Raphael Stevens

President-elect Donald Trump’s trade and foreign policy team is taking a hawkish stance toward China.
U.S. companies are increasingly concerned a hard-line approach could stunt their prospects in the world’s second-largest economy – and turn them into targets of Chinese retaliation.
China’s retaliation tactics could range from economic changes to matters of diplomacy and security.

With President-elect Donald Trump’s trade and foreign policy team taking a hawkish stance toward China, U.S. companies are increasingly concerned a hard-line approach could stunt their prospects in the world’s second-largest economy – and turn them into targets of Chinese retaliation.
Trump has threatened to hit China with at least 60% tariffs and vowed to end reliance on the country. That alone would be disruptive. It would force companies to scramble to find other sources of supply, American consumers to pay higher prices at the store, and, according to many experts, lead to job losses.

On top of that, the Chinese government could respond with an expanded tool kit to target American businesses.
“The Trump administration’s actions may be seen or may be interpreted as economic war,” Scott Kennedy, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told reporters in Beijing on Thursday. “If they are interpreted in that way, China might have a much more vigorous response, not limited to tariffs.”
Those actions could range from economic changes to matters of diplomacy and security, Kennedy said, adding China may “push back as hard as they can.”
More combative relations between the U.S. and China also brings the risk of public backlash amid rising Chinese nationalism. The Chinese government has strong controls over information flow which has led to consumer boycotts of international brands.
“The worst part is the consumer brands that are not of a strategic nature and themselves are not controversial and would not be subject to export restrictions might be punished by the local consumer because of their nationality,” said, Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. “Since Covid, companies have been looking to diversify and bolster their supply chains, but there are still no easy and reliable replacements for the supply chains and manufacturing that has developed in China over the past decades.”

China’s retaliation tool kit

During Trump’s first term, the Chinese government retaliated against U.S. tariffs by imposing its own tariffs on U.S. imports.
The U.S.-China Business Council, in conjunction with Oxford Economics, estimates a new tit-for-tat tariff battle could result in a “permanent loss of revenue and pressure businesses to slash jobs and investment plans” with as many as 801,000 net job losses by 2025.
The report projected that Nevada, Florida and Arizona would be among the states hardest hit by such tariffs due to their economic reliance on consumer demand. Manufacturing states such as Indiana, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio would also be vulnerable, the Oxford report found. Swing states Nevada, Arizona and Michigan all flipped to Trump in the 2024 election, helping to deliver him back to the White House.
During the last trade battle, China also stopped buying agricultural products from the U.S. The move targeted key U.S. exports like soybeans, disproportionately hurting rural parts of the U.S. where Trump has strong support.

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping during the G-20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

James McGregor, a business consultant on China for three decades, said he sees Beijing using its leverage on U.S. agricultural purchases if it feels pressed this time, too.
“China is already focused on ridding itself of dependence on U.S. farm products. If alternative supplies are available, China may well shift away from American farmers where they can,” McGregor said.
Two years ago, China started importing corn from Brazil. The country is now China’s biggest supplier of corn, surpassing the U.S.
Beijing could also broaden its retribution methods to include targeting U.S. companies operating on Chinese soil.
The business climate in China has tightened meaningfully since Trump’s first term. Despite the Chinese leadership’s stated efforts to welcome international companies, AmCham China’s 2024 Business Climate Survey Report found 39% of companies polled felt less welcome in China.

Tougher laws, tightening regulations

There’s also the risk of legal and regulatory changes in China that could threaten U.S. companies.
In recent years, China made significant revisions to its export control regulations. Those tighter controls have restricted critical metals for the American clean energy and semiconductor sectors.
Analysts foresee China doing the same during a Trump second term, aiming to deprive U.S. industry of key minerals and components.
Beijing has also enhanced laws like an anti-foreign sanctions law that triggers probes, fines and restrictions on operations in the country.
Even before the U.S. election, Beijing had shown signs of targeting certain American companies. For example, PVH, the owner of Calvin Klein, is under investigation thanks to this law.
China has an upgraded anti-espionage law, which international business groups like AmCham China have criticized for what they say is “ambiguity” in the policy.
The law has led to executive and staff detentions and raids on international firms and has made it easier for officials to impose exit bans, barring the accused from leaving the country. 
Many worry that the day-to-day regulatory grind to operate in China could become a bigger slog under a heightened retaliatory environment.
Since Trump’s first term, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has consolidated power even further.
If Xi signals that U.S. companies are out of favor, they can expect regulations for permits, safety checks, licensing and other approvals to be interpreted more harshly by lower-level officials, experts say.
“We will likely see retaliation against American companies in China where they could be step-by-step squeezed out of the China market and replaced,” McGregor said.

