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    Boeing would avoid guilty plea, prosecution over 737 Max crashes in possible DOJ deal

    The Justice Department and Boeing could strike a deal that would avoid the company entering a guilty plea or prosecution.
    Boeing previously agreed to plead guilty to criminal fraud last year after the Biden Justice Department found the aerospace giant violated a 2021 agreement.
    A judge rejected that deal, opening the possibility that the plane maker could face trial.

    A grounded Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft at Los Angeles International Airport.
    Eric Thayer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The Justice Department and Boeing are close to a deal that would allow the aerospace giant to avoid pleading guilty or a trial in a criminal case related to two deadly crashes of its 737 Max passenger jet, a person familiar with the matter said Friday.
    Boeing agreed to plead guilty in the case last summer in a deal with the Justice Department after the Biden administration found earlier that year that the company violated a 2021 agreement tied to the crashes. A judge rejected that plea deal last year, citing concerns about diversity, equity and inclusion, and opened the possibility that Boeing could face trial.

    The fraud charge stems from Boeing’s development of the 737 Max. The U.S. had accused Boeing of misleading regulators about its inclusion of a flight-control system on the Max that was later implicated in the two crashes.

    Boeing Co. 737 Max fuselages at the company’s manufacturing facility in Renton, Washington, US, on Tuesday, April 15, 2025.
    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    A final, nonprosecution agreement hasn’t been reached yet, said the person, who was speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing negotiations.
    The Justice Department didn’t immediately comment, and Boeing declined to comment on the matter.
    Under the new agreement, Boeing could pay family members of victims of the two Max crashes. In total, the two crashes of the bestselling Boeing jet killed all 346 people on board the planes.

    Read more CNBC airline news

    The new tentative agreement, which was reported earlier Friday by Reuters, would mean Boeing wouldn’t be labeled a felon. That label could have come with restrictions on defense contractor work.
    Boeing is the country’s biggest exporter and, in addition to making commercial jetliners, it’s a major defense contractor. The Trump administration recently awarded the company a multibillion-dollar contract to build a next-generation fighter jet.

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    Federal Reserve will reduce staff by 10% in coming years, Powell memo says

    U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell departs after holding a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 7, 2025.
    Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

    The Federal Reserve will look to reduce its headcount by 10% over the next couple of years, including offering deferred resignation to some older employees, central bank Chair Jerome Powell said in a memo.
    “Experience here and elsewhere shows that it is healthy for any organization to periodically take a fresh look at its staffing and resources. The Fed has done that from time to time as our work, priorities, or external environment have changed,” Powell said in the memo obtained by CNBC.

    The central bank chief added that he has instructed leaders throughout the Fed “to find incremental ways to consolidate functions where appropriate, modernize some business practices, and ensure that we are right-sized and able to meet our statutory mission.” One method for shrinking the staff will be to offer a voluntary deferred resignation program to employees of the Federal Reserve Board who would be fully eligible to retire at the end of 2027.
    The central bank said in its 2023 annual report that it had just under 24,000 employees. A 10% reduction would bring that number below 22,000.
    The memo comes as the Trump administration has pushed for cost cuts across civil service agencies, spearheaded by Elon Musk and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. Musk has previously called the Fed “absurdly overstaffed.” Powell’s memo did not mention Musk or DOGE as a factor in the decision to shrink headcount.
    The planned staff cuts were first reported by Bloomberg News.
    — CNBC’s Matt Cuddy contributed reporting.

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    How to trade gold and bitcoin after the big stock market rebound

    Gold has cooled after a big run as the stock market rebounded, but it could reach as high as the $5,000 level, according to Van Eck’s David Schassler.
    Hedge fund icon David Einhorn said this week he is bullish on gold.
    Bitcoin has remained in rally mode, but there are new ways to take some of the risk out of crypto volatility using ETFs.

    Gold has cooled after a year-long rally that sent the commodity to a gain of 35%, but even with stocks in rebound mode, the market hedge has room to move higher, according to David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at fund manager Van Eck.
    “I couldn’t imagine a better backdrop for gold,” said Schassler on this week’s CNBC “ETF Edge.” 

