When, in october 2017, Wolfgang Schäuble left the Detlev Rohwedder Building for the final time after his stint as German finance minister, hundreds of civil servants, dressed all in black, waited under his window in the shape of a giant zero. Their schwarze Null symbolised the balanced budget, or surpluses, he had achieved since 2014. It was the apogee of German fiscal self-congratulation. More
After peaking in 2022 at 11% year on year, inflation across the rich world has steadily fallen. Until now. As central banks bring down interest rates, headline inflation across the rich world is edging up (see chart 1 ). It rose from 2.1% in September to 2.5% in December. More
Federal Reserve officials in January agreed they would need to see inflation come down more before lowering interest rates further, and expressed concern about the impact President Donald Trump’s tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided at the meeting to hold their key policy rate steady after three consecutive cuts totaling a full percentage point in 2024.In reaching the decision, members commented on the potential impacts from the new administration, including chatter about the tariffs as well as the impact from reduced regulations and taxes. The committee noted that current policy is “significantly less restrictive” than it had been before the rate cuts, giving members time to evaluate conditions before making any additional moves.Members said that the current policy provides “time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, with the vast majority pointing to a still-restrictive policy stance. Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.”Officials noted concerns they had about the potential for policy changes to keep inflation above the Fed’s target.The president already has instituted some tariffs but in recent days has threatened to expand them.In remarks to reporters Tuesday, Trump said he is looking at 25% duties on autos, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors that would accelerate through the year. While he did not delve too far into specifics, the tariffs would take trade policy to another level and pose further threats to prices at a time when inflation has eased but is still above the Fed’s 2% goal.FOMC members cited, according to the meeting summary, “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs.”They further noted “upside risks to the inflation outlook. In particular, participants cited the possible effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.”Since the meeting, most central bank officials have spoken in cautious tones about where policy is headed from here. Most view the current level of rates in a position where they can take their time when evaluating how to proceed.In addition to the general focus Fed officials put on employment and inflation, Trump’s plans for fiscal and trade policies have added a wrinkle into the considerations.On the flip side of worries over tariffs and inflation, the minutes noted “substantial optimism about the economic outlook, stemming in part from an expectation of an easing in government regulations or changes in tax policies.”Many economists expect tariffs that Trump plans on launching to aggravate inflation, though Fed policymakers have said their response would be dependent on whether they are one-time increases or if they generate more underlying inflation that would necessitate a policy response.Inflation indicators lately have been mixed, with consumer prices rising more than expected in January but wholesale prices indicating softer pipeline pressures.Fed Chair Jerome Powell has generally avoided speculation on the impact the tariffs would have. However, other officials have expressed concern and conceded that Trump’s moves could impact policy, possibly delaying rate cuts further. Market pricing currently is anticipating the next reduction to come in July or September.
The Fed’s benchmark overnight borrowing rate is currently targeted between 4.25%-4.5%.
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Carvana topped Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations for the fourth quarter, while guiding for another “strong” year in 2025.
Carvana gave a broad 2025 guidance that includes growth in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA.
For 2024, the Tempe, Arizona-based company reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.38 billion and net income of roughly $404 million.
A Carvana sign and signature vending machine in Tempe, Arizona.
Michael Wayland | CNBC
Carvana topped Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations for the fourth quarter while guiding for another “strong” year in 2025.
Carvana, as it has in the past, gave a broad guidance outlook for this year that includes growth in both retail units sold and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, including sequential increases in both during the first quarter.
Shares of Carvana fell more than 10% during after-hours trading Wednesday. The stock closed at $281.82, down roughly 1%.
Here’s how the company performed in the fourth quarter, compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG:
Earnings per share: 56 cents vs. 29 cents expected
Revenue: $3.55 billion vs. $3.31 billion expected
Revenue of $3.55 billion was up 46% from $2.42 billion in the prior-year period. Full-year 2024 revenue came in at $13.67 billion, up almost 27% from $10.77 billion in 2023.
For 2024, the Tempe, Arizona-based company reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.38 billion and net income of roughly $404 million. That includes adjusted EBITDA of $359 million and net income of $159 million during the fourth quarter. Fourth-quarter net income marks major improvement from a loss of $200 million in the same period a year earlier.