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CNBC partnered with Fintrx to analyze single family offices that made the largest number of investments in private startups in 2024.

Guillaume Houze attends the 33rd ANDAM Prize Winner cocktail at les Jardins du Palais Royal on June 30, 2022 in Paris, France.
Pascal Le Segretain | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
The top 10 family offices for startup investments made over 150 investments combined this year, in everything from biotech and energy to crypto and artificial intelligence, according to a new analysis.

CNBC partnered with Fintrx, the private wealth intelligence platform, to analyze single family offices that made the largest number of investments in private startups in 2024. The list, a first of its kind, sheds light on the investments by some of the biggest names in family offices, from Bernard Arnault’s Aglaé Ventures to Laurene Powell Jobs’ Emerson Collective and Peter Thiel’s Thiel Capital. It also reveals names that are little known outside the secretive world of family offices — the private investment arms of wealthy families — but that have become major players in the world of venture capital and private markets.

The most active family office so far this year is Maelstrom, the Hong Kong-based family office of American investor Arthur Hayes, who co-founded the crypto exchange BitMEX. Maelstrom has invested in 22 private startups this year, according to the Fintrx data, topping all other family offices in the database. The vast majority of Maelstrom’s investments are in blockchain technology, including Cytonic, Magma, Infinit, Solayer, BSX, Khalani and Term Labs.
Ranking second on the Top 10 list is Motier Ventures, the family office and venture arm of Guillaume Houzé. Houzé, scion of the fabled French dynasty that owns Galeries Lafayette and other retailing giants, co-founded Motier in 2021 to invest in tech startups.
Motier has invested in 21 startups so far this year. Its investments are largely in artificial intelligence and blockchain, but also include publishing and advertising. The investments include Vibe.co, known as “the Google Ads of streaming”; Adaptive, a tech platform for the construction industry; and PayFlows, a fintech company. It was part of a $220 million seed funding round for Holistic AI, a French generative AI startup, and a $30 million seed round for Flex AI, a Paris-based AI compute company.
Motier was also an investor in two funding rounds for Mistral, the fast-growing French AI firm, which raised more than $500 million last year and whose investors include Nvidia, Lightspeed, and Andreesen Horowitz.

Tied for third are Atinum Investment, the Seoul, Korea-based family office for an unknown family that has mainly invested in software and AI; Hillspire, the family office of former Google CEO Eric Schmidt; and Emerson Collective.
Thiel Capital, tied for sixth, has invested in Fantasy Chess, founded by 17-time World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen, as well as Rhea Fertility, a Singapore-based fertility-clinic roll-up company.
The list doesn’t include the investment amounts and may not include all deals or all family offices, since they aren’t required to disclose their investments. Fintrx compiles its data based on public and private sources from its team of researchers. For the sake of the list, family offices are defined as investment vehicles or holding companies of a single family or individual that don’t manage money for outside investors. The investments don’t include real estate.
As a whole, the ranking offers a rare window into the growing power of family offices in the world of startup capital as they’ve grown in size, wealth and deal sophistication. Nearly a third of startup capital in 2022 came from family offices, according to a PWC report.