    The U.S. government has “huge debt, huge spending and huge chaos” Schassler said, adding that he doesn’t see that changing anytime soon. 
    Hedge fund icon David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital echoed that sentiment on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” in an appearance Wednesday from the Sohn Investment Conference. “There’s a bipartisan agreement to do nothing about the deficit until we get to the next crisis,” he said. 
    Einhorn is long gold and said he thinks it could reach $5,000 in 2026.
    Schaasler also called for the price of gold to hit $5,000 next year. 

    Stock chart icon

    Gold has seen a big jump in the last year, despite a recent downturn.

    Schassler is also bullish on the market’s newer hedge, crypto, and sees the two asset classes moving in the same direction. “Bitcoin is the risky cousin of gold” he said. 

    While it is subject to big swings in sentiment and can trade in tandem with a risk-off move in stocks, bitcoin is up about 60% in the last year, and in contrast to gold’s recent dip, bitcoin is up 10% over the last month.
    There are new tools from the ETF industry investors may want to consider to capture upside in bitcoin while limiting risk, according to VettaFi head of research Todd Rosenbluth. “I’m impressed with what’s happening in the options-based world with ETFs,” he said about crypto ETFs with built-in protection on this week’s “ETF Edge.”
    The use of options to limit volatility in returns has become popular with equity ETFs, but Rosenbluth also recommends investors consider ETFs like the Calamos Bitcoin 80 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF (CBTJ). There is an upside cap, but if the underlying assets fall more than 20%, an investor’s maximum loss stops there. 

    Stock chart icon

    Performance of bitcoin over the past one-year period through May 15, 2025. More

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    How much would a 100% ‘Made in the USA’ vehicle cost? It’s complicated

    President Donald Trump wants automakers to build more vehicles in the U.S. with American parts, but it’s not as easy as it might seem.
    Even cars and trucks that are assembled from frame to completion in the U.S. rely on foreign parts and materials.
    The closer an automaker gets to a 100% “Made in the USA” vehicle, the more costs rise, industry experts say.

    A 2025 Ford Expedition with bronze trim on April 30, 2025 at the automaker’s Kentucky Truck Plant.
    Michael Wayland | CNBC

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. — A white 2025 Ford Expedition SUV with bronze exterior trim rolls off the assembly line at Ford Motor’s Kentucky Truck Plant. It was assembled — from its frame to completion — by American workers at the factory. But it’s far from being completely “Made in the USA.”
    A majority of its main parts — at least 58% as stated on a window sticker — were made outside of the country, including 22% from Mexico. That includes its Ford-engineered, 3.5-liter twin-turbocharged V-6 Ecoboost engine, the heart of the vehicle.

    The popular large SUV is a prime example of how complicated the global automotive supply chain is, and underscores the reality that even vehicles rolling off U.S. assembly lines from quintessentially American companies such as Ford can rely heavily on non-domestic content.
    The massive Kentucky assembly plant that has more than 9,000 people building the Expedition, F-Series pickup trucks and Lincoln Navigator SUV is exactly the kind of facility President Donald Trump is pressuring automakers to build in the U.S. through his use of aggressive tariffs.
    After Trump put 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and many automotive parts, automakers started scrambling to tout U.S. investments and localize supply chains as much as possible. But while the country would benefit from jobs and economic output if all auto parts were sourced and manufactured in the U.S., experts say it’s just not feasible.
    “Some parts that have been offshored will still be cheaper to manufacture in those locations rather than the USA at scale even with some of the imposed tariffs,” said Martin French, a longtime supplier executive and partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors USA.
    Processing and production plants for things such as steel, aluminum and semiconductor chips, especially older ones used for autos, as well as raw materials like platinum and palladium, aren’t prevalent enough in the U.S. without establishing new plants or mines. Those are processes experts say would take a decade or more to create in scale.

    On top of that, the increased costs of a 100% U.S.-made vehicle could price many consumers out of the new vehicle market. That could in turn lead to less demand and likely lower production.
    “We can move everything to the U.S., but if every Ford is $50,000, we’re not going to win as a company,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said last week on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “That’s a balancing act that every [automaker] will have to do, even the most American company.”

