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    How Ares is capitalizing on the ‘retail revolution’ in alternative assets

    Ares Management CEO Michael Arougheti told CNBC it’s seeing better-than-expected momentum among individual, wealthy investors.
    Ares has 185 people in 10 offices globally who are working on product development and client education, he said.
    “This narrative of weaker products being reserved for retail is just not true,” Arougheti said in an interview.

    A version of this article appeared in CNBC’s Inside Alts newsletter, a guide to the fast-growing world of alternative investments, from private equity and private credit to hedge funds and venture capital. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
    At Ares Management’s analyst day last month, the alternative asset manager quietly bumped up its three-year fundraising targets by 25%.

    CEO Michael Arougheti told CNBC the change was due to better-than-expected momentum among individual, wealthy investors.
    A recent survey by State Street found that the “retail revolution” will drive more than half of the private market flows in the next few years, a seismic shift from traditional sources of fundraising, which historically comprised institutional investors. Ares has been one of the key beneficiaries of the trend, having offered different types of vehicles for retail for more than two decades.
    “What’s changed now is the quality of the product, the scale of the product – the investment that we’ve made in servicing the products,” Arougheti said in an interview.
    Ares has 185 people in 10 offices globally who are working on product development and client education, he said. The firm already has more than $50 billion in assets under management from semiliquid vehicles targeted at retail. Arougheti said Ares’ market share of the retail segment is approaching 10%. 

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    As the momentum for retail allocation in alternatives builds, some have cautioned that managers will funnel weaker deals toward individual investors, while reserving better assets for institutional investors. A recent paper by Harvard University found that there’s a performance disadvantage among funds sold more broadly, which the author said, “raises the possibility that products with poor performance are being channeled to investors who are less wealthy and less financially sophisticated.” 

    “This narrative of weaker products being reserved for retail is just not true,” Arougheti said, adding that only the largest managers with the “highest quality” deals have enough scale to build their wealth platforms.
    “We actually allocate our investments based on available capital, and so a lot of the investments that are finding their way into our institutional client portfolios are also finding their way into our wealth product,” Arougheti said. “And so they’re growing together.”
    Ares had about $572 billion in assets under management as of the end of June, with two-thirds in credit. The firm has investments in more than 3,000 middle-market companies.

    As for the value proposition – why individual investors would be so interested in alternatives right now, especially when public equities have returned so much in recent years – Arougheti said he thinks it’s a response to the increasing concentration in the liquid securities. 
    “It’s actually pretty difficult to navigate a diversified portfolio in the public markets,” Arougheti said. “They’re looking for diversified and noncorrelated equity exposure, so private equity, real estate, etc.” 
    The retail revolution that Ares is so bullish on doesn’t even account for the potential opening up of 401(k) retirement accounts for greater allocation toward alternatives, which could bolster the firm’s AUM targets even more. But Arougheti was somewhat skeptical about how quickly this market would move the needle for the industry. 
    “I actually don’t think we’ll see change in behavior until there’s a change in regulation,” he said. 
    “And the challenge with that – that sector – which is almost to the disadvantage of the end client, is it’s very, very fee-sensitive, and the narrow definition of fiduciary duty is cost, not what my unit of return delivered for that cost,” Arougheti said. “So, almost by definition, structurally, the market is not geared to alts, where fees are higher, but you pay for a much higher net return. So until you give the plan sponsors that comfort that they’re free of litigation risk for having not pursued their fiduciary duty, I think it’s going to be hard.” 
    Still, as the industry evolves toward the masses, Arougheti encouraged a rethinking of the term “alternative.” 
    “There’s nothing ‘alternative’ about what we do anymore, right?” he said. “The biggest misconception is that somehow or another, the private markets are creating investment exposures that otherwise wouldn’t exist, that we’re creating demand for capital that otherwise wouldn’t exist, as opposed to just understanding this is the natural evolution and innovation in the capital markets that we’ve seen for generations.”  More

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    World Bank raises China growth forecast to 4.8% despite U.S. trade tensions

    The World Bank predicts China’s economy will grow by 4.8% this year.
    It had forecast 4% growth in April, when the U.S. briefly ramped up tariffs on Chinese imports to more than 100%.
    The bank projects China’s GDP growth to ease to 4.2% in 2026, partly due to a slowdown in exports growth.