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AI has become their favorite investment theme for 2024, and likely will be again in 2025. According to the UBS Global Family Office Report, AI is now the favorite investment category for family offices. More than three-quarters, or 78%, of family offices surveyed plan to invest in AI in the next two to three years — the most for any category. As CNBC has previously reported, Aglaé Ventures, the tech venture arm of LVMH chief Arnault’s family office, has made a string of AI investments this year. Jeff Bezos’ Bezos Expeditions has also made several AI bets in 2024.
Family office advisors say serial investors like those on the Top 10 list often treat startups as idea labs — where they can learn about cutting-edge technology and markets. They can apply those learnings to larger investments or to their own companies.
Schmidt’s family office, Hillspire, for instance, has made over a half-dozen investments this year in AI, which have also helped inform his big bets on energy companies, given the power needs of AI computing. Hillspire was an investor in the $900 million investment round for Pacific Fusion, a nuclear fusion startup, as well as Sion Power.
While a large number of family offices invest in tech startups through venture capital funds, the deals on the CNBC list are for investments made directly by the family offices in startups.
The biggest family offices, such as Hillspire, Thiel or Aglaé, have growing teams of deal and tech experts who can analyze investments and valuations. Smaller family offices and those that don’t specialize in tech startups more typically invest through a VC fund. One of the biggest trends in family offices is “co-investing,” meaning a VC fund takes the lead on an investment and the family office invests as partners, often with lower fees.
Nico Mizrahi, co-founder and general partner of Pattern Ventures, which acts as a fund of funds for emerging managers and works with family offices, said there are growing risks for family offices trying to invest in tech startups on their own. After the stock market declines of 2022 and early 2023, which also brought down the valuations of many private tech companies, paper losses are piling up in the private tech market. The lack of IPOs, mergers and private-equity acquisitions has also made for fewer exits, locking up cash.
“Some of the family offices were not as disciplined and were drinking the Kool-Aid,” Mizrahi said. “I think they over-extended themselves and got a little over eager chasing the venture wave. There are going to be some recaps; there are going to be companies that disappear.”
Mizrahi said the best strategy, especially for smaller family offices, is to team up with experienced managers who have expertise in tech startups.
“It’s really hard to get the best deals and generate the best returns when you’re not doing something full time with 100% of your attention,” he said. “You really have to do it with a partner, firms that are out there doing it all day long, networking and doing due diligence, background and reference checks.” More

Hyundai Motor Co. on Thursday named Jose Munoz as the next president and CEO of the South Korean automaker, effective Jan. 1.
Munoz will succeed current President and CEO Jaehoon Chang, who is being promoted to the vice chair of Hyundai – Automotive Division.
Munoz, a native of Spain and a U.S. citizen, will be the first non-Korean CEO of Hyundai.

Hyundai CEO Jaehoon Chang (left) and José Muñoz, Hyundai president and global chief operating officer, attend the 2024 New York International Auto Show
Michael Wayland | CNBC

DETROIT – Hyundai Motor Co. on Thursday named Jose Munoz as the next president and CEO of the South Korean automaker, effective Jan. 1.
Munoz, an auto industry veteran who rose through the company’s North American ranks, will succeed current President and CEO Jaehoon Chang, who is being promoted to the vice chair of Hyundai Motor – Automotive Division.

“Jose is a proven leader with vast global experience and is ideally suited to lead Hyundai as competitiveness and business uncertainty increases,” Chang said in a statement. “As recently outlined at our CEO Investor Day, we have a clear Hyundai Way vision to create a future centered on mobility and energy. Together with Jose and the rest of our leadership team, the future is very bright for Hyundai.”
Munoz, a native of Spain and a U.S. citizen, will be the first non-Korean CEO of Hyundai.
Munoz currently serves as global chief operating officer of Hyundai as well as president and CEO of the North American operations of Hyundai and its luxury Genesis brand. He joined Hyundai in 2019 from Nissan Motor after 15 years with the Japanese automaker. He has been a member of the company’s board of directors since 2022.

Under Munoz, Hyundai’s North American operations have flourished. Hyundai’s sales have grown 16% since 2019 to roughly 801,200 vehicles last year. Hyundai’s products also have won several prominent awards and industry accolades.
It’s also grown its U.S. operations, including Hyundai and partners committing $12.6 billion to build a new “Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America” production facility and two battery joint ventures in Georgia.

