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    Trump’s brutal tariffs far outstrip any he has imposed before

    LESS THAN two weeks into his new administration, Donald Trump has placed large tariffs on America’s three biggest trading partners—raising the spectre of a global trade war. With executive orders signed on February 1st, he initiated tariffs of 25% on imports from both Canada and Mexico, and added levies of 10% to imports from China. Although Mr Trump had vowed to do just this, his actions will still represent a shock to the global economy. They will drive up prices, weigh on growth and sow uncertainty for businesses. Moreover, they are likely to be just the first salvo for Mr Trump, who is itching to implement tariffs that are both more aggressive and more global. More

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    Will 2025 finally mark the end of the IPO drought?

    More than a dozen initial public offerings have started trading so far in 2025, with the latest launching Thursday. But these launches have largely been met with tepid market reaction. The Nasdaq’s president still thinks this year could be the IPO market’s comeback year. 
    “I do think we start seeing things really start to pick up more in the back half of the year. But even the first half of the year, we’re starting to see some activity already,” Nasdaq president Nelson Griggs told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.

    Griggs compared the IPO market to a pendulum: It swings between waves of private and public investment. “We have a track record now,” Griggs said. “If you get three straight years of having limited capital raised in public markets, there’s an enormous pipeline.”
    But it’s not all simple launches in that IPO pipeline. Panera Brands has faced roadblock after roadblock for years in its attempts to go public. Twin Peaks, the sports bar that started trading Thursday, is a spinoff of Fat Brands intended to help pay off debt. Even the newer companies and AI players such as OpenAI seem to be thriving and raising money in the private market, giving them little incentive to go public.
    Griggs did acknowledge recent innovation in the private sector has allowed companies to access more liquidity and continue to raise funds without launching an IPO. 
    “There is a massive convergence of public and private, because even in the private space, you can now have access to more liquidity,” he said. “But if you want deep, sustained liquidity, you need to go public.”
    According to Griggs, that innovation does not mean that the private investment landscape has changed forever. He pointed to shifts in the markets as signs that the incentive to go public is returning. “Yields start doing better, valuation discounts kind of compress a bit, then the public markets get healthy again.”
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    We asked 10 travel agents: What’s the top under-the-radar destination? Here’s what they said

    Ten travel agents provided their picks for the most underhyped places to visit in the world.
    They weigh in with their rationale, as well as can’t-miss activities and the best times to go.

    Klaus Vedfelt | Digitalvision | Getty Images

    Looking for travel inspiration for 2025 and beyond?
    Look no further: CNBC asked 10 travel agents for their recommendations of the most underhyped destinations in the world. We compiled their written answers below, including can’t-miss activities for each locale and the best times of year to visit.

    You’ll also find average round-trip airfare from U.S. airports. The data, provided by travel app Hopper, is based on average fares that were available to book from Jan. 15 to Jan. 22. Prices are for May-July 2025, when most Americans plan to take their longer vacations, Hopper said.
    Travelers should aim to book over the next few weeks to score the best prices, it said.

    Albania

    Valbona National Park, Albania.
    Eduardo Fonseca Arraes | Moment | Getty Images

    Recommended by: Scott Abbott, managing director of Wilderness Travel
    Why to visit: “The Albanian Alps, also known as the Accursed Mountains, are a mountain range very few people know about, so are totally untouched by tourism. But have some of the most gorgeous and dramatic hikes in all of Europe. They also have guesthouses, mountain huts and hotels that feel like what the Alps were like 30-plus years ago, all owned by local families and run in a traditional way very authentic to the place and culture.”
    Can’t-miss: Hiking in Valbona Valley National Park

    Best time to go: June to September
    Average flight price: $926 to Tirana, Albania

    Ecuadorian cloud forest

    Cloud forest in Ecuador.
    Gerard Puigmal | Moment | Getty Images

    Recommended by: Allie Almario, South America and Galapagos expert at Premier Tours
    Why to visit: “Most people think of Costa Rica when they think of cloud forest, but Ecuador also has the lure of the Galapagos Islands, so it’s a terrific combination. About three hours from the capital city of Quito, Ecuador, the cloud forest feels primeval and otherworldly.
    “I love the Mashpi Eco Lodge, which is on the cusp of the rain and cloud forest in a private sanctuary. You’ve got incredibly rich biodiversity in this remote area — so remote the silence is almost deafening.”

