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    Abercrombie & Fitch shares fall after star retailer posts weak guidance for year ahead

    Abercrombie & Fitch has seen blockbuster growth over the last two years but it’s expecting that pace to moderate more than Wall Street expected in the year ahead.
    The company is forecasting fiscal 2025 sales to rise between 3% and 5%, falling short of expectations of 6.8%, according to LSEG.
    During its holiday quarter, Abercrombie narrowly beat expectations on the top and bottom lines.

    An Abercrombie & Fitch store stands in midtown Manhattan in New York City on Oct. 24, 2024.
    Spencer Platt | Getty Images

    Abercrombie & Fitch’s growth story is starting to slow down.
    The apparel retailer issued weaker-than-expected guidance for its current quarter and fiscal 2025, and said it expects its sales will grow more slowly than Wall Street anticipated.

    Abercrombie is expecting sales to rise between 3% and 5% in fiscal 2025, well below estimates of 6.8% growth, according to LSEG. During its current quarter, the company anticipates earnings per share will be between $1.25 and $1.45, short of expectations of $1.97.
    Shares fell nearly 5% in premarket trading.
    Beyond its guidance, Abercrombie narrowly beat Wall Street’s expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter. Here’s how the retailer performed compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: $3.57 vs. $3.54 expected
    Revenue: $1.58 billion vs. $1.57 billion expected

    The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 1 was $187 million, or $3.57 per share, compared with $158 million, or $2.97 per share, a year earlier. 
    Sales rose to $1.58 billion, up 9% from $1.45 billion a year earlier.

    In January, Abercrombie offered investors a glimpse into its holiday performance when it released an early set of results and raised its fourth-quarter outlook. Still, its stock tumbled that day because the forecast showed that Abercrombie was expecting its growth to moderate, and it didn’t anticipate its operating margin would improve beyond its previous forecast. 
    Following about two years of explosive stock and sales growth, Abercrombie’s business appears to be leveling out, and the markets may be turning away from retail’s biggest star in favor of names with more immediate upside. 
    The company is still growing, and working to build out its international market, but it’s unclear if it’s still going to see the blockbuster numbers it’s been putting out after implementing a turnaround under CEO Fran Horowitz. It faces tough prior-year comparisons, and some of the buzz from the turnaround might be starting to fade. 
    Plus, consumers have been noticeably cautious since the start of the year, which is always going to pressure specialty retailers that sell discretionary goods like clothes. Geopolitics, unseasonably cool weather and mass tragedies like the wildfires in Los Angeles have dampened consumer demand, but shoppers are also concerned about things like rising prices from tariffs. In February, consumer confidence slipped to its lowest levels since 2021. 
    Additionally, Abercrombie could have seen an impact from the proposed TikTok ban, which dragged on E.l.f. Beauty’s performance at the start of the year. Both of the companies rely heavily on TikTok for marketing. In February, E.l.f. CEO Tarang Amin told CNBC that he suspects the proposed ban impacted cosmetics sales because people weren’t posting things like “get ready with me” videos or clothing hauls, which can drive sales.
    In a news release in January, Horowitz signaled that moving forward, Abercrombie will be more focused on boosting profits than sales as it looks to “drive long-term shareholder value.” 
    “Following an expected two years of double-digit top and bottom-line growth, I am as confident as ever in the power of our brands and operating model as we move forward, supported by the outstanding capabilities we’ve built,” said Horowitz. “In 2025, we will look to continue sustainable, profitable growth through the execution of our playbooks to win and retain customers around the world. Our goal is to leverage our healthy margin structure and balance sheet to grow operating income dollars and earnings per share at rates faster than sales.”  More

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    China to raise defense spending by 7.2% in 2025 to ‘firmly safeguard’ national security

    China on Wednesday increased its defense spending by 7.2% this year, the same growth rate as in the prior two years, as Beijing seeks to “firmly safeguard” its national security.
    The increased defense budget, well above China’s economic growth target for this year of roughly 5%, comes as Western governments seek to ratchet up military spending to bolster their own security.
    The European Union announced Tuesday that it could mobilize as much as 800 billion euros ($841 billion) to shore up support for Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion.

    China’s navy showed off its J-15T fighter jet at the 2024 Zhuhai Air Show on Nov. 12, 2024.
    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    China on Wednesday increased its defense spending by 7.2% this year, the same growth rate as in the prior two years, as Beijing seeks to “firmly safeguard” its national security.
    In an official government report due to be released in parliament, China proposed a national defense budget of 1.78 trillion yuan ($244.99 billion) for the 2025 fiscal year.

