Raphael Stevens

Cannabis stocks are positioned for a potential uptick, with analysts citing hopes for new federal rules on hemp-derived products and signals that President Donald Trump may ease marijuana restrictions.
In September, Trump posted a video on Truth Social promoting Medicare coverage for CBD and unverified anti-aging claims.
There’s also been movement in Congress to regulate hemp, which experts say is a far less intoxicating variant of the marijuana plant.

Oils containing CBD (Cannabidiol).
Geoffroy Van Der Hasselt | AFP | Getty Images

Cannabis stocks could be poised for a rally after years of stagnation, fueled by investor optimism over the possibility for new federal rules for hemp-derived products and signals that President Donald Trump could take a more permissive stance on marijuana.
Publicly traded cannabis companies have seen their share of ups and downs. Verano Holdings reported earnings Wednesday that saw revenues of $203 million, up slightly from the previous quarter but down 6% year-over-year. However, Verano posted a net loss of $44 million, partly due to a $5 million impairment charge on a facility in Pennsylvania and $10 million in legal contingencies as a result of a settlement.

Next week, two U.S. cannabis giants, Curaleaf and Trulieve, are set to follow in reporting earnings. While the sector is down roughly 10% this year, based on cannabis-focused ETFs, some executives, like the CEO of Tilray Brands, remain optimistic for a turnaround. Already, in October, Tilray Brands’ stock jolted up 22% after reporting better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results.
“We could be looking at a true inflection point for cannabis. If reforms move forward, it could attract more companies to do business in the U.S.,” Tilray CEO Irwin Simon told CNBC.

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Cannabis company stocks Tilray Brands, Curaleaf and Trulieve

Three developments are driving the growth: Trump’s seeming embrace of Medicare coverage for CBD, a non-intoxicating hemp-derived cannabis compound; the president’s statements about reclassifying the drug status of marijuana; and movement in Congress to regulate hemp.
Meanwhile, cannabis is becoming more popular than ever. As of a 2024 report, daily or near-daily marijuana use surpassed daily drinking in the U.S., based on analysis of 40 years of data from Carnegie Mellon University.
The annual value of the U.S. production of cannabis grew 40% last year from the previous year, according to the Department of Agriculture, and cannabis-derived products, which include CBD and marijuana-based items, are now projected to reach a $160 billion global market by 2032, according to Grand View Research.

The ‘Trump effect’

Optimism in the cannabis market surged in September after Trump shared a video on Truth Social that promoted Medicare coverage of CBD and made unproven anti-aging claims about the substance. 
The video was produced by The Commonwealth Project — which advocates for seniors using cannabis and was founded and is funded by Palm Beach billionaire Howard Kessler — and directly appealed to the president.
Known for pioneering affinity credit cards, Kessler shifted to cannabis advocacy in 2019 but has been in Trump’s orbit since at least 2005, attending Trump’s wedding to Melania Trump and appearing at Mar-a-Lago and state dinners. Neither Kessler nor the White House responded to a request for comment on the matter.
Cannabis stocks reacted immediately to the video. On the day it was posted, shares of Tilray spiked 42%, while Aurora Cannabis stock gained 25%, shares of Canopy Growth jumped 18% and Cronos Group stock added 15.5%.
“A lot of folks in the industry saw him [Trump] posting the video as a bit of a surprise but we think he’s trying to gauge how the public feels about cannabis products,” said Adam Smith, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project, which advocates for the legalization of marijuana. “Some people call it the ‘Trump effect,’ and think if he leans into CBD, it’s possible that other Republicans will support.”
There is limited data on effective doses of CBD for inflammation or chronic pain, particularly in seniors, according to the National Institutes of Health. Kevin Sabet, president of Smart Approaches to Marijuana, an organization opposed to marijuana, said people are overreacting to the post.
“It’s a big stretch to say a post or two is a fully throated endorsement of reform,” Sabet told CNBC. “A lot of times his posts don’t line up with formal policy positions.”
To date, the FDA has only approved one CBD-based drug, Epidiolex, to treat rare forms of epilepsy. Other uses lack scientific evidence and have “largely unknown” effects, said Meg Haney, director of the Cannabis Research Laboratory at Columbia University.

