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    Government shutdown means opportune timing for Neptune Flood IPO

    Neptune Insurance, the nation’s largest private flood insurance, goes public on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday.
    CEO Trevor Burgess sees opportunity to acquire customers while the government shutdown means the NFIP won’t process new applications or new claims.
    A growing number of U.S. properties are opting for insurance through private carriers rather than government insurance.

    The timing of Neptune Insurance Holdings’ IPO couldn’t be more opportune.
    Neptune, the nation’s largest private flood insurance, debuts on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday under the ticker symbol “NP.” The company sold more than 18 millions shares in its initial public offering at $20 apiece, and shares opened Wednesday at $22.50.

    The company’s first trade comes just as the U.S. government has shut down, meaning the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) isn’t accepting applications or processing new claims.
    “Neptune is open for business,” said Neptune chairman and CEO Trevor Burgess. “We can help the 1,300 people every day who are trying to close on their homes who need flood insurance or required to have flood insurance.”
    The National Association of Realtors has warned the government shutdown will delay real estate closings, because it prevents buyers from securing flood insurance that is necessary for some mortgages.
    A growing number of U.S. properties are opting for insurance through private carriers rather than government insurance.

    Neptune Insurance signage during the company’s initial public offering (IPO) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025.
    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Burgess said Neptune’s underwriting results are far outperforming the NFIP. Neptune offers flood insurance of up to $7 million rather than the NFIP’s $250,000 maximum.

    The company uses AI and other advanced technology to assess risk on individual properties, rather than looking at broad zip codes or whole neighborhoods.
    “We tell the truth to consumers,” Burgess said. “If we say that it’s $200 a year, it’s pretty low risk. If we say it’s $12,000, that’s pretty high risk. And if we say, ‘No, [we won’t cover you]’, you should move.”
    A 2024 study by the Joint Economic Committee found that flooding costs the nation between $179.8 billion and $496 billion each year. Nearly one third of NFIP flood insurance claims, according to federal data, come from outside high-risk flood areas. More

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    Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks

    A view of the U.S. Capitol is seen at sunset in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 30, 2025.
    Mehmet Eser | Afp | Getty Images

    Traders in prediction markets are betting that the U.S. government shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks, with odds rising that Congress will not reach a deal until at least mid-October.
    On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the current forecast implies the stoppage will last 11.1 days, up sharply in recent days as negotiations on Capitol Hill have stalled.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    On Polymarket, traders see the highest likelihood that the government won’t reopen until Oct. 15 or later, with that outcome carrying about a 38% probability. By comparison, odds of a resolution in the Oct. 6-9 window stand at 23%, while Oct. 10-14 carries 22%. Only 14% of traders expect lawmakers to strike a deal in the coming days, on Oct. 3-5.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    The full shutdown began early Wednesday morning after top Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, failed to agree on a short-term deal to keep the government funded. It sets the stage for the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and the shuttering of a slew of key programs and services.
    The length of a government closure matters as a longer-than-normal stoppage could weigh on an already fragile economy and put pressure on a stock market near record highs.
    Government shutdowns on average last about 14 days, based on data from Bank of America going back to 1990. While the S&P 500 has averaged a 1% increase during these events, a prolonged closure this time could rattle markets. More

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    Leon Cooperman says we’ve reached the stage of the bull market that Warren Buffett warned about

    Longtime investor Leon Cooperman believes we are in the late innings of a bull market where bubbles can form and risks rise, a stage of the cycle that Warren Buffett had warned about.
    The chair and CEO of the Omega Family Office read a quote from the “Oracle of Omaha” on CNBC’s “Money Movers” Wednesday, which he said fits neatly with what he’s seeing right now.