    The increased defense budget, well above China’s economic growth target for this year of roughly 5%, comes as Western governments seek to ratchet up military spending to bolster their own security.
    The European Union announced Tuesday that it could mobilize as much as 800 billion euros ($841 billion) to shore up support for Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion. The move followed reports that the U.S. had abruptly paused military aid to Ukraine.
    China budgeted a 7.2% increase in defense spending to 1.67 trillion yuan last year, the same growth rate as in the prior year. Beijing had increased spending by 7.1% in 2022 and 6.8% in 2021, according to official data.
    When asked on Tuesday about China’s defense spending, Lou Qinjian, spokesperson for the third session of the 14th National People’s Congress, told reporters that “peace needs to be safeguarded with strength.”
    That’s according to an official translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.

    China’s defense expenditure as share of GDP has been held under 1.5% for many years, Lou said, adding that this rate of spending is lower than the global average.
    China remains the world’s second largest military spender behind the U.S. which has set the military budget for 2025 at $850 billion.
    Separately, expenditures earmarked for public security this year was raised by 7.3%, the official statement showed, a sharp increase compared with the 1.4% rise last year.
    — CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report. More

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    China targets ‘around 5%’ GDP growth in 2025 and lays out stimulus measures as trade worries mount

    China on Wednesday set its GDP growth target for 2025 at “around 5%” as it starts its annual parliamentary meeting amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S, according to a copy of the government work report seen by CNBC.
    Beijing raised its budget deficit target to “around 4%” of GDP from 3% last year.
    The 4% deficit would mark the highest on record going back to 2010, according to data accessed via Wind Information. The prior high was 3.6% in 2020, the data showed.

    An aerial view of a new city district in southern China’s Nanning city on Feb. 28, 2025.
    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    China on Wednesday set its GDP growth target for 2025 at “around 5%” and laid out stimulus measures to boost its economy amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S.
    Beijing raised its budget deficit target to “around 4%” of GDP from 3% last year, according to a copy of the government work report seen by CNBC, as the country’s top legislative body kickstarts its annual meeting.

    The 4% deficit would mark the highest on record going back to 2010, according to data accessed via Wind Information. The prior high was 3.6% in 2020, the data showed.
    The government report laid out a plan to issue 1.3 trillion yuan ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2025, 300 billion yuan more than last year. Another 500 billion yuan worth of special treasury bonds will be issued to support large state-owned commercial banks.
    The report reiterated Beijing’s plan to adopt a “more proactive” fiscal policy and “appropriately accommodative” monetary policy.
    In an implicit acknowledgement of sluggish domestic demand, Beijing also revised down its annual consumer price inflation target to “around 2%” — the lowest in more than two decades — from 3% or higher in prior years, according to the Asia Society Policy Institute.
    The new inflation goal would act more as a ceiling than a target to be realized. Consumer prices climbed just 0.2% in 2024 and 2023, while producer prices have declined for over two years.

    The country’s annual parliamentary gathering, known as the “Two Sessions,” started Tuesday with the opening ceremony of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — a top advisory body.
    The National People’s Congress kicked off its meeting Wednesday and is expected to wrap up its annual session on March 11. The foreign minister and heads of several economic departments are due to hold press conferences in the interim.

    The opening of China’s National People’s Congress coincides with U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned speech at a joint session of Congress, where Trump could share his agenda and goals for the year.
    On the issue of Taiwan, Beijing stressed it would “resolutely oppose separatist activities” aimed at the democratically governed island’s independence, while promoting a “peaceful development of cross-Strait relations.”

    Tit-for-tat tariffs

    This year’s parliamentary meetings come as Trump has imposed fresh tariffs on Chinese goods — an additional 20% in duties in just about a month.
    Beijing on Tuesday responded with additional tariffs of up to 15% on some U.S. goods from March 10, and restrictions on exports to 15 U.S. companies. China also added 10 U.S. firms to an unreliable entities list that could limit their ability to do business in the Asian country. Many of the named U.S. businesses work in aerospace, defense or with drones.
    “We hope to work with the U. S. side to address each other’s concerns through dialogue and consultation on the basis of mutual respect, equality, reciprocity, and mutual betterment,” Lou Qinjian, spokesperson for the third session of the 14th National People’s Congress, told reporters Tuesday morning.
    “At the same time, we never accept any act of pressuring or threatening, and will firmly defend our sovereignty, security, and development interests,” he said in Mandarin, via an official translation.

