Raphael Stevens

The impact of a government shutdown on commercial real estate, while not quite as immediate, is far-reaching.
A federal shutdown affects data collection, causes uncertainty for CRE dealmaking and hits investor confidence.
Looking at specific sectors, retail and hospitality will see the quickest impact because they are entirely consumer driven.

The sunset is reflected in the windows of the US Capitol as a man runs on the National Mall in Washington, DC, on October 1, 2025, the first day of the US federal government shutdown.
Andrew Caballero-reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
When the government shuts down, real estate watchers tend to focus first on the impact to the residential market. Potentially thousands of home sales will be held up because the federal flood insurance program is no longer able to issue new policies; the Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veteran Affairs and Department of Agriculture might slow or suspend their mortgage processing; and the IRS might not process tax transcripts or income verification documents as quickly.

But the impact to commercial real estate, while not quite as immediate, is much more far-reaching. A government shutdown delays government data on the economy. It causes uncertainty in the financial markets and, consequently, commercial real estate dealmaking, especially for small businesses. It also hits investor confidence. Finally, but most immediately, it causes a pullback in consumer demand for certain sectors.
According to a post from the Commercial Real Estate Alliance (CREA), potential ramifications include:

Reduced demand for CRE as businesses and government agencies delay or cancel leasing and development projects.
Greater difficulty for CRE investors and developers to obtain financing and conduct transactions amid uncertainty and market volatility.
Delayed approvals of permits or other government sign-offs necessary for CRE development projects.

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Economic data

The government shutdown meant there was no release of the September monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That affects investors who need this kind of data to make decisions about the state of the economy and interest rates. 
If the shutdown continues, the Census Bureau will not release economic data on construction spending, housing starts and building permits. Those are all key for multifamily investors.

CRE finance

Market uncertainty leads to tighter credit from lenders and potentially higher risk premiums on deals, especially if they have anything to do with federal programs.

“Investors in general and lenders specifically look for stability, and when there’s political instability, it always creates more caution about making investment decisions and lending,” said Ran Eliasaf, founder and managing partner of Northwind Group, a real estate private equity and debt fund manager. “We think the biggest risk to underwrite is political risk. It’s true for the federal level, like government shutdown, and it’s true for local, like the New York City mayoral election.”

Retail, hospitality, senior housing

Looking at specific sectors, retail and hospitality will see the quickest impact because they are entirely consumer driven. Consumer spending, especially in areas where there is a high concentration of federal workers, could drop as employees are furloughed or even laid off. 
“I think that’s a big risk,” said Christine Cooper, chief U.S. economist and managing director at CoStar, a commercial real estate information and analytics firm. “Think about all the small retailers and coffee shops. They have very slim margins, so they’re more likely to be disrupted if they lose their customers. They won’t be able to afford it, and you’ll see some closures in pretty short order.”
It’s a similar situation in hospitality, where closures in government services and at national parks will impact tourism. Washington, D.C.’s tourism has already been hit by the administration’s activation of the national guard and other federal troops. This is just one more strike against the city.
Skilled nursing facilities and senior care properties could also see deal delays. Those, along with affordable housing projects, use financing from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). 
“I think [for] HUD financing, the queue will get longer. Applications will not be processed,” said Eliasaf.

Federal CRE

The federal commercial real estate market will take the hardest hit, as sales of those properties, which are managed by the General Services Administration (GSA), will either be delayed or stopped. Federal contracts, including new leases and property maintenance agreements with tenants, will also have to wait. 
“It’s going to impact dealmaking. Definitely anybody that’s negotiating a GSA lease, a government-backed lease, from the VA to even securing HUD financing is going to run into some issues right now,” said Eliasaf.
Depending on how long the shutdown lasts, REITs that cater to federal agencies, like Easterly Government Properties and JBG Smith that depend heavily on government rent payments, could be in hot water. 
In an SEC filing earlier this year, Easterly said, “substantially all of our revenue is dependent on the receipt of rent payments from the GSA and U.S. Government tenant agencies.”  

Construction

If past shutdowns are any guide, the construction sector will be hit as well. A report from ConstructConnect, an information and technology company for the construction industry, notes that the government shutdown in 2013 hit federally funded infrastructure projects, because permit reviews by the Environmental Protection Agency stopped. Contractors and trade specialists rely on those permits to mobilize crews. 
And, the 2019 shutdown “froze billions of dollars in federal construction spending, stalled approvals for projects tied to the Department of Transportation, and disrupted bidding timelines, which squeezed subcontractors like electricians, plumbers, and concrete specialists, who depend on predictable project starts to manage labor, materials, and cash flow,” according to the report. More

Some jewelry companies that aim to offer gold products at lower price points are beginning to sound the alarm on higher prices for the precious metal.
Gold has risen significantly over the past year, reaching record highs amid recession fears and macroeconomic uncertainty, and is forecast to continue to rise through next year.
To adapt, some companies are raising prices of their products, while others are exploring alternative avenues for producing high-quality products.