    “Once a bull market gets under way, and once you reach the point where everybody has made money no matter what system he or she followed, a crowd is attracted into the game that is responding not to interest rates and profits but simply to the fact that it seems a mistake to be out of stocks,” Buffett said in 1999, according to a Fortune Magazine article.
    Buffett believes bull markets often end not only when valuations are stretched, but also when there is irrational exuberance and when the rally is fueled by momentum.
    “It’s what’s going on now,” Cooperman said, adding that investors’ mood is very similar and valuation on artificial intelligence companies is “ridiculously high.”
    The S&P 500 has surged almost 40% since its April lows, returning to all-time highs. The rally has been led by mega-cap tech giants, which have invested billions in artificial intelligence and are being valued richly on the potential of this emerging era.

    Arrows pointing outwards

    The famous Buffett Indicator — the ratio of total U.S. stock market value to GDP — is also flashing one of the clearest signs of market exuberance. The gauge is sitting at record highs well above the peaks reached during the Dotcom Bubble as well as the pandemic-era rally in 2021, suggesting equity prices are running far ahead of the underlying economy. At 217%, it’s also beyond the level Buffett once said is “playing with fire.”

    While Cooperman thinks stocks could be risky with the late-cycle crowd behavior, he dislikes government bonds even more due to elevated inflation. Bonds pay fixed nominal interest, so higher inflation erodes their real returns.
    “Stocks are less risky than bonds at these levels,” he said. More

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    States sue Zillow, Redfin for alleged antitrust violation in online rental housing

    Attorneys general from New York, Virginia, Arizona, Connecticut and Washington filed a lawsuit against Redfin and Zillow on Wednesday.
    The suit alleges that the two companies schemed together to reduce competition in the online housing rental market.
    The lawsuit follows a similar one filed by the Federal Trade Commission this week.

    Rafael Henrique | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Attorneys general from five states sued Zillow and Redfin on Wednesday, alleging the companies schemed to stop competition in the online housing rental market.
    The lawsuit follows a similar one filed by the Federal Trade Commission on Tuesday.

    Officials from New York, Arizona, Connecticut, Washington and Virginia jointly filed the lawsuit Wednesday, citing a February deal between the two companies in which Zillow “paid Redfin $100 million to shut down its apartment rental advertising business and transfer its clients to Zillow,” New York Attorney General Letitia James’ office said in a news release.
    “This agreement is nothing more than an end run around competition that insulates Zillow from head-to-head competition on the merits with Redfin for customers advertising multifamily buildings,” the lawsuit reads.
    The suit alleges that the agreements violate federal antitrust laws and may harm renters using the companies’ resources. It also claims that Redfin fired hundreds of employees and then worked with Zillow to rehire some of them.
    “Millions of New Yorkers rely on online apartment listings to find an affordable and safe place to live,” James said in a statement. “Zillow’s attempt to shut down its competition could drive up costs for advertisers and leave renters with fewer options when searching for a new apartment.”
    Zillow, Redfin and CoStar, which owns Apartments.com, are the three largest players in the market and account for 85% of all market revenue, according to James’ office.

    The AGs are seeking an injunction to bar the two companies from allegedly scheming and proposes a possible restructuring of the businesses to maintain competition.
    “Redfin strongly disagrees with the allegations and is confident we will be vindicated by a court of law,” a spokesperson for the company said in a statement. “Our partnership with Zillow has given Redfin.com visitors access to more rental listings and our advertising customers access to more renters. By the end of 2024, it was clear that the existing number of Redfin advertising customers couldn’t justify the cost of maintaining our rentals sales force. Partnering with Zillow cut those costs and enabled us to invest more in rental-search innovations on Redfin.com, directly benefiting apartment seekers.”
    A Zillow spokesperson said the company maintains that its partnership with Redfin is “pro-competitive and pro-consumer by connecting property managers to more high-intent renters so they can fill their vacancies and more renters can get home.”
    Shares of Zillow and Redfin’s parent company Rocket Companies initially traded lower following the announcement, after each losing ground on Tuesday following the FTC’s lawsuit.
    The FTC’s complaint cites a similar alleged scheme between the two companies. Zillow and Redfin both disagreed with those allegations and said they remained confident in their partnership. More

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    Bitcoin rises as investors seek a global safe haven amid shutdown

    Cheng Xin | Getty Images

    Bitcoin ticked higher on Wednesday while most other risk assets fell after U.S. lawmakers failed to reach a government funding agreement, leading to a shutdown.
    The move showed the evolving view of the cryptocurrency to a store of value during dysfunctional geopolitical times, not unlike gold, which rose to a record on Wednesday.