“Succeeding in this challenging industry requires excellence throughout the value chain, from design and engineering, to manufacturing, sales and service, along with a talented team that’s able to deliver every step of the way,” Munoz said. “I’m excited and motivated by the challenge ahead and want to continue Hyundai’s growth trajectory and laser-focus on exceeding customer expectations. It truly is a great time to be with Hyundai.”
The company did not name a successor for Munoz. More

Shares of vaccine makers fell as President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. 
Health policy experts have said a second Trump term could allow Kennedy to elevate anti-vaccine rhetoric.
Shares of Moderna, Novavax, Pfizer, BioNTech and GSK closed lower on Thursday.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Phoenix on Aug. 23, 2024.
Thomas Machowicz | Reuters

Shares of vaccine makers fell Thursday as President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. 
The stocks fell in the final hour of trading as reports emerged about Trump’s expected pick. Moderna’s stock closed more than 5% lower on Thursday, shares of Novavax fell more than 7% and Pfizer’s stock ended more than 2% lower.

Shares of BioNTech, the German drugmaker that helped develop a Covid vaccine with Pfizer, closed more than 6% lower. British drugmaker GSK, which makes flu shots and several other vaccines, closed roughly 2% lower.
Shares of those companies dipped further in extended trading as Trump confirmed his pick in a post on his platform Truth Social.
Health policy experts have said a second Trump term could allow Kennedy to elevate anti-vaccine rhetoric, which could deter more Americans from receiving Covid shots and routine immunizations that have for decades saved millions of lives and prevented debilitating illnesses.
Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax are still recovering from falling Covid vaccination rates in the U.S., which have dented their profits over the past two years. 
Kennedy’s track record as a vaccine skeptic is extensive. He has long made misleading and false statements about the safety of shots, such as claiming they are linked to autism despite numerous studies going back decades that debunk the association.
Kennedy is the founder of the nonprofit Children’s Health Defense, the most well-funded anti-vaccine organization in the country.

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For Disney’s fiscal 2025, streaming will generate enough operating income to offset the parallel decline in operating income from linear TV, CFO Hugh Johnston said in an interview.
Disney projects entertainment direct-to-consumer operating income will increase by about $875 million next year over fiscal year 2024.
Disney’s results suggest streaming may be a more robust business than some investors previously believed.

The Disney+ website on a laptop computer in the Brooklyn borough of New York, US, on Monday, July 18, 2022.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Disney might be proving the world’s most famous investor wrong.
Last year, Warren Buffett, “The Oracle of Omaha,” told CNBC’s Becky Quick he had no faith in the business of streaming video.

“Streaming … it’s not really a very good business,” Buffett said on April 12, 2023. “The shareholders really haven’t done that great over time.”
Buffett wasn’t lying. Legacy media companies such as Comcast’s NBCUniversal, Disney, Paramount Global and Warner Bros. Discovery have all underperformed the S&P 500 since Jan. 1, 2022, largely due to billions of dollars lost while launching subscription streaming services.

But Disney’s quarterly earnings results, released Thursday, indicate streaming is about to become a much better business.
A combination of pulling back on content spending and steadily increasing Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ subscribers hasn’t just turned streaming into a profitable business, it’s actually turned streaming into an even better business than traditional TV, according to Disney Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston.
For Disney’s fiscal 2025, streaming will generate enough operating income to offset the parallel decline in operating income from linear TV, Johnston said in an interview.

Disney projects entertainment direct-to-consumer operating income will increase by about $875 million next year over fiscal year 2024. That would put the division at over $1 billion in operating income for the coming fiscal year.
“I think we’re well-positioned if [consumers] decide to stay in linear for longer, and I think we’re well-positioned if they decide to move over to the streaming side,” Johnston said during Disney’s earnings conference call.
Those results are borne out in Disney’s earnings. Disney’s combined streaming businesses improved their profitability in the company’s fiscal fourth quarter, posting operating income of $321 million. For the year, Disney’s entertainment streaming platforms (Disney+ and Hulu) made $143 million in operating income. Last year, the entertainment platforms lost $2.5 billion.

