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    Bessent lists five finalists for Fed chair job, and Trump says decision coming before the end of the year

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the list of candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been winnowed down to five.
    President Donald Trump told reporters that he anticipates naming a replacement by the end of the year. Powell’s term doesn’t expire until May.

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters at the White House in Washington, D.C., Oct. 22, 2025.
    Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday confirmed that the list of candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been winnowed down to five, and President Donald Trump said the replacement is likely to be named by the end of the year.
    Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Bessent said the finalists are current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, according to several media outlets.

    Those names were reported earlier this month by CNBC.
    Bessent, who had been rumored to be a top candidate as well, said he has been conducting interviews and that he expects to do one more round before presenting a “good slate” to Trump after the Thanksgiving holiday.
    Trump, also speaking to reporters Monday on Air Force One, said he anticipates naming a replacement by the end of the year. Powell’s term doesn’t expire until May. Powell then can either step down from the Fed entirely or continue serving a term as governor that lasts until 2028.
    The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week, with an interest rate decision due Wednesday. Markets are pricing in a near certainty that the committee will lower its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, which would follow a similar cut in September.
    Trump has three appointees on the seven-member board of governors: Waller and Bowman, as well as Stephen Miran, who is filling an unexpired term that ends in January. Miran, who was confirmed in September as the head of the Council of Economic Advisers, is not expected to be reappointed. He has campaigned for the FOMC to be more aggressive in easing.
    Should Powell opt to leave the Fed, that would give Trump four appointees. Trump thus far has been unsuccessful in trying to remove Governor Lisa Cook from the board. A rotating cast of five regional presidents joins the governors as voters during the FOMC meeting. More

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    Lululemon is partnering with the NFL to release apparel for all 32 teams

    Lululemon is partnering with the NFL and Fanatics around a new collection, releasing apparel and accessories with logos of all 32 teams.
    It’s the latest push into sports for Lululemon, which includes NHL team-branded merchandise and deals with athletes like F1 champion Lewis Hamilton and tennis player Frances Tiafoe.
    It also furthers the NFL’s massive merchandise reach.

    Sign at the entrance to the Lululemon store in Midtown Manhattan.
    Erik Mcgregor | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Lululemon is partnering with the NFL to launch an apparel collection for all 32 NFL teams. It will mark the first time the retailer has offered officially licensed products for the NFL or any of its franchises.
    The collection, set to launch Tuesday, will include both men’s and women’s apparel and accessories with NFL team marks, including some of Lululemon’s most notable products such as its Steady State men’s franchise and women’s styles from Define, Scuba and Align.

    Shares of Lululemon rose 5% in premarket trading Monday.
    Lululemon, long known for its roots in yoga wear, has made a notable push into sports and performance in recent years. The retailer struck a partnership with the NHL last year to release team-branded items and has grown its roster of sports-linked ambassadors to include PGA golfers Min Woo Lee and Max Homa, ATP tennis pro Frances Tiafoe, NFL player DK Metcalf and NHL player Connor Bedard. Earlier this year, the retailer made perhaps its biggest splash to date, naming F1 champion Lewis Hamilton as an ambassador.
    Celeste Burgoyne, president of Lululemon’s Americas division and global guest innovation, said the retailer sees an opportunity within sports where it can provide “the best product for these fans in the premium space to be able to celebrate their teams.”
    “It really is about enabling our existing guests to be able to now wear Lululemon in arenas and stadiums, but it’s also about a new guest and expanding and really connecting our worlds in order to grow our guest base,” she said.
    Lululemon has struggled in recent quarters as the company has been hit hard by the impacts of tariffs and other shifting consumer trends. But CEO Calvin McDonald, speaking on CNBC last month, said he sees an opportunity to innovate within the company’s key categories and items.