On a per-share basis, the company reported earnings of 56 cents for the December period, compared with a loss of $1 per share during the same quarter in 2023.
Both the yearly and quarterly results were records for Carvana.
Carvana said it sold 416,348 retail vehicles last year, up roughly 33% from the year before, for record total annual revenue of $13.67 billion in 2024. Its total gross profit per unit for the fourth quarter and full year was $6,671 and $6,908, respectively. Both metrics were up nearly $1,400 from 2023.
“With just ~1% market share today and many opportunities to improve and expand our offering from here, we know this is just the beginning of our journey to change the way people buy and sell cars,” Carvana CEO and co-founder Ernie Garcia said in a news release.
Shares of Carvana are up roughly 40% in 2025, adding to last year’s nearly 285% gain.
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UnitedHealthcare is offering certain employees in its benefits operations unit the option to accept buyouts if they quit by March 3, following a tumultuous year for the insurance giant, CNBC has learned.
If the company does not meet a resignation quota through buyouts, it will lay off employees, two people familiar with the matter said, citing an internal resource site.
The buyout offers come after a tumultuous last year for UnitedHealth Group, which grappled with the fatal shooting of the UnitedHealthcare CEO, a historically costly cyberattack, and rising medical costs.
A general view outside the United Healthcare corporate headquarters on December 4, 2024 in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
Stephen Maturen | Getty Images
UnitedHealthcare is offering certain employees in its benefits operations unit the option to accept buyouts if they quit by March 3, following a tumultuous year for the insurance giant, CNBC has learned.
Those who don’t accept the offer will continue in either their current role or a comparable position, two people familiar with the matter told CNBC. If the company does not meet a resignation quota through buyouts, it will lay off employees, the people said, citing an internal resource site.
The company declined to share how many employees received buyout offers under the so-called Voluntary Resignation Separation Program. The benefits operations unit oversees multiple subdivisions that help manage customer service, claims, enrollment, customers’ insurance benefits and more, one person said.
UnitedHealthcare, the insurance arm of UnitedHealth Group, is the largest private health insurer in the U.S. UnitedHealth Group had more than 440,000 employees as of December 2023, but it does not disclose how many people work in its benefits segment or overall insurance business.
UnitedHealth Group is the biggest health-care conglomerate in the U.S. based on revenue and its roughly $460 billion market cap, but it has tried to cut costs as medical expenses increase for Medicare Advantage beneficiaries and it deals with the fallout from the costly cyberattack against its subsidiary Change Healthcare. It has also faced renewed anger over high health-care costs in the U.S., following the killing of its insurance unit CEO Brian Thompson in December.
Employees eligible for the buyouts include full-time or part-time U.S. workers assigned to four internal segments under benefits operations, including corporate, consumer operations, core services and provider services, according to an internal memo sent Monday and viewed by CNBC.”This voluntary option is part of our ongoing efforts to ensure our team is best positioned to meet the evolving needs of the people and customers we are honored to serve,” a UnitedHealth spokesperson told CNBC in a statement. “We continue to grow our workforce with more than 3,200 positions currently available on UnitedHealth Group’s careers site.”
The company expects employees’ termination date to be no sooner than May 1, according to the memo. The memo said some employees who accept buyouts may need to work beyond that date, but the company does not expect to require them to work past Nov. 13.
Their severance packages will depend on the number of years they have spent at the company and their salary grade, and will kick in on their termination date, the memo said. The benefits provided to employees included in any potential future layoffs may not be “as favorable” as those offered to workers under the buyout program, according to the memo.
Workers who received the buyout offers are in shock, said the people familiar with the matter, especially after UnitedHealth Group reported its highest-ever annual revenue in 2024. The company said in its January earnings release that it generated $400.3 billion in revenue in 2024, up 8% year over year.
UnitedHealth executives said during the company’s fourth-quarter call in January that “digital adoption” helped the company lower costs. CEO Andrew Witty called it a “modernization agenda” which includes but isn’t limited to artificial intelligence.