Streaming strikes back

The bearishness toward traditional media hasn’t been isolated to streaming’s near-term losses.
Investors have also largely bought into the premise that subscription streaming video won’t be able to replace the billions in profit from linear TV, cable and broadcast, that the companies have lived off for decades.
The traditional pay-TV business has been phenomenal for many reasons, but two stand out: Media companies get paid monthly regardless of whether people actually watch, and churn rates for traditional pay TV were traditionally extremely low — at least, until the invention of streaming. In the last decade, tens of millions of Americans have canceled their cable TV subscriptions.
In the new streaming era, it’s far easier to cancel a particular service at any given time. Instead of having to cancel TV entertainment in its entirety, a consumer can easily pick and choose from a handful of streaming services in any given month.
Consequently, media companies no longer religiously get paid each month. Now, only consumers that want specific programming are paying, and only for as long as they want it.Still, Disney’s forecast suggests those headwinds don’t necessarily mean streaming will be unsuccessful as a long-term replacement product for cable. Future bundles or consolidation may help mitigate churn. As companies shift their best content to streaming, canceling services becomes less appealing.
Disney’s results follows strong streaming results last week from Warner Bros. Discovery. The company’s direct-to-consumer division delivered profit of $289 million, driven by an increase in global subscribers, higher advertising revenue and global average revenue per user. Warner Bros. Discovery’s flagship streaming service Max added 7.2 million global customers during the third quarter, bringing its total subscriber base to 110.5 million.
The end result may be a media industry that emerges from a rough few years stronger than investors feared. Disney shares rose 6.2% Thursday.
Disclosure: Comcast’s NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC. More

Billionaire Tilman Fertitta has increased his ownership stake in Wynn Resorts to 9.9%, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The filing indicates a passive position, though multiple people familiar with the matter tell CNBC they suspect Fertitta will be demanding.
Fertitta replaces co-founder Elaine Wynn as the company’s largest shareholder.

The new Wynn Casino and Lisboa Casino in Macao, China.
Bob Henry | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Billionaire Tilman Fertitta has increased his ownership stake in Wynn Resorts to 9.9%, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The filing indicates a passive position, though multiple people familiar with the matter tell CNBC they suspect Fertitta will be demanding.

Wynn’s share price popped 9% Thursday on the news, in line with its 200-day moving average. Over 20 years, the stock has exhibited lots of volatility but not as much sustained growth.

Stock chart icon

Wynn stock against Marriott and Hilton.

The stock is up roughly 57% over two decades, compared to Marriott’s 20-year gains of more than 950%. Hilton, which went public in 2013, is up more than 500% since its debut.
Wynn Resorts and Fertitta declined to comment on his increased stake.
Fertitta, CEO of Landry’s, is the owner of the Houston Rockets as well as eight Golden Nugget casinos across the U.S., including downtown Las Vegas. He is planning a new 43-story casino resort on the Las Vegas Strip.
He is frequently outspoken about issues that affect Las Vegas, whether it is Formula One or historic union wage contracts. Wynn Las Vegas is the top-of-the-line, uber-luxurious resort on the Strip, and it owns two high-end resorts in Macao. Its customers are wealthier and generally shop and gamble more.

But Wynn’s third-quarter earnings missed expectations for revenue and adjusted property EBITDA in both Macao and Las Vegas, which began to show some softening after a long, hot streak.
Analysts occasionally question the company about plans to develop or sell 162 acres in Las Vegas, including a 128 acre golf course and a 38 acre parcel across from its resort complex on the Strip.
In a June note, Jefferies analyst David Katz estimated the land was worth slightly more than $2 billion, but noted there is “no evident plan for development or sale.”
Some investors have privately grumbled that Wynn is blowing its luxury brand power and best-in-class hospitality status domestically while it focuses on trying to establish a new gaming market in the Middle East.
During the company’s third-quarter earnings call earlier this month, at an investor day in October and in an interview with CNBC, Wynn CEO Craig Billings kept the spotlight on the opportunities he sees in the United Arab Emirates.
Wynn Resorts has a 40% stake in a new integrated casino resort being built in Ras Al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates for a projected cost of $5.1 billion.
Today the stock trades for roughly 70% more than when Fertitta bought 6.9 million shares at about $54 apiece in 2022. That position gave him a 6.2% stake in the company and made him the second-largest individual shareholder in Wynn, after co-founder Elaine Wynn.
Now with his 9.9% stake, Fertitta supplants Elaine Wynn, who co-founded the company with her then-husband Steve Wynn and left its board of directors at the end of 2020.

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