Gold prices held steady on Thursday, hovering near the record high hit the day before, helped by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and political uncertainty.
David Gray | Afp | Getty Images

Amid global economic turbulence, the prices of precious metals have been climbing higher and higher.
The price of gold in particular has skyrocketed over the past year, rising more than 50%. For midsize jewelry companies aiming to offer fine gold necklaces, earrings and more at lower price points than legacy luxury jewelry brands, gold futures could be spelling trouble.

Though gold is often subject to market fluctuations, investors have been increasing their holdings over the past year over recession fears and market uncertainty, according to Goldman Sachs. Gold is on pace for its third straight year of double-digit gains, even hitting record highs this week during the government shutdown.
On Tuesday, gold prices hit $4,000 an ounce for the first time in history — and they’re showing no signs of slowing down.
Analysts from UBS wrote last week that lower interest rates, weakness in the dollar and political uncertainty will only continue to drive the price of gold higher.
“We now expect inflows for this year to be 830 metric tons, which is almost double our initial forecast of 450 metric tons at the start of the year,” the UBS analysts wrote in a note. “The key risk for gold is better U.S. growth and if the Fed is forced to raise rates due to inflation-related upside surprises.”
A Goldman Sachs report from late last month predicted the climb, forecasting that the price of gold will rise 6% through the middle of 2026 to $4,000 per troy ounce, a unit of measurement used for precious metals. The report categorized buyers of gold into two groups: conviction buyers, who purchase the metal consistently, and opportunistic buyers, who jump in “when they believe the price is right.”

The analysts said they expect central banks to continue buying gold for three more years.
“Our rationale is that emerging market central banks remain significantly underweight gold compared to their developed market counterparts and are gradually increasing allocations as part of a broader diversification strategy,” analyst Lina Thomas wrote.
And according to July survey data from the World Gold Council, roughly 95% of central banks expect global gold holdings to rise in the next year.

Stock chart icon

Gold futures

That uncertainty comes on top of an already turbulent global economy reeling from changing tariff policies from President Donald Trump. Though he made clear in August that gold will not be tariffed and that bars from Switzerland will not be subject to the country’s 39% tariff, Trump’s steep rates on other countries have been disrupting the global supply chain.
For jewelers, the rising price of the precious metal may be a cause for concern. Large retailers like Pandora and Signet have signaled that they are exploring price hikes or alternative manufacturing methods to counteract the hit they’re taking from gold.
And some jewelry companies that aim to offer gold products at lower price points, like Mejuri, are feeling the pressure too.
Mejuri, which aims to sell gold and luxury jewelry at more affordable levels than its competitors, announced last month that the company was being forced to raise its prices due to the rising cost of gold, silver and tariffs.
“While we’ve been doing everything we can to absorb the impact and preserve the quality and craftsmanship you expect from us, you’ll see some prices update on Monday, September 29th,” Mejuri wrote in an email to customers. “We’re tackling these shifts head-on: streamlining our supply chain, strengthening sourcing and designing with pricing in mind.”
The company said it’s also innovating new products like 10 karat solid gold to keep offering quality jewelry at affordable prices. Mejuri declined to comment.

‘A fear indicator’