    For the NFL, partnering with Lululemon on a new collection is another opportunity to broaden its reach for team gear, according to NFL CRO Renie Anderson.
    “We want to make sure we’re creating a variety, an assortment for all fans, from casual to the more classic styles,” Anderson said. “It’s all a part of that ecosystem of passion and love for the sport and your club, and the ability to express yourself that way, whether it’s fun ways with foam fingers or hats, or in a cool, casual, fashionable way.”
    The new items will be available on the league’s e-commerce site and at team retail locations as well as via Fanatics, which has a longstanding partnership with the NFL and holds the league’s consumer product licensing rights around fan gear.
    Andrew Low Ah Kee, CEO of Fanatics Commerce, said historically, the sports industry has often overserved fans in certain casual product categories like T-shirts and hoodies, but there is now “a real demand and appetite for truly premium.”
    “The jersey is truly the uniform of sport,” Low Ah Kee said. “So when we think about a consumer’s closet, we think there’s a role for jerseys, but we think there’s a role for a lot of other apparel as well.” More

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    HSBC to recognize $1.1 billion provision in third quarter after court ruling in Madoff case

    HSBC said on Monday that it will recognize a provision of $1.1 billion in its third quarter results.
    A Luxembourg court denied HSBC’s appeal in respect of Herald’s securities restitution claim.

    A view of the logo of HSBC bank on a wall outside a branch in Mexico City, Mexico, on June 14, 2024.
    Henry Romero | Reuters

    HSBC said on Monday that it will recognize a provision of $1.1 billion in its third quarter results following a court ruling in Luxembourg related to the Bernard Madoff investment fraud case.
    Herald Fund SPC sued HSBC’s Luxembourg unit in 2009, claiming restitution of securities and cash it said were lost in the fraud.

    The court denied HSBC unit’s appeal in respect of Herald’s securities restitution claim, but accepted the unit’s appeal in respect of the cash restitution claim.
    The bank will now pursue a second appeal before the Luxembourg Court of Appeal, and added that if unsuccessful, it would contest the amount to be paid in subsequent proceedings.
    Madoff was described as the mastermind of the largest investment fraud in U.S., defrauding clients of as much as $65 billion. He pleaded guilty in 2009 to a scheme that started in the early 1970s, ripping off more than 40,000 people in 125 countries over four decades, before being caught on Dec. 11, 2008.
    Madoff’s victims included director Steven Spielberg and actor Kevin Bacon, besides scores of ordinary investors. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison, and passed away in 2021.
    In its interim report for 2025 released in July, HSBC said Herald had claimed a restitution of securities and cash of $2.5 billion plus interest, or damages of $5.6 billion plus interest from HSBC.

    HSBC, Europe’s largest lender, said that various non-U.S. HSBC companies provided custodial, administration and similar services to a number of funds whose assets were invested with Bernard Madoff Investment Securities.
    The news comes a day before HSBC is due to announce its results, with the bank saying that the $1.1 billion provision will impact its Common Equity Tier 1, or CET1, ratio by about 15 basis points. The CET1 ratio is a measure of a bank’s financial strength, and is used to determine its ability to withstand distress.
    Estimates from analysts compiled by the bank on Oct. 17 had forecast CET1 ratio for the third quarter to come in at 128.9, compared to 128.2 in the second quarter.
    HSBC, which said that the final financial impact could be “significantly different,” given the pending appeals, is currently undergoing a restructuring under CEO Georges Elhedery, and will see the bank split its operations into four divisions.
    The bank has said the reorganization will cut costs by about $300 million this year, creating separate “Eastern markets” and “Western markets” sectors.
    — CNBC’s Marty Steinberg and Scott Cohn contributed to this report. More

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    China’s secret stockpiles have been a great success—so far

    Seen from the skies, China’s Dongjiakou oil storage looks like a tray of god-sized cake tins. As fuel fills up the tanks, their floating roofs rise, turning the containers into panettone-shaped domes. And lately the bakers have been busy. Some 10m barrels of crude have been added since early December, taking the total to 24m. The state-owned facility—the largest of its kind on the Chinese coast—is barely two years old. It is already 56% full. More

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    The counterintuitive economics of smoking

    ONE HUNDRED dollars invested in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index in January 2024 would now be worth $160. If you had bought American tobacco companies, you would now have even more: some $165. The share-price boom in part reflects a strange economic phenomenon. In recent years, the operating margin on a cigarette sold in America has grown from about 50% to about 60%. This year cigarette- and cigar-makers are expected to make $22bn of operating profit in the world’s largest economy. More

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    American Airlines is arriving late to the luxury travel boom. Can it catch up?

    American Airlines has fallen behind large rivals Delta and United in seeking out luxury customers, profit and more.
    The carrier is trying to change all of that and uplift its brand with improvements to its cabins, lounges and technology.
    CEO Robert Isom will have to rally American’s more than 130,000 employees behind the airline’s plans and win over both customers and investors.