He added that UnitedHealth is “just kind of scratching the surface of the opportunity.”
Workers were informed about the buyouts Monday during a meeting that lasted around 10 minutes and were told they will have the opportunity to ask questions in information sessions in the coming days, the people said.
The buyouts follow the shooting of Thompson, which unleashed a torrent of pent-up anger and resentment toward the insurance industry and renewed calls for reform.
That came only months after Change Healthcare, which processes medical claims, was hit by a cyberattack in February 2024 that compromised the protected health information of around 190 million people. UnitedHealth Group has paid out more than $3 billion to providers affected by the cyberattack.
UnitedHealth Group also laid off workers in its Optum health services division last year.
Shares of the company closed up 2% on Wednesday. More
U.S. government travel makes up about 2% of United’s business, its chief financial officer said.
President Donald Trump and Elon Musk have vowed to slash government costs.
Thousands of federal employees have been either laid off or offered buyouts.
A United Airlines plane takes off from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, on November 23, 2021.
Drew Angerer | Getty Images
United Airlines says travel demand has been resilient lately — except from the U.S. government.
Government travel “has fallen off here post-inauguration,” United’s Chief Financial Officer Mike Leskinen said at a Barclays industry conference on Wednesday, referring to the start of President Donald Trump’s term last month.
Trump and his advisor, billionaire Elon Musk, have vowed to cut costs in the government, and thousands of government workers have either been laid off or offered buyouts. Jobless claims have surged in Washington, D.C.
The government travel segment is about 2% of United’s revenue, a United spokeswoman said. The airline brought in nearly $52 billion in passenger revenue last year. Leskinen said other demand is helping to make up for the shortfall.
Strong international leisure travel demand continues to outshine domestic demand, Leskinen added.
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The San Francisco 49ers are considering a sale of up to 10% of the franchise to either a private equity firm or other investors, including wealthy individuals or families, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The 49ers are hoping to value the franchise near $9 billion, the person said.
The York family owns the 49ers, and Jed York is the 49ers’ CEO.
A San Francisco 49ers helmet on the field during pregame warmups before an NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, on Dec. 17, 2023.
Ryan Kang | Getty Images
The San Francisco 49ers may be the next National Football League franchise to sell a minority stake to private equity.
The 49ers are considering a sale of up to 10% of the franchise to either a private equity firm or other investors, including wealthy individuals or families, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The New York Giants are also exploring a minority stake sale, the franchise announced last week.
NFL owners voted last year to allow private equity investment of up to 10% of a franchise. The Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills have already struck deals with investment firms, and the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders have used the increased interest from private equity to generate higher prices from other individuals and families.
The 49ers are hoping to value the franchise near $9 billion, the person said. CNBC valued the organization at $7.4 billion in its most recent valuations list.
Bloomberg first reported the team’s interest in selling a minority stake.
The NFL’s 49ers are both recently and historically one of the most successful NFL franchises in terms of wins and losses. The parent company of the 49ers, 49ers Enterprises, also owns the English football club Leeds United. The York family owns the 49ers, and Jed York is the 49ers’ CEO.
Many teams are eager to sell minority stakes for increased liquidity for family members or for money that can be pumped back into the team for stadium repairs or future investments.
Sales to private equity firms come with no voting rights. Still, firms have been willing to pay premium prices for small stakes because they come with perks, such as owner’s box seating, which can be used for clients and employees. More
Walmart is drawing more online sales from higher-income shoppers, as it expands its online assortment, remodels stores and grows its membership program, Walmart+.
Households earning more than $100,000 made up 75% of the company’s market share gains in the fiscal third quarter, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on the company’s earnings call in November.
Yet some investors have questioned whether Walmart’s traction with affluent shoppers has staying power as it prepares to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, especially if the sticker shock of inflation cools.
Shoppers at a Walmart store in Secaucus, New Jersey, U.S., in March 2024.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Walmart is known for its low prices and no frills approach.
So it may come as a surprise that wealthier shoppers are helping to fuel the retailer’s growth.
For more than two years, the discounter has noticed more customers with six-figure incomes shopping on its website and in its stores. Households earning more than $100,000 made up 75% of the company’s market share gains in the fiscal third quarter, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on the company’s earnings call in November.