    Farley said 15% to 20% of commoditized vehicle parts are difficult, if not impossible, to currently source in the U.S. That includes things such as small fasteners, labor-intensive wiring harnesses and almost $5,000 in semiconductors per vehicle, which are currently sourced largely from Asia.
    S&P Global Mobility reports there are on average 20,000 parts in a vehicle when it’s torn down to its nuts and bolts. Parts may originate in anywhere from 50 to 120 countries.
    For example, the Ford F-150, which shares a platform and some parts with the Expedition, is exclusively assembled in the U.S. but has roughly 2,700 main billable parts, which exclude many small pieces, according to Caresoft, an engineering benchmarking and consulting firm.
    The Trump administration could ease higher prices for an American-made vehicle by offering tax breaks or consumer incentives, much like the up to $7,500 electric vehicle credit Trump previously promised to eliminate.
    But the costs of a 100% American-made vehicle are far greater and more complex than they might seem at first blush. It’s even hard to track what comes from the U.S., as automakers are required to report a combined percentage of Canadian and U.S. content in a vehicle, not just U.S. content.
    The material costs alone, excluding manufacturing investments, would add thousands of dollars to a vehicle’s price point, which would wipe out profits for automakers and force price increases for consumers, a handful of automotive analysts and executives told CNBC.
    The people, who were given anonymity to speak freely, estimated it would add thousands of dollars with each step you took to get closer to 100% U.S. and Canadian parts.

    100% U.S.-made vehicle

    Mark Wakefield, a partner and global automotive market lead at consulting firm AlixPartners, said nothing’s necessarily impossible with time, but the investment needed for U.S. and Canadian sourcing and added costs would increase exponentially the closer a company came to a 100% “Made in the USA” vehicle.
    “The cost gets quantumly more the higher the closer you get to 100%,” Wakefield said. “Getting above 90% gets expensive, and getting about 95% would get really expensive, and you just start getting into things that you’d have to a take a long time [to do].”

    A worker at Ford’s Kentucky Truck Plant on April 30, 2025.
    Michael Wayland | CNBC

    To get that last 5% to 10%, if, or when, you could, Wakefield said, it would start “getting really expensive” and likely take a decade or more to set up raw material sourcing and reshore production of some parts.
    “I don’t think you could do it more than about 95% on average, at any cost at the moment, just because you need to build a lot of stuff that’s going to take a long time,” he said. “The processing and the raw material stuff, it takes a really long time, because those are multibillion dollar facilities that process it.”
    Two executives with auto suppliers told CNBC it would be “unrealistic,” if not impossible, for a company to profitably build a 100% U.S.-made vehicle at this time. Another executive at an automaker estimated the average cost increase for an American-assembled U.S. full-size pickup would jump at least $7,000 to source as many components as currently possible from the U.S. and Canada.
    One expert, generalizing the costs, said it could cost $5,000 more to get a vehicle that’s under 70% U.S./Canadian parts to 75% or 80%; another $5,000 to $10,000 to hit 90%; and thousands more to a higher percentage than that.
    Using that as a basis, the average transaction price of a new vehicle in the U.S. is currently around $48,000, according to Cox Automotive. Say that vehicle is made up of $30,000 in materials and parts. Adding the above costs would come out to roughly $10,000 to $20,000 more for companies.
    Cars.com reports the U.S. is by far the most expensive country to manufacture a vehicle in. The average new-car price of a U.S.-assembled vehicle is more than $53,200, according to its data. That compares with roughly $40,700 in Mexico, $46,148 in Canada and roughly $51,000 in China.
    Excluding raw materials, someone could theoretically start a new car company — let’s call it U.S. Motors — from scratch. U.S. Motors could spend billions of dollars to build new factories and establish an exclusively American supply chain, but the vehicle it would produce would likely be low-volume and excessively expensive, experts say.

    Think of Ferrari: Every car from the iconic automaker comes from Italy, with as many components as possible sourced from the company’s homeland.
    But even Ferrari’s multimillion-dollar sports cars have parts or raw materials for things such as airbags, brakes, tires, batteries and more that come from non-Italian suppliers and facilities.
    “If you did it at really low volume and you’re extremely innovative and different with the vehicle, you could make $300,000-$400,000 vehicles that are all-American,” Wakefield said. “To do it at scale, it would be 10-15 [years] and $100 billion to do that.”

    What’s more realistic?