    The flagship cryptocurrency traded around 2% higher on the day at $116,598.
    The U.S. government shut down at midnight after a Senate bill to keep the government funded did not garner enough votes to pass. This comes as Democrats led by Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries push for such a measure also extend enhanced Obamacare tax credits.

    Stock chart icon

    Bitcoin 5-day chart

    President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has threatened government benefit cuts for “large numbers of people” if an agreement isn’t reached soon.
    Stocks fell in early trading on Wednesday as traders assessed the ramifications of a government shutdown, with Wall Street perhaps looking to other assets for safety — including bitcoin. Gold also caught a bid, hitting a fresh all-time high.
    Bitcoin is up about 25% this year, rising as more Wall Street institutions embrace the cryptocurrency and global investors begin to view it as a reputable portfolio allocation and not just a quick trading vehicle. More

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    Trump’s threats against late-night TV could spell more trouble for advertisers

    Late-night programming is facing upheaval — namely the cancellation of “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” and the temporary suspension of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
    It’s shining a spotlight on ratings and revenue for late-night standouts and spurred questions of political influence.
    Late-night shows remain a valuable time slot for advertisers, especially for a younger demographic.

    A sign is displayed outside the El Capitan Entertainment Centre in Hollywood where the “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” show will be recorded on the first night the show will return to the ABC lineup on September 23, 2025 in Los Angeles, California.
    Mario Tama | Getty Images

    Late-night television has come under fire in recent months. That could leave advertisers and media companies, already clinging to what’s left on live TV, with an even smaller pool of options.
    The recent upheaval in late-night programming — namely the cancellation of “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” and the temporary suspension of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” — has shown a spotlight on ratings and revenue for late-night standouts and spurred questions of political influence.

    President Donald Trump, aggressively vocal about both Colbert’s and Kimmel’s bad fortune, has called for late-night shows on NBC hosted by Jimmy Fallon and Seth Meyers to be next on the chopping block.
    The result is not just uncertainty for viewers, TV executives and show staffs, but a pall over an advertising category that’s long been a staple of live TV.
    “Reaching a lot of people who are engaged because it’s live TV — or live-to-tape — is really important, and when you think about it from the media company’s perspective … the live moments are live sports on most given nights, the nightly news and late-night talk shows. That’s all you have,” said Kevin Krim, CEO of ad data firm EDO.
    “To the people who think late night doesn’t matter, they’re not thinking about the economics and the goals and the incentives of both the advertisers and the media companies. They’re ignoring some of the strategic value of the ecosystem,” he added.
    When Disney’s ABC pulled “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” off the air in September, it was unclear for days if or when the program would return. While Disney reinstated Kimmel less than a week later, more than 20% of the country still couldn’t watch the show for three additional days as two major broadcast station owners preempted the content.

    Colbert’s show will end next year after CBS parent Paramount announced in July it wouldn’t renew the program, citing financial considerations. The company has yet to reveal plans to fill the timeslot or give it back to the affiliate network owner.
    The fervor around Colbert’s upcoming cancellation caused a temporary ratings surge, and Kimmel’s suspension led the show to rake in millions of viewers upon its return — way above the average and a missed opportunity for advertisers in the markets where Kimmel was preempted.