Those newer and more frequent customers have helped support the company’s aspirations to sell more higher-margin items, such as clothing and home goods. They are driving Walmart’s e-commerce sales, which have grown by double digits for 10 consecutive quarters. And they can boost the retailer’s newer revenue streams, such as subscription-based membership program Walmart+ and its advertising business Walmart Connect.
As Walmart reports its latest earnings on Thursday, Wall Street will be watching whether those upper-income customers are sticking around, after market share gains helped the retailer’s shares soar about 83% in the last year. Yet some investors have questioned whether Walmart’s traction with affluent shoppers has staying power, especially if the sticker shock of inflation cools.
In an interview with CNBC, Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner acknowledged that the retailer has gained and then lost upper-income customers before, such as in 2008 and 2009 during the Great Recession. Affluent shoppers stretched their dollars at the big-box retailer, but then ultimately returned to competitors.
This time, Furner said the gains will last because Walmart can save shoppers both time and money with e-commerce options.
“It’s different because we deliver to you at the curb [of the store],” he said in the late January interview. “We deliver to your house. We deliver to your refrigerator. That whole Supercenter, which is an amazing retail format, is available in an hour or two for a large part of the country and growing really quickly.”
Walmart has expanded its delivery options, including direct to fridge deliveries. Home deliveries are a key perk of its subscription program, Walmart+.
Source: Walmart
Delivering growth
Walmart’s expanding digital services have helped convince higher-income shoppers to give it a shot, said Brad Thomas, a retail analyst and managing director at KeyBanc Capital Markets. Some of those newer or more frequent customers have joined Walmart+, a subscription-based membership program that includes perks like free home deliveries. Walmart+, which launched about five years ago, is Walmart’s answer to Amazon Prime.
Walmart has not disclosed the program’s membership count, but it has reported double-digit membership income growth in each of the past four quarters.
Thomas said e-commerce options wipe out a potential hurdle for affluent shoppers: a potential stigma about shopping at the big-box stores themselves.
“There’s a customer in America that doesn’t think of itself as a Walmart shopper,” he said. “They think of themselves as a Target shopper or a Publix or a Whole Foods shopper and through the app and through the delivery capabilities, they can remain a non-Walmart core shopper, but get all the benefits of getting the branded items at Walmart prices.”
As inflation forced shoppers of all incomes to hunt for deals, some wealthier consumers realized they can get the same national brands like Tide detergent or Bounty paper towels from Walmart cheaper and often faster than at Amazon because of Walmart’s nearby stores, he said.
Walmart’s website and app have increased their selection, too, as the company has bulked up its third-party marketplace. Starting this summer, the company began offering premium beauty brands through its website, including hairdryers from T3 and perfumes from Victoria’s Secret.
Shoppers can now find handbags from Chanel and Louis Vuitton, too. Last month, Walmart announced a deal with resale platform Rebag, which sells the items through Walmart’s marketplace.
At Walmart’s flagship stores, similar to the one in Teterboro, NJ, the company plays up a lot of its exclusive brands such as activewear brand Love & Sports, and Beautiful, a kitchen and home decor line developed with Drew Barrymore.
Melissa Repko | CNBC
Yet as Walmart tries to keep those customers, it wants to encourage them to shop in person, as well. Walmart has stepped up investments in its stores to freshen its look and counter negative perceptions that higher-income shoppers might have.
Walmart has sped up the pace of remodels for its more than 4,600 stores across the U.S., with plans to revamp about 650 locations per year, an acceleration from a prior cadence of 450 to 500 per year, said Hunter Hart, senior vice president of Walmart Realty.
Remodeled stores have brighter lighting, wider aisles and mannequins, said Alvis Washington, Walmart’s vice president of retail brand experience. The stores also feature Walmart’s newer and more fashion-forward brands like Scoop and Free Assembly, and national brands that shoppers would recognize, such as Reebok.
The discounter launched a new grocery brand, BetterGoods, last year with colorful packaging and creative flavors that looks similar to merchandise that shoppers might find at Trader Joe’s or Target.