With the price of gold rising and showing no signs of stopping, some jewelry companies are being forced to be innovative with their pricing and products.
In its second-quarter earnings report in August, Pandora said it faced an 80-basis point hit due to higher prices of gold and silver and that it planned some price adjustments to offset those headwinds. And on Signet’s most recent earnings call in early September, the company said it had seen more than 30% increase in the cost of gold.
BaubleBar, which specializes in fine jewelry, offers a large selection of “demi-fine” gold pieces, which co-founder Daniella Yacobovsky said has allowed the company to somewhat avoid the brunt of the pressure from gold prices.
The company’s demi-fine jewelry features a thick, high-quality 18k gold plated over a sterling silver base, which allows BaubleBar to avoid the costs associated with solid gold jewelry. The brand’s demi-fine earrings range from anywhere between $50 to $150.
“We’ve actually seen a really huge increase in interest in demi-fine,” Yacobovsky told CNBC. “I think that it offers people a really fantastic alternative to solid gold. … You’re going to get a really fantastic quality similar to that for a lower price point.”
Still, Yacobovsky said it’s concerning that significant events affecting the global economy are happening at higher rates than even five years ago. She said she hasn’t seem something as volatile as the skyrocketing price of gold in the industry “for a long time.”
The key, she said, will be for businesses to capitalize on their ability to make smart choices.
For Alexis Bittar, CEO of his eponymous jewelry company, the smart choice meant leaning into gold-plated pieces, which allows the company to save costs over solid gold, and raising prices slightly to match the products that are coming in.
But the company is not repricing any of its existing products, Bittar said.
“You’re constantly juggling between the tariff and the acceleration of the gold prices, so you’re staying within a price point that you’re known for,” Bittar said. “From the consumer side, they’re not really caring. They vaguely know the prices of gold are going up … but mentally, they have an unconscious price point that they’re looking to spend, and when you start to way exceed it, you’re pricing people out.”
Bittar said his company is seeing a “cautious” consumer, but that any pullback in spending is likely more related to solid gold than plated gold, and that the wealthy consumer base is more willing to pay higher prices than lower- or middle-income shoppers.
Even for ear piercing company Rowan, which also offers gold jewelry, the rapidly changing industry may be spelling trouble. CEO Louisa Schneider told CNBC that it’s hard to imagine any other industry whose raw material costs have risen as dramatically as gold.

Rowan Piercing Studio’s Suburban Square location in Ardmore, PA.
Courtesy: Rowan

Because ear piercing requires some level of surgical steel or titanium for ideal healing, Rowan often uses 14k gold to coat those materials, leaving the company “somewhat insulated” from the rising price of gold because it is required to uphold certain health and safety standards.
Still, Schneider said Rowan had to raise prices on some of its gold pieces in the beginning of the third quarter, which she said customers are willing to pay for because the company specializes in employing trained nurses for the piercings.
“This is a fear indicator. So that, from my standpoint, is quite concerning,” Schneider said. “Our expectation is that we do not see a significant reduction in the current pricing – if anything, we expect that gold will continue to be quite expensive. So we will continue to hedge ourselves and to work really closely with our vendors.”
Schneider said she’s seeing an “inflection point” in the price of gold and that it’s a cause for concern for all jewelry companies, but especially those that are unable to raise their prices to counteract the costs because they sell to non-luxury consumers who are less flexible with price changes.
Ultimately, she said this serves as a warning sign for the broader economy, even if it might not be hitting Rowan too hard.
“The demand is not coming from consumers that want to wear gold or industries that require gold as a component of manufacturing,” Schneider said. “This is coming from a hoarding of gold given an uncertainty around the U.S. dollar, and that’s unlike anything that we’ve seen.”
Correction: A previous version of this story misstated Signet’s sales. More

Even as the IPO market is starting to rebound, startups are staying private for longer thanks in large part to alternative capital, according to new data.
The median age of companies that have gone private so far this year is 13 years since founding, up from a median of 10 years in 2018, according to new data from Renaissance Capital.
Companies going public also have much larger revenue, since they’re maturing longer in private hands.

Klarna Group Plc signage during the company’s initial public offering (IPO) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

A version of this article appeared in CNBC’s Inside Alts newsletter, a guide to the fast-growing world of alternative investments, from private equity and private credit to hedge funds and venture capital. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
Even as the IPO market is starting to rebound, startups are staying private for longer thanks in large part to alternative capital, according to new data.

The median age of companies that have gone private so far this year is 13 years since founding, up from a median of 10 years in 2018, according to new data from Renaissance Capital.
A separate, recent study by Jay Ritter at the University of Florida found that between 1980 and 2024, the average age of companies going public has more than doubled.
Companies going public also have much larger revenue, since they’re maturing longer in private hands. In 1980, the median revenue for IPO companies was $16 million, or $64 million in inflation-adjusted 2024 dollars. By 2024, their median revenue had soared to $218 million, according to Ritter’s study.

The number of so-called “unicorns,” or private companies with valuations of more than $1 billion, has swelled to over 1,200 as of July, according to CB Insights. OpenAI’s valuation of $500 billion, notched with last week’s sale of employee shares topped  SpaceX’s $400 billion valuation to become the world’s most highly valued private company.
Analysts and economists largely blame the regulatory burden and short-term pressures associated with being a publicly traded company for the urge to stay private. Yet the surge in alternative investments and private capital – from sovereign wealth funds and family offices to venture capital, private equity and private credit – are providing more than enough capital for today’s tech startups.