Emoji gummies by JustCBD are displayed at the Cannabis World Congress & Business Exposition trade show, Thursday, May 30, 2019 in New York. The treats contain non-psychoactive cannabidiol, CBD.
Jeremy Rehm | AP

The Farm Bill

Trump’s post also adds to momentum around regulating hemp — which is a variant of the marijuana plant that doesn’t cause a “high, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — which was legalized under the 2018 Farm Bill. Congress is weighing updates to the bill by year’s-end that could adopt long-awaited federal standards for labeling, testing and safety of hemp-derived products left unregulated under the original law.
“Regulation isn’t scary, as long as it is effective, because the clearer the lines are, the better it is to be in the business [when] you don’t have a looming axe over your head,” said Pamela Epstein, the chief legal and regulatory officer of hemp producer Terpene Belt Farms. 
The 2018 legalization triggered a $1.6 billion hemp market by 2023, according to Grand View Research. Hemp-derived CBD products containing less than 0.3% THC — the psychoactive compound responsible for a high — were legalized under the bill and spread rapidly into gummies, beverages, creams and even pet treats, and are projected to drive more than 20% growth by 2030, the data firm said.
But the vacuum of oversight left consumers exposed to mislabeled, untested and sometimes unsafe products, Smith told CNBC.
“It’s possible in the hemp sector grew a little too fast without rules,” Smith said. “Problems came up with some stuff masquerading as CBD but having high levels of THC, products marketed to kids and some products with tainted samples.”
Proposals in Congress range from an outright ban on hemp to tightening THC limits. Others in the cannabis industry are lobbying for an “alcohol-model” framework — with the FDA overseeing product safety and the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau managing taxation and distribution.
“Clear rules aren’t scary,” said Tilray CEO Simon. “They’re the best way to grow sustainably and shed the uncertainty that’s defined this space for years.”
People like Epstein caution that a complete ban could cripple the hemp economy, which supports about 320,000 jobs nationwide, according to the U.S. Hemp Roundtable and industry-related reports. But others like Michael Mayes, CEO of cannabis consulting firm Quantum 9, said any form of federal standards is essential to legitimize the market and draw institutional investors.
“Federal regulations would help some investors see cannabis as not a fringe investment with their money,” Mayes told CNBC. “By next year, it’s possible. Smart, consistent rules could be the key to unlocking billions in growth while working to ensure consumer safety.”

Marijuana rescheduling

Trump’s apparent openness to CBD has fueled speculation he may go further.
In August, he said his administration was “looking at” reclassifying marijuana from a Schedule I drug — alongside heroin and LSD — to a Schedule III drug.
The move would not legalize recreational marijuana but it would make it easier to sell, advocates said. It would also improve access to banking and financial services because it would lift certain IRS tax restrictions, which bar cannabis businesses from deducting standard expenses. Changes could also ease barriers to conducting scientific research, which experts said has been stifled under the drug’s current classification.
“To demonstrate that cannabis has medical utility, we need to do large, controlled trials, but we can’t really do those if it’s a Schedule I drug. As a result, that means you can’t do the studies needed to reschedule it,” Haney said. “It’s like the chicken and egg conundrum.”
A White House official described the rescheduling process as ongoing and said that “all policy and legal requirements and implications are being considered.”
Cannabis industry sources said investor optimism partly centers on Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, who previously worked at Ballard Partners, a Florida lobbying firm representing Trulieve, one of the largest U.S. cannabis companies. Though Wiles wasn’t registered as Trulieve’s lobbyist, she is described by multiple sources in the cannabis industry as a close friend of Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers. The people spoke anonymously to talk candidly about the matter.
According to the Florida Division of Elections, Trulieve spent more than $100 million supporting a failed ballot measure to legalize recreational cannabis for adults 21 and older. The company reportedly played a key role in securing Trump’s backing for the initiative. For the presidential race, according to Federal Election Commission filings, Trulieve donated $750,000 to Trump’s inauguration committee and another $250,000 to his MAGA Inc. super PAC.
Rivers attended two pre-inauguration events, including a dinner for Vice President JD Vance, and reportedly joined a $1 million-a-plate fundraiser at Trump’s New Jersey golf club in August, where she urged him to reclassify marijuana, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Two days after the fundraiser, Trump made his “looking at” comments about marijuana’s classification.
Wiles, Rivers and Truileve did not respond to requests for comment.

A man prepares a marijuana cigarette at Washington Square Park on April 20, 2023 in New York City. 
Leonardo Munoz | Corbis News | Getty Images

Republican roadblocks

Despite optimism from investors and advocates, many Republican lawmakers are moving to rein in hemp-derived products, citing safety concerns.
The backlash stems from hemp’s post-2018 boom, which quickly turned into a glut. Licensed acreage soared 445% over the previous year by 2019, according to advocacy and research group Vote Hemp, but the market became oversaturated with products, which forced many retailers and producers to pivot or close, experts said.
“Very quickly, there became a bloat of products and for a lot of the companies, the financial results weren’t there. There wasn’t growth. You had some really tough balance sheets, and I think the investors were unsure of the underlying fundamentals,” Cronos Group CEO Michael Gorenstein said.
Today, the market has rebounded but remains the “Wild West” without regulations, Smith said. FDA research this summer linked unregulated CBD to potential liver damage, and experts warn that THC in hemp can be chemically altered or added in quantities that make it as intoxicating as marijuana.
Lawmakers have responded to safety concerns.
Over the summer, Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., introduced a bill redefining hemp to exclude any product with “quantifiable” THC, which passed a House committee along party lines. The Senate Appropriations Committee advanced similar language unanimously in July, as Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., — who championed the 2018 legalization effort — called for restoring the law’s “original intent.” A Congressional Research Service report in August said the proposals would “effectively” ban almost all hemp-derived products.
Looking ahead, many in the industry said the future rests on what Trump does next, particularly in the next few months. Even the perception of regulatory change has spurred investor optimism.
“For many of us, it’s not a question of when but what the regulations will be and how they’ll be enforced,” Gorenstein said. “If the next administration delivers clarity, that alone could shake up this industry.” More