Walmart U.S. CEO Furner said some of those changes have drawn upper-income customers to the company’s stores and app.
He said Walmart’s market share gains with affluent shoppers have come from online and in-store shopping, but added curbside pickup orders showed early signs of popularity with those customers. Even before the pandemic, Walmart saw that people who shopped with curbside pickup bought more higher-priced items, such as prime beef and seafood, Furner added.
He said that still rings true: Walmart sees more premium items in the shopping baskets of customers who buy online, get home deliveries or use curbside pickup.
Washington said Walmart treaded carefully with its store redesign, realizing it could risk its reputation for low prices and resonance with core customers, who typically have lower incomes. It promoted newer brands, but mixed in familiar staples, such as folded piles of inexpensive bath towels and denim.
“Having a great, elevated experience and great value aren’t mutually exclusive,” Walmart’s Washington said, recounting the company’s approach. “So when we looked at this, it’s like, how do we do both and make sure we can gain new customers and maintain the customers that we have?
When comparing remodeled stores to the rest of the fleet, Washington said higher comparable store sales reflect that customers like the different look. Walmart declined to provide specific numbers, saying it won’t release sales numbers until it reports fourth-quarter earnings.
Walmart’s customer mix for its U.S. e-commerce business hasn’t changed, even as it attracts higher-income shoppers, according to an analysis by market research firm Euromonitor. About 34% of Walmart’s online customers in the U.S. last year had incomes of $100,000 and above, which is roughly flat compared with two years prior.
Michelle Evans, global lead for retail and digital shopper insights at Euromonitor, said that indicates that Walmart is also gaining market share from lower- and middle-income customers.
Walmart still has a smaller share of higher-income shoppers than some key rivals: 49% and 48% of online U.S. shoppers at Target and Amazon, respectively, have incomes above $100,000.
Amazon remains a formidable competitor, especially when it comes to wealthier shoppers and general merchandise categories, Evans said. But Walmart’s biggest edge is its grocery department.
Francesca and Sam Frink, who live in the Chicago area, started shopping each week at Walmart after signing up for its membership program, Walmart+. As two working parents, they said they appreciate saving time by getting groceries delivered to their home.
Courtesy of Francesca and Sam Frink
Grocery gains
One of Walmart’s newer, higher-income shoppers is Francesca Frink. The 30-year-old lives in the Chicago suburb of Park Ridge, Illinois, with her husband, Sam, 1-year-old son and their English setter. The Frink family’s combined annual household income is more than $200,000.
Last fall, Francesca Frink signed up for Walmart+ after her mother-in-law ordered a stroller from Walmart’s website and got it dropped at her door three hours later.
Initially, she said she hesitated to order fresh foods from Walmart. She bought packaged items like pasta and flour. Yet over time, the couple began ordering a larger portion of groceries, dog treats and even clothes for their son from Walmart.
The Frinks have stopped going to their old grocery store, Kroger-owned supermarket Mariano’s. They estimate that their weekly grocery bill is about 20% cheaper.
Previously, the couple said they avoided Walmart because their nearest store is outdated. Yet Sam Frink said the game has changed with curbside pickup and home deliveries.
“You don’t have to go in,” he said. “That’s the biggest thing.”
Francesca Frink said home deliveries from Walmart, included in their Walmart+ membership, save the couple time while they juggle two careers, a toddler and a dog. Plus, she said she found that Walmart had the grocery items she wanted and even those she didn’t expect, including organic blueberries, natural peanut butter and specialty mushroom ravioli.
Still, Francesca Frink said she still faces some apprehension from friends and family about buying groceries from Walmart.
But she said they’ve been surprised when they’ve tried and liked food items from Walmart.
In her day job, Euromonitor’s Evans tracked Walmart’s digital gains with higher-income shoppers. Yet she also saw it firsthand in her household.
Her husband signed the family up for Walmart+. During the holiday season, he told her all of his Christmas purchases would be coming from the discounter.
“He made a comment that all the gifts were coming from Walmart, and obviously that comes with a certain impression,” she said.
So she was surprised when she opened his gift and discovered it was a Michael Kors tote.
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