    Tourists visit the Huangguoshu Waterfall of “Monkey King” fame in China’s Guizhou province on Oct. 5, 2025, during a week-long public holiday.
    Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

    BEIJING — The World Bank on Tuesday raised its 2025 growth forecast for China as part of an overall boost in projections for East Asia and the Pacific, after a summer that saw U.S. tariff-led uncertainty rock the global economy.
    The World Bank now projects China’s economy to expand by 4.8%, compared with 4% predicted in April. The new forecast is closer to China’s official target of around 5% growth in gross domestic product in 2025.

    The economists did not provide a specific reason for the change in forecast from April, but noted that China’s economy has benefited from government support that could fade next year.
    Trade tensions between China and the U.S. escalated in April, temporarily sending U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to well over 100% before the two countries reached a trade truce — now in effect until mid-November. For now, U.S. tariffs on China are 57.6%, more than double where they were at the start of the year.
    China ramped up stimulus in late 2024 and has maintained targeted consumer trade-in programs this year to support retail sales. The country’s exports, a major driver of its growth, have continued to rise so far this year, as shipments to Southeast Asia and Europe have offset a sharp decline in exports to the U.S. Businesses ramping up orders ahead of higher tariffs have also helped support China’s exports.
    Growth in exports helped China offset drags on domestic growth such as the ongoing real estate slump and tepid consumer spending. But that momentum is expected to slow.
    The World Bank projects China’s GDP growth to ease to 4.2% in 2026, partly due to slower exports growth. Economists also anticipate that Beijing will tone down stimulus to keep public debt levels from rising too quickly, while China’s overall economic growth slows compared with its rapid expansion in past years.

    China’s retail sales rose just 3.4% in August from a year ago, missing analysts’ expectations. Investment in real estate fell further, down by 12.9% for the first eight months of the year, versus a 12% drop for the first seven months.
    Preliminary figures for the eight-day “Golden Week” holiday that wraps up Wednesday also pointed to sluggish consumer spending.
    While average daily domestic passenger trips rose 5.4% year-on-year to 296 million for the Oct. 1 to 5 period, that growth was much slower than the 7.9% seen during the May 1 to 5 public holiday, Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday, citing official data.
    “Actual consumption growth could be even weaker than the data suggest,” Lu said, noting that due to the agrarian calendar, this year’s Golden Week combined what have typically been two public holidays.
    Oct. 1 is China’s National Day, while a traditional Mid-Autumn Festival fell on Oct. 6 this year, versus Sept. 17 last year. As a result, China’s Golden Week ran from Oct. 1 to 8 this year, versus Oct. 1 to 7 last year.
    The economists pointed out that one out of every seven young people in China is unemployed, while the country faces challenges from technological disruption and an aging population. The World Bank also noted that startups in China only increase employment fourfold, versus sevenfold in the U.S., highlighting that a differentiating factor was the presence of state-owned enterprises in China versus North America.
    A decline in China’s GDP by 1 percentage point lowers growth in the rest of developing East Asia and Pacific by 0.3 percentage points, according to World Bank estimates. With the China GDP upgrade, the region is expected to expand by 4.8% this year, versus 4% forecast earlier this year, according to the World Bank.
    In June, the World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, largely due to trade uncertainty, noting it would be the slowest expansion since 2008, excluding global recessions. More

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    Constellation Brands reiterates lower full-year guidance

    Modelo owner Constellation Brands reported fiscal second-quarter earnings Monday, reiterating a lower full-year guidance due to macroeconomic headwinds.
    The company beat Wall Street’s estimates for revenue and earnings per share.
    Shares of the company rose slightly following the report.

    Modelo beer is displayed on a shelf at a Safeway store on Oct. 6, 2025 in San Anselmo, California.
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    Modelo owner Constellation Brands beat on the top and bottom lines in its fiscal second-quarter earnings report on Monday and reiterated its lowered full-year guidance due to macroeconomic headwinds.
    Shares of the company rose roughly 3% in extended trading.

    Here’s how the company performed in the second quarter, compared with what Wall Street was expecting based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

    Earnings per share: $3.63 adjusted vs. $3.38 expected
    Revenue: $2.48 billion vs. $2.46 billion expected

    For the period ending Aug. 31, the company reported net income of $466 million, or $2.65 per share, compared with a loss of $1.2 billion, or $6.59, the year prior. Excluding costs for restructuring and other items, the brewer reported earnings of $3.63 per share.
    Constellation’s net sales dropped 15% from the same period last year to $2.48 billion, and the company’s operating margin fell 200 basis points due in part to aluminum tariffs.
    “While we continue to navigate a challenging socioeconomic environment that has dampened consumer demand, our teams remain focused on executing against our strategic objectives, including driving distribution gains, disciplined innovation and investing behind our brands,” CEO Bill Newlands said in a statement.
    In September, Constellation announced it was slashing its full fiscal year guidance due to a “challenging macroeconomic environment.” It cut its comparable earnings per share outlook to a range of $11.30 to $11.60, down from $12.60 to $12.90, and reaffirmed that outlook in Monday’s report.