    Stimulus and tech

    The increased U.S. duties will weigh on China’s exports, a rare bright spot in an economy struggling with lackluster domestic demand.
    While the world’s second-largest economy grew by 5% in 2024, retail sales growth fell sharply to 3.4% from 7.1% in 2023. The real estate drag persisted, with investments in the sector dropping by 10.6% last year, from the a year earlier.
    Investors have closely watched Beijing’s efforts to address the country’s economic slowdown after an unexpected, high-level pledge of support in September prompted a stock rally. Market gains picked up again after Chinese President Xi Jinping held a rare meeting last month with entrepreneurs including Alibaba’s Jack Ma and artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng.
    “There is no denying that AI technologies are accompanied by some unknown risks and challenges and will bring new tasks in areas like security, social governance, morality, and ethics. … It will inevitably have an impact on production,” Lou said.
    “China … is opposed to over-stretching the concept of national security or politicizing economic and technological issues,” he said.
    Investors will also be closely watching the parliamentary meetings for further comments on artificial intelligence and China’s efforts to provide regulatory certainty for the private sector.
    — CNBC’s Bernice Ooi contributed to this report. More

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    China boosts budget deficit target to ‘around 4%’ of gross domestic product in a rare move

    The new deficit plan, which is up from 3% last year, comes amid an escalating trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
    An increase to 4% of GDP had been widely expected. It marks the highest fiscal deficit on record going back to 2010, according to data accessed via Wind Information. The prior high was 3.6% in 2020, the data showed.

    Pictured here is a residential complex under construction in Hangzhou, China, on Dec. 16, 2024.
    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    BEIJING — China on Wednesday announced plans to raise its fiscal deficit to “around 4%” of gross domestic product, a rare increase that marks a meaningful shift in policy.
    The target was confirmed in an official government report for review in parliament on Wednesday.

    The new deficit plan, which is up from 3% last year, comes amid an escalating trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
    An increase to 4% of GDP had been widely expected. It marks the highest fiscal deficit on record going back to 2010, according to data accessed via Wind Information. The prior high was 3.6% in 2020, the data showed.
    In October, Chinese Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an said the space for a deficit increase is “rather large.”
    China in November had announced a support package of 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) over five years — primarily to tackle local government debt problems.
    The country’s real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments, many of which struggled financially even before needing to spend on Covid-19 measures. Meanwhile, lackluster consumption and slow growth overall have multiplied calls for more fiscal stimulus.
    China was also expected to triple the quota for special sovereign bond sales to 3 trillion yuan ($410 billion) this year, from 1 trillion yuan in 2024, and increase the year’s quota for special local government bond issuance to 4.5 trillion yuan from 3.9 trillion yuan previously, according to estimates from Macquarie’s Chief China Economist Larry Hu. More

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    Trump’s Mexico tariffs could raise produce prices in the next few days, Target CEO says

    Consumers will likely see higher produce prices in the coming days due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexican goods, Target CEO Brian Cornell said.
    Prices for strawberries, avocados and bananas could rise, Cornell said, after the 25% duties on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect Tuesday.
    Cornell made the comments in a CNBC interview after Target posted fourth-quarter earnings.

    Shoppers will likely see produce prices increase in the coming days due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexican imports, Target CEO Brian Cornell said Tuesday.
    The Trump administration’s 25% levies on goods from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports, took effect Tuesday.

    Cornell said Target relies heavily on Mexican produce during the winter months, and the tariffs could force the company to raise prices on fruits and vegetables as soon as this week.
    “Those are categories where we’ll try to protect pricing, but the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days,” he told CNBC in an interview after Target released its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings.
    “If there’s a 25% tariff, those prices will go up,” Cornell added.
    Cornell said prices could rise for produce like strawberries, avocados and bananas.

    Read more CNBC tariffs coverage

    During an investor day later that morning, Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez said it was too early to provide more specifics on the products and categories that will see price increases because “teams are working through it in real time” and the company has to look at pricing holistically.