    An American Airlines Airbus A321 taxis at San Diego International Airport as a United Airlines airplane departs on August 24, 2024 in San Diego, California.
    Kevin Carter | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    FORT WORTH, Texas — American Airlines started pouring customers Champagne Bollinger in its top-tier lounges and cabins this fall. But at headquarters, it’s not time to celebrate — yet.
    American has fallen behind large rivals Delta Air Lines and United Airlines in the post-Covid luxury travel boom that has taken Seoul spa vacations and 40th birthday bashes abroad out of the chat and armed millions of consumers with high-end rewards credit cards.

    In the first nine months of this year, Delta made $3.8 billion and United made $2.3 billion. American made $12 million. That means that American, which offers more flights than any other airline, according to OAG, accounted for just 2% of the profit the biggest three U.S. carriers generated so far in 2025.
    American ranked last in a J.D. Power’s North American airline customer satisfaction ranking this year. The carrier has also been working to undo damage from a failed business-travel sales strategy.
    And American, which branded itself the “on-time machine” in the 1980s, in the first half of this year ranked ninth out of 10 airlines for on-time arrivals, according to the Department of Transportation.
    The airline is trying to change all of that and uplift its brand after strategy errors, some skittishness about spending, and at times being late to capitalize on industry trends, like travelers’ willingness to pay up to sit in bigger seats, according to current and former executives and industry watchers.
    To make that happen, CEO Robert Isom will have to rally American’s more than 130,000 employees around the airline’s plans and win over both customers and investors. American’s stock is down 20% this year through Friday’s close, compared with modest gains posted by Delta and United.

    Last week, however, some investors noticed a change within American, whose fourth-quarter profit forecast surpassed Wall Street analysts’ expectations. Shares rose more than 16%, their biggest weekly percentage gain in almost a year.
    “You’re going to have a three-month period where you have to be crystal clear on your story,” said Melius Research airline analyst Conor Cunningham, referring to the airline’s leaders.
    The bigger changes are going to take time and money.
    “American hasn’t been paying attention to the customer for the longest time,” said Henry Harteveldt, founder of the Atmosphere Research Group travel consulting firm. “I believe there is the beginning of a meaningful turnaround … but a large airline like American is not going to be turned around overnight.”

    ‘Everyone felt it was price and schedule, and that’s it’

    American has tasked Heather Garboden — who has worked for more than two decades at American and US Airways, including roles in the cargo and finance departments, and now is chief customer officer — with leading a lot of a nose-to-tail revamp of the nearly century-old airline.
    “Fifteen years ago, I don’t think in the industry, there was much of a belief that customer experience … really drove a differentiation between airlines. I think everyone felt it was price and schedule, and that’s it,” she said in an interview. “That has changed, and we understand that.”
    American fell behind with both retailing fares and technology compared with large U.S. rivals. At Delta, the most profitable U.S. airline, its executives were early to notice how customers were paying up for pricier first-class seats, precious real estate it and other airlines used to give away to frequent flyers as free upgrades. Now, offering buy-ups is more common among all three, and American is looking for more ways to sell those seats and to make sure its planes have enough of them to offer.
    One challenge for American has been that it was last of the big three airlines to complete a mega merger in 2013 when it combined with US Airways, while Delta and United had years-long head starts to get through their integrations and improve their products.

    New lounges, coffee and suites

    Garboden spent much of her career in the finance departments and said it’s tough to provide that team with the return-on-investment of something like Champagne but that it’s still important.
    “Customer experience, it’s not just Champagne. It’s not just a nice seat. It’s not just having the best lounge,” she said. “It’s the whole holistic view of it, and from end to end, [how] we want it to feel.”
    Including new aircraft, American expects its capital spending to total $3.8 billion this year, and rise to about $4.5 billion next year, the carrier said Thursday. It said it has nearly $37 billion in total debt, and plans to cut that down by about at least $2 billion before 2028.
    One example of how things have changed: American’s management team nearly a decade ago decided to remove seat-back screens from its aircraft, saving money on the equipment (and the fuel-sucking weight they add to the plane) because at the time they said customers would likely use their own mobile phones, tablets or laptop to watch entertainment.
    United, some of whose senior leadership team, including its chief executive, Scott Kirby, came from American, has done the opposite and is in the process of adding thousands of screens to narrow-body planes both new and old, including Bluetooth technology for wireless headphones.
    American might be changing its tune. “I think of where the technology was a decade ago, and where it can be today, or even a few years from today,” Garboden said. “Hopefully the complexity is less.”