Real estate companies are moving beyond initial testing and exploration of AI into more targeted applications that aim to redefine value, according to a new survey from JLL. 
JLL found that 88% of investors, owners and landlords said they have started piloting AI, with most pursuing an average of five use cases simultaneously.
Just 5% of respondents said they have achieved all their program goals, while close to half said they have achieved two to three goals.

Diminishing perspective of downtown London skyscrapers
Chunyip Wong | Istock | Getty Images

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
The commercial real estate market has been historically slow to modernize, and yet it appears to be accelerating its adoption of artificial intelligence. 

Companies are moving beyond initial testing and exploration into more targeted applications that aim to redefine value, according to a new survey from JLL. 
The survey of more than 1,500 senior CRE investor and occupier decision-makers across various industries found that, while still in the early stages, organizations are making AI a priority in their technology budgets. They are also moving from using it just for efficiency to focusing on how it can grow their businesses.
JLL found that 88% of investors, owners and landlords said they have started piloting AI, with most pursuing an average of five use cases simultaneously. And more than 90% of occupiers are running corporate real estate AI pilots, according to the report. Compare that with just 5% starting AI pilots two years ago. The adoption is fast, but not entirely easy. 
Just 5% of respondents said they have achieved all their program goals, while close to half said they have achieved two to three goals. Much of the efforts are still experimental, without much growth. 
“If you think about commercial real estate, traditionally, it is not a quick technology adopter, and it’s usually skeptical,” said Yao Morin, chief technology officer at JLL. “So the high number of adoptions is actually quite surprising to me. What is not surprising on the flip side is that only 5% actually thinks that they have achieved all the goals. This is pretty aligned with a lot of other industries as well.”

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The reason they’re not hitting their goals is because the goal line has moved. Companies have gone beyond just wanting to do certain tasks faster, or so-called operational efficiencies. Now they are tying AI to their revenue goals. 
For example, some are using it to help them improve their investment risk models, making investment and portfolio decisions based on the output of AI. That will require big changes to the fundamental way they operate.
“When you really start moving towards the revenue side, the margin expansion side, then it’s going to require a lot more than just using a technology,” Morin explained. “You can’t just say, ‘Well, I’m saving you 10% to do this particular thing.’ Companies need to actually rethink their operating model, to rethink how they organize to actually achieve the savings.”
And so companies are investing heavily in AI, despite economic headwinds. More than half of investors surveyed by JLL have been able to get significant budget growth over the past two years in the space. Their No. 1 spend is on strategic advisory on technology or AI, and most report their budgets have increased solely due to AI. After that, the spending goes to upgrading both cyber- and data-security measures and infrastructure for AI integration.
Morin said what she found really surprising is that while most think companies will start using AI for simple tasks, or, low-risk, low-hanging fruit, that was not at all the case. 
“Our survey showed the opposite. We are getting to a point of sophistication, beyond this initial skeptical phase, where companies are really focusing on the competitive advantage to pressing business problems, using AI to solve instead of [just] those simple low-risk operations.” More

Chocolate prices have surged nearly 30% since last Halloween due to inflation, tariffs, and a global cocoa shortage.
Shoppers are shifting toward cheaper, trendier candies such as gummies and sour treats, with chocolate’s Halloween market share dropping from 52% to 44%, according to Circana.
Candy makers are adapting with cocoa-free options, smaller bars and expanded gummy lines to offset costs and appeal to Gen-Z tastes.

A customer shops for Halloween candy at a Walmart Supercenter on October 16, 2024 in Austin, Texas. 
Brandon Bell | Getty Images

The scariest thing haunting Halloween this year isn’t a ghost, goblin or ghoul — it’s the price of chocolate.
From Snickers to Reese’s to Twix, one of America’s favorite indulgences is getting more expensive, as tariffs, inflation and high cocoa prices squeeze profit margins and customers’ pocketbooks, possibly leading to fewer chocolate bars landing in trick-or-treat buckets this year.