    The company also reiterated its previous estimate of organic net sales falling 4% to 6% for fiscal 2026, down from a previous expectation of 1% growth to a 2% decline.
    Constellation also previously identified a trend of lower demand from Hispanic consumers, which it said was caused by concerns about President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and potential job losses. 
    Constellation executives will hold a call with analysts tomorrow at 8 a.m. ET. More

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    The 2025 box office is headed for its best post-Covid haul as winter releases heat up

    The 2025 box office is poised to become the highest-grossing year in the post-pandemic era.
    Fueling this haul is the upcoming releases of “Wicked: For Good,” “Zootopia 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
    Momentum from these late 2025 releases are expected to roll over to 2026.

    “Zootopia 2”, “Wicked: For Good”, and “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
    Courtesy: Disney Enterprises, Inc. | Universal Pictures

    The box office is about to heat up.
    After a sizzling summer of action-packed blockbuster fare, theatrical momentum stalled in the fall. But, the winter slate is poised to deliver a consistent spark of ticket sales, pushing the 2025 domestical haul above $9 billion and toward a post-pandemic high, according to the latest estimates.

    “The box office year-to-date domestically is running about 4% ahead of last year and, if we can expand on that lead, we could be looking at the biggest post-pandemic year for movies,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.
    Heading into the fourth quarter, the domestic box office has tallied $6.5 billion in ticket sales this year, up from $6.3 billion a year prior, according to data from Comscore. The full-year record the box office is looking to surpass is $9.05 billion, which was tallied in 2023.
    Analysts at Macquarie foresee Disney’s “Tron: Ares” as the first domino to fall, creating momentum throughout the rest of the year. Then comes Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” and Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” both of which Macquarie expects to top $250 million in domestic ticket sales. The year is capped with “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
    “Fall typically sees its ups and downs, but the trifecta formed by ‘Wicked: For Good,’ ‘Zootopia 2,’ and ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ during the holiday season cannot be overstated in its significance,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “Plenty of other films will contribute to the aggregate numbers as crucial counter-programmers and mid-range tentpoles.”
    These other releases include Universal’s “Black Phone 2,” Disney and 20th Studio’s “Predator: Badlands,” Paramount’s “The Running Man” and Universal’s “Five Nights at Freddy’s 2.”

    Eric Handler of Roth Capital Partners projects the fourth-quarter box office to reach $2.5 billion, which would be a 7% jump year over year. That would put full-year revenue at close to $9.1 billion, 5% higher than 2024.
    Macquarie’s expectations are even higher, with the financial group estimating $2.7 billion for the quarter and a $9.2 billion year.
    “And we expect the box office will grow further in 2026, driven by spillover from ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ and a slate of blockbusters and popular IP such as ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie,’ ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu,’ ‘Toy Story 5,’ ‘Minions 3,’ ‘Moana,’ ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ ‘Avengers: Doomsday,’ and ‘Dune: Part Three,'” Macquarie’s team wrote.
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of Fandango and NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC. Versant would become the new parent company of Fandango and CNBC upon Comcast’s planned spinoff of Versant. More

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    Nike’s turnaround will ‘take a while’ amid stock slump, CEO Elliott Hill says

    Nike CEO Elliott Hill sat down with CNBC at the company’s Beaverton, Oregon, headquarters to discuss the sneaker giant’s turnaround plan and paths for growth.
    While certain parts of the business are showing signs of progress, it will “take a while” for the company to return to profitable growth, Hill told CNBC’s Sara Eisen.
    Hill detailed his efforts to win back wholesale partners and why the company is returning to a corporate structure that’s divided by sport.

    Nike’s turnaround plan is showing early signs of progress, but it will “take a while” for the company to return to profitable growth, CEO Elliott Hill said in an interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen aired Monday.
    “When we come to work we think about three brands, and then multiple sports under each brand and then 190 countries that roll up to our four geographies,” Hill said in a sit-down interview from the company’s headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon. “Each brand times sport, and each [geography] times country, they’re at different stages of the evolution.” 