    Getting vehicles to 75% U.S. and Canadian parts and final assembly in the America is a far more achievable target that “doesn’t really force you to do uneconomic things,” Wakefield said, noting that a few vehicles meet that standard today.
    But even reaching that threshold on a larger scale would likely take billions of dollars in new investments from automakers and suppliers to localize production. Some automakers could make the move more easily, while others would require massive shifts in sourcing and production.
    Vehicles that meet the 75% U.S./Canada parts standard for the 2025 model year include the Kia EV6, two versions of the Tesla Model 3 and the Honda Ridgeline AWD Trail Sport, according to the latest vehicle content data required by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Nearly 20 others are at 70% or higher, while some vehicles still need to be added to the data.
    That compares to 2007 model-year NHTSA data, where the top 16 vehicles — all from GM and Ford — had 90% or more U.S. and Canadian content. Ford’s Expedition at that time was among the highest at 95%, but that was before the expanded globalization of the auto industry supply chain after the Great Recession — and before several major technological advances in cars made new parts and materials more important.
    For decades, there has been a trend for less U.S./Canadian content because of the globalization of supply chains and the increase in the use of Mexico as a source of parts and components, according to American University’s Kogod School of Business.
    Imported vehicles from many luxury brands, specifically German manufacturers as well as Toyota’s Lexus, feature little U.S.-sourced content. Many have none or 1%, according to the federal data.
    The U.S./Canada percentages, under the American Automobile Labeling Act of 1992, are calculated on a “carline” basis rather than for each individual vehicle and may be rounded to the nearest 5%. They are calculated by automakers and reported to the government.
    However, a high threshold of North American parts also doesn’t mean the vehicles are produced in the U.S. The 2024 Toyota RAV4, for example, was reported to have 70% U.S./Canadian parts and is built in Canada.
    “You could have a vehicle, theoretically, that is made in the U.S., but only has 1% parts, content,” said Patrick Masterson, a lead researcher for Cars.com’s “American-Made Index.” 

    Read more CNBC auto news

    Cars.com’s annual index of the top U.S. vehicles takes vehicle assembly, parts and other factors into account. No vehicles from Ford or General Motors made the top 10, while two Teslas, two Hondas and a Volkswagen took the top five spots.
    The study ranks 100 vehicles judged through the same five criteria it’s used since the 2020 edition: assembly location, parts content, engine origin, transmission origin and U.S. manufacturing workforce. More than 400 vehicles of model-year 2024 vintage were analyzed to qualify the 100 vehicles on the list.
    The white 2025 Ford Expedition that recently rolled off the assembly line in Kentucky is expected to score higher than the prior model year, which ranked 78th, because of an increase in domestic content.
    Masterson said there’s been increased interest and popularity for the “American-Made Index” this year amid Trump’s tariff policies and nationalism.
    “Traffic on the ‘American-Made Index’ this year is way, way up. … People are concerned about this, perhaps more than ever,” Masterson said, later adding “it would be extremely difficult to make a 100% U.S.-made [vehicle].” More

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    Cable companies Charter and Cox agree to merge

    Charter Communications and Cox Communications, two of the largest cable companies in the U.S., have entered into an agreement to merge. 
    The deal values Cox at $34.5 billion on an enterprise basis, in line with Charter’s recent enterprise value, according to a news release. 
    Charter’s Spectrum, the brand on its cable, broadband, mobile and other services, will become the consumer-facing brand across all customers.

    Charter Communications and Cox Communications, two of the largest cable companies in the U.S., have agreed to merge. 
    The deal would be one of the largest in the industry – and across corporate America – in the last year. 

    The agreement values Cox at $34.5 billion on an enterprise basis – comprised of $21.9 billion of equity and $12.6 billion of net debt and other obligations – in line with Charter’s recent enterprise value based on 2025 estimated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization multiple, according to a Friday news release. 
    Charter, the second-largest publicly traded cable company behind Comcast, was up roughly 8% in premarket trading from its previous close of $419.57. Still privately run by the Cox family, Cox is among the biggest cable providers, too. 
    The broadband industry has been contending with heated competition from wireless competitors in recent years as there’s been a rise in alternate home internet options like 5G, or so-called fixed wireless. This follows the continued loss of customers from the traditional cable TV bundle.
    Charter had 30 million broadband customers at the end of the first quarter, a decline of 60,000 from the prior period. It had about 12.7 million cable TV customers, with 181,000 losses during the quarter.
    Cable companies have begun to lean on their mobile businesses to retain customers, and Charter has been aggressive in its pricing and bundling of mobile lines. Charter said it had 10.5 million mobile lines as of the first quarter after reporting another quarter of growth.