    An seatback on an American Airlines Boeing 737.
    Leslie Josephs/CNBC

    American is working to make its website and app better, with features like a way to toggle between paying for tickets with cash or miles, Garboden said, among other revamps that executives hope will drive sales — and paid upgrades. Another goal: using artificial intelligence and allowing customers to search for vacation themes, such as “best wine tasting in spring” instead of searching for flights between cities, she said.
    American is also in the middle of a push to refresh many of its longer-haul premium cabins and announced on Thursday that it will refurbish its Boeing 777-200 aircraft with a new business class, adding to an upgrade, first unveiled three years ago, of its larger Boeing 777-300 jets.
    “That is a big deal for us because extending the lives of those and putting those into service really gives us a capital spending holiday in terms of fleet replacement,” Isom said in an earnings call with analysts on Thursday. “So it’s a win-win-win for our customers, for our company and, most certainly, our investors.”
    Those plans are made years in advance, and high demand, supply chain problems and long certification wait times have delayed plusher cabins, exasperating airline executives.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    On Thursday, American’s first Airbus A321 XLR, a long-range narrow-body plane it plans to fly across the country and, eventually to Europe, touched down at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport. On all three aircraft types, it will do without first class in favor of a larger business class. For flights over the Atlantic it can cost $600 in the back and well over $6,000 up front.
    The new suites that feature sliding doors, larger screens and a palette of dark browns, navy blue and tan, started flying this year on some of American’s Boeing 787 Dreamliners, subset P, for “premium.”

    American Airlines new business-class suite.
    American Airlines

    Meanwhile, the union that represents American’s attendants is pushing the carrier add more crew members on board to cater to the larger business-class cabins.
    “Staff your airplanes the way a world-class airline should — and deliver a competitive onboard experience in every cabin,” the Association of Professional Flight Attendants, the pilots’ union and unions at the carrier said in a message on Friday that was sent to staff but directed at the carrier, targeting the airline’s underperformance compared with rivals.
    American’s updates even have it rethinking beverages throughout the plane. The airline signed a coffee provider deal with Italy’s Lavazza recently, and to test out the brews, it brought airplane water to its headquarters in Fort Worth so staff could evaluate what it would taste like brewed on board. Lavazza made the cut.

    The airline on Thursday named Nat Pieper as is chief commercial officer, a nearly three-decade airline veteran who’s worked at Alaska Airlines and Delta and who Isom described as “exactly the kind of leader we want at American.” American fired its former CCO, Vasu Raja, last year after his business-travel strategy backfired and sparked outrage from travel agencies.
    There are signs of progress.
    “Exiting this year, we expect to have fully recovered the revenue share that was lost by our prior sales and distribution strategy,” Isom said Thursday.
    American also just inked a new credit card deal with Citi and last week said it would introduce a new mid-tier card, with a $350 annual fee.

    One-time pioneer, new challenges

    American Airlines was an industry leader for decades. It was the first to launch a frequent flyer program, AAdvantage. Loyalty programs, which in large part make money from selling frequent flyer miles to banks, have now become the lifeblood of many airlines.
    The airline this year announced new measures to improve reliability. One change: five additional minutes of boarding time. An American spokeswoman said that helps avoid bottlenecks and last-minute gate-checked bags, which she said are down 25% since May 1.

    Some of American’s challenges are fairly recent. A federal judge in 2023 blocked American’s regional tie-up with JetBlue Airways, leaving it without a partner in key, wealthy markets like Boston and New York, where United and Delta had made inroads.
    United this year scooped up a partnership with JetBlue that allows customers to earn and burn miles on each others airline, but stops short of coordinating schedules or routes. It took effect on Thursday, as American was reporting its third-quarter results.
    American dominates its fortress hubs in Dallas and Charlotte, North Carolina, profitable operations, though it has fallen behind in the Northeast. Other companies have looked to the Sun Belt for growth as the population there grew.
    United and Delta executives have credited some of their success to having lots of flights in big coastal hubs with affluent travelers, though United has also built up flying in key markets like Denver, Houston and Chicago.