Chocolate prices have surged nearly 30% since last Halloween and almost 78% in the past five years, according to data from research firm Circana and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 100-piece variety bag of candy now costs $16.39, up from $7.20 in 2020, FinanceBuzz found.
That spike is showing up on store shelves. Variety packs from Hershey — maker of Reese’s, KitKats and Heath bars — are up about 22%, while Mars, the company behind M&M’s and Milky Way, raised prices about 12%, according to the Century Foundation, a progressive, independent think tank, and the Groundwork Collaborative.
“The season did get off to a slow start,” Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner told investors on an earnings call Thursday, warning that holiday sales could be softer this year.
About 4 in 5 Americans buy candy for the Halloween holiday, according to YouGov. This time of year makes up about 18% of annual U.S. confectionery sales — second only to Christmas, according to the National Confectioners Association.
But chocolate’s dominance is slipping. Circana found it made up 52% of Halloween candy sales last year, compared with 44% this year, as shoppers shift toward cheaper, trendier sweets.

“Macroeconomic headwinds” are among the culprits, said Sally Wyatt, who works for Circana analyzing global consumer packaged goods and as a food-service industry advisor. “It’s the compounded impact on top of the fact that we’ve outpaced wage growth. So consumers have started to … [make] very specific choices on discretionary items.”
Sector-wide, candy prices are outpacing the national inflation rate, marking a roughly 10% increase compared with last year, according to the Century Foundation. Still, the National Retail Federation said 2025 is expected to be a record year for candy sales in the U.S., with about $3.9 billion spent on Halloween candy alone.
“Even as consumers face higher prices for food, they continue to leave room in their budgets for chocolate and candy, meaning that the category is strong, vibrant and growing,” Carly Schildhaus, a spokesperson for the National Confectioners Association, told CNBC.

Much of the chocolate filling U.S. shelves this fall was made from cocoa beans purchased at record prices last December, when futures peaked above $12,000 per ton, experts said. Prices have since cooled to around $6,000, but that’s still more than double the pre-pandemic average.
A cocktail of rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, drought and crop disease for the past three years has devastated harvests in West Africa, which produces roughly 70% of the world’s cocoa. The result: the largest global cocoa deficit in 60 years, with supply falling half a million tons short of demand.
Prices could stabilize, but not decrease, by next year as crop yields have increased, said David Branch, a sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
“It’s not just the cost of manufacturing cocoa and other ingredients,” Branch told CNBC. “It’s also a combination of labor, transportation, fuel, overhead [and] all of those factors, and, given the inflationary rate we’ve been in, those came up and haven’t really come down.”
Hershey said Thursday that tariff expenses will cost the company $160 million to $170 million this year. In July, it also announced a “low double-digit” price hike, though executives said those increases weren’t tied to tariffs or Halloween pricing.
Chocolate makers have lobbied the Trump administration for tariff exemptions on cocoa and other agricultural imports, arguing they have little ability to source those ingredients domestically.

Sweet variety

As chocolate becomes more expensive, fruity, sour and chewy candies have gotten more popular. More than half of shoppers said they planned to prioritize gummy candies for Halloween this year, NielsenIQ found.
On average, the price per pound of chocolate rose nearly 14% in the 12 weeks ending Oct. 5, while sales volumes fell 6%, Circana data show. Non-chocolate Halloween candy such as Jolly Ranchers and Skittles saw sales climb 8.3% in that same period.
Younger adults, especially Gen Z, are also fueling growth in non-chocolate categories — gravitating toward gummies, freeze-dried sweets and TikTok-friendly flavor mashups.
“It’s that experiential [aspect] because you can have it [non-chocolate items] with chewy, with sweet flavors, with hot and sweet, spicy flavors,” Wyatt told CNBC. “Some candies you get this big explosion in your mouth of flavors. We’ve seen it popular with different cohorts.”
Chocolate makers are responding in kind. Hershey has expanded its gummy lineup, including a partnership with Shaquille O’Neal, and rolled out ghost-shaped Twizzlers and mismatched “Trickies” Jolly Rancher gummies.
Mondelez International, maker of Cadbury and Toblerone, said it’s also prioritizing gummies in the U.S. market. CEO Dirk Van de Put said on an earnings call Tuesday, however, that the U.S. market in particular “is slower than we’ve seen in quite a while” and the company’s promotional strategy earlier this year “was not giving us the volume effect that we were hoping for.”
Manufacturers are also experimenting with smaller bars, new fillings and cocoa-free options such as crème or nut-based confections to offset rising ingredient costs, Branch said.
“Companies have got to be very aware of if they can keep their prices in line. They can’t just keep increasing their prices and expect sales to continue to go up,” Branch said. “But customers have not lost their appetite for chocolate. It’s going to remain an indulgence that people will always have and can’t really do without.” More