    The company provides its services in 41 states, and is available to more than 57 million homes and businesses. As of March 31, Charter said it had a total of 31.4 million customer relationships.

    Christopher L. Winfrey, CEO of Charter Communications.
    Courtesy: Charter Communications

    Cox Communications — a division of Cox Enterprises — counts itself as the largest privately held broadband company in the U.S., and has approximately 6.5 million total residential and commercial customers, per its website.
    The company’s services are available to 7 million homes across 18 states, and it said it had $12.6 billion in total revenue as of 2020. Cox began offering mobile in 2023.
    Upon closing of the merger, Cox Enterprises will own roughly 23% of the combined company’s fully diluted shares outstanding, according to the release. 
    The transaction will see the combined company change its name to Cox Communications within a year after the deal closes. Charter’s Spectrum, the brand on its cable, broadband, mobile and other services, will become the consumer-facing brand across all customers.
    The combined company will take on Charter’s current headquarters in Stamford, Connecticut, although it will keep a significant presence in Cox’s home base in Atlanta after the closing. 
    Charter CEO Chris Winfrey will remain at the helm as president and CEO following the close of the deal. Meanwhile Alex Taylor, chairman and CEO of Cox Enterprises, will become chairman of the combined company’s board. Another Cox executive will join the board, and the Cox family will have the right to retain two board members. 
    The merger with Cox comes months after Charter announced it would acquire Liberty Broadband in an all-stock deal that simplifies cable pioneer John Malone’s portfolio. In February, Charter and Liberty Broadband stockholders approved the proposed deal. 
    Charter expects there to be about $500 million in annualized cost synergies within three years of closing, according to the release.
    The merger agreement with Cox is expected to close at the same time as the Liberty Broadband merger, the companies said Friday.
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of CNBC.

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    How NFL quarterback Lamar Jackson is leveraging his horse racing team to build up Baltimore

    NFL quarterback Lamar Jackson purchased the Maryland Colts of the National Thoroughbred League in 2024, basing the franchise in Baltimore.
    Jackson is part of a growing trend of active and retired NFL quarterbacks looking for equity in sports teams.
    Jackson said he has no immediate plans to take ownership in other sports teams. Instead, he hopes to bring new opportunities to the young people of Baltimore.

    Lamar Jackson with the winners of the 2025 NTL Kickoff Race.
    Courtesy: National Thoroughbred League

    Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a singular goal both on the football field and as owner of the Maryland Colts horse racing franchise in the National Thoroughbred League.
    “I just want to win a championship,” Jackson told CNBC. “I want to win one in the National Football League. I want to win one in the NTL.”

    Jackson purchased the Maryland Colts in 2024, basing the franchise in Baltimore where the Colt moniker was previously attached to a Super Bowl-winning National Football League team.
    The Maryland Colts are part of the 10-franchise NTL, which operates a new team-based concept for horse racing. Teams earn points based on how their horses and jockeys finish in each competition, similar to auto racing. Those points are totaled at the end of the season to determine the winner of the NTL Championship.
    Jackson is part of a growing trend of active and retired NFL quarterbacks looking for equity in sports teams.
    Legendary quarterback Tom Brady is a minority owner in the NFL’s Las Vegas Raiders, and former NFL quarterback Peyton Manning is a minority owner in the National Basketball Association’s Memphis Grizzlies.
    Current Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has a stake in the Kansas City Royals of Major League Baseball, Sporting Kansas City of Major League Soccer and the Miami Pickleball Club of Major League Pickleball. He also invested in Formula 1’s Alpine auto racing team.

    Jackson said beyond the Colts, he has no immediate plans to take ownership in other sports teams. Instead, the two-time NFL Most Valuable Player is focused on creating an impact.
    “When we are looking to invest, it has to be something meaningful. I have to see long-term goals when I’m doing something,” Jackson said. “That’s how I move when I’m in the investing space.”
    In addition to bringing a horse racing team to the city, Jackson hopes to bring new opportunities to the young people of Baltimore.