    ‘Generational lead’

    An American Airlines Airbus A321-231 airplane taxis to depart from San Diego International Airport to Dallas at sunset on November 22, 2024 in San Diego, California.
    Kevin Carter | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    While American has been reluctant to make big investments, United’s CEO Kirby earlier this month told investors that the airline is plowing more than $1 billion a year into improving customer experience.
    United recently started flying planes with free Wi-Fi provided by SpaceX’s Starlink, following Delta and JetBlue in making the service complimentary. American plans to roll out complimentary Wi-Fi next year for most of its fleet.
    United said such investments take years.
    “We have built up a generational lead on this front,” United’s chief commercial officer, Andrew Nocella, said in an interview, adding that new products are coming in the next few years. (He declined to provide details.) “We think it’s substantial, and I don’t want to give an inch of that ground up, no matter what our competitors do to innovate over the next decade.”
    Some customers, however, continue to value the convenience American offers them, and have remained loyal.
    Todd Bryan, 41, who has Executive Platinum status on American, said he chooses the carrier in large part because it has the most frequencies out of where he lives, in Fayetteville, Arkansas.
    The 41-year-old sales account manager who works in the consumer packaged goods industry, said he gets upgraded on most of his flights, but he has noticed that American has been more aggressive about offering buy-ups with cash or miles.
    Even though he’s usually at the top of the list, he now considers taking the offer instead of gambling on a free upgrade on personal trips if “it feels cheap enough that I assume someone else would buy it too.” More

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    ‘VOO and chill:’ Why this popular investment strategy may be losing its appeal — even with stocks at all-time highs

    Passive investing through exchange-traded funds may be losing its appeal.
    Tidal Financial Group Chief Revenue Officer Gavin Filmore finds many of his clients are no longer satisfied with buying popular ETFs tied to market indexes.

     “I think investors are looking beyond just the let’s call it the ‘VOO and chill approach’ where you just buy the index in an ETF, which is a great approach but they’re looking for diversification,” Filmore told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.” “And they’re not finding it within the product or within the index, so they have to look beyond that.” 
    Filmore refers to the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which tracks the S&P 500’s performance. Both are up almost 16% so far this year.

    ‘Imbalance is the perfect word’

    Meanwhile, Strategas Securities’ Todd Sohn contends investors are losing diversification by using the S&P 500 as a benchmark.
    “Imbalance is the perfect word,” said the firm’s senior ETF & technical strategist in the same interview. He added technology now accounts for more than 35% of the index, a record high.
    Meanwhile, defensive sectors including consumer staples, health care, energy and utilities are at an all-time low weight of 19% in the S&P 500, according to FactSet.

    So, where are traders turning? Sohn is seeing renewed interest in small-cap stocks.
    The Russell 2000, which tracks the group, hit an all-time high on Wednesday and just saw its best week since August. It’s now up more than 28% over the past six months — outperforming the S&P 500. Earlier this month, the Russell 2000 topped 2,500 for the first time ever.
    “I wonder if you’re seeing this broadening happen outside the large cap space where investors are comfortable with their tech and AI exposure and seeking other routes,” Sohn said.
    While there is a growing chorus of voices throwing support behind the small caps, the heavy hitters will take center stage on Wall Street next week. That’s when five of the seven so-called “Magnificent 7” — Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon — are due to report their latest earnings.

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    Inside Wealth: One in three Manhattan condo owners lost money when they sold in the last year

    One in three condo resales between July 2024 and June 2025 were sold at a loss, according to a report from Brown Harris Stevens.
    Manhattan is still among the most expensive markets in the country, especially on a per-square-foot basis.
    The exception to the trend was the top of the market. Those who bought and sold apartments for $10 million or more made double-digit profits.

    A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
    More than a third of the condo apartments sold in Manhattan over roughly the past year sold at a loss, although the top end of the market fared better, according to a new report.