    When asked when investors can expect Nike to get back to mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth with strong margins, Hill acknowledged that “it’ll take time.” But he said the company has “the path” to get there. 
    “It’s going to take a while,” said Hill. “It’s not linear. But it is a portfolio, and ultimately the goal is to have the entire portfolio all working together to drive the revenue and the profit that we hope to deliver for all of our investors.” 
    The comments come nearly a year into Hill’s tenure as CEO. Investors are looking for more clarity into how well his strategy to turn around the company is working as quarterly sales and profits have declined for much of the last year.

    Elliott Hill, CEO of Nike, speaking with CNBC.

    The struggles have shown in Nike’s stock, which has fallen about 12% in the last year. While Wall Street knows how Hill plans to fix the company, it is still unclear how long it will take.
    Since Hill took over last October, he’s worked to reverse many of the strategies implemented by his predecessor, former eBay CEO John Donahoe, who tried to sell more shoes and apparel directly to shoppers. Instead of focusing on sales only through Nike’s website and stores, Hill is moving back to wholesalers and working to win back shelf space that competitors have taken over. 

    During his interview with Eisen, Hill said Donahoe’s focus on digital sales made sense during the Covid pandemic, but that changed when the world started to open up again. 
    “When Covid hit, supply got constrained, demand goes up and I think the team did what I think anybody would do. Shift product over to digital commerce and all of a sudden that takes off. Double revenue, double margins and it’s a winning strategy,” said Hill.
    “Then of course everything normalized,” he said. “Physical retail started to open back up and we continued on with that strategy … and I think over time it ended up hurting the brand because there’s a certain set of consumers that want to shop choice, and they want to shop across each of the different channels of distribution.” 
    Hill said the company has made strides toward taking back the shelf space it lost. Nike is also trying fresh partners, such as Aritzia, to win over new, female shoppers. 
    Hill is also changing the way the business is segmented and returning it to its historical roots. Instead of dividing the company into women’s, men’s and kid’s, Donahoe’s strategy to drive lifestyle sales, Hill is reworking the corporate structure so the company’s departments are focused on individual sports. 
    “They have small cross-functional teams in each of those segments, if you will, of business and the idea is that the consumers in each of those segments and the competition in each of those segments is different and so by having these small cross-functional teams … that’s really helped us get sharp in a couple of areas,” said Hill.
    Under Donahoe, Nike faced criticism for falling behind on innovation and losing market share because it was so focused on driving sales of classic styles, like the Air Force 1 and Nike Dunks. Changing the company structure is one of the ways Hill plans to reignite innovation because the teams will be squarely focused on the individual needs of different athletes, allowing them to create and deliver better products for those consumers. 
    Many industry insiders expect Nike to make a complete recovery, but larger macroeconomic challenges will make a tough turnaround that much harder. 
    When reporting fiscal first-quarter earnings last week, Nike warned that it now expects tariffs to cost it $1.5 billion in its current fiscal year, up from the $1 billion it projected in June. Those costs are expected to impact its gross margin by 1.2 percentage points in its current fiscal year, up from the 0.75 percentage point it originally forecast. 
    Hill told Eisen the company is working to offset the cost of tariffs by leaning on its suppliers, factories and retail partners. Nike also recently implemented certain price increases, which could help blunt the impact of the new duties. 
    Correction: This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Aritzia. More

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    Paramount Skydance to acquire Bari Weiss-founded Free Press

    Paramount Skydance has agreed to acquire online publication The Free Press.
    The publication was co-founded and launched in 2021 by Bari Weiss, who previously worked for the opinion page of The New York Times.
    Weiss will lead CBS News as its new editor-in-chief.

    CBS News studio at Times Square in Manhattan, New York, United States of America, on July 6th, 2024.
    Beata Zawrzel | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Paramount Skydance said Monday it has agreed to acquire online publication The Free Press, naming its co-founder and CEO, Bari Weiss, as CBS News’ editor-in-chief.
    The digital upstart publication, which was launched by Weiss in 2021, will be joined with CBS News. Paramount said Monday The Free Press has 1.5 million subscribers, more than 170,000 of which are paid subscriptions.