    “I’ll give you an example. We have $3 Christmas ornaments. We don’t want to have $3.60 Christmas ornaments. We want to keep them at $3. That means we have to think about margin elsewhere. So maybe we’ll take pricing up a little bit on stockings to cover where we are in Christmas ornaments,” said Gomez.
    Another example he cited was Target’s “$5 tees.” The company wants to continue charging $5 flat for T-shirts. So while it may leave that price unchanged, it has more flexibility to hike prices for other products, such as dresses.
    “So maybe we’ll look at dresses a little bit differently,” said Gomez. “So it’s actually not as simple as just like flowing through cost. We have to think about this from a consumer perspective and make sure that our pricing architecture makes sense and puts us in a place where we are competitive and we have affordable options.”

    Target Corp. CEO, Brian Cornell speaks during an interview on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange November 28, 2014.
    Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

    While inflation has eased in recent months, price increases have not moderated as much as the Federal Reserve has hoped. High costs for food and housing have continued to stretch consumer budgets, and Trump’s tariffs have raised fears that households will face even higher expenses. The president and his advisors have contended the duties will not raise prices for consumers.
    When asked if he had spoken to Trump directly about the impact tariffs will have on prices, Cornell told CNBC he has “not had that conversation” with the president and instead has relied on the retail industry’s lobbying arm to speak on Target’s behalf.
    “We’ve certainly been very active in Washington making sure that we provide our point of view, and we rely on [the National Retail Federation] and the industry to provide our perspective to a broad number of members of the administration,” said Cornell. “So we worked very closely with [the NRF and the Retail Industry Leaders Association] to make sure that collectively, our voice is being heard and we can share some of our insights and potential implications.”
    When asked about China, Cornell downplayed concerns about how the cumulative 20% duties on goods from the region will affect shoppers. Cornell said Target has reduced its reliance on China to about 30% of imports from more than 60%. It’s on pace to get that number down to below 25% by the end of the next year, added Gomez.
    The company has been able to reduce its reliance on China by turning to emerging manufacturing markets in the Western Hemisphere. Currently, only 17% of Target’s apparel — a key high-margin category for the company — is manufactured in China after production was shifted to countries like Guatemala and Honduras, said Gomez. That shift in supply chain is key to getting products to customers faster and also doesn’t come with the same raw material concerns associating with sourcing cotton in China.
    Cornell’s comments come after Target posted fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street’s expectations but cast a pall over the current quarter. The company said it’s bracing for a weak current quarter in part because of how tariff concerns are impacting shopping, along with sliding consumer confidence, which dropped in February to its lowest level since 2021.
    Target’s guidance is the latest warning sign about the health of the economy, as it joined other retailers like Walmart, E.l.f. Beauty and Home Depot in giving weaker-than-expected first-quarter or full-year guidance.

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    CFPB drops lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo over Zelle fraud

    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Tuesday dismissed its lawsuit against the operator of the Zelle payments network and the three U.S. banks that dominate transactions on it.
    The CFPB sued Early Warning Services, which runs the peer-to-peer payments network, as well as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo in December, alleging that the firms failed to properly investigate fraud complaints or give victims reimbursement.
    The CFPB “dismisses this action against Defendants Early Warning Services, LLC, Bank of America, N.A., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., with prejudice,” the regulator said.

    FILE PHOTO: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Acting Director Russell Vought testifies before House Budget Committee on 2020 Budget on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 12, 2019. 
    Yuri Gripas | Reuters

    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Tuesday dismissed its lawsuit against the operator of the Zelle payments network and the three U.S. banks that dominate transactions on it.
    The CFPB sued Early Warning Services, which runs the peer-to-peer payments network, as well as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo in December, alleging that the firms failed to properly investigate fraud complaints or give victims reimbursement.

    The CFPB “dismisses this action against Defendants Early Warning Services, LLC, Bank of America, N.A., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., with prejudice,” the regulator said in its filing.
    Since acting Director Russell Vought has taken over the CFPB, the agency has dropped at least a half dozen cases brought by his predecessor, Rohit Chopra. The agency is now embroiled in a legal battle after a union representing CFPB employees sued to halt mass firings and the purging of data that would’ve happened under Vought and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
    The CFPB said customers of the three banks have lost more than $870 million since the launch of Zelle in 2017. The service was started to provide bank customers an alternative to peer-to-peer platforms including PayPal. Last year Zelle crossed $1 trillion in total volume, which it said was the most ever for a peer-to-peer platform.
    Since the recent cases were dismissed with prejudice, the CFPB has agreed to never bring these claims again, shutting off the possibility of clawing back funds for consumer relief, former head of enforcement Eric Halperin told CNBC last week.
    A spokeswoman for the Zelle brand said they welcomed the dismissal and reiterated an assertion that the CFPB lawsuit was “legally and factually flawed.”