    Despite the steady stream of headlines about eye-popping sales and soaring prices in Manhattan real estate, the median price per square foot for Manhattan condos is essentially flat from a decade ago, according to a report from Brown Harris Stevens. One in three condo resales between July 2024 and June 2025 were sold at a loss, according to the report. When including inflation, transaction costs and renovations, the share of losses by condo sellers is likely even higher, according to real estate analysts.
    While the data didn’t include co-ops, analysts say co-op prices have generally fared the same or slightly worse than condos.
    “For the last decade, Manhattan has essentially been moving sideways,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and real estate research firm.
    The long-term price weakness in Manhattan stands in stark contrast to much of the country, where home prices are up substantially since the pandemic, creating a widespread affordability crisis. Only 2% of home sellers nationally who purchased homes before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss, according to Redfin.

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    Manhattan is still among the most expensive markets in the country, especially on a per-square-foot basis. The median price for Manhattan sales in the third quarter was $1.2 million, while the average is just under $2 million, according to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Yet over the longer term, an analysis of resales finds that the timing of purchases in Manhattan typically matters more than location.

    Condo owners who bought before 2010 have fared the best. The median gains for those in that cohort who sold over roughly the past year were between 29% and 45%, according to the Brown Harris report. Prices started to rise after the financial crisis, peaking in 2016. That means for those who bought between 2011 and 2015, the sale gains in the past year were modest, around 11%.
    The biggest losers were those who bought after 2016. Half of the buyers who bought between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss over the surveyed period. Among those who bought between 2021 and 2024, the gains were slim – although some buyers who got deals during the depths of the Covid downturn in late 2020 and early 2021 may fare better.

    Adding in other costs of buying, selling and ownership would further add to the losses. Transaction costs in Manhattan can range from 6% to 10%, according to brokers. Renovations and improvements also aren’t counted in the losses, nor are maintenance fees or taxes. Adjusting for inflation would also increase the losses and lower returns.
    Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, said inflation has increased 36% over the past decade.
    “So if I had invested in a Manhattan condo in September 2015 (close to the peak) and sold it in August 2025 for the same nominal price, a 0% nominal return, I actually lost 36% in real terms,” he said. “This is surprising since many people think of real estate as a good inflation hedge.”
    He noted that the Case-Shiller national home price index went up 89% in the 10 years between September 2015 and August 2025, “a lot better than in NYC and also far higher than the 36% inflation.”
    The reasons for Manhattan’s “lost decade” in condo prices are as varied as they are disputed. The cap on state and local tax deductions that began in 2018 put pressure on prices and demand, as did a 2019 rent law. The migration of some higher earners to Florida during Covid also added to real estate fears, although the population and demand quickly rebounded.
    The one exception to the trend was the top of the market. Those who bought and sold apartments for $10 million or more made double-digit profits, no matter when they initially bought.
    Brokers and analysts say the increased concentration of wealth at the top, rising stock markets and ceaseless demand from those who are less affected by economic and market cycles has powered continued gains in the luxury market.
    “The higher end has fared better over the decade, especially in, let’s say, the top 4% of the market,” Miller said. “The reason is Wall Street and financial markets. And the ability to buy in cash, independent of interest rates.”
    Two thirds of the apartment deals done in the third quarter were done in cash, Miller said, far above the historical average of around 53% and showing the continued dependence of the Manhattan market on wealthy buyers who don’t need mortgages.
    In a market defined by frequent ups and downs, brokers say the current upswing presents an opportunity for both buyers and sellers.
    “I’m bullish and have a very positive outlook for New York real estate,” said Jared Antin, executive director at Brown Harris Stevens and a co-author of the report. “While some people may have lost money on the deals [over the decade], the losses were negligible. It speaks to the blue chip nature of the Manhattan market. Does everyone want to make money on their real estate? Of course. But this market is incredibly stable.”
    Sellers who bought during the dip in 2020 and early 2021 could also see profits when they start to sell, Antin said.
    Still, with median prices hovering near all-time highs and uncertainty around the upcoming mayoral election, many potential buyers prefer to stay on the sidelines and rent, even if they can afford to buy. The number of households in New York City making more than $1 million a year who are renting more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, to 5,661, according to a report from RentCafe.
    What’s more, signed contracts for high-end apartments — priced at $4 million or more — fell 39% in September, according to Olshan Realty, following increases in August and July. Brokers blame a rapid decline in inventory and lack of new supply from condo developments rather than a decline in demand or fears that Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, would become the next mayor of New York City.
    “There certainly is a downside risk to policy,” Miller said. “But as we’ve seen in the past, those fears are usually overblown.” More