    Late-night draw

    Traditional TV viewership has decreased as the audience opts for streaming. But live content still garners the biggest ratings, which includes late-night talk shows.
    As a result, late-night shows remain a valuable time slot for advertisers, especially for a younger demographic.
    “Late-night may not draw the same mass audiences it once did, but the viewers who tune in are highly intentional. For advertisers, that makes the space less about sheer scale and more about reaching a consistent, engaged community,” said Julie Clark, longtime ad industry executive and current senior vice president of media and entertainment at TransUnion.
    “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” was considered among the top 10 of ABC’s best vehicles for advertising reach, with the show delivering 2.5% of the network’s total ad exposures, or 11.8 billion national TV impressions, according to ad measurement firm iSpot.
    According to EDO, in order to generate as much ad impact as one ad in the late-night comedy broadcast programs — that’s Kimmel, Fallon, Meyers and Colbert — advertisers would need to air, on average, about four spots across competitive late-night programming this year. In this case, competitive late-night programming means everything aired on broadcast and cable TV, excluding the late-night hosts, during these time slots.
    Brands launching new products still get their best success from live TV commercials, according to ad industry executives.
    But advertisers have begun to cut back on ad spending in the face of macroeconomic headwinds and trade uncertainty. Recently, eMarketer and the Interactive Advertising Bureau each released reports projecting a pullback in ad spending, not just for TV but also digital and streaming, due to higher costs for companies brought on by tariffs.
    As advertisers trim spend and Trump puts late night in his crosshairs, the costs of these TV programs are coming under the microscope.

    Weighing the costs

    Media companies’ priorities have shifted to building out their streaming platforms in a push for profits. Pay TV networks still make the majority of the profits, but that number is shrinking.
    “Generally speaking, viewership of late night talk shows has been low compared to what they once were, but it’s less about a specific host or show and more about the shift in how people consume television,” said Vicky Chang, vice president of media at Tatari, a digital ad platform.
    Paramount said in July its move to end Colbert was “purely a financial decision against a challenging backdrop in late night.” Kimmel’s show will face another test when his contract comes up in 2026.
    “Late-night TV and daytime morning shows used to be two of the most profitable areas of TV, more so than sports because of the big sports rights fees. Networks typically made a huge amount of money,” said Jonathan Miller, longtime senior media industry executive who serves as CEO of Integrated Media. “Initially late-night shows weren’t very expensive, but the costs have gone up. But ratings have declined so it’s less profitable – and hosts still want a lot of money.”
    The focus for media companies is increasingly on content that guarantees big live audiences — by and large, live sports. This has led to hefty spending on sports rights over other kinds of content.
    Weeks after Colbert said this season would be his final, the newly merged Paramount Skydance announced a $7.7 billion media rights deal with UFC. ABC parent Disney and NBCUniversal last year signed a new media rights deal with the NBA worth $77 billion over 11 years.
    Media companies are also facing the daunting cost of rising political pressure.
    Trump and Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr have ramped up scrutiny of media companies during the president’s second term in office.
    Last year ABC News agreed to pay $15 million toward Trump’s presidential library to settle a lawsuit over comments by TV anchor George Stephanopoulos that Trump called defamatory. And this summer Paramount agreed to pay $16 million to settle a lawsuit over the editing of a CBS “60 Minutes” interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
    Weeks after that settlement, Paramount and Skydance won federal approval for their long-awaited merger.
    Colbert later referred to Paramount’s settlement as a “big fat bribe” during one of his show’s opening monologues. Soon after, the company announced the future end date of the late-night show.
    Disney’s suspension of Kimmel came on the heels of comments by the FCC’s Carr that suggested affiliate ABC stations could lose their broadcast licenses if they aired content that was against the “public interest.” Trump made a similar threat regarding the broadcast networks that he said are “against” him.
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC. Versant would become the new parent company of CNBC upon Comcast’s planned spinoff of Versant. More

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    Peloton revamps equipment, launches commercial unit and raises prices ahead of holidays

    Peloton is deploying a revamped product assortment that includes AI-powered camera tracking, better audio and a 360-degree swivel screen for its Bike+, Tread+ and Row+.
    The connected fitness company is raising the prices of its equipment by a few hundred dollars each, while its all-access membership will increase from $44 to $49.99 per month.
    Peloton is also launching a commercial equipment line of more durable versions of its hardware that are better suited for higher-use settings like hotels and apartment buildings.