    Weiss founded The Free Press after resigning from The New York Times’ opinion desk in 2020.
    “Weiss will shape editorial priorities, champion core values across platforms, and lead innovation in how the organization reports and delivers the news,” Paramount said in a news release.
    The acquisition, which Paramount Skydance reportedly paid $150 million for, is the latest in a string of strategic moves by CEO David Ellison since the merger of Paramount and Skydance was completed in August.
    It also comes as Paramount and CBS find their way out of a political line of fire, following a $16 million settlement with President Donald Trump over a “60 Minutes” interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
    In light of the lawsuit, Paramount agreed to hire an ombudsman for CBS News with the goal of examining its work and investigating political bias complaints. And shortly after the settlement, the long-awaited merger between Paramount and Skydance won necessary federal approval.

    In a memo to staff on Monday, Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison addressed the political environment in the U.S. — and how it’s weighed on the media.
    “I think we can all agree that the temperature of our nation’s social discourse feels higher than ever. Too often, the space once reserved for thoughtful dialogue has been consumed by partisan division and hostile disputes,” Ellison said in the memo. “If we are to move forward, we must find our way back to the ideals that shaped both our country and civilization itself: open exchange of ideas, vigorous yet respectful debate, and a genuine regard for the beliefs and traditions of others.”
    “This challenge extends to the media. While it was founded with the mission of informing the public and fostering discussion on the issues of the day, too often it has become a platform that amplifies the very partisanship tearing our society apart,” Ellison said in the memo.
    Weiss, who will report to Ellison, also sent a note to CBS News staffers on Monday.
    “My goal in the coming days and weeks is to get to know you. I want to hear from you about what’s working, what isn’t, and your thoughts on how we can make CBS News the most trusted news organization in America and the world,” Weiss said in her memo. “I’ll approach it the way any reporter would—with an open mind, a fresh notebook, and an urgent deadline.”

    Paramount playbook

    US producer David Ellison attends Apple’s “Fountain of Youth” premiere at the American Museum of Natural History in New York on May 19, 2025.
    Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images

    Soon after Paramount Skydance closed their tie-up and Ellison took the helm, the company announced a seven year, $7.7 billion media rights deal to become the exclusive home in the U.S. for TKO Group’s UFC mixed martial arts organization beginning in 2026.
    More recently, the company announced a long term media rights deal beginning in 2026 with Zuffa Boxing, the new promotion formed by TKO and Saudi Arabia entertainment conglomerate Sela.
    Bulking up Paramount’s content slate has also been a key to the company’s recent moves.
    Ellison signed a deal that secured the rights to develop, produce and distribute a live-action feature film based on Activision’s Call of Duty video game franchise. He also entered into a three-year distribution deal with Legendary. And, the company is bringing on the creative team of Matt and Ross Duffer, better known as the Duffer Brothers — creators of the Netflix hit “Stranger Things.”
    Paramount is also working with an investment bank and exploring a bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, CNBC previously reported.
    In addition, Ellison also been making some noteworthy hires to his staff since the merger closed.
    In late September Paramount announced the appointment of Makan Delrahim, who was part of the legal firm that advised Skydance during the merger process, as chief legal officer. Delrahim is also the former assistant attorney general who oversaw the U.S. Department of Justice’s antitrust division during Trump’s first administration, when Disney’s acquisition of Fox Corp.’s 21st Century Fox assets was completed.
    The company has also added Dennis Cinelli, who currently serves as CFO of Scale AI, as an independent director to its board; and hired Dane Glasgow as its chief product officer. Glasgow had previously worked at Meta, Google, eBay and Microsoft.
    Ellison has said there will be a focus on AI and tech advancements for the company’s streaming services, as well as in other parts of the company. More

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    Verizon names former PayPal boss Dan Schulman as new CEO, replacing Hans Vestberg

    Verizon on Monday named former PayPal CEO Dan Schulman as the company’s new CEO, effective immediately.
    Schulman replaces Hans Vestberg, who led the company since 2018.
    In its announcement, Verizon reiterated its previous financial guidance for full-year 2025.

    Dan Schulman, CEO, Paypal speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 23, 2020.
    Adam Galacia | CNBC

    Verizon announced on Monday that the board of directors has appointed former PayPal CEO Dan Schulman as the company’s new CEO.
    Schulman replaces Hans Vestberg, who had led the company since 2018.