    Lamar Jackson signs a football for a young fan.
    Courtesy: National Thoroughbred League

    On Saturday, as the NTL kicked off its 2025 season at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Jackson hosted a community day where he invited young people to learn about horse racing and careers in the industry.
    “The reason I got involved in the NTL is I saw the vision. Giving back to the underprivileged, this is a no-brainer for me,” he said. “There are a lot of underprivileged kids in Baltimore, and they look at the football players for hope and guidance.”
    The Colts placed third in the opening race weekend.
    Jackson played college football at the University of Louisville, about a mile away from famed race track Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby. But Lamar said he never attended the race while in college.
    Still, his love for horses started much younger, as he grew up in Florida.
    “I was always intrigued with horses,” Jackson said, “I’m from Cypress, a small town in Pompano Beach. There was always this horse track and horse racing going on in our area.”
    The NTL is just one of many efforts to modernize horse racing. All three tracks that host the Triple Crown of horse racing have planned projects to modernize and attract new fans.
    Churchill Downs announced a nearly $1 billion renovation plan in February before suspending those plans due to tariffs. Pimlico, which hosts the Preakness, will begin a $400 million renovation after the race on Saturday. Belmont Park in the suburbs of New York City is in the process of a more than $455 million renovation. More

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    Big Chinese companies like Alibaba show that AI-powered ads are giving shopping a boost

    Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com reported earnings this week that reflected improving Chinese consumer spending, and the growing benefits of artificial intelligence in advertising.
    “The e-commerce and ad revenues were positive surprises as there were expectations tariffs would affect consumer behavior,” said Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar.
    However, a Morgan Stanley survey from April 8 to 11, conducted immediately after the escalation in U.S.-China tensions, found that consumer confidence fell to a 2.5-year low.

    Downtown Beijing on May 2, 2025.
    Greg Baker | Afp | Getty Images

    BEIJING — Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com reported earnings this week that not only reflected improving Chinese consumer spending, but also the growing benefits of artificial intelligence in advertising.
    E-commerce giant Alibaba said late Thursday its Taobao and Tmall group sales rose by 9% year on year to 101.37 billion yuan ($13.97 billion) for the three months ended March 31. That’s above the 97.94 billion yuan predicted by a FactSet analyst poll, and the quarterly growth figure was well above the 3% segment increase for the 12-month period ending March 31.

    “The e-commerce and ad revenues were positive surprises as there were expectations tariffs would affect consumer behavior,” Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar, said in an email regarding the three companies’ earnings results.
    It’s important to note the earnings releases cover only the period before U.S.-China tensions escalated in April with new tariffs of more than 100% on products from both countries — an effective trade embargo. The two countries issued a rare joint statement Monday announcing a 90-day reduction in most of the recently added tariffs.
    The U.S.-China trade dispute since April has negatively affected consumption to some extent, given the increased uncertainty for small and medium-sized businesses, Charlie Chen, managing director and head of Asia research at China Renaissance Securities, said Friday. He expects that as trade tensions ease, consumption will rise.

    But despite lackluster consumption overall, sales of certain electronics and home appliances have done well since last year thanks to China’s trade-in subsidies for supporting such consumer spending.
    JD.com on Tuesday said its sales of for that category surged by 17% from a year ago. Overall, the e-commerce company reported a 16.3% increase in revenue from its retail business to 263.85 billion yuan in the three months ended March 31. That was better than the 226.84 billion yuan in retail segment sales predicted by a FactSet poll.

    On Wednesday, Tencent said its “fintech and business services” segment, a proxy for consumer-related business transactions, reported a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to 54.9 billion yuan in the first quarter.
    While Nomura analysts said that segment revenue growth was in line with estimates, they pointed out in a note that “Tencent ads was a big outperformer in the Chinese ads industry despite the challenging macro environment.”
    Tencent’s marketing services revenue surged by 20% to 31.9 billion yuan, helped by “robust advertiser demand” for short videos and other content inside its WeChat social media app. Tencent noted “ongoing AI upgrades” to its advertising platform.