    Can’t-miss: “Mashpi Lodge offers an activity called the Dragon Fly — it is up to an hour ride in an open air cable car (seating only for four guests at a time and a naturalist) where you soar over the tree canopy. You hear nothing but the wind and bird calls and the distant crash of waterfalls 500 feet below you. The butterflies are like confetti.”
    Best time to go: “Temperatures are pretty consistent throughout the year, but the main difference is rainy vs. dry season. Be prepared and either way, hiking in the cloud and rain forest will always be an adventure.”
    Average flight price: $588 to Quito, Ecuador

    Hamburg, Germany

    The canals of Hamburg, Germany
    Inigo Cia | Moment | Getty Images

    Recommended by: Kareem George, CEO of Culture Traveler
    Why to visit: “This ultra chic city is beautiful, sophisticated and extremely fun, with a variety of attractions for diverse ages and interests. The setting of the city is quite picturesque, nestled between the Elbe River and Alster Lake with many canals in between. It is an extremely walkable city with many historic attractions in the city center — such as the Rathaus (City Hall) and St. Nikolai Church — flanked by very cool neighborhoods such as the Speicherstadt (Warehouse) District, raucous St. Pauli and the quirky Schanzenviertel.”
    Can’t-miss: “Two of the many must-see attractions are the iconic Elbphilharmonie and the unique Miniatur Wunderland. Advance tickets are highly recommended for both.”
    Best time to go: “Hamburg is truly a destination for all seasons, however I particularly enjoyed a recent visit in the fall. The weather was perfect and it was wonderful to stroll along the lake, canals and to explore several neighborhoods on foot.”
    Average flight price: $1,090

    Kyushu, Japan

    A hot spring resort in Kurokawa Onsen, in Kyushu, Japan.
    Bohistock | Moment | Getty Images

    Recommended by: Kristin Braswell, founder of CrushGlobal Travel
    Why to visit: “Brimming with natural beauty at every corner, the southern island of Japan’s Kyushu may be overlooked for its popular northern neighbors like Tokyo and Kyoto, but it’s just as thrilling. Teeming with active volcanoes, palm-forested coastlines and bubbling onsens [hot springs] to retreat in, you will be enamored at every turn by the great, wide outdoors here. I highly recommend visiting the electric metropolis, Fukuoka, and Beppu, a mountainside jewel that is home to the most spring waters in the country.”
    Can’t-miss: “Visiting the famous onsens, particularly the Jigoku Circuit, which are all grouped and within walking distance. They are a sight to see.”
    Best time to go: “In spring, during cherry-blossom season and when the weather is pleasantly warm, or the fall, as the foliage begins to change with the seasons.”
    Average flight price: Top three airports in Kyushu, by popularity from U.S. cities based on search demand:

    Fukuoka: $1,326
    Nagasaki: $1,617
    Kumamoto: $1,594

    Lençóis Maranhenses National Park, Brazil

    Lençóis Maranhenses National Park, Brazil.
    Ignacio Palacios | Stone | Getty Images

    Recommended by: John Lansdell, planner at Trufflepig Travel
    Why to visit: “Remote and staggeringly beautiful, this park of sand dunes, mangroves and freshwater lagoons is prime for both relaxing in and exploring — swimming, dune walks and quad tours, birding, etc.”
    Can’t-miss: Swimming in the lagoons.
    Best time to go: “When to visit is subjective, but high season is July and August: Full lagoons; warm, not too hot; rains have passed, but the gateway towns are busy. Either side of these months may be the best bet, although the park itself, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, is vast and won’t feel overly busy in high season.”
    Average flight price: $1,069 to Sao Luis, Brazil

    The Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway)

    Old town and town square in Stockholm, Sweden.
    Leonardo Patrizi | E+ | Getty Images

    Recommended by: Melissa Wu, founder of Woodlyn Travel
    Why to visit: “The Nordics offer a great variety of destinations and activities, from the bustling nightlife and modern hotels of the cities, to rural pastimes like dog sledding and gazing up at the amazing northern lights. Classic Nordic activities like saunas and cold plunges share the stage with farm-to-table culinary extravaganzas. And the dollar is very strong right now, so you’ll get your money’s worth on some of the best seafood you’ll ever eat.”
    More from Personal Finance:What to expect from travel prices in 2025Demand for international trips drives ‘travel momentum’Here are 4 big ways to save on your next trip
    Can’t-miss: “Sweden’s capital and largest city, Stockholm, is known for a great museum scene with some truly unique attractions. The ABBA museum is a must-see for music lovers, while the Viking Museum and Vasa Museum, which houses a salvaged 17th century ship, pay tribute to Sweden’s history. And no visit would be complete without a stop at the Spiritmuseum, which celebrates Sweden’s drinking culture.”
    Best time to go: “The Nordics offer something unique no matter what time of year you visit. Long summer days give way to amazing fall foliage, followed by Christmas markets and ice hotels during the wintertime, and lovely island-hopping adventures in spring. Stockholm’s cherry-blossom trees bloom in mid- to late-April, with a gorgeous display that rivals more well-known (and crowded) spots like Washington, D.C. and Kyoto.”