    The entrance to the Peloton offices in Midtown Manhattan.
    Erik Mcgregor | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Peloton on Wednesday said it’s relaunching its product assortment, introducing a commercial equipment line and raising prices for both subscriptions and hardware as the company looks to reignite growth ahead of the holiday shopping season. 
    The revamped assortment includes better audio, processors and WiFi across all of its machines. Its refreshed plus line will feature an AI-powered tracking camera, speakers, a 360-degree swivel screen and hands free control, among other new features. 

    “The products are called the cross training series because we’re trying to help our members … understand that the right regimen for everyone, right routine for everyone is a mix of cardio and strength, and also investing in practices like yoga and meditation,” CEO Peter Stern told CNBC in an interview. “And so the products were designed, regardless of which one you buy, to facilitate that type of multi-disciplinary approach to wellness.” 
    The assortment-wide relaunch, the first since the company’s founding, comes as Peloton looks to return to sales growth after spending the last couple of years fixing its cost structure and staving off financial ruin. Now that the company has refinanced its debt and is again generating free cash flow, it is now focusing on its assortment in the hopes a better line up can bring in a wider swath of members.  
    “The products are going to be more expensive than the ones that we had before, but I think deliver a lot more value because now you’re getting a strength and a cardio solution,” said Stern. “Our holiday season is about to be upon us. We sell over 60% of the units across the whole year [during the holidays]… we’ll get a pretty clear sense of whether we’re hitting the mark in the next few months based on new people that we attract with this cool new stuff, and how we impact the behavior of existing members.” 
    Fitness junkies are increasingly prioritizing a combination of cardio and strength in their routines. That can be difficult with some of Peloton’s original machines because the screen doesn’t move and it can be clunky to switch between different types of classes.

    Peloton’s rep tracking feature.
    Courtesy: Peloton

    Nick Caldwell, Peloton’s chief product officer, said the revamped assortment seeks to address those issues and other common complaints with the original lineup. 

    “We’ve integrated our largest swivel screen across the entire plus line, 360 degrees of movement. It’s built for seamless transition from your cardio to different workout types. You can step off the Bike, Tread or Row, turn the screen, and you’ve got a front row view for strength, yoga, stretch or mobility work,” said Caldwell during a presentation at Peloton’s New York City studio. “We’ve also added voice control. You can adjust weight, skip moves, pause all with your voice, no more fumbling around with buttons while you’re trying to enjoy your workout.” 
    Those improvements will come with a higher price tag, which is welcome news to some on Wall Street that have said Peloton has taken too long to adjust its pricing. Most of its hardware will go up in price by a couple hundred dollars each, and its membership costs will rise, too. Peloton’s all-access membership will increase from $44 to $49.99 per month, its App+ will increase from $24 to $28.99 a month and its App One will rise from $12.99 to $15.99 per month.
    Here’s how much its hardware prices will increase:

    Bike: $1,695, up from $1,145 for refurbished or $1,495 new
    Bike+: $2,695, up from $2,495
    Tread: $3,295, up from $2,995
    Tread+: $6,695, up from $5,995

    Peloton’s original Row, priced at $3,295, will be replaced with its new Row+, which will cost $3,495.
    Peloton’s priorities have evolved in the last few years. Its machines have faced product safety issues and have long dragged on Peloton’s profitability because they’re expensive to make and a limited number of consumers are willing to buy them. Under former CEO Barry McCarthy, a former Spotify and Netflix executive, the company shifted focus away from its products and instead tried to build a business around its app, which failed to bring the growth management wanted. 
    Now, Stern, who co-founded Apple Fitness+ and previously oversaw Ford’s subscription services, aims to upgrade Peloton’s products in an effort to match its wide range of class types with its hardware.

