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    A rare hostile takeover bid in Europe’s banking sector has shocked markets

    Spanish bank BBVA caught markets by surprise after it announced a rare hostile takeover bid for domestic rival Banco Sabadell.
    It comes shortly after a separate 12 billion euro ($12.87 billion) offer from BBVA to Sabadell’s board was rejected earlier in the week.
    David Benamou, chief investment officer at Axiom, said BBVA’s takeover offer for Sabadell was reflective of “a very strange situation indeed.”

    A logo outside the Banco Sabadell SA offices at the Banc Sabadell Tower in Barcelona, Spain, on Wednesday, May 1, 2024.
    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Spanish bank BBVA caught markets by surprise on Thursday after it announced a rare hostile takeover bid for domestic rival Banco Sabadell, with one investment firm describing the situation as “very strange.”
    The move comes shortly after a separate 12 billion euro ($12.87 billion) takeover offer from BBVA to Sabadell’s board was rejected earlier in the week.

    The board said Monday that BBVA’s initial bid “significantly undervalues” the bank’s growth prospects, adding that its standalone strategy will create superior value. It reiterated this position on Thursday as BBVA took its all-share offer directly to the bank’s shareholders.
    BBVA said its takeover offer has the same financial terms as the merger offered to Sabadell’s board. It characterized the proposal — which would create Spain’s second-largest financial institution if successful — as “extraordinarily attractive.”
    “We are presenting to Banco Sabadell’s shareholders an extraordinarily attractive offer to create a bank with greater scale in one of our most important markets,” BBVA Chair Carlos Torres Vila said in a statement.
    “Together we will have a greater positive impact in the geographies where we operate, with an additional €5 billion loan capacity per year in Spain.”
    Shares of BBVA fell 6% at around midday London time on Thursday, while Sabadell’s stock price rose more than 3%.

    ‘Not so easy’

    Hostile takeover bids are not common in the European banking sector and BBVA’s decision to proceed in this way has taken many by surprise.
    Carlo Messina, CEO of Italy’s biggest bank Intesa Sanpaolo, told CNBC on Wednesday that there were significant challenges to domestic consolidation within the region’s banking sector.
    He said it was difficult to complete a “friendly transaction” in the current market environment, whereas proceeding with a hostile takeover bid was also “not so easy to do.”

    David Benamou, chief investment officer at Axiom, said BBVA’s offer for Sabadell was reflective of “a very strange situation indeed.”
    Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday, Benamou said the proposed offer “makes sense” from Sabadell shareholders’ point of view and, in his opinion, was likely to go through. He cited the fact that BBVA’s offer represents a 30% premium over the closing price of both banks as of April 29th.
    “It echoes to the recent discussions in Switzerland with the consolidation of Credit Suisse by UBS and all the worries about financial stability,” he added.
    “I think the execution of the transaction might be rather difficult, although you can argue it is the same geography, the culture is theoretically very close as opposed to a cross-border merger.”
    Benamou said a burgeoning trend of consolidation among European banks was a logical one, particularly because many regional lenders are “very small” compared to their U.S. peers.

    Signage outside a Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA), right, and a Banco Sabadell SA, left, bank branch in Barcelona, Spain, on Wednesday, May 1, 2024.
    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Spain’s Economy Ministry said in a statement that the government rejects BBVA’s hostile takeover bid for Sabadell, “both in form and substance.”
    The ministry also warned that the proposed deal “introduces potential harmful effects on the Spanish financial system.” More

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    Could America and its allies club together to weaken the dollar?

    The Plaza Hotel has New York glamour in spades. Sitting at a corner of Central Park, it was the setting for “Home Alone 2”, a film that came out in 1992 in which a child finds himself lost in the metropolis. He takes up residence in one of the hotel’s suites, thanks to his father’s credit card, and briefly lives a life of luxury. Donald Trump, the hotel’s owner at the time, has a walk-on part, which was the outcome of a hard bargain. According to the film’s director, he demanded to appear as a condition for giving the filmmakers access to the hotel. This was not the first deal in which the venue had played a part. Seven years earlier it hosted negotiators for the Plaza Accord, which was agreed on by America, Britain, France, Japan and West Germany, and aimed for a depreciation of the dollar against the yen and the Deutschmark.Echoes of the period can be heard today. In the mid-1980s America was booming. Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts had led to a wide fiscal deficit and the Federal Reserve had raised interest rates to bring inflation to heel. As a consequence, the dollar soared. American policymakers worried about a loss of competitiveness to an up-and-coming Asian economy (Japan then, China today). The Plaza Accord was designed to address what officials saw as the persistent mispricing of the dollar. Robert Lighthizer, Mr Trump’s trade adviser, has mulled a repeat. The accord set a precedent for “significant negotiation between America’s allies to address unfair global practices”, he wrote in “No Trade is Free”, a book published last year. Mr Trump’s team is reportedly considering options to devalue the dollar if the former president returns to office. More