    Average flight price:

    Copenhagen: $769
    Helsinki: $890
    Oslo: $826
    Stockholm: $801

    The Philippines

    Boats on the serene, azure waters near Coron Palawan, Philippines.
    Travelstoxphoto | Moment | Getty Images

    Recommended by: Tesa Totengco, founder and CEO of Travels with Tesa
    Why to visit: “Although it is very much a part of Southeast Asia, the Philippines is off to the side from the rest of its neighbors. I suggest devoting your entire trip to the country and island-hopping.
    “It has some of the most beautiful white powdery sand beaches (Palawan, Boracay, Bohol). There is a thriving contemporary art scene (Art Fair in Manila, held in February), and galleries supporting local artists (Silverlens, Artinformal, Gravity Art Space, Orange Project). In the capital, you can tour Old Manila and learn of the past from the 16th century Spanish colonialization right up to the American War liberating the country from Japanese occupation. There are pop-up shops throughout the year that celebrate Filipino design, and celebrated chefs with their own restaurants celebrating Filipino cuisine. It’s a predominantly English-speaking country, so the traveler will never feel lost.”

    Can’t-miss: “This country is made up of over 7,000 islands, each unique in culture, history and flavor. It’s best to make a ‘halo-halo’ (meaning ‘mixed’) experience: Not just beach, for which the country is most famous.”
    Best time to go: “It’s a tropical country, so the Philippines is hot and humid year round. Avoid the rainy season from June to October and come from December to February when the country is at its coolest.”
    Average flight price:

    Manila: $1,296
    Cebu City: $1,446
    Angeles City: $1,461

    Tunisia

    Sidi Bou Said, a town in northern Tunisia.
    Max Shen | Moment | Getty Images

    Recommended by: Sofia Markovich, owner of Sofia’s Travel
    Why to visit: “Tunisia is home to some of the world’s most well-preserved Roman ruins, including the iconic El Jem Amphitheatre, a UNESCO World Heritage site that rivals Rome’s Colosseum in grandeur. Carthage, once a powerful city-state, showcases the remnants of an ancient civilization that shaped Mediterranean history.
    “From the rolling dunes of the Sahara Desert to the pristine beaches of Hammamet, Sussa and Djerba, the country offers a variety of settings for adventure and relaxation. Matmata’s troglodyte homes, famously featured in Star Wars films, add a touch of cinematic wonder to the experience.”
    “Tunisia’s cuisine is a highlight that captivates food lovers. With its bold flavors and Mediterranean influences, dishes like brik (a savory pastry), couscous and harissa-infused stews offer an authentic taste of the region. The country’s burgeoning wine industry adds to its allure.”

    Amphitheatre of El Jem in Tunisia.
    Westend61 | Westend61 | Getty Images

    Can’t-miss: “Sidi Bou Said, with its white-washed houses and blue doors; and Carthage.”
    Best time to go: “Tunisia is great to visit year-round”:

    Spring (March-May): “Warm, ideal for exploring ruins and nature.”
    Summer (June-August): “Hot, perfect for beaches but avoid inland heat.”
    Autumn (September-November): “Mild, great for both beaches and culture.”
    Winter (December-February): “Cool, best for the Sahara and fewer crowds.” 

    Average flight price: $1,360 to Tunis

    Uzbekistan

    Bibi Khanum Mosque in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.
    Izzet Keribar | Stone | Getty Images

    Recommended by: Jonathan Alder, CEO of Jonathan’s Travels
    Why to visit: “This incredible melting pot of cultures is one of the most stunning destinations in the world, with architecture, history and nature that would surprise even the most experienced traveler. 
    “Its cuisine — a melting pot of Persian, Indian, Italian, and Chinese with hints of Russian — is a foodie’s dream. Once the heart of the Silk Road, the architecture doesn’t look like anything else you’ve ever seen. I love to start in the capital of Tashkent, which is a modern metropolis, then head to the ancient side of the country at the far end of the desert to step back in time. The mosque of Samarkand is one of the most incredible architectural highlights you’ll see in your life.
    “Getting out of the cities, you can head into the mountains, which are essentially the back of the Himalayas, for incredible nature and green valleys outside of the stark, dramatic desert that you get for most of the rest of the country.”