    Betting big on business 

    Beyond revamping its direct-to-consumer business, Peloton is also unveiling a new commercial equipment line of more durable versions of its existing hardware.
    The Peloton Pro Series includes commercial versions of its Bike+, Tread+ and Row+ and will be marketed to places that have small gyms, like hotels, apartment buildings, corporate wellness centers and country clubs. 
    In recent years, Peloton has tried a few different strategies to build out the commercial side of its business through partnerships with hotels and universities. It’s now one of the faster growing parts of the business, said Dion Camp Sanders, Peloton’s chief commercial officer. 
    Still, some industry critics have said Peloton’s equipment isn’t appropriate for gym settings because the machines can’t handle higher frequency use, which prompted the company to create a more durable lineup. It also recently created a new commercial business unit, which combines Peloton’s offering with Precor, the fitness equipment company it acquired in 2020. 
    “That enables us to offer a pretty broad assortment of commercial fitness equipment and serve a broad set of … needs, both heavy use environments as well as lighter use environments,” said Camp Sanders. “We feel like it’s a pretty unique offering because we’re able to bring the best of Peloton’s aspirational experience across software and content … as well as the reliability, durability, quality that you get with Precor and Precor’s capabilities around service and repair.” 
    While revenue across Peloton was down in its most recent fiscal quarter, its commercial business unit has already returned to year-over-year growth and is expected to make up a larger percentage of total revenue over time, said Camp Sanders. It’s also a crucial marketing tool for the company, he added. 
    “Peloton equipment in hospitality settings are the most productive source of trial and lead generation for our consumer business. So a consumer may first encounter a Peloton in a premium hotel, take a ride, fall in love with the experience, and then they come into our system,” said Camp Sanders.
    “Once we start to put Pelotons in more and more commercial environments, we believe it can become a great, almost tip of the spear way to introduce consumers to the Peloton brand in more and more places, and then that can help us pull the consumer business along.” 
    Clarification: This article was updated to include the previous pricing for both refurbished and new Bikes. More

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    Ford CEO Jim Farley eyes further improvements after five years of ‘surprises,’ including investor returns

    Ford CEO Jim Farley marks his fifth anniversary as CEO at the automaker on Wednesday.
    Farley, 63, told CNBC that some recent changes in regulations from the Trump administration may be more beneficial than Wall Street expects.
    The automaker’s stock saw its lowest point under Farley when he took over the company in 2020. Its high during the past five years was more than $25 per share in January 2022. It closed Tuesday at $11.96 per share.

    Jim Farley, president and chief executive officer of Ford Motor Co., at Ford Pro Accelerate in Detroit, Michigan, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025.
    Jeff Kowalsky | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    DETROIT — “A lot of surprises.” That’s how Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley described his past five years leading the Detroit automaker, which he believes now has a solid foundation.
    For Farley, who marks his fifth anniversary as CEO on Wednesday, there have been industry-wide problems to deal with, as well as Ford-specific issues that the company is still in the process of navigating.

    The 63-year-old CEO has been working to make Ford more capital efficient, improve quality to reduce recall and warranty costs, and grow profit margins. That’s on top of industry-wide concerns about changing regulations, including tariffs, and shifting dynamics in electric and autonomous vehicle strategies.  
    “I think there were certainly a lot of surprises,” Farley told CNBC on the sidelines of a Ford event Wednesday in Detroit. “I would say what I’m most proud of is the team I built, together with [Ford Chair Bill Ford], as well as the foundation.”
    Farley said it’s still going to “take more work,” but the company has a good base after years of restructuring to perform better than it has under his tenure thus far. He’s optimistic about Ford continuing to improve the company’s overall performance and grow shareholder value.
    “We need to get more capital efficient. We need to have higher margins than 4% or 5%, and we we need to be more resilient to economic cycle,” Farley said, adding some recent changes in regulations from the Trump administration may be more beneficial than Wall Street expects for Ford.

    Investor ‘surprise’

    Despite the company’s ongoing challenges, Ford stock has been a surprising return for investors that have stuck with the automaker, which remains a “hold” based on average ratings of Wall Street analysts compiled by FactSet.

    While Ford’s stock price hasn’t increased as much as General Motors, Tesla or the overall S&P 500 index over the past five years, its total shareholder return — including a historically strong dividend — has made it a better investment than many of its peers.