    A JPMorgan spokeswoman said that while “banks play a crucial role in scam prevention and consumer education…. this is a national security problem that requires a collective effort across the public and private sectors.”
    “Banks have consistently followed the law in offering services through Zelle,” Lindsey Johnson, president of the Consumer Bankers Association, said in a statement after the dismissal. “In a time when fraud and scam activity is surging … we look forward to moving past finger-pointing and political grandstanding and instead working constructively with policymakers to counter the root causes of these threats.”

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    Airline stocks fall as possible economic ‘soft patch’ raises demand concerns

    U.S. airline stocks tumbled to their lowest levels since late 2024.
    Consumer spending fell in January for the first time in almost two years, according to recent Commerce Department data.

    United airplanes are seen at the Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, Unitted States on July 16, 2024. 
    Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    U.S. airline stocks tumbled Tuesday to their lowest levels since late last year after data showed some economic concerns, hitting what had been a bright spot for consumer spending.
    The moves also come after President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on Mexico and Canada and raised tariffs on Chinese goods, actions that were met with plans for retaliatory duties. Some executives, including the heads of Best Buy and Target, warned the tariffs could mean higher prices for consumers.

    United Airlines, which has the most exposure to China of the U.S. airlines, fell about 6%, along with Delta Air Lines. American Airlines dropped close to 4% for the day, while domestic-focused carriers JetBlue Airways lost nearly 6%, Allegiant Air shed more than 9%, and ultra-low-cost carrier Frontier Airlines ended more than 4% lower.

    Stock chart icon

    NYSE Arca Airline Index versus the S&P 500

    Airlines, especially full-service carriers with big international networks, had been a bright spot thanks to strong demand and moderating domestic flight growth, but some analysts are now anticipating potential demand impacts, particularly for more price-sensitive customers ahead of the crucial spring travel season.
    U.S. consumer spending fell in January for the first time in almost two years, the U.S. Commerce Department said last week. Earlier in February, its retail sales report from a month earlier showed a bigger-than-expected drop.

    Read more CNBC airline news

    “While we continue to remain constructive on the supply backdrop – which we still believe is favorable – our attention has shifted to what appears to be an emerging economic ‘soft patch,'” Deutsche Bank said in a note Tuesday. “To what extent and duration are not clear at the present, however, we do think it will likely weigh on demand for air travel, particularly the domestic discretionary segment.”
    The bank said it has not seen any signs of weakness in corporate or long-haul international travel.

    “Business is really robust,” United Airlines CFO Mike Leskinen said at a Barclays industry conference last month. “International leisure is very strong. Domestic leisure is kind of OK. It’s fine. It’s what we expected.”
    Leskinen said that government travel, which accounts for about 2% of United’s revenue has “fallen off” after government layoffs and other cost-cutting measures since Trump took office.
    Delta “saw softness” in domestic demand last month because of slower government travel, bad weather and in the wake of the deadly American Airlines regional jet collision in January, as well as Delta’s crash landing in Toronto last month, in which all survived, Raymond James said in a note on Tuesday.
    The carrier’s spring break bookings were strong, however, as was near-term international demand, particularly for U.S.-Europe trips, Raymond James said following meetings with a Delta’s head of network planning and revenue.

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    Trump’s tariffs could quickly cut North American auto production by a third

    A third of vehicle production in North America could be cut by next week as a result of President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
    That lost production would equate to roughly 20,000 units per day, according to a new analysis from data and forecasting firm S&P Global Mobility.
    Shares of automotive stocks were notably down more than the broader market Tuesday as a result of the tariffs.

    Autoworkers at Nissan’s Smyrna Vehicle Assembly Plant in Tennessee, June 6, 2022. The plant employs more than 7,000 people and produces a variety of vehicles, including the Leaf EV and Rogue crossover.
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    DETROIT — Roughly a third of vehicle production in North America could be cut by next week as a result of President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as automakers attempt to mitigate increased costs and buyers hold off on purchasing new cars and trucks.
    That lost production would equate to roughly 20,000 units per day, according to a new analysis from prominent data and forecasting firm S&P Global Mobility.