    The Old Town in the City of Bukhara, Uzbekistan.
    Mlenny | E+ | Getty Images

    Can’t-miss: “Samarkand. This was once the capital of the Silk Road, the crossing point for all trade routes between Europe and Asia. The sites here are the biggest in the country and some of the top highlights.”
    When to go: “Spring and fall. The summers are quite hot and the winters get very cold. You can also make this a ski destination in the winter and combine it with the rest of the country.”
    Average flight price:

    Tashkent: $1,470
    Samarkand: $2,226

    Western Australia

    James Price Point, Western Australia.
    Luke Mackenzie | Moment | Getty Images

    Recommended by: Kemi Wells-Conrad, founder and president of Wells Luxury Travel
    Why to visit: “Everyone typically thinks of Sydney and the East Coast of Australia — and don’t get me wrong, it is a beautiful coastline. But I have always been a huge fan of Western Australia. It is incredibly diverse, and the landscapes are truly magnificent.
    “Perth is your starting point and known as one of the most isolated cities in the world. There is world-class wine further south in Margaret River. The coast is filled with some of the most beautiful beaches in the world, such as Monkey Mia and Ningaloo Reef, which also are teeming with amazing marine life. The Kimberleys are wild, rugged and unique.”

    Bungle Bungles, beehive-shaped sandstone towers in Purnululu National Park, in Eastern Kimberleys, Western Australia.
    Michael Runkel | Imagebroker | Getty Images

    Can’t-miss: “Ningaloo Reef. Forget the crowds of the Great Barrier Reef out of Cairns — imagine a pristine reef with no crowds. You can also swim with whale sharks here March to August. The luxury glamping experience at Sal Salis is a unique experience.”
    When to go: “April to September. This is the sweet spot, their ‘winter.’ The temperatures are mild, however still much warmer than our northern hemisphere winter. And it would allow you to travel further north to the Kimberleys — outside of their wet season and before it heats up again from October on.”
    Average flight price:

    Perth: $2,043
    Broome: $3,094 More

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    Crash investigators looking at altitude, communication and staffing before helicopter collision with plane

    The NTSB is continuing its investigation into how an American Airlines regional jetliner collided midair with a Black Hawk military helicopter.
    Altitude, staffing and communication are some of the aspects that investigators will evaluate.
    The crash killed all 67 people on board the two aircraft, the worst U.S. airline crash since 2001.

    Search and rescue teams work in the aftermath of the collision of American Eagle flight 5342 and a Black Hawk helicopter that crashed into the Potomac River, with the Capitol dome in the background, as seen from Virginia, U.S., Jan. 30, 2025. 
    Carlos Barria | Reuters

    WASHINGTON — How an Army Black Hawk helicopter collided with American Airlines jetliner in a deadly crash over the Potomac River on Wednesday night is still unknown, but key questions are emerging, including about the altitude of the military helicopter.
    Crash investigators recovered a flight recorder from the Sikorsky H-60 helicopter, adding to evidence they will comb through, which already includes interviews with air traffic controllers, including the one on duty at the time of the crash, and the two recorders from the airplane, National Transportation Safety Board member Todd Inman said Friday.

    Barges are en route to lift the large pieces of the CRJ-700 from the Potomac River on Saturday, Inman said at a briefing.
    All 64 people on American Flight 5342 and the three aboard the helicopter were killed in the fireball collision near the Washington, D.C.’s Reagan National Airport, marking the deadliest U.S. air crash since 2001.
    Forty-one bodies have been recovered from the crash site, Fire and EMS Chief John Donnelly said at a press conference Friday. Of those, 28 have been positively identified.
    “We have in aviation what’s called a ‘Swiss cheese approach,’ wherein if something fails, a backup should catch it, multiple layers of redundancy,” Inman said. “It’s been a very long time since we’ve had a major aviation incident in the United States and that’s why it’s one of the safest forms of transportation in the country.”
    The PSA Airlines Bombardier CRJ-700 aircraft was flying at about 300 feet on final approach into Reagan National’s Runway 33 shortly before 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday when it collided with the Black Hawk helicopter.

    PSA Airlines is one of American’s subsidiaries that flies regional routes, flights marketed as American Eagle.

    Emergency personnel work near the site of the crash, with the U.S. Capitol in the background, after American Eagle flight 5342 collided with a Black Hawk helicopter while approaching Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport and crashed in the Potomac River, U.S. January 30, 2025. 
    Nathan Howard | Reuters

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the helicopter was on an annual proficiency training flight.
    According to Federal Aviation Administration rules, helicopters, which regularly cross through and around Washington, between military bases, the Pentagon and other locations, must fly in the area close to the airport at a maximum of 200 feet.
    “In D.C., it’s kind of a unique environment,” Inman said at a briefing Thursday. He noted that there are helicopter zones, or tracks, in Washington. “This one was transitioning from track one to four as part of their normal procedure. If you live in D.C., you see a lot of helicopters going down into this area. So there’s a very well-defined system.”

