current standard treatment for the disease, which is routine infusions that replace the Factor VIII protein.

    More CNBC health coverage

    “For people living with hemophilia A, the physical and emotional impact of needing to prevent and treat bleeding episodes through frequent IV infusions or injections cannot be underestimated,” said Dr. Andrew Leavitt, the lead investigator of the trial, in a statement. 

    Pfizer said the study is ongoing and it will present additional data at upcoming medical meetings.
    If approved, Pfizer’s therapy will compete with BioMarin Pharmaceutical’s one-time treatment Roctavian. BioMarin’s therapy has had a slow rollout since it won approval in the U.S. last year, raising questions about how many patients would take Pfizer’s drug if it enters the market.
    BioMarin is reportedly considering whether to divest its hemophilia A therapy, which costs $2.9 million.

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