    Stock chart icon

    Auto stocks since October 2020

    Ford’s total shareholder return over the past five years is roughly 134%, according to FactSet. That tops its largest global competitors other than Tesla – at 211% – over that time period.  
    GM, Ford’s closest rival, has a total return of about 113% over that time period — in line with the S&P 500, according to Factset. U.S.-listed shares of Toyota Motor, meanwhile, had a cumulative total return of 61%, while Honda Motor shares had a total return of 51%.
    On a per share basis, Ford stock closed Tuesday at $11.96 per share, up roughly 80% since Farley became CEO on Oct. 1, 2020. That compares with Tesla, up 211% to nearly $445; GM increasing 106% to roughly $61; and the overall S&P 500 index with a 99% increase since then.
    Farley has managed to woo Wall Street more than his two most recent predecessors — both of whom departed the company after double-digit losses in Ford’s stock price.
    Farley became the head of Ford amid more than decade lows in the company’s stock price following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. He took over from CEO Jim Hackett, who was recruited by Chair Bill Ford to replace longtime executive Mark Fields.
    Ford’s stock under Hackett, ex-CEO of furniture maker Steelcase, declined roughly 40% during his tenure from May 2017 through September 2020. It was slightly better under Fields’ roughly three-year tenure, when the stock declined around 35%.
    The stock’s best performance in the past 25 years occurred under CEO Alan Mulally, from September 2006 through July 2014, when shares jumped roughly 178%.
    Ford’s stock saw its lowest point under Farley when he took over the company in 2020. Its high during the past five years was $25.87 per share in January 2022, which occurred during the automaker’s push into electric vehicles such as the F-150 Lightning and notable upgrades.
    At that time, Ford’s market value topped $100 billion for the first time ever. It’s now less than half that around $48 billion, with the stock off 54% from that high. That compares to GM’s market cap of about $58 billion.

    Road ahead

    To achieve further upside, the company will need to address several factors, including quality and recall issues as well as costs — areas Farley has tried to combat for years.
    Ford has spent billions of dollars on warranty and recall problems in recent years, setting industry-wide records for the number of recalls in 2025.
    “To justify further upside for Ford it would require a multiple re-rating, which we believe may be a challenge,” Barclays analyst Dan Levy said in a Sept. 12 investor note, citing overhangs of structural costs, quality and recalls. “The ongoing cycle of recalls remains a challenge, and it’s unclear when this cycle might end.”
    While there have been improvements, the company remains at a disadvantage to its peers when it comes to costs.
    In 2023, Ford said it faced an overall cost disadvantage of between $7 billion and $8 billion, including $3 billion to $4 billion in material costs and $3 billion in structural costs, in addition to ongoing recall costs that the company considers “special items.”
    Since then, Ford has been working to trim that figure and improve its product and quality, including closing roughly $1.5 billion in its material cost gap last year. The company, executives said in July, is on track for another $1 billion reduction in costs this year, excluding tariff impacts — increasing that figure to $2.5 billion.
    “GM’s still better than us on cost, but we made a lot of progress this year,” Farley said Tuesday. “First time, without restructuring, we got a billion year-over-year cost down, which is a big deal.”

    Ford Motor President and CEO Jim Farley talks about the Mustang GTD during the press day of the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. September 13, 2023. 
    Rebecca Cook | Reuters

    Amid Ford’s pullback in costs, the company under Farley has altered its plans for all-electric vehicles, including taking a nearly $2 billion hit last year for delaying and canceling EVs.
    Farley on Tuesday said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if sales of EVs fell from a market share of around 10% to 12% in September — which is expected to be a record — to 5% this month after a federal incentive program for electric vehicles ended.
    Along with its self-inflicted cost issues, Ford has been managing tariffs, electrification and a volatile regulatory landscape. There have been a slew of federal changes but some, such as the elimination of national emissions penalties, are assisting the automaker in offsetting expected tariff impacts of $3 billion this year. 
    “We’ve got to work through a couple of these policy issues that could be a big tailwind for the company,” Farley said Tuesday, adding its commercial Pro business remains another highlight. “I don’t think the market has understood the benefit of the EPA rule change. It’s going to be big for our industry, for companies like Ford.” More