    Read more about the American Airlines plane collision with an Army helicopter

    The FAA will restrict helicopter traffic around the Reagan National Airport area, with some exceptions for medical evacuation and law enforcement operations, Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy said on X Friday.
    The airspace is some of the most congested in the country and Reagan National says its main runway is the busiest in the U.S.

    AFP, Flightradar, CNBC

    While the investigation is ongoing, two out of three runways are closed at the airport because of their proximity to the crash area. Terry Liercke, vice president and airport manager, told the press Friday that he expects those closures could last for about a week.
    Officials at the airport said more than 100 flights had been canceled Friday, citing the runway closures and bad weather.
    “As you turn to align with the runway, your concentration is on the flight path to get on the runway quickly and get the airplane stopped,” said John Cox, a retired airline pilot and aviation safety consultant.
    The NTSB is leading the investigation into the collision that ended in a fireball. The agency said it is still gathering information and that it is too early to draw conclusions.
    “It’s not that we don’t have information. We do have information,” said NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy. “We have substantial amounts of information. We need to verify information. We need to take our time to make sure it is accurate.”
    The NTSB also recovered flight data and cockpit voice recorders from the passenger jet. The boxes were taken to NTSB labs for evaluation, the agency said.

    An NTSB investigator works on the black box of American Eagle flight 5342, which was involved in a collision with a Black Hawk helicopter, at an unknown location in this undated handout image released on January 30, 2025. 
    NTSB | Via Reuters

    President Donald Trump on Friday wrote on Truth Social that the helicopter “was flying too high, by a lot. It was far above the 200 foot limit. That’s not really too complicated to understand, is it???”
    Hegseth made a similar statement at a White House briefing Thursday.
    “Tragically, last night a mistake was made,” he said. “There was some sort of an elevation issue that we have immediately begun investigating at the DoD and Army level.”
    Both statements were unusual in the wake of a crash and the early stages of an airline accident investigation.
    The accident ends a decade-and-a-half period of air safety in the U.S., which hasn’t seen a fatal commercial crash since 2009, even though passenger traffic has increased by more than 35% to records. That crash prompted a host of stricter pilot training and rest standards.
    Shortages of air traffic controllers has been a concern for years, and a spate of close calls at U.S. airports have drawn scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators.

    (EDITORS NOTE: Image contains graphic content) In this U.S. Coast Guard handout, the Coast Guard investigates aircraft wreckage on the Potomac River on Jan. 30, 2025 in Washington, DC. 
    Petty Officer 1st Class Brandon Giles | U.S. Coast Guard | Handout | Getty Images

    Staffing at Reagan National the night of the crash wasn’t normal for the amount of traffic and time of day on the night of the crash, according to a preliminary FAA safety report on the collision, NBC News reported on Thursday.
    Citing a source, NBC said the airport tower usually has a controller who focuses on helicopter traffic, though FAA guidelines allow for that position to be combined with another controller’s position, so one controller controls both airplanes and helicopters. The FAA didn’t respond to a request for comment on the report.
    NBC News reported on Friday, citing a source familiar with the investigation that a supervisor at the Reagan National tower let a controller leave their shift early. 
    Inman said on Friday that investigators will look back at air traffic controllers’ past 72 hours or even weeks.
    “We’ll look at their training, their hiring, everything, what they probably ate that day,” he said. “But it is not one point that tells us everything. It’s layered into a lot of other information that’s very critical.”

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    Here’s how tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico may impact U.S. consumers

    President Donald Trump is imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China starting Saturday, the White House said.
    Tariffs will likely result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, both directly and indirectly, economists say.
    Tariffs are a tax on foreign imports that are paid by the U.S. businesses importing those products. The businesses will likely pass those costs to customers, economists said.

    President Donald Trump on Jan. 27, 2025 in Doral, Florida.
    Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    President Donald Trump has repeatedly discussed imposing tariffs, both during the campaign and since taking office, and the first tranche, on goods from Canada, China and Mexico will take effect Feb. 1, the White House confirmed Friday.
    While there are still some unknowns, one thing is clear, economists said: U.S. consumers should brace for a negative financial impact.

    It’s “hard to find positives” from tariffs, said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, whose research specializes in trade with China and global supply chains.
    Trump plans to put 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% duty on China, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Friday.
    China, Mexico and Canada are the three largest trading partners with the U.S., as measured by imported goods. They supplied about $536 billion, $455 billion, and $437 billion of goods, respectively, to the U.S. in 2022, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

    Tariffs are a tax on foreign imports. U.S. businesses that import goods pay that tax to the federal government.
    Many businesses will funnel those extra costs to customers — either directly or indirectly — which is why tariffs generally trigger higher prices for consumers, economists said.