    AI is boosting ads

    AI is helping Tencent lift its click-through rates — a measure of success for online ads — to nearly 3%, company management said on an earnings call Wednesday, according to a FactSet transcript. That’s up sharply from a 0.1% click-through rate for banner ads historically, and around 1% for feed ads, the company said.
    Combined monthly average users for WeChat, known as Weixin in China, topped 1.4 billion in the first quarter for the first time. The app offers one of two major mobile payment systems used in mainland China.
    Many coffee shops and online retailers also use mini-apps in WeChat for customers to place orders. Tencent said Thursday that its e-commerce operations had grown so large it was now a new unit within WeChat.
    “AI ads improve efficiency and algorithm, which should translate into better targeting towards consumers even if macro conditions are not optimal,” Morningstar’s Wang said. “It is still a bit early to quantify how much incremental benefit AI ads bring compared to non-AI ads, but we have seen some monetization from AI-driven ads.”
    JD said its marketing revenues climbed by 15.7% to 22.32 billion yuan for the quarter, also partly attributing that rise to AI tools.
    On an earnings call Tuesday, JD management said its advertising research and development team is using large language models to improve ad conversion rates and accelerate ad revenue growth. The company added it is implementing AI tools that enable merchants to “execute complex ad campaigns” with a simple command.

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    Advertisers have long sought ways to target ads at the consumers most likely to make a purchase.
    On Wednesday, YouTube announced that advertisers can use Google’s Gemini AI model to target ads to viewers when they are most engaged with a video.
    Alibaba noted that marketing revenue, which it calls “customer management,” grew 12% year on year to nearly $10 billion thanks in part to increased use of the company’s AI tool for boosting merchants’ marketing efficiency, Quanzhantui.

    Uncertain outlook

    However, Alibaba’s overall profit was only about half of what analysts had predicted, sending shares down by nearly 7.6% in subsequent the U.S. trading session.
    China is set to release retail sales data for April on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters predict a 5.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales for April, down slightly from 5.9% growth in March.
    A Morgan Stanley survey from April 8 to 11, conducted immediately after the escalation in U.S.-China tensions, found that consumer confidence fell to a 2.5-year low, and 44% of respondents were concerned about job losses — the highest since 2020 when the survey began. Only 23% of consumers expect to spend more in the next quarter, the survey found, an 8 percentage point drop from the prior quarter.
    Lackluster domestic demand persisted in April, with a 0.1% year-on-year drop in the consumer price index for the month — the third-straight month of decline. However, when excluding food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI rose by 0.5%, the same pace as in March.
    Since the real estate market has yet to recover, and exports are restricted by geopolitics, Chen expects Chinese policymakers to focus on boosting consumption in order to achieve the year’s growth target of around 5%.
    He expects related stimulus policies to include boosting spending on food and beverage, caregiving, travel, sports, and durable goods not yet included in the trade-in subsidies program.
    June 18 marks the next major promotional season for shopping in China.
    “I think we’re going to get a pretty good 618. Now obviously, we’re not dealing with 30% year-on-year growth anymore like we were in the first 10 years” of the shopping festival, Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBC earlier this week. The company helps foreign brands — such as Vitamix and IS Clinical — sell online in China and other parts of Asia.
    He predicts 618 sales growth will rise by “very low double-digits.” More

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    Walmart’s former U.S. CEO Bill Simon thinks retailer can easily absorb tariff costs, criticizes its ‘doom and gloom’ commentary

    Walmart’s business is strong enough to withstand tariff headwinds without increasing its prices, according to the discount retailer’s former U.S. CEO.
    Bill Simon, who ran Walmart U.S. from 2010 to 2014, suggests the company may be overstating challenges tied to tariffs.

    “If you look down deep and dig into the details of their earnings release today, you know this quarter they grew their gross profit margin in the U.S. business 25 basis points. So, they’re expanding their margin. They also reported their general merchandise categories were flattish because they had mid-single digit price deflation,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal first-quarter results. “That sort of gives them room in my view to manage any tariff impact that they would have.”
    Simon is optimistic consumers can largely handle price increases — citing a steady jobs market and cheaper fuel prices this year. But he notes worrisome commentary from corporate executives could be chipping away at consumer confidence.
    “All the doom and gloom we hear about price increases and tariffs like we heard from my friends at Walmart today, I think it scares them some,” said Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands.

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    Walmart shares fell 0.5% on Thursday, but the stock closed above session lows. Shares are off almost 9% from the all-time high of $105.30 hit on Feb. 14.
    On Feb. 20, Simon joined “Fast Money” as Walmart shares were wrapping up their worst week since May 2022 on tariff jitters. He suggested the stock was a steal for investors even though Walmart warned profits were slowing.

    As of Thursday’s close, Walmart shares are positive for the year, up more than 6% in 2025. The stock has climbed more than 7% since President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.
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