    The production impact as well as possibility of layoffs would continue to grow if the tariffs, which Trump implemented Tuesday, are not changed or lifted.
    “We have a new dawn, to a degree. This is a significant move,” Stephanie Brinley, associate director in AutoIntelligence at S&P Global Mobility, said during a webinar with the Automotive Press Association.
    S&P Global Mobility reports 25 automakers on average produce 63,900 light-duty passenger vehicles in North America per day. A majority of those, roughly 65%, are assembled in the U.S., followed by 27% in Mexico and 8% in Canada.

    President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office on Feb. 25, 2025. Trump directed the Commerce Department to open an investigation into potential tariffs for copper imports. 
    Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    The affected production will vary by automaker, vehicle and plant location. It could mean a plant is completely idled or that it produces fewer vehicles that rely on parts that cross borders multiple times in different forms before being installed in a vehicle.
    “I think we’re going to see some plants drop shifts. We’re going to see some plants just slow build rates,” Brinley said. “It won’t be necessarily consistent across [automakers]. It’s going to very much be about what they need and how much they need it.”

    Shares of automotive stocks fell more than the broader market Tuesday as a result of the tariffs.

    Stock chart icon

    GM, Ford and Stellantis stocks

    A tariff is a tax on imports, or foreign goods, brought into the United States. The companies importing the goods pay the tariffs, and some experts fear the companies would simply pass any additional costs on to consumers — raising the cost of vehicles and potentially reducing demand.
    Several automakers this week declined to comment directly on the 25% tariffs, relying on past comments or trade associations to speak on their behalf.
    The American Automotive Policy Council, which represents Ford Motor, General Motors and Stellantis — all of which are heavily affected by the tariffs — argues that vehicles and parts that meet the stringent domestic and regional content requirements of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, should be exempt from the tariff increase.
    “Our American automakers, who invested billions in the U.S. to meet these requirements, should not have their competitiveness undermined by tariffs that will raise the cost of building vehicles in the United States and stymie investment in the American workforce, while our competitors from outside of North America benefit from easy access to our home market,” said former Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt, president of AAPC, in a statement Monday night.
    The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing the vast majority of automakers selling vehicles in the U.S., warned that no automakers will come out unscathed, resulting in increased consumer costs.
    “This isn’t hypothetical,” the trade group’s CEO, John Bozzella, said in a statement. “All automakers will be impacted by these tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Most anticipate the price of some vehicle models will increase — by as much as 25 percent — and the negative impact on vehicle price and vehicle availability will be felt almost immediately.”
    Nissan Motor late Monday said, “Sustained tariffs of this magnitude will have a negative impact for automotive manufacturers, and we are evaluating how we will take action accordingly. We remain hopeful that the sides can come to an agreement for a productive path forward.”
    Several automotive executives and Wall Street analysts have described the tariffs as inserting unneeded chaos into the automotive industry.
    “President Trump has talked a lot about making our U.S. auto industry stronger, bringing more production here, more innovation in the U.S., and if his administration can achieve that, it would be one of … the most signature accomplishments,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said in February during the Wolfe Research investor conference. “So far what we’re seeing is a lot of cost and a lot of chaos.”
    Supporters of the tariffs have argued they are a way to help level trade disparities with the countries, while potentially serving as a leverage to renegotiate USMCA, which Trump originally negotiated during his first term as president.
    Automakers have been relatively quiet about the financial impacts they expect from such tariffs, however GM CEO Mary Barra in February said the automaker believes it could mitigate short-term impacts of between 30% and 50% of additional costs “without deploying any capital.”
    It’s difficult to calculate the total impact such tariffs will have on North American vehicle production.
    “It’s one of the most fluid situations that the auto industry has ever really seen … on top of a few years of unexpected Covid situations, supply situations,” Brinley said. “The industry itself has developed to be a little bit more agile than maybe it was seven or eight years ago … but a lot of it is still very uncertain.”

    The automotive industry is a complex global system that thrives on certainty. S&P Global Mobility reports there are on average 20,000 parts in a vehicle when it’s torn down to its nuts and bolts. Parts may originate in anywhere from 50 to 120 countries.
    For example, the Ford F-150 is exclusively assembled in the U.S. but has roughly 2,700 main billable parts, which exclude many small pieces, according to Caresoft, an engineering benchmarking and consulting firm.
    Those parts come from at least 24 different countries, according to Caresoft. More