    “Part of these tariffs will be passed on to consumers,” Lovely said.
    Americans could also find they have fewer choices for brands and products stocked on store shelves, she said.

    Exemptions may ‘limit the damage’ to consumers

    There are still many question marks over the looming tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico.
    For example, it’s unclear if any imports will be exempt. Trump suggested Thursday night, for example, that Canadian oil might be exempt. The White House said the tariffs will be open for public inspection on Saturday.
    Discussions around such specifics are “ongoing,” a White House official told CNBC on Friday morning.

    “There are always exemptions and carve-outs,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
    Trump might try to “limit the damage to the U.S. consumer” via those exemptions, Zandi said. For example, he could choose not to impose duties on apparel from China, avocados from Mexico or cheese from Quebec, he said.

    Economic impact

    The White House said tariffs and Trump’s broader economic agenda will benefit the U.S. economy.
    White House spokesman Kush Desai said tariffs Trump imposed in his first term — along with tax cuts, deregulation and energy policy — “resulted in historic job, wage, and investment growth with no inflation,” and that in his second term Trump will use tariffs to “usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for American industry and workers.”
    Economists, however, disagree.
    More from Personal Finance:What federal workers need to consider when evaluating offer to resign2025 is a ‘renter’s market,’ housing economist saysConcert ticket prices have soared, but music fans don’t seem to care
    A 25% Canada-Mexico tariff and 10% China tariff would raise about $1.3 trillion in revenue through 2035 on a net basis, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated. That revenue may be used to partially offset the cost of tax cuts, a package that might cost more than $5 trillion over 10 years.
    However, a 10% additional tariff on China would shrink the U.S. economy by $55 billion during the Trump administration’s second term, assuming China retaliates with its own tariffs, according to an analysis by Warwick McKibbin and Marcus Noland, economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    A 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would cause a $200 billion reduction in U.S. gross domestic product, they found.

    Meanwhile, economists expect more tariffs in the future.
    On the campaign trail, Trump floated a 10% or 20% universal tariff on all imports and a tariff of at least 60% on Chinese goods, for example.
    A 20% worldwide tariff and a 60% levy on Chinese goods would raise costs by $3,000 in 2025 for the average U.S. household, according to an October analysis by the Tax Policy Center.
    “Broad-based, universal tariffs and the damage they will do is not really a debate,” Zandi said. “They will do damage. It’s just a question of how much and to whom.”

    How tariffs may impact consumers

    Consumers could pay for tariffs both directly and indirectly, economists said.
    Tariffs on China would likely have the largest direct impact on consumers, as the bulk of what China exports to the U.S. is consumer goods such as apparel, toys and electronics, Zandi said.
    China is the “dominant supplier” of toys and sports equipment to the U.S., and provides 40% of its footwear imports and 25% of its electronics and textiles, according to a recent analysis by PIIE economists.
    Mexico and Canada tariffs would also “put upward pressure on food prices,” according to PIIE economists.
    The nations are “important sources” of vegetables, accounting for 47% of total U.S. imports, and prepared foodstuffs, 42%. Transportation equipment and machinery, electronics and fuel are other sectors that stand to be most affected, they found.
    “The U.S. imports roughly 40% of its crude oil, with Canada as the dominant supplier,” Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a financial consulting firm, said in a written statement.
    “If oil is hit with tariffs, the impact could hit energy markets, pushing up costs for businesses and consumers,” Green wrote.
    However, domestic energy producers, certain U.S. manufacturers and other industries “could see short-term gains from reduced competition,” he added.
    Indirectly, U.S. producers might raise their prices because they face less foreign competition for certain goods, Lydia Cox, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said during a recent webinar.
    U.S. companies that use tariffed goods to manufacture their products might also raise prices for downstream goods, Cox said. For example, steel tariffs might lead to higher prices for cars, heavy machinery and other products that use steel.

    Tariffs ‘create a lot of collateral damage’

    Other nations might also respond with retaliatory tariffs that start a trade war, which might cause U.S. producers to lose sales abroad, she said.
    “Unlike Canada and Mexico, for which retaliation would be inconceivable, China has retaliated in the past and would likely do so again,” PIIE economists wrote recently.
    Further, tariffs may have the unintended consequence of destroying jobs, economists said.
    Tariffs’ ability to create U.S. jobs is “vastly, vastly overstated,” said Lovely of PIIE.
    Take steel, for example. There are 80 workers in industries that use steel as an input for every one job that produces steel, Cox found in a recent paper.
    Tariffs create “a lot of collateral damage along the way,” which is why economists warn against broad-based use, Cox said. More

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    FAA to restrict helicopter traffic around D.C. airport after fatal airplane collision

    The FAA will restrict helicopter traffic around Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.
    American Eagle Flight 5342 was seconds away from landing at Reagan National Airport when it collided with an Army helicopter on Wednesday night.