    Shares of the company rose slightly in premarket trading following the announcement.
    Verizon said Vestberg will remain on the board of directors until the 2026 annual meeting and will serve as a special advisor through Oct. 4, 2026, to ensure a smooth transition and close the deal to acquire Frontier Communications.
    Verizon on Monday also announced that Mark Bertolini would be chairman of the company’s board of directors.
    “The board is thrilled to have Dan as Verizon’s next CEO, and embark on a new chapter of growth and sector leadership,” Bertolini said in a statement. “Dan is a seasoned and decisive leader with a unique set of experiences, and a proven record of transformative leadership and operational excellence. He is the right leader to chart Verizon’s next phase of increased customer focus and financial growth.”
    At PayPal, Schulman grew the company’s revenue from $8 billion to $30 billion, according to the announcement, and added “hundreds of millions” of new customers for the global payments platform. He has served on Verizon’s board of directors since 2018.

    “Verizon is at a critical juncture,” Schulman said in a statement. “We have a clear opportunity to redefine our trajectory, by growing our market share across all segments of the market, while delivering meaningful growth in our key financial metrics. We are going to maximize our value propositions, reduce our cost to serve, and optimize our capital allocation to delight our customers and deliver sustainable long-term growth for our shareholders.”
    Vestberg, who became CEO in 2018 and chairman of the board in 2019, is known for creating the company’s 5G network strategy. In a statement, he said now was “a good time to pass the baton” to Schulman.
    Verizon also reiterated its previously issued full-year 2025 financial guidance.
    In May, the Federal Communications Commission announced it was approving Verizon’s $20 billion deal to acquire Frontier, a fiber-optic internet provider. FCC chair Brendan Carr had probed Verizon for its diversity, equity and inclusion programs and said they could be a factor in the Frontier deal, but the agency gave its blessing to the merger when the company agreed to end those programs.
    Verizon said the deal will allow it to upgrade and expand Frontier’s network capabilities across the country by bringing more fiber to roughly 1 million American households. Verizon called the acquisition “a cornerstone” of its broadband expansion strategy. More

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    Paul Tudor Jones says ingredients are in place for massive rally before a ‘blow off’ top to bull market

    Paul Tudor Jones said today’s market is reminiscent of the setup leading up to the burst of the dotcom bubble in late 1999.
    The difference between now and 1999 is the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, Jones noted.
    He believes the bull market still has room to run before it reaches its final phase.

    Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones believes the conditions are set for a powerful surge in stock prices before the bull market tops out.
    “My guess is that I think all the ingredients are in place for some kind of a blow off,” Jones said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday. “History rhymes a lot, so I would think some version of it is going to happen again. If anything, now is so much more potentially explosive than 1999.”

    The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said today’s market is reminiscent of the setup leading up to the burst of the dotcom bubble in late 1999, with dramatic rallies in technology shares and heightened speculative behavior. Jones said the circular deals or vendor financing happening in the artificial intelligence space today also made him “nervous.”
    The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has bounced 117% from its April bottom to consecutive record highs. The rally has been driven by mega-cap tech giants, which have invested billions in AI and are being valued richly on the potential of this emerging era.

    Stock chart icon

    Nasdaq Composite year to date

    The difference between now and 1999 is the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, Jones noted. The Federal Reserve had just begun a new easing cycle, whereas rate hikes were on the way before the market top in 2000. The U.S. is now running a 6% budget deficit, while in 1999, there was a budget surplus in $99,000, Jones said.
    “That fiscal monetary combination is a brew that we haven’t seen since, I guess, the postwar period, early 50s,” he said.
    The longtime investor highlighted the tension at the heart of every late-stage bull market — the eager to capture outsized gains and the inevitability of a painful correction.

    “You have to get on and off the train pretty quick. If you just think about bull markets, the greatest price appreciations always [occurs] the 12 months preceding the top,” Jones said. “It kind of doubles whatever the annual averages, and before then, if you don’t play it, you’re missing out on the juice; if you do play it, you have to have really happy feet, because there will be a really, really bad end to it.”
    To be sure, Jones isn’t predicting an immediate downturn. He believes the bull market still has room to run before it reaches its final phase.
    “It will take a speculative frenzy for us to elevate those prices. It will take more retail buying. It’ll take more recruitment from a variety of others from long short hedge funds, from real money, etc.,” he said.
    He said he would own a combination of gold, cryptocurrencies and Nasdaq tech stocks between now and the end of the year to take advantage of the rally fueled by the fear of missing out.
    Jones shot to fame after he predicted and profited from the 1987 stock market crash. He is also the chairman of nonprofit Just Capital, which ranks public U.S. companies based on social and environmental metrics. More