Global private-equity assets under management have risen over 15% a year over the past decade to over $12 trillion, according to Preqin. Over the next decade, they’re expected to double to around $25 trillion.

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Venture capital assets under management in North America are expected to increase from $1.36 trillion at the start of 2025 to $1.8 trillion in 2029, according to PitchBook.
“One of the main reasons for going public is to raise capital,” Ritter said. “Now there are a lot of good alternatives to raising capital without going public.”
Ritter said that the growth of new digital marketplaces for selling shares of private companies – like Forge Global and EquityZen – give employees liquidity for their equity instead of having to wait for an IPO.
Klarna, the Swedish fintech startup, was founded 20 years ago and experienced wild swings in valuation before going public last month. It was valued at $45.6 billion in 2021 thanks to a funding round led by SoftBank, but saw its valuation plunge to $6.7 billion in 2022. Its funding along the way came from Sequoia Capital, IVP, Atomico, GIC and Heartland, the family office of Danish billionaire Anders Holch Povlsen.
Klarna’s current market cap is $15 billion.
While private equity and venture capital firms argue that the fastest growth stage for startups is in the early years, with the best returns gone by the time they go public, Ritter said the evidence is more complicated. While returns for private equity and venture capital have outperformed public markets in the past, he said the rush of capital flowing into alternatives and the huge prices paid by private investors for assets in recent years could mark a turning point.
“Money flows into an asset class as long as there are abnormal returns,” he said. “But so much money has poured in, I don’t expect there to be abnormal returns in the future.” More

Real estate investors, both individual and institutional, bought one-third of all single-family residential properties sold in the second quarter of 2025.
That is an increase from 27% in the first quarter, and the highest percentage in the last five years, according to a report from CJ Patrick Co., using numbers from BatchData.
Institutional investors are selling more homes than they buy and have been for six consecutive quarters.

A sold sign is posted in front of a home for sale on Aug. 27, 2025 in San Francisco, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
Real estate investors, both individual and institutional, bought one-third of all single-family residential properties sold in the second quarter of 2025. That is an increase from 27% in the first quarter, and the highest percentage in the last five years, according to a report from CJ Patrick Co., using numbers from BatchData, a real estate data provider. Investors accounted for 25.7% of residential home sales in 2024.

While the share of sales is higher, the raw numbers are lower. Investors in the second quarter of this year bought 16,000 fewer homes than a year ago, but home sales overall were much weaker this year than last year. That accounts for the gain in the investor share. Investors continue to own about 20% of the 86 million single-family homes in the country.
“While investors purchased more homes than they sold in the second quarter, they did sell over 104,000 homes, with 45% of those sales going to traditional homebuyers,” said Ivo Draginov, co-founder and chief innovation officer at BatchData. “So in addition to the important role investors continue to play providing necessary liquidity to a weak home sales market, they’re also bringing much-needed inventory – both rental properties, and homes for owner-occupants – to the market.”
While large institutional investors continue to get most of the headlines in the single-family rental space, small investors account for more than 90% of the market. These are individuals owning 10 properties or less. The largest investors, those with 1,000 or more properties, make up just 2% of all investor-owned homes.

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Unlike individuals, institutional investors are now selling more homes than they buy and have been for six consecutive quarters. The nation’s largest landlords, Invitation Homes, Progress Residential, American Homes 4 Rent and FirstKey Homes, all sold more homes in the third quarter of this year than they purchased, according to an analysis from Parcl Labs. 
“They’re not exiting the space, just diverting capital into build-to-rent communities. But this shift means less competition for small investors and traditional homebuyers, while also adding more rental supply, which is needed in today’s market where younger adults often opt to rent since they can’t afford to buy a home,” said Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Co.

Looking regionally, Texas, California and Florida have the highest number of investor-owned homes. This is largely because they are also the most populous states. The states with the highest percentage of investor-owned homes are Hawaii, Alaska, Montana and Maine. These are also heavy tourism states. 
Investors have always focused on lower-priced homes because those can offer the best profits in resale years later. In the second quarter of this year, investors paid an average of $455,481 per home — well below the national average price of $512,800, according to the CJ Patrick report. It was, however, the highest average investor price in the past six quarters, since home prices overall continue to climb.
Investor homes are typically either smaller or in less expensive housing markets. Large investors bought even cheaper homes than the overall pool, with their average purchase price at $279,889. Their average sale price was $334,787. Institutional investors are concentrated most in the Midwest and South, where prices are below the national average. More