    The air traffic control at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport is pictured, in the aftermath of the collision of American Eagle flight 5342 and a Black Hawk helicopter that crashed into the Potomac River, as seen from Virginia on Jan. 30, 2025.
    Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

    WASHINGTON — The Federal Aviation Administration will restrict helicopter traffic around Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Washington, D.C., after the fatal collision of Army Black Hawk helicopter with an American Airlines jetliner earlier this week, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Friday.
    “Today’s decision will immediately help secure the airspace near Reagan Airport, ensuring the safety of airplane and helicopter traffic,” Duffy said in a post on social media site X. “The American people deserve full confidence in our aviation system and today’s action is a significant step towards restoring that trust.”

    The restricted area includes Memorial Bridge to South Capitol Street Bridge, excluding the Tidal Basin; Haines Point to Wilson Bridge; and the airspace above the airport, Duffy said in the post.
    National Transportation Safety Board member Todd Inman said at a briefing Thursday afternoon that helicopters operate in zones, or tracks, in Washington. “This one was transitioning from track one to four as part of their normal procedure,” he said. “If you live in D.C., you see a lot of helicopters going down into this area. So there’s a very well-defined system.”
    American Eagle Flight 5342 was seconds away from landing at Reagan National Airport when it collided with the Army helicopter on Wednesday night. All 64 people on board the plane and all three people on the helicopter died. It was the first deadly commercial airline crash in the U.S. in more than 15 years and the deadliest since 2001.
    American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said Thursday that it was not clear “why the military aircraft came into the path” of its aircraft. On Friday, Isom thanked President Donald Trump “for his leadership on aviation safety. I applaud him, Secretary Duffy and the Administration for taking quick and decisive action today to restrict helicopter activity around DCA.”
    Investigators on Friday continued their investigation, looking at aspects such as the altitude of the aircraft, staffing and communication with air traffic controllers.

    The American Airlines plane, a regional CRJ700 that was arriving from Wichita, Kansas, was flying at about 300 feet on its final approach when it collided with the Black Hawk.
    According to FAA rules, helicopters, which routinely cross through and around Washington, between military bases, the Pentagon and other locations, must fly in the area close to the airport at a maximum of 200 feet.

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    New York City office demand is finally back to normal

    Demand for New York City office space has finally returned to pre-pandemic levels.
    During the fourth quarter, office demand in the city jumped 25% from the year before, according to VTS.
    Nationally, demand in the fourth quarter was up 12% from the previous quarter.

    The Empire State Building, the Chrysler Building and One Vanderbilt are seen among other buildings in midtown Manhattan in New York City on Jan. 11, 2024.
    Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

    Demand for New York City office space has finally returned to pre-pandemic levels, driven by an influx of new workers as well as a drive by employers to see current workers return to the office.
    During the fourth quarter, office demand in the city jumped 25% from the year before, according to VTS, which measures demand through unique new tenant tours of properties. The measure is an early indicator of new leasing.

    “New York City’s shift back to in-office work reflects the city’s unique cultural and economic dynamics, especially in the finance and tech sectors,” said Nick Romito, CEO of VTS, in a news release.
    SL Green Realty Corp., a real estate investment trust, or REIT, concentrated in Manhattan office and retail, released earnings last week, and while it missed revenue expectations, analysts pointed to further tightening in the office market as leasing demand accelerates.
    On a call with analysts, SL Green Realty CEO Marc Holliday noted that the city’s Office of Management and Budget is forecasting about 38,000 new office-using jobs in 2025, mostly stemming from finance, business services and information technology.
    “That translates into millions and millions of square feet of new absorption for each one of those bodies, and those are not work-from-home bodies for the most part,” said Holliday. “Combine that with the fact that on-site attendance is rising every month as companies are calling people back to the office four and five days a week. We expect to see very strong demand for office space throughout 2025,” Holliday added.
    Holliday also noted SL Green ended the year at 92.5% occupancy, and is projecting more than 93% leased occupancy over the coming year.