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    Banks, at least, are making money from a turbulent world

    Working on a trading desk is perhaps the closest an office job can get to a sport. Focus and reflexes matter. On the other side of every trill of the phone or ding from a computer is a client who wants to trade. If ignored, they will hang up and call a competitor. Everyone is sweating, owing to the heat wafting up from stacks of computers whirring at capacity. On a busy day, it is impossible to leave the desk—making the job a feat of endurance. Just as sports teams use code to communicate their tactics, so do traders: “cable, a yard, mine, Geneva,” translates to “Brevan Howard, a hedge fund, is buying £1bn and selling dollars.” Mistakes cause swearing, shouting and sometimes the smashing of equipment.Or at least that is how it was a couple of decades ago, in the good old days. Following the global financial crisis of 2007-09, life sapped from the trading floor. Stringent new rules curbed profits. High-frequency traders ate banks’ lunches, especially in stockmarkets. For its part, the global economy was in a stupor, having been tranquillised by low interest rates. Markets moved linearly, with equities drifting up and bond yields slipping down. There were fireworks—the Brexit vote or the election of Donald Trump—but they were rare. This placid world provided investors with little reason to trade in and out of positions. Revenues were slim; returns sagged. Drama on trading floors featured lay-offs, rather than market moves. More

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    Against expectations, European banks are thriving

    In 2020, when BBVA and Sabadell abandoned merger discussions, it was difficult to find investors with anything positive to say about European banks. A decade of near-zero interest rates, stiff regulation and anaemic economic growth had made them unprofitable and unattractive. The two Spanish lenders were no exception. BBVA had a market value of €26bn ($32bn), less than 40% of its 2007 peak. At €2bn, Sabadell was worth only a fifth of the accounting (“book”) value of its equity.Chart: The Economist More

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    Why the global cocoa market is melting down

    BARRY CALLEBAUT, the world’s largest maker of bulk chocolate, is full of beans. Its share price has jumped by 20% since April, when it reported higher sales volumes despite a steep rise in the cost of cocoa. Peter Feld, its boss, told investors not to worry about expensive ingredients: “What goes up fast comes down fast.”Chart: The Economist More

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    What Xi Jinping gets wrong about China’s economy

    The EU is no stranger to overcapacity. Its economic landscape once featured butter mountains, milk lakes and other landmarks of excess production—the surreal results of its common agricultural policy, which guaranteed high prices to dairy farmers. Thus the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, knew what she was talking about when she warned Xi Jinping, China’s ruler, about his country’s “structural overcapacities” at a recent meeting in Paris.Her concern was not farming but manufacturing. Europe is worried about a flood of electric vehicles and steel from China, which could displace cherished industries and jobs in the union. China’s steel exports, measured in tonnes, increased by more than 28% in the first three months of this year, compared with a year earlier. Its exports of new-energy vehicles increased by almost 24%. In response, the EU is considering “countervailing” tariffs to offset the subsidies that have assisted the growth of China’s industry. More

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    What would get China’s consumers spending?

    On a regular Tuesday morning, a large crowd has gathered outside a grocery store in Xuchang, a city of 4m people. Visit Pangdonglai at the weekend and things are even busier. Thousands, some having travelled hundreds of kilometres, arrive before dawn to take their place in a queue that snakes back and forth in front of the store’s entrance. At a time when China’s ritziest shopping centres are often desolate, and the country’s economy is struggling, the success of Pangdonglai’s 13 outlets is captivating executives who want to understand consumer sentiment.The latest economic data make the queues still more intriguing. Retail spending grew by just 3.1% in March year on year—well below expectations. In the same month, listed retail firms revised down their expected earnings by an average of 7%. In Shanghai, where per-person consumer spending is three times higher than in Pangdonglai’s home province, high-end grocers are closing down. One such chain, CityShop, announced in April that it would shut its doors for good after 29 years. Pangdonglai’s success contains lessons about both what may be needed to revive China’s economy and the shape that such a revival might take. More