    Tech giant IBM recently signed a 92,663-square-foot expansion lease with SL Green at One Madison Avenue, increasing IBM’s total footprint at the property to more than 362,000 square feet.
    “The expansion of IBM’s flagship office at One Madison Avenue reaffirms a long-standing commitment to advance the technology sector in New York City and New York State, with a vibrant and collaborative workspace designed to bring employees, clients and partners together from around the world,” said Joanne Wright, IBM senior vice president for transformation and operations, in a release.
    New York is the clear winner in the office recovery, but VTS notes other improving markets. San Francisco saw a 32% annual growth rate in demand, a faster growth rate than New York’s, though it was starting at a much weaker position. Seattle and Chicago saw growth rates of around 15% each as employers in those cities increasingly embrace hybrid work models that require consistent in-office presence.
    “The data shows that while some markets, like New York City, are rapidly returning to traditional office settings, the national picture reflects slow but steady progress,” said Ryan Masiello, chief strategy officer of VTS.
    Nationally, demand in the fourth quarter was up 12% from the previous quarter. Historically, demand declines from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.
    “This growth is notable — not only for defying seasonal expectations, but for emerging in the midst of a cooling labor market. Businesses appear more willing to invest in office space despite economic uncertainty, signaling a shift in confidence and long-term planning,” Masiello said.

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    Here’s what Trump’s tariff threats look like on the ground in China

    President Donald Trump is threatening to impose 10% tariffs on Chinese goods on Saturday, and manufacturers in China are figuring out how to cope.
    The duties could not only hurt Chinese exporters but also may raise costs for U.S. consumers.
    Some business owners who spoke to CNBC said they are considering moving manufacturing to different countries, passing on higher costs to U.S. consumers or leaving the U.S. market altogether.

    As President Donald Trump threatens to impose his first tranche of tariffs on the world Saturday, Chinese manufacturers are bracing for impact.
    Though Trump is proposing his biggest initial swing at Canada and Mexico with a proposed 25% tariff, the U.S. president still has China on his radar. After a report that the administration could delay at least some of the duties until March 1, the White House said Friday that Trump will follow through on plans to slap 10% tariffs on imports from China on Saturday. On the campaign trail, he threatened tariffs on Chinese-made goods of 60% or more.

    Trump has contended tariffs boost U.S. manufacturing and job growth, and early in his second term has used the threats to gain leverage in policy negotiations. Even so, if Trump imposes the levies, they could raise prices for U.S. consumers on everything from furniture to electronics.
    In China, new duties could damage exporters who rely on the U.S. market. On a recent trip to the manufacturing belt of Guangdong province, CNBC found factory owners preparing for the tariff threat. Here are three main takeaways:

    Tariff threat already raising prices for U.S. consumers 

    Hoping to beat Trump’s tariffs, furniture seller Harry Li is doubling the number of products he ships to the U.S. and stockpiling them in warehouses there.
    He expects the strategy will force him to raise prices as much as 10% — no matter what Trump’s tariffs turn out to be. 
    He sells four out of five of his tables and other large furnishings to American consumers.

    “I have to ship them in advance and take on more risk,” he said at his Foshan factory. 
    His company Tianyiled plans to keep the extra inventory in the U.S. until Trump’s tariff plan for China becomes clearer.

    Chinese factories adopt coping strategies

    In addition to stockpiling, Li is considering other ways to avoid the border taxes.
    “One thing we can do is to pick those products not on the tariff list and export them to the U.S. instead,” he said. 
    In the nearby industrial city of Guangzhou, water purifier maker Zheng Yu is scouring the globe to find a new production base to supply the U.S. outside of China.
    He plans to set up assembly lines in a third country, buying some equipment and components from China while hiring locally for certain jobs. 
    Zheng’s company Tesran is considering Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico as manufacturing bases, but is leaning toward Dubai even though costs will be 30% higher than in China.
    “The domestic market is too competitive. We have been wanting to jump out of it for some time,” he said. “Trump’s tariffs gave us the final push.”
    The Tesran founder is also already in touch with his U.S. clients to discuss splitting the tariffs. He is hoping his partners will take on at least half of the cost.

    Chinese factories have a breaking point – which could lead to less choice for U.S. shoppers

    All the businesses CNBC spoke to had a breaking point at which it would no longer make sense to sell to the U.S. The tariff thresholds ranged from 20 to 60%, and depended on the industry and the size of a company’s margins.
    Water purifier maker Zheng said another wild card is whether President Trump unleashes proposed universal tariffs that, in his case, would raise costs for Dubai. 
    “Then the U.S. is out,” he said.
    Across Guangzhou, Leng Rong, who makes skin care products, is worried he might have to stop exporting to the U.S. completely.
    His goods got hit with tariffs north of 20% during Trump’s first term and it caused big losses for his company, Keni.
    With his thin margins, Leng is hoping he can pass the cost of any tariff to his customers.
    “In the past, we all felt the U.S. market was the greatest market that everyone wanted to sell to. But with all the uncertainties and unfriendly decisions, the U.S. is less attractive now,” Leng said at his Guangzhou factory. “It’s a real pity.” More